Numbers and VBD vs just knowing (1 Viewer)

[JohnnyU]

I must admit that I'm not a number cruncher, and I don't use VBD, even though I'm a software developer. You have those that live and die by projections, VBD, etc., and you have those that just go with what they know about players and their situations. Some would call it gut instinct, but it goes beyond that for those that don't number crunch or use VBD. I've been successful by doing more reading and knowing about players than paying attention, or living / dying by their numbers, or using VBD. Now I'm not saying that VBD isn't a good tool, it is, I just choose to go with "what I know" about players instead of depending on numbers or software tools. Those that can use these tools as a guide, and are not hell bent on it's reliability, or follow it to the letter, also do very well. After all, information is key, and the more you have of it the better, but you also have to adjust to situations. I don't think this hobby is so complex that I need VBD to succeed. I believe you can be successful using both methods, but those of us who don't like to play the numbers game, you can still succeed consistently.

 

[softball]

I must admit that I'm not a number cruncher, and I don't use VBD, even though I'm a software developer. You have those that live and die by projections, VBD, etc., and you have those that just go with what they know about players and their situations. Some would call it gut instinct, but it goes beyond that for those that don't number crunch or use VBD. I've been successful by doing more reading and knowing about players than paying attention, or living / dying by their numbers, or using VBD. Now I'm not saying that VBD isn't a good tool, it is, I just choose to go with "what I know" about players instead of depending on numbers or software tools. Those that can use these tools as a guide, and are not hell bent on it's reliability, or follow it to the letter, also do very well. After all, information is key, and the more you have of it the better, but you also have to adjust to situations. I don't think this hobby is so complex that I need VBD to succeed. I believe you can be successful using both methods, but those of us who don't like to play the numbers game, you can still succeed consistently.

With ya all the way Johnny. Know the player,system and supporting cast. And you can focus on production over projections....

 

[joffer]

I must admit that I'm not a number cruncher, and I don't use VBD, even though I'm a software developer. You have those that live and die by projections, VBD, etc., and you have those that just go with what they know about players and their situations. Some would call it gut instinct, but it goes beyond that for those that don't number crunch or use VBD. I've been successful by doing more reading and knowing about players than paying attention, or living / dying by their numbers, or using VBD. Now I'm not saying that VBD isn't a good tool, it is, I just choose to go with "what I know" about players instead of depending on numbers or software tools. Those that can use these tools as a guide, and are not hell bent on it's reliability, or follow it to the letter, also do very well. After all, information is key, and the more you have of it the better, but you also have to adjust to situations. I don't think this hobby is so complex that I need VBD to succeed. I believe you can be successful using both methods, but those of us who don't like to play the numbers game, you can still succeed consistently.

so how do you know (in general) to take a RB with your first pick?

 

[JohnnyU]

I must admit that I'm not a number cruncher, and I don't use VBD, even though I'm a software developer.  You have those that live and die by projections, VBD, etc., and you have those that just go with what they know about players and their situations.  Some would call it gut instinct, but it goes beyond that for those that don't number crunch or use VBD.  I've been successful by doing more reading and knowing about players than paying attention, or living / dying by their numbers, or using VBD.  Now I'm not saying that VBD isn't a good tool, it is, I just choose to go with "what I know" about players instead of depending on numbers or software tools.  Those that can use these tools as a guide, and are not hell bent on it's reliability, or follow it to the letter, also do very well.  After all, information is key, and the more you have of it the better, but you also have to adjust to situations.  I don't think this hobby is so complex that I need VBD to succeed.  I believe you can be successful using both methods, but those of us who don't like to play the numbers game, you can still succeed consistently.

so how do you know (in general) to take a RB with your first pick?

The point is not to worry about whether you should take a RB with the first pick. In general, RBs score more points in most scoring systems, so it doesn't take a genius with the first rd pick. It gets dicey with the picks that follow, where certain FF players will follow their VBD or projections to the letter, and that's where we differ. I don't need a piece of software to tell me who I should take. I go with the flow of the draft, but I will generally take a QB in rounds 5,6,7, unless Manning is a gift. Those who focus too much on numbers and VBD tend to ignore the flow of the draft, thus missing out on the better picks some of the time.

 

[joffer]

I must admit that I'm not a number cruncher, and I don't use VBD, even though I'm a software developer.  You have those that live and die by projections, VBD, etc., and you have those that just go with what they know about players and their situations.  Some would call it gut instinct, but it goes beyond that for those that don't number crunch or use VBD.  I've been successful by doing more reading and knowing about players than paying attention, or living / dying by their numbers, or using VBD.  Now I'm not saying that VBD isn't a good tool, it is, I just choose to go with "what I know" about players instead of depending on numbers or software tools.  Those that can use these tools as a guide, and are not hell bent on it's reliability, or follow it to the letter, also do very well.  After all, information is key, and the more you have of it the better, but you also have to adjust to situations.  I don't think this hobby is so complex that I need VBD to succeed.  I believe you can be successful using both methods, but those of us who don't like to play the numbers game, you can still succeed consistently.

so how do you know (in general) to take a RB with your first pick?

The point is not to worry about whether you should take a RB with the first pick. In general, RBs score more points in most scoring systems, so it doesn't take a genius with the first rd pick. It gets dicey with the picks that follow, where certain FF players will follow their VBD or projections to the letter, and that's where we differ. I don't need a piece of software to tell me who I should take. I go with the flow of the draft, but I will generally take a QB in rounds 5,6,7, unless Manning is a gift. Those who focus too much on numbers and VBD tend to ignore the flow of the draft, thus missing out on the better picks some of the time.

in scoring systems with 6 points for passing TDs, QB almost always score more, and if you're taking a RB with your first pick, I hate to say it, but you're using the concept of VBD. VBD is NOT synonymous with projections.I also fail to see having players ranked by projections causes me to "ignore the flow" of a draft. You rank by your gut. I rank by projections. We just arrive at our rankings by different methods.

 

[radballs]

It sounds like what you're saying is that you prefer to use your gut instinct which is fine. I do that throughout a draft because player values change while selections are being made. I just don't understand why you wouldn't want to attempt to quantify those differences and use those tools while the draft is in progress. At a minimum, the Draft Dominator helps you track your picks as well as others. Whether you agree with those numbers or not is up to you, but you are able to make your own adjustments and use that to your advantage if you see arbitrage opportunities between ADP and player projections. To say that you just wing it, doesn't provide much information about what tools you use while you draft. Anything else you can add here as to how you are successful during your drafts?

 

[JohnnyU]

I also fail to see having players ranked by projections causes me to "ignore the flow" of a draft. You rank by your gut. I rank by projections. We just arrive at our rankings by different methods.

One possible difference, all I have in front of me in a draft is a player list that I can mark off as they are drafted.Also, I did say "depending on the scoring system", RBs are usually the 1st rd pick for most teams. I know the saying goes, "Drafts aren't won by the first rd pick, but can be lost by it", but I totally disagree with that. Drafts are won by those who adapt to the draft, not rely on projections or VBD.

 

[JohnnyU]

I just don't understand why you wouldn't want to attempt to quantify those differences and use those tools while the draft is in progress. At a minimum, the Draft Dominator helps you track your picks as well as others.

I'd rather use my time thinking of a potential trade or the flow of the draft rather than how some guy fits in my projections. I don't feel like I'm "winging it" during a draft, because I've already prepared ahead of time, knowing everything there is to know about every player.

 

[joffer]

Drafts are won by those who adapt to the draft, not rely on projections or VBD.

I don't even know what that means. Are you "draft adaptation" techniques a secret?You have a sheet of players in front of you. I have a sheet of players in front of me. What difference does it make how we arrived at the order of those particular players?

 

[JohnnyU]

Drafts are won by those who adapt to the draft, not rely on projections or VBD.

I don't even know what that means. Are you "draft adaptation" techniques a secret?You have a sheet of players in front of you. I have a sheet of players in front of me. What difference does it make how we arrived at the order of those particular players?

Draft Adaptation = player that I target now vs his availability later. Whether you need a piece of software to tell you this or not, I wouldn't know, but I sure don't.

 

[radballs]

Drafts are won by those who adapt to the draft, not rely on projections or VBD.

I don't even know what that means. Are you "draft adaptation" techniques a secret?You have a sheet of players in front of you. I have a sheet of players in front of me. What difference does it make how we arrived at the order of those particular players?

Draft Adaptation = player that I target now vs his availability later. Whether you need a piece of software to tell you this or not, I wouldn't know, but I sure don't.

I think you are underestimating the power of some of the software tools that FBGs have developed. I'm not saying that you have to follow their projections or even select players that the software suggests after you make your own changes to them. But, you're missing out on substantial organizational assistance by just ignoring them because you've never tried them and that's just the way you've always done it.

 

[joffer]

Drafts are won by those who adapt to the draft, not rely on projections or VBD.

I don't even know what that means. Are you "draft adaptation" techniques a secret?You have a sheet of players in front of you. I have a sheet of players in front of me. What difference does it make how we arrived at the order of those particular players?

Draft Adaptation = player that I target now vs his availability later. Whether you need a piece of software to tell you this or not, I wouldn't know, but I sure don't.

A) What in the wide, wide, world of sports does this have to do with doing projections or using VBD?B) It sounds like you just have a problem with people that like to use a laptop at the draft.

C) Believe it or not, I can walk and chew gum at the same time (translation - not draft a player this round just because he's my highest ranked player if i know he'll be available next round).

 

[JohnnyU]

Drafts are won by those who adapt to the draft, not rely on projections or VBD.

I don't even know what that means. Are you "draft adaptation" techniques a secret?You have a sheet of players in front of you. I have a sheet of players in front of me. What difference does it make how we arrived at the order of those particular players?

Draft Adaptation = player that I target now vs his availability later. Whether you need a piece of software to tell you this or not, I wouldn't know, but I sure don't.

I think you are underestimating the power of some of the software tools that FBGs have developed. I'm not saying that you have to follow their projections or even select players that the software suggests after you make your own changes to them. But, you're missing out of substantial organizational assistance by just ignoring them because you've never tried them and that's just the way you've always done it.

I'm just saying that I'd rather look at the draft as it is happening from the outside looking in, and paying too much attention to projections and what VBD tells you can cloud your mind from making a good pick or trade. Especially during a draft that doesn't have a 24 hr clock, meaning a one night draft of 26 rounds. I want to feel that I've come to the draft prepared mentally, and I have a free mind during the draft.

 

[JohnnyU]

Drafts are won by those who adapt to the draft, not rely on projections or VBD.

I don't even know what that means. Are you "draft adaptation" techniques a secret?You have a sheet of players in front of you. I have a sheet of players in front of me. What difference does it make how we arrived at the order of those particular players?

Draft Adaptation = player that I target now vs his availability later. Whether you need a piece of software to tell you this or not, I wouldn't know, but I sure don't.

A) What in the wide, wide, world of sports does this have to do with doing projections or using VBD?B) It sounds like you just have a problem with people that like to use a laptop at the draft.

C) Believe it or not, I can walk and chew gum at the same time (translation - not draft a player this round just because he's my highest ranked player if i know he'll be available next round).

Like I said in my initial post, draft tools are fine as long as you don't depend on them. Trust your own knowledge first, and free your mind during the draft so that you can see the flow of the draft and think of trades. I've seen a lot of people so caught up in their projections and numbers they can't see these things I speak of.

 

[moleculo]

ideally, your projections are a reflection of the research you have done and are a way to create a consistant, valid method of justifying why you like player A over player B.

Fore me, projecitons are a mathod to decide before the draft if you like player A better than player B at a given position. The other power here, and this is what VBD and the tiering method account for, is that you have a guage as to how MUCH you like player A over player B.

While it is true that it is very easy to get bogged down by the details, I think it helps to have these decisions made before hand

I do not agree that a season can be made or lost with the first pick. anyone can look at any magazine or web-site and see that LT and LJ should be two of the top RB's - that is easy. I say a draft is made or broken in rounds 5-10, and this is where things get difficult.

 

[moleculo]

Drafts are won by those who adapt to the draft, not rely on projections or VBD.

I don't even know what that means. Are you "draft adaptation" techniques a secret?You have a sheet of players in front of you. I have a sheet of players in front of me. What difference does it make how we arrived at the order of those particular players?

Draft Adaptation = player that I target now vs his availability later. Whether you need a piece of software to tell you this or not, I wouldn't know, but I sure don't.

A) What in the wide, wide, world of sports does this have to do with doing projections or using VBD?B) It sounds like you just have a problem with people that like to use a laptop at the draft.

C) Believe it or not, I can walk and chew gum at the same time (translation - not draft a player this round just because he's my highest ranked player if i know he'll be available next round).

Like I said in my initial post, draft tools are fine as long as you don't depend on them. Trust your own knowledge first, and free your mind during the draft so that you can see the flow of the draft and think of trades. I've seen a lot of people so caught up in their projections and numbers they can't see these things I speak of.

your tools should reflect your knowlege. If you have interjected your knowlege into your projections, and therefore your VBD, you don't have to worry about player comparisons during the draft and you are more free to follow the ebb and flow, IMO.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I also fail to see having players ranked by projections causes me to "ignore the flow" of a draft. You rank by your gut. I rank by projections. We just arrive at our rankings by different methods.

One possible difference, all I have in front of me in a draft is a player list that I can mark off as they are drafted.Also, I did say "depending on the scoring system", RBs are usually the 1st rd pick for most teams. I know the saying goes, "Drafts aren't won by the first rd pick, but can be lost by it", but I totally disagree with that. Drafts are won by those who adapt to the draft, not rely on projections or VBD.

I think you miss the point of organizing projections for a draft. Having your own projections organized by value applied to your scoring system, and having understanding of other owners and ADPs, all allows you to "adapt to a draft" seamlessly. Even if you just rank players by position and use a slightly modified AVT, you will be much more adaptable to surprises in the draft. Projections are the key, not VBD, AVT, or any other way of organizing them. If you make solid projections, if that data is tangible and organized, you are far more adaptable during a draft.

My two main leagues, both IDP redrafts, one auction, one serpentine, are truly chaotic drafts for those who go in only armed with their guts and knowledge. I learned this the hard way.

That said, I don't doubt a shark-- who hangs out here regularly, stays on top of every player, and does the same amount of research as the rest of us-- could draft successfully without projections and systems.

I discovered a personal flaw in my ability to do that though. In slow drafts I always look back and shrug. I got the team I wanted and wouldn't change things (right or wrong win or lose). In fast paced live drafts I always bungle a pick when a target or two falls before I draft. So organizing my projections (VBD) and studying ADPs (doing a lot of mock drafts) has solved the problem. I take all of ten seconds to make a pick, and I make it confidently regardless of who fell and if I expected to get him. I am more adaptable thanks to being better organized.

 

[JohnnyU]

Drafts are won by those who adapt to the draft, not rely on projections or VBD.

I don't even know what that means. Are you "draft adaptation" techniques a secret?You have a sheet of players in front of you. I have a sheet of players in front of me. What difference does it make how we arrived at the order of those particular players?

Draft Adaptation = player that I target now vs his availability later. Whether you need a piece of software to tell you this or not, I wouldn't know, but I sure don't.

A) What in the wide, wide, world of sports does this have to do with doing projections or using VBD?B) It sounds like you just have a problem with people that like to use a laptop at the draft.

C) Believe it or not, I can walk and chew gum at the same time (translation - not draft a player this round just because he's my highest ranked player if i know he'll be available next round).

Like I said in my initial post, draft tools are fine as long as you don't depend on them. Trust your own knowledge first, and free your mind during the draft so that you can see the flow of the draft and think of trades. I've seen a lot of people so caught up in their projections and numbers they can't see these things I speak of.

your tools should reflect your knowlege. If you have interjected your knowlege into your projections, and therefore your VBD, you don't have to worry about player comparisons during the draft and you are more free to follow the ebb and flow, IMO.

Like I said, tools are great as long as you don't feel you have to follow it to the letter, and you don't spend too much time looking at the numbers instead of thinking of trades or the flow. VBD and other tools are fine as long as they are kept in perspective, and don't interfere with what is really important during the draft.

 

[ozman]

Johnny U...I agree with you 100%

I think there are 2 parts to the equation...

1. Draft Projections

2. What you do with them.

Each draft is as different as the owners drafting, having the best "draft projections" may let you steal a player or two...dynamically drafting "from the gut" as Johnny U describes can make or break you. If you

ve got the knack to draft "from the gut" you should be able to:

a. read the draft

b. read your opponents

c. wait to take a player when they should go...not where you may have them in your "draft projections"

d. all of the above

Then you will be in the money more times than not.

 

[moleculo]

Drafts are won by those who adapt to the draft, not rely on projections or VBD.

I don't even know what that means. Are you "draft adaptation" techniques a secret?You have a sheet of players in front of you. I have a sheet of players in front of me. What difference does it make how we arrived at the order of those particular players?

Draft Adaptation = player that I target now vs his availability later. Whether you need a piece of software to tell you this or not, I wouldn't know, but I sure don't.

A) What in the wide, wide, world of sports does this have to do with doing projections or using VBD?B) It sounds like you just have a problem with people that like to use a laptop at the draft.

C) Believe it or not, I can walk and chew gum at the same time (translation - not draft a player this round just because he's my highest ranked player if i know he'll be available next round).

Like I said in my initial post, draft tools are fine as long as you don't depend on them. Trust your own knowledge first, and free your mind during the draft so that you can see the flow of the draft and think of trades. I've seen a lot of people so caught up in their projections and numbers they can't see these things I speak of.

your tools should reflect your knowlege. If you have interjected your knowlege into your projections, and therefore your VBD, you don't have to worry about player comparisons during the draft and you are more free to follow the ebb and flow, IMO.

Like I said, tools are great as long as you don't feel you have to follow it to the letter, and you don't spend too much time looking at the numbers instead of thinking of trades or the flow. VBD and other tools are fine as long as they are kept in perspective, and don't interfere with what is really important during the draft.

when I make my pre-draft list, I don't have any numbers available, except for the VBD #'s and positional rankings. What numbers do you see bogging down people?

 

[JohnnyU]

Drafts are won by those who adapt to the draft, not rely on projections or VBD.

I don't even know what that means. Are you "draft adaptation" techniques a secret?You have a sheet of players in front of you. I have a sheet of players in front of me. What difference does it make how we arrived at the order of those particular players?

Draft Adaptation = player that I target now vs his availability later. Whether you need a piece of software to tell you this or not, I wouldn't know, but I sure don't.

A) What in the wide, wide, world of sports does this have to do with doing projections or using VBD?B) It sounds like you just have a problem with people that like to use a laptop at the draft.

C) Believe it or not, I can walk and chew gum at the same time (translation - not draft a player this round just because he's my highest ranked player if i know he'll be available next round).

Like I said in my initial post, draft tools are fine as long as you don't depend on them. Trust your own knowledge first, and free your mind during the draft so that you can see the flow of the draft and think of trades. I've seen a lot of people so caught up in their projections and numbers they can't see these things I speak of.

your tools should reflect your knowlege. If you have interjected your knowlege into your projections, and therefore your VBD, you don't have to worry about player comparisons during the draft and you are more free to follow the ebb and flow, IMO.

Like I said, tools are great as long as you don't feel you have to follow it to the letter, and you don't spend too much time looking at the numbers instead of thinking of trades or the flow. VBD and other tools are fine as long as they are kept in perspective, and don't interfere with what is really important during the draft.

when I make my pre-draft list, I don't have any numbers available, except for the VBD #'s and positional rankings. What numbers do you see bogging down people?

What bogs people down is what lies in front of them. They get side tracked by their numbers and projections instead of paying attention to the draft or potential trades. This is especially true during a one night 20+ round draft. Seasons can be won by trades during draft day, even more so than having a good draft.

 

[Merton]

I'm sorta with you JohnnyU.

I use VBD and fbg projections to help with my draft list. Tweaked by my own thoughts on players and my league scoring rules. I also factor in the SOS quite a bit.

Then during the draft I take more of a JohnnyU approach. For example, if there are several WR3s available that I wouldn't mind having I'll ignore that position and go for a RB3/4 or QB2.

I also like to lead a "run" instead of following it. It seems like the draft dominator "panics" if there's a run on a position, putting more value on the fewer remaining players at that position.

 

[Spartans Rule]

To me, projections aren't about using VBD. They're about quantifying my opinions.

I've been in enough drafts that if I have a sheet in front of me with rankings and projected FP totals, I can do the VBD work from the gut and figure out who the right pick is.

I make projections to sort out my opinions and put concrete numbers next to them. Just sitting down and putting a bunch of players in order is too chaotic and unscientific for me. You're drafting the players you think will score the most FP, so it makes sense to go over what you think those numbers will be.

 

[moleculo]

Drafts are won by those who adapt to the draft, not rely on projections or VBD.

I don't even know what that means. Are you "draft adaptation" techniques a secret?You have a sheet of players in front of you. I have a sheet of players in front of me. What difference does it make how we arrived at the order of those particular players?

Draft Adaptation = player that I target now vs his availability later. Whether you need a piece of software to tell you this or not, I wouldn't know, but I sure don't.

A) What in the wide, wide, world of sports does this have to do with doing projections or using VBD?B) It sounds like you just have a problem with people that like to use a laptop at the draft.

C) Believe it or not, I can walk and chew gum at the same time (translation - not draft a player this round just because he's my highest ranked player if i know he'll be available next round).

Like I said in my initial post, draft tools are fine as long as you don't depend on them. Trust your own knowledge first, and free your mind during the draft so that you can see the flow of the draft and think of trades. I've seen a lot of people so caught up in their projections and numbers they can't see these things I speak of.

your tools should reflect your knowlege. If you have interjected your knowlege into your projections, and therefore your VBD, you don't have to worry about player comparisons during the draft and you are more free to follow the ebb and flow, IMO.

Like I said, tools are great as long as you don't feel you have to follow it to the letter, and you don't spend too much time looking at the numbers instead of thinking of trades or the flow. VBD and other tools are fine as long as they are kept in perspective, and don't interfere with what is really important during the draft.

when I make my pre-draft list, I don't have any numbers available, except for the VBD #'s and positional rankings. What numbers do you see bogging down people?

What bogs people down is what lies in front of them. They get side tracked by their numbers and projections instead of paying attention to the draft or potential trades. This is especially true during a one night 20+ round draft. Seasons can be won by trades during draft day, even more so than having a good draft.

I don't disagree with anything you have said. However, I fail to see how using the tools complicates things. IMO, the tools are available so that you don't have to look at numbers - you have already made those decisions.I think you are looking to justify not doing rankings. That's fine, but I think it is impossible to have an objective opinion on 64 RB's coming from 32 teams. Your opinion is likely to be swayed by the last article you read, and you are likely to over-evaluate or under-evaluate accordingly.

I spend alot of time on my projections, but by no mean do I follow them blindly. I think it is just as important to know what opthers opinions are of player X and what other teams are looking to do, so oyu can decide if a player you are targeting can be picked up in the next round, or do you have to draft him now.

 

[radballs]

I'm sorta with you JohnnyU.

I use VBD and fbg projections to help with my draft list.  Tweaked by my own thoughts on players and my league scoring rules.  I also factor in the SOS quite a bit.

Then during the draft I take more of a JohnnyU approach.  For example, if there are several WR3s available that I wouldn't mind having I'll ignore that position and go for a RB3/4 or QB2. 

I also like to lead a "run" instead of following it.  It seems like the draft dominator "panics" if there's a run on a position, putting more value on the fewer remaining players at that position.

To me, projections aren't about using VBD. They're about quantifying my opinions.

I've been in enough drafts that if I have a sheet in front of me with rankings and projected FP totals, I can do the VBD work from the gut and figure out who the right pick is.

I make projections to sort out my opinions and put concrete numbers next to them. Just sitting down and putting a bunch of players in order is too chaotic and unscientific for me. You're drafting the players you think will score the most FP, so it makes sense to go over what you think those numbers will be.

These are both really good opinions. I think we might be talking about semantics here. Because most of the guys that I've drafted against that are weighing in on the "they use the tools" argument, don't follow a software program religiously. And I think this is a part of what Johnny was getting at. No matter what a program tells you might be the most valuable person to draft, it is usually wrong when you really think things through. I'm a huge DD proponent but, just like a gun, you need to know how to use it, aim it, and pull the trigger. Still, I'd rather have an extra gun and then decide for myself if I want to use it or not. Why not have an extra tool at your disposable during a draft in order to help you make decisions?

 

[Longshot88]

I must admit that I'm not a number cruncher, and I don't use VBD, even though I'm a software developer. You have those that live and die by projections, VBD, etc., and you have those that just go with what they know about players and their situations. Some would call it gut instinct, but it goes beyond that for those that don't number crunch or use VBD. I've been successful by doing more reading and knowing about players than paying attention, or living / dying by their numbers, or using VBD. Now I'm not saying that VBD isn't a good tool, it is, I just choose to go with "what I know" about players instead of depending on numbers or software tools. Those that can use these tools as a guide, and are not hell bent on it's reliability, or follow it to the letter, also do very well. After all, information is key, and the more you have of it the better, but you also have to adjust to situations. I don't think this hobby is so complex that I need VBD to succeed. I believe you can be successful using both methods, but those of us who don't like to play the numbers game, you can still succeed consistently.

I with you too Johnny, I think the DD is great..and I have used it in several drafts to keep track of things. I am not up on the whole computer thing and havent got around to change the projection on the program..but the tools are wonderful..I see projections as Just a guess..For instance in a dynasty I recently took Matt Jones over Lee Evans..every projection I have seen has evans over Jones, But i just cant see it. I could be wrong, and have been in the past...But i would rather go with my gut and Jones, than Everybody elses projections and Evans..

I could come up with a set of numbers and write everything down...but why??

 

[The Jerk]

I see projections, VBD, and the like as very helpful for:

1. an initial separation of players at a given position

2. ensuring that you are not undervaluing lesser-known players

3. understanding the relative/comparable value of players at different positions

However, before I go to a draft, I bump players around quite a bit until I feel comfortable that every player is in their proper place. I could do projections and then tweak the results to produce the same effect. It even might help me with that inter-positional ranking (#3 above), but why go through all the hassle?

I agree it's not purely a "gut decision" but it's close to that. I guess it's an educational guess built on the cumulative knowledge of many different factors, which includes but is not exclusively determined by the raw numbers or projections.

 

[AB in DC]

I think one of the biggest mistakes in the use of projections and VBD is to pay too much attention to very small differences in numeric value.

If you're choosing between two players solely because one is projected for 163 FPs and one is at 159 FPs, you're missing the boat. That difference is way too small to be meaningful. No projection system is nearly that precise.

When you get down that level of detail, other factors take much greater precedence:

a) ADP -- who will still be available in future rounds

b) Roster composition

c) Risk management -- upside and downside risk

IMHO any difference of less than 0.5 FPs per game (or 8-10 points for a full season) is meaningless compared to the other decision factors that should be considered.

 

[JohnnyU]

I think one of the biggest mistakes in the use of projections and VBD is to pay too much attention to very small differences in numeric value.

I think one of the biggest mistakes is to pay too much attention to numeric value period. Player value to me is based more upon opportunity, health, player use if a starter, scoring system, youth vs age, attitude (off field problems, locker room problems, etc.), how the coach feels about a player, ....I could go on and on.

 

[radballs]

I think one of the biggest mistakes in the use of projections and VBD is to pay too much attention to very small differences in numeric value.

I think one of the biggest mistakes is to pay too much attention to numeric value period. Player value to me is based more upon opportunity, health, player use if a starter, scoring system, youth vs age, attitude (off field problems, locker room problems, etc.), how the coach feels about a player, ....I could go on and on.

Yeah but Johnny, wouldn't all of those factors be accounted for in their projections? You make adjustments based on those variables and then work with what you've calculated. I understand working with your gut but you seem adamant to work against attempting to quantify these factors. This is what makes doing projections difficult, fun, and exciting. The drafting applications just help you take that work to use the output more efficiently.

 

[radballs]

I really agree with abrecher's post too. After you see a certain X value for whatever number of players you have within the same tier, you go with what guy works best given the bye weeks of previously selected players. You also determine how much risk/reward you want to take on with each pick. Like a lot of people have said in multiple threads, projections are just a guideline and then you decide, given the makeup of your team at that point in the draft, whether your team needs a safer, more consistent player or someone with serious upside. There's a ton of art versus science to drafting your team but you need the quantitative aspects dialed in to make these top down decisions imo.

 

[Tom Servo]

ideally, your projections are a reflection of the research you have done and are a way to create a consistant, valid method of justifying why you like player A over player B.

Fore me, projecitons are a mathod to decide before the draft if you like player A better than player B at a given position. The other power here, and this is what VBD and the tiering method account for, is that you have a guage as to how MUCH you like player A over player B.

While it is true that it is very easy to get bogged down by the details, I think it helps to have these decisions made before hand

I do not agree that a season can be made or lost with the first pick. anyone can look at any magazine or web-site and see that LT and LJ should be two of the top RB's - that is easy. I say a draft is made or broken in rounds 5-10, and this is where things get difficult.

Heck, 2005 saw me lose my 1.05 (Deuce) all year to injury and my 4th rounder (DJax) for a majority of the year, and I still ended up in the conference finals. And, yes, I did use VBD last year at the draft. I also didn't put my brain in park during the draft and I didn't shrivel up and die when the injury bug hit. I just kept working the FA list.

 

[cracKer]

I'm not sure some of you guys understand what VBD is.