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Odell Beckham 1.01 in dynasty and redraft PPR leagues in 2015? (1 Viewer)
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cstu
Footballguy
This thread is about Beckham being the #1 dynasty WR. Anyone who watches him can see that he's going to have a good career, the only question is how good and how high he should be ranked.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The comparison between Beckham and his current dynasty piers is not a comparison between guys who broke out in their 1st season vs. guys who broke out in their 2nd-4th season. The comparison is between a guy who broke out this year vs. guys who broke out 3-5 years ago and have continued to be elite ever since.
I don't know of any correlation between a 1st year breakout player vs. a 3rd year breakout player and the likelihood of them being a bust after that. That's why I'm not willing to ignore the risk with ODB any more than I was willing to ignore it with Dez Bryant or Braylon Edwards or Calvin Johnson or Victor Cruz or any player that's ever had a good season before.
Generally, I will always find a guy that's put up elite numbers for 3-4 years more likely to put up elite numbers the next year than a guy who's put up elite numbers only once before. Whether that added risk to ODB is outweighed by the extra 3-4 years he'll have on the end of his career over those guys (and extra 3-4 years as an elite trade asset if he maintains his pace) is the discussion we should be having, but instead it's boiled down to a small group of people who are adamant that risk just doesn't exist with ODB because he's "different" like so many guys before him were "different".
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Bamac
Footballguy
I can respect that position. But it seems like the general backlash to Beckham's value rise is far greater than it was with Dez.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
But which guys in the past that were "different" ended up not doing so well?
Chances are i would personally disagree that some of those guys were actually "different". Was braylon edwards different???
Chances are i would personally disagree that some of those guys were actually "different". Was braylon edwards different???
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think that backlash has more to do with the position being taken on the players than the players themselves. That is, I could be wrong but I don't think there was ever a "Dez Bryant 1.01 in dynasty and redraft in 2013" thread the year following Dez's breakout. He was the consensus #4 WR in drafts heading into 2013.
I don't think anyone in here has really contended the idea that ODB is a tier 1 WR. Rather, the disagreement has more to do with whether or not he's the number 1 overall player in fantasy football right now, a claim that was never made about Dez after his breakout year and hence, there was never a chance for people to disagree with it.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Every player that's ever had a breakout year has had some collection of people that could list off reasons why that player was different than all the other breakout players that faded away in the past. Only hindsight allows us to look back and so easily say "that guy was never really any different afterall".
That said, I do agree that ODB's claim on being "different" is better than most other guys have had. That is, his breakout rookie year was better than almost any rookie year at the position in history. Of course, the flipside to that is that it ended up being not quite the lock it seemd for players at other positions like the aforementioned RG3 at quarterback.
fredsavage
Footballguy
Rg3 is really the only player I had in mind for recent breakouts and unsustained success. There were concerns over his style of play and injury from day one, however; I don't think those same fears are warranted with ODB. I would probably take Bell or Luck alongside ODB as considerations for 1 in dynasty (edit maybe gronk), but I can't say I would be more excited to own julio or AJG.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
And every year I see a lot of the same people at the bottom of the standings in my leagues.
And every year I see mostly all the same names at the top of the standings in my leagues.
I suppose the owners who consistently do well are able to weed out the BS in all of it and do a better job of figuring out the stuff that actually matters.
Speaking only for myself, I have consistently said I view ODB as a top-tier WR, but not worth the 1.01 pick. I explained this position by citing the depth at the top of the WR ranks, along with the scarcity at other positions, by noting that ODB has only been elite for 9 games, while other young WRs have done so for multiple seasons, by noting that it isn't unheard of for WRs to get very hot, then be unable to match those stats later, and that I don't know if ODB can sustain a 70% catch rate. Despite my view of him as a top WR, I've been attacked for noting that Drew Bennett is one such WR who has had a hot stretch that he couldn't match later, for citing Eli's 59% career completion % as a reason I have doubts about ODB catching 70% of his targets, and for suggesting that it would be smarter to take a RB at 1.01 and another top WR at 2.12.
Since the thread is about whether ODB is the 1.01 pick, those are all valid reasons to NOT have him at 1.01. None of those reasons suggest he isn't a top-WR (nor have I ever suggested that he is not), but other posters insist on acting like that is what I've done.
The backlash, at least with regards to my posts in this thread, is from the pro-Beckham crowd, rather than vice-versa.
fredsavage
Footballguy
I don't think someone has faulty logic if they prefer aj or Julio as the top wr. But eventually there will be other randy moss, Barry sanders, sweetness etc
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
I think that's the interesting question -- do you have to take the traditional rb at 1.01?
calvin made inroads into teh first round, gronk + graham have pushed their position up the ladder --- is there a point at which wr can be the 1.01?
rb can be fairly volatile year to year, but who are the likeliest 1.01 candidates at rb?
bell -- drew bennett factor
peterson.........?
shady -- I'm afraidy
forte -- those 100 ppr's walked out the door with trestman
foster - injury concerns
charles?
murray -- for this discussion I'll assume he leaves
?
calvin made inroads into teh first round, gronk + graham have pushed their position up the ladder --- is there a point at which wr can be the 1.01?
rb can be fairly volatile year to year, but who are the likeliest 1.01 candidates at rb?
bell -- drew bennett factor
peterson.........?
shady -- I'm afraidy
forte -- those 100 ppr's walked out the door with trestman
foster - injury concerns
charles?
murray -- for this discussion I'll assume he leaves
?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Hasn't WR been the #1 pickin dynasty for a few years now?
Not sure what you mean "is there a point". WR at 1 is probably the best play recently, now, and for the forseeable future.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
Odell Beckham 1.01 in dynasty and redraft PPR leagues in 2015?
as for dynasty, just about all those other wr have warts that would worry me more than eli manning and drew bennett
as for dynasty, just about all those other wr have warts that would worry me more than eli manning and drew bennett
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cstu
Footballguy
I wasn't playing dynasty in 1996 but I was a Patriots fan and the consensus was that Terry Glenn was going to be a stud after his rookie year. He was an absolute stud in college, won the Biletnikoff, was the #7 pick, and proceeded to have a 90 catch rookie season.
Here's how the rookie receivers did in 1996 - Glenn outplayed future HOF'ers like Harrison and Owens.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Redraft, nah, it is definitely not a requirement to take RB at pick 1.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Yeah I remember Parcells referring to him as a female name or something. Maybe it was just when he said "she".
From what I recall Glenn's issues weren't talent related.
I forget what Glenn was like before getting to the NFL, but I suppose even the best character guys can become D-bags after money and fame get to them.
From what I recall Glenn's issues weren't talent related.
I forget what Glenn was like before getting to the NFL, but I suppose even the best character guys can become D-bags after money and fame get to them.
