Official 1.12 Pick Strategy Thread (1 Viewer)

[MattFancy]

I can see your point. VBD certainly leans towards a shortage of RBs. You also have to factor in how many you can start: just 2 WRs? Or more at Flex? If you can only start 2, I'd go RB/WR at 12 and 13. If everyone must start 3 WR, like my league, I still feel better locking up two stud WRs right off the bat.

I keep going back and forth on this.

In one of my leagues that I'm drafting from the 12-spot in, we start 3 WRs and it's a .5 PPR. Definitely leaning toward starting WR/WR and hoping to land at least 2 of Bryant/Thomas/Green/Jones/Marshall. I would think I've got a pretty good shot at that. Then coming back again in the 3rd with another WR and depending on what is there either going for a 4th WR or going RB. I think outside of the top 5 or 6 RBs, they're all pretty equal in upside/risk to me.

In the other league I'm drafting from the 12 spot in, we also start 3 WRs and it's a full PPR. However, we also have keepers involved. My 2 keepers are going to be Lacy and Joquie Bell. This will allow me to use my first 2/3 picks on WR and be set early with WR and RB. I'm hoping to land at least 2 of those WRs I listed above again at the turn. If I can land a combo of 2 of those 5 WRs, plus Lacy and Bell, I'd feel really good about my team without having gotten far in the draft.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I'm having a hard time with the turn in rounds 3 and 4 and picks 36 and 37.

RB is especially tough. If looking for a RB, the likes of Ellington, Stacy, Spiller, Morris, Martin, and Bush (blech) are gone. That leaves you "reaching" for the following backs at either pick: T. Gerhart, S. Vereen, R. Jennings (rising), B. Sankey, R. Mathews. Just not good value there at all to me.

A lot to choose from at WR potentially: K. Allen, V. Cruz, L. Fitz, and A. Johnson to name a few. Really lots of WRs I consider of equal value littered about here from pick 30 through round 5. But that's the problem. You may as well wait on WR...tons to pick from.

J. Cameron usually hanging around in here but still, way ahead of his ADP and kind of a reach.

Really, really hate the 3/4 turn. Done tons of mocks. Nothing of value seems to fall in your lap.

vereen, jennings, or cj?k would probably be alright, or maybe a wr like cruz or patterson.

I'm not a cameron believer, but you could just start dipping down into your list that might normally go a little later --- the point is to get the guys you like, not draft them exactly where some mock draft adp list places them.

there are always guys in the middle rounds I wish I had more picks for.

bloom was on his couch the other day pimping the idea of doubling up on elite te --- what does everybody think about a graham/gronk (thomas) on the first turn, if you could get it, vs 2x wr?

 

[kyoun1e]

I'm having a hard time with the turn in rounds 3 and 4 and picks 36 and 37.

RB is especially tough. If looking for a RB, the likes of Ellington, Stacy, Spiller, Morris, Martin, and Bush (blech) are gone. That leaves you "reaching" for the following backs at either pick: T. Gerhart, S. Vereen, R. Jennings (rising), B. Sankey, R. Mathews. Just not good value there at all to me.

A lot to choose from at WR potentially: K. Allen, V. Cruz, L. Fitz, and A. Johnson to name a few. Really lots of WRs I consider of equal value littered about here from pick 30 through round 5. But that's the problem. You may as well wait on WR...tons to pick from.

J. Cameron usually hanging around in here but still, way ahead of his ADP and kind of a reach.

Really, really hate the 3/4 turn. Done tons of mocks. Nothing of value seems to fall in your lap.

vereen, jennings, or cj?k would probably be alright, or maybe a wr like cruz or patterson.

I'm not a cameron believer, but you could just start dipping down into your list that might normally go a little later --- the point is to get the guys you like, not draft them exactly where some mock draft adp list places them.

there are always guys in the middle rounds I wish I had more picks for.

bloom was on his couch the other day pimping the idea of doubling up on elite te --- what does everybody think about a graham/gronk (thomas) on the first turn, if you could get it, vs 2x wr?

I feel like the 2 TE strategy at the turn will have me playing catchup on RBs and WRs the rest of the draft.

Feeling more and more that the 3 and 4 turn will have me looking at B. Sankey...especially if he lights it up a bit more in preseason games 2 and 3. As a NE fan, I just can't pull the trigger on Vereen -- injured every year, J. White a real threat to both Ridley and Vereen, and you just can't trust Bill B.

And Gerhart scares the crap out of me.

 

[MattFancy]

So had my first draft last night from the 12-spot. 12-team .5 PPR. 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 W/R/T, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DST

12. Montee Ball

13. Demaryius Thomas

36. Rob Gronkowski

37. Andre Johnson

60. Joquie Bell

61. Shane Vereen

84. Tony Romo

85. Golden Tate

108. Pierre Thomas

109. Ben Roethlisberger

132. Jordan Matthews

133. Christine Michael

156. Heath Miller

157. New England

180. Steven Hauschka

181. Tre Mason

204. Cody Latimer

Lineup looks like:

Romo

Thomas/Johnson/Tate

Ball/Bell/Vereen

Gronk

Hauschka

New England

 

[Hot Diggity Dog]

My last mock I went Thomas and Des and then came back with spiller and Ellington. Seems like some explosive possibilities.

There is no way Ellington is there for you.

Spiller if you're lucky.

WR/WR leaves you with zilch at RB.

Depends entirely on league. If only Calvin goes in the first and the 12 spot takes two wrs you only need one other guy to take a WR and start a run. Most leagues you should be able to draft rbs in the 16 plus range.

 

[ponchsox]

Gotta go WR/WR without question.

 

[Hot Diggity Dog]

Even if your league mates take 22 rbs that leaves you a chance to load up at either QB and te or another WR. People drafting rbs at the end of 1st round is a classic example of drafting at the end of a run.

 

[ponchsox]

Even if your league mates take 22 rbs that leaves you a chance to load up at either QB and te or another WR. People drafting rbs at the end of 1st round is a classic example of drafting at the end of a run.

Yep. You get RB7 and the top 4 teams get RB1-4 paired with a top WR. You're already behind the eight ball

 

[steveski]

When your drafting at the turn you have to kind of ignore the "run" philosophy. You have to pick knowing that you're going 22 more picks without another pick. Who cares what the last few picks were, what matters is what all the 22 picks were/are going to be. Dodging runs is great when you're going 11 picks at a time. I think when you're picks are this far apart, you have to look at tiers more. If you avoid RB's in the first 2 rounds you aren't grabbing a RB until the 18th off the board. Also, right around RB 15 or so is when I see a significant drop off. At that point I feel like players are a crapshoot. You're not picking whether guys will finish in the top 10 or not (Martin, Stacy, Ellington), you're picking guys that you don't even know if they'll be rostered by the end of the year and if they are they could be desperate flex plays (Jennings, Gerhart, Tate)

I really am starting to dislike the RB's after the midpoint of the 3rd round more and more and it's making it very difficult for me to want to start WR/WR.

So here's a quick breakdown of the players you get and where they scored last year if they finish where they did this year:

RB/WR/RB/WR

1.12 RB7 205

2.01 WR4 209

3.12 WR12 171

4.01 RB18 157

= 742 points

WR/WR/RB/RB

1.12 WR4 209

2.01 WR5 206

3.12 RB18 157

4.01 RB19 147

= 719 points

RB/RB/WR/WR

1.12 RB7 205

2.01 RB8 204

3.12 WR12 171

4.01 WR13 165

= 745 points

So it looks like going RB early or alternating RB/WR scores the most points. The problem with this and the reason that this isn't super helpful is because there's no guarantee the guys finish where they are drafted. In my opinion, picking where RB's will finish is much more difficult than predicting where WR's will finish and I get that's the idea behind taking studs at WR. So going forward, let's assume the WR's we drafted score exactly the same as they were drafted. So if we assume that RB is the only uncertainty, then it comes down to this question:

What is the risk/chance your RB7/RB8 performs like a RB7/RB8 or close to it?

What is the risk/chance your RB8/RB19 performs like a RB18/RB19 or close to it?

I don't have an answer for you, but I think if you break it down, that's what this comes down to when deciding how to start off your draft. It may come down to who falls to you at RB7/RB8 and how risky you feel they are.

 

[WaterTree]

Hi Guys, I'm coming up on my draft next Monday and I sit 1.12. It's a PPR 1pt, 3-WR, 1-Flex, Passing TDs worth 6.

I really like the WR/WR route off the bat, but there's a one outcome I don't like very much. If round one goes like this, who do you pick for 1.12 & 2.01?

(in no particular order)

Charles

McCoy

Forte

Johnson

Thomas

Graham

AP

Green

Marshall

Bryant

The top 5 RBs and top 5 WRs are off the board by now.

You are left with Jones/Brown/Nelson as your options, picking two. I like Jones, but not the other two so high in the draft.

You could grab a RB: Murray/Martin/Foster/Lynch/Ball/Bell/Bernard, but these guys are down from the Tier 1 running backs, and a couple of these guys worry me.

Manning/Rodgers are also still on the board, so either is a possibility...

What do you do? Go!

-WT

 

[Gawain]

Hi Guys, I'm coming up on my draft next Monday and I sit 1.12. It's a PPR 1pt, 3-WR, 1-Flex, Passing TDs worth 6.

I really like the WR/WR route off the bat, but there's a one outcome I don't like very much. If round one goes like this, who do you pick for 1.12 & 2.01?

(in no particular order)

Charles

McCoy

Forte

Johnson

Thomas

Graham

AP

Green

Marshall

Bryant

The top 5 RBs and top 5 WRs are off the board by now.

You are left with Jones/Brown/Nelson as your options, picking two. I like Jones, but not the other two so high in the draft.

You could grab a RB: Murray/Martin/Foster/Lynch/Ball/Bell/Bernard, but these guys are down from the Tier 1 running backs, and a couple of these guys worry me.

Manning/Rodgers are also still on the board, so either is a possibility...

What do you do? Go!

-WT

The above is pretty easy for me to go Lynch/Jones.

I had one draft at 1.12 and went WR/WR (Bryant and Green).

Martin fell to 3.12, but there was nothing else at RB. Took Luck and hated it.

Then Cameron and V-Jax at 5.12 and 6.01 because the RBs were so thin.

My RB 2 is some conglomeration of Lamar Miller, S-Jax, Ingram, Hyde or Hill.

In a 16 round draft I took 10 running backs. If I could do it again I'd have gone Bryant/Ball. It gives you more options at 3.12/4.01.

 

[LittlePhatty]

I was seriously thinking about WR/WR, but I've decided I don't like the RB options in later rounds. I think Murray or Ball is a good pick to pair with whichever WR is left.

 

[WaterTree]

I was seriously thinking about WR/WR, but I've decided I don't like the RB options in later rounds. I think Murray or Ball is a good pick to pair with whichever WR is left.

Yeah, I think you have to take the WR that is left and couple with Murray/Lynch/Ball. I personally lean toward Ball.

If two of these guys are left (dez, thomas, green, jones, marshall), you take those two and go WR/WR.

-WT

 

[ebsteelers]

drafting from the 12 spot now in a terminator draft will post the results when its over.

 

[ebsteelers]

Round 1: Demarco Murray

Round 2: AJ Green (Julio was available here)

Round 3: Victor Cruz

Round 4: Roddy White

Round 5: Ryan Mathews

Round 6: Bishop Sankey

Round 7: Eric Decker

Round 8: Nick Foles

Round 9: DeAndre Hopkins

Round 10: Dwayne Allen

Round 11: Ruben Randle

Round 12: Carlos Hyde

Round 13: Jace Amaro

Round 14: Tavon Austin

Round 15: Donald Brown

Round 16: Andrew Hawkins

Round 17: Tre Mason

Round 18: Steelers Defense

Round 19: Josh Brown

Round 20: Caleb Sturgis

Round 21:EJ Manuel

Round 22emetrius Harris

Round 23: Cody Latimer

Round 24: Jets Defense

Round 25: Matt Schaub

Round 26: Brandon Bolden

hope this helps some other guys.

as a note.. in the first round it was between aj, murray and julio. i have too many shares of julio current those the reason for going aj and murray. every combo was in play until i hit the draft button though

 

[RalphMouth]

I was seriously thinking about WR/WR, but I've decided I don't like the RB options in later rounds. I think Murray or Ball is a good pick to pair with whichever WR is left.

This is what I'm leaning towards right now. Going RB/WR certainly gives you the best options for the remainder of the draft. Going WR/WR tends to handcuff you to where you must take a RB ...maybe even both at picks 4 and 5.

 

[need2know]

I think I may go rb rb as old school as it sounds. Looks like murray, ball, and lynch could be there. I would happily take 2 of those and take the 2 best wr in rounds 3 and 4. It always looks better to me than hoping for a decent rb to fall. Of course, if I can't get 2 rbs I like I would take a top wr no question

 

[dickey moe]

Round 1: Demarco Murray

Round 2: AJ Green (Julio was available here)

Round 3: Victor Cruz

Round 4: Roddy White

Round 5: Ryan Mathews

Round 6: Bishop Sankey

Round 7: Eric Decker

Round 8: Nick Foles

Round 9: DeAndre Hopkins

Round 10: Dwayne Allen

Round 11: Ruben Randle

Round 12: Carlos Hyde

Round 13: Jace Amaro

Round 14: Tavon Austin

Round 15: Donald Brown

Round 16: Andrew Hawkins

Round 17: Tre Mason

Round 18: Steelers Defense

Round 19: Josh Brown

Round 20: Caleb Sturgis

Round 21:EJ Manuel

Round 22emetrius Harris

Round 23: Cody Latimer

Round 24: Jets Defense

Round 25: Matt Schaub

Round 26: Brandon Bolden

hope this helps some other guys.

as a note.. in the first round it was between aj, murray and julio. i have too many shares of julio current those the reason for going aj and murray. every combo was in play until i hit the draft button though

I like your RBs and WRs but hate your QBs and TEs. Did no value fall to you at those positions? Was this a 16-team league?Edit: saw that you drafted Foles, so that is better but still have questions about those TEs.

 

[jumper]

I'm having a hard time with the turn in rounds 3 and 4 and picks 36 and 37.

RB is especially tough. If looking for a RB, the likes of Ellington, Stacy, Spiller, Morris, Martin, and Bush (blech) are gone. That leaves you "reaching" for the following backs at either pick: T. Gerhart, S. Vereen, R. Jennings (rising), B. Sankey, R. Mathews. Just not good value there at all to me.

A lot to choose from at WR potentially: K. Allen, V. Cruz, L. Fitz, and A. Johnson to name a few. Really lots of WRs I consider of equal value littered about here from pick 30 through round 5. But that's the problem. You may as well wait on WR...tons to pick from.

J. Cameron usually hanging around in here but still, way ahead of his ADP and kind of a reach.

Really, really hate the 3/4 turn. Done tons of mocks. Nothing of value seems to fall in your lap.

vereen, jennings, or cj?k would probably be alright, or maybe a wr like cruz or patterson.

I'm not a cameron believer, but you could just start dipping down into your list that might normally go a little later --- the point is to get the guys you like, not draft them exactly where some mock draft adp list places them.

there are always guys in the middle rounds I wish I had more picks for.

bloom was on his couch the other day pimping the idea of doubling up on elite te --- what does everybody think about a graham/gronk (thomas) on the first turn, if you could get it, vs 2x wr?

CJ?K or Rice at the 4.1 seems like a big reach and they're unlikely to be there at the 5/6 turn, in 90+% of the mocks I've done both go in the mid 40s to mid 50s.. Besides Ryan Mathews is almost always there at the 3/4 turn and I'd be hard pressed to pass on him in favor of CJ or Rice. Getting Ridley or SJax at the 5.12 seems about a 1/3 chance and Joique Bell probably 50%.

The optimal combo that seems consistently available in mocks has been: 1.12: Murray 2.1: pick a WR not named Calvin or DT 3.11: Ryan Mathews 4.1 Garcon or Crabtree, with things getting dicey at 5/6 turn and beyond.

 

[need2know]

My team from the 12

Qb

Ryan

Rb

Lynch

Murray

Ridley

Hyde

Ingram

Turbin

Wr

V. Jackson

P. Harvin

D. Jackson

J. Maclin

J. Boykin

Te

Ertz

K

Tucker

Def

Ne

 

[kyoun1e]

I'm having a hard time with the turn in rounds 3 and 4 and picks 36 and 37.

RB is especially tough. If looking for a RB, the likes of Ellington, Stacy, Spiller, Morris, Martin, and Bush (blech) are gone. That leaves you "reaching" for the following backs at either pick: T. Gerhart, S. Vereen, R. Jennings (rising), B. Sankey, R. Mathews. Just not good value there at all to me.

A lot to choose from at WR potentially: K. Allen, V. Cruz, L. Fitz, and A. Johnson to name a few. Really lots of WRs I consider of equal value littered about here from pick 30 through round 5. But that's the problem. You may as well wait on WR...tons to pick from.

J. Cameron usually hanging around in here but still, way ahead of his ADP and kind of a reach.

Really, really hate the 3/4 turn. Done tons of mocks. Nothing of value seems to fall in your lap.

vereen, jennings, or cj?k would probably be alright, or maybe a wr like cruz or patterson.

I'm not a cameron believer, but you could just start dipping down into your list that might normally go a little later --- the point is to get the guys you like, not draft them exactly where some mock draft adp list places them.

there are always guys in the middle rounds I wish I had more picks for.

bloom was on his couch the other day pimping the idea of doubling up on elite te --- what does everybody think about a graham/gronk (thomas) on the first turn, if you could get it, vs 2x wr?

CJ?K or Rice at the 4.1 seems like a big reach and they're unlikely to be there at the 5/6 turn, in 90+% of the mocks I've done both go in the mid 40s to mid 50s.. Besides Ryan Mathews is almost always there at the 3/4 turn and I'd be hard pressed to pass on him in favor of CJ or Rice. Getting Ridley or SJax at the 5.12 seems about a 1/3 chance and Joique Bell probably 50%.

The optimal combo that seems consistently available in mocks has been: 1.12: Murray 2.1: pick a WR not named Calvin or DT 3.11: Ryan Mathews 4.1 Garcon or Crabtree, with things getting dicey at 5/6 turn and beyond.

Starting to get more comfortable with the idea of Chris Johnson or L. Miller at the 5/6 turn. Both these guys seem like they're always there.

Still want an RB with one of the first two picks. Just don't have a lot of confidence I'm going to get the RB value pick right in an upside down strategy.

 

[Henry Ford]

My team from the 12

Qb

Ryan

Rb

Lynch

Murray

Ridley

Hyde

Ingram

Turbin

Wr

V. Jackson

P. Harvin

D. Jackson

J. Maclin

J. Boykin

Te

Ertz

K

Tucker

Def

Ne

Where did you take Harvin?

 

[need2know]

My team from the 12

Qb

Ryan

Rb

Lynch

Murray

Ridley

Hyde

Ingram

Turbin

Wr

V. Jackson

P. Harvin

D. Jackson

J. Maclin

J. Boykin

Te

Ertz

K

Tucker

Def

Ne

Where did you take Harvin?

4th round. My league rewards rtn stats. Its early I know but no way I get him in the 5th. One of the biggest risks I took. Glad I got ryan in the 6th.

 

[BigBee]

Here's my draft from the 12th spot in FFPC.. Was hoping to land Montee Ball and Brandon Marshall with my first 2 picks, and got em! really debated going WR/WR

1st Montee Ball

2nd Brandon Marshall

3rd Victor Cruz

4th Roddy White

5th Jordan Reed

6th Alfred Morris

7th Maurice Jones-Drew

8th Steven Jackson

9th Jay Cutler

10 Sammy Watkins

11 Tyler Eifert

12 Danny Amendola

13 SF Defense

14 Eli Manning

15 Roy Helu Jr

16 Miles Austin

17 Harry Douglas

18 Dan Bailey

19 Jerricho Cotchery

20 Blair Walsh

Definitely packed with the stars of yesteryear but think I got good value in some spots... Spiller and Ryan Mathews went the 2 picks right before me in the 5th/6th... Not a huge fan of Morris, but cant go wrong with a solid back like him in that spot.. Took Roddy over Keenan in the 4th which Im regretting a bit now, but cant go back now..

Going RB/WR left my options open come rounds 3/4/5 which was great not being behind the RB 8 ball.. I felt like I was starting the runs and not being stuck on the end of them, which is a good feeling.. While I was zigging, everyone else was Zagging.. Helps that there were lots of weird picks, like I think if I remember correctly Stafford went in the 3rd round, before Rodgers!