***Official 2014 World Cup Thread*** (2 Viewers)

[QuizGuy66]

Yes I totally enjoy the math of all this

Btw, the argument that the host gets a cake draw every time isn't really accurate.

Look at 2002 - South Korea got US, Portugal, and Poland. Japan did a little better with Russia, Belgium, and Tunisia. But that was no cinch.

In 2010 South Africa was given France, Mexico, and Uruguay. Just a brutal pot for them.

In '94 Romania and Switzerland were top 12-ranked sides and Colombia (despite a pre-tourney ranking of 17) was tipped by many as one of the tournament favorites!

Brazil probably won't get a group of death largely b/c they have a 1/2 chance of drawing one of the weaker pot 3 teams (Australia, Iran, Honduras, Costa Rica) and about a 30% chance of drawing a weak African side (Algeria, Cameroon). There's about a 35% chance they won't draw one of these 6 teams. Where they benefit is that the hosts don't play the other seeds.

-QG

 

[The Gator]

Man, I really hope 2026 is in a good location....I need to get to a World Cup before I die.

If I can pull a sebowski and swing this place to stay...I'll pick you up on the way to Brazil, gb

 

[Steve Tasker]

From a Blog Post

The host nation never gets handed a tough group. Don't be surprised if Brazil are with Iran, Algeria and Bosnia-Herzegovina, which is about as undemanding as it can get given the quality of the overall field.

Not guaranteed but even the US in 1994 had a pretty easy draw except for drawing Colombia at the time was a powerhouse but then Andres Escobar scored an own goal.

ok, but how does this jive with the posts on the previous page claiming that they basically do a draw from a hat to determine the groups?

FIFA is never shady.

 

[Sebowski]

Man, I really hope 2026 is in a good location....I need to get to a World Cup before I die.

If I can pull a sebowski and swing this place to stay...I'll pick you up on the way to Brazil, gb

Budding craft beer movement down there.

 

[QuizGuy66]

For reference here are the average 1 to 32 ranks using FIFA/ELO/SPI combined:

COUNTY AVG32RNK Spain 1 Argentina 2 Germany 2 Brazil 4 Colombia 5 Uruguay 6 Netherlands 6 Portugal 8 England 9 Chile 9 Italy 11 France 12 Belgium 13 USA 14 Switzerland 14 Ecuador 16 Greece 17 Russia 18 Cote D'Ivoire 19 Bosnia 20 Mexico 21 Croatia 22 Ghana 23 Costa Rica 24 Nigeria 25 Japan 26 Iran 27 Honduras 28 South Korea 29 Australia 30 Cameroon 31 Algeria

32

-QG

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Here's the link for quick reference tomorrow showing game locations, distances traveled, average temps and some other relevant data: http://www.forbes.com/sites/bobbymcmahon/2013/12/02/the-numbers-that-show-the-inequity-of-the-fifa-2014-world-cup-draw-2/

As noted earlier in this thread, by structuring the games this way rather than using the traditional "home base" scheduling, FIFA is creating a potentially huge inequity and has made this aspect of the draw almost as important as the identity of the opponents drawn.

Normally at World Cup Finals group play is based in various regions of the host country. This reduces the travel and wear and tear on the teams and it also makes it a lot easier for fans to pitch “base camp” and to follow their respective countries through the initial stage at least.

But not this time.

Let’s take the unfortunate country that will be drawn into position E4. Country E4 will start in Port Alegre (average day time temperature 68) and then fly 340 miles to Curitiba (avg temp 66) – so far so good. But then follows a 1,700 mile plane ride to Manaus, the heart of the Amazon, for the final group game in 83% humidity and a temperature of 90F.

And it isn’t even a case of all teams in the same group suffering to the same degree. Country E2 will travel about half the distance and play in temperatures around 79F.

Even the host nation will see no schedule advantage. Should Brazil win Group A and make it to the final game they will travel nearly 5,500 miles on at least 6 flights over something like 27 days – in winning the 2010 World Cup Spain had to travel 3,007 miles in South Africa. And Brazil may be one of the luckier countries.

 

[NewlyRetired]

In 2006, the WC thread on the FFA had 502 replies and 5,186 views

In 2010, the WC thread on the FFA had 9,544 replies and 109,367 views

We should pass the 2006 numbers in this thread before the turn of the year.

 

[thetman]

Interesting thread! I can't wait until the groups are selected.

 

[NewlyRetired]

Can someone post a link to a legitimate betting site which has the World Cup odds? I am interested to see if and how they change after the draw.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

NR, I use Oddschecker for all this sort of thing. If you use the "best odds" for each team there isn't much fat left for the oddsmakers either. So a nice place to get a quick feel for the odds.

 

[The Z Machine]

Stoked for tomorrow. Regardless of draw, there will be plenty of tasty matchups.

I hope for an England/Argentina and as always a Netherlands/Germany tilt. Italy/Spain is always fun, as is France/England. A Brazil/Argentina final world be awesome, as would anyone beating Brazil in the final.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Stoked for tomorrow. Regardless of draw, there will be plenty of tasty matchups.

I hope for an England/Argentina and as always a Netherlands/Germany tilt. Italy/Spain is always fun, as is France/England. A Brazil/Argentina final world be awesome, as would anyone beating Brazil in the final.

Indeed, it's going to be near-pornographic to have awesome matchups starting right from the group stage. The loaded field's not good for the US, but it should make for an entertaining WC.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Can someone post a link to a legitimate betting site which has the World Cup odds? I am interested to see if and how they change after the draw.

Be advised that most books will probably take their lines down during the draw, and then put them back up several hours later. They won't change them real-time.

I've got chips down on USA, Mexico (from like two years ago ), Colombia, and Uruguay.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Here's Ladbrokes - for entertainment purposes only just for the curiosity of the thread followed by the high and low odds on odd checking site:

Brazil 10 to 3 (5/2 and 7/2)

Germany 5 to 1 (9/2 and 11/2)

Argentina 5 to 1 (5/1 and 6/1)

Spain 11 to 2 (5/1 and 6/1)

Belgium 14 to 1 (14/1 and 16/1)

Holland 18 to 1 (14/1 and 22/1)

Italy 20 to 1 (14/1 and 22/1)

Portugal 20 to 1 (20/1 and 33/1)

Colombia 25 to 1(16/1 and 28/1)

England 25 to 1 (22/1 and 28/1)

Uruguay 25 to 1 (20/1 and 30/1)

France 25 to 1 (20/1 and 33/1)

Chile 40 to 1 (33/1 and 50/1)

Russia 80 to 1 (40/1 and 90/1)

Mexico 100 to 1 (80/1 and 150/1)

Crotia 150 to 1 (74/1 and 150/1)

Ivory Coast 150 to 1 (100/1 and 150/1)

Switzerland 150 to 1 (99/1 and 175/1)

Ghana 150 to 1 (100/1 and 200/1)

USA 150 to 1 (80/1 and 200/1)

Bosnia 150 to 1 (80/1 and 200/1)

Ecuador 150 to 1 (100/1 and 225/1)

Greece 150 to 1 (125/1 and 275/1)

Japan 175 to 1 (80/1 and 175/1)

Nigeria 250 to 1 (150/1 and 300/1)

South Korea 400 to 1 (200/1 and 600/1)

Australia 400 to 1 (250/1 and 600/1)

Cameroon 400 to 1 (199/1 and 800/1)

Algeria 750 to 1 (300/1 and 3000/1)

Costa Rica 1000 to 1 (400/1 and 3000/1)

Iran 1500 to 1 (400/1 and 3500/1)

Honduras 1500 to 1 (400/1 and 6000/1)

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

The bettors seem to have a clear sense of who we should be rooting for in our draw. They also seem to be resigned to what kind of draw we'll probably end up getting.

I expect Switzerland's odds to probably improve - even if it's ridiculous that they are seeded, it'll almost certainly be a big edge when the balls are drawn.

-QG

 

[The Z Machine]

The bettors seem to have a clear sense of who we should be rooting for in our draw. They also seem to be resigned to what kind of draw we'll probably end up getting.

I expect Switzerland's odds to probably improve - even if it's ridiculous that they are seeded, it'll almost certainly be a big edge when the balls are drawn.

-QG

I hope for a murderous group for them. Italy, Chile and Mexico would be nice. No way they make it out of that group.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Ok, here are the most favorable odds for each team using the info at Oddschecker (Brazil 3.5/1, Spain 8/1, etc). I used those to calculate the % chance of each team winning after backing out the vig. We can compare these to the odds post-draw to see who the winners and losers are...

Brazil		3.5	21.77%Germany		5.5	15.07%Argentina	6	13.99%Spain		8	10.88%Belgium		16	5.76%Holland		22	4.26%Italy		23	4.08%Colombia	28	3.38%England		28	3.38%Uruguay		30	3.16%France		33	2.88%Portugal	35	2.72%Chile		50	1.92%Russia		100	0.97%Mexico		150	0.65%Croatia		170	0.57%Switzerland	175	0.56%Japan		180	0.54%Ivory Coast	199	0.49%Ghana		200	0.49%USA		200	0.49%Ecuador		225	0.43%Bosnia-Herzegov 251	0.39%Nigeria		303	0.32%Greece		332	0.29%South Korea	600	0.16%Australia	626	0.16%Cameroon	800	0.12%Algeria		3000	0.03%Costa Rica	3000	0.03%Iran		3500	0.03%Honduras	6000	0.02%

 

[The Z Machine]

That's some quality work for some degenerates dedicated fans.

 

[roadkill1292]

In 2006, the WC thread on the FFA had 502 replies and 5,186 views

In 2010, the WC thread on the FFA had 9,544 replies and 109,367 views

We should pass the 2006 numbers in this thread before the turn of the year.

The numbers are not only going up but accelerating. The increased television exposure has helped a lot. And contrary to what a handful of football luddites believe, it's possible to enjoy following more than one sport. More of us are making that second sport footy for various reasons.

 

[Txns8]

Bovada has some great prop bets (for entertainment purposes of course)

https://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/soccer-specials.jsp

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

In the practice draw yesterday, the US got Uruguay, Nigeria, and Greece. Which would have been a good group. Winnable competitive games with Nigeria and Greece and a showdown with one of the presumptive stars of the tournament.

 

[Mjolnirs]

Fear not Casual Fan. The draw will be held today and this page after page of number crunching, prognosticating, postulating and gnashing of teeth will be over!

The World Cup will then be here ... in six months. Meanwhile, more pages of number crunching, prognasticating, postulating and gnashing of teeth will ensue!

Let's go!

USA!

USA!

USA!

can't quite get white on a different background

DEUTSCHLAND!

DEUTSCHLAND!

DEUTSCHLAND!

 

[T Bell]

BBC Live Coverage

 

[T Bell]

The abortion that was the 1982 WC draw... complete with video of a young Sepp Blatter.

 

[Steve Tasker]

Yeah, I was coming to ask what's a good site for real-time updates today for those of us at work? BBC? Guardian?

ETA - no video, I just want text a la Guardian's game analysis.

 

[mquinnjr]

Anyone in the thread making the trek to Brazil? I'm considering it.

My work has a pool of tickets that are going to be distributed (should you want to buy them) @ face value in waves. The US is in the last wave, of course, so not getting my hopes up. If Final tickets fall to me, then I'll buy a flight, etc. since I have a valid Brazil visa.

 

[T Bell]

Yeah, I was coming to ask what's a good site for real-time updates today for those of us at work? BBC? Guardian?

ETA - no video, I just want text a la Guardian's game analysis.

BBC is just text. There won't be snarky commentary of course - it's the BBC!

 

[Steve Tasker]

Anyone in the thread making the trek to Brazil? I'm considering it.

My work has a pool of tickets that are going to be distributed (should you want to buy them) @ face value in waves. The US is in the last wave, of course, so not getting my hopes up. If Final tickets fall to me, then I'll buy a flight, etc. since I have a valid Brazil visa.

Major has said he is going and Sebowski is considering. It's a no-go for me though.

Maybe Russia in 2018....

 

[Steve Tasker]

Yeah, I was coming to ask what's a good site for real-time updates today for those of us at work? BBC? Guardian?

ETA - no video, I just want text a la Guardian's game analysis.

BBC is just text. There won't be snarky commentary of course - it's the BBC!

I'm a big fan of the Guardian's Dennis Miller-esque commentary where some guy I've never heard of tells a story about how he met some marginally famous player from the early 80s who I've never heard of at the chip shop. WTF did I just read?

 

[Ramsay Hunt Experience]

Steve Goff summing up my thoughts on Ghana.

I ran this draw simulator 19,000 times and the U.S. drew Ghana every single time. Look: We are karmically tied to Ghana. We are not going to take the next step as a team until we slay the Ghanaian dragon. And that’s fair: We can’t say “we’re an emerging soccer power!” and “I am scared to death of Ghana!” at the same time.

Ghana is emblematic of whichever Pot B team we draw; if we want to advance, we’re simply going to have to beat a good African or second-tier South American team. Honestly, I think Ghana is only the second-best African team right now; I think Nigeria is slightly better. But accept this: Ghana is some sort of test of worthiness that the soccer gods are giving us. Ghana is our Dagobah Cave of Evil.

 

[mquinnjr]

Anyone in the thread making the trek to Brazil? I'm considering it.

My work has a pool of tickets that are going to be distributed (should you want to buy them) @ face value in waves. The US is in the last wave, of course, so not getting my hopes up. If Final tickets fall to me, then I'll buy a flight, etc. since I have a valid Brazil visa.

Major has said he is going and Sebowski is considering. It's a no-go for me though.

Maybe Russia in 2018....

OK cool, I'll check back in if I get anywhere with my tickets in a few weeks.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Steve Goff summing up my thoughts on Ghana.

I ran this draw simulator 19,000 times and the U.S. drew Ghana every single time. Look: We are karmically tied to Ghana. We are not going to take the next step as a team until we slay the Ghanaian dragon. And thats fair: We cant say were an emerging soccer power! and I am scared to death of Ghana! at the same time.

Ghana is emblematic of whichever Pot B team we draw; if we want to advance, were simply going to have to beat a good African or second-tier South American team. Honestly, I think Ghana is only the second-best African team right now; I think Nigeria is slightly better. But accept this: Ghana is some sort of test of worthiness that the soccer gods are giving us. Ghana is our Dagobah Cave of Evil.

I agree with this take as well. We can't be afraid of Ghana, and should really welcome an opportunity to beat them. In a similar vein, I don't think drawing with Brazil, Spain, Argentina or Germany is necessarily that bad. It reduces the group to a 3 way race for one spot, and you've got an outside chance to steal a point if you play them in the third game after they've clinched.

 

[Sammy3469]

Here's the link for quick reference tomorrow showing game locations, distances traveled, average temps and some other relevant data: http://www.forbes.com/sites/bobbymcmahon/2013/12/02/the-numbers-that-show-the-inequity-of-the-fifa-2014-world-cup-draw-2/

As noted earlier in this thread, by structuring the games this way rather than using the traditional "home base" scheduling, FIFA is creating a potentially huge inequity and has made this aspect of the draw almost as important as the identity of the opponents drawn.

Normally at World Cup Finals group play is based in various regions of the host country. This reduces the travel and wear and tear on the teams and it also makes it a lot easier for fans to pitch “base camp” and to follow their respective countries through the initial stage at least.

But not this time.

Let’s take the unfortunate country that will be drawn into position E4. Country E4 will start in Port Alegre (average day time temperature 68) and then fly 340 miles to Curitiba (avg temp 66) – so far so good. But then follows a 1,700 mile plane ride to Manaus, the heart of the Amazon, for the final group game in 83% humidity and a temperature of 90F.

And it isn’t even a case of all teams in the same group suffering to the same degree. Country E2 will travel about half the distance and play in temperatures around 79F.

Even the host nation will see no schedule advantage. Should Brazil win Group A and make it to the final game they will travel nearly 5,500 miles on at least 6 flights over something like 27 days – in winning the 2010 World Cup Spain had to travel 3,007 miles in South Africa. And Brazil may be one of the luckier countries.

I did something similar in the main soccer thread. FWIW, if you are thinking of advancing you want to be in either the E or F group as their knockout draws are very favorable. If you want a decent bet, bet on the #1 seeds from those groups especially if its one of the SA teams.

And yes, there will be some teams that are basically eliminated come the draw. If you don't think the heat/humidty will play a factor, look up some of the quotes from Spain from the ConFed Cup last summer after playing in Fortaleza.

 

[The Z Machine]

Steve Goff summing up my thoughts on Ghana.

I ran this draw simulator 19,000 times and the U.S. drew Ghana every single time. Look: We are karmically tied to Ghana. We are not going to take the next step as a team until we slay the Ghanaian dragon. And thats fair: We cant say were an emerging soccer power! and I am scared to death of Ghana! at the same time.

Ghana is emblematic of whichever Pot B team we draw; if we want to advance, were simply going to have to beat a good African or second-tier South American team. Honestly, I think Ghana is only the second-best African team right now; I think Nigeria is slightly better. But accept this: Ghana is some sort of test of worthiness that the soccer gods are giving us. Ghana is our Dagobah Cave of Evil.

I agree with this take as well. We can't be afraid of Ghana, and should really welcome an opportunity to beat them. In a similar vein, I don't think drawing with Brazil, Spain, Argentina or Germany is necessarily that bad. It reduces the group to a 3 way race for one spot, and you've got an outside chance to steal a point if you play them in the third game after they've clinched.

Agreed.

Going to pull up ESPN live feed in a few mins.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I can't believe I scheduled a meeting with a roofer for 11am. All I want to do is see the draw, but instead I'm going to be standing in a cold rain with strep throat and talking about shingles. WTF was I thinking?

 

[charvik]

1 hour!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[CletiusMaximus]

The Brazuca Twitter feed now has over 80,000 followers.

 

[NewlyRetired]

I can't believe I scheduled a meeting with a roofer for 11am. All I want to do is see the draw, but instead I'm going to be standing in a cold rain with strep throat and talking about shingles. WTF was I thinking?

lThe actual draw does not start until 11:45am. How long do you think you need to discuss the roof? Hopefully he shows up on time.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

I can't believe I scheduled a meeting with a roofer for 11am. All I want to do is see the draw, but instead I'm going to be standing in a cold rain with strep throat and talking about shingles. WTF was I thinking?

The US draw is probably at least two hours away, right?

 

[gianmarco]

I can't believe I scheduled a meeting with a roofer for 11am. All I want to do is see the draw, but instead I'm going to be standing in a cold rain with strep throat and talking about shingles. WTF was I thinking?

The only thing I think you can be thankful for is that you're not standing in a cold rain with shingles talking about strep throat.

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

The roofer will probably want to know where Mexico ends up. Invite him inside for a beer.

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

Anywhere else streaming this besides ESPN? It's asking me for my internet provider and I'm at work and I have no idea.

 

[The Gator]

ourswhiskeyintocoffee:

 

[CBusAlex]

Anywhere else streaming this besides ESPN? It's asking me for my internet provider and I'm at work and I have no idea.

You should be able to use your home internet provider, even from other locations.

 

[Premier]

What time is the actual draw after all the bs theatrics.

 

[NewlyRetired]

Anywhere else streaming this besides ESPN? It's asking me for my internet provider and I'm at work and I have no idea.

Fifa.com will be streaming.

 

[NewlyRetired]

What time is the actual draw after all the bs theatrics.

11:45am

 

[CletiusMaximus]

Anywhere else streaming this besides ESPN? It's asking me for my internet provider and I'm at work and I have no idea.

I'm rolling with the Guardian live commentary today at work, which is always good, although it won't have video of Ms BunBun.

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

Anywhere else streaming this besides ESPN? It's asking me for my internet provider and I'm at work and I have no idea.

You should be able to use your home internet provider, even from other locations.

Yeah, I finally figured it out. needed my account number and crap. Now being treated to drumming and dancing montage.

Going to get a burrito now before the excitement starts.

 

[The Gator]

RHE> No pressure but can you please fire up a manhattan so the US's good vibes keep rolling.

PS- best regards to your liver