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O’s won’t care in five years if it helps put them over the top in the next year or two with their young core still on rookie contracts. They still need some pitching though. Maybe they think they can address that by moving Mountcastle and/or Mayo.
It could play long term. With three true outcome guys like Schwarber, there's always a precarious balance between BB% and SO%. Even with all those walks, he strikes out at a 28% clip. I can almost guarantee that over the length of the deal the strikeouts will creep up and the walks go down. The amount of atrophy is the $150M question.
Alonso is also a guy who gets most of his value through power. His SO% is lower than Schwarber's and he's almost two years younger so in theory, he can stand more regression. But I have a lot of experience with aging and I'm here to tell you it's unpredictable.
We just concluded this same experiment with Paul Goldschmidt's last extension in St. Louis. He's a different kind of hitter but he fell off a cliff in the last two years of his five year deal at age 35-36. He also had two excellent years at the beginning and lost 2/3 of a season to the pandemic so I'd say it was a good deal. We'll see how these two guys do but it's an ominous sign that Chris Davis appears on both of their B-R comps (as does Khris Davis).
As a tiger fan I hope that's accurate, they have to get something for him while they still can. With just one year left on his current contract I'm just not sure how much that would be.
The Twins, after trading their entire bullpen and slashing payroll from $130M to $95M are now "exploring first base options to add some thump" to the lineup. They're reportedly looking at Ryan O'Hearn, Rhys Hoskins, and Josh Bell. That should change everything!
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