Oddsmaker...week 17...Finally! (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

Here is who we have that is still alive.

10-1-1

Bankerguy(2-0-1)

10-2

East Coast Bias(3-0)

9-3

Bass N Brew(2-1)

7-4-1

Drunken Sailors(2-0-1)

Winning is Everything(2-0-1)

I want to thank everyone that posted the picks weekly. As you can see we had hundreds of folks at the beginning of the season and it appears we can only muster about 4-5 folks that can truly pick winners on any consistent basis. So basically I'm saying don't bet NFL games because a majority of the time no matter how much energy you thrust into the research, you will end up on the short side of the stick.

Mind you this board is filled with people that can recite stat after stat on all 32 NFL teams. Most of the patrons here know what teams are giving up weekly on the ground, thru the air, etc...

Here are the odds for this week's games. We'll skip the Thursday night game.

Dec 31

Buffalo 9.0 34.0

Baltimore -9.0

Green Bay 3.0 36.5

Chicago -3.0

Pittsburgh 6.0 43.5

Cincinnati -6.0

Detroit 13.0 44.0

Dallas -13.0

Cleveland 4.0 37.5

Houston -4.0

Miami 9.0 42.0

Indianapolis -9.0

Jacksonville 2.0 36.5

Kansas City -2.0

St. Louis -2.0 43.0

Minnesota 2.0

Carolina -2.5 36.0

New Orleans 2.5

Oakland 12.5 34.0

N.Y. Jets -12.5

Atlanta 8.0 43.0

Philadelphia -8.0

Seattle 3.0 36.5

Tampa Bay -3.0

New England 3.0 42.5

Tennessee -3.0

San Francisco 10.5 41.0

Denver -10.5

Arizona 13.5 44.0

San Diego -13.5

Good luck!!!

 

[AB in DC]

7-5 and out of the running, but let's see if I can still finish in the positive:

Houston -4

Tennessee -3

Miami-Indy OVER 42

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Well thanks MOP for running this, it was fun! I will say Bankerguy and East Coast Bias know their stuff. BnB was pretty strong all year too. Well, this is the tough week, one I would never play in "real life" but here goes.......

Houston -4

KC -2

Chicago -3

 

[BassNBrew]

I have my eye on a couple of games I like, but will need to pick different games from the top 2 in order to have a shot to catch them.

 

[Drunken Sailors]

gotta go with the dogs this week.... good luck everyone, this has been fun.... Thanks MOP!!

Oakland +12.5

Arizona +13.5

Carolina -2.5

Edited - changed from Detroit to Carolina

 

[East Coast Bias]

I have my eye on a couple of games I like, but will need to pick different games from the top 2 in order to have a shot to catch them.

I'm waiting to see who Bankerguy picks.

 

[Bankerguy]

I cannot believe how much time I have spent on my picks this week.

This is a great contest that doesn't get enough credit for the quality of posters and knowledge shown.

On to my picks:

St Louis -2.0

Dallas -13.0

San Fran +10.5

 

[East Coast Bias]

Atlanta +8

Detroit +13

San Francisco +10.5

 

[Bankerguy]

Weird.....no picks from BassNBrew.

So basically if Dallas covers I win.

 

[kd1]

you guys ever seen a week with the o/u's this low? highest is dal/det at 45.

 

[East Coast Bias]

Weird.....no picks from BassNBrew.So basically if Dallas covers I win.

Not really. If Dallas covers and you miss the other two you may not win.

 

[Bankerguy]

Weird.....no picks from BassNBrew.So basically if Dallas covers I win.

Not really. If Dallas covers and you miss the other two you may not win.

Yeah, but we both have San Fran.IF.....Dallas wins, I'm a game and a half up.With only one opportunity left for you....Atlanta.

 

[East Coast Bias]

Weird.....no picks from BassNBrew.So basically if Dallas covers I win.

Not really. If Dallas covers and you miss the other two you may not win.

Yeah, but we both have San Fran.IF.....Dallas wins, I'm a game and a half up.With only one opportunity left for you....Atlanta.

You are right. I didn't realize we both had San Francisco.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Weird.....no picks from BassNBrew.So basically if Dallas covers I win.

Not really. If Dallas covers and you miss the other two you may not win.

Yeah, but we both have San Fran.IF.....Dallas wins, I'm a game and a half up.With only one opportunity left for you....Atlanta.

Not sure why you would tell ECB because he could still change?I do A LOT of betting and have watched you guys and sometimes agree and sometimes don't. But, what is your thought (both of you) regarding SF, when you consider it is in Denver and Denver needs the game?

 

[Bankerguy]

Weird.....no picks from BassNBrew.So basically if Dallas covers I win.

Not really. If Dallas covers and you miss the other two you may not win.

Yeah, but we both have San Fran.IF.....Dallas wins, I'm a game and a half up.With only one opportunity left for you....Atlanta.

Not sure why you would tell ECB because he could still change?I do A LOT of betting and have watched you guys and sometimes agree and sometimes don't. But, what is your thought (both of you) regarding SF, when you consider it is in Denver and Denver needs the game?

Deadline for changes has passed.Why I like San Fran.They have a great run game that should be able to chip away at the TOP. The weather is supposed to bad again. I look for this to be a control passing and run game. Strengths of San Fran (also Denver).Also, Denver has not routed many teams. At 9.5 or 10 I would think about it more.....but love getting the extra .5 to make more than 10. Dever 27 - San Fran 20 Just my 0.02.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Weird.....no picks from BassNBrew.So basically if Dallas covers I win.

Not really. If Dallas covers and you miss the other two you may not win.

Yeah, but we both have San Fran.IF.....Dallas wins, I'm a game and a half up.With only one opportunity left for you....Atlanta.

Not sure why you would tell ECB because he could still change?I do A LOT of betting and have watched you guys and sometimes agree and sometimes don't. But, what is your thought (both of you) regarding SF, when you consider it is in Denver and Denver needs the game?

Deadline for changes has passed.Why I like San Fran.They have a great run game that should be able to chip away at the TOP. The weather is supposed to bad again. I look for this to be a control passing and run game. Strengths of San Fran (also Denver).Also, Denver has not routed many teams. At 9.5 or 10 I would think about it more.....but love getting the extra .5 to make more than 10. Dever 27 - San Fran 20 Just my 0.02.

Thanks, that is what i was asking forgood luck

 

[Liquid Tension]

Weird.....no picks from BassNBrew.So basically if Dallas covers I win.

Not really. If Dallas covers and you miss the other two you may not win.

Yeah, but we both have San Fran.IF.....Dallas wins, I'm a game and a half up.With only one opportunity left for you....Atlanta.

Not sure why you would tell ECB because he could still change?I do A LOT of betting and have watched you guys and sometimes agree and sometimes don't. But, what is your thought (both of you) regarding SF, when you consider it is in Denver and Denver needs the game?

Deadline for changes has passed.Why I like San Fran.They have a great run game that should be able to chip away at the TOP. The weather is supposed to bad again. I look for this to be a control passing and run game. Strengths of San Fran (also Denver).Also, Denver has not routed many teams. At 9.5 or 10 I would think about it more.....but love getting the extra .5 to make more than 10. Dever 27 - San Fran 20 Just my 0.02.

Thanks, that is what i was asking forgood luck

I usually go very light this last week as too many odd situations arise. Will teams play hard and all their starters, etc... I really liked the Giants giving only 1.5 this week and almost lost it at the end. I don't really like much else with the exception of the Cowboys and Bengals.Happy New Year

 

[Bankerguy]

Well it comes down to the Atlanta/Philly game.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Weird.....no picks from BassNBrew.So basically if Dallas covers I win.

Not really. If Dallas covers and you miss the other two you may not win.

Yeah, but we both have San Fran.IF.....Dallas wins, I'm a game and a half up.With only one opportunity left for you....Atlanta.

Not sure why you would tell ECB because he could still change?I do A LOT of betting and have watched you guys and sometimes agree and sometimes don't. But, what is your thought (both of you) regarding SF, when you consider it is in Denver and Denver needs the game?

Deadline for changes has passed.Why I like San Fran.They have a great run game that should be able to chip away at the TOP. The weather is supposed to bad again. I look for this to be a control passing and run game. Strengths of San Fran (also Denver).Also, Denver has not routed many teams. At 9.5 or 10 I would think about it more.....but love getting the extra .5 to make more than 10. Dever 27 - San Fran 20 Just my 0.02.

Thanks, that is what i was asking forgood luck

I usually go very light this last week as too many odd situations arise. Will teams play hard and all their starters, etc... I really liked the Giants giving only 1.5 this week and almost lost it at the end. I don't really like much else with the exception of the Cowboys and Bengals.Happy New Year

OUCH! I had the Bengals in a teaser with the Cowboys and lost both ends.

 

[East Coast Bias]

Final Standings

13-2 East Coast Bias

12-2-1 Bankerguy

My results for the whole contest:

27-6 I only chose dogs. Of those 33 dogs 23 won outright.

 

[AB in DC]

Congrats ECB, and Bankerguy

Not the big winner, but I'm pretty happy with 15-11-1 + 9-6 = 58.3% success rate

 

[Bankerguy]

Congrats ECB.

Losing by a half a game is tough, but thats the way it goes.

 

[tomdeck]

Congrats ECB, and BankerguyNot the big winner, but I'm pretty happy with 15-11-1 + 9-6 = 58.3% success rate

Not a regular here, but followed you guys the last 6 weeks or so.. Congrats to both of you. great picks!

 

[Bankerguy]

Perhaps Joe will consider giving the two of us a chance to replace the Profit for his pay content? That would be uber cool, as we both crushed him on our picks.

I was around 70% on my picks.

 

[Bankerguy]

Oh..one more thing.

I would love to tweak this contest, by giving each person a "play bankroll", and then each of us control our weekly wagers by dollar amount. One week you could choose to bet all games or simply pass a week entirely.

I believe this would separate the men from the boys very quickly.

Money management is 75% of gambling.

 

[AB in DC]

I'd be up for that. This is the first year I've broken the 55% mark, so money management is my next challenge.

BTW, do either of you look at playoff games? Right now, the only pick that looks good (weather permitting) is Seattle-Dallas OVER 46.

 

[BassNBrew]

Final Standings13-2 East Coast Bias12-2-1 BankerguyMy results for the whole contest:27-6 I only chose dogs. Of those 33 dogs 23 won outright.

Wow!!! Major props to both of you.I got a last minute invite to duck, dove, and quail hunt at a pretty exclusive lodge and completely forgot that I hadn't made my picks.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Oh..one more thing.I would love to tweak this contest, by giving each person a "play bankroll", and then each of us control our weekly wagers by dollar amount. One week you could choose to bet all games or simply pass a week entirely. I believe this would separate the men from the boys very quickly.Money management is 75% of gambling.

That is an excellent idea. For those of us that bet, this is really all that matters. The real question is whether you bet some games heavier than others. This idea goes back and forth among bettors in that many feel that you bet the same amount no matter what and if you are not as enthused about a bet, you shouldn't put money on it.I have to admit that this year was my worst year ever for betting. In the past I usually bring in some very good money ever year. About a 1/3 come is from weekly betting and 2/3 from yearly proposition bets such as the Bears making the playoffs laying 3-1 odds or Cincinnati winning more than 8.5 games. This year I was about even on my weekly bets (56% with some teasers) and got CRUSHED in my proposition bets. At the end of the year I needed Jacksonville and Cincinnati to win 1 more game in their final 3 and they each lost out and I needed St. Louis to lose only 1 out of their last 3 for me to win and they won all 3. As an example, if you have $600 on games like this it can be a major difference between winning $600 and losing $600 plus any possible vig.When Cinci missed the FG I was ticked.I felt the team records were about as unpredictable as I have even seen and I paid dearly for my poor judgment.