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*** Official 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread *** / Now 2015 too (1 Viewer)

TheIronSheik said:
Please welcome....

DANNY!
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He's in just the right spot and trajectory to keep everyone worried right now.The perfect spot to speed into the Gulf, or take the hard turn at the islands and head to the east coast.

 
Mjolnirs said:
TheIronSheik said:
Please welcome....

DANNY!
Click to expand...
He's in just the right spot and trajectory to keep everyone worried right now.The perfect spot to speed into the Gulf, or take the hard turn at the islands and head to the east coast.
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Exactly. And not much in the way of it to impede development. Sheer is low, water is warm. Going to be interesting to watch the next 7 to 10 days.

 
JShare87 said:
TheIronSheik said:
Mjolnirs said:
Erika has my attention.
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The models are showing a possible strong hurricane near the Bahamas by the weekend. This is a storm the entire east coast should be keeping an eye on.
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It looks like it's going to turn before it gets to the U.S. Obviously it is too far out to tell, but the models show it turning before it gets to the east coast.
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Some do. But a couple models, like the ECMWF, have the chances of it hitting the EC at around 50%. Again, it's still a long way away, but it's definitely something people on the EC should be watching.

 
Next 24 hours should probably tell us a lot since it has to over/around Hispaniola.

But it looks like no matter what it's gonna be a bunch of rain for Florida, which doesn't really need it.

 
Everyone along the East Coast should be keeping an eye on Joaquin. There is NO DEFINITIVE PATH as of now, but the east coast is a possible landing spot. It most likely won't reach hurricane status, but that doesn't mean it can't be nasty. The EC could see 2 to 4 inches TONIGHT from a front that is being fueled by tropical moisture. Add in a tropical system a couple days later and major flooding will be an issue. Here's the PROJECTED rainfall for the next 7 days.

Again, the TS's path is not set in stone. In fact, there is no agreement on where it will head, but the EC is a definite possibility.

The overnight rain tonight is a definite, though.

 
Weatherboy is scaring me with the amount of rain hes saying we're gonna get. Meanwhile nobody else is mentioning joaquin.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Everyone along the East Coast should be keeping an eye on Joaquin. There is NO DEFINITIVE PATH as of now, but the east coast is a possible landing spot. It most likely won't reach hurricane status, but that doesn't mean it can't be nasty. The EC could see 2 to 4 inches TONIGHT from a front that is being fueled by tropical moisture. Add in a tropical system a couple days later and major flooding will be an issue. Here's the PROJECTED rainfall for the next 7 days.

Again, the TS's path is not set in stone. In fact, there is no agreement on where it will head, but the EC is a definite possibility.

The overnight rain tonight is a definite, though.
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OMG, that's alot of rain. We have been in a drought pattern the last two months, otherwise this would be a replay of the 2010 floods in R.I.
 
Joaquin/Superstorm whatever has me concerned. We've had a lot of rain already. Pack in more rain and high winds, could be Isabel all over again (trees down, 2 weeks no power). Time to prep the generator. Timing by the power company was great though. They sent a tree company through a couple weeks ago to remove all the limbs around power lines.

ETA: Joaquin is now a cat 1 cane and could make cat 2 later. Probably cat 1 at landfall.

 
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I (and my wife) leave for Aruba at 11:18 am out of JFK on Sunday, October 4.

We were flooded out during Sandy. We have since moved closer to the water. (3' above high tide on a 2' concrete pad).

We live on the South Shore of Long Island. Our current place came through Irene fine and took 3' of water during Sandy.

What are the chances:

A) We actually manage to leave for Aruba.

B) We come back to an house that's not water-logged.

 
3C said:
Joaquin/Superstorm whatever has me concerned. We've had a lot of rain already. Pack in more rain and high winds, could be Isabel all over again (trees down, 2 weeks no power). Time to prep the generator. Timing by the power company was great though. They sent a tree company through a couple weeks ago to remove all the limbs around power lines.

ETA: Joaquin is now a cat 1 cane and could make cat 2 later. Probably cat 1 at landfall.
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Really hoping this isn't like Isabel. We were hit pretty hard from Isabel. I don't want to go through that again.

 
If this thing tracks west of R.I.Long Island is in big trouble. The water is very warm for October, and it goes pretty deep. This is gonna be interesting.

 
MattFancy said:
3C said:
Joaquin/Superstorm whatever has me concerned. We've had a lot of rain already. Pack in more rain and high winds, could be Isabel all over again (trees down, 2 weeks no power). Time to prep the generator. Timing by the power company was great though. They sent a tree company through a couple weeks ago to remove all the limbs around power lines.

ETA: Joaquin is now a cat 1 cane and could make cat 2 later. Probably cat 1 at landfall.
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Really hoping this isn't like Isabel. We were hit pretty hard from Isabel. I don't want to go through that again.
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I'm going to prepare as if it will be and hoping it will be a wasted effort. No power, means no water, no showers, making do food wise. Wasn't fun in 2003 or 2011. Well, the first few days were okay but it got old by day 5 or so.

 
3C said:
Joaquin/Superstorm whatever has me concerned. We've had a lot of rain already.
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This is the biggest thing probably. By the time the weekend rolls around the ground is going to be saturated and all the waterways will be full. Hurricane remnants on top of that would suck.

 
PIK95 said:
Will this be the storm where I take my generator out of the box?
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I know I'll be getting mine out of the shed for the first time this year. Gonna gas it up and fill all my gas cans. But I live "in the woods" and if there's mass outages we'll be one of the last to get power back.

 
I'm surprised storm surge isn't being discussed yet on television. It will be a huge issue for someone, looking at the latest tracks.

 
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Gawain said:
I (and my wife) leave for Aruba at 11:18 am out of JFK on Sunday, October 4.

We were flooded out during Sandy. We have since moved closer to the water. (3' above high tide on a 2' concrete pad).

We live on the South Shore of Long Island. Our current place came through Irene fine and took 3' of water during Sandy.

What are the chances:

A) We actually manage to leave for Aruba.

B) We come back to an house that's not water-logged.
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Not sure about B but my guess is you will be there to find out. I'd be surprised if an airline sends a jet out of JFK when there are going to be so many cancelled flights they'll need to make up in the coming days.

 
When Sandy hit, I spent well over a week running a fireplace in the mountains of western Maryland to keep the place from freezing over while First Energy/Allegheny Power/Potomac Edison struggled to restore service. At least there's no snow involved this time. Yet.

 
BowieMercs said:
When Sandy hit, I spent well over a week running a fireplace in the mountains of western Maryland to keep the place from freezing over while First Energy/Allegheny Power/Potomac Edison struggled to restore service. At least there's no snow involved this time. Yet.
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Take it to the survival thread
 
BowieMercs said:
When Sandy hit, I spent well over a week running a fireplace in the mountains of western Maryland to keep the place from freezing over while First Energy/Allegheny Power/Potomac Edison struggled to restore service. At least there's no snow involved this time. Yet.
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Yeah, I was thinking earlier that the times we've had one of these storms take out power for extended lengths of time it has been hot out. At least it won't be hot this time, and not cold either.

 
Looks like the latest run has bounced the odds of at least tropical storm winds in the NYC/LI area on Sunday to 3 to 1 (24%).

Going to be some sad campers at the house if instead of tropical waves, we are at home, with waves lapping at the front door.

I still have vivid memories from Sandy. The way cars look underwater, with flashing lights from shorted car alarms. The helplessness you feel when water starts to come in through the floor. An Ed Mangano sign lazily floating past the window.

 
Latest NHC track has a major hurricane off GA/SC coast that weakens some before landfall around OBX and SE VA. Nice knowing you guys. :mellow:

 
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