Historical trends
1980s: The median age of first-time homebuyers was around 29 years old.
2021: The median age was 33.
2022: The median age rose to 36.
2023: The median age was 35.
2024: The median age reached 38, a record high at the time.
2025: The median age is now 40
I'm sure interest rates have NOTHING to do with this....
Average interest rate in 1980.............18.45%
2021........2.65%
2022........5.34%
2023.........7.79%
So while they are trending up they are still nowhere close to what they were in 1980. Not sure if you are making the point you think you are making.
It 's less a problem of interest rates and more the fact that house prices have way outpaced incomes since 1980.
Which is caused because housing supply is lower relative to total population. There are two big reasons for this
1) Our nation tends to build 'outward' because the USA is so vast. We would need to build 'up' to make a dent in the shortage
2) We would also need to encourage those that have been at the same home for many years to be willing to sell. And they aren't going to do that if they have to pay capital gains on them. I own a couple homes. Would be happy to sell one if I wasn't going to pay gains on it. So if you want the supply to go up, the govt should give me a better option than paying gain tax because the current limit isn't high enough. We will hold it until our kids inherit it at the new cost basis, and no taxes need to be paid.
Since I'm in real estate, I'll tell you home ownership is not all it's cracked up to be. My kids will say I paid (fictionally) $1M for my house and it's worth $2.2M. You made X% on it. Well not really. The interest on an 80% loan of $800k at 3.5% means I really paid ~$1.25M. I also had to keep up with the times and put $350K in it for roofs, HVACs, renovations, etc . And taxes and insurance are like $17K per year for 20 years that we've been there, so that's another $340K. So I really paid like $1.9M for my $2.2M house (less interest deductions). What's that rate of return over 20 years? Not gonna figure it own, but RE appreciates at about 3% per year. While the market appreciates at 7%+. I figure it all evens out and owning a home is about pride of ownership more than a good financial decision.
I think #2 above is a big deal. If you are an elderly person with one home that you bought in 1970 for $50k. And it's worth $1M now and you have no paperwork for how much improvements you made over the years. You are looking at a huge gains. So why leave your 4 bedroom house and pay taxes and buy a lesser place for a lot of money. Those people are staying put. We aren't talking the uber rich either. We're talking John and Jane Smith living next door to us all. Get rid of the home sale tax, and maybe they move. The uber rich don't care about this. Middle class does