*** Official 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread *** / Now 2015 too (1 Viewer)

[TheIronSheik]

That new one coming off Africa soon they already have at 50% in 5 days.

GFS thinks it's gonna be big by Wednesday. It (to my untrained eye) is south of the dry air.

That one off of FL/GA never developed circulation, but boy is it packing a punch with rain. The OBX is looking like it's going to get hammered with rainfall.

I saw that one coming off Africa, and I already see the NHC is at 30/60% for the 48hr/5d chances. But I'm skeptical. Each one of these waves coming off of Africa have all been thought to be huge. Models are going nuts with this system, saying it's going to be huge! But the problem I see is that it's still got to get through the shear and dry air that all of the other "monster" waves had to contend with. I'm hoping I'm wrong, but I don't think this develops either. Unless it holds together enough to get closer to the Caribbean like Dolly eventually did.

 

[3C's]

That new one coming off Africa soon they already have at 50% in 5 days.

GFS thinks it's gonna be big by Wednesday. It (to my untrained eye) is south of the dry air.

That one off of FL/GA never developed circulation, but boy is it packing a punch with rain. The OBX is looking like it's going to get hammered with rainfall.

I saw that one coming off Africa, and I already see the NHC is at 30/60% for the 48hr/5d chances. But I'm skeptical. Each one of these waves coming off of Africa have all been thought to be huge. Models are going nuts with this system, saying it's going to be huge! But the problem I see is that it's still got to get through the shear and dry air that all of the other "monster" waves had to contend with. I'm hoping I'm wrong, but I don't think this develops either. Unless it holds together enough to get closer to the Caribbean like Dolly eventually did.

We're getting some good rain for sure. We should be pretty rainy until it gets pushed off coast.

Not a ton of shear to deal with and it came out much further south. NHC thinks it will turn more north than the models seem to. If it stays on a more westward path it will miss a lot of the dry air. If it goes more north it will run right into that dry air. Guess we'll see. Almost all the GFS runs in the ensemble have it turning north before getting close to the US anyway. Some already calling it a fish storm.

And I'm not giving up on 90L yet, dammit! Looked pretty much dead last night but more storms popping up today.

 

[TheIronSheik]

That new one coming off Africa soon they already have at 50% in 5 days.

GFS thinks it's gonna be big by Wednesday. It (to my untrained eye) is south of the dry air.

That one off of FL/GA never developed circulation, but boy is it packing a punch with rain. The OBX is looking like it's going to get hammered with rainfall.

I saw that one coming off Africa, and I already see the NHC is at 30/60% for the 48hr/5d chances. But I'm skeptical. Each one of these waves coming off of Africa have all been thought to be huge. Models are going nuts with this system, saying it's going to be huge! But the problem I see is that it's still got to get through the shear and dry air that all of the other "monster" waves had to contend with. I'm hoping I'm wrong, but I don't think this develops either. Unless it holds together enough to get closer to the Caribbean like Dolly eventually did.

We're getting some good rain for sure. We should be pretty rainy until it gets pushed off coast.

Not a ton of shear to deal with and it came out much further south. NHC thinks it will turn more north than the models seem to. If it stays on a more westward path it will miss a lot of the dry air. If it goes more north it will run right into that dry air. Guess we'll see. Almost all the GFS runs in the ensemble have it turning north before getting close to the US anyway. Some already calling it a fish storm.

And I'm not giving up on 90L yet, dammit! Looked pretty much dead last night but more storms popping up today.

I saw that. Seems to be the trend this year. If it can just survive enough to get across the Atlantic, it's the old Lloyd Christmas saying: So you're saying there's a chance.

 

[TheIronSheik]

I see a couple of the models trying to develop something off the coast of FL early this week. Not saying it will happen, but that area is definitely perfect for development if anything wanted to try and get going.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Euro has 91L blowing up to a huge storm long range. GFS has it a little less, but still fairly big.

This could be the last hurrah for African waves. Starting to move into the time of the year where African waves don't make it over to the US.

 

[3C's]

Euro has 91L blowing up to a huge storm long range. GFS has it a little less, but still fairly big.

This could be the last hurrah for African waves. Starting to move into the time of the year where African waves don't make it over to the US.

Been saying that...but GFS turns it north before getting near the US.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Euro has 91L blowing up to a huge storm long range. GFS has it a little less, but still fairly big.

This could be the last hurrah for African waves. Starting to move into the time of the year where African waves don't make it over to the US.

Been saying that...but GFS turns it north before getting near the US.

I still don't believe it.

 

[3C's]

Euro has 91L blowing up to a huge storm long range. GFS has it a little less, but still fairly big.

This could be the last hurrah for African waves. Starting to move into the time of the year where African waves don't make it over to the US.

Been saying that...but GFS turns it north before getting near the US.

I still don't believe it.

Which one? That it will blow up? Or that it will turn north? I'm not convinced it will turn north.

I realize these could be mutually exclusive but these headlines kind of contradict each other:

African Tropical Waves 90L and 91L Pose Little Threat

African Wave 91L Worth Watching

 

[TheIronSheik]

Euro has 91L blowing up to a huge storm long range. GFS has it a little less, but still fairly big.

This could be the last hurrah for African waves. Starting to move into the time of the year where African waves don't make it over to the US.

Been saying that...but GFS turns it north before getting near the US.

I still don't believe it.

Which one? That it will blow up? Or that it will turn north? I'm not convinced it will turn north.

I realize these could be mutually exclusive but these headlines kind of contradict each other:

African Tropical Waves 90L and 91L Pose Little Threat

African Wave 91L Worth Watching

I was just reporting the model runs. I didn't say I believed them. The bottom portion was just stating that if 91L doesn't make it across the Atlantic, that might be it for the season.

My thought is still that 91L has trouble developing. If it does develop, I think it recurves out to sea.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Bumped up to a 70% chance. Which is funny because when I saw it this morning, I was sure they were going to lower the chances.

I'm still not sure what they see in this system. Maybe someone at the NHC is named Eduardo? Either way, this thing has zero chance of getting anywhere near the US. Talk about a slow year.

 

[TheIronSheik]

I see a couple of the models trying to develop something off the coast of FL early this week. Not saying it will happen, but that area is definitely perfect for development if anything wanted to try and get going.

Still hanging out there. This is a good area for development this time of year. No Low Level Circulation, so I think that's why the NHC is ignoring it for now. But something to keep an eye on since the conditions are very favorable.

 

[TheIronSheik]

I see a couple of the models trying to develop something off the coast of FL early this week. Not saying it will happen, but that area is definitely perfect for development if anything wanted to try and get going.

And the NHC is finally on board with this one. Might not be a big deal before it crosses FL, but if it gets into the GOM, could get ugly quick. That's a HUGE "if" though.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Bumped up to a 70% chance. Which is funny because when I saw it this morning, I was sure they were going to lower the chances.

I'm still not sure what they see in this system. Maybe someone at the NHC is named Eduardo? Either way, this thing has zero chance of getting anywhere near the US. Talk about a slow year.

I'm still not completely sold on 91L, but it seems to be surviving pretty well. No changes from the NHC. Still at 30/70%. I think the next 48 hours are going to be key. One thing worth pointing out about 91L is that almost all of the models that have been saying it's going to be something, all predicted that it should have already been something by now. Not sure if that means anything, but worth noting.

 

[TheIronSheik]

I see a couple of the models trying to develop something off the coast of FL early this week. Not saying it will happen, but that area is definitely perfect for development if anything wanted to try and get going.

And the NHC is finally on board with this one. Might not be a big deal before it crosses FL, but if it gets into the GOM, could get ugly quick. That's a HUGE "if" though.

Looks like this won't have time to form before it crosses FL. And once in the GOM, it looks like a front will push it back east. So I'd say no chance for this one. BUT...

If you live in FL, this thing could bring very heavy rain to you once it starts to move.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Bumped up to a 70% chance. Which is funny because when I saw it this morning, I was sure they were going to lower the chances.

I'm still not sure what they see in this system. Maybe someone at the NHC is named Eduardo? Either way, this thing has zero chance of getting anywhere near the US. Talk about a slow year.

I'm still not completely sold on 91L, but it seems to be surviving pretty well. No changes from the NHC. Still at 30/70%. I think the next 48 hours are going to be key. One thing worth pointing out about 91L is that almost all of the models that have been saying it's going to be something, all predicted that it should have already been something by now. Not sure if that means anything, but worth noting.

The NHC is still betting on 30/70%. Yet as of this morning it's still looking pretty unremarkable. Again, I thought they were going to lower the chances, but what do I know? It just looks more, to me, that the wave is looking less impressive rather than more impressive. I guess the NHC is really feeling confident with the long range models here.

 

[TheIronSheik]

"Nevermind the one out there now. Look at the next one coming off of Africa!"



Seems to be a theme this season. Possible wave coming off of Africa and the models are picking it up to be a doozy that makes it all the way across the Atlantic. Not sure why I wouldn't believe that considering how well the models have been forecasting these waves so far.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Ladies and gentlemen, may I introduce you to Invest 92L.

This little guy is like the little train that could. Nothing but skepticism all week about how the upper level low would never let it form. Even as of this morning, it was not taken too seriously. But look at this thing starting to wrap up. Models have been all over the place with this thing.

But Florida residents should be watching this thing. And I mean ALL Florida residents. A couple of the tracks have this thing crossing over south FL into the GOM where it blows up into a huge storm and then turns back to the NE and hits the taint of FL. Still way to early to know how this plays out, but the conditions off of both sides of FL are very favorable for rapid development.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Ladies and gentlemen, may I introduce you to Invest 92L.

This little guy is like the little train that could. Nothing but skepticism all week about how the upper level low would never let it form. Even as of this morning, it was not taken too seriously. But look at this thing starting to wrap up. Models have been all over the place with this thing.

But Florida residents should be watching this thing. And I mean ALL Florida residents. A couple of the tracks have this thing crossing over south FL into the GOM where it blows up into a huge storm and then turns back to the NE and hits the taint of FL. Still way to early to know how this plays out, but the conditions off of both sides of FL are very favorable for rapid development.

Here's another good shot of 92L. Keep in mind, this morning this thing was just an area of clouds and thunderstorms. Now it's starting to wrap up with definite circulation forming. The Upper Level Low has drifted east and the last I saw this thing was sitting with pressure at 1012.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Here's a really nice loop of 92L going from nothing to something.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Next scheduled update is at 8pm, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a 5pm one come out with TD6 off the coast of FL.

 

[TheIronSheik]

This thing just keeps getting more impressive looking by the minute. This is going to be tricky for the NHC because if they decide to up this thing, the moment they do they will need to issue Watches and Warnings. There will be very little advanced warning with this system.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Oddly, 92L is forming in the same place this little gal did.

 

[3C's]

Bumped up to a 70% chance. Which is funny because when I saw it this morning, I was sure they were going to lower the chances.

I'm still not sure what they see in this system. Maybe someone at the NHC is named Eduardo? Either way, this thing has zero chance of getting anywhere near the US. Talk about a slow year.

I'm still not completely sold on 91L, but it seems to be surviving pretty well. No changes from the NHC. Still at 30/70%. I think the next 48 hours are going to be key. One thing worth pointing out about 91L is that almost all of the models that have been saying it's going to be something, all predicted that it should have already been something by now. Not sure if that means anything, but worth noting.

The NHC is still betting on 30/70%. Yet as of this morning it's still looking pretty unremarkable. Again, I thought they were going to lower the chances, but what do I know? It just looks more, to me, that the wave is looking less impressive rather than more impressive. I guess the NHC is really feeling confident with the long range models here.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/91L_intensity_latest.png

 

[TheIronSheik]

Bumped up to a 70% chance. Which is funny because when I saw it this morning, I was sure they were going to lower the chances.

I'm still not sure what they see in this system. Maybe someone at the NHC is named Eduardo? Either way, this thing has zero chance of getting anywhere near the US. Talk about a slow year.

I'm still not completely sold on 91L, but it seems to be surviving pretty well. No changes from the NHC. Still at 30/70%. I think the next 48 hours are going to be key. One thing worth pointing out about 91L is that almost all of the models that have been saying it's going to be something, all predicted that it should have already been something by now. Not sure if that means anything, but worth noting.

The NHC is still betting on 30/70%. Yet as of this morning it's still looking pretty unremarkable. Again, I thought they were going to lower the chances, but what do I know? It just looks more, to me, that the wave is looking less impressive rather than more impressive. I guess the NHC is really feeling confident with the long range models here.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/91L_intensity_latest.png

Yeah. I've seen that. Color me :meh: Looks like all the models are starting to recurve it now pretty quickly. Even if it does develop, which I'm still not sold on, I wonder how long it would hold together?

 

[3C's]

Bumped up to a 70% chance. Which is funny because when I saw it this morning, I was sure they were going to lower the chances.

I'm still not sure what they see in this system. Maybe someone at the NHC is named Eduardo? Either way, this thing has zero chance of getting anywhere near the US. Talk about a slow year.

I'm still not completely sold on 91L, but it seems to be surviving pretty well. No changes from the NHC. Still at 30/70%. I think the next 48 hours are going to be key. One thing worth pointing out about 91L is that almost all of the models that have been saying it's going to be something, all predicted that it should have already been something by now. Not sure if that means anything, but worth noting.

The NHC is still betting on 30/70%. Yet as of this morning it's still looking pretty unremarkable. Again, I thought they were going to lower the chances, but what do I know? It just looks more, to me, that the wave is looking less impressive rather than more impressive. I guess the NHC is really feeling confident with the long range models here.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/91L_intensity_latest.png

Yeah. I've seen that. Color me :meh: Looks like all the models are starting to recurve it now pretty quickly. Even if it does develop, which I'm still not sold on, I wonder how long it would hold together?

Well, if the models are to be believed, it will strengthen but that's days down the line and by the time it does it's turning north and northeast. Bermuda about the only place of worry.

Looks like 92L will strengthen after it crosses FL and then turns back towards NW FL. If models are to be believed.

 

[3C's]

Bumped up to a 70% chance. Which is funny because when I saw it this morning, I was sure they were going to lower the chances.

I'm still not sure what they see in this system. Maybe someone at the NHC is named Eduardo? Either way, this thing has zero chance of getting anywhere near the US. Talk about a slow year.

I'm still not completely sold on 91L, but it seems to be surviving pretty well. No changes from the NHC. Still at 30/70%. I think the next 48 hours are going to be key. One thing worth pointing out about 91L is that almost all of the models that have been saying it's going to be something, all predicted that it should have already been something by now. Not sure if that means anything, but worth noting.

The NHC is still betting on 30/70%. Yet as of this morning it's still looking pretty unremarkable. Again, I thought they were going to lower the chances, but what do I know? It just looks more, to me, that the wave is looking less impressive rather than more impressive. I guess the NHC is really feeling confident with the long range models here.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/91L_intensity_latest.png

Yeah. I've seen that. Color me :meh: Looks like all the models are starting to recurve it now pretty quickly. Even if it does develop, which I'm still not sold on, I wonder how long it would hold together?

Well, if the models are to be believed, it will strengthen but that's days down the line and by the time it does it's turning north and northeast. Bermuda about the only place of worry.

Looks like 92L will strengthen after it crosses FL and then turns back towards NW FL. If models are to be believed.

Or maybe not "days down the line" since NHC says it could make TD today. Still expected to be way out to sea.

Models all over the place with 92.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Crazy. I left work yesterday thinking I might see 92L turn into a TD. Then I get into work today to find that 92L is dying. Talk about a rough night. All of the convection that was blossoming before sunset just collapsed on itself. As the sun went down, the convection died and the Low Level Circulation begin to fall apart. As of 8 am today, the Hurricane Hunters cancelled their flight out to even go check it out.

Looks like convection has started already today on it, but it's quickly running out of real estate. Something crazy would have to happen today. That said, something crazy did happen yesterday with it. So. There's that.

This should cross FL with some pretty hefty rain totals, since it is still tropical moisture. Then the next guessing game happens. The GOM, currently, is somewhat favorable for development. But 92L will need time, much like it did yesterday. Models have been having 92L cross over FL into the GOM and quickly get picked up by a cold front coming off the Texas coast and into the Gulf. This would send 92L back into the NE gulf coast of FL. But now models are starting to think that the cold front will stall off the coast of Texas. (This is why models are all over the place.) If this happens, there will be minimal wind shear, very high Sea Surface Temperatures and no steering mechanism. This would be best case for development. Or worst case if you live on the Gulf Coast.

As for 91L, it looks like it managed to survive the dry air after all. Looks like I was wrong about this one. I guess this is why I'm not employed by the NHC. But even though the NHC is still saying this is imminent for development, the recurve should happen almost immediately and then it will be swept out to sea.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Here it comes.

Special Message from NHC Issued 11 Sep 2014 14:08 UTC NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Depression Six in the eastern Atlantic at 11 a.m.

 

[3C's]

And TD6 is born. Some are already skipping ahead to TS Edouard.

 

[TheIronSheik]

And TD6 is born. Some are already skipping ahead to TS Edouard.

It may become a TS by tonight, but it's going to struggle to become a hurricane. Looks like the thought now is if it does, it would barely be a Cat 1.

92L's convection is firing up nicely today. And some models have slowed it's westward movement down to almost stationary for the next 24 hours. This is still the one to watch over the next week.

 

[TheIronSheik]

I know I said it yesterday and ended up being wrong, but I think 92L is looking like it's almost a TD. I think there's a good chance this becomes TD7 by the end of the day. :kissofdeath:

 

[TheIronSheik]

Looks like 92L is being bumped up to 30/30%. I'm still a little surprised it's that low. Not that I think it should be incredibly high, but I thought they might put a 40 or 50% on it in the next 48 hours. After yesterday, they probably want to see how it hold up after the sun goes down, though.

 

[3C's]

It will develop...once it's west of Florida.

 

[TheIronSheik]

It will develop...once it's west of Florida.

I think before that, GB. Convection is going crazy right now.

 

[3C's]

It will develop...once it's west of Florida.

I think before that, GB. Convection is going crazy right now.

It'll die down tonight. You have my ironclad guarantee.

Now, I'm gonna need you to do your kiss of death in early October when I go with friends down to OBX.

 

[TheIronSheik]

It will develop...once it's west of Florida.

I think before that, GB. Convection is going crazy right now.

It'll die down tonight. You have my ironclad guarantee.

Now, I'm gonna need you to do your kiss of death in early October when I go with friends down to OBX.

I'm going all in on this becoming AT LEAST a TD before it crosses FL. Maybe even by the 11pm tonight.

 

[TheIronSheik]

It will develop...once it's west of Florida.

I think before that, GB. Convection is going crazy right now.

It'll die down tonight. You have my ironclad guarantee.

Now, I'm gonna need you to do your kiss of death in early October when I go with friends down to OBX.

I'm going all in on this becoming AT LEAST a TD before it crosses FL. Maybe even by the 11pm tonight.

Awesome. No sooner did I post that, did the thing start going down hill again.

 

[3C's]

It will develop...once it's west of Florida.

I think before that, GB. Convection is going crazy right now.

It'll die down tonight. You have my ironclad guarantee.

Now, I'm gonna need you to do your kiss of death in early October when I go with friends down to OBX.

I'm going all in on this becoming AT LEAST a TD before it crosses FL. Maybe even by the 11pm tonight.

Awesome. No sooner did I post that, did the thing start going down hill again.

Well, I did ironclad guarantee it. That rarely happens. S FL definitely getting some rain though.

 

[3C's]

And TD6 is born. Some are already skipping ahead to TS Edouard.

TS now. Hopefully they're all right about the turn.

Saw a mass of storms SE of it yesterday and wondered if it was something. Big yellow X now.

 

[TheIronSheik]

And TD6 is born. Some are already skipping ahead to TS Edouard.

TS now. Hopefully they're all right about the turn.

Saw a mass of storms SE of it yesterday and wondered if it was something. Big yellow X now.

Yup. I saw that too. I haven't heard much on it other than that it was mentioned a couple of times in models I saw of Eduoard. Probably too late in the season to start back there and make it to the US. But worth watching. I'm still thinking Edouard has trouble making hurricane status, or just barely becomes one.

 

[TheIronSheik]

It will develop...once it's west of Florida.

I think before that, GB. Convection is going crazy right now.

It'll die down tonight. You have my ironclad guarantee.

Now, I'm gonna need you to do your kiss of death in early October when I go with friends down to OBX.

I'm going all in on this becoming AT LEAST a TD before it crosses FL. Maybe even by the 11pm tonight.

Awesome. No sooner did I post that, did the thing start going down hill again.

Well, I did ironclad guarantee it. That rarely happens. S FL definitely getting some rain though.

This "storm" is starting to piss me off. Blew up in unfavorable conditions, then died down when conditions got better. Twice. But I'm not giving up on it yet. I'm still thinking this could become something, not sure major, but definitely more than minor, in the GOM. I think it's going to happen. #WhyIStayed

 

[TheIronSheik]

And TD6 is born. Some are already skipping ahead to TS Edouard.

TS now. Hopefully they're all right about the turn.

Saw a mass of storms SE of it yesterday and wondered if it was something. Big yellow X now.

Yup. I saw that too. I haven't heard much on it other than that it was mentioned a couple of times in models I saw of Eduoard. Probably too late in the season to start back there and make it to the US. But worth watching. I'm still thinking Edouard has trouble making hurricane status, or just barely becomes one.

Looks like they've called that Invest 93L. Although I'm only seeing it on a couple web pages.

 

[3C's]

It will develop...once it's west of Florida.

I think before that, GB. Convection is going crazy right now.

It'll die down tonight. You have my ironclad guarantee.

Now, I'm gonna need you to do your kiss of death in early October when I go with friends down to OBX.

I'm going all in on this becoming AT LEAST a TD before it crosses FL. Maybe even by the 11pm tonight.

Awesome. No sooner did I post that, did the thing start going down hill again.

Well, I did ironclad guarantee it. That rarely happens. S FL definitely getting some rain though.

This "storm" is starting to piss me off. Blew up in unfavorable conditions, then died down when conditions got better. Twice. But I'm not giving up on it yet. I'm still thinking this could become something, not sure major, but definitely more than minor, in the GOM. I think it's going to happen. #WhyIStayed

Yeah, I've been thinking once it crosses FL it will pick up. Nice and warm in the Gulf. Question is which way it goes. Texas, back to Florida or somewhere in between.

 

[3C's]

Blowing back up. http://icons.wxug.com/data/storm_radar/at201492_radar.gif

 

[TheIronSheik]

Yeah, I've been thinking once it crosses FL it will pick up. Nice and warm in the Gulf. Question is which way it goes. Texas, back to Florida or somewhere in between.

That's the big question. Models seem to be thinking anywhere from Mexico to FL.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Yeah, I've been thinking once it crosses FL it will pick up. Nice and warm in the Gulf. Question is which way it goes. Texas, back to Florida or somewhere in between.

That's the big question. Models seem to be thinking anywhere from Mexico to FL.

Latest run of the models seem to favor one of two places. S TX or a recurve up around LA. Amazingly, the intensity of the models only shows a strong TS or a weak Cat 1. I think that shear is the main reason for the low intensity predictions.

Once/if it develops, I think we'll start to see better models.

 

[Treynwreck3]

Yeah, I've been thinking once it crosses FL it will pick up. Nice and warm in the Gulf. Question is which way it goes. Texas, back to Florida or somewhere in between.

That's the big question. Models seem to be thinking anywhere from Mexico to FL.

SoTex needs the rain. I'd like to see it come in between Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Then track due north and fill up Amistad again.

 

[3C's]

Gfs says Texas. It's the trusted model at nhc.

 

[TheIronSheik]

Gfs says Texas. It's the trusted model at nhc.

Actually, GFS is starting to lean towards LA.

Link

A second possible outcome is that this system tracks westward out over the Gulf of Mexico, develops into a strong tropical storm, and recurves just off the coast of the Gulf States. This is the outcome that a number of European and GFS ensemble members, along with 00Z Canadian operational model favors.

 

[TheIronSheik]

92L still maintaining LLC over land. You can see the center just south of Lake Okeechobee.