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Official 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread - Sebestian (1 Viewer)

One thing to keep in mind here, too, is that there were some places that did receive 15+ inches of rain.  It just wasn't as widespread as the models showed.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
I was just pointing out it's odd to say don't listen to Roker, but listen to the Mayor.  Because, honestly, I think both are secondary people to listen to.  Listen to your local NWS branch and local mets.  Those are the guys everyone should be listening to.  Not the mayor.  Not the weather guy in NYC.  Not the random guy on the internet message board.  Local mets should be everyone's source.  They others may mean well, but they aren't the people with the greatest knowledge.
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I caught DirecTV's coverage of local stations over the weekend. One of the local mets said that in normal circumstances, everyone does their own forecast. However, in a case like this, everyone wants a uniform forecast so that there is no confusion with the public.  IIRC, they all defer to NWS.

 
TheIronSheik said:
The dry air was there [entering Barry from the northeast], but the models were taking it into consideration.
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Our local paper joins the fray -- from the Sunday 7/14 article Why Hurricane Barry failed to live up to its threat as a record rainmaker and flood producer:

But there was another major confounding factor that was not well read by the models: the dry air that filtered across the frontal boundary and disrupted the formation of thunderstorms on the northern and eastern parts of Barry’s circular low pressure system.

“Typically, a tropical storm will have a lot of moisture, rainfall and wind on its entire eastern half,” [said Ben Schott, meteorologist, National Weather Service, Slidell LA]. “But as the drier air kept pushing into Barry, it limited its thunderstorm growth to the southern side of the storm, which is pretty unusual.”

“None of the modeling showed the dry air sustained in entering the storm the way it did,” Schott said. The models kept getting it wrong on Thursday, Friday and even on Saturday, he said.
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Tom Servo said:
I caught DirecTV's coverage of local stations over the weekend. One of the local mets said that in normal circumstances, everyone does their own forecast. However, in a case like this, everyone wants a uniform forecast so that there is no confusion with the public.  IIRC, they all defer to NWS.
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I wonder if this is fairly recent protocol. Locals ( @SaintsInDome2006; @Henry Ford; @tipsy mcstagger; @Nathan R. Jessep ) may remember in 1998, when WWL's Nash Roberts went against other local meteorologists and correctly predicted where Hurricane Georges ended up going. 

 
Doug B said:
Tom Servo said:
I caught DirecTV's coverage of local stations over the weekend. One of the local mets said that in normal circumstances, everyone does their own forecast. However, in a case like this, everyone wants a uniform forecast so that there is no confusion with the public.  IIRC, they all defer to NWS.
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I wonder if this is fairly recent protocol. Locals ( @SaintsInDome2006; @Henry Ford; @tipsy mcstagger; @Nathan R. Jessep ) may remember in 1998, when WWL's Nash Roberts went against other local meteorologists and correctly predicted where Hurricane Georges ended up going. 
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I don't remember that actually though I do remember Georges. That might have been Nash's last rodeo though.

I don't think it's surprising to hear this but then what's the point if this is the course when you need it most. I'd rather everyone defer on the weekend rain forecast and really do their own analysis when the chips are down.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
I don't remember that actually though I do remember Georges. That might have been Nash's last rodeo though.

I don't think it's surprising to hear this but then what's the point if this is the course when you need it most. I'd rather everyone defer on the weekend rain forecast and really do their own analysis when the chips are down.
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If 5 different outlets put out 5 different forecasts for an approaching hurricane, it would be a catastrophe.

 
For every met that posts a different forecast than the NWS and gets it correct, there are 50 other services out there making different calls and getting it dead wrong.

If you want to veer from the NWS, you should say, "Here's what the NWS is saying and you should take it seriously.  But I also believe there's a chance it might not be that forecast, and here's why..."  When lives are in danger, it's not the time to be trying to make a name for yourself and putting a completely different forecast up then the NWS. 

 
TheIronSheik said:
If 5 different outlets put out 5 different forecasts for an approaching hurricane, it would be a catastrophe.
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Eh but we have 4 local outlets that sell just that. Ch. 8 calls itself "The Weather Authority" and centered their whole rebranding and rebuild around that.

And as noted above we used to have that anyway.

New Orleanians / Louisianans are pretty savvy and jaded about this stuff. The one thing you don't want is the guy in a Katrina situation telling people to stay put. So I'd agree there, but no one needs 100% of the same wrong prediction across the board either.

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
New Orleanians / Louisianans are pretty savvy and jaded about this stuff.
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Yep, this. You develop a "spidey sense" about this stuff living down here. After watching Barry struggle to develop through Wednesday of last week, at no point did Barry concern me aside from making preparations to be potentially without power from loose tree branches blowing down into power lines. But as far as immediate-neighborhood flooding, worrying about personal safety, worrying about getting around afterwards? No concerns.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
I mean if Nash fing Roberts was on with his black pen this weekend would I have watched him to the exclusion of all others? Hell yes I would.
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Cross-posting myself:

In the 1970s, Nash Roberts would have looked at all that dry air and told New Orleanians "This won't amount to anything. Shelter in place, keep your flashlights and potted meat handy, and relax". Instead, today you get Jim Cantore running down here hyping up every raindrop, puddle, and swaying branch.
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Doug B said:
Yep, this. You develop a "spidey sense" about this stuff living down here. After watching Barry struggle to develop through Wednesday of last week, at no point did Barry concern me aside from making preparations to be potentially without power from loose tree branches blowing down into power lines. But as far as immediate-neighborhood flooding, worrying about personal safety, worrying about getting around afterwards? No concerns.
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I don't know if you do, but I say this to everyone, so please don't take this offensively:  If you don't understand weather, when it comes to possible life or death situations, don't rely on your "spidey sense."  There are hundreds of pro mets out there who have millions of dollars worth of equipment that can help them forecast a possible solution.  And they still didn't get it 100% right.  

People who live along the coast (and I was one of them) love to think they understand storms because they've dealt with a lot of them.  But as I said before (many times), no two storms are alike.

If nothing else, and you want to decide to ride it out, that's your call.  But please do everyone else a favor and DO NOT EVER TELL ANYONE ELSE TO NOT LISTEN TO THE PROS.  It's fine if you want to put your life at risk.  Do not persuade others to do the same on your "spidey sense."  Hundreds of people die every year because they "lived through worse storms."  

 
TheIronSheik said:
I don't know if you do, but I say this to everyone, so please don't take this offensively:  If you don't understand weather, when it comes to possible life or death situations, don't rely on your "spidey sense."  There are hundreds of pro mets out there who have millions of dollars worth of equipment that can help them forecast a possible solution.  And they still didn't get it 100% right.  

People who live along the coast (and I was one of them) love to think they understand storms because they've dealt with a lot of them.  But as I said before (many times), no two storms are alike.

If nothing else, and you want to decide to ride it out, that's your call.  But please do everyone else a favor and DO NOT EVER TELL ANYONE ELSE TO NOT LISTEN TO THE PROS.  It's fine if you want to put your life at risk.  Do not persuade others to do the same on your "spidey sense."  Hundreds of people die every year because they "lived through worse storms."  
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The bolded is the lynchpin. True life-or-death situations from tropical weather at any one given place are simply not that frequent.

I make that point to underlay another point: When things really do get bad enough to where danger to life and limb is apparent ... the local meteorologists flip a switch and make their warnings much more definitive and precise. That's only happened twice in my adult life: (a) unanimously for for Hurricane Katrina and (b) by a majority of local meteorologists for Hurricane Georges (1998) with Nash Roberts dissenting.

For every other storm approach, there's hedging. A whole lot of hedging. "If" you live in low-lying areas. "If" the pumps don't work reliably in your neighborhood. "If" the pumps are started too late, or not at all. And so on. Storms spoken of that way are "regular" storms that every long-time resident has been through. The biggest two concerns with those is shallow house flooding and extended power outages. Threats to personal comfort rather than personal safety.

There are a small number of tough guys and hard-head who say they'll never evacuate no matter what. But they're really few in number and not influential -- the types that willfully stayed for Katrina (not stuck in town by circumstance, poverty, etc.) are usually seen as a little looney.

So there's really no need to worry especially about New Orleanians and the potential failure of their collective "spider sense". It's not about thumbing one's nose at weather authority and it's not about being tough, strong, or "better than" the storm. It's about pattern recognition, the same drill run over and over again many times. The same radar profiles and storm tracks (not exactly the same, but you take my point). The same tiny towns closer to the coast that take water whenever a fishing captain drops his beer in the Gulf ... those places always evacuate way early. New Orleanians take note and keep an ear to the news. Part of the pattern.

When the pattern is broken, we'll generally know and shift into another gear and make arrangements to leave. Otherwise. IMHO it's fair game for us to snipe at the sensationalist coverage of storms like Barry. Snipe at the non-expert media coverage that is -- don't mistake that for sniping at legit meteorological experts. In short, while we may not be working meteorologists ... regarding personal safety in tropical weather, we down here collectively know what we're doing.

 
Doug B said:
The bolded is the lynchpin. True life-or-death situations from tropical weather at any one given place are simply not that frequent.

I make that point to underlay another point: When things really do get bad enough to where danger to life and limb is apparent ... the local meteorologists flip a switch and make their warnings much more definitive and precise. That's only happened twice in my adult life: (a) unanimously for for Hurricane Katrina and (b) by a majority of local meteorologists for Hurricane Georges (1998) with Nash Roberts dissenting.

For every other storm approach, there's hedging. A whole lot of hedging. "If" you live in low-lying areas. "If" the pumps don't work reliably in your neighborhood. "If" the pumps are started too late, or not at all. And so on. Storms spoken of that way are "regular" storms that every long-time resident has been through. The biggest two concerns with those is shallow house flooding and extended power outages. Threats to personal comfort rather than personal safety.

There are a small number of tough guys and hard-head who say they'll never evacuate no matter what. But they're really few in number and not influential -- the types that willfully stayed for Katrina (not stuck in town by circumstance, poverty, etc.) are usually seen as a little looney.

So there's really no need to worry especially about New Orleanians and the potential failure of their collective "spider sense". It's not about thumbing one's nose at weather authority and it's not about being tough, strong, or "better than" the storm. It's about pattern recognition, the same drill run over and over again many times. The same radar profiles and storm tracks (not exactly the same, but you take my point). The same tiny towns closer to the coast that take water whenever a fishing captain drops his beer in the Gulf ... those places always evacuate way early. New Orleanians take note and keep an ear to the news. Part of the pattern.

When the pattern is broken, we'll generally know and shift into another gear and make arrangements to leave. Otherwise. IMHO it's fair game for us to snipe at the sensationalist coverage of storms like Barry. Snipe at the non-expert media coverage that is -- don't mistake that for sniping at legit meteorological experts. In short, while we may not be working meteorologists ... regarding personal safety in tropical weather, we down here collectively know what we're doing.
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Great point. There's a big difference between a one in a lifetime event like Katrina and the relative popcorn fart of Barry. Nobody's going to ignore the very serious predictions, but the smaller, not as dangerous stuff has a lot of local intuition behind it as to how they react.

 
If they are calling for 20 inches of rain and your gut tells you it's not going to happen and you have no weather knowledge, again, that's fine.  Just don't tell other people not to listen to warnings.

People die everyday from weather.  I posted in the other thread that just last week a pregnant lady and her 6 year old son died in rising flood waters when a thunderstorm dropped 5 inches in 90 minutes up here by my house.  That's not a "once in a lifetime event."  The mere fact that you're referring to Barry as something that doesn't need to be taken seriously is alarming.  Again, news coverage of tropical systems are filled with people being rescued from certain death and telling the reporter, "We've weathered bigger storms so we thought we'd be OK with this one."

You are allowed to treat weather however you want and you can do whatever you want to prepare.  But don't give other people advice on how to act to an approaching storm.  That's all I ask.

 
Tom Servo said:
Great point. There's a big difference between a one in a lifetime event like Katrina and the relative popcorn fart of Barry. Nobody's going to ignore the very serious predictions, but the smaller, not as dangerous stuff has a lot of local intuition behind it as to how they react.
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As I had pointed out before the storm, Barry had a chance to be almost as catastrophic as a Katrina type hurricane.  People get caught up in the name and (TS v. Hurricane) and let their guard down.  But if it would have played out like the models had predicted, you would have seen something similar to Harvey in Houston.  And all of those people who were rescued from their house all said the same thing:  "We didn't think it would be this bad."

 
TheIronSheik said:
If they are calling for 20 inches of rain and your gut tells you it's not going to happen and you have no weather knowledge, again, that's fine.  Just don't tell other people not to listen to warnings.
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It's not my gut, and it wasn't my gut with Barry specifically regarding the New Orleans area. It was specific bits of information coming from meteorologists combined with knowledge of how storms typically form and behave. You had to read between the hedges, and you had to look past the "New Orleans gotta evacuate NOW!" sensationalism, but the information necessary for New Orleanians to come to a sense of ease about Barry was available and disseminated by last Thursday evening.

We'll have to come to a common definition of "take seriously". When Barry was still Invest 92 back on Sunday 7/7 - Tuesday 7/9, "taking it seriously" meant watching the forecasts and gathering information. It did not mean packing the car right then and there and leaving town. When Wednesday's news of dry air choking the system came out, "taking it seriously" meant continuing to watch and gather information -- mainly checking to see if the dry air intake was being maintained, and checking on the storm's movement. Also on Wednesday, I took Barry seriously by countenancing an extended power outage and thus stocked up on non-perishable groceries, batteries, and fresh water -- preparations to shelter in place in our X-zone neighborhood (more information -- I know our immediate area's flood risk).

So Thursday comes, and Barry finally limps to TS strength, but keeps drifting westward and keeps taking in dry air and keeps failing to form an eyewall. It was also noted by then that the rainfall amounts observed over the Gulf reduced significantly when those same bands passed over land. Still keep watching, of course ... but IMHO by Thursday evening the threat to New Orleans was reasonably known to be significantly minimized, even if a pro meteorologist would never guarantee it on air.

Please keep in mind that my focus here -- as was much of the media's -- is and was on the outcome in the New Orleans area. I never said nowhere, anywhere would get any kind of real effect from Barry. Henry Ford and I were discussing the rain models last Thursday night and during the day Friday in this thread -- models that I linked to in this thread for others to view. I never wrote "Those models are BS!" I wrote that those models showed that Barry would spare New Orleans of city-wide flood-event rainfall and that the worst impacts would be some distance west of the city. Repeating on the theme from above, those models were yet more information -- not gut -- leading to a sense of ease specifically for the New Orleans area.

...

The story of the pregnant lady and her son losing their life in a flash flood is crushingly sad, to be sure. But those kinds of situations are categorically different than an impending tropical storm. That kind of flash flood doesn't give you three or four days notice. You can't watch it progressively and see what's coming. What happened to that lady and her son was more akin to a meteor strike -- just cruel fate.

 
Doug B said:
You develop a "spidey sense" about this stuff living down here.
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Now that I'm reading this ... "spidey sense" does imply more "gut feeling" or "reaching a conclusion without information". That definitely isn't right. I guess the sense of what tropical storm systems will do can be said to be informally learned through the accumulation of experience combined with in-the-now information coming in about a given storm. It is an evidence-based and a precedence-based sense to be sure.

 
Doug B said:
It's not my gut, and it wasn't my gut with Barry specifically regarding the New Orleans area. It was specific bits of information coming from meteorologists combined with knowledge of how storms typically form and behave. You had to read between the hedges, and you had to look past the "New Orleans gotta evacuate NOW!" sensationalism, but the information necessary for New Orleanians to come to a sense of ease about Barry was available and disseminated by last Thursday evening.

We'll have to come to a common definition of "take seriously". When Barry was still Invest 92 back on Sunday 7/7 - Tuesday 7/9, "taking it seriously" meant watching the forecasts and gathering information. It did not mean packing the car right then and there and leaving town. When Wednesday's news of dry air choking the system came out, "taking it seriously" meant continuing to watch and gather information -- mainly checking to see if the dry air intake was being maintained, and checking on the storm's movement. Also on Wednesday, I took Barry seriously by countenancing an extended power outage and thus stocked up on non-perishable groceries, batteries, and fresh water -- preparations to shelter in place in our X-zone neighborhood (more information -- I know our immediate area's flood risk).

So Thursday comes, and Barry finally limps to TS strength, but keeps drifting westward and keeps taking in dry air and keeps failing to form an eyewall. It was also noted by then that the rainfall amounts observed over the Gulf reduced significantly when those same bands passed over land. Still keep watching, of course ... but IMHO by Thursday evening the threat to New Orleans was reasonably known to be significantly minimized, even if a pro meteorologist would never guarantee it on air.

Please keep in mind that my focus here -- as was much of the media's -- is and was on the outcome in the New Orleans area. I never said nowhere, anywhere would get any kind of real effect from Barry. Henry Ford and I were discussing the rain models last Thursday night and during the day Friday in this thread -- models that I linked to in this thread for others to view. I never wrote "Those models are BS!" I wrote that those models showed that Barry would spare New Orleans of city-wide flood-event rainfall and that the worst impacts would be some distance west of the city. Repeating on the theme from above, those models were yet more information -- not gut -- leading to a sense of ease specifically for the New Orleans area.

...

The story of the pregnant lady and her son losing their life in a flash flood is crushingly sad, to be sure. But those kinds of situations are categorically different than an impending tropical storm. That kind of flash flood doesn't give you three or four days notice. You can't watch it progressively and see what's coming. What happened to that lady and her son was more akin to a meteor strike -- just cruel fate.
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Look, this will be my last post on this because I don't want to harp on it and I don't want us to argue about stupid stuff, GB.  But from what I'm just reading with what you write, I worry about where you think your knowledge is and where it actually is.  Again, pro mets up until landfall were thinking flooding rains.  Life threatening flooding rain.  And they actually occurred in some areas, just not as widespread as thought.  That's pretty much lottery odds of which areas received the 20 inches of rain.  

You keep mentioning that it didn't form an eyewall and I keep telling you it was never going to form an eyewall.  TS's don't have eyewalls.  Most Cat 1 hurricanes have trouble forming an eyewall.  They are comma shaped, with the eastern side having the most clouds and then it tapering south like a comma.  

And I'm not trying to single you out, GB.  Every year mets try to figure out ways to get across the fact that no two storms are alike.  So if you look at radar and see something that looks like something you've seen before, it does not mean it will have the same outcome.  If it were that easy, hurricanes would be easy to forecast.

Tropical systems usually give up to 3 to 5 days of warning.  They usually get actual news coverage and not just weather coverage.  Media runs with it and it's plastered all over pretty much anything you look at 48 hours before impacts are felt.  And with all of that, people die with almost every single storm.  

I've lived on the coast.  I know how people love to wear a badge of honor about how they survived storms and how they knew it wouldn't be as bad as the weatherman made it out to be.  It's crazy.

And I want to reiterate:  I'm not telling you what to do during a storm.  All I ask is don't tell others to ignore advice of the NWS.  Because while you may come away unharmed, the people you told it wouldn't be so bad might not be so lucky.  Don't be the reason other people lose their lives or loved ones.

I know I can sometimes come across angered or slightly bothered when discussing this type of stuff, but I just don't want people to get hurt.  It doesn't mean I don't still have mad love for you and Tom Servo.  :bye:

 
TheIronSheik said:
All I ask is don't tell others to ignore advice of the NWS.
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Is it meaningful that for the New Orleans area specifically ... the NWS advice was at no point "evacuate now"? The sternest warning for New Orleans from the NWS was something on the order of "it might flood in your neighborhood** if your neighborhood is one that usually floods."

**And "flood" itself, I guess, can be a loaded word. The same word can be used to describe 3 inches covering a street, and also 30 feet covering two-story homes. Around here, if you say "[some part of town] flooded", it will be understood to mean that part of town took on roughly the usual amount of water it normally takes on. Almost never does, say, "The Garden District flooded" mean that whole structures were overtaken and hundreds of lives were lost. And that's the context in which NWS notifications and other official flood warnings are taken by locals.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Again, pro mets up until landfall were thinking flooding rains.  Life threatening flooding rain.
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Yes, but for where? Remember, I'm talking about the N.O. area specifically, not about all of Louisiana.

Barry's landfall was early Saturday afternoon. Precipitation models by then had consistently shown for 36 hours that SE Louisiana east of Lake Maurepas was going to get at worst a manageable rainfall with minimal, incidental flooding (from possible pump outages more than sheer rainfall rate).

 
Doug B said:
Is it meaningful that for the New Orleans area specifically ... the NWS advice was at no point "evacuate now"? The sternest warning for New Orleans from the NWS was something on the order of "it might flood in your neighborhood** if your neighborhood is one that usually floods."

**And "flood" itself, I guess, can be a loaded word. The same word can be used to describe 3 inches covering a street, and also 30 feet covering two-story homes. Around here, if you say "[some part of town] flooded", it will be understood to mean that part of town took on roughly the usual amount of water it normally takes on. Almost never does, say, "The Garden District flooded" mean that whole structures were overtaken and hundreds of lives were lost. And that's the context in which NWS notifications and other official flood warnings are taken by locals.
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I never said anything about evacuating.  In fact, in an earlier post, I told you I agreed that evacuating was not necessary.  Not sure why you're still harping on that.

 
TheIronSheik said:
There are local mets in LA right now who are probably pleading with citizens to evacuate and to get out and to higher ground.  And a large amount of people are watching and thinking, "Pfft.  Look at this idiot trying to scare up ratings."  And this will be their last 24 hours alive.
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IronSheik, I was thinking somewhat about posts like this one from last Friday morning. Admittedly, you wrote "local mets in LA", not "local mets in New Orleans".

I was also thinking about a more general concept that I read online from time to time, whenever "New Orleans" and "hurricanes" are brought up in the same discussion: "Why don't they just evacuate way early? Why don't they leave? Why was anyone still there? Why? Why? Why?"  :rolleyes:

Back to your quote: Even on the New Orleans TV/radio stations ... when local officials (informed by NWS and NOAA) called for voluntary and mandatory evacuations for certain towns and areas that are outside of the levee system, the NOLA media dutifully passed the notifications on to the public. And locals don't take it as BS or as some idiots trying to scare up ratings. People in Grand Isle, LA and Venice, LA and Cocodrie, LA and places like that south and southeast of New Orleans ... yeah, they typically evacuate at least once every other year for some storm or another. But it's old hat for residents in those towns that don't have flood protection. New Orleanians simultaneously understand (a) that such evacuation calls are things those towns have to do and (b) they say little about the direct risks to New Orleans absent further information.

 
Doug B said:
IronSheik, I was thinking somewhat about posts like this one from last Friday morning. Admittedly, you wrote "local mets in LA", not "local mets in New Orleans".

I was also thinking about a more general concept that I read online from time to time, whenever "New Orleans" and "hurricanes" are brought up in the same discussion: "Why don't they just evacuate way early? Why don't they leave? Why was anyone still there? Why? Why? Why?"  :rolleyes:

Back to your quote: Even on the New Orleans TV/radio stations ... when local officials (informed by NWS and NOAA) called for voluntary and mandatory evacuations for certain towns and areas that are outside of the levee system, the NOLA media dutifully passed the notifications on to the public. And locals don't take it as BS or as some idiots trying to scare up ratings. People in Grand Isle, LA and Venice, LA and Cocodrie, LA and places like that south and southeast of New Orleans ... yeah, they typically evacuate at least once every other year for some storm or another. But it's old hat for residents in those towns that don't have flood protection. New Orleanians simultaneously understand (a) that such evacuation calls are things those towns have to do and (b) they say little about the direct risks to New Orleans absent further information.
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Ok

 
June and July are usually GOM tropical systems.  End of July to August is usually the doldrums of the tropics.  Gulf goes quiet and Saharan sand keeps the Atlantic too dry to produce anything significant.  But we are entering peak season now.  I believe September 10th or 11th is the actual peak.  But we should start seeing the Cape Verde season begin in the next week or so.  I thought I heard them say that the sand is still pretty prevalent right now.   

 
There has been lots of sand blown out to sea which has helped.  That seems to be dissapating now. Which doesn't. 

 
:blackdot:  for another season.  I am not deployable for a major event until after 9/24, so being the weather jinx I am, I'll say TD5 gets steered out to the Atlantic.  The jinx is real as the day I came available in '17, Irma hit and last year Michael hit just 2 days after I came available.  So, beware of late September Hurricanes.  More proof I'm the jinx; I was sent to MN for a month to work hail and wind.  I just the 30 days I was there, 6 more damaging storms hit MN and one carried over in to WI causing significant damages there....

 
Well, this may be the first test for the fortress that we just built to hopefully withstand these bad boys. Supposed to be moving this in weekend. Live in Miami. Feel much better about sweating it out in the house once I saw how much steel and concrete we put into it. 

 
Local meteorologist who has been pretty accurate over the years saying that wind shear will more than likely rip it apart later this week.

 
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