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***Official 2014 World Cup Thread*** (5 Viewers)

charvik said:
NewlyRetired said:
One of the problems of being in Concacaf is so rarely getting a real game against top competition that is not a friendly with 6 subs. I am not sure countries give these as much weight as we do. We beat plenty of good countries prior to 2002 as well but that did not stop Portugal from overlooking the US.
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oh, and most countries do not care one iota about results in friendlies... I would not put too much weight on a win against Spain (as an example) in a friendly.
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Ironically Spain is pretty much the only big country I can think of that we have a "real" win against in the last 10 years, since it did not come in a friendly. I am probably missing some one obvious but Portugal was way back in 2002 and the US lost all 3 at the 2007 Copa America.

 
NewlyRetired said:
charvik said:
NewlyRetired said:
One of the problems of being in Concacaf is so rarely getting a real game against top competition that is not a friendly with 6 subs. I am not sure countries give these as much weight as we do. We beat plenty of good countries prior to 2002 as well but that did not stop Portugal from overlooking the US.
Click to expand...
oh, and most countries do not care one iota about results in friendlies... I would not put too much weight on a win against Spain (as an example) in a friendly.
Click to expand...
Ironically Spain is pretty much the only big country I can think of that we have a "real" win against in the last 10 years, since it did not come in a friendly. I am probably missing some one obvious but Portugal was way back in 2002 and the US lost all 3 at the 2007 Copa America.
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That's probably one more legit win against a top team than most of the field have. What was England's last big win against a major power in a major competition (or even qualifiying)? To say nothing of Belgium. Switzerland at least has one over Spain themselves.

It's a self-fulfilling prophecy, really. Almost any team in Comnebol is going to have a "real" upset over Argentina or Brazil somewhat recently, because they play them in qualifying and in the Copa so much.

 
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
NewlyRetired said:
charvik said:
NewlyRetired said:
One of the problems of being in Concacaf is so rarely getting a real game against top competition that is not a friendly with 6 subs. I am not sure countries give these as much weight as we do. We beat plenty of good countries prior to 2002 as well but that did not stop Portugal from overlooking the US.
Click to expand...
oh, and most countries do not care one iota about results in friendlies... I would not put too much weight on a win against Spain (as an example) in a friendly.
Click to expand...
Ironically Spain is pretty much the only big country I can think of that we have a "real" win against in the last 10 years, since it did not come in a friendly. I am probably missing some one obvious but Portugal was way back in 2002 and the US lost all 3 at the 2007 Copa America.
Click to expand...
That's probably one more legit win against a top team than most of the field have. What was England's last big win against a major power in a major competition (or even qualifiying)? To say nothing of Belgium. Switzerland at least has one over Spain themselves.

It's a self-fulfilling prophecy, really. Almost any team in Comnebol is going to have a "real" upset over Argentina or Brazil somewhat recently, because they play them in qualifying and in the Copa so much.
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England's biggest win in recent years is probably beating Switzerland in Switzerland in Euro qualifying. They have had a long run of disappointments at the major tournaments the last 10 years.

 
CletiusMaximus said:
I was at a local soccer shop last week looking for a gift for my son's birthday and it was all Neymar. It helps that Addidas does Brazil kits and they already released the 2014 design (together with France, Germany, Mexico, Russia and a few others). Perhaps not well known to the casual US fan, but the young soccer players are all about Neymar atm.
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//sidenote//

Both of my boys asked for national jerseys for Christmas. Was able to find the black Portugal (CR7 baby)jersey on ebay for $30 and when I got was surprised by the good quality. Ordered a Messi Argentina last night and waiting to see if it's as good.

 
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
Imagine the "make up call" conspiracy theories if the US and England get easy groups. Sunil might be giving Blatter a foot rub as we speak.
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Someone will conspire about something I'm sure :) Of course when Brazil ends up with Croatia, Algeria, and Honduras in their group I may have to change my mind ;)

I did think that another reason for the 9-team pot was that when France moved up in the November rankings it was Russia who dropped down into the 9th spot. They wouldn't do the next host like that either.

-QG

 
Sinn Fein said:
Do you think FIFA already knows the groups?
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It is so hard to put anything past FIFA. I lean towards it is a real draw but of course none of us would be surprised to find out it was somewhat fixed.

The only thing that keeps me from saying it is fixed is that the groups of death sometimes include 2 big Euro teams, and it is hard to imagine they would allow that to occur knowing how similarly corrupt UEFA is.

 
Unless the US draws Switzerland, Pot 2 is going to be the key for how I feel about this US draw, I think. I'm not going to be confident about any team in Pot 4 or Pot 1. If they can draw one of the "minnows" in Pot 2, I'll have a lot more confidence heading into next summer...hope they can get 3 against that team and scrape up some points from the other two. If they draw Chile or <insert Euro team>, or even perhaps Ghana or Ivory Coast, I'll be worried.

That said, it's impossible to predict what kind of form a team is going to be in 6 months out. Some traditional powers always crash out...see Italy and France in 2010....

 
I did some research today. Here are the US's results versus the other 31 countries since 1991 (I chose that year because it kind of demarcates the start of the US taking soccer seriously in the modern era with the build up to WC 1994).

All Results from a US perspective in W-T-L (any games lost at PK's I am putting in as a loss)

South America

Argentina: 2-2-3

Brazil: 1-0-15

Chile: 3-1-1

Colombia: 2-2-6

Ecuador: 2-1-3

Uruguay: 2-1-1

Europe

Belgium: 0-0-4

Bosnia: 1-0-0

Croatia: 0-0-0

England: 1-1-3

France: 0-0-1

Germany: 3-0-6

Greece: 0-1-0

Italy: 1-2-2

Holland: 0-0-4

Portugal: 2-0-0

Russia: 1-3-3 (includes 2 games as CIS)

Spain:1-0-3

Switzerland: 1-2-1

Africa

Algeria: 1-0-0

Cameroon: 0-1-1

Ghana: 0-0-2

Ivory Coast: 1-0-0

Nigeria: 1-0-0

Asia

Australia: 1-1-1

Iran: 0-1-1

Japan: 1-0-1

South Korea: 1-2-1

North and Central America

Costa Rica: 10-5-7

Honduras: 14-1-4

Mexico: 15-7-11

=======================

Notes:

*The only team US has not played in this time frame was Croatia

*Teams we have never taken a point off are Belgium, Holland, France, Ghana

*Have not played Greece since 1994 (longest of any team outside of Croatia)

*Of the 31 teams, the US has winning records against 10 of them (3 being the CONCACAF teams)

 
Heres my take, which I know you guys have all been clamoring for:

In pot one, I would rather play Spain than some of the *upstart* nations like Belgium and Colombia. Spain in 2014 is reminiscnet of France or Italy at the tail end of their World Cup victories - sky high expectations but caught between two generations of players. They are my #1 candidate to be upset in the group stage. The best option for us would clearly be Switzerland, followed by Uruguay (not in top form, unsure if they can repeat past success). Dont want anything to do with Germany, Argentina or Brazil.

In pot four, France would be a terrirfic draw IMO. Big name whose reputation far exceeds its actual ability. The only team I fear in this group is Netherlands. None of the other teams are pushovers but none are invincible either.

Funny fluff piece from SI about how Pot One nations hope to avoid the US in the draw.

http://soccer.si.com/2013/12/05/media-sampling-around-the-world-suggests-foreign-powers-hope-to-avoid-usa/

 
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why would it be such a disaster for brazil to do poorly? is it because their fans are crazy and will start beheading the organizers or something?

 
Native said:
Funny fluff piece from SI about how Pot One nations hope to avoid the US in the draw.

http://soccer.si.com/2013/12/05/media-sampling-around-the-world-suggests-foreign-powers-hope-to-avoid-usa/
Click to expand...
thanks for the link!

When you described the artile I thought it was suppose to be a joke article making fun of the US. It was just the opposite and does line up with what most of us feel in that no team really wants to see the US come out of our Pot into their group when they could get Honduras, Iran, or Costa Rica. I think teams would even prefer Australia over the US.

Mexico, US, Japan and SK are probably all on a relatively even level for the teams to avoid from our pot.

 
Scoresman said:
why would it be such a disaster for brazil to do poorly? is it because their fans are crazy and will start beheading the organizers or something?
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typically it is important for the host country's economy for the host country to do well in the tournament. The host country spends a ton of money to get the WC up and running and the longer the run by the host country in the WC, the more ways money can be generated.

Brazil also has some issues going on its country that a collapse by the National Team certainly won't help anyone forget.

 
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NewlyRetired said:
I did some research today. Here are the US's results versus the other 31 countries since 1991 (I chose that year because it kind of demarcates the start of the US taking soccer seriously in the modern era with the build up to WC 1994).

All Results from a US perspective in W-T-L (any games lost at PK's I am putting in as a loss)

QG here - I put (W-L-T style in parentheses) Especially helpful for casual fans and unrepentant Muricans :)

South America

Argentina: 2-2-3 (2-3-2)

Brazil: 1-0-15 (1-15-0)

Chile: 3-1-1 (3-1-1)

Colombia: 2-2-6 (2-6-2)

Ecuador: 2-1-3 (2-3-1)

Uruguay: 2-1-1 (2-1-1)

Europe

Belgium: 0-0-4 (0-4-0)

Bosnia: 1-0-0 (1-0-0)

Croatia: 0-0-0 (0-0-0)

England: 1-1-3 (1-3-1)

France: 0-0-1 (0-1-0)

Germany: 3-0-6 (3-6-0)

Greece: 0-1-0 (0-0-1)

Italy: 1-2-2 (1-2-2)

Holland: 0-0-4 (0-4-0)

Portugal: 2-0-0 (2-0-0)

Russia: 1-3-3 (includes 2 games as CIS) (1-3-3)

Spain:1-0-3 (1-3-0)

Switzerland: 1-2-1 (1-1-2)

Africa

Algeria: 1-0-0 (1-0-0)

Cameroon: 0-1-1 (0-1-1)

Ghana: 0-0-2 (0-2-0)

Ivory Coast: 1-0-0 (1-0-0)

Nigeria: 1-0-0 (1-0-0)

Asia

Australia: 1-1-1 (1-1-1)

Iran: 0-1-1 (0-1-1)

Japan: 1-0-1 (1-1-0)

South Korea: 1-2-1 (1-1-2)

North and Central America

Costa Rica: 10-5-7 (10-7-5)

Honduras: 14-1-4 (14-4-1)

Mexico: 15-7-11 (15-11-7)

=======================

Notes:

*The only team US has not played in this time frame was Croatia

*Teams we have never taken a point off are Belgium, Holland, France, Ghana

*Have not played Greece since 1994 (longest of any team outside of Croatia)

*Of the 31 teams, the US has winning records against 10 of them (3 being the CONCACAF teams)
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I Muricanized this cuz I just can't read the W-T-L format

-QG

 
Teams want to avoid the US for a variety of reasons:

1) relative strength and depth of squad, particularly the increasing exposure and maturing of US players in Europe.

2) USA fans travel well no matter the country or continent.

3) Jurgen give the USA a winning cachet and edge vs. European teams that it never had before, he's a proven winner on the world stage.

4) USA's playing style of a quality countering team, good set piece offense, and good fitness levels make them a bad team to face in a tournament setting.

 
The most watched soccer game of all time in the US was the 2010 WC Final which drew 24.3 million.

I think the 2014 Final can beat that, and will beat it handily if one of Argie, Portugal or Brazil gets in which will draw some extra casual viewers.

A US vs Mexico meeting in the second round or quarter final could also beat that number depending on the time slot.

 
NewlyRetired said:
The most watched soccer game of all time in the US was the 2010 WC Final which drew 24.3 million.

I think the 2014 Final can beat that, and will beat it handily if one of Argie, Portugal or Brazil gets in which will draw some extra casual viewers.

A US vs Mexico meeting in the second round or quarter final could also beat that number depending on the time slot.
Click to expand...
USA v. MEX regardless of stage would best that number for sure. It will be hyped beyond belief.

 
The Z Machine said:
NewlyRetired said:
The most watched soccer game of all time in the US was the 2010 WC Final which drew 24.3 million.

I think the 2014 Final can beat that, and will beat it handily if one of Argie, Portugal or Brazil gets in which will draw some extra casual viewers.

A US vs Mexico meeting in the second round or quarter final could also beat that number depending on the time slot.
Click to expand...
USA v. MEX regardless of stage would best that number for sure. It will be hyped beyond belief.
Click to expand...
The time time slot will still have a lot to say whether they can get anywhere near it. If it is a weekday afternoon slot, it will be very tough to beat that number no matter how hyped it is. The ESPN3 streaming numbers would probably set records though.

If they get a weekend time slot, they would easily beat that number IMO (the US Ghana second round game which got a nice Saturday slot last cycle drew more than 19 million viewers.

 
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The Z Machine said:
NewlyRetired said:
The most watched soccer game of all time in the US was the 2010 WC Final which drew 24.3 million.

I think the 2014 Final can beat that, and will beat it handily if one of Argie, Portugal or Brazil gets in which will draw some extra casual viewers.

A US vs Mexico meeting in the second round or quarter final could also beat that number depending on the time slot.
Click to expand...
USA v. MEX regardless of stage would best that number for sure. It will be hyped beyond belief.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure NewlyRetired is assuming that USA v. MEX would only happen in the second round or quarter final. They can't meet in the group stage and the chances of them meeting in the semis or finals have to be close to zero.

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
The Z Machine said:
NewlyRetired said:
The most watched soccer game of all time in the US was the 2010 WC Final which drew 24.3 million.

I think the 2014 Final can beat that, and will beat it handily if one of Argie, Portugal or Brazil gets in which will draw some extra casual viewers.

A US vs Mexico meeting in the second round or quarter final could also beat that number depending on the time slot.
Click to expand...
USA v. MEX regardless of stage would best that number for sure. It will be hyped beyond belief.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure NewlyRetired is assuming that USA v. MEX would only happen in the second round or quarter final. They can't meet in the group stage and the chances of them meeting in the semis or finals have to be close to zero.
Click to expand...
correct. So it all comes down to a time slot as to how big this game could get.

One of the fun items of the draw is not only seeing what teams you will play in the first round but also being able to speculate what your second round match ups will be, since it is already determine that winner of group A plays second place in Group B and Winner of Group B plays second place from Group A etc, etc etc.

 
I hope we never play Mexico in a WC again.

It's the biggest game the two have ever played, we won, and it helped add to the legend of Dos-a-Cero. I don't ever want them to have a shot at redemption.

Likewise, I've really come around on the fact that the US saved Mexico's spot in the World Cup by just playing hard and doing the right thing in Panama. The only thing better than Mexico missing, is that they're in 100% thanks to our sportsmanship and culture of playing through the final whistle.

 
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What is the time difference between the east coast and Brazil? Wondering what time the majority of games will be broadcast here so I know if I will need to use some sick days.

 
berndog said:
What is the time difference between the east coast and Brazil? Wondering what time the majority of games will be broadcast here so I know if I will need to use some sick days.
Click to expand...
Depends on which time zone they will be playing in.

Amazon Time Zone(UTC-04:00)
Brasília Time Zone(UTC-03:00)
Fernando de Noronha Time Zone(UTC-02:00)

ETA:
EST UTC−5:00 EDT UTC−4:00

ETA2: Use this page to convert the time for each game to your time zone. http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/matches/


 
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charvik said:
:blackdot:

I will definitely run a WC pool contest this tournament as well. I believe for the 4th time on this forum. The other times we have started to recruit pretty late, causing a lot of people to miss out, but I intend on having the sheets ready early this time around, probably within a couple of weeks of the draw, once we know the groups.

ETA: I tried to search for the older threads but they seem to be purged... oh well. I'll post the rules when I can locate my old spread sheets, and we can discuss modifications. I think we've had 40 - 60 participants, about half FBGs the other years.
Click to expand...
The reigning champ is in. Thanks for all your money 4 years ago.

 
NewlyRetired said:
Sinn Fein said:
Do you think FIFA already knows the groups?
Click to expand...
It is so hard to put anything past FIFA. I lean towards it is a real draw but of course none of us would be surprised to find out it was somewhat fixed.

The only thing that keeps me from saying it is fixed is that the groups of death sometimes include 2 big Euro teams, and it is hard to imagine they would allow that to occur knowing how similarly corrupt UEFA is.
Click to expand...
If Qatar gets an easy group in 2014, I'll be very suspicious.

 
Pele has turned down a role in the World Cup draw because he feared having a hand in dealing Brazil into a tough group. Thankfully, I can get my fill of the Cosmos legend in the new Subway ads.

No word on Miss BumBum.

 
Brazil being the host country will receive the easiest draw per the committee even US when they hosted had a cake draw.

Per ESPN several simulations have us being placed in the group of death due to the fact that our world ranking does not give us the opportunity to play cupcakes in the First Round.

They are stating our group will be made up of

Argentina

Nigeria

USA

Italy or Netherlands

I would not call beating Nigeria an Upset but if we beat Italy/Netherlands or Argentina if that is such a group then we can party in the streets that would be a major victory and the momentum should help us throughout the remainder of the Mondial.

 
How can they guarantee an easy group for Brazil if its supposedly randomized the way it is?

 
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From a Blog Post

The host nation never gets handed a tough group. Don't be surprised if Brazil are with Iran, Algeria and Bosnia-Herzegovina, which is about as undemanding as it can get given the quality of the overall field.

Not guaranteed but even the US in 1994 had a pretty easy draw except for drawing Colombia at the time was a powerhouse but then Andres Escobar scored an own goal.

 
uconnalum said:
From a Blog Post

The host nation never gets handed a tough group. Don't be surprised if Brazil are with Iran, Algeria and Bosnia-Herzegovina, which is about as undemanding as it can get given the quality of the overall field.

Not guaranteed but even the US in 1994 had a pretty easy draw except for drawing Colombia at the time was a powerhouse but then Andres Escobar scored an own goal.
Click to expand...
ok, but how does this jive with the posts on the previous page claiming that they basically do a draw from a hat to determine the groups?

 
Scoresman said:
uconnalum said:
From a Blog Post

The host nation never gets handed a tough group. Don't be surprised if Brazil are with Iran, Algeria and Bosnia-Herzegovina, which is about as undemanding as it can get given the quality of the overall field.

Not guaranteed but even the US in 1994 had a pretty easy draw except for drawing Colombia at the time was a powerhouse but then Andres Escobar scored an own goal.
Click to expand...
ok, but how does this jive with the posts on the previous page claiming that they basically do a draw from a hat to determine the groups?
Click to expand...
Stop asking questions. He said he got it from a blog, what more do you want?

 
Slapdash said:
Wake me up when the draw actually happens...
Click to expand...
This. I'm glad you guys have gotten so much entertainment from all this, but it is out of our control. I can't bring myself to care until I actually see the group. QG's percentage post was interesting though. I will be up super mega early around 9 though to catch it.

 
More number chugging :)

Based on the November FIFA rankings:

the strongest possible group is Argentina, Italy, USA, Portugal

the weakest possible group is Belgium, Cameroon, Australia, Russia

Based on the SPI rankings:

the strongest possible group is Spain, Chile, USA, France

the weakest possible group is Switzerland, Algeria, Australia, Croatia (could you imagine?)

Based on the ELO rankings:

the strongest possible group is Brazil, Netherlands, USA, England

the weakest possible group is Belgium, Algeria, Honduras, Bosnia-Herzegovina

Based on the average of the 3 rankings organizations:

the strongest possible group is Spain, Chile, USA, Netherlands

(side note if you just rank the teams in the tourney, that average has the above tied with Argentina, Netherlands, USA, Portugal)

the weakest possible group is Switzerland, Algeria, Australia, Croatia

Some other thoughts.

The average group strength, ranking them 1 to 32, would be 66 for the group (great number btw).

What we can consider "fair" can be looked at in two ways:

1) What is the average of the rank of all the other 31 teams? That number times 3 could be considered 'fair' - well for the #1 team the average of everyone else is 17, for the #2 team the average is 16. So for team #1: 1+17+17+17 = 52 is a "fair" group and for team #32 32+16+16+16 = 80 is "fair". By this measure, the USA, which has an average rank of #14.5 this works outs to a "fair" group including them as having a total of 64.19.

2) What would the average rankings of the other teams be if we used a serpentine method?

In this case fair for #1 is to get teams 16, 17, and 32 (a total of 66 and a fair group, but one where the other teams are ranked a total of 65), for #32, "fair" is to get teams 1, 16, and 17 (again a total of 66 for a fair group, but one where the other teams are ranked a total of 33).

So for the USA, "fair" by this measure is opponents with a total ranking of 51.5 (on the serpentine they would get either 2, 18, 31 or 3, 19, 30)

The median strength for the USA group is about 56 (for an average ranking of 13.83 for the other 3 teams in their group) Basically the sum of rankings less than 56 is a "bad luck" scenario for the USA.

In terms of the two key measures above.

79.9% of the possible groups for the USA have a total rankings combined of less than 64.19 - that is there's an 80% chance basically that we will get a group tougher than we "deserve" by measure 1.

82.9% of the possible groups for the USA have a total rankings combined of less than 66 - the other measure I mentioned.

1.5% of the possible groups for the USA have a combined rankings of 66 on the nose.

So just 15.6% of the possible groups have a combined ranking above 66.

There's a 4.167% chance that the USA will be the top ranked team in its group based on average rank.

There's a 37.847% chance that the USA will be the 2nd ranked team in its group based on average rank.

There's a 49.306% chance that the USA will be the 3rd ranked team in its group based on average rank.

There's an 8.681% chance that the SUA will be the 4th ranked team in its group based on average rank.

There's a 17.361% chance all 4 teams in the USA group will be ranked in the top 16 based on average rank.

There's a 4.167% chance that the other 3 teams will ranked in the top 10 based on average rank.

There's a 37.5% chance that we get a bottom 8 team in our group.

There's a 5.556% chance that we get two bottom 12 teams in our group.

So there you go.

:grad:

-QG

 
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Sebowski said:
Slapdash said:
Wake me up when the draw actually happens...
Click to expand...
This. I'm glad you guys have gotten so much entertainment from all this, but it is out of our control. I can't bring myself to care until I actually see the group. QG's percentage post was interesting though. I will be up super mega early around 9 though to catch it.
Click to expand...
Yeah, when people on Facebook I know have never kicked a soccer ball are posting about it, it's gone too far.

 
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