Official 1st Pick PPR (Redraft) thread*** (1 Viewer)

[Gottabesweet]

Is it too early for these? Commish randomized us today for my favorite league, in-person 25+ year casual league.

I landed 1st. Let's talk strategy and targets here for PPR settings.

My league is just your basic 6 pt per TD, PPR league Q,R,W,T with 3 flexes and a K/D with only 5 bench spots. Pretty standard, although it seems most leagues are super flex or TE premium these days.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

1.01 Jj
1.02 -> everyone else

 

[TripItUp]

I have the first pick in my main league, 10 team .5 PPR....Justin Jefferson is the only player I'm considering.(barring injury)

 

[Gottabesweet]

I Know ADP's will change a bunch but hoping for Andrew's at the turn.
6 weeks of playing with mock drafts at least beats watching baseball

 

[Chaka]

Depending on your league configuration:
Josh Allen
Christian McCaffrey
Justin Jefferson

 

[BobbyLayne]

drew the 1.02 this year

i'm pretty happy with taking either of the consensus top 2

 

[Deamon]

drew the 1.02 this year

i'm pretty happy with taking either of the consensus top 2

Who are the consensus top 2? lol

 

[titusbramble]

In non SF it seems a fairly clear Jefferson and Chase to me

 

[Deamon]

In non SF it seems a fairly clear Jefferson and Chase to me

Interesting, as fbg itself has kupp over Chase and many sites have cmc over Chase too. Not sure how Chase is clearly in the top 2 at all.

 

[titusbramble]

If I knew both Kupp and Stafford were back to 2021 levels following their injuries I'd agree with you, but there's enough uncertainty that it creates a clear enough demarcation for me

 

[Deamon]

If I knew both Kupp and Stafford were back to 2021 levels following their injuries I'd agree with you, but there's enough uncertainty that it creates a clear enough demarcation for me

I'm not really going off your opinion, I was just surprised by the "very clear top 2" statement. Chase's ppr adp is anywhere from 1.03-1.05, with CMC ranked higher than him on the majority of sites.

So I was curious who bobbylane's "clear top 2" were as #2 is completely up in the air based on what sites rankings you're looking at.

 

[pinkstapler]

My number 2 behind JJ is Ekeler lol. So I'd agree there isn't consensus on 1.02 at least. I think CMC will fall victim to Shanahan's "my system is more important than my players" mentality, losing touches as he rotates Mitchell in quite a bit. I think it will take Mitchell getting hurt and missing significant time (agree, this isn't some kinda long shot to happen lol, but I also don't want to have to bank on an injury for my 1st round pick to meet his draft spot) for CMC to wind up top 3 RB again. Otherwise they'll be trying to keep him fresh and healthy for the playoffs IMO. I still like him, but feel like Ekeler is the better option.

Also Kupp is definitively an avoid for me if I have an early pick. Too many question marks on that team, and he's been a WR1 two of his six seasons, and was barely a bottom end WR2 if not worse the other 4. I'll pass to the next guy in my list and let someone else hold that hand grenade. Gimme the higher percentage play every time with an early 1st round pick.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I'm leaning one of the RBs at 1.01. Every time I mock draft I'm a lot happier with the WRs I can grab later than I am with RBs if I go Jefferson in the 1st.

 

[rockaction]

I'm leaning one of the RBs at 1.01. Every time I mock draft I'm a lot happier with the WRs I can grab later than I am with RBs if I go Jefferson in the 1st.

Hey man, good to see you around. Always better when you're posting. Peace.

 

[BassNBrew]

I'm leaning one of the RBs at 1.01. Every time I mock draft I'm a lot happier with the WRs I can grab later than I am with RBs if I go Jefferson in the 1st.

I'm hoping Henry, Chubb, Mixon, Pollard, or Jacobs fall.

 

[fightingillini]

It all depends on who you think will be available at picks 24 and 25. Do you like the RBs or the WRs at pick 24 better? Around that pick is Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins, Devonta Smith, Tony Pollard, Breece Hall, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Najee Harris .

It's close, but I prefer Jefferson #1 and pick from those RBs (would love Pollard to drop to 24, but it's not likely).

 

[Chaka]

My number 2 behind JJ is Ekeler lol. So I'd agree there isn't consensus on 1.02 at least. I think CMC will fall victim to Shanahan's "my system is more important than my players" mentality, losing touches as he rotates Mitchell in quite a bit. I think it will take Mitchell getting hurt and missing significant time (agree, this isn't some kinda long shot to happen lol, but I also don't want to have to bank on an injury for my 1st round pick to meet his draft spot) for CMC to wind up top 3 RB again. Otherwise they'll be trying to keep him fresh and healthy for the playoffs IMO. I still like him, but feel like Ekeler is the better option.

You're overthinking it IMO. McCaffrey had 15 carries and 5 receptions/game with SF. His low was 14 touches.

Mitchell is the guy who's opportunities need to be managed.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Every time I mock draft I'm a lot happier with the WRs I can grab later than I am with RBs if I go Jefferson in the 1st.

It is July though. Mocks tend to get squirrely in July.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Tony Pollard,, Rhamondre Stevenson

In the 4-5?high stakes league drafts I’ve seen on YouTube, Pollard is consistently a 10-16 pick. Stevenson usually within a pick or 2.

On draft sharks Pollard is currently ADP 19th and Stevenson 22nd.

Things change, but I’d bet that one would have virtually zero chance of landing either at the 2.12/3.01 turn.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You're overthinking it IMO. McCaffrey had 15 carries and 5 receptions/game with SF. His low was 14 touches.

Mitchell is the guy who's opportunities need to be managed.

This is the correct answer.

 

[Weebs210]

It's been literally 5+ years for me to get a top 5 pick across four leagues...you can't make this stuff up. But yeah it's gotta be JJ or Chase.

 

[barackdhouse]

I think Chase is due for his best career year. Or at least that was what I thought before Burrow was carted off yesterday. Otherwise I go CMC then Kelce then Tyreek. Then Jefferson. I love all 5 though.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It's been literally 5+ years for me to get a top 5 pick across four leagues...you can't make this stuff up. But yeah it's gotta be JJ or Chase.

I went through a 7 year stretch like that across 3 leagues. it’s brutal.

 

[barackdhouse]

I don't understand why people do mock drafts anymore. Just do the $5 best balls and get the same info. You have to really suck to not break even if you do 10 or more of those. And if you lose a couple is it much worse than a subscription fee? Might as well get some stake, too. The UD $5 slow puppy pays $75k to first.

 

[jon007]

IMO CMC looks like the clear and obvious choice at #1. To me other scenarios look like you'll drafting behind. With CMC first the draft can still come to you.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don't understand why people do mock drafts anymore. Just do the $5 best balls and get the same info. You have to really suck to not break even if you do 10 or more of those. And if you lose a couple is it much worse than a subscription fee? Might as well get some stake, too. The UD $5 slow puppy pays $75k to first.

I agree. I’d rather watch real draft results on YT than mock.

I’ll use the FBG draft buddy to simulate a mock or two if I want to work on strategy / ADP awareness.

But in general people in Mocks are acting so goofy there’s very little value to them. And most participants go on auto pick after 1-2 rounds. Not to mention, many of them are trying out stuff they won’t actually do in real drafts. Just worthless.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I don't understand why people do mock drafts anymore. Just do the $5 best balls and get the same info. You have to really suck to not break even if you do 10 or more of those. And if you lose a couple is it much worse than a subscription fee? Might as well get some stake, too. The UD $5 slow puppy pays $75k to first.

I agree. I’d rather watch real draft results on YT than mock.

I’ll use the FBG draft buddy to simulate a mock or two if I want to work on strategy / ADP awareness.

But in general people in Mocks are acting so goofy there’s very little value to them. And most participants go on auto pick after 1-2 rounds. Not to mention, many of them are trying out stuff they won’t actually do in real drafts. Just worthless.

I'm not allowed to play fantasy sports for money as a condition of my profession.

When I say "mock draft" though I really mean I'm running through all the scenarios myself, not against randos on the internet. I've got decades of data on my leaguemates so I have a pretty good idea of how the first few rounds will shake out. I just run through all the likely scenarios and I consistently end up happier when I grab a RB first and wait on WRs. YMMV of course, but my league doesn't tend to stray too far from your general ADP.

 

[Gottabesweet]

I'm leaning one of the RBs at 1.01. Every time I mock draft I'm a lot happier with the WRs I can grab than I am with RBs if I go Jefferson in the 1st.

I'm hoping Henry, Chubb, Mixon, Pollard, or Jacobs fall.

To 23/24?

I'd be ok with a JJ/Andrews/Mixon start or a JJ/Waddle/Mixon start and figure out TE/QB later.

I'm in a shallow league Q,R,W,T,F,F,F with 5 bench, it always seems those who land a stud QB or TE do well.

With only needing to start one RB, I may risk RB till round 4/5 and hope for a Swift or even a Cook in round 7. Roll with 1RB, 4WR starting.

 

[Gottabesweet]

When I mock I just use the FBG DD app and set the "smart" level of each of the owners. it's never accurate but helps deciding what way to try and build my team.

 

[BassNBrew]

I don't understand why people do mock drafts anymore. Just do the $5 best balls and get the same info. You have to really suck to not break even if you do 10 or more of those. And if you lose a couple is it much worse than a subscription fee? Might as well get some stake, too. The UD $5 slow puppy pays $75k to first.

I agree. I’d rather watch real draft results on YT than mock.

I’ll use the FBG draft buddy to simulate a mock or two if I want to work on strategy / ADP awareness.

But in general people in Mocks are acting so goofy there’s very little value to them. And most participants go on auto pick after 1-2 rounds. Not to mention, many of them are trying out stuff they won’t actually do in real drafts. Just worthless.

I'm not allowed to play fantasy sports for money as a condition of my profession.

When I say "mock draft" though I really mean I'm running through all the scenarios myself, not against randos on the internet. I've got decades of data on my leaguemates so I have a pretty good idea of how the first few rounds will shake out. I just run through all the likely scenarios and I consistently end up happier when I grab a RB first and wait on WRs. YMMV of course, but my league doesn't tend to stray too far from your general ADP.

Wishing you a great comeback Calvin.

 

[BassNBrew]

I'm leaning one of the RBs at 1.01. Every time I mock draft I'm a lot happier with the WRs I can grab than I am with RBs if I go Jefferson in the 1st.

I'm hoping Henry, Chubb, Mixon, Pollard, or Jacobs fall.

To 23/24?

I'd be ok with a JJ/Andrews/Mixon start or a JJ/Waddle/Mixon start and figure out TE/QB later.

I'm in a shallow league Q,R,W,T,F,F,F with 5 bench, it always seems those who land a stud QB or TE do well.

With only needing to start one RB, I may risk RB till round 4/5 and hope for a Swift or even a Cook in round 7. Roll with 1RB, 4WR starting.

Yeah....and I like your direction here.

 

[BassNBrew]

Q,R,W,T with 3 flexes and a K/D with only 5 bench spots

I think people need to dig into this further.

With only 5 bench slots I'd want as many WRs as possible as opposed to RBs. There will be ww RBs once injuries start. I have to think most will only take one QB, I could see punting QB to the last round. If you tie up two spots on QB then that only leaves 4 spots to back 6 starters.

 

[barackdhouse]

With only 5 bench slots I'd want as many WRs as possible as opposed to RBs.

I think this is key this year regardless of format. Obviously there are many paths that can lead to a ship but I do tend to agree going with WRs early and to your point about the shallow benches, there will be RB options on the wire. I think CMC and Kelce are basically the two exceptions.

 

[-jb-]

It's been literally 5+ years for me to get a top 5 pick across four leagues...you can't make this stuff up. But yeah it's gotta be JJ or Chase.

I went through a 7 year stretch like that across 3 leagues. it’s brutal.

I got the 1.01 two years ago. Outside of that, it has been 13 years of picks 9-12.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It's been literally 5+ years for me to get a top 5 pick across four leagues...you can't make this stuff up. But yeah it's gotta be JJ or Chase.

I went through a 7 year stretch like that across 3 leagues. it’s brutal.

I got the 1.01 two years ago. Outside of that, it has been 13 years of picks 9-12.

Naturally in FBB where I really want an 8-12 I’ve had nothing but top 5 picks for the last 10 years.

wtf

 

[Deamon]

drew the 1.02 this year

i'm pretty happy with taking either of the consensus top 2

Bobby, still really curious who your consensus 2nd guy is lol

 

[BobbyLayne]

drew the 1.02 this year

i'm pretty happy with taking either of the consensus top 2

Bobby, still really curious who your consensus 2nd guy is lol

it changes all the time

Spoiler

IOW we have a lot of league members on here

 

[Deamon]

drew the 1.02 this year

i'm pretty happy with taking either of the consensus top 2

Bobby, still really curious who your consensus 2nd guy is lol

it changes all the time

Spoiler

IOW we have a lot of league members on here

lol ah, lame.

But if you have the #2, why does it matter if anyone in the league knows who the 'consensus top 2' are? You'll get one of them and no one can stop you haha.

Also, if you're worried about people in your league knowing who the 'consensus top 2' are, then they must not be very 'consensus'

 

[BobbyLayne]

drew the 1.02 this year

i'm pretty happy with taking either of the consensus top 2

Bobby, still really curious who your consensus 2nd guy is lol

it changes all the time

Spoiler

IOW we have a lot of league members on here

lol ah, lame.

But if you have the #2, why does it matter if anyone in the league knows who the 'consensus top 2' are? You'll get one of them and no one can stop you haha.

Also, if you're worried about people in your league knowing who the 'consensus top 2' are, then they must not be very 'consensus'

 

[Weebs210]

It's been literally 5+ years for me to get a top 5 pick across four leagues...you can't make this stuff up. But yeah it's gotta be JJ or Chase.

I went through a 7 year stretch like that across 3 leagues. it’s brutal.

I got the 1.01 two years ago. Outside of that, it has been 13 years of picks 9-12.

Naturally in FBB where I really want an 8-12 I’ve had nothing but top 5 picks for the last 10 years.

wtf

Fantasy gods can be cruel

 

[gucci little piggy]

How would you guys feel about starting with: Jefferson, Andrews, and one of the big-3 QBs(if they make it that far)?

 

[efactor]

I don't understand why people do mock drafts anymore. Just do the $5 best balls and get the same info. You have to really suck to not break even if you do 10 or more of those. And if you lose a couple is it much worse than a subscription fee? Might as well get some stake, too. The UD $5 slow puppy pays $75k to first.

Yeah, they are fun. Do a lot of the $5 and $10 quick drafts. Less than an hour and gives you a good idea of how your team will look taking different approaches. I put in about $150 last year and kind of forgot about it. When I logged on this year, had over $300 in my account, which was a nice surprise.

 

[Deamon]

I don't understand why people do mock drafts anymore. Just do the $5 best balls and get the same info. You have to really suck to not break even if you do 10 or more of those. And if you lose a couple is it much worse than a subscription fee? Might as well get some stake, too. The UD $5 slow puppy pays $75k to first.

Yeah, they are fun. Do a lot of the $5 and $10 quick drafts. Less than an hour and gives you a good idea of how your team will look taking different approaches. I put in about $150 last year and kind of forgot about it. When I logged on this year, had over $300 in my account, which was a nice surprise.

What's the link for these?

 

[efactor]

How would you guys feel about starting with: Jefferson, Andrews, and one of the big-3 QBs(if they make it that far)?

Personally, I hate taking two of the start 1 positions that early. Always seem to hate either my RB or WR room.

 

[efactor]

I don't understand why people do mock drafts anymore. Just do the $5 best balls and get the same info. You have to really suck to not break even if you do 10 or more of those. And if you lose a couple is it much worse than a subscription fee? Might as well get some stake, too. The UD $5 slow puppy pays $75k to first.

Yeah, they are fun. Do a lot of the $5 and $10 quick drafts. Less than an hour and gives you a good idea of how your team will look taking different approaches. I put in about $150 last year and kind of forgot about it. When I logged on this year, had over $300 in my account, which was a nice surprise.

What's the link for these?

Underdog Fantasy: Daily and Season-Long Fantasy Contests

Underdog Fantasy is the best place to play fantasy sports including Best Ball, Daily Drafts and Pick’em. Start drafting in minutes for a shot at big cash prizes. Available on iOS, Android and Web

underdogfantasy.com

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

How would you guys feel about starting with: Jefferson, Andrews, and one of the big-3 QBs(if they make it that far)?

I don’t mind it at all - I’m sure I could win with that + some combo of Monty, Gibson, and other later RBs. I’d go one step further and start with JJ, Andrews, LJax/Burrow, and a WR2, and then attack the RB position.

Definitely a viable strategy.

ETA: That said, I’d prefer going JJ, TE, WR, WR, RB, RB then taking a sleepy QB in a start-1 format.

 

[titusbramble]

How would you guys feel about starting with: Jefferson, Andrews, and one of the big-3 QBs(if they make it that far)?

I'm not sure that would give me enough of an advantage at non-RB positions to contemplate it. But that's maybe me not wanting to take a non-Kelce TE anywhere early.

 

[Ilov80s]

I am just starting to look at it but I think I have JJ at 1 and CMC at 2

 

[Gottabesweet]

How would you guys feel about starting with: Jefferson, Andrews, and one of the big-3 QBs(if they make it that far)?

If you have to start 2 RBs then I’d avoid going TE and QB both early as you’ll be playing catch up.

QBs always go higher in my league than ADP. Allen is always a homer pick in round 1 then Mahomes usually quickly follows in panic.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I am just starting to look at it but I think I have JJ at 1 and CMC at 2

I think I’d go Chase over CMC.

I just have such a hard time trusting CMC. Both times I’ve spent a top 4 pick on him I’ve been burned.

I know, I know. It’s not completely rational. But i can’t shake it. If I don’t draft him he’ll be a top 3 FF player. If I draft him he’ll miss 9 weeks with injury.