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"Notes on Being a Man" (2 Viewers)

And did we have African American billionaires 100 years ago? 50 years ago? Openly gay billionaires? Female billionaires? How about 25 years ago?

No. We are making progress as a people. But sure, sell you're bad news and warn us all how we're screwed. Nobody is buying a book on how good we're doing.
If you think more billionaires is progress as a people... sure?

But I think the argument here is that more and more wealth is being transferred away from the younger generations.

Younger generations today have cars and phones and food and no prospect of a military draft. They also trade stocks and buy Crypto thanks to Reddit. Wealth inequality hasn't damaged younger generations the way it did in the past. Nobody is enlisting in the military today. That was a HUGE option for prior generations who were rudderless and absent options. Why do you think that is?
 
No! Absolutely not! You think it was better during slavery? Jim Crow? Buddy, pick up a history book and read about the Great Depression. You think we have it worse today? The age of Rockefeller and Carnegie and Ford were way way worse in terms of income inequality.
The disparity between CEO pay and worker pay is at an all time high. The ****ing federal minimum wage hasn't changed since 2009 and is at way below poverty levels of $7.25
 
And did we have African American billionaires 100 years ago? 50 years ago? Openly gay billionaires? Female billionaires? How about 25 years ago?

No. We are making progress as a people. But sure, sell you're bad news and warn us all how we're screwed. Nobody is buying a book on how good we're doing.
If you think more billionaires is progress as a people... sure?

But I think the argument here is that more and more wealth is being transferred away from the younger generations.

Younger generations today have cars and phones and food and no prospect of a military draft. They also trade stocks and buy Crypto thanks to Reddit. Wealth inequality hasn't damaged younger generations the way it did in the past. Nobody is enlisting in the military today. That was a HUGE option for prior generations who were rudderless and absent options. Why do you think that is?
I'm Canadian so I can't really talk about why people join the military, we don't really do it and it's anecdotal anyway.

Yes they can trade crypto but they can't buy a house. And I think wealth inequality is damaging the upcoming generation, that's the whole point.

Wages haven't increased in line with housing prices. It's great for those already in the game. It's no so much for the younger generations. That's the point of the stats of more and more people living at home longer. And renting and co-habiting and multi -family homes etc...
 
Younger singles are also more likely than older singles to say they are currently looking for dates and/or a relationship. Some 57% of unpartnered adults under 50 say this, compared with 36% of those 50 to 64 and 16% of those 65 and older.

Boy, groundbreaking stuff here. Guys over 50 and 65 don't want a relationship? I'm 52 and in one and I don't want one anymore. And this flies in the face of the original premise that younger men don't want relationships.
You seem really bothered by this. This doesn’t mean your boys will suffer this fate. You don’t have to try and invalidate it.

I am not trying to invalidate it. I am invalidating it and I'm invalidating because it is junk science absent any empirical data to back it up. You’ve brought nothing to the table to change my mind and no, I'm not buying this mountebank's book.
 
@General Malaise needs a @shuke eat-off to suppress all this anger

I'm not angry I'm just tired of accepting ******** as truth. Figured a guy like you would agree but maybe you also watch Good Morning America and just accept all stats being peddled to sell a book.
:lmao:
I don't even have a television in my house. And I love you. But you need to show some love for the downtrodden

The downtrodden of today are doing better than the downtrodden of the past. My love won't alter anything.

Have you ever picked up a history book and read what it was like for the downtrodden? I've got some good ones I can send you.
 
Historical trends
1980s: The median age of first-time homebuyers was around 29 years old.
2021: The median age was 33.
2022: The median age rose to 36.
2023: The median age was 35.
2024: The median age reached 38, a record high at the time.
2025: The median age is now 40
 
And did we have African American billionaires 100 years ago? 50 years ago? Openly gay billionaires? Female billionaires? How about 25 years ago?

No. We are making progress as a people. But sure, sell you're bad news and warn us all how we're screwed. Nobody is buying a book on how good we're doing.
If you think more billionaires is progress as a people... sure?

But I think the argument here is that more and more wealth is being transferred away from the younger generations.

Younger generations today have cars and phones and food and no prospect of a military draft. They also trade stocks and buy Crypto thanks to Reddit. Wealth inequality hasn't damaged younger generations the way it did in the past. Nobody is enlisting in the military today. That was a HUGE option for prior generations who were rudderless and absent options. Why do you think that is?
I'm Canadian so I can't really talk about why people join the military, we don't really do it and it's anecdotal anyway.

Yes they can trade crypto but they can't buy a house. And I think wealth inequality is damaging the upcoming generation, that's the whole point.

Wages haven't increased in line with housing prices. It's great for those already in the game. It's no so much for the younger generations. That's the point of the stats of more and more people living at home longer. And renting and co-habiting and multi -family homes etc...

You own two houses....why don't you sell one to a younger family at a discount? You know, since you're all magnanimous and hate income inequality.
 
And did we have African American billionaires 100 years ago? 50 years ago? Openly gay billionaires? Female billionaires? How about 25 years ago?

No. We are making progress as a people. But sure, sell you're bad news and warn us all how we're screwed. Nobody is buying a book on how good we're doing.
If you think more billionaires is progress as a people... sure?

But I think the argument here is that more and more wealth is being transferred away from the younger generations.

Younger generations today have cars and phones and food and no prospect of a military draft. They also trade stocks and buy Crypto thanks to Reddit. Wealth inequality hasn't damaged younger generations the way it did in the past. Nobody is enlisting in the military today. That was a HUGE option for prior generations who were rudderless and absent options. Why do you think that is?
I'm Canadian so I can't really talk about why people join the military, we don't really do it and it's anecdotal anyway.

Yes they can trade crypto but they can't buy a house. And I think wealth inequality is damaging the upcoming generation, that's the whole point.

Wages haven't increased in line with housing prices. It's great for those already in the game. It's no so much for the younger generations. That's the point of the stats of more and more people living at home longer. And renting and co-habiting and multi -family homes etc...

You own two houses....why don't you sell one to a younger family at a discount? You know, since you're all magnanimous and hate income inequality.
Hey man, you're obviously worked up about this for whatever reason but we're talking about big picture trends and how they affect the younger generations. No need to be personal.
 
Historical trends
1980s: The median age of first-time homebuyers was around 29 years old.
2021: The median age was 33.
2022: The median age rose to 36.
2023: The median age was 35.
2024: The median age reached 38, a record high at the time.
2025: The median age is now 40

I'm sure interest rates have NOTHING to do with this....
 
Historical trends
1980s: The median age of first-time homebuyers was around 29 years old.
2021: The median age was 33.
2022: The median age rose to 36.
2023: The median age was 35.
2024: The median age reached 38, a record high at the time.
2025: The median age is now 40

I'm sure interest rates have NOTHING to do with this....
They do, but it's all part of the uphill battle for younger generations
 
And did we have African American billionaires 100 years ago? 50 years ago? Openly gay billionaires? Female billionaires? How about 25 years ago?

No. We are making progress as a people. But sure, sell you're bad news and warn us all how we're screwed. Nobody is buying a book on how good we're doing.
If you think more billionaires is progress as a people... sure?

But I think the argument here is that more and more wealth is being transferred away from the younger generations.

Younger generations today have cars and phones and food and no prospect of a military draft. They also trade stocks and buy Crypto thanks to Reddit. Wealth inequality hasn't damaged younger generations the way it did in the past. Nobody is enlisting in the military today. That was a HUGE option for prior generations who were rudderless and absent options. Why do you think that is?
I'm Canadian so I can't really talk about why people join the military, we don't really do it and it's anecdotal anyway.

Yes they can trade crypto but they can't buy a house. And I think wealth inequality is damaging the upcoming generation, that's the whole point.

Wages haven't increased in line with housing prices. It's great for those already in the game. It's no so much for the younger generations. That's the point of the stats of more and more people living at home longer. And renting and co-habiting and multi -family homes etc...

You own two houses....why don't you sell one to a younger family at a discount? You know, since you're all magnanimous and hate income inequality.
Hey man, you're obviously worked up about this for whatever reason but we're talking about big picture trends and how they affect the younger generations. No need to be personal.

You offered up personal information and then went off about the plight of younger generations so answer the question.
 
Historical trends
1980s: The median age of first-time homebuyers was around 29 years old.
2021: The median age was 33.
2022: The median age rose to 36.
2023: The median age was 35.
2024: The median age reached 38, a record high at the time.
2025: The median age is now 40

I'm sure interest rates have NOTHING to do with this....
They do, but it's all part of the uphill battle for younger generations

How old were you when you bought your first home? 2nd?
 
And did we have African American billionaires 100 years ago? 50 years ago? Openly gay billionaires? Female billionaires? How about 25 years ago?

No. We are making progress as a people. But sure, sell you're bad news and warn us all how we're screwed. Nobody is buying a book on how good we're doing.
If you think more billionaires is progress as a people... sure?

But I think the argument here is that more and more wealth is being transferred away from the younger generations.

Younger generations today have cars and phones and food and no prospect of a military draft. They also trade stocks and buy Crypto thanks to Reddit. Wealth inequality hasn't damaged younger generations the way it did in the past. Nobody is enlisting in the military today. That was a HUGE option for prior generations who were rudderless and absent options. Why do you think that is?
I'm Canadian so I can't really talk about why people join the military, we don't really do it and it's anecdotal anyway.

Yes they can trade crypto but they can't buy a house. And I think wealth inequality is damaging the upcoming generation, that's the whole point.

Wages haven't increased in line with housing prices. It's great for those already in the game. It's no so much for the younger generations. That's the point of the stats of more and more people living at home longer. And renting and co-habiting and multi -family homes etc...

You own two houses....why don't you sell one to a younger family at a discount? You know, since you're all magnanimous and hate income inequality.
Hey man, you're obviously worked up about this for whatever reason but we're talking about big picture trends and how they affect the younger generations. No need to be personal.

You offered up personal information and then went off about the plight of younger generations so answer the question.
Sure.

We bought the first home when we got married at 26/27 in 2010.

We bought the second home around 2018/19 when I was 35ish? because my wife's mom has worsening dementia and couldn't afford her own home after her husband passed, it's a semi - detached in the same subdivision as our house, so my wife can check in on her and be around the corner if she needs anything. When she inevitably moves into a retirement/nursing home, we'll have to make some decisions.

Any other questions?
 
"For whatever reason".....

Again, I have 5 kids and 4 sons. I have coached boys' sports since 2009 and have watched 1st graders graduate college and become dads. I have had old players come back to coach with me. I have seen a kid graduate college and move to Spain with a million friends. I have seen a kid fail out of college with a million friends and land a full time job paying more than I ever dreamed of making at 21.

I *HATE* the BS crap that comes from egg heads on morning television selling a book suggesting that young men are broken or screwed or hopeless or helpless. Hate it. I won't take it laying down.

So there is my reason. Pisses me off to no end to hear people tell us how worthless and weak the current 20ish year olds are. I won't stand for it because I KNOW a dozen or more of them and they are better - WAY BETTER - than I ever was at that age.

Yes, houses cost more. Yes, technology has changed the way kids date. Guess what? Things change. Houses could very well become affordable again. Plenty of boomers are dying off and rates are coming down. Meanwhile, as I pointed out, young people are using technology to date.
 
And did we have African American billionaires 100 years ago? 50 years ago? Openly gay billionaires? Female billionaires? How about 25 years ago?

No. We are making progress as a people. But sure, sell you're bad news and warn us all how we're screwed. Nobody is buying a book on how good we're doing.
If you think more billionaires is progress as a people... sure?

But I think the argument here is that more and more wealth is being transferred away from the younger generations.

Younger generations today have cars and phones and food and no prospect of a military draft. They also trade stocks and buy Crypto thanks to Reddit. Wealth inequality hasn't damaged younger generations the way it did in the past. Nobody is enlisting in the military today. That was a HUGE option for prior generations who were rudderless and absent options. Why do you think that is?
I'm Canadian so I can't really talk about why people join the military, we don't really do it and it's anecdotal anyway.

Yes they can trade crypto but they can't buy a house. And I think wealth inequality is damaging the upcoming generation, that's the whole point.

Wages haven't increased in line with housing prices. It's great for those already in the game. It's no so much for the younger generations. That's the point of the stats of more and more people living at home longer. And renting and co-habiting and multi -family homes etc...

You own two houses....why don't you sell one to a younger family at a discount? You know, since you're all magnanimous and hate income inequality.
Hey man, you're obviously worked up about this for whatever reason but we're talking about big picture trends and how they affect the younger generations. No need to be personal.

You offered up personal information and then went off about the plight of younger generations so answer the question.
Sure.

We bought the first home when we got married at 26/27 in 2010.

We bought the second home around 2018/19 when I was 35ish? because my wife's mom has worsening dementia and couldn't afford her own home after her husband passed, it's a semi - detached in the same subdivision as our house, so my wife can check in on her and be around the corner if she needs anything. When she inevitably moves into a retirement/nursing home, we'll have to make some decisions.

Any other questions?

Yeah, you gonna sell it at a discount?
 
And did we have African American billionaires 100 years ago? 50 years ago? Openly gay billionaires? Female billionaires? How about 25 years ago?

No. We are making progress as a people. But sure, sell you're bad news and warn us all how we're screwed. Nobody is buying a book on how good we're doing.
If you think more billionaires is progress as a people... sure?

But I think the argument here is that more and more wealth is being transferred away from the younger generations.

Younger generations today have cars and phones and food and no prospect of a military draft. They also trade stocks and buy Crypto thanks to Reddit. Wealth inequality hasn't damaged younger generations the way it did in the past. Nobody is enlisting in the military today. That was a HUGE option for prior generations who were rudderless and absent options. Why do you think that is?
I'm Canadian so I can't really talk about why people join the military, we don't really do it and it's anecdotal anyway.

Yes they can trade crypto but they can't buy a house. And I think wealth inequality is damaging the upcoming generation, that's the whole point.

Wages haven't increased in line with housing prices. It's great for those already in the game. It's no so much for the younger generations. That's the point of the stats of more and more people living at home longer. And renting and co-habiting and multi -family homes etc...

You own two houses....why don't you sell one to a younger family at a discount? You know, since you're all magnanimous and hate income inequality.
Hey man, you're obviously worked up about this for whatever reason but we're talking about big picture trends and how they affect the younger generations. No need to be personal.

You offered up personal information and then went off about the plight of younger generations so answer the question.
Sure.

We bought the first home when we got married at 26/27 in 2010.

We bought the second home around 2018/19 when I was 35ish? because my wife's mom has worsening dementia and couldn't afford her own home after her husband passed, it's a semi - detached in the same subdivision as our house, so my wife can check in on her and be around the corner if she needs anything. When she inevitably moves into a retirement/nursing home, we'll have to make some decisions.

Any other questions?

Yeah, you gonna sell it at a discount?
I've lost a lot of respect for you tonight. Have a good night GM.
 
And did we have African American billionaires 100 years ago? 50 years ago? Openly gay billionaires? Female billionaires? How about 25 years ago?

No. We are making progress as a people. But sure, sell you're bad news and warn us all how we're screwed. Nobody is buying a book on how good we're doing.
If you think more billionaires is progress as a people... sure?

But I think the argument here is that more and more wealth is being transferred away from the younger generations.

Younger generations today have cars and phones and food and no prospect of a military draft. They also trade stocks and buy Crypto thanks to Reddit. Wealth inequality hasn't damaged younger generations the way it did in the past. Nobody is enlisting in the military today. That was a HUGE option for prior generations who were rudderless and absent options. Why do you think that is?
I'm Canadian so I can't really talk about why people join the military, we don't really do it and it's anecdotal anyway.

Yes they can trade crypto but they can't buy a house. And I think wealth inequality is damaging the upcoming generation, that's the whole point.

Wages haven't increased in line with housing prices. It's great for those already in the game. It's no so much for the younger generations. That's the point of the stats of more and more people living at home longer. And renting and co-habiting and multi -family homes etc...

You own two houses....why don't you sell one to a younger family at a discount? You know, since you're all magnanimous and hate income inequality.
Hey man, you're obviously worked up about this for whatever reason but we're talking about big picture trends and how they affect the younger generations. No need to be personal.

You offered up personal information and then went off about the plight of younger generations so answer the question.
Sure.

We bought the first home when we got married at 26/27 in 2010.

We bought the second home around 2018/19 when I was 35ish? because my wife's mom has worsening dementia and couldn't afford her own home after her husband passed, it's a semi - detached in the same subdivision as our house, so my wife can check in on her and be around the corner if she needs anything. When she inevitably moves into a retirement/nursing home, we'll have to make some decisions.

Any other questions?

Yeah, you gonna sell it at a discount?
I've lost a lot of respect for you tonight. Have a good night GM.

Never had any for you so guess we're even.
 
For those interested in some of Gallloway's citations, here's a earlier blog that was likely the seed for this book:

The charts typically list the citation as "Pew Research Center" or "Stanford University" or "College Board". It doesn't give the exact study, but I doubt that they are fabricated. Based on the GMA interview and this blog, I don't think Galloway is a mountebank making up statistics from whole cloth.

One of the best lines in the blog says, "a large and growing cohort of bored, lonely, poorly educated men is a malevolent force in any society, but it’s a truly terrifying one in a society addicted to social media and awash in coarseness and guns." Man, that one feels very prescient to me. He wrote it in 2021.
 
And did we have African American billionaires 100 years ago? 50 years ago? Openly gay billionaires? Female billionaires? How about 25 years ago?

No. We are making progress as a people. But sure, sell you're bad news and warn us all how we're screwed. Nobody is buying a book on how good we're doing.
If you think more billionaires is progress as a people... sure?

But I think the argument here is that more and more wealth is being transferred away from the younger generations.

Younger generations today have cars and phones and food and no prospect of a military draft. They also trade stocks and buy Crypto thanks to Reddit. Wealth inequality hasn't damaged younger generations the way it did in the past. Nobody is enlisting in the military today. That was a HUGE option for prior generations who were rudderless and absent options. Why do you think that is?
I'm Canadian so I can't really talk about why people join the military, we don't really do it and it's anecdotal anyway.

Yes they can trade crypto but they can't buy a house. And I think wealth inequality is damaging the upcoming generation, that's the whole point.

Wages haven't increased in line with housing prices. It's great for those already in the game. It's no so much for the younger generations. That's the point of the stats of more and more people living at home longer. And renting and co-habiting and multi -family homes etc...

You own two houses....why don't you sell one to a younger family at a discount? You know, since you're all magnanimous and hate income inequality.
Hey man, you're obviously worked up about this for whatever reason but we're talking about big picture trends and how they affect the younger generations. No need to be personal.

You offered up personal information and then went off about the plight of younger generations so answer the question.
Sure.

We bought the first home when we got married at 26/27 in 2010.

We bought the second home around 2018/19 when I was 35ish? because my wife's mom has worsening dementia and couldn't afford her own home after her husband passed, it's a semi - detached in the same subdivision as our house, so my wife can check in on her and be around the corner if she needs anything. When she inevitably moves into a retirement/nursing home, we'll have to make some decisions.

Any other questions?

Yeah, you gonna sell it at a discount?
I've lost a lot of respect for you tonight. Have a good night GM.

Never had any for you so guess we're even.
Jesus Christ dude get a grip
 
I don't know if the 40% is accurate but it doesn't sound all that crazy. I remember reading that it is close to 1 out of 3 bars/restaurants don't survive their first year so 40% being closed since 2020 doesn't sound outrageous. I imagine that 40% doesn't take into all the new places that have opened in that timeframe though
Yea, there is responsibility on the person presenting the statistics to use them in a reasonable way. Galloway claimed 40% of bars closing caused a loss of socializing places for young men and women. Even if his statistic were accurate, supposing that rate of bar failure is normal and the total number of bars has actually increased since Covid, then Galloway becomes an untrustworthy source of information.

Meanwhile, there are 50 million people using Bumble, 75 million people using Tinder and 85 million registered users of Ashley Madison. Somebody is getting out there and knocking boots, Mr. Galloway.

We also now have a giant spike in same sex marriages, but I don't think we're supposed to talk about that in here. How refreshing it is that in today's society, that's completely normal and not taboo. I consider it progress that men and women now feel comfortable openly being who they are. Wasn't like that not all that long ago. Hooray for that.

Doom and gloom sells, so on with it. World is going stop spinning soon, I suppose.
Are those dates and relationship building introductions? Or drunken swipes late night in a bar? No one reads anything on a profile, they see the picture and swipe left or right if they think they're hot.
 
Nobody is enlisting in the military today. That was a HUGE option for prior generations who were rudderless and absent options. Why do you think that is?
It's a combination of factors. Some of the bigger ones are the overall decline in national pride, the new reality of endless wars, and the declining fitness of Americans. It's being sold as an unappealing option by prior generations and that corresponds to loss of interest.
 
Nobody is enlisting in the military today. That was a HUGE option for prior generations who were rudderless and absent options. Why do you think that is?
It's a combination of factors. Some of the bigger ones are the overall decline in national pride, the new reality of endless wars, and the declining fitness of Americans. It's being sold as an unappealing option by prior generations and that corresponds to loss of interest.

Hopefully, this isn’t considered forbidden to talk about but I’d say mental health, PTSD and vet health care issues can’t be appealing to young people. On top of the things you said.
 
I think it's safe today that, for a variety of reasons, young men today have it very difficult.

With online dating woman have the ability to essentially have their pick of the litter. Men face a high level of difficulty to even get in the proverbial door. Prior generations met at Church, at work, at the bar or the bowling alley or the soda shop (looking at you old boomers).

Nowadays, a lot of jobs are remote, younger kids statistically don't drink as much (link for GM) so they're are fewer avenues to meet people. Like Galloway said, it's tougher for young men to demonstrate excellence.

Pay rates have stagnated, housing prices and COL has skyrocketed which makes owning a home or even renting by yourself much harder than it was for previous generations. About 18% of young adults between 25-34 live at home, with men at a higher rate (20%), which is a sharp increase from even say 2000. (link)

The job market is tougher, jobs are being lost to automation and AI, fewer jobs are being created than ever before and it's harder than ever to break into the job market and get a livable wage (link)

I'm not blaming video games or condemning your children, these aren't personal attacks, but to stick your head in the sand and use personal anecdotes to waive away the problem only serves to make it worse.

And some of these angry young men resort to horrific violence, which can be seen with a rise in mass shootings (link) and the age of the shooters is decreasing (link).

It's an uncomfortable conversation, especially if you have young boys, but that doesn't mean you can't have it.
 
Historical trends
1980s: The median age of first-time homebuyers was around 29 years old.
2021: The median age was 33.
2022: The median age rose to 36.
2023: The median age was 35.
2024: The median age reached 38, a record high at the time.
2025: The median age is now 40

I'm sure interest rates have NOTHING to do with this....
Average interest rate in 1980.............18.45%

2021........2.65%
2022........5.34%
2023.........7.79%

So while they are trending up they are still nowhere close to what they were in 1980. Not sure if you are making the point you think you are making.
 
Historical trends
1980s: The median age of first-time homebuyers was around 29 years old.
2021: The median age was 33.
2022: The median age rose to 36.
2023: The median age was 35.
2024: The median age reached 38, a record high at the time.
2025: The median age is now 40

I'm sure interest rates have NOTHING to do with this....
Average interest rate in 1980.............18.45%

2021........2.65%
2022........5.34%
2023.........7.79%

So while they are trending up they are still nowhere close to what they were in 1980. Not sure if you are making the point you think you are making.

It 's less a problem of interest rates and more the fact that house prices have way outpaced incomes since 1980.
 
Historical trends
1980s: The median age of first-time homebuyers was around 29 years old.
2021: The median age was 33.
2022: The median age rose to 36.
2023: The median age was 35.
2024: The median age reached 38, a record high at the time.
2025: The median age is now 40

Not to be insensitive to the boomers....but them dying off in the next 20 years should help this right?
 
Per chat GPT, Boomers own 40% of American homes.

"Most economists expect a gradual softening of prices, not a crash"
Yeah, there's a possibility of a lot of houses hitting the market in the next 10 years and the younger generations are smaller in number so there may be fewer buyers, leading to reduced prices.
 
Per chat GPT, Boomers own 40% of American homes.

"Most economists expect a gradual softening of prices, not a crash"
Yeah, there's a possibility of a lot of houses hitting the market in the next 10 years and the younger generations are smaller in number so there may be fewer buyers, leading to reduced prices.
You also have the Private Equity / Corporate buyout of houses to consider as well. This isn't helping.
 
Historical trends
1980s: The median age of first-time homebuyers was around 29 years old.
2021: The median age was 33.
2022: The median age rose to 36.
2023: The median age was 35.
2024: The median age reached 38, a record high at the time.
2025: The median age is now 40

I'm sure interest rates have NOTHING to do with this....
Average interest rate in 1980.............18.45%

2021........2.65%
2022........5.34%
2023.........7.79%

So while they are trending up they are still nowhere close to what they were in 1980. Not sure if you are making the point you think you are making.

It 's less a problem of interest rates and more the fact that house prices have way outpaced incomes since 1980.

Which is caused because housing supply is lower relative to total population. There are two big reasons for this

1) Our nation tends to build 'outward' because the USA is so vast. We would need to build 'up' to make a dent in the shortage

2) We would also need to encourage those that have been at the same home for many years to be willing to sell. And they aren't going to do that if they have to pay capital gains on them. I own a couple homes. Would be happy to sell one if I wasn't going to pay gains on it. So if you want the supply to go up, the govt should give me a better option than paying gain tax because the current limit isn't high enough. We will hold it until our kids inherit it at the new cost basis, and no taxes need to be paid.


Since I'm in real estate, I'll tell you home ownership is not all it's cracked up to be. My kids will say I paid (fictionally) $1M for my house and it's worth $2.2M. You made X% on it. Well not really. The interest on an 80% loan of $800k at 3.5% means I really paid ~$1.25M. I also had to keep up with the times and put $350K in it for roofs, HVACs, renovations, etc . And taxes and insurance are like $17K per year for 20 years that we've been there, so that's another $340K. So I really paid like $1.9M for my $2.2M house (less interest deductions). What's that rate of return over 20 years? Not gonna figure it own, but RE appreciates at about 3% per year. While the market appreciates at 7%+. I figure it all evens out and owning a home is about pride of ownership more than a good financial decision.


I think #2 above is a big deal. If you are an elderly person with one home that you bought in 1970 for $50k. And it's worth $1M now and you have no paperwork for how much improvements you made over the years. You are looking at a huge gains. So why leave your 4 bedroom house and pay taxes and buy a lesser place for a lot of money. Those people are staying put. We aren't talking the uber rich either. We're talking John and Jane Smith living next door to us all. Get rid of the home sale tax, and maybe they move. The uber rich don't care about this. Middle class does
 
Historical trends
1980s: The median age of first-time homebuyers was around 29 years old.
2021: The median age was 33.
2022: The median age rose to 36.
2023: The median age was 35.
2024: The median age reached 38, a record high at the time.
2025: The median age is now 40

I'm sure interest rates have NOTHING to do with this....
Average interest rate in 1980.............18.45%

2021........2.65%
2022........5.34%
2023.........7.79%

So while they are trending up they are still nowhere close to what they were in 1980. Not sure if you are making the point you think you are making.

It 's less a problem of interest rates and more the fact that house prices have way outpaced incomes since 1980.
I agree. That was why I posted what I posted.
 
Per chat GPT, Boomers own 40% of American homes.

"Most economists expect a gradual softening of prices, not a crash"
Yeah, there's a possibility of a lot of houses hitting the market in the next 10 years and the younger generations are smaller in number so there may be fewer buyers, leading to reduced prices.
You also have the Private Equity / Corporate buyout of houses to consider as well. This isn't helping.
The best solution to this would be to levy a massive tax on 3rd properties. So you have a primary residence and can have a secondary residence, but anything beyond that faces a massive tax. There needs to be some way to disincentivize that practice.
 
Historical trends
1980s: The median age of first-time homebuyers was around 29 years old.
2021: The median age was 33.
2022: The median age rose to 36.
2023: The median age was 35.
2024: The median age reached 38, a record high at the time.
2025: The median age is now 40

I'm sure interest rates have NOTHING to do with this....
Average interest rate in 1980.............18.45%

2021........2.65%
2022........5.34%
2023.........7.79%

So while they are trending up they are still nowhere close to what they were in 1980. Not sure if you are making the point you think you are making.

It 's less a problem of interest rates and more the fact that house prices have way outpaced incomes since 1980.

Which is caused because housing supply is lower relative to total population. There are two big reasons for this

1) Our nation tends to build 'outward' because the USA is so vast. We would need to build 'up' to make a dent in the shortage

2) We would also need to encourage those that have been at the same home for many years to be willing to sell. And they aren't going to do that if they have to pay capital gains on them. I own a couple homes. Would be happy to sell one if I wasn't going to pay gains on it. So if you want the supply to go up, the govt should give me a better option than paying gain tax because the current limit isn't high enough. We will hold it until our kids inherit it at the new cost basis, and no taxes need to be paid.


Since I'm in real estate, I'll tell you home ownership is not all it's cracked up to be. My kids will say I paid (fictionally) $1M for my house and it's worth $2.2M. You made X% on it. Well not really. The interest on an 80% loan of $800k at 3.5% means I really paid ~$1.25M. I also had to keep up with the times and put $350K in it for roofs, HVACs, renovations, etc . And taxes and insurance are like $17K per year for 20 years that we've been there, so that's another $340K. So I really paid like $1.9M for my $2.2M house (less interest deductions). What's that rate of return over 20 years? Not gonna figure it own, but RE appreciates at about 3% per year. While the market appreciates at 7%+. I figure it all evens out and owning a home is about pride of ownership more than a good financial decision.


I think #2 above is a big deal. If you are an elderly person with one home that you bought in 1970 for $50k. And it's worth $1M now and you have no paperwork for how much improvements you made over the years. You are looking at a huge gains. So why leave your 4 bedroom house and pay taxes and buy a lesser place for a lot of money. Those people are staying put. We aren't talking the uber rich either. We're talking John and Jane Smith living next door to us all. Get rid of the home sale tax, and maybe they move. The uber rich don't care about this. Middle class does
If you got rid of that sale tax, doesn't private equity swoop in and buy even more houses to flip?
 
Per chat GPT, Boomers own 40% of American homes.

"Most economists expect a gradual softening of prices, not a crash"
Yeah, there's a possibility of a lot of houses hitting the market in the next 10 years and the younger generations are smaller in number so there may be fewer buyers, leading to reduced prices.
You also have the Private Equity / Corporate buyout of houses to consider as well. This isn't helping.
Yeah this is a huge issue along with the rental property, Airbnb thing.
 
I think #2 above is a big deal. If you are an elderly person with one home that you bought in 1970 for $50k. And it's worth $1M now and you have no paperwork for how much improvements you made over the years. You are looking at a huge gains. So why leave your 4 bedroom house and pay taxes and buy a lesser place for a lot of money. Those people are staying put. We aren't talking the uber rich either. We're talking John and Jane Smith living next door to us all. Get rid of the home sale tax, and maybe they move. The uber rich don't care about this. Middle class does
Not only that, there's a major tax advantage to holding that home until death for the vast majority of Americans. Assuming this fictional taxpayer isn't subject to estate tax (i.e. has assets + prior gifts of less than approx $14 million), there's somewhere in the ballpark of $150,000+ of tax savings if they were to die while holding this asset as opposed to either selling during their lifetime or gifting the house to their heirs. We indirectly incentivize people to hold these assets until death with our estate tax regulations.
 
So why leave your 4 bedroom house and pay taxes and buy a lesser place for a lot of money. Those people are staying put. We aren't talking the uber rich either. We're talking John and Jane Smith living next door to us all.
Exact position I am currently in. I have a huge house for me & the wife but it makes zero sense for us to sell it (reaping large but not life changing gains) only to have to dump all of said gains into a newer, smaller house that costs twice as much as what I paid for my house. My kids will inherit this place or the wife will sell it when it kills me and move in with one of them and they might have a shot at buying a place of their own.
 
I haven't read the thread. I'll just offer this up. As a 29 year old man, there is far more psychology involved here that was actually seeded with our fathers (and lack thereof) and passed on to us than people realize. I'm talking about having to go back to the time of WWII for the origin story of this current path. I don't think this is all that sociological.
 

It 's less a problem of interest rates and more the fact that house prices have way outpaced incomes since 1980.
I agree. That was why I posted what I posted.
Right. Interest rates have almost nothing to do with the issue of young home ownership. People could afford high interest rates because the house they bought was 2.5x their annual salary.

How many here grew up with those developments full of ranch houses? Starter homes, home came on a couple trucks, lowered in by cranes, and bam, you gotta house. 45 grand. Mortgage payments were cheaper than rent, and you build equity.
 
So why leave your 4 bedroom house and pay taxes and buy a lesser place for a lot of money. Those people are staying put. We aren't talking the uber rich either. We're talking John and Jane Smith living next door to us all.
Exact position I am currently in. I have a huge house for me & the wife but it makes zero sense for us to sell it (reaping large but not life changing gains) only to have to dump all of said gains into a newer, smaller house that costs twice as much as what I paid for my house. My kids will inherit this place or the wife will sell it when it kills me and move in with one of them and they might have a shot at buying a place of their own.
Same here. We have two homes. One we lived in one for many years. The other we just bought for retirement. I would sell the primary home within 3 years if the home sale exemption was double or went away entirely (govt makes almost nothing on it anyway becasue of tax avoidance strategies). If you want me to add it to the supply, incentivize me to do so. You could also incentivize me by making my kids inherit it at what I paid for it, but there are so many ways around that with trusts, etc that it would backfire. Just get rid of it.
 
Historical trends
1980s: The median age of first-time homebuyers was around 29 years old.
2021: The median age was 33.
2022: The median age rose to 36.
2023: The median age was 35.
2024: The median age reached 38, a record high at the time.
2025: The median age is now 40

I'm sure interest rates have NOTHING to do with this....
Average interest rate in 1980.............18.45%

2021........2.65%
2022........5.34%
2023.........7.79%

So while they are trending up they are still nowhere close to what they were in 1980. Not sure if you are making the point you think you are making.
The median sale price of a home in 1980 was $64,000 ($250,000 in today's money).

The median sale price of a home in 2025 is $410,000
 
Historical trends
1980s: The median age of first-time homebuyers was around 29 years old.
2021: The median age was 33.
2022: The median age rose to 36.
2023: The median age was 35.
2024: The median age reached 38, a record high at the time.
2025: The median age is now 40

I'm sure interest rates have NOTHING to do with this....
Average interest rate in 1980.............18.45%

2021........2.65%
2022........5.34%
2023.........7.79%

So while they are trending up they are still nowhere close to what they were in 1980. Not sure if you are making the point you think you are making.
The median sale price of a home in 1980 was $64,000 ($250,000 in today's money).

The median sale price of a home in 2025 is $410,000
Right. that is the biggest factor for affordability. Not the interest rate.
 
Historical trends
1980s: The median age of first-time homebuyers was around 29 years old.
2021: The median age was 33.
2022: The median age rose to 36.
2023: The median age was 35.
2024: The median age reached 38, a record high at the time.
2025: The median age is now 40

I'm sure interest rates have NOTHING to do with this....
Average interest rate in 1980.............18.45%

2021........2.65%
2022........5.34%
2023.........7.79%

So while they are trending up they are still nowhere close to what they were in 1980. Not sure if you are making the point you think you are making.
The median sale price of a home in 1980 was $64,000 ($250,000 in today's money).

The median sale price of a home in 2025 is $410,000
Right. that is the biggest factor for affordability. Not the interest rate.

Yes, that is a large factor, agreed. But rates are also deterring buyers at the moment. From NPR: https://www.npr.org/2025/07/26/nx-s1-5478757/home-price-record-mortgage-rates

Many buyers are deterred by high mortgage rates​

There are significantly more homes for sale than there were a year ago, but inventory is still lower than it was pre-pandemic.

And elevated mortgage rates — currently averaging 6.74% — are discouraging would-be buyers. For those who are trying to enter the market and buy their first home, these high rates on top of high prices mean they simply can't make the numbers work. Each percentage in interest can add hundreds of dollars to a monthly payment.

"It is pricing out buyers," says Lautz. Mortgage rates are also discouraging people from selling, she continues: "We also know the lock-in effect is real. People who have lower-interest-rate mortgages are just not willing to make this move right now unless they have a lot of housing equity."
 

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