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*** Official 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread *** / Now 2015 too (1 Viewer)

Remember, it says a "number of ensemble members". That's not the mean track. Certainly can be the case though. My thought has been a turn north or northeast.

 
Look at that comma forming again. And over land, no less! Looks like the center of circulation should be off of FL by about 4 or 5 pm. Going to get interesting really quick.

 
3C's - Did you notice that the model runs for 93L are staying nicely to the south? I know they are saying none of the major models are calling for it to form, but it's interesting they're saying that if they think it stays low. I haven't seen the shear forecasts, but supposedly the area around and in front of it are fairly moist, unlike every other wave this year. Could be interesting to watch in the long range.

 
TheIronSheik said:
3C's - Did you notice that the model runs for 93L are staying nicely to the south? I know they are saying none of the major models are calling for it to form, but it's interesting they're saying that if they think it stays low. I haven't seen the shear forecasts, but supposedly the area around and in front of it are fairly moist, unlike every other wave this year. Could be interesting to watch in the long range.
Click to expand...
That's what I don't get. SAL isn't a problem. Shear doesn't look too bad. Water temp isn't too bad. :shrug: They're the experts though.

Eddie is down to 998MB. Getting there.

 
3C said:
TheIronSheik said:
3C's - Did you notice that the model runs for 93L are staying nicely to the south? I know they are saying none of the major models are calling for it to form, but it's interesting they're saying that if they think it stays low. I haven't seen the shear forecasts, but supposedly the area around and in front of it are fairly moist, unlike every other wave this year. Could be interesting to watch in the long range.
Click to expand...
That's what I don't get. SAL isn't a problem. Shear doesn't look too bad. Water temp isn't too bad. :shrug: They're the experts though.

Eddie is down to 998MB. Getting there.
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Oof, I take that back. Wind shear looks really bad just to the west at about 40W.

 
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Gawain said:
On the Pacific side, hope you've visited Cabo San Lucas.
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And to add to that, from a weather guy I follow:

** ALERT *** Hurricane ODILE Category 3 about to hit the tip of far southern BAJA

widespread ...major ,... possibly HISTORIC flooding is AGAIN likely for AZ NM southern NV by the end of the week.. significant rains into UT COL and eastern / southern CALIF
 
3C said:
Gawain said:
On the Pacific side, hope you've visited Cabo San Lucas.
Click to expand...
And to add to that, from a weather guy I follow:

** ALERT *** Hurricane ODILE Category 3 about to hit the tip of far southern BAJA

widespread ...major ,... possibly HISTORIC flooding is AGAIN likely for AZ NM southern NV by the end of the week.. significant rains into UT COL and eastern / southern CALIF
Click to expand...
Just getting light there, but I expect pictures to come in pretty quick and those pictures to not look good.

Not only was this a fairly strong storm, but it was also in a place that doesn't have much history with dealing with storms stronger than depressions.

 
Gawain said:
3C said:
Gawain said:
On the Pacific side, hope you've visited Cabo San Lucas.
Click to expand...
And to add to that, from a weather guy I follow:

** ALERT *** Hurricane ODILE Category 3 about to hit the tip of far southern BAJA

widespread ...major ,... possibly HISTORIC flooding is AGAIN likely for AZ NM southern NV by the end of the week.. significant rains into UT COL and eastern / southern CALIF
Click to expand...
Just getting light there, but I expect pictures to come in pretty quick and those pictures to not look good.

Not only was this a fairly strong storm, but it was also in a place that doesn't have much history with dealing with storms stronger than depressions.
Click to expand...
I believe I heard them say that it was the most powerful hurricane in recorded history to hit Baja California. Not sure if that's accurate or not, but I did read that on the Internet. And the interent is usually never wrong.

 
For the record, I called that 92L would be a TS and that Edouard would be a minimal hurricane, at best. NAILED IT!!

:bag:

 
Gawain said:
3C said:
Gawain said:
On the Pacific side, hope you've visited Cabo San Lucas.
Click to expand...
And to add to that, from a weather guy I follow:

** ALERT *** Hurricane ODILE Category 3 about to hit the tip of far southern BAJA

widespread ...major ,... possibly HISTORIC flooding is AGAIN likely for AZ NM southern NV by the end of the week.. significant rains into UT COL and eastern / southern CALIF
Click to expand...
Just getting light there, but I expect pictures to come in pretty quick and those pictures to not look good.

Not only was this a fairly strong storm, but it was also in a place that doesn't have much history with dealing with storms stronger than depressions.
Click to expand...
http://www.itravel-cabo.com/news/cabo%20news/hurricane%20odile%20cabo%20impacts%20locals%20hard

 
Historically speaking, we are still in the thick of Hurricane season. But it's not looking like there will be much out there this season.

Here are the hot spots for September formations.

And here are the spots that storms started from 9/21 to 9/30 since 1950.

For anything that would hit the US, the best bet would be something starting close to home, like the Caribbean or GOM. This holds true for October, as well. But while the average amount of named storms in September is 3, it drops to 2 for October. So the season is far from over, but realistically, chances for this season aren't looking good.

Currently, there is a wave coming off of Africa, but nothing major. And there is some activity in the Caribbean, but nothing that seems to be organizing.

 
At least for the New Orleans area, I've always considered August and September to be the most dangerous months of hurricane season by far. Storms that have come ashore locally in other "hurricane season" months have always been low-wind rainmakers at worst.

A fair number of people from other parts of the country who come to live here are mildly surprised that the onset of "hurricane season" doesn't mean "monthly hurricanes & intermittent flooding for six months straight".

 
Doug B said:
At least for the New Orleans area, I've always considered August and September to be the most dangerous months of hurricane season by far. Storms that have come ashore locally in other "hurricane season" months have always been low-wind rainmakers at worst.

A fair number of people from other parts of the country who come to live here are mildly surprised that the onset of "hurricane season" doesn't mean "monthly hurricanes & intermittent flooding for six months straight".
Click to expand...
Generally, even though hurricane season starts June 1st, the first two months are usually relatively quiet. It's when the waters get warm that things really pick up.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Historically speaking, we are still in the thick of Hurricane season. But it's not looking like there will be much out there this season.
Click to expand...
The 25th anniversary of Hugo is this weekend.

 
Mjolnirs said:
TheIronSheik said:
Historically speaking, we are still in the thick of Hurricane season. But it's not looking like there will be much out there this season.
Click to expand...
The 25th anniversary of Hugo is this weekend.
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I remember I went to the Isle of Palms a couple of years after Hugo for vacation. Played a round of golf and got paired up with a ranger who worked at the course. He was telling us about all of the trees that the course lost. Something like 70% of the trees. There were a couple of holes where the cart path would wind down the side of the fairway. He said, "That cart path used to wind around the trees that lined this hole." There may have been two trees left on that hole. Crazy how devastating that storm was.

 
Damn, I was going to post this this morning but got caught up doing work. Stupid work. :hot:

Anyway, I was going to say to keep an eye off of NC over the next couple of days. There is something there that could form.

Well, the NHC with their 2pm update highlighted the area and gave it a 10/20% chance of development. It looks like the conditions are good for development, but time is not on its side.

 
Looking at the long range models (just for fun), both the Euro and the GFS are showing something in the GOM in 10 days. The GFS has been ridiculously bad this year. But the Euro has been OK and normally errs on the side of caution. Which is why I even bothered to post this. It's interesting (and I stress ONLY interesting) that both the Euro and GFS both see the same thing.

Something to watch for, I guess. This would take us around Friday or Saturday of next week, if you're playing at home.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Looking at the long range models (just for fun), both the Euro and the GFS are showing something in the GOM in 10 days. The GFS has been ridiculously bad this year. But the Euro has been OK and normally errs on the side of caution. Which is why I even bothered to post this. It's interesting (and I stress ONLY interesting) that both the Euro and GFS both see the same thing.

Something to watch for, I guess. This would take us around Friday or Saturday of next week, if you're playing at home.
Click to expand...
Canadian model run shows it there, too.

 
Interesting stat:

The Atlantic looks dead and the the GOM and Caribbean don't look promising either. Edouard dissipated on September 19th. Since 1900, only 1918 and 1914 had hurricane seasons that ended on or before the 19th. 1918 was on the 14th and 1914 was on the 19th. Of course, this was before satellite, so they may have missed one out there.

That said, this season is looking to be one of the shortest ever unless a miracle pops up out there.

 
Invest 93L in the Bay of Campeche. This thing looks like it'll get swept up in the front and moved across S FL. Not sure it has a chance to reach Tropical Storm status, but FL could be in for some pretty good soaking rains.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Invest 93L in the Bay of Campeche. This thing looks like it'll get swept up in the front and moved across S FL. Not sure it has a chance to reach Tropical Storm status, but FL could be in for some pretty good soaking rains.
Click to expand...
TD 9 formed last night. Nothing to worry about for the next couple of days as it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula, but after that, it moves into some pretty favorable conditions. This is definitely something to keep an eye on.

 
Here's something you don't see everyday: the NHC has put an invest on a system while it is over land. Invest 94L (formerly TD Nine (formerly Invest 93L)) is one to keep watching. Don't pay too much attention to the model runs, as the data still isn't coming in correctly. We're kind of seeing the old GIGO (Garbage In, Garbage Out) happening.

This could be the last hurrah of the 2014 tropical season. I don't think there's much energy left out there to support much more formation this season.

 
Got all caught up in the snow thread, forgot to mention Tropical Storm Hanna. Formed almost over land. And will move into Nicaragua almost as quickly as it formed.

Invest 95L is up just east of the Lesser Antillies. Should recurve out to sea, if it forms. But doesn't look like much.

 
Below average hurricane season expected. Seems odd, since they usually seem to say the opposite. Guess they were tired of being wrong.

Average:

Named Storms: 12
Hurricanes: 6.5
Major Hurricanes: 2

Forecasted:

Named Storms: 7
Hurricanes: 3
Major Hurricanes: 1

2015 Atlantic Basin Names:

Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

I predict Fred will be the major one. No scientific reasoning. Just my guess.

 
Does this storm get named and counted if it fully forms as non-tropical? Right now NHC states non-tropical low pressure system.

Some of the earliest tracks seem to suggest NY metro area. We could use some rain I guess.

 
Gawain said:
Does this storm get named and counted if it fully forms as non-tropical? Right now NHC states non-tropical low pressure system.

Some of the earliest tracks seem to suggest NY metro area. We could use some rain I guess.
Click to expand...
Yes and yes. I think the tracks will trend east as time moves on.

 
Looks like we're about to get Bill. This system will have a lot of moisture and anywhere it lands in Texas would already be extremely saturated, meaning more flooding. Looks like this thing will get picked up by frontal boundary and get thrown quickly through the midwest and out off the mid Atlantic. Could be nasty for those areas, too. Definitely something to watch for almost everyone east of the Rockies.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Looks like we're about to get Bill. This system will have a lot of moisture and anywhere it lands in Texas would already be extremely saturated, meaning more flooding. Looks like this thing will get picked up by frontal boundary and get thrown quickly through the midwest and out off the mid Atlantic. Could be nasty for those areas, too. Definitely something to watch for almost everyone east of the Rockies.
Click to expand...
Here's the 7 day forecasted model for rainfall. Gives you a good idea of what is expected from good ol' Bill. The National Hurricane Center says that it should officially become Bill sometime this afternoon.

 
Say hello to the first Cape Verde Invest of the season. Invest 96L. It's a long ways out, but the models have it heading west, so something to watch. Looks like the Cape Verde season will start off much stronger than the first part of the season. Behind this system are two more possible powerful waves.

 
TD #4 is officially formed out in the Atlantic.

This thing should become a category 2 hurricane by the time it reaches the Caribbean. After that, who knows. :shrug:

 
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