Official 10th Pick (redraft) Thread (1 Viewer)

[VikingFrog]

As a Vikings fan, it would be tough for me to pass up Jefferson at 10. Then I’d wonder what to do with my next pick.

Jefferson paired with Adams/Diggs and then just pepper mid round and late round RBs could pay off.

 

[Saint]

In FFPC Best ball (premium TE), I had my choice of Cook/Jones/Swift/Mixon/Kamara/Barkley). Andrews (TE) was available, and Diggs/Adams/Hill/Lamb....

,,,in my mocks, I tended to stay to RB here as I felt there was less of a drop off in the WR route.. A lot of what I am thinking though is geared toward stacking later in the draft... So to the post earlier that talked about it varies by league... it really does.. .but I think in most leagues those will be your choices at 10.

 

[VikingFrog]

In FFPC Best ball (premium TE), I had my choice of Cook/Jones/Swift/Mixon/Kamara/Barkley). Andrews (TE) was available, and Diggs/Adams/Hill/Lamb....

,,,in my mocks, I tended to stay to RB here as I felt there was less of a drop off in the WR route.. A lot of what I am thinking though is geared toward stacking later in the draft... So to the post earlier that talked about it varies by league... it really does.. .but I think in most leagues those will be your choices at 10.

Yeah. I feel like you can just pepper plenty of those mid round WRs and hopefully strike some gold. Which makes RB/RB feel like a strong play here. But as always you have to let your draft come to you.

Of course it varies by league. But I also didn’t want to start a thread for everyone’s specific league rules and mates. It still opens up some thinking hearing what people have to say even if scoring and leagues are different.

 

[Deamon]

As a Vikings fan, it would be tough for me to pass up Jefferson at 10. Then I’d wonder what to do with my next pick.

Jefferson paired with Adams/Diggs and then just pepper mid round and late round RBs could pay off.

Jefferson's ADP isn't as late as 10 in almost any format. In PPR he is going 5th to 6th overall, and in standard like the discussion we are having above, he goes 6th-8th at the latest. So yes, if he's there at 10 that should be an automatic pick.

 

[Chaka]

As a Vikings fan, it would be tough for me to pass up Jefferson at 10. Then I’d wonder what to do with my next pick.

Jefferson paired with Adams/Diggs and then just pepper mid round and late round RBs could pay off.

Jefferson's ADP isn't as late as 10 in almost any format. In PPR he is going 5th to 6th overall, and in standard like the discussion we are having above, he goes 6th-8th at the latest. So yes, if he's there at 10 that should be an automatic pick.

Jefferson's ADP is 6-8th (looking at FBGs page CBS has it at 18 for some reason) but that isn't the latest he is being drafted. As you pointed out ADP is an aggregate of thousands of drafts, if his average is 6, 7 or 8 that means he's being drafted both earlier and later than either of those positions with some regularity. We would need to see the range behind the ADP to have a better understanding of potential outcomes.

I only found two sites that include ranges of draft position but, for example, Fantasy Calculator has his high as 1.01 and his low of 2.01, on MFL (recent 12 team redrafts, real drafts only) he's going anywhere from pick 6 to pick 19 with an average of pick 10. For According to MFL Kamara it's 10 to 34 with an average of pick 19 and Barkley is going anywhere from pick 9 to pick 58 with an average of pick 23. It's about the same for Fantasy Calculator.

It is reasonable to think Jefferson could be available at pick 10. It is also possible that both Kamara and Barkley will be gone by @VikingFrog 's 2nd pick.

 

[Deamon]

As a Vikings fan, it would be tough for me to pass up Jefferson at 10. Then I’d wonder what to do with my next pick.

Jefferson paired with Adams/Diggs and then just pepper mid round and late round RBs could pay off.

Jefferson's ADP isn't as late as 10 in almost any format. In PPR he is going 5th to 6th overall, and in standard like the discussion we are having above, he goes 6th-8th at the latest. So yes, if he's there at 10 that should be an automatic pick.

Jefferson's ADP is 6-8th (looking at FBGs page CBS has it at 18 for some reason) but that isn't the latest he is being drafted. As you pointed out ADP is an aggregate of thousands of drafts, if his average is 6, 7 or 8 that means he's being drafted both earlier and later than either of those positions with some regularity. We would need to see the range behind the ADP to have a better understanding of potential outcomes.

I only found two sites that include ranges of draft position but, for example, Fantasy Calculator has his high as 1.01 and his low of 2.01, on MFL (recent 12 team redrafts, real drafts only) he's going anywhere from pick 6 to pick 19 with an average of pick 10. For According to MFL Kamara it's 10 to 34 with an average of pick 19 and Barkley is going anywhere from pick 9 to pick 58 with an average of pick 23. It's about the same for Fantasy Calculator.

It is reasonable to think Jefferson could be available at pick 10. It is also possible that both Kamara and Barkley will be gone by @VikingFrog 's 2nd pick.

You can't look at highs and lows, as there is always outliers. Some dude could be Jeffersons cousin and take him at 1.01. The average draft position is the best and most accurate data there is.
Is it reasonable to think Jefferson COULD be available at pick 10? He COULD be, but on average he is NOT. Which means he is more likely NOT to be there, than he is to be there. Same with Chase. Same with Kupp. So the most LIKELY scenario is that 6 RB's are taken by pick 10. You said anywhere from 7-9 RB's would be gone in the first 9 picks... and that would be considered unusual.

As for Kamara and Barkley, I mean you said it for yourself. They are going on average at 19 and 23... is it POSSIBLE they are BOTH are gone by pick 15? Sure, anything is possible. But it is HIGHLY unlikely, and maybe 1 in 100 leagues would have them both going top 14 when they have ADP's of 19 and 23.

You also asked "What would you project the 1-9 picks to be if both Kamara & Barkley would be there at 10?" as if you doubted they'd both be there at 10. Both will be there at 10 in the vast majority of leagues. Based on their ADP's, both Kamara and Barkley are there at pick 10 in 99% of leagues in this format, so I don't get your doubt there.

When we draft, we are looking for value. Why would anyone take Kamara or Barkley at 10 when there's a 99% chance of them being there at pick 14?

EDT: For the record, I'm big fans of Barkley and Kamara this year, but they're not even close to consideration for me at pick 10. I'd take one of the 3 WR's if they somehow slipped to me, or else a guy like Mixon, Chubb, or Cook, and then grab Kamara or Barkley (take your pick) at 14.

 

[Chaka]

As a Vikings fan, it would be tough for me to pass up Jefferson at 10. Then I’d wonder what to do with my next pick.

Jefferson paired with Adams/Diggs and then just pepper mid round and late round RBs could pay off.

Jefferson's ADP isn't as late as 10 in almost any format. In PPR he is going 5th to 6th overall, and in standard like the discussion we are having above, he goes 6th-8th at the latest. So yes, if he's there at 10 that should be an automatic pick.

Jefferson's ADP is 6-8th (looking at FBGs page CBS has it at 18 for some reason) but that isn't the latest he is being drafted. As you pointed out ADP is an aggregate of thousands of drafts, if his average is 6, 7 or 8 that means he's being drafted both earlier and later than either of those positions with some regularity. We would need to see the range behind the ADP to have a better understanding of potential outcomes.

I only found two sites that include ranges of draft position but, for example, Fantasy Calculator has his high as 1.01 and his low of 2.01, on MFL (recent 12 team redrafts, real drafts only) he's going anywhere from pick 6 to pick 19 with an average of pick 10. For According to MFL Kamara it's 10 to 34 with an average of pick 19 and Barkley is going anywhere from pick 9 to pick 58 with an average of pick 23. It's about the same for Fantasy Calculator.

It is reasonable to think Jefferson could be available at pick 10. It is also possible that both Kamara and Barkley will be gone by @VikingFrog 's 2nd pick.

You can't look at highs and lows, as there is always outliers. Some dude could be Jeffersons cousin and take him at 1.01. The average draft position is the best and most accurate data there is.
Is it reasonable to think Jefferson COULD be available at pick 10? He COULD be, but on average he is NOT. Which means he is more likely NOT to be there, than he is to be there. Same with Chase. Same with Kupp. So the most LIKELY scenario is that 6 RB's are taken by pick 10. You said anywhere from 7-9 RB's would be gone in the first 9 picks... and that would be considered unusual.

As for Kamara and Barkley, I mean you said it for yourself. They are going on average at 19 and 23... is it POSSIBLE they are BOTH are gone by pick 15? Sure, anything is possible. But it is HIGHLY unlikely, and maybe 1 in 100 leagues would have them both going top 14 when they have ADP's of 19 and 23.

You also asked "What would you project the 1-9 picks to be if both Kamara & Barkley would be there at 10?" as if you doubted they'd both be there at 10. Both will be there at 10 in the vast majority of leagues. Based on their ADP's, both Kamara and Barkley are there at pick 10 in 99% of leagues in this format, so I don't get your doubt there.

When we draft, we are looking for value. Why would anyone take Kamara or Barkley at 10 when there's a 99% chance of them being there at pick 14?

EDT: For the record, I'm big fans of Barkley and Kamara this year, but they're not even close to consideration for me at pick 10. I'd take one of the 3 WR's if they somehow slipped to me, or else a guy like Mixon, Chubb, or Cook, and then grab Kamara or Barkley (take your pick) at 14.

You can simply blame that on a few outliers. As you pointed out these are thousands of drafts and Jefferson is going as the 10th pick according to MFL and their database of thousands of drafts.

Fantasy Calculator is a little more useful in this regard as it has a standard deviation in their dataset (they are missing variance and standard error which would make that number more useful but it's a decent proxy).

So, using the FC data Jefferson is being drafted on average with the 8th pick with an SD of 1.9, again this is very rough math but, effectively that means in 95% of drafts Jefferson is going between pick 4 & pick 12. IoW 5% of the time he is gone before pick 4 or available after pick 12. For Kamara (SD 3.1) it's 95% of the time between 10 & 23 and Barkley (SD 3.4) it's 95% between 13 & 27. That's really all ADP data tells us (and even that isn't helpful without knowing the standard error but it's a good rough estimate). ADP may be the fat part of the bell curve but that's all. So if you want Barkley, Kamara or Jefferson you better start thinking about picking each of them at pick 13, 10 or 4 respectively.

Ultimately this discussion is kind of hilarious because all drafts are so very different. Who hasn't been in their main draft every single year where someone came off the board in the first or second round that didn't make you go "WTF is that dude smoking?" If drafts went according to ADP we would all robodraft our teams and magic football would suck.

I made a post in the Common Draft Mistakes thread about not becoming obsessed with value, you don't get points trying to be the smartest guy in the room and you'll get burned more often than not. If you like a player, go get him and have fun with it.

 

[Deamon]

As a Vikings fan, it would be tough for me to pass up Jefferson at 10. Then I’d wonder what to do with my next pick.

Jefferson paired with Adams/Diggs and then just pepper mid round and late round RBs could pay off.

Jefferson's ADP isn't as late as 10 in almost any format. In PPR he is going 5th to 6th overall, and in standard like the discussion we are having above, he goes 6th-8th at the latest. So yes, if he's there at 10 that should be an automatic pick.

Jefferson's ADP is 6-8th (looking at FBGs page CBS has it at 18 for some reason) but that isn't the latest he is being drafted. As you pointed out ADP is an aggregate of thousands of drafts, if his average is 6, 7 or 8 that means he's being drafted both earlier and later than either of those positions with some regularity. We would need to see the range behind the ADP to have a better understanding of potential outcomes.

I only found two sites that include ranges of draft position but, for example, Fantasy Calculator has his high as 1.01 and his low of 2.01, on MFL (recent 12 team redrafts, real drafts only) he's going anywhere from pick 6 to pick 19 with an average of pick 10. For According to MFL Kamara it's 10 to 34 with an average of pick 19 and Barkley is going anywhere from pick 9 to pick 58 with an average of pick 23. It's about the same for Fantasy Calculator.

It is reasonable to think Jefferson could be available at pick 10. It is also possible that both Kamara and Barkley will be gone by @VikingFrog 's 2nd pick.

You can't look at highs and lows, as there is always outliers. Some dude could be Jeffersons cousin and take him at 1.01. The average draft position is the best and most accurate data there is.
Is it reasonable to think Jefferson COULD be available at pick 10? He COULD be, but on average he is NOT. Which means he is more likely NOT to be there, than he is to be there. Same with Chase. Same with Kupp. So the most LIKELY scenario is that 6 RB's are taken by pick 10. You said anywhere from 7-9 RB's would be gone in the first 9 picks... and that would be considered unusual.

As for Kamara and Barkley, I mean you said it for yourself. They are going on average at 19 and 23... is it POSSIBLE they are BOTH are gone by pick 15? Sure, anything is possible. But it is HIGHLY unlikely, and maybe 1 in 100 leagues would have them both going top 14 when they have ADP's of 19 and 23.

You also asked "What would you project the 1-9 picks to be if both Kamara & Barkley would be there at 10?" as if you doubted they'd both be there at 10. Both will be there at 10 in the vast majority of leagues. Based on their ADP's, both Kamara and Barkley are there at pick 10 in 99% of leagues in this format, so I don't get your doubt there.

When we draft, we are looking for value. Why would anyone take Kamara or Barkley at 10 when there's a 99% chance of them being there at pick 14?

EDT: For the record, I'm big fans of Barkley and Kamara this year, but they're not even close to consideration for me at pick 10. I'd take one of the 3 WR's if they somehow slipped to me, or else a guy like Mixon, Chubb, or Cook, and then grab Kamara or Barkley (take your pick) at 14.

You can simply blame that on a few outliers. As you pointed out these are thousands of drafts and Jefferson is going as the 10th pick according to MFL and their database of thousands of drafts.

Fantasy Calculator is a little more useful in this regard as it has a standard deviation in their dataset (they are missing variance and standard error which would make that number more useful but it's a decent proxy).

So, using the FC data Jefferson is being drafted on average with the 8th pick with an SD of 1.9, again this is very rough math but, effectively that means in 95% of drafts Jefferson is going between pick 4 & pick 12. IoW 5% of the time he is gone before pick 4 or available after pick 12. For Kamara (SD 3.1) it's 95% of the time between 10 & 23 and Barkley (SD 3.4) it's 95% between 13 & 27. That's really all ADP data tells us (and even that isn't helpful without knowing the standard error but it's a good rough estimate). ADP may be the fat part of the bell curve but that's all. So if you want Barkley, Kamara or Jefferson you better start thinking about picking each of them at pick 13, 10 or 4 respectively.

Ultimately this discussion is kind of hilarious because all drafts are so very different. Who hasn't been in their main draft every single year where someone came off the board in the first or second round that didn't make you go "WTF is that dude smoking?" If drafts went according to ADP we would all robodraft our teams and magic football would suck.

I made a post in the Common Draft Mistakes thread about not becoming obsessed with value, you don't get points trying to be the smartest guy in the room and you'll get burned more often than not. If you like a player, go get him and have fun with it.

Man it's kinda pointless discussing this with you because you are using the highs as the 'if you want him take him here" when the highs happen an incredibly low percentage of the time. With an Average position of pick 23 (Barkley), what do you honestly think the percentage is of times he is gone in the first 12 picks? Don't play the "we have no way of knowing" card as the defense here. If you think it's common that he's going pick 12, then you think it's also common he's going at the end of the 3rd round which is also very uncommon. So again, if you had to take an educated guess, a guy with an ADP of 23, how often is he gone by pick 14? Why in the world would you take him at 10 if this number is over 90%?
With this many drafts, and looking at real drafts with money on the line, the deviation is not that high. It's a VERY safe bet that he will be there by pick 14, so why would you risk getting a first round talent at 10, and not just take him at 14 where he's almost guaranteed to be there? ADP is extremely useful in dominating drafts, and Value based drafting is the cornerstone of this site and its rankings. I guess I don't understand how you find it odd that Kamara and Barkley are there at 10, when data shows very heavily that they aren't gone until much much later in the draft. Being obssessed with value is different than being smart with value. If you love mixon, and his ADP is 1.10 and you have the 6th pick, sure take him, why not. But if you LOVE Barkley, and you have pick 10 and 14, and he's going usually around #23, then there's no reason at all to take him at 10.

 

[Chaka]

As a Vikings fan, it would be tough for me to pass up Jefferson at 10. Then I’d wonder what to do with my next pick.

Jefferson paired with Adams/Diggs and then just pepper mid round and late round RBs could pay off.

Jefferson's ADP isn't as late as 10 in almost any format. In PPR he is going 5th to 6th overall, and in standard like the discussion we are having above, he goes 6th-8th at the latest. So yes, if he's there at 10 that should be an automatic pick.

Jefferson's ADP is 6-8th (looking at FBGs page CBS has it at 18 for some reason) but that isn't the latest he is being drafted. As you pointed out ADP is an aggregate of thousands of drafts, if his average is 6, 7 or 8 that means he's being drafted both earlier and later than either of those positions with some regularity. We would need to see the range behind the ADP to have a better understanding of potential outcomes.

I only found two sites that include ranges of draft position but, for example, Fantasy Calculator has his high as 1.01 and his low of 2.01, on MFL (recent 12 team redrafts, real drafts only) he's going anywhere from pick 6 to pick 19 with an average of pick 10. For According to MFL Kamara it's 10 to 34 with an average of pick 19 and Barkley is going anywhere from pick 9 to pick 58 with an average of pick 23. It's about the same for Fantasy Calculator.

It is reasonable to think Jefferson could be available at pick 10. It is also possible that both Kamara and Barkley will be gone by @VikingFrog 's 2nd pick.

You can't look at highs and lows, as there is always outliers. Some dude could be Jeffersons cousin and take him at 1.01. The average draft position is the best and most accurate data there is.
Is it reasonable to think Jefferson COULD be available at pick 10? He COULD be, but on average he is NOT. Which means he is more likely NOT to be there, than he is to be there. Same with Chase. Same with Kupp. So the most LIKELY scenario is that 6 RB's are taken by pick 10. You said anywhere from 7-9 RB's would be gone in the first 9 picks... and that would be considered unusual.

As for Kamara and Barkley, I mean you said it for yourself. They are going on average at 19 and 23... is it POSSIBLE they are BOTH are gone by pick 15? Sure, anything is possible. But it is HIGHLY unlikely, and maybe 1 in 100 leagues would have them both going top 14 when they have ADP's of 19 and 23.

You also asked "What would you project the 1-9 picks to be if both Kamara & Barkley would be there at 10?" as if you doubted they'd both be there at 10. Both will be there at 10 in the vast majority of leagues. Based on their ADP's, both Kamara and Barkley are there at pick 10 in 99% of leagues in this format, so I don't get your doubt there.

When we draft, we are looking for value. Why would anyone take Kamara or Barkley at 10 when there's a 99% chance of them being there at pick 14?

EDT: For the record, I'm big fans of Barkley and Kamara this year, but they're not even close to consideration for me at pick 10. I'd take one of the 3 WR's if they somehow slipped to me, or else a guy like Mixon, Chubb, or Cook, and then grab Kamara or Barkley (take your pick) at 14.

You can simply blame that on a few outliers. As you pointed out these are thousands of drafts and Jefferson is going as the 10th pick according to MFL and their database of thousands of drafts.

Fantasy Calculator is a little more useful in this regard as it has a standard deviation in their dataset (they are missing variance and standard error which would make that number more useful but it's a decent proxy).

So, using the FC data Jefferson is being drafted on average with the 8th pick with an SD of 1.9, again this is very rough math but, effectively that means in 95% of drafts Jefferson is going between pick 4 & pick 12. IoW 5% of the time he is gone before pick 4 or available after pick 12. For Kamara (SD 3.1) it's 95% of the time between 10 & 23 and Barkley (SD 3.4) it's 95% between 13 & 27. That's really all ADP data tells us (and even that isn't helpful without knowing the standard error but it's a good rough estimate). ADP may be the fat part of the bell curve but that's all. So if you want Barkley, Kamara or Jefferson you better start thinking about picking each of them at pick 13, 10 or 4 respectively.

Ultimately this discussion is kind of hilarious because all drafts are so very different. Who hasn't been in their main draft every single year where someone came off the board in the first or second round that didn't make you go "WTF is that dude smoking?" If drafts went according to ADP we would all robodraft our teams and magic football would suck.

I made a post in the Common Draft Mistakes thread about not becoming obsessed with value, you don't get points trying to be the smartest guy in the room and you'll get burned more often than not. If you like a player, go get him and have fun with it.

Man it's kinda pointless discussing this with you because you are using the highs as the 'if you want him take him here" when the highs happen an incredibly low percentage of the time. With an Average position of pick 23 (Barkley), what do you honestly think the percentage is of times he is gone in the first 12 picks? Don't play the "we have no way of knowing" card as the defense here. If you think it's common that he's going pick 12, then you think it's also common he's going at the end of the 3rd round which is also very uncommon. So again, if you had to take an educated guess, a guy with an ADP of 23, how often is he gone by pick 14? Why in the world would you take him at 10 if this number is over 90%?
With this many drafts, and looking at real drafts with money on the line, the deviation is not that high. It's a VERY safe bet that he will be there by pick 14, so why would you risk getting a first round talent at 10, and not just take him at 14 where he's almost guaranteed to be there? ADP is extremely useful in dominating drafts, and Value based drafting is the cornerstone of this site and its rankings. I guess I don't understand how you find it odd that Kamara and Barkley are there at 10, when data shows very heavily that they aren't gone until much much later in the draft. Being obssessed with value is different than being smart with value. If you love mixon, and his ADP is 1.10 and you have the 6th pick, sure take him, why not. But if you LOVE Barkley, and you have pick 10 and 14, and he's going usually around #23, then there's no reason at all to take him at 10.

I didn't play a card, I played math.

 

[Deamon]

As a Vikings fan, it would be tough for me to pass up Jefferson at 10. Then I’d wonder what to do with my next pick.

Jefferson paired with Adams/Diggs and then just pepper mid round and late round RBs could pay off.

Jefferson's ADP isn't as late as 10 in almost any format. In PPR he is going 5th to 6th overall, and in standard like the discussion we are having above, he goes 6th-8th at the latest. So yes, if he's there at 10 that should be an automatic pick.

Jefferson's ADP is 6-8th (looking at FBGs page CBS has it at 18 for some reason) but that isn't the latest he is being drafted. As you pointed out ADP is an aggregate of thousands of drafts, if his average is 6, 7 or 8 that means he's being drafted both earlier and later than either of those positions with some regularity. We would need to see the range behind the ADP to have a better understanding of potential outcomes.

I only found two sites that include ranges of draft position but, for example, Fantasy Calculator has his high as 1.01 and his low of 2.01, on MFL (recent 12 team redrafts, real drafts only) he's going anywhere from pick 6 to pick 19 with an average of pick 10. For According to MFL Kamara it's 10 to 34 with an average of pick 19 and Barkley is going anywhere from pick 9 to pick 58 with an average of pick 23. It's about the same for Fantasy Calculator.

It is reasonable to think Jefferson could be available at pick 10. It is also possible that both Kamara and Barkley will be gone by @VikingFrog 's 2nd pick.

You can't look at highs and lows, as there is always outliers. Some dude could be Jeffersons cousin and take him at 1.01. The average draft position is the best and most accurate data there is.
Is it reasonable to think Jefferson COULD be available at pick 10? He COULD be, but on average he is NOT. Which means he is more likely NOT to be there, than he is to be there. Same with Chase. Same with Kupp. So the most LIKELY scenario is that 6 RB's are taken by pick 10. You said anywhere from 7-9 RB's would be gone in the first 9 picks... and that would be considered unusual.

As for Kamara and Barkley, I mean you said it for yourself. They are going on average at 19 and 23... is it POSSIBLE they are BOTH are gone by pick 15? Sure, anything is possible. But it is HIGHLY unlikely, and maybe 1 in 100 leagues would have them both going top 14 when they have ADP's of 19 and 23.

You also asked "What would you project the 1-9 picks to be if both Kamara & Barkley would be there at 10?" as if you doubted they'd both be there at 10. Both will be there at 10 in the vast majority of leagues. Based on their ADP's, both Kamara and Barkley are there at pick 10 in 99% of leagues in this format, so I don't get your doubt there.

When we draft, we are looking for value. Why would anyone take Kamara or Barkley at 10 when there's a 99% chance of them being there at pick 14?

EDT: For the record, I'm big fans of Barkley and Kamara this year, but they're not even close to consideration for me at pick 10. I'd take one of the 3 WR's if they somehow slipped to me, or else a guy like Mixon, Chubb, or Cook, and then grab Kamara or Barkley (take your pick) at 14.

You can simply blame that on a few outliers. As you pointed out these are thousands of drafts and Jefferson is going as the 10th pick according to MFL and their database of thousands of drafts.

Fantasy Calculator is a little more useful in this regard as it has a standard deviation in their dataset (they are missing variance and standard error which would make that number more useful but it's a decent proxy).

So, using the FC data Jefferson is being drafted on average with the 8th pick with an SD of 1.9, again this is very rough math but, effectively that means in 95% of drafts Jefferson is going between pick 4 & pick 12. IoW 5% of the time he is gone before pick 4 or available after pick 12. For Kamara (SD 3.1) it's 95% of the time between 10 & 23 and Barkley (SD 3.4) it's 95% between 13 & 27. That's really all ADP data tells us (and even that isn't helpful without knowing the standard error but it's a good rough estimate). ADP may be the fat part of the bell curve but that's all. So if you want Barkley, Kamara or Jefferson you better start thinking about picking each of them at pick 13, 10 or 4 respectively.

Ultimately this discussion is kind of hilarious because all drafts are so very different. Who hasn't been in their main draft every single year where someone came off the board in the first or second round that didn't make you go "WTF is that dude smoking?" If drafts went according to ADP we would all robodraft our teams and magic football would suck.

I made a post in the Common Draft Mistakes thread about not becoming obsessed with value, you don't get points trying to be the smartest guy in the room and you'll get burned more often than not. If you like a player, go get him and have fun with it.

Man it's kinda pointless discussing this with you because you are using the highs as the 'if you want him take him here" when the highs happen an incredibly low percentage of the time. With an Average position of pick 23 (Barkley), what do you honestly think the percentage is of times he is gone in the first 12 picks? Don't play the "we have no way of knowing" card as the defense here. If you think it's common that he's going pick 12, then you think it's also common he's going at the end of the 3rd round which is also very uncommon. So again, if you had to take an educated guess, a guy with an ADP of 23, how often is he gone by pick 14? Why in the world would you take him at 10 if this number is over 90%?
With this many drafts, and looking at real drafts with money on the line, the deviation is not that high. It's a VERY safe bet that he will be there by pick 14, so why would you risk getting a first round talent at 10, and not just take him at 14 where he's almost guaranteed to be there? ADP is extremely useful in dominating drafts, and Value based drafting is the cornerstone of this site and its rankings. I guess I don't understand how you find it odd that Kamara and Barkley are there at 10, when data shows very heavily that they aren't gone until much much later in the draft. Being obssessed with value is different than being smart with value. If you love mixon, and his ADP is 1.10 and you have the 6th pick, sure take him, why not. But if you LOVE Barkley, and you have pick 10 and 14, and he's going usually around #23, then there's no reason at all to take him at 10.

I didn't play a card, I played math.

And what is your answer to the question I asked you?

 

[VikingFrog]

For whatever reason. Going WR/WR here is becoming more and more enticing if Jefferson or Chase falls.

I haven’t upside down drafted in years, but all threads and radio and insight I keep reading is how often 1st round and 2nd round rbs bust/get injured.

It is swaying me as I lead into my draft tonight.

I feel like one of those guys will make it to 10.

 

[Deamon]

For whatever reason. Going WR/WR here is becoming more and more enticing if Jefferson or Chase falls.

I haven’t upside down drafted in years, but all threads and radio and insight I keep reading is how often 1st round and 2nd round rbs bust/get injured.

It is swaying me as I lead into my draft tonight.

I feel like one of those guys will make it to 10.

If one of them somehow makes it to you then that's a no brainer. Who are the possible 9 players to go above them?

 

[VikingFrog]

If one of them somehow makes it to you then that's a no brainer. Who are the possible 9 players to go above them?

It’s non-PPR with 6 pt passing, which I still think those guys are ranked above 10, but it’s a long standing league which leans running back heavy many years, and there’s always a few wild cards. I’ve seen a QB go in the first and tight ends.

I could see Kamara, Kelce, Chubb, Mixon perhaps sneaking in there. Maybe even josh Allen as it’s not likely but could happen with a few of these league mates.

Also a lot of Cowboys fans, so I doubt it, but Cedee could go early if someone really likes him.

It’s a long shot, but at 10, only one of those guys has to move up for me to have a chance at Jefferson or Chase.

 

[Deamon]

I feel like one of those guys will make it to 10.

It’s a long shot,

I'm confused lol. Do you or don't you feel like one of them will make it to you at 10?

 

[Deamon]

I could see Kamara, Kelce, Chubb, Mixon perhaps sneaking in there. Maybe even josh Allen as it’s not likely but could happen with a few of these league mates.

Ok so:

1Taylor
2CMC
3Kupp
4Ekeler
5Mixon
6Cook
7JJ/Chase
8 Harris

Chubb (ADP 2.05)
Kelce (ADP 2.01)
Kamara (ADP 2.06)
Allen (ADP 3.02)
Lamb (ADP 2.04)
I mean you need 1 of those 5 to somehow go in the top 9 picks. And equally you need All of the above 8 mentioned to 100% go in the top 9 picks.

I think it's not overly likely, but like you say, if it does happen then your pick is pretty easy and obvious so no stress.

Curious how it goes though, let us know!

 

[VikingFrog]

I feel like one of those guys will make it to 10.

It’s a long shot,

I'm confused lol. Do you or don't you feel like one of them will make it to you at 10?

I tend to waffle and stress on draft day, coupled with driving an an hour trip that took 3 hours because I was in a monsoon this AM and my brain is sort of scrambled.

You probably explained it better than me in your second post. If one person slides my chances increase.

We’ll see. Can report back if it helps anyone else.

 

[VikingFrog]

I could see Kamara, Kelce, Chubb, Mixon perhaps sneaking in there. Maybe even josh Allen as it’s not likely but could happen with a few of these league mates.

Ok so:

1Taylor
2CMC
3Kupp
4Ekeler
5Mixon
6Cook
7JJ/Chase
8 Harris

Chubb (ADP 2.05)
Kelce (ADP 2.01)
Kamara (ADP 2.06)
Allen (ADP 3.02)
Lamb (ADP 2.04)
I mean you need 1 of those 5 to somehow go in the top 9 picks. And equally you need All of the above 8 mentioned to 100% go in the top 9 picks.

I think it's not overly likely, but like you say, if it does happen then your pick is pretty easy and obvious so no stress.

Curious how it goes though, let us know!

You are missing King Henry here.

 

[Deamon]

I could see Kamara, Kelce, Chubb, Mixon perhaps sneaking in there. Maybe even josh Allen as it’s not likely but could happen with a few of these league mates.

Ok so:

1Taylor
2CMC
3Kupp
4Ekeler
5Mixon
6Cook
7JJ/Chase
8 Harris

Chubb (ADP 2.05)
Kelce (ADP 2.01)
Kamara (ADP 2.06)
Allen (ADP 3.02)
Lamb (ADP 2.04)
I mean you need 1 of those 5 to somehow go in the top 9 picks. And equally you need All of the above 8 mentioned to 100% go in the top 9 picks.

I think it's not overly likely, but like you say, if it does happen then your pick is pretty easy and obvious so no stress.

Curious how it goes though, let us know!

You are missing King Henry here.

Oh, damn I am!

 

[Chaka]

And what is your answer to the question I asked you?

My answer is you keep talking about ADP of 23, which I think is wrong. It was 19 after the draft (MFL 12 team, PPR, redraft no mocks) and is ADP 15 now (17 on FBG consensus data). So, yeah taking him at the 12-13 turn probably isn't uncommon.

 

[Deamon]

I feel like one of those guys will make it to 10.

It’s a long shot,

I'm confused lol. Do you or don't you feel like one of them will make it to you at 10?

I tend to waffle and stress on draft day, coupled with driving an an hour trip that took 3 hours because I was in a monsoon this AM and my brain is sort of scrambled.

You probably explained it better than me in your second post. If one person slides my chances increase.

We’ll see. Can report back if it helps anyone else.

Ya would love to hear how it goes. My personal Non PPR ranks would be (and yes I know everyone differs on this)

1Taylor
2CMC
3Henry
4Ekeler
5Kupp
6Mixon
7Chase
8Jefferson
9Cook
10Harris

Then I see a bit of a tier break before you hit Chubb, Kamara, Swift, Adams, Diggs, Kelce.

You can get one of those top 10 if you want them

 

[Deamon]

And what is your answer to the question I asked you?

My answer is you keep talking about ADP of 23, which I think is wrong. It was 19 after the draft (MFL 12 team, PPR, redraft no mocks) and is ADP 15 now (17 on FBG consensus data). So, yeah taking him at the 12-13 turn probably isn't uncommon.

Barkley? No. You're wrong again.

 

[Chaka]

And what is your answer to the question I asked you?

My answer is you keep talking about ADP of 23, which I think is wrong. It was 19 after the draft (MFL 12 team, PPR, redraft no mocks) and is ADP 15 now (17 on FBG consensus data). So, yeah taking him at the 12-13 turn probably isn't uncommon.

Barkley? No. You're wrong again.

Which part? Wasn't your question about Barkley? He isn't ADP 15 now?

 

[Deamon]

Which part? Wasn't your question about Barkley? He isn't ADP 15 now?

Correct, it isn't. It's 17.77
And we are in the 10th pick thread, so yes I continue to think taking a player with ADP of 17.77 at 10 is wrong when you can likely get them at 15.

 

[Chaka]

Which part? Wasn't your question about Barkley? He isn't ADP 15 now?

Correct, it isn't. It's 17.77
And we are in the 10th pick thread, so yes I continue to think taking a player with ADP of 17.77 at 10 is wrong when you can likely get them at 15.

Lol okay, you got me. Mea Culpa I misread and called it 15. 17.77 just happens to translate to him being the 16th ranked player.

And, yes taking him at 12-13 isn't an unusual occurrence. Depending on the standard deviation and standard error, of this already highly speculative ADP metric, it could happen upwards of 15% of the time (I tried to explain that above). Particularly for a rising player, which he is. Not sure I would personally take him at 12-13 but, depending on how picks 1-11 went, yeah maybe.

In my league I definitely take him ahead of Kelce, probably Kamara too, maybe Diggs (probably not). I like D'Andre, but am I sold on him? Not really. Davante with Carr feels a lot different than Davante with Rodgers. Yeah, there are a lot of question between Mixon and Barkley.

 

[Deamon]

Which part? Wasn't your question about Barkley? He isn't ADP 15 now?

Correct, it isn't. It's 17.77
And we are in the 10th pick thread, so yes I continue to think taking a player with ADP of 17.77 at 10 is wrong when you can likely get them at 15.

Lol okay, you got me. Mea Culpa I misread and called it 15. 17.77 just happens to translate to him being the 16th ranked player.

And, yes taking him at 12-13 isn't an unusual occurrence. Depending on the standard deviation and standard error, of this already highly speculative ADP metric, it could happen upwards of 15% of the time (I tried to explain that above). Particularly for a rising player, which he is. Not sure I would personally take him at 12-13 but, depending on how picks 1-11 went, yeah maybe.

In my league I definitely take him ahead of Kelce, probably Kamara too, maybe Diggs (probably not). I like D'Andre, but am I sold on him? Not really. Davante with Carr feels a lot different than Davante with Rodgers. Yeah, there are a lot of question between Mixon and Barkley.

Ya I can get behind all of this, and I fully agree 15% or so of the time he could go 12/13 (I think it's a bit lower but pretty close and we're just splitting hairs there).

We probably think more similarly than we both think. Numbers might be better than words like "rare" and "unusual" and "often" , etc. I guess I do call 15% "unusual" and try to play percentages a lot more. Based on 15% though, I'm grabbing another stud at 10 and targeting him at 14 because there's an 85% chance he's there.

 

[Chaka]

Which part? Wasn't your question about Barkley? He isn't ADP 15 now?

Correct, it isn't. It's 17.77
And we are in the 10th pick thread, so yes I continue to think taking a player with ADP of 17.77 at 10 is wrong when you can likely get them at 15.

Lol okay, you got me. Mea Culpa I misread and called it 15. 17.77 just happens to translate to him being the 16th ranked player.

And, yes taking him at 12-13 isn't an unusual occurrence. Depending on the standard deviation and standard error, of this already highly speculative ADP metric, it could happen upwards of 15% of the time (I tried to explain that above). Particularly for a rising player, which he is. Not sure I would personally take him at 12-13 but, depending on how picks 1-11 went, yeah maybe.

In my league I definitely take him ahead of Kelce, probably Kamara too, maybe Diggs (probably not). I like D'Andre, but am I sold on him? Not really. Davante with Carr feels a lot different than Davante with Rodgers. Yeah, there are a lot of question between Mixon and Barkley.

Ya I can get behind all of this, and I fully agree 15% or so of the time he could go 12/13 (I think it's a bit lower but pretty close and we're just splitting hairs there).

We probably think more similarly than we both think. Numbers might be better than words like "rare" and "unusual" and "often" , etc. I guess I do call 15% "unusual" and try to play percentages a lot more. Based on 15% though, I'm grabbing another stud at 10 and targeting him at 14 because there's an 85% chance he's there.

Statistically 15% is unusual. I typically look at it from the perspective of how much money would I accept to stand in front of a gun that had an X% chance of going off.

 

[Deamon]

Which part? Wasn't your question about Barkley? He isn't ADP 15 now?

Correct, it isn't. It's 17.77
And we are in the 10th pick thread, so yes I continue to think taking a player with ADP of 17.77 at 10 is wrong when you can likely get them at 15.

Lol okay, you got me. Mea Culpa I misread and called it 15. 17.77 just happens to translate to him being the 16th ranked player.

And, yes taking him at 12-13 isn't an unusual occurrence. Depending on the standard deviation and standard error, of this already highly speculative ADP metric, it could happen upwards of 15% of the time (I tried to explain that above). Particularly for a rising player, which he is. Not sure I would personally take him at 12-13 but, depending on how picks 1-11 went, yeah maybe.

In my league I definitely take him ahead of Kelce, probably Kamara too, maybe Diggs (probably not). I like D'Andre, but am I sold on him? Not really. Davante with Carr feels a lot different than Davante with Rodgers. Yeah, there are a lot of question between Mixon and Barkley.

Ya I can get behind all of this, and I fully agree 15% or so of the time he could go 12/13 (I think it's a bit lower but pretty close and we're just splitting hairs there).

We probably think more similarly than we both think. Numbers might be better than words like "rare" and "unusual" and "often" , etc. I guess I do call 15% "unusual" and try to play percentages a lot more. Based on 15% though, I'm grabbing another stud at 10 and targeting him at 14 because there's an 85% chance he's there.

Statistically 15% is unusual. I typically look at it from the perspective of how much money would I accept to stand in front of a gun that had an X% chance of going off.

I mean in that example then 1% isn't enough either so I'm not sure where you're going with that. Losing Barkley in a draft isn't the same as shooting yourself in the face.

If there's an 85% chance I can get Barkley with pick 14 and someone like Chase is there at 10, I'm taking Chase and risking the 15% chance I somehow don't get Barkley.

 

[Chaka]

Which part? Wasn't your question about Barkley? He isn't ADP 15 now?

Correct, it isn't. It's 17.77
And we are in the 10th pick thread, so yes I continue to think taking a player with ADP of 17.77 at 10 is wrong when you can likely get them at 15.

Lol okay, you got me. Mea Culpa I misread and called it 15. 17.77 just happens to translate to him being the 16th ranked player.

And, yes taking him at 12-13 isn't an unusual occurrence. Depending on the standard deviation and standard error, of this already highly speculative ADP metric, it could happen upwards of 15% of the time (I tried to explain that above). Particularly for a rising player, which he is. Not sure I would personally take him at 12-13 but, depending on how picks 1-11 went, yeah maybe.

In my league I definitely take him ahead of Kelce, probably Kamara too, maybe Diggs (probably not). I like D'Andre, but am I sold on him? Not really. Davante with Carr feels a lot different than Davante with Rodgers. Yeah, there are a lot of question between Mixon and Barkley.

Ya I can get behind all of this, and I fully agree 15% or so of the time he could go 12/13 (I think it's a bit lower but pretty close and we're just splitting hairs there).

We probably think more similarly than we both think. Numbers might be better than words like "rare" and "unusual" and "often" , etc. I guess I do call 15% "unusual" and try to play percentages a lot more. Based on 15% though, I'm grabbing another stud at 10 and targeting him at 14 because there's an 85% chance he's there.

Statistically 15% is unusual. I typically look at it from the perspective of how much money would I accept to stand in front of a gun that had an X% chance of going off.

I mean in that example then 1% isn't enough either so I'm not sure where you're going with that. Losing Barkley in a draft isn't the same as shooting yourself in the face.

If there's an 85% chance I can get Barkley with pick 14 and someone like Chase is there at 10, I'm taking Chase and risking the 15% chance I somehow don't get Barkley.

That would be a good gamble.

 

[Deamon]

Can report back if it helps anyone else.

What time is the draft?

 

[VikingFrog]

Can report back if it helps anyone else.

What time is the draft?

2 Hours from now.

Letting the draft come to me. AKA… panicking and over-reacting and picking the wrong guy with 2 seconds on the clock.

Truthfully

I have my tiers and rankings for the top 300 guys

Can report back if it helps anyone else.

What time is the draft?

None of the WR we mention available. But that meant Cook fell to me at 10 and grabbed Dalvin and Kamara in round 2.

I like the way the team turned out.

 

[Deamon]

Can report back if it helps anyone else.

What time is the draft?

2 Hours from now.

Letting the draft come to me. AKA… panicking and over-reacting and picking the wrong guy with 2 seconds on the clock.

Truthfully

I have my tiers and rankings for the top 300 guys

Can report back if it helps anyone else.

What time is the draft?

None of the WR we mention available. But that meant Cook fell to me at 10 and grabbed Dalvin and Kamara in round 2.

I like the way the team turned out.

That's great! Who'd you get rounds 3-11?

 

[Deamon]

Can report back if it helps anyone else.

What time is the draft?

2 Hours from now.

Letting the draft come to me. AKA… panicking and over-reacting and picking the wrong guy with 2 seconds on the clock.

Truthfully

I have my tiers and rankings for the top 300 guys

Can report back if it helps anyone else.

What time is the draft?

None of the WR we mention available. But that meant Cook fell to me at 10 and grabbed Dalvin and Kamara in round 2.

I like the way the team turned out.

Also, what round and pick did Gabriel Davis go?

 

[VikingFrog]

Also, what round and pick did Gabriel Davis go?

Round 6… Pick 63…

But the team that took him REALLY likes him, so had to reach.

My team!

 

[VikingFrog]

That's great! Who'd you get rounds 3-11?

1.	(10)	Dalvin Cook (Min - RB)
2.	(15)	Alvin Kamara (NO - RB)
3.	(34)	DJ Moore (Car - WR)
4.	(39)	Jerry Jeudy (Den - WR)
5.	(58)	Kyler Murray (Ari - QB)
6.	(63)	Gabriel Davis (Buf - WR)
7.	(82)	Rhamondre Stevenson (NE - RB)
8.	(87)	Chris Godwin (TB - WR)
9.	(106)	Brian Robinson Jr. (Was - RB)
10.	(111)	Kenneth Walker III (Sea - RB)
11.	(130)	Marquez Valdes-Scantling (KC - WR)
12.	(135)	Green Bay (GB - DEF)
13.	(154)	Irv Smith Jr. (Min - TE)
14.	(159)	Khalil Herbert (Chi - RB)

Jeudy was a reach. I was aiming for Pitts there and he went the pick before me and I sort of panicked on my list as I was running out of time.

I really like Kyler in my rankings and QBs start flying in this league so I grabbed him knowing he’d be gone.

 

[Deamon]

That's great! Who'd you get rounds 3-11?

1.	(10)	Dalvin Cook (Min - RB)
2.	(15)	Alvin Kamara (NO - RB)
3.	(34)	DJ Moore (Car - WR)
4.	(39)	Jerry Jeudy (Den - WR)
5.	(58)	Kyler Murray (Ari - QB)
6.	(63)	Gabriel Davis (Buf - WR)
7.	(82)	Rhamondre Stevenson (NE - RB)
8.	(87)	Chris Godwin (TB - WR)
9.	(106)	Brian Robinson Jr. (Was - RB)
10.	(111)	Kenneth Walker III (Sea - RB)
11.	(130)	Marquez Valdes-Scantling (KC - WR)
12.	(135)	Green Bay (GB - DEF)
13.	(154)	Irv Smith Jr. (Min - TE)
14.	(159)	Khalil Herbert (Chi - RB)

Jeudy was a reach. I was aiming for Pitts there and he went the pick before me and I sort of panicked on my list as I was running out of time.

I really like Kyler in my rankings and QBs start flying in this league so I grabbed him knowing he’d be gone.

Not bad, was just to make a comment about Jeudy that's rough haha. Rest of the draft is pretty good though! Congrats and thanks for the info.

 

[VikingFrog]

Not bad, was just to make a comment about Jeudy that's rough haha. Rest of the draft is pretty good though! Congrats and thanks for the info.

Yeah. Lost some sleep over the Jeudy pick after coming home and analyzing teams and who fell after.

I was sort of locked into Pitts and/or best available WR there when my turn came up.

Ironically, looking back at my sheet now, the highest rates WR available on my own rankings when drafting Jeudy was…. Sutton… lol.

I do have Jeudy sandwiched between Pittman and Marquise brown in my own personal rankings, and still think he has solid upside if things click with Russ… so perhaps he’ll be the beneficiary of Russ Cooking.

And when Pitts went right before me I have no idea what happened. I swear I was looking at my sheets and trying to make a good decision, but all the sudden my computer was yelling at me that I had 10 seconds left and I was staring at 4-5 guys at the top WR spot according to yahoo because I had filtered by WR.

In hindsight, I almost wish I’d have gone with a 3rd running back at that pick.

Guys that went shortly after I’m kicking myself about this AM.

David Montgomery
Sutton (I go back and forth on who will be more productive… but I land on Sutton most often and STILL drafted Jeudy LOL)
Breece Hall (don’t love him)
Josh Jacobs
Dobbins
Dillon
Waller (burned me last year)

 

[Keith1]

I like that team, although I would have grabbed Mattison (probably instead of Godwin). Can't take Cook without the cuff.

 

[VikingFrog]

I like that team, although I would have grabbed Mattison (probably instead of Godwin). Can't take Cook without the cuff.

I played with fire and got burnt. He went in the 11th round 2 picks before I picked. Right after I picked Robinson and Walker.

I was definitely targeting him but waited way too long and MVS is just a throw away pick at the end there so was really hoping for him.

 

[candian fantasy guy]

As for the Jeudy pick, was Sutton still on the board?

You should try listening to JJ Zacharison about handcuffs and the perceived value and the actual value value of a handcuff. It has changed how I approach handcuffs forever going forward.

 

[Keith1]

As for the Jeudy pick, was Sutton still on the board?

You should try listening to JJ Zacharison about handcuffs and the perceived value and the actual value value of a handcuff. It has changed how I approach handcuffs forever going forward.

I would personally have taken Sutton over Jeudy. As for the cuffs, I agree that you can't be a slave to it, but, where the RB to be cuffed is: (a) your 1st round pick and thus the linchpin of your team; (b) injury-prone (some guys just are more than others); and (c) the cuff (in this case Mattison) can slide right in and perform almost as well as the guy being cuffed, then I think you have to make it a priority. Even if it is a round early.

 

[candian fantasy guy]

As for the Jeudy pick, was Sutton still on the board?

You should try listening to JJ Zacharison about handcuffs and the perceived value and the actual value value of a handcuff. It has changed how I approach handcuffs forever going forward.

I would personally have taken Sutton over Jeudy. As for the cuffs, I agree that you can't be a slave to it, but, where the RB to be cuffed is: (a) your 1st round pick and thus the linchpin of your team; (b) injury-prone (some guys just are more than others); and (c) the cuff (in this case Mattison) can slide right in and perform almost as well as the guy being cuffed, then I think you have to make it a priority. Even if it is a round early.

When it comes to handcuffing, it’s no different than player value. You will hear a wide variety of opinions. I’m not sure which episode from JJ’s library, but he puts out a pretty compelling argument about handcuffs and what to do. I would recommend it as a listen to anyone that doesn’t play in my leagues.

 

[Navin Johnson]

12-team PPR TE premium

1.10 Jefferson
2.05 Andrews
3.10 Evans
4.05 Higgins
5.10 ETN
6.05 Hall
7.10 Pollard
8.05 Gibson
9.10 Brady
10.05 Kadarius
11.10 Hines
12.05 Blankenship
13.10 Henderson
14.05 McKinnon
15.10 Colts
16.05 Winston

QB Brady Winston
RB ETN Hall Pollard Gibson Hines Henderson McKinnon
WR Jefferson Evans Higgins Kadarius
TE Andrews
K Blankenship
DST Colts

 

[VikingFrog]

12-team PPR TE premium

1.10 Jefferson
2.05 Andrews
3.10 Evans
4.05 Higgins
5.10 ETN
6.05 Hall
7.10 Pollard
8.05 Gibson
9.10 Brady
10.05 Kadarius
11.10 Hines
12.05 Blankenship
13.10 Henderson
14.05 McKinnon
15.10 Colts
16.05 Winston

QB Brady Winston
RB ETN Hall Pollard Gibson Hines Henderson McKinnon
WR Jefferson Evans Higgins Kadarius
TE Andrews
K Blankenship
DST Colts

I would be nervous starting those RBs. But I guess that’s why they call it an upside down draft.

 

[Navin Johnson]

12-team PPR TE premium

1.10 Jefferson
2.05 Andrews
3.10 Evans
4.05 Higgins
5.10 ETN
6.05 Hall
7.10 Pollard
8.05 Gibson
9.10 Brady
10.05 Kadarius
11.10 Hines
12.05 Blankenship
13.10 Henderson
14.05 McKinnon
15.10 Colts
16.05 Winston

QB Brady Winston
RB ETN Hall Pollard Gibson Hines Henderson McKinnon
WR Jefferson Evans Higgins Kadarius
TE Andrews
K Blankenship
DST Colts

I would be nervous starting those RBs. But I guess that’s why they call it an upside down draft.

Yeah, I get set it and forget it WRS. I think I got 7 guys with upside, just need to play match ups and hope a situation pans out