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*****Official 2016 Kentucky Derby Thread***** (1 Viewer)

Dentist said:
I could design a horse racing circuit in about an hour that would sell a hell of a lot better than the product they are putting out there.   This is a potentially cool sport that could really resonate with a lot of people if you could just redesign it and put the same horses in enough consecutive races that they became household names and create some dynasties.

People like what's familiar, and if they never get to see the same horses from one race to the next let alone one season to the next, you never give the public a chance to get behind anyone.

I suppose if somehow you could make it more about the jockies, or the owners and turned them into household names that could draw more people in... but I really think it's more about the horses.
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Will  the favorite always win?

 
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Dentist said:
I could design a horse racing circuit in about an hour that would sell a hell of a lot better than the product they are putting out there.   This is a potentially cool sport that could really resonate with a lot of people if you could just redesign it and put the same horses in enough consecutive races that they became household names and create some dynasties.

People like what's familiar, and if they never get to see the same horses from one race to the next let alone one season to the next, you never give the public a chance to get behind anyone.

I suppose if somehow you could make it more about the jockies, or the owners and turned them into household names that could draw more people in... but I really think it's more about the horses.
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People get behind great horses. Crowds will come out to see the likes of Zenyatta. And match races or the winner take all event coming up will spark interest. Not saying the sport doesn't need fresh ideas. But horses aren't machines. They tell their trainers when they are ready to run, not the other way around. Plans go awry. They need plenty of space between races if they are good horses shooting for high purses. Some run 5 times a year.

Nobody comes to see a Bob Baffert, Ken Ramsay, or any jockey.  It's all about the horse.  A lot of owners went away when they lost their tax breaks.  Not enough horses now.  6 horse fields here vs 15-20 in APAC regions. It's a losing proposition.  Many tracks need slots to survive.

And if you really want to fix the sport, figure out a way to make it more fair for gamblers.  Think of what would happen in poker if they raked 25% of every pot  

 
OK, so the Belmont has lost a lot of it's luster with Nyquist out.  But I think we have a betting opportunity tomorrow gents.  This is exactly the opposite of the Preakness where there was a ton of speed.  Almost every horse wants to come off of it, most from far back.  Those horses will have no chance with a dawdling pace going 1 1/2 miles.  They will be staggering home and struggling to make up ground.  I haven't seen the PP's yet, but I'm pretty sure Stradivari is the play.  He's getting a ton of early action, just like in the Preakness and the home crowd will play him.  His odds will go up though.  IMO based on the race he ran in the Preakness he stands out on the front end.

Exaggerator will be overbet, is getting back on dry land and Kent D coming off of rehab.  That last parts troubles me a lot.  Kent is great when sober, but he can go ice ice cold when on the sauce.  Should still run well, but the race shape is not in his favor (can lay closer though, may even be 2nd early) and he's not getting mud.  Wouldn't be shocked to see Stradivari win by open lengths. 

 
Judge Smails said:
OK, so the Belmont has lost a lot of it's luster with Nyquist out.  But I think we have a betting opportunity tomorrow gents.  This is exactly the opposite of the Preakness where there was a ton of speed.  Almost every horse wants to come off of it, most from far back.  Those horses will have no chance with a dawdling pace going 1 1/2 miles.  They will be staggering home and struggling to make up ground.  I haven't seen the PP's yet, but I'm pretty sure Stradivari is the play.  He's getting a ton of early action, just like in the Preakness and the home crowd will play him.  His odds will go up though.  IMO based on the race he ran in the Preakness he stands out on the front end.

Exaggerator will be overbet, is getting back on dry land and Kent D coming off of rehab.  That last parts troubles me a lot.  Kent is great when sober, but he can go ice ice cold when on the sauce.  Should still run well, but the race shape is not in his favor (can lay closer though, may even be 2nd early) and he's not getting mud.  Wouldn't be shocked to see Stradivari win by open lengths. 
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Going to put all my money on Stardivari. After betting the dogs, that could be around 2 dollars or 1,000. Good luck to everyone!

 
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I'm on Brody's cause, suddenbreakingnews & Govenor Malibu across the board with Stradivari, Creator & Exaggerator (saver) in exotics.

 
Judge Smails said:
OK, so the Belmont has lost a lot of it's luster with Nyquist out.  But I think we have a betting opportunity tomorrow gents.  This is exactly the opposite of the Preakness where there was a ton of speed.  Almost every horse wants to come off of it, most from far back.  Those horses will have no chance with a dawdling pace going 1 1/2 miles.  They will be staggering home and struggling to make up ground.  I haven't seen the PP's yet, but I'm pretty sure Stradivari is the play.  He's getting a ton of early action, just like in the Preakness and the home crowd will play him.  His odds will go up though.  IMO based on the race he ran in the Preakness he stands out on the front end.

Exaggerator will be overbet, is getting back on dry land and Kent D coming off of rehab.  That last parts troubles me a lot.  Kent is great when sober, but he can go ice ice cold when on the sauce.  Should still run well, but the race shape is not in his favor (can lay closer though, may even be 2nd early) and he's not getting mud.  Wouldn't be shocked to see Stradivari win by open lengths. 
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Good write up. :thumbup:

Little speed with a ton of closers bumping into each other should set up somebody near the front. Your 5 seems to be the best of those.

 
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