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*** Official 2012-13 Hot Stove Thread (1 Viewer)

'dparker713 said:
'Tremendous Upside said:
Option vests with 550 PAs in 2016 and a passed physical
550 PAs is not an easily vested option
It's about as easy as a vesting option gets IMO:shrug:
Grady Sizemore hasn't had 550 PAs since 2008. Pronk hasn't had 550 since 2007.
If Swisher is playing well then I would not think Cleveland would care that he surpasses 550 PA's. If he's not playing well he can be justifiably benched. Not a bad position for Cleveland.
 
Nine age 35 or older players had 550 PA last season. There has been 31 in the last three seasons.

Another way to look at it:

Nick Swisher had 624 PA last season at age 31. There were six players with 624 PA at age 31 in 2008. Only Michael Young and Carlos Beltran also had 550 PA at age 35 in 2012. There were 12 in 2007 (age 31 & 624 PA) and five of them had 550 PA in 2011. Only one out of six in 2010. So in the last three seasons, 33% of players who had age 31 seasons with at least Swisher's 624 PA also accumulated 550 PA in their age 35 season.

 
It's become a bit semantical...

My point was more that if you're going to bother with a vesting option, that's about as low a threshold as you could make it

But anyhoo, about Mike Napoli's hip...catchers don't use their hips much, right?

 
There is some amazing programming on MLB Network over the next few days. Fill up that DVR!

(Ken Burns stuff and some other 3-hour documentaries)

 
What do you think the Pirates are competing for this year? They're at least 1-2 years away.
Theyve been close the last two years before fizzling out and they signed martin and liriano. Youre kidding yourself if you dont think they have playoff aspirations especially with two wild cards. And then they go and trade their second most important player?
Second most important player?
 
What do you think the Pirates are competing for this year? They're at least 1-2 years away.
Theyve been close the last two years before fizzling out and they signed martin and liriano. Youre kidding yourself if you dont think they have playoff aspirations especially with two wild cards. And then they go and trade their second most important player?
Second most important player?
Name their all star representatives in 2011 & 2012
 
What do you think the Pirates are competing for this year? They're at least 1-2 years away.
Theyve been close the last two years before fizzling out and they signed martin and liriano. Youre kidding yourself if you dont think they have playoff aspirations especially with two wild cards. And then they go and trade their second most important player?
Second most important player?
Name their all star representatives in 2011 & 2012
:mellow:
 
'Doctor Detroit said:
Moops thinks this is the deal of the century, guessing he'll be disappointed when Napoli plays 43 games next year. Then again as a Yanks, Red Sox and Twins fan maybe he'll be able to adjust fire and forget about the Sux failures. :shrug:
:lmao: I love you DD.I don't think I ever said that the Napoli signing was the deal of the century. I find it to be pretty close to right in line with what he deserves. You think three years is a ridiculous length of a contract. I think my position is far less outrageous than yours.If he is hurt and plays 42 games, obviously it will be a terrible deal. If he plays in the middle of his 2011 and 2012 years, it will be a decent deal.I also never said I was a Yankee fan. I said I was a fan of good baseball, and those Yankee teams of the 2000's were as good as they come. I enjoy watching players that are really good at baseball, play baseball. Whether it is Jeter, or Rivera, or Papi, or Manny, really doesn't change that.
 
What do you think the Pirates are competing for this year? They're at least 1-2 years away.
Theyve been close the last two years before fizzling out and they signed martin and liriano. Youre kidding yourself if you dont think they have playoff aspirations especially with two wild cards. And then they go and trade their second most important player?
Second most important player?
Name their all star representatives in 2011 & 2012
shtick?
 
What do you think the Pirates are competing for this year? They're at least 1-2 years away.
Theyve been close the last two years before fizzling out and they signed martin and liriano. Youre kidding yourself if you dont think they have playoff aspirations especially with two wild cards. And then they go and trade their second most important player?
Second most important player?
Name their all star representatives in 2011 & 2012
This is ridiculous. If we were going by that criteria, Oakland's most important player was Ryan Cook. You're better than this.
 
No one I see reporting 70 mill, probably 4/56 with a team option maybe.Swisher is exactly what the Indians needed although you have to wonder why they didn't try to give some of that to Choo and keep him around instead. Indians have some serious pitching issues but they'll hit.
The Tribe was better off dealing Choo for Bauer and spending for Swisher. It's not a big overpay for now. We'll see where he is in four years.
True, but the Indians seemed set on moving Choo + adding Swish for a while. Choo is a quiet clubhouse guy and the Indians needed more of a leader. Choo is a very good leadoff hitter, but the Indians have a greater need for middle of the order power. Choo can only really play RF, Swish can play both RF and 1B. Choo's a lefty, the Indians are loaded with lefties, they need some guys who can bat right handed to break up the order. Yeah, the 5th year vest isn't a crazy # for Swish to hit, but if he does that tells me he is still healthy so he will still have use for the Tribe. If he falls short it's because he started breaking down.Cleveland's a starting arm away from being in the hunt in the Central and they're still short of last year's payroll figure, Lohse still in play?
 
More importantly on Choo - he was in the last year of his contract with the Indians and they felt they had zero chance of re-signing him

 
Can anyone in here tell me WTF the Rangers are doing? (besides nothing) I don't get the lack of moves.
Don't need to do anything, great organizational depth top to bottom and the major league core is intact. They have stayed in on everything, but haven't seemed interested unless the price is right...just hasn't been the right deal yet. Smart strategy imho.If they need to do something come March or July they have all of the ammo in the world to throw out there on the trade market. If they don't need to do anything then the rich get richer as their star prospects develop internally.
 
Can anyone in here tell me WTF the Rangers are doing? (besides nothing) I don't get the lack of moves.
Don't need to do anything, great organizational depth top to bottom and the major league core is intact. They have stayed in on everything, but haven't seemed interested unless the price is right...just hasn't been the right deal yet. Smart strategy imho.If they need to do something come March or July they have all of the ammo in the world to throw out there on the trade market. If they don't need to do anything then the rich get richer as their star prospects develop internally.
This
 
Shady, honestly I think the way the Pirates performed in the first half of the past 2 seasons was a facade. The cards were falling right but over a 162 game season, they're not a playoff contender yet. Their future rides on 2 young pitchers who will be up in 2014
I think they are certainly a contender. They clearly think they are, given the moves they have made.
 
'dparker713 said:
Option vests with 550 PAs in 2016 and a passed physical
550 PAs is not an easily vested option
It's about as easy as a vesting option gets IMO:shrug:
Even if you average 4.5 PA/g, you need to be healthy for 122 full games. 4.5 PA/g really requires you to hit in the top 4 spots in the lineup. Only 114 players got to 550 PA in 2012. Last year Swisher got 624 PAs and he'll be 35 or 36 when he's trying to vest this option. Frankly, if he's healthy enough to play 120+ games and good enough to hit in the top half of the lineup, the Indians would want to pick up the option anyway.
 
Can anyone in here tell me WTF the Rangers are doing? (besides nothing) I don't get the lack of moves.
Don't need to do anything, great organizational depth top to bottom and the major league core is intact. They have stayed in on everything, but haven't seemed interested unless the price is right...just hasn't been the right deal yet. Smart strategy imho.If they need to do something come March or July they have all of the ammo in the world to throw out there on the trade market. If they don't need to do anything then the rich get richer as their star prospects develop internally.
Except Olt is blocked by Beltre and he loses a ton of value if they move him off 3B. Plus, they have a logjam up the middle at 2b and SS.
 
Can anyone in here tell me WTF the Rangers are doing? (besides nothing) I don't get the lack of moves.
Don't need to do anything, great organizational depth top to bottom and the major league core is intact. They have stayed in on everything, but haven't seemed interested unless the price is right...just hasn't been the right deal yet. Smart strategy imho.If they need to do something come March or July they have all of the ammo in the world to throw out there on the trade market. If they don't need to do anything then the rich get richer as their star prospects develop internally.
Except Olt is blocked by Beltre and he loses a ton of value if they move him off 3B. Plus, they have a logjam up the middle at 2b and SS.
Can't make a trade thinking about just 2013, must make trades thinking about the next 3...5...7 years. Yeah, Olt is most valuable at 3B, he'll probably be the guy there eventually, but in 2013 he is the plan B if he's on the team. Make him the left handed part of the platoon at 1B and give him some righties at DH, if he proves himself then give him more. The jogjam up the middle is much ado about nothing imho. If the organization thinks Jurk is ready (I think he is) there's 2 choices - move Elvis to CF or Kinsler to the Michael Young role. The former and Gentry/Martin don't get play, no big deal. The latter and Moreland is the sacrificial lamb, again, no big deal.I don't see the problem with any of the above. Yeah, to maximize Olt's value he plays at 3B but that doesn't mean the right move is to trade him low. If he is a better option than the LH bat at 1B and the RH bad at DH then play him there, pretty simple. When Beltre's days in Texas are done, re-evaluate, and if Olt still makes the most sense at 3B then shift him back.
 
Shady, honestly I think the way the Pirates performed in the first half of the past 2 seasons was a facade. The cards were falling right but over a 162 game season, they're not a playoff contender yet. Their future rides on 2 young pitchers who will be up in 2014
I think they are certainly a contender. They clearly think they are, given the moves they have made.
Teams in the NL who currently have more talent than the Pirates -- Nationals, Braves, Phils, Cards, Reds, Brewers, Giants, Dodgers, Dbacks. As I said before, what exactly are they competing for?
 
Shady, honestly I think the way the Pirates performed in the first half of the past 2 seasons was a facade. The cards were falling right but over a 162 game season, they're not a playoff contender yet. Their future rides on 2 young pitchers who will be up in 2014
I think they are certainly a contender. They clearly think they are, given the moves they have made.
Teams in the NL who currently have more talent than the Pirates -- Nationals, Braves, Phils, Cards, Reds, Brewers, Giants, Dodgers, Dbacks. As I said before, what exactly are they competing for?
My first thought is, the playoffs.
 
Shady, honestly I think the way the Pirates performed in the first half of the past 2 seasons was a facade. The cards were falling right but over a 162 game season, they're not a playoff contender yet. Their future rides on 2 young pitchers who will be up in 2014
I think they are certainly a contender. They clearly think they are, given the moves they have made.
Teams in the NL who currently have more talent than the Pirates -- Nationals, Braves, Phils, Cards, Reds, Brewers, Giants, Dodgers, Dbacks. As I said before, what exactly are they competing for?
My first thought is, the playoffs.
No ####. The Astros are also competing for the playoffs. My original point is that it was a good idea to trade Hanrahan because they're not serious contenders this year. If they could get something decent in return, it's a good idea to move him. With that said, the jury is still out whether or not they got anything decent in return.
 
Can't make a trade thinking about just 2013, must make trades thinking about the next 3...5...7 years.
You certainly can prioritize the needs of this season ahead of the future needs of the club, especially when you're in a championship window. Flags fly forever, just as the Jays paid significant future value for immediate help, so too could the Rangers. They're in a tough but winable division. Their best use of resources this year is probably not to establish Olt in the majors as a part-time player. Nor is it to move good defenders down the defensive spectrum to positions where their bats don't play.
 
Shady, honestly I think the way the Pirates performed in the first half of the past 2 seasons was a facade. The cards were falling right but over a 162 game season, they're not a playoff contender yet. Their future rides on 2 young pitchers who will be up in 2014
I think they are certainly a contender. They clearly think they are, given the moves they have made.
Teams in the NL who currently have more talent than the Pirates -- Nationals, Braves, Phils, Cards, Reds, Brewers, Giants, Dodgers, Dbacks. As I said before, what exactly are they competing for?
My first thought is, the playoffs.
No ####. The Astros are also competing for the playoffs. My original point is that it was a good idea to trade Hanrahan because they're not serious contenders this year. If they could get something decent in return, it's a good idea to move him. With that said, the jury is still out whether or not they got anything decent in return.
Do you think the Orioles were one of the 5 most talented teams in the AL last season? Before the season, would anyone have picked them to finish higher than 4th in their own division (and even that would have been optimistic)The trade of Hanrahan was a good idea because of his likely arbitration cost, the high volitility of relief pitching, and the Pirates' in house replacements.
 
Shady, honestly I think the way the Pirates performed in the first half of the past 2 seasons was a facade. The cards were falling right but over a 162 game season, they're not a playoff contender yet. Their future rides on 2 young pitchers who will be up in 2014
I think they are certainly a contender. They clearly think they are, given the moves they have made.
Teams in the NL who currently have more talent than the Pirates -- Nationals, Braves, Phils, Cards, Reds, Brewers, Giants, Dodgers, Dbacks. As I said before, what exactly are they competing for?
My first thought is, the playoffs.
No ####. The Astros are also competing for the playoffs. My original point is that it was a good idea to trade Hanrahan because they're not serious contenders this year. If they could get something decent in return, it's a good idea to move him. With that said, the jury is still out whether or not they got anything decent in return.
Do you think the Orioles were one of the 5 most talented teams in the AL last season? Before the season, would anyone have picked them to finish higher than 4th in their own division (and even that would have been optimistic)The trade of Hanrahan was a good idea because of his likely arbitration cost, the high volitility of relief pitching, and the Pirates' in house replacements.
Yup the Orioles were an exception. Over a 162 game season, I'll still put my money on talent.
 
Can't make a trade thinking about just 2013, must make trades thinking about the next 3...5...7 years.
You certainly can prioritize the needs of this season ahead of the future needs of the club, especially when you're in a championship window. Flags fly forever, just as the Jays paid significant future value for immediate help, so too could the Rangers. They're in a tough but winable division. Their best use of resources this year is probably not to establish Olt in the majors as a part-time player. Nor is it to move good defenders down the defensive spectrum to positions where their bats don't play.
I'd argue the Rangers have the talent to chase banners now and the prospects to reasonably expect to compete over the next 5-10 years too. Even if the team doesn't come together over the first few months and it looks like they're a piece or two short at the deadline they have all the ammo in the world to make a move to fill that gap identified at that time. Is that gap at CF? 1B? starter? We'll see how the season goes. Would be brutal to use the trade ammo to fix starter then end up with too many and have black holes at 1B and CF and need to gut the farm system to fix them to try to win now.Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make. Now.
 
Shady, honestly I think the way the Pirates performed in the first half of the past 2 seasons was a facade. The cards were falling right but over a 162 game season, they're not a playoff contender yet. Their future rides on 2 young pitchers who will be up in 2014
I think they are certainly a contender. They clearly think they are, given the moves they have made.
Teams in the NL who currently have more talent than the Pirates -- Nationals, Braves, Phils, Cards, Reds, Brewers, Giants, Dodgers, Dbacks. As I said before, what exactly are they competing for?
My first thought is, the playoffs.
No ####. The Astros are also competing for the playoffs. My original point is that it was a good idea to trade Hanrahan because they're not serious contenders this year. If they could get something decent in return, it's a good idea to move him. With that said, the jury is still out whether or not they got anything decent in return.
Please don't bring the Astros into this, the Pirates are further away from the Astros as they are the NL All Star team. I don't think the Pirates are a playoff team, but like last year they have made some low risk/low probability/high reward moves that if the stars align they could be in a spot to chase a playoff spot in September. Last season they stalled out, but they were close at the 3/4 pole. Giving up on 2013 before it even begins is a loser's mentality you don't want polluting your clubhouse.Unless you're the Astros.
 
Shady, honestly I think the way the Pirates performed in the first half of the past 2 seasons was a facade. The cards were falling right but over a 162 game season, they're not a playoff contender yet. Their future rides on 2 young pitchers who will be up in 2014
I think they are certainly a contender. They clearly think they are, given the moves they have made.
Teams in the NL who currently have more talent than the Pirates -- Nationals, Braves, Phils, Cards, Reds, Brewers, Giants, Dodgers, Dbacks. As I said before, what exactly are they competing for?
My first thought is, the playoffs.
No ####. The Astros are also competing for the playoffs. My original point is that it was a good idea to trade Hanrahan because they're not serious contenders this year. If they could get something decent in return, it's a good idea to move him. With that said, the jury is still out whether or not they got anything decent in return.
Please don't bring the Astros into this, the Pirates are further away from the Astros as they are the NL All Star team. I don't think the Pirates are a playoff team, but like last year they have made some low risk/low probability/high reward moves that if the stars align they could be in a spot to chase a playoff spot in September. Last season they stalled out, but they were close at the 3/4 pole. Giving up on 2013 before it even begins is a loser's mentality you don't want polluting your clubhouse.Unless you're the Astros.
Well the Pirates have 20 straight losing seasons so I'm pretty sure they've earned the right to have a loser's mentality :shrug: Whatever....I hope they're competitive for more than just 3/4th of a season this year. As I posted in the Pirates thread, I think they're close to being a .500 team given their talent. However, IMO all the stars would need to align for them to make the playoffs this year (sort of like what happened for the O's).
 
Can anyone in here tell me WTF the Rangers are doing? (besides nothing) I don't get the lack of moves.
Don't need to do anything, great organizational depth top to bottom and the major league core is intact. They have stayed in on everything, but haven't seemed interested unless the price is right...just hasn't been the right deal yet. Smart strategy imho.If they need to do something come March or July they have all of the ammo in the world to throw out there on the trade market. If they don't need to do anything then the rich get richer as their star prospects develop internally.
Can anyone in here tell me WTF the Rangers are doing? (besides nothing) I don't get the lack of moves.
Don't need to do anything, great organizational depth top to bottom and the major league core is intact. They have stayed in on everything, but haven't seemed interested unless the price is right...just hasn't been the right deal yet. Smart strategy imho.If they need to do something come March or July they have all of the ammo in the world to throw out there on the trade market. If they don't need to do anything then the rich get richer as their star prospects develop internally.
Except Olt is blocked by Beltre and he loses a ton of value if they move him off 3B. Plus, they have a logjam up the middle at 2b and SS.
Can't make a trade thinking about just 2013, must make trades thinking about the next 3...5...7 years. Yeah, Olt is most valuable at 3B, he'll probably be the guy there eventually, but in 2013 he is the plan B if he's on the team. Make him the left handed part of the platoon at 1B and give him some righties at DH, if he proves himself then give him more. The jogjam up the middle is much ado about nothing imho. If the organization thinks Jurk is ready (I think he is) there's 2 choices - move Elvis to CF or Kinsler to the Michael Young role. The former and Gentry/Martin don't get play, no big deal. The latter and Moreland is the sacrificial lamb, again, no big deal.I don't see the problem with any of the above. Yeah, to maximize Olt's value he plays at 3B but that doesn't mean the right move is to trade him low. If he is a better option than the LH bat at 1B and the RH bad at DH then play him there, pretty simple. When Beltre's days in Texas are done, re-evaluate, and if Olt still makes the most sense at 3B then shift him back.
Can't make a trade thinking about just 2013, must make trades thinking about the next 3...5...7 years.
You certainly can prioritize the needs of this season ahead of the future needs of the club, especially when you're in a championship window. Flags fly forever, just as the Jays paid significant future value for immediate help, so too could the Rangers. They're in a tough but winable division. Their best use of resources this year is probably not to establish Olt in the majors as a part-time player. Nor is it to move good defenders down the defensive spectrum to positions where their bats don't play.
I'd argue the Rangers have the talent to chase banners now and the prospects to reasonably expect to compete over the next 5-10 years too. Even if the team doesn't come together over the first few months and it looks like they're a piece or two short at the deadline they have all the ammo in the world to make a move to fill that gap identified at that time. Is that gap at CF? 1B? starter? We'll see how the season goes. Would be brutal to use the trade ammo to fix starter then end up with too many and have black holes at 1B and CF and need to gut the farm system to fix them to try to win now.Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make. Now.
:goodposting: :goodposting: :goodposting: :goodposting: Well said by MAC.
 
Why is Loshe still out there, and what are the chances he signs with TEX?
Probably his agent is why he is still out there...nothing would make me happier if he re-signs with the Cards but I think his asking price is too high with the young group of talented pitchers the Cards are building with. I think the kid has immense talent and last year was just the tip of the iceberg - but many think that last year was just an anomaly. Time will tell.
 
Seems inevitable that Texas will sign Bourn on the (relatively) cheap, no?
Why is Loshe still out there, and what are the chances he signs with TEX?
Along with LaRoche and Soriano, the losing of a 1st round pick for many teams maybe a stumbling block. The Indians (Swisher) only lost a 2nd due to being top 10 but the rules changes put picks 11-15 in jeopardy. BJ Upton and Hamilton are the only comp free agents to sign.
 
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Mike Adams reportedly signs with the Phil's for 3/18m.

My link
A lot of people say "Moneyball only works for so long, then other teams figure out what you're doing." Well, not all teams. Yuck.
It's 2/12 with a vesting option, FWIW, and the requirements are not gimmes.
Adams' deal includes a club option for 2015 that would become guaranteed at $6 million if he has 65 games pitched in 2014. His 2015 salary would become guaranteed at $6.5 million if he has 120 games pitched in 2013 and 2014 combined, with at least 60 in 2014.
Phillies' bullpen completely killed them last year. I realize that bullpen pitchers are highly variable, but it seems like it is worth the risk.
Even if he stays healthy, I still don't think that's a great move. He's average. :shrug:
Are you only looking at his 2012 season?Because he has pretty damn awesome otherwise.
Sure, but looking at a guy in his mid 30's it's not unreasonable to think his stuff may be slipping. His 4 seam dropped by nearly 1.5 mph last season. Fewer swings at his pitches and a higher contact rate as well. It's entirely possible it was just a one year fluke. Or he is regressing but not quite as quickly as last year indicated. But it does appear he's lost what made him good and he's going to be just an arm. I wouldn't be thrilled with the signing were I a Phillies fan as I don't think it's going to address their bullpen need.
Also looked like a pitcher who moved from Petco to Arlington.
This. He leaves a lot of balls up and to me went from an elite reliever to just a good one.
Well the hope is that he gets back from his injury and returns to form. Sure some of the numbers look a little bad but his BB/9 rate was lower than his '10 season numbers. Looking at his pitch trax, his leaving the fastball up seemed to be a new development last year so perhaps it was a result of his injury, but in an unexpected twist, his ground ball rate actually went up. That is one thing Phillies execs actually hope stays up b/c the Bank can see long flies go out. The two biggest concerns are that his swing rate on pitches outside the zone dropped so that might be a combo of the fastball losing some velocity but his secondary pitches might have also been affected a bit. But his BABIP was also abnormally high at 327 so if that drops, his numbers should improve. I disagree that the Phillies made a huge mistake and apparently the Nats were willing to pay more for a closer role but he wanted to be a setup man. :confused: The biggest reason why this might be any type of mistake was opportunity cost. For a team trying to operate on a budget, $6 million could be the difference between Cody Ross/Pagan or Scott Hairston and Vernon Wells. And while Phillies fans hated their bullpen last year, they actually weren't that bad, especially once they got rid of Qualls. So I don't think Adams is a terrible move in itself but would the Phillies be a better team with no added relievers (or a cheaper one) and Cody Ross or Scott Hairston/Adams?
As a Padre fan I can tell you that their pitching coach is a master at getting the most out of players. I dont think it is a coincidence that both Adams and Heath Bell became great relievers when they got to San Diego. Both regressed significantly after leaving. They arent the only examples.
 
Why is Loshe still out there, and what are the chances he signs with TEX?
Probably his agent is why he is still out there...nothing would make me happier if he re-signs with the Cards but I think his asking price is too high with the young group of talented pitchers the Cards are building with. I think the kid has immense talent and last year was just the tip of the iceberg - but many think that last year was just an anomaly. Time will tell.
kid? tip of the iceberg? you do realize that he's been in the big leagues for 12 years?
 
Ugueth Urbina has been released from prison after serving 7 of his 14 year sentence for attempted murder. He is 39 and looking to return to MLB. Rumor is he's managed to hit 90 mph recently.

:popcorn:

 
'SoCalBroncoFan said:
As a Padre fan I can tell you that their pitching coach is a master at getting the most out of players. I dont think it is a coincidence that both Adams and Heath Bell became great relievers when they got to San Diego. Both regressed significantly after leaving. They arent the only examples.
is his name Mr. Petco?
 
MLB Network at midnight: A history of perfect games thrown in the Major Leagues.

Looking forward to some sweet Len Barker and Jim Joyce highlights.

 
This is pretty awesome. I'm keeping this on the DVR for awhile.

It's showing again tomorrow at 1pm and Thursday for those who missed it.

 

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