**OFFICIAL 2025 Draft Thread - Green Bay Opens The Door For Guests** (2 Viewers)

[travdogg]

Chris Paul is a nice steal for the Rams here. At worst he's a high-end ST, with nickel LB ability. Could be a starter too.

 

[Donnybrook]

Can the Raiders find a QB of the future with a 6th round pick? (Will Tom Brady have some influence?)

 

[ZWK]

Interesting career arc for Sam Howell. Hyped up as a 1st or 2nd rounder in a weak QB class, after showing some strong college production as a passer (if you ignore that he was one of the most sacked quarterbacks in college football). Fell all the way to day 3 of the draft, to pick 144, where he went to a Washington team with a wide open QB room. Got a chance to be the starter in year 2, generating some excitement that maybe he'd improve on his pocket presence. He did not, and flamed out as a starter with a ton of mistakes including the NFL lead in sacks. Now headed to his third team in four years on a cheap trade.

 

[travdogg]

Really blown away we are in round 6 and Damien Martinez is still there. I didn't see much difference between him and Quinshon Judkins as prospects.

 

[JohnnyU]

Really blown away we are in round 6 and Damien Martinez is still there. I didn't see much difference between him and Quinshon Judkins as prospects.

You’re hired as the head of scouting !!!!!!! Meet me later for hookers and blow.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Really blown away we are in round 6 and Damien Martinez is still there. I didn't see much difference between him and Quinshon Judkins as prospects.

Just ask Waldman how he feels about Tahj Brooks.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Ollie G to the Phins.

 

[JohnnyU]

Ollie G to the Phins.

Hmmmm. I don’t, I won’t.

 

[travdogg]

I'd bet against McCord beating out Tanner McKee

 

[JohnnyU]

I'd bet against McCord beating out Tanner McKee

Why would he be taken before Will Howard?

 

[Dez]

Gordon to Miami uh oh for Achane not the place I wanted Gordon to go

 

[IHEARTFF]

Miami not who I was hoping for Gordon
Philly not who for McCord eother

 

[Dez]

I'd bet against McCord beating out Tanner McKee

Why would he be taken before Will Howard?

Because McCord failed at Ohio St while Howard won the ship

 

[Dez]

KICKER !!!!!!!!!

 

[Donnybrook]

I'd bet against McCord beating out Tanner McKee

I suspect they will sneak him on the practice squad. How do they retain DTR?

 

[IHEARTFF]

Neal to back fill Kamara. Nice late round grab.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Good spot for Neal with a backup that can't stay available.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Howard to either start or backup Rodgers. Like that pick a lot.

 

[Dez]

Ravens take a kicker not a good sign for Tucker

 

[IHEARTFF]

Ravens take a kicker not a good sign for Tucker

Yep bye bye

 

[ZWK]

Here are the teams sorted by profit from trades, combining a few different trade value charts (JJ, Rich Hill, F-S, AV, Reinhard, Reinhard Empirical) and treating future picks as being worth the last (non-compensatory) pick of the round:

CLE (946, 1.30, 6/6)
LV (575, 1.32, 6/6)
LAR (289, 1.23, 6/6)
NE (264, 1.24, 5/6)
HOU (249, 1.07, 6/6)
TEN (183, 1.17, 4/6)
CHI (132, 1.07, 4/6)
DEN (83, 1.03, 6/6)
MIN (56, 1.11, 5/6)
PHI (51, 1.02, 3/6)
KC (-30, 0.98, 1/6)
BUF (-132, 0.94, 2/6)
CAR (-141, 0.94, 0/6)
SEA (-183, 0.88, 2/6)
MIA (-365, 0.76, 0/6)
ATL (-391, 0.81, 0/6)
DET (-429, 0.78, 0/6)
NYG (-445, 0.76, 0/6)
JAX (-714, 0.87, 0/6)

The first number in parentheses is the total profit, value gained minus value lost, averaging together 6 trade value charts where each one is scaled so that the first overall pick is worth 3000.

The second number is the return, value gained divided by value lost.

The third number is how many of the 6 trade value charts the team came out ahead on. e.g., NE came out ahead on their trades according to 5 of the 6 charts, but the Jimmy Johnson chart has them as slight losers, so they get 5/6.

IMO these numbers are too harsh on some trade-ups (e.g. JAX from 5 to 2 - the gap between those players was bigger than usual) and too gentle on some (e.g. counting the future 1st that ATL gave to draft Pearce as pick 32 is underrating its value, since that pick could be early).

Thanks for sharing that. I've given a lot of thought over the years to the value of future picks. I get the angle when people treat it like the future value of money... but I just haven't ever been convinced that is the right way to do it. I mean sure it is if you're a GM and more worried about keeping your job. But I don't think any of us have any reason to look at it from that angle. We should view it by the long term value to the franchise overall.

Agree with you I don't like the 'last pick of the round' aspect. I would rather treat them like it's the same draft order that year as this year. Or maybe sort by Vegas win totals to try to incorporate roster changes that are already known.

But, nice to see that look at it, so thanks for posting.

Another way to value future trades is to assume that the pick is equally likely to be any pick in that round, and then apply some discount rate (e.g. a 10% discount rate means that next year's pick is 0.9x as valuable as this year's pick). That is maybe better, although it's not obvious how to pick a discount rate (I think some discount rate makes more sense than a 0% discount rate).

Assuming that the pick is the last one of the round is basically the same as using a 20% discount rate, for rounds 2-7. For round 1, it's like assuming a 40% discount rate. (That's the average across the draft value charts - these numbers depend on which chart you're using.)

(Actual NFL front offices could consider which team they're getting the future pick from, and estimate a probability distribution for which pick of the round that will be, and use that instead of assuming that it's equally likely to be any pick. That won't make a huge difference, though, except for round 1 picks.)

 

[IHEARTFF]

Anyone who starts 32 games on Alabamas d line is certainly draftable

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

DAL - Javonte-Sanders-Vaughn BLUE
BUF - James Cook situation-Ray Davis
CHI - Swift-Roschon-Homer MONANGAI
CIN - Chase-Moss-Perine BROOKS
KC - Pacheco-Hunt-Mitchell BRASHARD SMITH
NO - Kamara-Miller NEAL
SF - CMC-Guerendo JORDAN JAMES
WAS - BRob-Ekeler
HOU Mixon-Pierce -- nevermind MARKS
MIN - Jones-Mason-Chandler
MIA - Achane-Wright-Mattison GORDON

 

[Donnybrook]

What a strange depth chart?

FLACCO, JOE U/Ind
Pickett, Kenny T/Phi
Gabriel, Dillon 25/3
Sanders, Shedeur 25/5
\Watson, Deshaun T/Hou

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

DAL - Javonte-Sanders-Vaughn BLUE
BUF - James Cook situation-Ray Davis
CHI - Swift-Roschon-Homer
CIN - Chase-Moss-Perine
KC - Pacheco-Hunt-Mitchell
NO - Kamara-Miller NEAL
SF - CMC-Guerendo JORDAN JAMES
WAS - BRob-Ekeler
HOU JUST TOOK MARKS RND 4 -- nevermind MARKS
MIN - Jones-Mason-Chandler
MIA - Achane-Wright-Mattison GORDON

I don’t see James as anything but depth. Certainly wouldn’t cross out Guerendo.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Ravens take a kicker not a good sign for Tucker

Yep bye bye

I think so. Baltimore knows something's coming out about Tucker.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Lions should take Martinez just to rub it in Bears face

 

[Desert_Power]

Ravens take a kicker not a good sign for Tucker

Yep bye bye

I think so. Baltimore knows something's coming out about Tucker.

Feels like we've already heard enough about him.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

DAL - Javonte-Sanders-Vaughn BLUE
BUF - James Cook situation-Ray Davis
CHI - Swift-Roschon-Homer
CIN - Chase-Moss-Perine
KC - Pacheco-Hunt-Mitchell
NO - Kamara-Miller NEAL
SF - CMC-Guerendo JORDAN JAMES
WAS - BRob-Ekeler
HOU JUST TOOK MARKS RND 4 -- nevermind MARKS
MIN - Jones-Mason-Chandler
MIA - Achane-Wright-Mattison GORDON

I don’t see James as anything but depth. Certainly wouldn’t cross out Guerendo.

Purely a list of teams that looked like they had room for a Day 3 RB five pages back. No bold declarations are being made to push CMC and Guerendo out to pasture, Jordan James has arrived.

 

[JohnnyU]

Ravens take a kicker not a good sign for Tucker

Yep bye bye

I think so. Baltimore knows something's coming out about Tucker.

Feels like we've already heard enough about him.

A-men brother Bill.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Ravens take a kicker not a good sign for Tucker

Yep bye bye

I think so. Baltimore knows something's coming out about Tucker.

Feels like we've already heard enough about him.

Should we talk some more about Rodgers or Sanders?

 

[JohnnyU]

What a strange depth chart?

FLACCO, JOE U/Ind
Pickett, Kenny T/Phi
Gabriel, Dillon 25/3
Sanders, Shedeur 25/5
\Watson, Deshaun T/Hou

Somebody will be cut, maybe two.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Ravens take a kicker not a good sign for Tucker

Yep bye bye

I think so. Baltimore knows something's coming out about Tucker.

Feels like we've already heard enough about him.

The sad part is it’s probably more about him falling off a cliff with his accuracy.

Talent/headache imbalance.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What a strange depth chart?

FLACCO, JOE U/Ind
Pickett, Kenny T/Phi
Gabriel, Dillon 25/3
Sanders, Shedeur 25/5
\Watson, Deshaun T/Hou

Somebody will be cut, maybe two.

They’d have to spend extra to order custom kid-sized gloves for Pickett, so he’s my bet.

 

[IHEARTFF]

What a strange depth chart?

FLACCO, JOE U/Ind
Pickett, Kenny T/Phi
Gabriel, Dillon 25/3
Sanders, Shedeur 25/5
\Watson, Deshaun T/Hou

Somebody will be cut, maybe two.

They’d have to spend extra to order custom kid-sized gloves for Pickett, so he’s my bet.

Watson will be on IR until they can safely release him
Gabriel will be on taxi squad
Shedeur will beat out Pickett and eventually Flacco

 

[GregR]

Looks like Houston traded 216 and 241 to Denver for 197.

 

[Snoopy]

Ravens take a kicker not a good sign for Tucker

Yep bye bye

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Ravens take a kicker not a good sign for Tucker

Yep bye bye

I think so. Baltimore knows something's coming out about Tucker.

Feels like we've already heard enough about him.

The sad part is it’s probably more about him falling off a cliff with his accuracy.

Talent/headache imbalance.

Of course. If it were 2017 Tucker, they'd have never drafted a PK today.

 

[Donnybrook]

What a strange depth chart?

FLACCO, JOE U/Ind
Pickett, Kenny T/Phi
Gabriel, Dillon 25/3
Sanders, Shedeur 25/5
\Watson, Deshaun T/Hou

Somebody will be cut, maybe two.

They’d have to spend extra to order custom kid-sized gloves for Pickett, so he’s my bet.

Watson will be on IR until they can safely release him
Gabriel will be on taxi squad
Shedeur will beat out Pickett and eventually Flacco

You shouldn't be drafting a guy in the 3rd round if you are attempting to move him to the taxi squad. Any team could claim him.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Looks like Houston traded 216 and 241 to Denver for 197.

Is there a pick Houston HASN'T traded this draft? They are like me doing cocaine in the 1980s.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Looks like Houston traded 216 and 241 to Denver for 197.

Is there a pick Houston HASN'T traded this draft? They are like me doing cocaine in the 1980s.

it really is something to behold.

 

[Donnybrook]

Graham Mertz getting drafted over Quinn Ewers.

I rather have Brady Cook over both.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Looks like Houston traded 216 and 241 to Denver for 197.

It’s just wild.

 

[JohnnyU]

Damien Martinez

 

[JohnnyU]

Laquint Allen

 

[IHEARTFF]

Martinez

Cmon Ravens. Would be a sneaky good spot behind Henry for a year

 

[JohnnyU]

Isaiah Bond

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Looks like Houston traded 216 and 241 to Denver for 197.

Is there a pick Houston HASN'T traded this draft? They are like me doing cocaine in the 1980s.

it really is something to behold.

Poor @GregR is trying to keep up, but I don't think we could group-solve everything Houston has done

 

[IHEARTFF]

Martinez

Cmon Ravens. Would be a sneaky good spot behind Henry for a year

Cowboys coming up. Someone needs to get this kid.

 

[GregR]

Looks like Houston traded 216 and 241 to Denver for 197.

It’s just wild.

Traders gonna trade.

But yeah. My only real issue with Nick here is I think he moves up late in the draft when he probably doesn't need to.