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Official 1.12 Pick Strategy Thread (1 Viewer)

R

RalphMouth

Footballguy
Non ppr & ppr are all welcome to voice their thoughts and strategies.

Names that look to be there at the end of the 1st round include the following-

QB- Manning (available in about half the mocks I've done)

Rodgers

Brees

RB- Foster

DeMarco Murray

Montee Ball

Le'Veon Bell

WR- Dez Bryant (available in 50% of the mocks I've done)

AJ Green

Brandon Marshall

Julio Jones

Demaryius Thomas (available in roughly 20% of mocks I've done)

(I have yet to see Calvin Johnson available at the 12th overall pick in any mock)

TE- Jimmy Graham has not been there in any mocks I've done.

For myself I can't take a QB this early as the position is deep this year. Sure Manning won leagues on his own last year but a dip in stats will happen. So I either go best RB and best WR (Murray and Marshall for example) or the Stud WR Theory (Marshall and Green for example) Running backs at this point are not worth it to me to take the best two.

 
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I'll play.

I'd ride with Ball and Bryant. Think Ball either matches or reaches 90% of Moreno's production from 2013, which should have him in the Top 6 RB.

Dez figures to have another monster year and still has yet to hit his ceiling.

 
No question, you go with Dez, Damaryius, Marshall, Julio, or AJ - in that order.

At 1.12, you're past the 1st tier of running backs, with most of the 1st tier wide receivers still available.

 
cloppbeast said:
No question, you go with Dez, Damaryius, Marshall, Julio, or AJ - in that order.

At 1.12, you're past the 1st tier of running backs, with most of the 1st tier wide receivers still available.
Click to expand...
Good post, mostly agree. The only thing that would give me pause is if Manning was still there.

Productive RBs always seem to come put of the woodwork and are usually never the guys drafted at the top of the first round, other than Peterson.

 
cloppbeast said:
No question, you go with Dez, Damaryius, Marshall, Julio, or AJ - in that order.

At 1.12, you're past the 1st tier of running backs, with most of the 1st tier wide receivers still available.
Click to expand...
so if you go WR, WR what RB's will you expect at the end or the 3rd/early 4th rounds ?

 
cloppbeast said:
No question, you go with Dez, Damaryius, Marshall, Julio, or AJ - in that order.

At 1.12, you're past the 1st tier of running backs, with most of the 1st tier wide receivers still available.
Click to expand...
Just took Thomas and Bryant there and I will probably take 2 more WRs with my next 2 picks as well (giving the zero rb theory a try)

 
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You can't win your league with the first round pick but you sure can lose it. Even if everything breaks right for Bell/Demarco/Ball, what are the chances of them outperforming the 12th pick?

Feeling much more comfortable going with an WR/WR at the end of the 1st round and beginning of the 2nd.

 
I've been doing a lot of mocks from this position and usually go Dez and Julio.

Your praying one of Spiller/Ellington/Stacy ( this actually happened to me ) fall then your looking at Gerhart/Jennings/Tate/Sankey/Rice/Matthews/Johnson/Richardson et al.

I've tended to grab Steven Jackson a round later then try and get Davonta Freeman as well later on as some kind of insurance policy of Atlanta RB points incase Jackson goes down or gets usurped.

Will try and grab people like West later on in the hopes of hitting pay dirt.

 
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TheFootballJesus said:
You can't win your league with the first round pick but you sure can lose it. Even if everything breaks right for Bell/Demarco/Ball, what are the chances of them outperforming the 12th pick?

Feeling much more comfortable going with an WR/WR at the end of the 1st round and beginning of the 2nd.
Click to expand...
I'd take Demarco Murray there. He has a great chance of out-performing his ADP in my opinion. He is positioned very similarly to the way Matt Forte was last season. All he has to do is stay healthy and he should catch 65+ passes. Monster potential in PPR leagues.

Can't go wrong with any of those WRs either and I wouldn't pass on them for any other RB than Murray.

(Murray also has a super cheap handcuff with Lance Dunbar, so you can greatly mitigate your injury risk. Dunbar would produce very well if Murray was to miss extended time.)

 
TartanLion said:
I've been doing a lot of mocks from this position and usually go Dez and Julio.

Your praying one of Spiller/Ellington/Stacy ( this actually happened to me ) fall then your looking at Gerhart/Jennings/Tate/Sankey/Rice/Matthews/Johnson/Richardson et al.

I've tended to grab Steven Jackson a round later then try and get Davonta Freeman as well later on as some kind of insurance policy of Atlanta RB points incase Jackson goes down or gets usurped.

Will try and grab people like West later on in the hopes of hitting pay dirt.
Click to expand...
Not sure I would be comfortable knowing that either Spiller, Ellington or Stacy would be my #1 RB .... :o

I do like Steven Jackson where he can be drafted. Maybe Jennings would be a good RB in the 3/4th round ??

This season I'm struggling on what to do in this slot.

 
RalphMouth said:
Not sure I would be comfortable knowing that either Spiller, Ellington or Stacy would be my #1 RB .... :o

I do like Steven Jackson where he can be drafted. Maybe Jennings would be a good RB in the 3/4th round ??

This season I'm struggling on what to do in this slot.
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At least one of your starters will lack appeal, whether your QB1, WR1-3, or your TE1. Why is it such a big deal if it's your RB1? Why would you feel less 'comfortable' to have Victor Cruz as your WR1?

To me, it's an arbitrary distinction to place more emphasis on your running back. You're better off to let the flow of the draft dictate. You will certainly have a less than ideal starter some where; if you try to pigeon-hole it to a certain position, you drag the rest of your roster down.

 
did more mocks over the weekend-

WR/WR intrigues me especially IF I could get Thomas and Dez (highly unlikely) or even one of those with AJ Green or Marshall

but I would really have to make sure the RBs in the 3rd or 4th hit (Gerhart ?? Jennings ?) or else I could be a long season,,,

 
I like the thought of going WR/WR but it's really difficult for me for a couple reasons. The main reason is I love a lot of the mid round WR's. I feel like every mock I've done, I've been able to land guys I really like that I think could put up solid WR2 numbers all year long. If I go WR/WR then I can't do this because I'm loading up on boom/bust RB's and I also don't really need any more WR's.

You are pretty much forced to spend rounds 3/4 on RB so you'll end up with Jennings, Gerhart, Sankey, Bell as your RB1 and RB2. Then you probably need to spend one more in rounds 5/6 to land another decent prospect like Tate, Rice, CJ, TRich.

I hate the fact that I have to basically spend 3 out of 4 of those middle round picks on RB. Usually in those rounds there is a guy that's slipping that you should take. If that guy is a WR or QB or TE, you're basically screwed.

Now if you start out RB/RB with Murray/Ball/Foster/Gio then you can take your chances loading up at WR in 3/4/5/6. You can get guys like Cobb, Garcon, Cruz, Percy, Floyd, Wright, Maclin, Sanders. I feel like all of those guys could flirt with WR1 numbers all year. Also, if a stud TE or QB ends up slipping you can take him because you can easily make up for WRs later in the draft.

 
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  1. I go

WR- Marshall
WR- Julio
RB- hope Ellington or stacy or spiller fall
RB- gerhart/sankey/jennings
WR- wright/julian/ if floyd some how falls
RB- i doubt jennings falls to here or take thomas and get a ppr
RB- maybe Woodhead or West
 
ebsteelers said:
  1. I go
  2. WR- Marshall
  3. WR- Julio
  4. RB- hope Ellington or stacy or spiller fall
  5. RB- gerhart/sankey/jennings
  6. WR- wright/julian/ if floyd some how falls
  7. RB- i doubt jennings falls to here or take thomas and get a ppr
  8. RB- maybe Woodhead or West
Click to expand...
are you not looking at QB until the 9th round ?

 
Gotta go stud WR unless one of the top 7-8 RBs fall. Huge drop off at RB this year. Chances are the teams who drafted a top 5 RB are going to get a good WR in the second. Might as well be better at WR than they are.

 
I'm now changing my mind on WR/WR to RB/WR as long as Ball, Foster or Murray are there because I'm really not liking what's left come 3rd and 4th rounds RB wise PLUS there are a slew of WRs in the 3rd/4th that could be gold such as Crabtree, Cruz, Harvin, Allen ..ALL who are #1 WRs for their teams.

 
2 stud wr's. Then I'm drafting 2 of the spiller, Ellington, sankey, gerhart, Jennings, Stacey. I think all of these guys could outperform Murray or ball. If I miss on one of them, at least it wasn't my first round pick.

 
Very happy going RB/RB there this year. Think the QB and WR options that are left 3/4 and 5/6 are more than viable enough to compete for QB1 and WR1 status by year's end. Think the RB's left there make me nauseous -- doubly so if there's an unexpected rush on them, which seems entirely possible this season.

 
Good discussion.

FWIW, according to these ADPs, at 36-37 you could get RB 17-18 or WR 11-14: http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/overall.php

So, taking the QBs out of it, your choices would be:

2 of DT, Foster, Dez, Ball, Murray, Green, Marshall, Julio

and 2 of VJax, Fitz, Spiller, Andre Johnson, Matthews, Allen, Garcon

So I think pick your favorite combo out of there to start with. I think that I would probably most prefer to take Murray and Ball in the first round and then come back with Andre Johnson and whichever other receiver is there. I don't think that Matthews is worth that price and I'm not sure that I want to gamble on Spiller being there. The drop-off to the next RB is FRank Gore at 46, and when you come back to 60-61, you are at RB 24-25 for possibly one of your starters.

However, if DT and Dez were both there in the first, I could definitely get behind that and just try to hit on some RBs late, maybe hope Julius Thomas is at 36-37.

Dez or Green + Murray wouldn't be bad if you are concerned about the appendectomy, but if Spiller and JT are gone at 36, I would have a tough time deciding who to go with aside from a WR. I guess if it's a 3 WR league, maybe you just shore that up and then hope for the best later.

 
I'll go Dez/AJ - even if there's no RB you're excited about the next time around, there will be injury waiver wire finds mid season.

 
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1 Demaryius Thomas Brandon Marshall Arian Foster2 Giovani Bernard (3RB) Zac Stacy C.J. Spiller3 Shane Vereen (3RB) Victor Cruz Rashad Jennings4 Bishop Sankey Toby Gerhart Stevan Ridley5 Pierre Thomas 6 Reggie Wayne Emmanuel Sanders Marques Colston7 Hakeem Nicks Terrence Williams Mike Wallace8 QB 9 Brandin Cooks 10 11 Khiry Robinson Kenny Stills Jeremy Hill (SD)12 Ahmad Bradshaw Carlos Hyde 13 Jordan Matthews Ka′Deem Carey Bryce Brown Black dot- in process draft selections

 
At this point in time the only way I go WR, WR is if I get DT and Dez which is highly unlikely. So then I need to figure out which RB at 12th or 13th will be the best.

M. Ball- He was going before 12th in most mocks but his surgery has dropped him to where he might be available. If healthy he will 'fall into the endzone'

at least 8-10 times with manning under center.

D. Murray- IF Murray can stay healthy he's a stud. He ended last season with 6 quality starts out of his last 7 games. However, he has yet to play all 16

games in a season.

A. Foster- Will be the focal point on offense IF he can stay healthy which already looks bad due to an early hammy.

anybody else you would consider running back wise at the 12th or 13th slot ?

 
RalphMouth said:
ebsteelers said:
  1. I go
  2. WR- Marshall
  3. WR- Julio
  4. RB- hope Ellington or stacy or spiller fall
  5. RB- gerhart/sankey/jennings
  6. WR- wright/julian/ if floyd some how falls
  7. RB- i doubt jennings falls to here or take thomas and get a ppr
  8. RB- maybe Woodhead or West
Click to expand...
are you not looking at QB until the 9th round ?
Click to expand...
Cutler, Rivers, Roethlisberger, maybe Wilson are available that late. Very viable options at QB.

 
montana_grizzly_bears said:
RalphMouth said:
ebsteelers said:
  1. I go
  2. WR- Marshall
  3. WR- Julio
  4. RB- hope Ellington or stacy or spiller fall
  5. RB- gerhart/sankey/jennings
  6. WR- wright/julian/ if floyd some how falls
  7. RB- i doubt jennings falls to here or take thomas and get a ppr
  8. RB- maybe Woodhead or West
Click to expand...
are you not looking at QB until the 9th round ?
Click to expand...
Cutler, Rivers, Roethlisberger, maybe Wilson are available that late. Very viable options at QB.
Click to expand...
not saying that's a bad move... got to think if you get Cutler in the 9th ( I'm starting to see him going no later than the 8th round in recent mocks) then you must follow up with Roethlisberger in the 10th due to Cutler's injury history-

 
RalphMouth said:
ebsteelers said:
  1. I go
  2. WR- Marshall
  3. WR- Julio
  4. RB- hope Ellington or stacy or spiller fall
  5. RB- gerhart/sankey/jennings
  6. WR- wright/julian/ if floyd some how falls
  7. RB- i doubt jennings falls to here or take thomas and get a ppr
  8. RB- maybe Woodhead or West
Click to expand...
are you not looking at QB until the 9th round ?
Click to expand...
no cause qbs have been falling and will keep falling as people do the late qb approach.

how in the world are guys getting dez and demrayius at 12/13?

who the heck is getting picked before than ?

I havent seen one draft so far that either of them fall that far but thats incredible if you can get them both. let alone one at 12

 
RalphMouth said:
montana_grizzly_bears said:
RalphMouth said:
ebsteelers said:
  1. I go
  2. WR- Marshall
  3. WR- Julio
  4. RB- hope Ellington or stacy or spiller fall
  5. RB- gerhart/sankey/jennings
  6. WR- wright/julian/ if floyd some how falls
  7. RB- i doubt jennings falls to here or take thomas and get a ppr
  8. RB- maybe Woodhead or West
Click to expand...
are you not looking at QB until the 9th round ?
Click to expand...
Cutler, Rivers, Roethlisberger, maybe Wilson are available that late. Very viable options at QB.
Click to expand...
not saying that's a bad move... got to think if you get Cutler in the 9th ( I'm starting to see him going no later than the 8th round in recent mocks) then you must follow up with Roethlisberger in the 10th due to Cutler's injury history-
Click to expand...
I am not sure why kind of leagues anyone plays in but Ryan has been there, Wilson , Kap, Newton Romo, along with ben cutler etc.

obviously every draft is different im not against taking Manning/Rodgers/Brees at the 3/4 turn. if i started Murray/Green/Roddy or Allen..

but i can see at 12

wr/wr green/marshall

3/4 rb/rb maybe spiller/gerhart

im really interested in this as both drafts that are for big money im in the 12 spot..

its amazing to me i've done a bunch of drafts and yet i got the one pick once, 2nd pick 0,,, and 12 pick more than 5 or 6 times

 
ebsteelers said:
RalphMouth said:
montana_grizzly_bears said:
RalphMouth said:
ebsteelers said:
  1. I go
  2. WR- Marshall
  3. WR- Julio
  4. RB- hope Ellington or stacy or spiller fall
  5. RB- gerhart/sankey/jennings
  6. WR- wright/julian/ if floyd some how falls
  7. RB- i doubt jennings falls to here or take thomas and get a ppr
  8. RB- maybe Woodhead or West
Click to expand...
are you not looking at QB until the 9th round ?
Click to expand...
Cutler, Rivers, Roethlisberger, maybe Wilson are available that late. Very viable options at QB.
Click to expand...
not saying that's a bad move... got to think if you get Cutler in the 9th ( I'm starting to see him going no later than the 8th round in recent mocks) then you must follow up with Roethlisberger in the 10th due to Cutler's injury history-
Click to expand...
I am not sure why kind of leagues anyone plays in but Ryan has been there, Wilson , Kap, Newton Romo, along with ben cutler etc.

obviously every draft is different im not against taking Manning/Rodgers/Brees at the 3/4 turn. if i started Murray/Green/Roddy or Allen..
Click to expand...
I am also not opposed to picking one of the top 3 QBs 2 rounds below their ADP.

 
kyoun1e said:
There is no way Ellington is there for you.

Spiller if you're lucky.

WR/WR leaves you with zilch at RB.
Click to expand...
I'm still going stud WR/WR and taking my chances with some of these: Mathews, Sankey, Rice, J. bell

#12 also gets you first waiver wire priority in most leagues, and there will always be a breakout RB.

 
dont forget guys like woodhead/ thomas etc. who can be just fine as a ppr rb .

with the advantage you'll have over most with your wide outs you just need to have your backs be in the ball park.

you could have something like Julio/Green

and your rbs be gerhart, maybe spiller or vereen, thomas and woodhead

 
If its PPR

Charles

Mccoy

Peterson

Forte

Graham

Calvin

thats 6

Lacy 7

DT 8

I guess if someone goes

Gronk 9

Ball 10

Julio 11

would be a way to get Dez at 12 but seems like you need a lot of reaching in a ppr league for that to happen.

 
This is a great year to be drafting at the back end of the draft. Out of the 11 or 12 hole, you are guaranteed two of these guys:

Charles

McCoy

AP

Forte

Lacy

Ball

Graham

D. Thomas

Dez

AJ

Julio

Murray

Marshall

Any two of those guys is a darn good start to a draft. This is one of the better years in recent memory to be picking late.

 
ebsteelers said:
If its PPR

Charles

Mccoy

Peterson

Forte

Graham

Calvin

thats 6

Lacy 7

DT 8

I guess if someone goes

Gronk 9

Ball 10

Julio 11

would be a way to get Dez at 12 but seems like you need a lot of reaching in a ppr league for that to happen.
Click to expand...
Someone usually takes Peyton in the first. People around here will scoff at that and say manly things like "play in a real league", but it's just a simple fact that in most leagues someone will reach for the top QB.

 
Had 12th today in ppr and 4 point passing td tonight. Start 1Qb, 1RB, 1WR, 2RB/WR Flex, 1TE, 1PK, 1 DEF

1st- Brandon Marshall: megatron, dt, dez, green and julio went along with Jimmy and top 5 rb's

2nd- Aaron Rodgers: pulled the trigger here on a QB, took a chance.

3rd- Reggie Bush

4th- Alfred Morris: these 2 were last of their tier left at RB.

5th- Kendall Wright: Hilton went 2 picks before this

6th- Toby Gerhart: was between Rice and Gerhart

7th- Dennis Pitta: feel he will outplay this by a wide margin

8th- Seattle Defense: why not. Felt this was best value

9th- Kelvin Benjamin: Personal favorite this year- I am probable buying into hype to much

10th- San Francisco Def: BPA- really didn't need em but why let someone else have em

11th- Deangelo Williams- Bye week fill in if Gerhart doesn't work out or trade bait

12th- Tyler Eifert- Thought about kicker but decided to wait.

13th- Andrew Hawkins- Should stand out in Cleveland

14th- Joe Flacco- Back up QB

15th- Andre Holmes- meh,

16th- Mason Crosby- needed a kicker and he should get points.

 
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montana_grizzly_bears said:
Had 12th today in ppr and 4 point passing td tonight. Start 1Qb, 1RB, 1WR, 2RB/WR Flex, 1TE, 1PK, 1 DEF

1st- Brandon Marshall: megatron, dt, dez, green and julio went along with Jimmy and top 5 rb's

2nd- Aaron Rodgers: pulled the trigger here on a QB, took a chance.

3rd- Reggie Bush

4th- Alfred Morris: these 2 were last of their tier left at RB.

5th- Kendall Wright: Hilton went 2 picks before this

6th- Toby Gerhart: was between Rice and Gerhart

7th- Dennis Pitta: feel he will outplay this by a wide margin

8th- Seattle Defense: why not. Felt this was best value

9th- Kelvin Benjamin: Personal favorite this year- I am probable buying into hype to much

10th- San Francisco Def: BPA- really didn't need em but why let someone else have em

11th- Deangelo Williams- Bye week fill in if Gerhart doesn't work out or trade bait

12th- Tyler Eifert- Thought about kicker but decided to wait.

13th- Andrew Hawkins- Should stand out in Cleveland

14th- Joe Flacco- Back up QB

15th- Andre Holmes- meh,

16th- Mason Crosby- needed a kicker and he should get points.
Click to expand...
taking a QB in the 13th overall pick is going to kill you unless Rogers has a 45+ TD year (he won't)

Wright is good for PPR but I'd rather have him as my #3 WR/Flex. You could have landed a great WR at #13 and get a good QB in the 5th (Brady, Ryan, Luck) You might be OK but with QB scoring at 4 points per TD waiting for one would have been the way to go.

 
I'm having a hard time with the turn in rounds 3 and 4 and picks 36 and 37.

RB is especially tough. If looking for a RB, the likes of Ellington, Stacy, Spiller, Morris, Martin, and Bush (blech) are gone. That leaves you "reaching" for the following backs at either pick: T. Gerhart, S. Vereen, R. Jennings (rising), B. Sankey, R. Mathews. Just not good value there at all to me.

A lot to choose from at WR potentially: K. Allen, V. Cruz, L. Fitz, and A. Johnson to name a few. Really lots of WRs I consider of equal value littered about here from pick 30 through round 5. But that's the problem. You may as well wait on WR...tons to pick from.

J. Cameron usually hanging around in here but still, way ahead of his ADP and kind of a reach.

Really, really hate the 3/4 turn. Done tons of mocks. Nothing of value seems to fall in your lap.

 
At 60/61, I think that Chris Johnson,TRich or Ray Rice are good value. Even Ben Tate or Vereen. I like all of these guys better than any of the WR I see around there. (Hilton or Floyd could be considered)

So I think that at 36/37, I would be targeting Fitz, VJax or Andre Johnson (or even other WR if necessary). They have better VBD values than any of the RB and I have them slightly ahead of the next tier or WR.

Based on that, I'd probably look for Murray at 12 and Dez or AJ Green or possibly even Rodgers or Brees at 13. I know people hate the QB that early, but if you look at their VBD values, Manning, Rodgers and Brees are top 15 values.

 
I can see your point. VBD certainly leans towards a shortage of RBs. You also have to factor in how many you can start: just 2 WRs? Or more at Flex? If you can only start 2, I'd go RB/WR at 12 and 13. If everyone must start 3 WR, like my league, I still feel better locking up two stud WRs right off the bat.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
At 60/61, I think that Chris Johnson,TRich or Ray Rice are good value. Even Ben Tate or Vereen. I like all of these guys better than any of the WR I see around there. (Hilton or Floyd could be considered)

So I think that at 36/37, I would be targeting Fitz, VJax or Andre Johnson (or even other WR if necessary). They have better VBD values than any of the RB and I have them slightly ahead of the next tier or WR.

Based on that, I'd probably look for Murray at 12 and Dez or AJ Green or possibly even Rodgers or Brees at 13. I know people hate the QB that early, but if you look at their VBD values, Manning, Rodgers and Brees are top 15 values.
Click to expand...
Yup, Fitz, VJax, and AJohnson are all there at 36 per ADP and in mocks. I don't see much upside with any of these guys.

Fitz -- Does Floyd pass him this year as the #1?

AJ -- R. Fitz. doesn't inspire much confidence and fear that offense could be a trainwreck in general.

VJax -- Too up and down for my liking. Not a believer in McCown and their schedule looks tough.

K. Allen probably my target there. CBS default rankings have pushed him way down.

Really loathe to reach for R. Jennings or B. Sankey in round 4 at 37, but it may have to happen.

 
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