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***Official*** 2011 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread

Here's my 4 year old's team:

QB - Matt Cassel - KC/6 - $15

QB - Jason Campbell - OAK/8 - $12

QB - Rex Grossman - WAS/5 - $8

QB - Blaine Gabbert - JAX/9 - $7

RB - Arian Foster - HOU/11 - $38

RB - Chris Johnson - TEN/6 - $36

RB - Rashard Mendenhall - PIT/11 - $31

RB - Shonn Greene - NYJ/8 - $26

RB - Ahmad Bradshaw - NYG/7 - $25

RB - Joseph Addai - IND/11 - $20

RB - Knowshon Moreno - DEN/6 - $18

WR - Andre Johnson - HOU/11 - $33

WR - Roddy White - ATL/8 - $30

WR - Dwayne Bowe - KC/6 - $24

WR - Wes Welker - NE/7 - $23

WR - Percy Harvin - MIN/9 - $22

WR - Jeremy Maclin - PHI/7 - $20

WR - Mario Manningham - NYG/7 - $19

WR - Jerricho Cotchery - PIT/11 - $5

TE - Jermaine Gresham - CIN/7 - $10

TE - Heath Miller - PIT/11 - $9

PK - Matt Prater - DEN/6 - $3

PK - Dan Carpenter - MIA/5 - $3

TD - Oakland Raiders - OAK/8 - $4

 
Here's my 4 year old's team:QB - Matt Cassel - KC/6 - $15QB - Jason Campbell - OAK/8 - $12QB - Rex Grossman - WAS/5 - $8QB - Blaine Gabbert - JAX/9 - $7RB - Arian Foster - HOU/11 - $38RB - Chris Johnson - TEN/6 - $36RB - Rashard Mendenhall - PIT/11 - $31RB - Shonn Greene - NYJ/8 - $26RB - Ahmad Bradshaw - NYG/7 - $25RB - Joseph Addai - IND/11 - $20RB - Knowshon Moreno - DEN/6 - $18WR - Andre Johnson - HOU/11 - $33WR - Roddy White - ATL/8 - $30WR - Dwayne Bowe - KC/6 - $24WR - Wes Welker - NE/7 - $23WR - Percy Harvin - MIN/9 - $22WR - Jeremy Maclin - PHI/7 - $20WR - Mario Manningham - NYG/7 - $19WR - Jerricho Cotchery - PIT/11 - $5TE - Jermaine Gresham - CIN/7 - $10TE - Heath Miller - PIT/11 - $9PK - Matt Prater - DEN/6 - $3PK - Dan Carpenter - MIA/5 - $3TD - Oakland Raiders - OAK/8 - $4
Probably should wait until he can add.
 
Hey, is there a link to past contest winners? I wanted to see how they've fared as far as roster balance between positions. I want more WRs, but I don't want to go too cheap on RBs.

 
Here is your winner, thanks for playing.

Back to entry form

Your team has been successfully entered.

QB - Matthew Stafford - DET/9 - $18

QB - Josh Freeman - TB/8 - $18

RB - Ray Rice - BAL/5 - $35

RB - Darren McFadden - OAK/8 - $28

RB - Willis McGahee - DEN/6 - $11

RB - Montario Hardesty - CLE/5 - $4

RB - Cadillac Williams - STL/5 - $3

RB - Marion Barber - CHI/8 - $3

WR - Larry Fitzgerald - ARI/6 - $28

WR - Brandon Marshall - MIA/5 - $24

WR - Steve Johnson - BUF/7 - $19

WR - Danny Amendola - STL/5 - $8

WR - Nate Washington - TEN/6 - $5

WR - Denarius Moore - OAK/8 - $3

WR - Michael Jenkins - MIN/9 - $2

TE - Jimmy Graham - NO/11 - $15

TE - Greg Olsen - CAR/9 - $9

TE - David Thomas - NO/11 - $2

PK - Sebastian Janikowski - OAK/8 - $4

PK - Jay Feely - ARI/6 - $2

TD - New England Patriots - NE/7 - $7

TD - Denver Broncos - DEN/6 - $2

 
QB - Matthew Stafford - DET/9 - $18

QB - Sam Bradford - STL/5 - $17

RB - Jamaal Charles - KC/6 - $34

RB - Mark Ingram - NO/11 - $26

RB - Chris Wells - ARI/6 - $16

RB - Kendall Hunter - SF/7 - $6

RB - Jason Snelling - ATL/8 - $6

RB - Cadillac Williams - STL/5 - $3

WR - Dez Bryant - DAL/5 - $21

WR - Austin Collie - IND/11 - $19

WR - James Jones - GB/8 - $9

WR - Eddie Royal - DEN/6 - $7

WR - Jordan Shipley - CIN/7 - $4

WR - Antonio Brown - PIT/11 - $3

WR - Riley Cooper - PHI/7 - $3

WR - Denarius Moore - OAK/8 - $3

TE - Jermichael Finley - GB/8 - $22

TE - Jared Cook - TEN/6 - $12

TE - Lance Kendricks - STL/5 - $6

PK - Ryan Succop - KC/6 - $3

PK - Connor Barth - TB/8 - $3

PK - Olindo Mare - CAR/9 - $2

TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/6 - $3

TD - Buffalo Bills - BUF/7 - $2

TD - Jacksonville Jaguars - JAX/9 - $2

Thoughts? went with a slightly shorter roster but more security at RB

 
Who are the notable exclusions? Shaun Hill has been mentioned. I'm not seeing Ridley. Stroughter and Spurlock are there, but no Briscoe for TB. There is no Washington kicker, as Graham was released... so not many $2 kickers left.
not a single Denver TE
 
So has anyone come up with any kinds of value metrics for players to help assemble their roster quantitatively? Curious if anyone out there is taking this kind of approach.

 
So has anyone come up with any kinds of value metrics for players to help assemble their roster quantitatively? Curious if anyone out there is taking this kind of approach.
This all goes right out the window as soon as your star player gets hurt.That's why 20 kickers is the way to go. They dont really get hurt.
 
So has anyone come up with any kinds of value metrics for players to help assemble their roster quantitatively? Curious if anyone out there is taking this kind of approach.
Actually, I've been running some pivot tables on the top 5 winners over the last 3 years to determine if anything looks consistent. A couple of observations:On average, the following roster lineup and cost is in the top 5.

[*]QB: 2 - $46 (STDEV: $43-50)

[*]RB: 7 - $80 (STDEV: $75-91)

[*]WR: 8 - $80 (STDEV: $76-98)

[*]TE: 3 - $28 (STDEV: $18-28)

[*]PK: 3 - $7 (STDEV: $4-7)

[*]TD: 2 - $9 (STDEV: $4-9)

The deviations are slightly off as I used percentages to determine dollar range on the top scorers from 2010-2008 (2007 looked to be some crazy outliers).

Does this data mean anything? Probably not, but I was curious to run it. FWIW, my roster now looks like this:

[*]QB: 3 - $45

[*]RB: 7 - $82

[*]WR: 8 - $79

[*]TE: 3 - $30

[*]PK: 3 - $6

[*]TD: 2 - $8

Guess we will see where I rank at the end of the season.

 
So has anyone come up with any kinds of value metrics for players to help assemble their roster quantitatively? Curious if anyone out there is taking this kind of approach.
Actually, I've been running some pivot tables on the top 5 winners over the last 3 years to determine if anything looks consistent. A couple of observations:On average, the following roster lineup and cost is in the top 5.

[*]QB: 2 - $46 (STDEV: $43-50)

[*]RB: 7 - $80 (STDEV: $75-91)

[*]WR: 8 - $80 (STDEV: $76-98)

[*]TE: 3 - $28 (STDEV: $18-28)

[*]PK: 3 - $7 (STDEV: $4-7)

[*]TD: 2 - $9 (STDEV: $4-9)

The deviations are slightly off as I used percentages to determine dollar range on the top scorers from 2010-2008 (2007 looked to be some crazy outliers).

Does this data mean anything? Probably not, but I was curious to run it. FWIW, my roster now looks like this:

[*]QB: 3 - $45

[*]RB: 7 - $82

[*]WR: 8 - $79

[*]TE: 3 - $30

[*]PK: 3 - $6

[*]TD: 2 - $8

Guess we will see where I rank at the end of the season.
Interestingly, the three-year average you came up with sums to 25 players, even though a roster of 25+ players wasn't even an option until last year.
 
So has anyone come up with any kinds of value metrics for players to help assemble their roster quantitatively? Curious if anyone out there is taking this kind of approach.
This all goes right out the window as soon as your star player gets hurt.That's why 20 kickers is the way to go. They dont really get hurt.
I agree, all evidence points to the many-kickers strategy as a winning formula. 20 might be pushing it, though. Optimal rooster is something like 2 QB, 4 RB, 5 WR, 2 TE, 15 K, 2 D, imo.
 
Interestingly, the three-year average you came up with sums to 25 players, even though a roster of 25+ players wasn't even an option until last year.
Probably because the top 5 teams in 2008 all had 22 players and then 2009-2010 had upwards of 30. They skewed the numbers toward the mid range. My guess as the spreadsheet is back at my office.
 
Interestingly, the three-year average you came up with sums to 25 players, even though a roster of 25+ players wasn't even an option until last year.
Probably because the top 5 teams in 2008 all had 22 players and then 2009-2010 had upwards of 30. They skewed the numbers toward the mid range. My guess as the spreadsheet is back at my office.
The max roster size in 2009 was 24. In any case, I understand why the average is what it is, I just find it interesting in light of previous years' strategy discussions.
 
Interestingly, the three-year average you came up with sums to 25 players, even though a roster of 25+ players wasn't even an option until last year.
Probably because the top 5 teams in 2008 all had 22 players and then 2009-2010 had upwards of 30. They skewed the numbers toward the mid range. My guess as the spreadsheet is back at my office.
The max roster size in 2009 was 24. In any case, I understand why the average is what it is, I just find it interesting in light of previous years' strategy discussions.
Rechecked the stats, here's some more data to chew on:2008

[*]Average roster count for top 5: 22 players

[*]QB: 3

[*]RB: 6

[*]WR: 7

[*]TE: 2

[*]PK: 2

[*]TD: 2

2009

[*]Average roster count for top 5: 24 players (Note: Rounding errors for #s of players, primarily the extra is built into RB/WR/TE, they were all 0.6 of a player)

[*]QB: 2

[*]RB: 7

[*]WR: 8

[*]TE: 3

[*]PK: 3

[*]TD: 2

2010

[*]Average roster count for top 5: 26 players

[*]QB: 2

[*]RB: 7

[*]WR: 8

[*]TE: 3

[*]PK: 3

[*]TD: 3

Basically I used 2009/2010 as the drivers for positional counts (forgot 2009 didn't allow up to 30 players) and then standard deviation on amount spent by position category (based on 08-10) to determine the dollar amounts for each positional area.

 
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I'm sure I'll adjust a "few" more times, but right now I'm going mid-grade stud heavy with 21 players.

QB - $50 / 3 (working different theories here, there are a couple QBs I want but will probably only get one true target in the end)

RB - $76 / 5 (a couple targets, but I'm really uncertain about the top guys)

WR - $80 / 6 (a couple adjustments to come, but 4 of these guys are firm unless they get injured before the deadline)

TE - $25 / 2 (this is one area I plan to change but I like both of these guys)

PK - $8 / 3 (this is where my leftover $ goes, I want 3 but don't really care who they are)

TD - $11 / 2 (had 3 for awhile, but the nice thing about TD is there's no chance of losing it for the year)

TOTAL: 250 / 21

Right now only a few minor bye week issues. WR1 and 3 share a bye, as do two of my QBs. Otherwise it's looking good.

I wouldn't mind adding another TE and WR but I don't think it's absolutely necessary.
now what I think is my final - barring injuriesQB: 2/$34

RB: 5/$82

WR: 7/$89

TE: 3/$26

PK: 3/$8

DEF: 2/$11

a tad top heavy and week 11 could be a problem if I make it that far.

 
I'm sure I'll adjust a "few" more times, but right now I'm going mid-grade stud heavy with 21 players.

QB - $50 / 3 (working different theories here, there are a couple QBs I want but will probably only get one true target in the end)

RB - $76 / 5 (a couple targets, but I'm really uncertain about the top guys)

WR - $80 / 6 (a couple adjustments to come, but 4 of these guys are firm unless they get injured before the deadline)

TE - $25 / 2 (this is one area I plan to change but I like both of these guys)

PK - $8 / 3 (this is where my leftover $ goes, I want 3 but don't really care who they are)

TD - $11 / 2 (had 3 for awhile, but the nice thing about TD is there's no chance of losing it for the year)

TOTAL: 250 / 21

Right now only a few minor bye week issues. WR1 and 3 share a bye, as do two of my QBs. Otherwise it's looking good.

I wouldn't mind adding another TE and WR but I don't think it's absolutely necessary.
now what I think is my final - barring injuriesQB: 2/$34

RB: 5/$82

WR: 7/$89

TE: 3/$26

PK: 3/$8

DEF: 2/$11

a tad top heavy and week 11 could be a problem if I make it that far.

PK, D, and my mid range players have stayed the same.

 
I'm on version 10815. Oh, and I might need a divorce lawyer with how long I spend on this. Mrs Bankerguy is not thrilled.

 
Is it just me or is there hardly any traffic on this thread this year? Is the real "official" thread discussion going on somewhere else?

 
Is it just me or is there hardly any traffic on this thread this year? Is the real "official" thread discussion going on somewhere else?
I think it usually heats up as we get closer to the deadline, and then once rosters have been locked there's usually a flood of people posting their entries for discussion. It's still a little early for the good discussions, since (a) a lot of people don't want to post their entries until after the deadline, and (b) the real "value" plays worth discussing probably haven't emerged yet. As the preseason progresses, a few cheap guys might earn starting roles, etc. and people might start talking about that (or they might not ;) )
 
Never done this before. This is a first time. Am I doing this right??? Why do a lot of owners want to have 3 Kickers and 3 Team Defenses. ???? Just curious one how that worked. Here is my 1st attempt.

QB - Sam Bradford - STL/5 - $17

QB - Colt McCoy - CLE/5 - $10

RB - Ray Rice - BAL/5 - $35

RB - Shonn Greene - NYJ/8 - $26

RB - Chris Wells - ARI/6 - $16

RB - Tim Hightower - WAS/5 - $14

RB - Willis McGahee - DEN/6 - $11

RB - Jacquizz Rodgers - ATL/8 - $8

RB - LaRod Stephens-Howling - ARI/6 - $2

WR - Percy Harvin - MIN/9 - $22

WR - Mike Williams - TB/8 - $21

WR - Braylon Edwards - SF/7 - $9

WR - Jason Hill - JAX/9 - $7

TE - Jared Cook - TEN/6 - $12

TE - Greg Olsen - CAR/9 - $9

TE - Lance Kendricks - STL/5 - $6

PK - Neil Rackers - HOU/11 - $5

PK - Matt Bryant - ATL/8 - $4

PK - Josh Brown - STL/5 - $3

TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/8 - $5

TD - San Diego Chargers - SD/6 - $5

TD - Houston Texans - HOU/11 - $3

 
Never done this before. This is a first time. Am I doing this right??? Why do a lot of owners want to have 3 Kickers and 3 Team Defenses. ???? Just curious one how that worked. Here is my 1st attempt.
Kickers rarely get injured or demoted, frequently get opportunities to score big points, and are super-cheap. You never know on any given week which ones will blow up, though, so it pays to have a ton of them on your roster. Every year there's a couple of entries that go all-out with like 20 kickers and survive deep into the contest. It's a vastly underrated strategy.Team defenses will obviously never miss time due to injury, but they tend to score points less reliably. Still, for the same reasons as kickers, it's worth stashing as many as you can.I might drop one or two RBs and pick up more WR/K/D but otherwise it looks like you have a contender.
 
Never done this before. This is a first time. Am I doing this right??? Why do a lot of owners want to have 3 Kickers and 3 Team Defenses. ???? Just curious one how that worked. Here is my 1st attempt. QB - Sam Bradford - STL/5 - $17QB - Colt McCoy - CLE/5 - $10RB - Ray Rice - BAL/5 - $35RB - Shonn Greene - NYJ/8 - $26RB - Chris Wells - ARI/6 - $16RB - Tim Hightower - WAS/5 - $14RB - Willis McGahee - DEN/6 - $11RB - Jacquizz Rodgers - ATL/8 - $8RB - LaRod Stephens-Howling - ARI/6 - $2WR - Percy Harvin - MIN/9 - $22WR - Mike Williams - TB/8 - $21WR - Braylon Edwards - SF/7 - $9WR - Jason Hill - JAX/9 - $7TE - Jared Cook - TEN/6 - $12TE - Greg Olsen - CAR/9 - $9TE - Lance Kendricks - STL/5 - $6PK - Neil Rackers - HOU/11 - $5PK - Matt Bryant - ATL/8 - $4PK - Josh Brown - STL/5 - $3TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/8 - $5TD - San Diego Chargers - SD/6 - $5TD - Houston Texans - HOU/11 - $3
People take lots of Kickers and Defenses because their scores fluctuate wildly. It's often beneficial to spend $3 on an extra so you can get double-digit scoring there.The biggest error you need to correct is your lack of WR's. As it stands right now, you're sure of at least one "0" score in week 7 at that position, and the other weeks are not going to give you much scoring there.
 
Why do a lot of owners want to have 3 Kickers and 3 Team Defenses?
It takes 3-4 kickers to pop 10+ points from the kicker position. You do not need premier kickers, quantity is better than quality. If you have at least three, than you are more likely to average above the cut. If you only have one kicker and you hit a harsh bye week, it can knock you out if your kicker has only 2 extra points that week.Same for defenses.
 
Ok thanks for the help guys. These are all good points to take under consideration. So have a decent amount of Kickers. Take more WR's then RB's. And also make sure you account for bye weeks. Am I missing anything??? :unsure: :bag:

 
Never done this before. This is a first time. Am I doing this right??? Why do a lot of owners want to have 3 Kickers and 3 Team Defenses. ???? Just curious one how that worked. Here is my 1st attempt. QB - Sam Bradford - STL/5 - $17QB - Colt McCoy - CLE/5 - $10RB - Ray Rice - BAL/5 - $35RB - Tim Hightower - WAS/5 - $14
If you survive week 5, you'll be fine.
 
'Ignoratio Elenchi said:
'wollac said:
Is it just me or is there hardly any traffic on this thread this year? Is the real "official" thread discussion going on somewhere else?
I think it usually heats up as we get closer to the deadline, and then once rosters have been locked there's usually a flood of people posting their entries for discussion. It's still a little early for the good discussions, since (a) a lot of people don't want to post their entries until after the deadline, and (b) the real "value" plays worth discussing probably haven't emerged yet. As the preseason progresses, a few cheap guys might earn starting roles, etc. and people might start talking about that (or they might not ;) )
:goodposting:Pretty much the case.-QG
 
I swear, the amount of enjoyment I get just tweaking this lineup several times a day is worth the subscription price alone.

 
When is the deadline for this thing? I found a roster I really like but I'm sure I'll still change it another five/six hundred thousand times. Please help me stop.

 
Not much discussions at this time because giving advice prior to the lock will just make less scrub teams and reduce ones own team to advance. Overall though, the pricing is quite competitive this year which will make who you pick at certain $ amounts very important. Tough decisions...

 
'wollac said:
Is it just me or is there hardly any traffic on this thread this year? Is the real "official" thread discussion going on somewhere else?
Wait till the % owned stats come out and then QG and Iggy start posting database stuff and unique perspectives... It's the most wonderful time of the year!
 
When is the deadline for this thing? I found a roster I really like but I'm sure I'll still change it another five/six hundred thousand times. Please help me stop.
I have changed my first one just 3 times and am going to leave it be until the last few days when everything is clearer regarding injuries, starters, sleepers, etc.
 
Not much discussions at this time because giving advice prior to the lock will just make less scrub teams and reduce ones own team to advance. Overall though, the pricing is quite competitive this year which will make who you pick at certain $ amounts very important. Tough decisions...
What if we are showing our fake teams to screw with the competition? There are like 10,000 entries in this thing, I think you are safe.
 
With every change, I seem to bring in more players (up to 29) by trading in studs for multiple players under $10. My latest version has 9 WR all at $10 or less...and this was after I had three $19 on my first draft. I don't have any RB 18 or above, but I have six between $11 and $17.

One hundred versions down, and I still haven't looked at a two-headed-monster-TE design yet...

As mentioned, this and the playoff contest are easily worth the price of the subscription. The in-season content is also very helpful for weekly picks.

 
Currently considering this, but I'm sure I'm going to screw with this at least another couple hundred times before it's locked down(I've changed it twice since I friggin' posted this. Geezuz)....

QBs: 3@$43

RBs: 6@$90

WRs: 8@$64

TEs: 4@$22

PKs: 6@$18

DEF: 3@$13

Will probably fall back to 5 PKs to allow me to upgrade that 3rd QB...and then change my mind again immediately.

I have no idea why this thing gives me such OCD every year, but it does(that isn't necessarily a complaint).

 
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Not much discussions at this time because giving advice prior to the lock will just make less scrub teams and reduce ones own team to advance. Overall though, the pricing is quite competitive this year which will make who you pick at certain $ amounts very important. Tough decisions...
What if we are showing our fake teams to screw with the competition? There are like 10,000 entries in this thing, I think you are safe.
It's more the correcting of those who don't read the rules or look at some other basic things. I'd rather not be helping tailor a number of teams though pre-lock in advice as it can mess with one's unique factor... (a topic which will undoubtably be talked about much after the 1/2 point...) :bag:
 
Not much discussions at this time because giving advice prior to the lock will just make less scrub teams and reduce ones own team to advance. Overall though, the pricing is quite competitive this year which will make who you pick at certain $ amounts very important. Tough decisions...
What if we are showing our fake teams to screw with the competition? There are like 10,000 entries in this thing, I think you are safe.
Every year we see posts about how someone just misses the cutoff. You are correct that you are likely safe helping other people improve their team, but you are not 100% safe. Based on what's been posted in this thread, there are so many flawed and doomed entiries in this thing, any advice should be moving the cut lines up.
 
Ok thanks for the help guys. These are all good points to take under consideration. So have a decent amount of Kickers. Take more WR's then RB's. And also make sure you account for bye weeks. Am I missing anything??? :unsure: :bag:
Only the customary acknowledgement to pay 10% of your winnings to each of those who gave you advise. :D
 
This is one I was toying around with for fun. Its a work in progress of course. So is it better to have 3 QB's or 3 TE's do you guys think????

QB - Matthew Stafford - DET/9 - $18

QB - Sam Bradford - STL/5 - $17

QB - Colt McCoy - CLE/5 - $10

RB - Rashard Mendenhall - PIT/11 - $31

RB - Mark Ingram - NO/11 - $26

RB - Chris Wells - ARI/6 - $16

RB - Tim Hightower - WAS/5 - $14

RB - LaRod Stephens-Howling - ARI/6 - $2

WR - Vincent Jackson - SD/6 - $25

WR - Dez Bryant - DAL/5 - $21

WR - Braylon Edwards - SF/7 - $9

WR - Danny Amendola - STL/5 - $8

WR - Antonio Brown - PIT/11 - $3

WR - Dexter McCluster - KC/6 - $2

TE - Jared Cook - TEN/6 - $12

TE - Greg Olsen - CAR/9 - $9

PK - Matt Bryant - ATL/8 - $4

PK - Rob Bironas - TEN/6 - $3

PK - Josh Brown - STL/5 - $3

TD - Philadelphia Eagles - PHI/7 - $7

TD - Baltimore Ravens - BAL/5 - $6

TD - Kansas City Chiefs - KC/6 - $4

 
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