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My thoughts (guess) is I still think this is a TS that recurves out to sea. While some of the more reliable models have some chances of it hitting the OBX, I still think this stays well off shore. Maybe it becomes a Cat 1, but this will be way more fun guessing than actually forecasting in a couple of days.
I think we'll hit TD soon and TS within a day or so. Not sure it'll be much more than that but still feel pretty confident about no US landfall. Guessing more info from NHC soon.
Saw an article yesterday talking about these two storms and how they could encounter the Fujiwhara Effect, which is when the two storms get close enough to start to rotate around each other. Pretty crazy. Would hate to be on a ship out that way.
Not talking about circulation, only about how it has begun to intensify in storm activity and getting a cluster of storms together versus where it was earlier today. The circulation will come soon. in fact it appears to be starting.
Right now it's a "who the hell knows" situation. When I posted that several of the models had shifted to Florida landfall (models run on 6 hour intervals and 6z might be fed different data than 12z causing changes). A forecaster I follow has been trumpeting out to sea and he's sticking by it. Euro model is out to sea (guy hugs that one). GFS is way closer to land. Official NHC has shifted west but is still relatively far off the coast. Now, several models see a stall coming. That seems to do 2 things. Has it go further west and possibly weaken as it's able to pull in cooler water from beneath the surface. Posted the "buckle up" because it seems like this one is being ignored because it hadn't organized well and they kept saying it was no threat to land. Now to me the chance of it getting near or making landfall in Florida is a little higher.
It was a joke. I read about it on Jeff Masters blog (guessing you did as well
). I would put it in the "not worried" compartment. Assuming it will be over land before having a chance to organize. I see what he means about the GFS and the wave coming off Africa. That one could get big. Now fix your f'n mower!!
I don't think it'll be over land by the time it develops. I think it has a good chance of becoming something just before it crashes into Texas.It was a joke. I read about it on Jeff Masters blog (guessing you did as well
My understanding is that it is not actually fully moving west yet. This is the cold front draped over the GOM. If you look at the satellite, pieces are coming off of the front and moving west, but the actual low would end up developing south of LA or a little more west. Again, I'm not saying this will happen. But this is the thought process of something happening.
This one?TheIronSheik said:
GFS sure seems to think it will be something. By late Friday it's already a storm. This is a Sunday screenshot. http://i.imgur.com/j4fSE8D.jpg3C said:
Obviously no idea where it ends up or how strong it will be but for it to blow up that quick is troubling.
I haven't visited this thread in a long while. Imagine my surprise then to drop back in and find you all speaking a foreign language.TheIronSheik said:
Hope so. It looks to my untrained eye that it will become a major storm. Check out that video though. Could be a setup for funneling systems west.
Interesting. Could make for a fun couple of months.
In a nutshell (and my interpretation based on what I remember): Oct 2012 weather over the Atlantic was similar to now. Rafael came and turned up north. That set up a ridge and building of low pressure in the Caribbean. Sandy formed and the rest is history. He's not saying we'll have a Sandy situation but does see long range models (>5 days) showing a ridge. Trade winds will be more "normal" with a westerly flow. Says to watch for stuff forming in the Caribbean and/or Gulf.
Not the wrong thread.
I was talking about all of the systems in the tropics.
Not the wrong thread.
You'll notice the area in the Gulf has now become Invest 98L. This could bring a lot of much needed rain to Texas. One thing about storms like this is once they make landfall, they're usually caught up in the jet stream and move back east. This can mean very heavy rains and flooding (queue Stevie Ray Vaughn) in Texas.
97L is still "dead", but it looks like that should change in the next 24 hours. Looks like the Hurricane Hunters have a flight scheduled to check the area tomorrow morning. Pretty crazy for a system that doesn't exist.
What will eventually become 99L should move off of Africa soon and still looks to be a beast. Although, models still have this recurving almost immediately. But, as we learned with Cristobal, models aren't all that reliable when they are modeling a system that hasn't formed yet.
Today should be an interesting day.
(until that wave comes off Africa)
