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Official 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread - Sebestian (1 Viewer)

Mjolnirs

Mjolnirs

Footballguy
It is early for this, but the damn weather guy just showed a weather disturbance with a 10% chance of development.
It's not much of a chance, but enough to make go ahead and start this thread.
The season officially starts June 1st

2019 Names
Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dorian
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Imelda
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo 
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

 
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My friends house still isn’t repaired from Michael. They’ve moved into their camper in their yard. I think my in-laws are fully restored. I’m hoping for a quiet year like after 2004. 

 
A lot of forecasts showing an average number of storms predicted for the year.  There is a slight El Nino (-> more Atlantic wind shear -> fewer storms) forecast for now but a lot of uncertainty over whether it might strength later in the year (good), or even weaken towards a La Nina (-> less Atlantic wind shear -> more storms).

 
In the process of finishing our hurricane shelter (i.e. house in South Florida). We bailed to Panama City with the last hurricane that came through, Irma in 2017, but watching this house get built and the amount of cement and steel rebar that went into the foundation, walls and floors, I'm less interested in leaving now :oldunsure:  unless it's an ###-kicking Cat-5. 

 
Senor Schmutzig said:
In the process of finishing our hurricane shelter (i.e. house in South Florida). We bailed to Panama City with the last hurricane that came through, Irma in 2017, but watching this house get built and the amount of cement and steel rebar that went into the foundation, walls and floors, I'm less interested in leaving now :oldunsure:  unless it's an ###-kicking Cat-5. 
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Made it through Michael ok? 

 
Senor Schmutzig said:
I am in Miami so there wasn't any impact from Michael. We are building at 14 feet above sea level which is pretty much the highest point in Miami. Don't have to worry about sea level rise or storm surge. Who knows, we may be oceanfront in 50 years. 
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Oh, gotcha. Thought you meant you were in PC. Good luck with building your fortress. 

 
Latest models keep pushing this potential storm West. Looks to appear off Alabama coast then strengthen and loop towards Texas.

Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

 
Man those models taking it up along the Mississippi is bad news  those folks sure don't need anything that could cause more flooding.

 
rustycolts said:
Man those models taking it up along the Mississippi is bad news  those folks sure don't need anything that could cause more flooding.
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Yep, thankfully our local rivers have fallen a good bit the last couple of weeks, but I expect they will shoot right back up this weekend if we get anything close to what is being predicted currently. 

 
Right now it looks like a Cat 1 at landfall.  But it also looks like it could be slowing down it's westward movement, which could mean a further east landfall and slightly more time for intensification.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Right now it looks like a Cat 1 at landfall.  But it also looks like it could be slowing down it's westward movement, which could mean a further east landfall and slightly more time for intensification.
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Horrible situation with this thing but it's good to see you back in the FFA during this hurricane season.

:thumbup:

 
Either the UKMET is genius or off its rocker.  (Usually it's the latter, but not always.) 

Every model is bunched together sending it into LA.  UKMET has it hitting Houston.  :confused:

 
NWS meteorologist predicting up to TWENTY FIVE inches of rain in some localized areas. And 20 in widespread areas. It doesn't matter if it's a depression, storm, or hurricane at this point. There's not much of a way to prepare for 20-25 inches of rain. There's going to be some devastation. Here's to hoping it's minimal and in mostly unpopulated areas. 

 
Nathan R. Jessep said:
NWS meteorologist predicting up to TWENTY FIVE inches of rain in some localized areas. And 20 in widespread areas. It doesn't matter if it's a depression, storm, or hurricane at this point. There's not much of a way to prepare for 20-25 inches of rain. There's going to be some devastation. Here's to hoping it's minimal and in mostly unpopulated areas. 
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Yikes. Trade in your MJ card for an Ark.

 
Nathan R. Jessep said:
NWS meteorologist predicting up to TWENTY FIVE inches of rain in some localized areas. And 20 in widespread areas. It doesn't matter if it's a depression, storm, or hurricane at this point. There's not much of a way to prepare for 20-25 inches of rain. There's going to be some devastation. Here's to hoping it's minimal and in mostly unpopulated areas. 
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One of the biggest issues with how we talk about tropical systems is the antiquated Category system.  There are a couple places out there trying new things, but Categories are terrible.

Reason why is all it does it rate the wind speed.  But water is the deadliest part of a tropical system, whether it be rainfall or storm surge.  In a case like this, people will hear "Tropical Storm" Barry and think, "No big deal."  But the fact is this is going to be much worse than a storm that has 120mph winds, affects an area 40 miles wide along the shore, and drops 5 inches of rain.  But people would be much more worried about that Cat 3 hurricane than this TS.

 
TheIronSheik said:
One of the biggest issues with how we talk about tropical systems is the antiquated Category system.  There are a couple places out there trying new things, but Categories are terrible.

Reason why is all it does it rate the wind speed.  But water is the deadliest part of a tropical system, whether it be rainfall or storm surge.  In a case like this, people will hear "Tropical Storm" Barry and think, "No big deal."  But the fact is this is going to be much worse than a storm that has 120mph winds, affects an area 40 miles wide along the shore, and drops 5 inches of rain.  But people would be much more worried about that Cat 3 hurricane than this TS.
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Yep, exactly. And the report I read, that seemed to be what they were trying to convey to the public. That just because this isn't a hurricane, won't mean it's not going to wreck shop. Just hope people are listening. 

 
Nathan R. Jessep said:
Yep, exactly. And the report I read, that seemed to be what they were trying to convey to the public. That just because this isn't a hurricane, won't mean it's not going to wreck shop. Just hope people are listening. 
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They should come up with the Big Mutha####a Scale:

BMF 1: Not bad. You can stay home and eat Cheetos and drink your beer. Enough rain to water your plants.

BMF 2: It's gonna be windy. Do what you did in BMF 1 but tie down your patio furniture and roll up the car windows.

BMF 3: Go to the store before the rest of the coon-asses get all the bread, milk, and booze.

BMF 4: Batten down the hatches. Fill the tubs with water. Make "Rescue Me" signs. 

BMF 5: GET THE FOOK OUT!

 
TheIronSheik said:
Either the UKMET is genius or off its rocker.  (Usually it's the latter, but not always.) 

Every model is bunched together sending it into LA.  UKMET has it hitting Houston.  :confused:
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TABS track looks more interesting

 
Weather Channel desperately trying to gin up the drama on Barry. Looks like a dry air shear coming in from AL is choking it and now they are talking about the rain.

 
ffldrew said:
Weather Channel desperately trying to gin up the drama on Barry. Looks like a dry air shear coming in from AL is choking it and now they are talking about the rain.
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Calling it: the New Orleans metro area is in the clear from Barry. If something is going to happen, it’ll be worst 50 miles to the west.

 
Doug B said:
Calling it: the New Orleans metro area is in the clear from Barry. If something is going to happen, it’ll be worst 50 miles to the west.
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Rain is the problem.  Those huge swaths of rain to the SE of the center are going to be rolling over NO for two days.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
One of the biggest issues with how we talk about tropical systems is the antiquated Category system.  There are a couple places out there trying new things, but Categories are terrible.

Reason why is all it does it rate the wind speed.  But water is the deadliest part of a tropical system, whether it be rainfall or storm surge.  In a case like this, people will hear "Tropical Storm" Barry and think, "No big deal."  But the fact is this is going to be much worse than a storm that has 120mph winds, affects an area 40 miles wide along the shore, and drops 5 inches of rain.  But people would be much more worried about that Cat 3 hurricane than this TS.
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I get you, GB.  Unfortunately, any replacement system may confuse the general public...at least that's my fear.

 
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