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*** Official 2016 AtlanticHurricane Season thread *** (3 Viewers)

GoBirds said:
I hope that's not right, any updates?
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The last few models had a move out to the east starting to prevail (after blasting the Caribbean, hope they come through with the least amount of harm possible), but tracks moved back west a little on the 11:00pm run. NHC now stating a 20% chance NC/SC coast sees tropical storm conditions. Haiti really needs some luck at the moment. Was reading that a lot of the buildings in Haiti are still structurally unsound and may not be able to stand up to the rain and surge that the country may see.

ETA: The vast majority of the models are putting continental landfall (if it happens) to central Maine or further east. However, more than 4 or 5 days out, the models have major, major margin of error. Land fall in Florida would be surprising at this point, but anywhere from South Carolina to Bermuda should be monitoring.

 
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Matthew has finally started its creep up north and looking at the track, I think Haiti is fooked and Jamaica dodges (mostly) the bullet. Even if the eye doesn't pass over Haiti, much of the thunderstorm/wind activity is to the east/northeast of the eye, so Haiti will get slammed either way.

Edit: I also won't be totally surprised if Matthew somehow threads the needle between Cuba and Haiti. That requires a bit of fluke maneuvering, but this storm has had a few surprises up its sleeve so far.

 
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If (big IF that far out) the GFS is right, most of the SE/Mid-Atlantic coast is spared. With it that close to the coast of course there will be rough surf and all that, but it stays off the coast enough to bring only some wind and rain to all but eastern Carolinas/VA/MD until early next week. Outer Banks is really close and it could get ugly there, nothing new for them though. Early next week though my untrained eye sees it merging with another system and the NE gets hit pretty hard, rain/wind wise. The eye is still offshore but eventually, and it may not technically be a tropical system by then, makes landfall around eastern Maine.

 
The Euro on the other hand is further west than the GFS. VERY close to FL. And really slow, maybe even a stall, moving up the coast. Then it does something weird: turn to the east, heads out to sea, then late in the run turns south. If that damn thing misses us and then does a loop and comes back I'm gonna be pissed! :mellow:

 
Always trust Brad, Brad is smaht.








Brad Panovich Meteorologist added 3 new photos.



1 hr ·








I noticed this morning the models are underestimating the strength of the Atlantic ridge of high pressure. It was actually stronger with the morning weather balloon launch from Bermuda. Both the GFS and ECMWF had the ridge at 588dm the sounding from Bermuda shows it at 590dm. The result is the ridge is stronger than the models thought which could mean a shift west in #Matthew s track. Stay alert!
 
The ridge being stronger or sliding west was something I was worried about, bad for Carolina coast.

 
3C's said:
Always trust Brad, Brad is smaht.








Brad Panovich Meteorologist added 3 new photos.



1 hr ·








I noticed this morning the models are underestimating the strength of the Atlantic ridge of high pressure. It was actually stronger with the morning weather balloon launch from Bermuda. Both the GFS and ECMWF had the ridge at 588dm the sounding from Bermuda shows it at 590dm. The result is the ridge is stronger than the models thought which could mean a shift west in #Matthew s track. Stay alert!



 




 
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GFS seems to be buying into this theory in the latest model. It now is calling for Matthew to flirt with the Carolina coast, with what appears to be landfall just north of the NC/SC border.

If you look at the historical paths on Wunderground, it seems to eerily be following the same path another Cat 4 storm did in the past. Wish I could find which storm that was for reference.

 
99% of people get their weather from the weather channel or apps.  The weather channel won't update their track and their cone until 5pm.  When that happens, this will quickly become a big story.  The computer models basically had this thing affecting the outer banks and then possibly NE somewhere, now it's likely to hit in Florida or SC.

Also, we are quickly going to reach the point where the computer models are basically what is going to happen, +/- a little room for error.  5+ days is really hard to project the hurricane, as ultimately the steering is driven by other weather systems, and those other weather systems are currently in the Western US or the Atlantic.

But once you start getting closer to the actual event, they do a great job of figuring out, for all intents and purposes, what these things are going to do.

 
shader said:
99% of people get their weather from the weather channel or apps.  The weather channel won't update their track and their cone until 5pm.  When that happens, this will quickly become a big story.  The computer models basically had this thing affecting the outer banks and then possibly NE somewhere, now it's likely to hit in Florida or SC.

Also, we are quickly going to reach the point where the computer models are basically what is going to happen, +/- a little room for error.  5+ days is really hard to project the hurricane, as ultimately the steering is driven by other weather systems, and those other weather systems are currently in the Western US or the Atlantic.

But once you start getting closer to the actual event, they do a great job of figuring out, for all intents and purposes, what these things are going to do.
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Exactly.  Average 5 day model is +/- 250 miles.  So, where we all should be on Monday is on *alert* status.  Nothing to panic about, but absolutely nothing to dismiss either.  Just be on alert and check in.  

Wife and I are discussing what hypothetical conditions would cause us to (a) board the house up and, if bad enough, (b) get out of town.  But, we are by no means is it imminent threat.  Just theoretical right now.

 
shader said:
99% of people get their weather from the weather channel or apps.  The weather channel won't update their track and their cone until 5pm.  When that happens, this will quickly become a big story.  The computer models basically had this thing affecting the outer banks and then possibly NE somewhere, now it's likely to hit in Florida or SC.

Also, we are quickly going to reach the point where the computer models are basically what is going to happen, +/- a little room for error.  5+ days is really hard to project the hurricane, as ultimately the steering is driven by other weather systems, and those other weather systems are currently in the Western US or the Atlantic.

But once you start getting closer to the actual event, they do a great job of figuring out, for all intents and purposes, what these things are going to do.
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There's nothing to indicate it will hit (landfall) Florida as of yet. It will certainly be close and they will likely have some wind and rain. Actual landfall is still expected to be near Wilmington. Anything that comes from anyone other than NHC is speculation, educated guesses, etc. They release advisories at 5pm. It's what everyone else bases their info on. Everyone I know is aware of Matthew, and talking about it. I'd assume it's the same with everyone everywhere along the coast.

 
3C's said:
There's nothing to indicate it will hit (landfall) Florida as of yet. It will certainly be close and they will likely have some wind and rain. Actual landfall is still expected to be near Wilmington. Anything that comes from anyone other than NHC is speculation, educated guesses, etc. They release advisories at 5pm. It's what everyone else bases their info on. Everyone I know is aware of Matthew, and talking about it. I'd assume it's the same with everyone everywhere along the coast.
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The NHC releases their info based on the different model runs that occur throughout the day.  So technically they get their info from the model runs (some of which put this thing really, really close to Florida), and then everyone else gets their info from the NHC, aside from the weather nerds that look at the model runs ahead of the "official NHC track" that the Weather channel runs with.  But many news agencies are quickly realizing that a Florida landfall is possible, and the governor of Florida has already declared a state of emergency, based on the model runs.  The NHC is certainly the main source of info, but once you've seen the info that they've seen, you basically know what they know.

Also, there is no way in the world that anyone, including the NHC can currently peg the "actual landfall" 5-6 days in advance, so there is no location in the CONUS that is currently the expected landfall site.  At this point, if you're in Florida, Georgia, SC or NC, you need to be paying attention to the weather for the next 2 days.  I imagine the cone that the NHC will release very shortly will show that.

 
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5pm track is out.  The cone has been extended into Florida, but the "official track" currently still has the hurricane off-shore and headed towards NC.  

 
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JShare87 said:
Yep. Just got pretty real here in south Florida on the east coast.
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NHC Discussion is out.  They say:

Code: 
 Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week.  Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued
sometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida
peninsula and the Florida Keys.
 
shader said:
The NHC releases their info based on the different model runs that occur throughout the day.  So technically they get their info from the model runs (some of which put this thing really, really close to Florida), and then everyone else gets their info from the NHC, aside from the weather nerds that look at the model runs ahead of the "official NHC track" that the Weather channel runs with.  But many news agencies are quickly realizing that a Florida landfall is possible, and the governor of Florida has already declared a state of emergency, based on the model runs.  The NHC is certainly the main source of info, but once you've seen the info that they've seen, you basically know what they know.

Also, there is no way in the world that anyone, including the NHC can currently peg the "actual landfall" 5-6 days in advance, so there is no location in the CONUS that is currently the expected landfall site.  At this point, if you're in Florida, Georgia, SC or NC, you need to be paying attention to the weather for the next 2 days.  I imagine the cone that the NHC will release very shortly will show that.
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NHC bases their info on models but also the data from hurricane hunters, and they're the ones getting the live data. Models are good and fine but live data, several passes over the hurricane plus passes over the atmosphere around the hurricane (the ridge to the east, the trough to the west) is way more important. The live data is what feeds the models and causes the track shifts.

 
I feel sick thinking about what is going to probably go down in Haiti over the next 24 hours or so. The BP dropped even more, and this thing is probably gaining strength as it rolls Haiti.  If the surge doesn't get you, the rain just might.  Oof.

 
Prayers guys.

This thing is a monster.  Usually the worst side is the eastern side so that's good if there is any silver lining at all.

 
ragincajun said:
Prayers guys.

This thing is a monster.  Usually the worst side is the eastern side so that's good if there is any silver lining at all.
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Haiti is on the eastern side.  It's possible that the Outer Banks may be on the east side if this thing crashes into SC at some point.

 
Yeah it seems to be creeping west.  No offense meant.  Hopefully the eye stays offshore.  Haiti is going to be hurting.  Prayers sent to them.

 
ragincajun said:
Prayers guys.

This thing is a monster.  Usually the worst side is the eastern side so that's good if there is any silver lining at all.
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Looks like they are projected it to be category 2 down from 4 when it makes landfall in US? Hopefully we see some relief in that. THis sucks.

 
This is the first one I'm really sweating in a long time. The further west it goes, the more my house is at risk. I'm only about 5-10 miles from the ocean in Central FL and walking distance from the Indian River. If this thing makes landfall in southern FL rather than staying offshore, I could be in some deep dog pooh. Winds and flooding are both major concerns. Mother f**ker, go east. EAST! 

 
Yeah, it's very weird being in the bullseye in North Florida. With the curvature of the shoreline, the area hasn't taken a direct hit since the early 60's (Dora).

I'm a good 15 miles inland but the house is surrounded by trees and a likely scenario is 24+ hours of tropical force winds.  We have a creek behind the house but we have had storms that dumped 8+ inches of rain and not seen it crest the banks.

I don't understand the models weakening the storm as it runs up the Florida coast. That is still some pretty warm water there.

 
From one of the weather geeks I follow (few hours old, things could change)

00Z EURO IS WEST, LANDFALLS MATTHEW NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT/CAPE FEAR NC SATURDAY NIGHT****

Euro has now, for the first time in regards to Matthew, came west and shows a US landfall. Not only does the track through hour 96-120 verify with the other global models, but the size/intensity of Matthew also verifies. Euro shows a very large and powerful Category 3 Hurricane Matthew landfalling along the southeast NC coast near Cape Lookout/Cape Fear. This is a huge shift towards the overall consensus tonight, and it locks in the perspective of a US landfall along the carolina coast. Unlike the other models, the Euro is not an inland landfall, but due to the relatively large size of Matthews windfield, central SC/NC/VA would experienced prolonged duration of rain and minimal tropical storm force winds, if the Euro solution verifies. However, it does send Matthew east after the landfall, not impacting areas north of VA. Despite the kick east and the coastal landfall instead of an inland track, overall this Euro run serves as a lock for the overall consensus and track among the 00z model guidance: Matthew will be a very large, powerful hurricane with intensity of category 3 to 4 on landfall

 
I like my baby Jesus wearing a monocle, and looking at maps, all sciency like.  

He will keep Cranston safe from all weather threats and I love him. 

Seriously though, I am getting a little nervous for the SC shoreline people, and I can't even think about Haiti right now.  

Does anyone know projected forward speeds for the storm one it gets past Cuba?   Seems to be moving pretty slow. That won't be good for rain totals.

 
PIK95 said:
I like my baby Jesus wearing a monocle, and looking at maps, all sciency like.  

He will keep Cranston safe from all weather threats and I love him. 

Seriously though, I am getting a little nervous for the SC shoreline people, and I can't even think about Haiti right now.  

Does anyone know projected forward speeds for the storm one it gets past Cuba?   Seems to be moving pretty slow. That won't be good for rain totals.
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Once it gets past Cuba it looks like it will speed up considerably.

 
Is the forward speed of the storm added to the wind speed readings?  I remember reading how the 1938 storm was moving forward at around 50mph and that's part of the reason it was so devastating. 

 
Ned said:
That's a pretty amazing site.

Jacksonville area thru NC doesn't look too good.  
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Guy that runs it is a graduate meteorology student at FSU and has received "shout-outs" from many many respected people in the business.

I remember him from back when I first started tracking Hurricanes.  He was a young teenager from Homer Alaska of all places that fell in love with hurricane tracking and essentially devoted his life to it.  He consistently impressed people on the Jeff Masters blog, became one of the "go-to" people on that blog, and seems to be a rising star in the world of meteorology and hurricane tracking.

 
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Basically if you live on the East Coast of Florida all the way up to North Carolina, you need to prepare for a direct impact.

Right now the models and the NHC have the hurricane coming to within 50 miles of the coast.  But as always, remember that the "cone of uncertainty" is about 100 miles 2 days into the future and 130 miles 3 days into the future.  

The consensus "down the middle" path is a nightmare for Charleston btw.

Updated model runs will happen in about 2 hours.  They should start to begin to show a strong consensus on what will happen, and you'll see all the watches and warnings begin to pop up soon.

 
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