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Official 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread - Sebestian (1 Viewer)

I've been away from the computer for nearly two day.s  Updated the title and first post with Humberto.

Obviously not looking like an issue for the US, but I do leave a week from today for a cruise to Bermuda.  So, watching it and Invest 97L intently.

 
Mjolnirs said:
pantherclub said:
When I first moved here 15ish years ago I had every one of my trees in the yard cut down.   It was like 6 tall pines and I wasnt going to deal with limbs and branches after every storm
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I have two trees on my property, my neighbor has so many in his back yard that it is a perpetual canopy of shade.  Nearly everything in my yard came from his.

The first house my wife and I purchased, that's what we did.  We moved in during September of 1988 and immediately had 5 tall pine trees cut down.  One year later, Hugo.  They would have completely demolished that house.  The house I currently live in was split in half by a large tree during Hugo.  You can look at the breaker box mapping and see how they rewired the house around the new construction.
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You people are nuts.

 
and TS Jerry

I told my wife last night that I could pretty much guarantee that our cruise to Bermuda, that leaves Charleston on Sunday, will not be heading to Bermuda.

 
Wondering how long it will be before I get asked to do FEMA support in the Houston area again. I’m committed full time onsite to a big client so it’s unlikely I’ll do it again.

 
Just saw some Imelda video from a buddy of mine who lives in that area.

It's raining shoes and boots down there.

 
I'm seeing some projections of 55 inches of rain in east Texas.  That's crazy.  That's close to Harvey levels, but on a much smaller scale.

 
Wave coming off Africa looks impressive.  But I think, even with the polar warming and constant moderation of temps across the globe*, this one will head north and recurve out to the north Atlantic.

*sarcasm

 
Kinda weird to have two storms move in this way and sit over SE Texas within 25 months of each other (2017 Harvey, 2019 Imelda). I know everyone wants to blurt out "global warming!!" ... but is it thought that something explainable or specific is making it THAT much more likely for storms to come ashore over SE Texas and just stay put during that first 24-36 over land?

I mean, even if global warming provably increased the frequency and severity of storms ... would it also be changing storm "behavior"?

And I mean specifically SE Texas ... the coastal area between Corpus Christi, TX and Lake Charles, LA. These stay-in-place storms haven't yet happened to the other Gulf Coast states -- storms that come ashore elsewhere seems to move away from water fairly quickly. Although 2012's Hurricane Isaac (over SE Louisiana) stood out for being a slow mover -- 1 mph over land at one point. Hmmm.

...

Or is it just that SE Texas got unlucky twice? Just random variation, and it's as likely as ever that they won't see another Harvey or Imelda for another century or so?

 
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Doug B said:
Kinda weird to have two storms move in this way and sit over SE Texas within 25 months of each other (2017 Harvey, 2019 Imelda). I know everyone wants to blurt out "global warming!!" ... but is it thought that something explainable or specific is making it THAT much more likely for storms to come ashore over SE Texas and just stay put during that first 24-36 over land?

I mean, even if global warming provably increased the frequency and severity of storms ... would it also be changing storm "behavior"?

And I mean specifically SE Texas ... the coastal area between Corpus Christi, TX and Lake Charles, LA. These stay-in-place storms haven't yet happened to the other Gulf Coast states -- storms that come ashore elsewhere seems to move away from water fairly quickly. Although 2012's Hurricane Isaac stood out for being a slow mover (1 mph over land at one point). Hmmm.

...

Or is it just that SE Texas got unlucky twice? Just random variation, and it's as likely as ever that they won't see another Harvey or Imelda for another century or so?
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Unlucky twice.

It's all about steering currents.  Where a storm goes and how fast it moves is dictated by the steering currents.  In most cases, storms moving north into the US are picked up by fronts moving across the country.  Harvey was blocked and could not move anywhere until those blocks moved.  Imelda is different in that there are no real blocks keeping it from moving.  Instead, there's no real steering current to push it anywhere, so it's just meandering north.

This is an instance where what happened is rare, but not anything out of the ordinary.  It's kind of like a no-hitter in baseball.  Doesn't happen all of the time, but when it does, it's not because of global warming.  Even if there are two no hitters in the same week.  Still not global warming that caused it.

 
Keep an eye on Karen (and Jerry, to some extent.)  Both might have some traffic to deal with heading out to sea.  I see that Karen, which looked like it would head north and then out to sea, now hits the brakes, then some models have it making a left towards the eastern seaboard.

Models also have Jerry looping back around into the Caribbean.  While not unheard of, still not something you see a lot.  And with the colder northern Atlantic waters as well as Karen churning up the waters around it, seeing it loop and reform might be asking for a lot.  But again, it's not like it hasn't happened in the past.

Just something to keep an eye on.  

 
Tried to update the first post with Karen and Lorenzo. Can’t figure out how to do it on my phone, or update the title. 

I’m on a ship cruising now from Princess Cays to Nassau ... our alternate ports since Bermuda was a no go. 

 
Karen has been dumping large quantities of rain on Puerto Rico with flash flooding a danger.

No immediate concern to continental US but you might want to keep an eye out this weekend for Karen forecast changes. A small number of models have Karen making hard left turn. But at 7-8 days out with numerous variables,  those models can obviously change.

 
Mrs. Rannous said:
It's too early to tell with this one.  Pure speculation.
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Well, you only quoted my first sentence.  The rest of the paragraph pretty much stated that it was not likely.  I was basically just saying what the models were showing, then I explained why it was not likely to happen. :shrug:

 
Tropics around our area get a respite as conditions go from favorable to hostile.  Shear is going to tear Karen apart and keep anything else from forming for the next (probably) week.  

 
Doug B said:
Kinda weird to have two storms move in this way and sit over SE Texas within 25 months of each other (2017 Harvey, 2019 Imelda). I know everyone wants to blurt out "global warming!!" ... but is it thought that something explainable or specific is making it THAT much more likely for storms to come ashore over SE Texas and just stay put during that first 24-36 over land?

I mean, even if global warming provably increased the frequency and severity of storms ... would it also be changing storm "behavior"?

And I mean specifically SE Texas ... the coastal area between Corpus Christi, TX and Lake Charles, LA. These stay-in-place storms haven't yet happened to the other Gulf Coast states -- storms that come ashore elsewhere seems to move away from water fairly quickly. Although 2012's Hurricane Isaac (over SE Louisiana) stood out for being a slow mover -- 1 mph over land at one point. Hmmm.

...

Or is it just that SE Texas got unlucky twice? Just random variation, and it's as likely as ever that they won't see another Harvey or Imelda for another century or so?
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Slower moving storms both tropical and normal is predicted by global warming.  Actually maybe a day or two back wunderground had a big post explaining it

 
culdeus said:
Slower moving storms both tropical and normal is predicted by global warming.  Actually maybe a day or two back wunderground had a big post explaining it
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Yup.  Also, they won't be able to go north anymore.  They'll probably also add a couple more category numbers due to the awesomeness of the new sizes they'll reach.  We can probably expect to see hurricanes the size of Jupiter here on Earth by next hurricane season. 

 
TheIronSheik said:
Yup.  Also, they won't be able to go north anymore.  They'll probably also add a couple more category numbers due to the awesomeness of the new sizes they'll reach.  We can probably expect to see hurricanes the size of Jupiter here on Earth by next hurricane season. 
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Good timing considering Lorenzo is setting intensity records for it's latitude and size records for well. Anywhere

 
TheIronSheik said:
What direction is it heading? 
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It's also important to point out that it's very misleading when people say things like "most intense hurricane ever for that region."  Because we've only been able to get readings for that area for probably about 60 years.  I can assure you that Abraham Lincoln was not checking the internet to see what the satellite imagery was showing of storms out off the coast of Africa.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
It's also important to point out that it's very misleading when people say things like "most intense hurricane ever for that region."  Because we've only been able to get readings for that area for probably about 60 years.  I can assure you that Abraham Lincoln was not checking the internet to see what the satellite imagery was showing of storms out off the coast of Africa.  
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Well, to be fair, Lincoln did send the hurricane hunters into the storm, but the crew of those  hot air balloons never reported back for some reason. 

 
TheIronSheik said:
It's also important to point out that it's very misleading when people say things like "most intense hurricane ever for that region."  Because we've only been able to get readings for that area for probably about 60 years.  I can assure you that Abraham Lincoln was not checking the internet to see what the satellite imagery was showing of storms out off the coast of Africa.  
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Ok.  

 
Well that deescalated quickly.

Only real spot of concern would be the GOM for next week, but nothing super promising there.  Conditions, right now, would seem favorable for something, but we're talking a week away.

 
Wave coming off Africa looks like it's going to defy all logic and head north.  Pretty impressive since GW has all but made it impossible for storms to go north.   :rolleyes:

 
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