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Official 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread - Sebestian (1 Viewer)

Reports out of OBX make it sound like a tusnami hit, water got sucked out to sea and then pushed back onshore really fast, so fast that it started pushing sand dunes around which sounds crazy.

 
hatteras and ocracoke sound gutted.  spoke with someone from ocracoke and someone in rodanthe.  direct hit and under water.  no power.  from what they say, the ocean rise was bad, but the east rise of the sound was devastating.

 
So, during Matthew i had water damage in my garage.  Luckily, just my garage.  Large and reputable roofing company made repair for 2500-.  Florence came thru the roof repair and damaged the same areas.  Under warranty, roofing company made repair.  Today, i had water in my garage again.  Gggrrrrrrr

 
culdeus said:
Reports out of OBX make it sound like a tusnami hit, water got sucked out to sea and then pushed back onshore really fast, so fast that it started pushing sand dunes around which sounds crazy.
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Banks are getting and have been eroded by mother nature.  They will all be gone in 100 years or so.

 
One thing about big hurricanes, they tend to get everyone fired up about the "next big one" which usually never happens.  The waves coming off the African coast that all looked so promising have run into a lot of issues.  

But there is the spot in the Caribbean that looks to move into GOM that kind of came out of nowhere.  This one looks like it's main threat of development will be time.  But regardless, it appears that it will bring rain to that region.

 
TheIronSheik said:
One thing about big hurricanes, they tend to get everyone fired up about the "next big one" which usually never happens.  The waves coming off the African coast that all looked so promising have run into a lot of issues.  

But there is the spot in the Caribbean that looks to move into GOM that kind of came out of nowhere.  This one looks like it's main threat of development will be time.  But regardless, it appears that it will bring rain to that region.
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Irma/Maria were like a week apart just two years ago.

 
There are a lot of slots on the 10 day to get thru, normally you would see a lot of fish storms, but one of the more nasty aspects of global warming is with more homogeneous temperature throughout the world you will get less poleward movement or "fish storms".  

https://i.redd.it/tjw2q7r5yxl31.jpg 

So far the intensity of these is weak, but at 240 hours it's been pointed out that Dorian was forecast to come onshore as a rain maker only with 40mph winds.

 
culdeus said:
There are a lot of slots on the 10 day to get thru, normally you would see a lot of fish storms, but one of the more nasty aspects of global warming is with more homogeneous temperature throughout the world you will get less poleward movement or "fish storms".  

https://i.redd.it/tjw2q7r5yxl31.jpg 

So far the intensity of these is weak, but at 240 hours it's been pointed out that Dorian was forecast to come onshore as a rain maker only with 40mph winds.
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What?  :confused:

We literally just had two named storms form and go north.  And, in fact, as I explained for almost a week, they are what's blocking (along with the remnants of Dorian (which also eventually curved out to sea)) anything else from going north.  This is a great example of Bogey Man Global Warming.  Strong storm forming in the Atlantic?  That's the Bogey Man.  Big blizzard hitting the midwest during winter?  That's the Bogey Man.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
What?  :confused:

We literally just had two named storms form and go north.  And, in fact, as I explained for almost a week, they are what's blocking (along with the remnants of Dorian (which also eventually curved out to sea)) anything else from going north.  This is a great example of Bogey Man Global Warming.  Strong storm forming in the Atlantic?  That's the Bogey Man.  Big blizzard hitting the midwest during winter?  That's the Bogey Man.  
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The issues with GW are getting worse, storm surge with rising water levels, rapid intensification, and flooding due to the available water vapor.  

It's fine to be hopeful that these events aren't getting worse, but the effects of warmer water and more C02 in the atmosphere even independent of eachother are going to have an effect on storms intensity when they do appear.  

The most significant damage the country is seeing now isn't really from hurricanes, but the inconsistent atmospheric moisture content across areas causing flooding in some areas and fires in the others.  Hurricanes are more locally acute, but stand to do much lower amounts of damage in the short term compared to onshore flooding events..  

 
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culdeus said:
The issues with GW are getting worse, storm surge with rising water levels, rapid intensification, and flooding due to the available water vapor.  

It's fine to be hopeful that these events aren't getting worse, but the effects of warmer water and more C02 in the atmosphere even independent of eachother are going to have an effect on storms intensity when they do appear.  

The most significant damage the country is seeing now isn't really from hurricanes, but the inconsistent atmospheric moisture content across areas causing flooding in some areas and fires in the others.  Hurricanes are more locally acute, but stand to do much lower amounts of damage in the short term.  
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What does any of this have to do with hurricanes not being able to move north anymore because the earth is warming?  You're just flinging crap all over the place and hoping something sticks at this point.

 
I've said many times, I'm not fighting whether GW is a thing or not.  \

What I'm saying is don't just randomly blame something on GW.  In the last week we saw three storms recurve out to sea and I went into great detail explaining why the next wave of waves (sounds like a wave you'd worship because it died on the cross) would have no place to go but westward towards the Caribbean and GOM.  There is a huge amount of traffic in the north Atlantic and tropical systems are looking for the easiest route.  

The reason these next couple of waves are heading west are because of a simple explanation.  To just say "Global Warming" is just incorrect.  The same way saying a cold day in winter is proof that GW does not exist.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
I've said many times, I'm not fighting whether GW is a thing or not.  \

What I'm saying is don't just randomly blame something on GW.  In the last week we saw three storms recurve out to sea and I went into great detail explaining why the next wave of waves (sounds like a wave you'd worship because it died on the cross) would have no place to go but westward towards the Caribbean and GOM.  There is a huge amount of traffic in the north Atlantic and tropical systems are looking for the easiest route.  

The reason these next couple of waves are heading west are because of a simple explanation.  To just say "Global Warming" is just incorrect.  The same way saying a cold day in winter is proof that GW does not exist.  
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I know this is a random question that you probably not the faintest idea but is there any chance any of those "waves" come up the eastern seaboard?   Just in a holding pattern in putting up my hurricane boards etc.  Its a hassle to drag them out and then put them back.

thanks for any info

 
pantherclub said:
I know this is a random question that you probably not the faintest idea but is there any chance any of those "waves" come up the eastern seaboard?   Just in a holding pattern in putting up my hurricane boards etc.  Its a hassle to drag them out and then put them back.

thanks for any info
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Yessh.  I mean, this is the peak of hurricane season.  

If I could tell you what those waves were going to do, I'd probably be writing behind a paywall and charging millions of dollars to access the site.  :lol:   

I can't tell you what or what not to do, but today is literally the peak of hurricane season.  There's nothing imminent for hitting the east coast, but that could change in the next week.  If you're asking if something is going to hit within the next 7 days on the east coast, I'd say less than 10% chance.

 
culdeus said:
So far the intensity of these is weak, but at 240 hours it's been pointed out that Dorian was forecast to come onshore as a rain maker only with 40mph winds.
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Even with improved modeling ... aren't 10-day forecasts always pretty much wrong? First time I checked on Dorian the weekend of 8/24-25 when it was still an invest, the models were all over the place but more than a few had it crossing Florida and threatening the northern Gulf. I can't remember how long it took for the crossing-Florida route to be "eliminated" as a possibility ... maybe not for another 4 or 5 days?

Looking back on it ... it looks like it took the models several days to achieve consensus on the eventual northerly turn. By 8/29-30, IIRC, the Gulf of Mexico was essentially cleared model-wise.

 
Doug B said:
Even with improved modeling ... aren't 10-day forecasts always pretty much wrong? First time I checked on Dorian the weekend of 8/24-25 when it was still an invest, the models were all over the place but more than a few had it crossing Florida and threatening the northern Gulf. I can't remember how long it took for the crossing-Florida route to be "eliminated" as a possibility ... maybe not for another 4 or 5 days?

Looking back on it ... it looks like it took the models several days to achieve consensus on the eventual northerly turn. By 8/29-30, IIRC, the Gulf of Mexico was essentially cleared model-wise.
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Yes.  

It's why the NHC only really supports only a 3 day forecast.  They extend it out to 5 days, but really that's experimental.  It's why the 4-5 day COU is a different shading.

ETA:  Link didn't work.  Not sure why.  But it's showing the NHC graphic.

 
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Doug B said:
Even with improved modeling ... aren't 10-day forecasts always pretty much wrong? First time I checked on Dorian the weekend of 8/24-25 when it was still an invest, the models were all over the place but more than a few had it crossing Florida and threatening the northern Gulf. I can't remember how long it took for the crossing-Florida route to be "eliminated" as a possibility ... maybe not for another 4 or 5 days?

Looking back on it ... it looks like it took the models several days to achieve consensus on the eventual northerly turn. By 8/29-30, IIRC, the Gulf of Mexico was essentially cleared model-wise.
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Here's your timeline.  

And forget 3 to 4 days.  One day we went to bed and the models had Dorian going south of PR and when we woke up, the storm had moved north of PR and it pretty much missed the island.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
Yessh.  I mean, this is the peak of hurricane season.  

If I could tell you what those waves were going to do, I'd probably be writing behind a paywall and charging millions of dollars to access the site.  :lol:   

I can't tell you what or what not to do, but today is literally the peak of hurricane season.  There's nothing imminent for hitting the east coast, but that could change in the next week.  If you're asking if something is going to hit within the next 7 days on the east coast, I'd say less than 10% chance.
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I just spent the last 3 hours in 85 degree heat with high humidity putting up the boards and putting things back on my porch and deck.

So look for a hurricane to make landfall in about 5 days

 
I have a gom beach vacation for my whole family plus some sos. Starting Sunday. The whole week shows storms. I’m so bad. Should gave gone this week. 

 
8am Tropical Weather Outlook could be interesting.  Models continue to take 95L (possible Humberto) further East but NHC has stuck with Straits of Florida  solution.

 
There's a lot if uncertainty with these models because the storm hasn't actually formed yet. Hard to complete an equation when you're unsure of the starting point.

 
pantherclub said:
I knew it
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If it doesn't go into the GOM, I don't think this thing has enough time to be much more than a rainmaker.  It could reach tropical storm status, maybe, at most.  Two things here are its current speed and this is the same area that Dorian went through.  Hurricanes churn up cold water from the bottom of the ocean and can actually make development in it's wake difficult.  

 
Text of 48 hour TWO

1. Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better organized while surface pressures are falling in the area. Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday, especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 
JaxBill said:
Text of 48 hour TWO

1. Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better organized while surface pressures are falling in the area. Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday, especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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One thing people tend to think is, "Good thing it won't become a tropical storm or hurricane" when they hear it'll just bring rain.  But tropical rain is bad.  Flooding rain is always bad, but especially for people who have no place to live.

 
Also, I forgot to mention, remember those satellite images that showed what the Bahamas looked like after Dorian?  And I asked how they got the image while the storm was still over them?

Well, this past weekend, I saw some tweets coming out where weather people were saying those were NOT before and after pictures.  They explained what that image was, but I had not clue what it was saying.  I read it a couple times, but didn't understand what it was saying.  All I know was the first sentence said: These are not before and after images.

 
TheIronSheik said:
If it doesn't go into the GOM, I don't think this thing has enough time to be much more than a rainmaker.  It could reach tropical storm status, maybe, at most.  Two things here are its current speed and this is the same area that Dorian went through.  Hurricanes churn up cold water from the bottom of the ocean and can actually make development in it's wake difficult.  
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I was more or less joking because I spent all afternoon putting up my storm shutters etc.

 
pantherclub said:
I just spent the last 3 hours in 85 degree heat with high humidity putting up the boards and putting things back on my porch and deck.

So look for a hurricane to make landfall in about 5 days
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Prepping for a storm is one thing, but when it passes and you have to put everything back out, you quickly realize how much crap you have outside.
Deck chairs, pool accouterments, bird feeders, wind chimes, etc...  and in the heat as you mentioned.

Over the weekend I piled all of the limbs and leaves by the street.  I used my MIL's two big city issued cans to put a lot of the leaves in.  After Monday's garbage pickup, I filled my can and added it to the collection.  Normal yard debris pickup is Wednesday.  Naturally they are running behind and haven't gotten to me yet, no problem ... except I am now putting my garbage bags on the garage floor as my can is full of leaves.

 
Mjolnirs said:
Prepping for a storm is one thing, but when it passes and you have to put everything back out, you quickly realize how much crap you have outside.
Deck chairs, pool accouterments, bird feeders, wind chimes, etc...  and in the heat as you mentioned.

Over the weekend I piled all of the limbs and leaves by the street.  I used my MIL's two big city issued cans to put a lot of the leaves in.  After Monday's garbage pickup, I filled my can and added it to the collection.  Normal yard debris pickup is Wednesday.  Naturally they are running behind and haven't gotten to me yet, no problem ... except I am now putting my garbage bags on the garage floor as my can is full of leaves.
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When I first moved here 15ish years ago I had every one of my trees in the yard cut down.   It was like 6 tall pines and I wasnt going to deal with limbs and branches after every storm

 
pantherclub said:
When I first moved here 15ish years ago I had every one of my trees in the yard cut down.   It was like 6 tall pines and I wasnt going to deal with limbs and branches after every storm
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I have two trees on my property, my neighbor has so many in his back yard that it is a perpetual canopy of shade.  Nearly everything in my yard came from his.

The first house my wife and I purchased, that's what we did.  We moved in during September of 1988 and immediately had 5 tall pine trees cut down.  One year later, Hugo.  They would have completely demolished that house.  The house I currently live in was split in half by a large tree during Hugo.  You can look at the breaker box mapping and see how they rewired the house around the new construction.

 
JaxBill said:
There's a lot if uncertainty with these models because the storm hasn't actually formed yet. Hard to complete an equation when you're unsure of the starting point.
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If there's one thing to say about this disturbance it's that the models have no clue what it'll do.  Reminds me of Barry from earlier this year.  It hadn't formed yet, but we knew it was probably going to be over land within 36 hours and the models were like :shrug:  .

 
I'll clarify by saying these aren't my thoughts:  But I see that the talk is that this disturbance seems to be forming further south than originally thought.  And that would mean the steering currents in the models are completely wrong.  So models can be pretty much thrown out up until now.  It looks to move slower, which would give it time to reach TS strength.  But that doesn't really matter if we don't know which way he goes after forming.  

But at this point, the eastern seaboard is looking way more in play than 24 hours ago.  Thanks a lot, pantherclub.  :angry:

 
Looks like 9 may try to skirt the coast like Dorian did.  As I said, it's not an easy task to penetrate that bullet proof vest of the east coast.

 
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