Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Only on I-4 typically. That road sucks. Of course, if you're coming to go to Disney, there's not much avoiding it.
I lived there for 9 years and I'll take it over NY/NJ traffic any day.
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*** Official 2016 AtlanticHurricane Season thread *** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Mjolnirs
- Start date
I lived there for 9 years and I'll take it over NY/NJ traffic any day.
shader
Footballguy
People never take the NHC "cone" seriously enough. The NHC does a great job of telling you where the hurricane is going to go. If you look at their cone, the latest Euro run stays inside the cone. But people tend to focus on the actual track. If you're in the cone, assume it's coming for you! That's basically what the NHC is telling you. Guys on the weather channel trying to "explain" the latest Euro run. There's not much to explain. It's a model that is just a little bit to the west of the previous run. The margin for error 3 days out is significant, so this shouldn't come as a shock to anyone.
Mjolnirs
Footballguy
The cone is the predicted track for the center of the storm. However, the storm itself is large, and seems to be getting larger.
Brady Marino
Footballguy
St. Lucie county government offices close tomorrow at noon, and shortly afterwards, I'm headed to Lakeland.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
shader
Footballguy
There is a level of "uncertainty" about any forecast. The cone indicates that uncertainty. If they put you in the cone, that means the hurricane can hit you.
greedygoat
Footballguy
Palm Beach County is closing schools Thursday and Friday.
Scoresman
Footballguy
This post combined with your avatar makes it sound like a dumb racist joke Trump is telling during a speech.
GoBirds
Footballguy
Ugh, was hoping we could dodge it. Looks like a category 2 when it gets here, seems like the worst we will have seen in a long time. Is that evacuation level or ride it out?
CGRdrJoe
Footballguy
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
I'll see your Atlanta and raise you Washington, DC
In any case - and back to the topic at hand - this thing is looking scary for a LOT of people. For those that end up in the danger zones, please heed the warnings.
shader
Footballguy
NHC moves the cone to the west. Their forecast lines up with the GFS and basically skirts the entire coast from Mid-Florida up to North Carolina. The Euro did seem to impact the track, now we'll wait for subsequent runs of the GFS (due in an hour) and the next Euro (due late tonight)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents
Key statement in their discussion:
2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallelto a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida throughSouth Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts thisfar in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track tothe left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a majorhurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keepall of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely takeanother day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the UnitedStates to clarify.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents
Key statement in their discussion:
2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallelto a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida throughSouth Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts thisfar in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track tothe left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a majorhurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keepall of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely takeanother day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the UnitedStates to clarify.
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Right. I find it puzzling that so many see the cone and think it's the whole storm, or those who don't realize just how big these storms can be.
That one guy
Footballguy
Seriously not a fan of this...in the middle of an already stressful sale of current house/purchase of new one and just not needing this sort of thing! On the eastern side of Orlando, 30 miles to the coast maybe. Need this thing to GTFO!
shader
Footballguy
GFS run is basically done. These new runs are looking worse for Florida and better for North Carolina. The GFS has Matthew going east and away from the shoreline just as it approaches the SC/NC border.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016100418&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=200
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016100418&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=200
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FUBAR
Footballguy
That's not good for those of us vacationing in hilton head right now.
PIK95
Footballguy
FUBAR
Footballguy
For those who have experienced this stuff before - Matthew won't hit here until Friday night if then. But the state of emergency begins 3pm tomorrow. We're thinking we should leave before then, but Wednesday and Thursday actually look decent. The cautious move of course is to leave tomorrow but to avoid traffic as much as possible, and it doesn't look bad until Friday night, would it be beyond stupid to leave Thursday instead? I know, it's only a day of vacation so we're not willing to risk safety but it just doesn't seem necessary to leave until Thursday.
In The Zone
Footballguy
Mjolnirs, I take it that you are gonna hunker down and ride it out. If so stay safe. I don't have a big house here in Lexington but we have a spare bedroom if things get iffy. I'm only 10 miles from Williams Brice as well.
shader
Footballguy
I've seen some chatter about mandantory evacuations tomorrow in Hilton Head. I'd imagine that you'd want to beat the rush whatever you do, but that stinks to lose a day or two of vacation.
shader
Footballguy
From an intensity level, it looks like the pressure has gone up about 4-5MB since the storm passed over the very high mountains of Western Haiti. The storm is currently making landfall in Cuba, which should knock it up a little further. After that, warm water and low wind shear all the way to the USA, which should allow for it to strengthen.
Models aren't all that good at forecasting intensity, so who knows what will happen.
Models aren't all that good at forecasting intensity, so who knows what will happen.
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James Daulton
Footballguy
It's times like these that I really miss TIS...
:(
:(
PIK95
Footballguy
shadyridr
Footballguy
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Supermarkets here are all completely out of water, canned food, bread, peanut butter... almost everything non-perishable. Empty shelves. People are preparing for the apocalypse.
GoBirds
Footballguy
New models looking potentially better from OBX up?
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Tropical-Storm-Matthew?map=ensmodel
I'm sure just teasing us until the next update.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Tropical-Storm-Matthew?map=ensmodel
I'm sure just teasing us until the next update.
rustycolts
Footballguy
I have worked for Publix for 25 years it happens every time.Always amazes me what people buy. Yogurt,Ice Cream all kinds of perishables they don't think about the power thing.Most of the time Publix will send out extra trucks so shelves should be restocked but that won't last long should probably get what you need early tomorrow or it may be too late.
shader
Footballguy
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents
11pm update from the NHC not a good one.
Basically, if this thing stays just offshore and holds structure together (as the NHC is currently forecasting), it can provide hurricane force winds over a massive area of land.
Think about what usually happens. A hurricane makes a "landing" in a specific 20-30 mile area and then weakens and is gone.
In this current scenario, the landings are brief, a large bulk of the hurricane stays over the water, and then the hurricane moves offshore and continues to slowly ride the natural coastline all the way to the Outer Banks.
I mean...we're talking major beach erosion from West Palm Beach, FL all the way up to the Outer Banks of North Carolina, under the NHC's latest forecasts....Any point in between could get the direct impact of a serious storm. From a financial perspective, you have to imagine this could be a nightmare scenario. You could have WPB, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Daytona Beach, Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Wilmington and the Outer Banks all affected with Hurricane force winds and a serious storm surge.
The hope is that this deviates slightly east just enough to stay far enough off-shore to deliver TS winds all the way up, instead of hurricane force winds. I suppose the other hope is that Cuba really weakens this thing (a distinct possibility, we'll know more in the morning) and that it never really gets its act together after that.
11pm update from the NHC not a good one.
Basically, if this thing stays just offshore and holds structure together (as the NHC is currently forecasting), it can provide hurricane force winds over a massive area of land.
Think about what usually happens. A hurricane makes a "landing" in a specific 20-30 mile area and then weakens and is gone.
In this current scenario, the landings are brief, a large bulk of the hurricane stays over the water, and then the hurricane moves offshore and continues to slowly ride the natural coastline all the way to the Outer Banks.
I mean...we're talking major beach erosion from West Palm Beach, FL all the way up to the Outer Banks of North Carolina, under the NHC's latest forecasts....Any point in between could get the direct impact of a serious storm. From a financial perspective, you have to imagine this could be a nightmare scenario. You could have WPB, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Daytona Beach, Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Wilmington and the Outer Banks all affected with Hurricane force winds and a serious storm surge.
The hope is that this deviates slightly east just enough to stay far enough off-shore to deliver TS winds all the way up, instead of hurricane force winds. I suppose the other hope is that Cuba really weakens this thing (a distinct possibility, we'll know more in the morning) and that it never really gets its act together after that.
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shader
Footballguy
If you have 17 minutes, go to this website: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ and listen to the video. He lays it out perfectly.
The NHC and computer models aren't all that good at forecasting intensity. I mean, they do a decent job, but they get surprised by intensity far more than they get surprised by the track. This can be positive or negative. It could blow into a massive Cat5 or it could weaken to a Cat 1 or 2.
In this case, the NHC in their discussion laid out what Levi (in that video above) said, there is basically no wind shear of any kind for the next 72 hours. So you have a hurricane that, once it clears Cuba, is basically in hot water for 2 days and no shear, and it's heading towards Florida. You'll notice both Levi and the NHC will be very careful not to say much more than "intensification is possible".
Heck, just look at what this storm did a few days ago. It went from a Tropical Storm to a Cat4 in 24-36 hours, something the models certainly didn't call for.
But in any event, you're right, the NHC has this as a major hurricane all the way up to the Georgia line.
Mjolnirs
Footballguy
I appreciate the offer.In The Zone said:
Right now hunkering down is the plan. My MIL lives with us, and she couldn't handle the time in a car. Add our three cats and the logistics of moving everyone would be too much trouble. My FIL is in a local rehab facility, and we learned tonight that the facility is being evacuated to Columbia.
Mjolnirs
Footballguy
FUBAR said:
google images of Hurricane Floyd Traffic. Hopefully the lane reversal system will make things flow better, but I would not wait too long to hit the road.
shader
Footballguy
GFS is out. Interesting run. It's closer to Florida coast and puts Florida right in the bulls-eye, specifically WPB up through the Space Coast.
It also begins to pull to the east earlier than previous runs, but these models aren't all that great after 3 days, so I'd take that with a grain of salt.
Hour or two away from the ECMWF, which should solidify the forecast for Florida and send a whole bunch of people into evacuation mode.
It also begins to pull to the east earlier than previous runs, but these models aren't all that great after 3 days, so I'd take that with a grain of salt.
Hour or two away from the ECMWF, which should solidify the forecast for Florida and send a whole bunch of people into evacuation mode.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Just Flew back to WPB tonight...holy ####. Gas lines are either 10 deep or they are out until tomorrow. Water gone off all shelves...Christ folks we aren't taking a direct hit....people are worked up about this one. Never seen folks prepare this far in advance.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I literally live on the beach, east of A1A very close to Juno Pier near the Bluffs. 75 mph winds predicted' storm about 50 miles off shore...how can they be so sure?
