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*** Official 2016 AtlanticHurricane Season thread *** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Mjolnirs
- Start date
Brady Marino
Footballguy
Looks like Haiti weakened it a tad. It looked to me like Matthew did an eye replacement just before it hit shore, as it had its most well-defined eye in its life cycle, then lost the eye completely.
This means little in the long run, though. It's still a solid Cat 4 and Weather Underground believes it'll recover over the course of the next day. Big story so far seems to be the immense amounts of rain. Read a report out of Haiti that about 27 inches of rain has fallen since the start of Monday.
This means little in the long run, though. It's still a solid Cat 4 and Weather Underground believes it'll recover over the course of the next day. Big story so far seems to be the immense amounts of rain. Read a report out of Haiti that about 27 inches of rain has fallen since the start of Monday.
rustycolts
Footballguy
I live about 45 miles inland from you.I'm worried about all the very old huge oak trees that surround my house sustained tropical force winds not a good thing in that regard.
shader
Footballguy
Latest GFS runs don't indicate a single obvious landfall anywhere in the CONUS. It basically has the storm approaching the Florida coast around Melbourne, then turning North and riding the coast all the way to the SC/NC border before it heads east.
In that scenario, I suppose no one would feel the full brunt of the winds, but there would be significant beach erosion for a huge portion of the coastline and a small wobble could see a direct impact of a Cat3-4 Hurricane in any of those areas.
In that scenario, I suppose no one would feel the full brunt of the winds, but there would be significant beach erosion for a huge portion of the coastline and a small wobble could see a direct impact of a Cat3-4 Hurricane in any of those areas.
Living north of WPB and now working for a county government, we've got eyes on it. Gas stations are busy, stores are running out of water, and I'm planning on sending the wife and kids to Lakeland, because I might have to stay close by for work. If I have to, I can hunker down in my office.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I've got large palms right in front of my house. If they fall, I have to pray it's towards the street. If they land on my house, it's game over. Also one in the backyard just outside the pool, if that falls on the screen room, it will cave it in.
Also have my wife flying from the west coast into Orlando landing at 5 AM Friday and we're supposed to be on a plane for Pittsburgh at 9 AM Saturday morning to go to the Steelers/Jets game Sunday. Any airport closures could really F this all up.
shader
Footballguy
You guys seem to be right in the area where the storm will look like it's headed, but all the models are in agreement that it will turn north before it hits. Best of luck and I think it's smart to send the family away.
I live in Tennessee and we've had a long-planned trip to Disney this weekend for 2 days to see some family and take the kids to the park. I'm watching like a hawk..Orlando SHOULD be fine by Saturday morning, but I may be driving through some squall lines on Friday.
We'll see what happens. I'm preparing now so my kids don't have to get scared by being stuck in a boarded up house with howling winds and storms outside. It could miss us, we could get slammed (current cycles seem to have it moving slightly to the NW, meaning we might get punched in the face. Still, an ounce of prevention.
Senor Schmutzig
Footballguy
Just got my generator delivered via Amazon Prime this morning and my wife went and bought extra batteries, filled the cars with gasoline with 4 gallons in reserve. Plenty of water, food and booze.
We live in Miami and haven't had to deal with a hurricane yet. I would like to see that trend continue. Depending on what happens in the next 24 hours, I'll be looking to put up my hurricane shutters for only the second time in six years.
We live in Miami and haven't had to deal with a hurricane yet. I would like to see that trend continue. Depending on what happens in the next 24 hours, I'll be looking to put up my hurricane shutters for only the second time in six years.
When a hurricane moves north, the west side is usually much less severe than the east side. Hurricane David, in 1979, was a category 2 storm when it came within 100 miles of Miami, but we hardly knew there was a storm nearby.
When a storm is moving west, like Hurricane Andrew, the strongest side is the north.
3C's
Footballguy
Re the latest GFS run (another trusted source writes):
The new GFS and Canadian model runs push the system a bit more SOUTH and EAST... Therefore, the center of Matthew goes into coastal North Carolina and to the Outer Banks and then out to sea. It is not closer to the coast. It is closer to a European solution. However, it is *NOT* considered a trend since it's one model run. A few other runs have made these changes and went back to the previous solution. Sometimes these models will make little shifts back and forth...and with a complicated pattern and a lot of moving parts, it is expected.
The new GFS and Canadian model runs push the system a bit more SOUTH and EAST... Therefore, the center of Matthew goes into coastal North Carolina and to the Outer Banks and then out to sea. It is not closer to the coast. It is closer to a European solution. However, it is *NOT* considered a trend since it's one model run. A few other runs have made these changes and went back to the previous solution. Sometimes these models will make little shifts back and forth...and with a complicated pattern and a lot of moving parts, it is expected.
JaxBill
Footballguy
You should be fine to leave Saturday morning but that Friday arrival looks very iffy. Probably too late to have her fly into Tampa instead.
This storm has done a lot that nobody predicted. It was initially supposed to max out at a minor category 2 storm, then decided to go Super Saiyan (in a manner of speaking) and hit Category 5. Even now after running over the tallest mountains in Haiti, it's a category 4 storm, and when it moves into the Bahamas, well that's just more warm water to feed it.
Brady Marino
Footballguy
While it's never fun for the people that have to actually endure this hurricane, I will say that this has been a very captivating storm to track from afar. I knew it had potential when it was a large cluster of disorganized funk as it moved across the ocean, and it's gotten just about the perfect track and movement for it to grow into what it is (save for a bit of southwesterly shear when it was parked north of Columbia).
And yes, I too thought this would just wreck Hispaniola and go out to sea. We all did. Then Matthew parked itself in a quiet area and just waited and waited for the conditions north to change before making its move.
These things just fascinate the hell out of me, and my only experience with one was when I had to wait out Hurricane Elena in Tarpon Springs when I was three months old in 1985.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I told her earlier in the week to fly in Wednesday or Thursday night instead but she didn't listen. What an ###hole.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
As someone who was directly in the eye path of Charley in 2004, I can tell you it's a lot more fun tracking them from afar. Back then, I was a renter so I cared a lot less about structural damage than I do now owning my home. That storm was a frigging nightmare. No power for 10 days in summer in Florida is exceedingly un-fun.
The only bright side is the day of the storm (it hit at night,) I stayed at work until most people had left. Drove home and when I got there, I saw one available parking spot in my complex and pulled into it. I got out of the car, looked up at the large tree directly in front of the spot and felt weird about parking there. I got back in the car and drove around the lot until I found ONE other available spot out of the hundreds of spots in the complex. It was a good 1/4 mile or so walk from there to my building, but I stuck the car there and hoofed it. The next morning, I went outside and the first thing I saw was the Trans Am parked in the spot right in front of my door that I had abandoned - with a tree running down the middle of it. Totaled.
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shader
Footballguy
Les Cayes is the city most affected. Fortunately, Port-au-Prince was not really in the path and while they got bad weather and likely a TON of rain, they avoided the brunt. The Western-most part of Haiti doesn't look to be heavily populated, thank goodness.
Mjolnirs
Footballguy
They are fascinating to track and see how the weather patterns move it them. Having stood outside looking at the night sky during the eye of Hugo, from afar is a lot better.
I work from home, and my boss is not in this area. I let him know that I will most likely leave work around noon on Friday. I need to secure my house, my in-laws' house and then check on my parents and see if they need help. I'll be removing potential projectiles from the yards (like all of the small potted plants and yard decorations) and taking down swings, moving grills and anything else that could fly away. I'll then get to place sandbags in strategic locations around garages.
Tonight, to beat the last minute rush, we'll do a grocery run and pick up extra food that doesn't need refrigeration, top off gas in the vehicles, the gas cans and propane containers for the grill. Later tonight I'll probably fire up the generator and make sure we are good to go.
I work from home, and my boss is not in this area. I let him know that I will most likely leave work around noon on Friday. I need to secure my house, my in-laws' house and then check on my parents and see if they need help. I'll be removing potential projectiles from the yards (like all of the small potted plants and yard decorations) and taking down swings, moving grills and anything else that could fly away. I'll then get to place sandbags in strategic locations around garages.
Tonight, to beat the last minute rush, we'll do a grocery run and pick up extra food that doesn't need refrigeration, top off gas in the vehicles, the gas cans and propane containers for the grill. Later tonight I'll probably fire up the generator and make sure we are good to go.
shader
Footballguy
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016100412&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=200
48-hour ECMWF is quite west....like 50-60 miles
48-hour ECMWF is quite west....like 50-60 miles
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shader
Footballguy
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016100412&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=200
72-hour is showing a direct impact to Florida. This model run is very, very bad.
72-hour is showing a direct impact to Florida. This model run is very, very bad.
Haiti's immediate problem is with almost no trees to hold the soil down, any rain can trigger landslides. Couple that with Category 4 winds, no real infrastructure to speak of, and lingering effects of a cholera outbreak, this does not bode well.
JaxBill
Footballguy
Ouch. Worst part is that it goes up the coast slower, too. Taking it a full 24 hours to get from Melbourne to Savannah.
rustycolts
Footballguy
knowledge dropper
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
Again..it's just one run, and sometimes these computer models get some weird input and spit out nonsense..you can never take one run and consider it gospel. The NHC will be more conservative.
But the Euro is considered the most reliable run, and it just had a Florida impact, and then a Georgia impact, two strikes. It's a good run if you live in NC however.
Next up would be the NHC and the GFS in a few hours.
I personally find it concerning that the GFDL had a Florida landfall, directly followed by the Euro with a Florida landfall. With all these model runs, you wait and see what the subsequent runs do, and you of course trust the smart people at the NHC to put all this info together.
But there's more than enough data out anyone in the NHC cone to be on SUPER HIGH alert.
shader
Footballguy
Yeah it really fell apart after the 120 hour mark. It almost looks as if it looped back around and struck Florida a 3rd time. This run was very odd.
The strange thing about the run is that they announced that the info was going to be an hour late, then it comes out and strikes the USA twice, then makes a loop and strikes a 3rd time.
I wonder if the NHC will ignore this run, we'll know soon enough.
3C's
Footballguy
Edoardo Mazza
Well
Philippe Papin
My understanding is they had a mainframe crash.
That said, the models have trended west run after run. No one is safe. Official NHC tradk is still close to FL and landfall around NC/SC line. Remains to be seen if the adjust left at 5 or 11pm.
Brady Marino
Footballguy
Watching this radar for the last couple minutes and two things jump out at me:
1. The eye is making a comeback, and it's looking bigger than it ever did. Still pretty cloudy from the looks of things and this fact may become moot because...
2. I'm noticing a subtle shift to the left and it looks like it'll make a second landfall on Cuba's right-most tip as it starts its race towards Florida/Bahamas.
1. The eye is making a comeback, and it's looking bigger than it ever did. Still pretty cloudy from the looks of things and this fact may become moot because...
2. I'm noticing a subtle shift to the left and it looks like it'll make a second landfall on Cuba's right-most tip as it starts its race towards Florida/Bahamas.
tipsy mcstagger
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
Puts the NHC in a tough spot. They've got to deliver a major forecast, the "primetime" forecast, and their best model just either:
A) Crapped the bed
or
B) Delivered a Cat4 hurricane right into the heart of Florida.
I suspect they'll move the cone west a little bit, put the entire Southeastern coast on major alert, and have a track that resembles the GFS as a coast-hugging hurricane from Florida up to NC.
tipsy mcstagger
Footballguy
This thing is going to bring some stupid rain and surge along the entire eastern seaboard.
3C's
Footballguy
3C's
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Typically there is no traffic during hurricanes, they usually close the major roadways or issue advisories to stay off of them. Problems arise if there are downed trees or power lines after the storm passes through. That far inland, I doubt it will be that much of an issue.
