*** Official Barack Obama FBG campaign headquarters *** (1 Viewer)

[RoarinSonoran]

I mean think about that. The democrats took control of the entire goverment in 1993. And their first order of business was to hike taxes and promote teaching masturbation in schools. I'm not kidding. They actually did that. That was the sum of their grand vision for their honeymoon. And then their support cratered.

Did you know that Conway Twitty, Dizzy Gillespie, and Audrey Hepburn all died in 1993?

The Clintons had them killed too?!

 

[bigbottom]

Its pretty easy to see that McCain will landslide over Obama, while Clinton has a strong chance to win in November. The democrat party shouldn't jump off a cliff just because the delegate math says so.

What kind of a landslide are you thinking in terms of electoral votes?

I already said a week or so ago I think McCain would beat Obama with 370 electoral votes give or take. Anywhere from 350-400.

Care to make it interesting?

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

North Carolina democrat superdelegate Heath Shuler (yes the ex-QB) has just declared for Hillary Clinton.

He said prior to the primary that he was pledging for whoever won his district.

 

[snitwitch]

Blacks make up a significant portion of the country, and a significant portion of the democratic base. If he can win them in such huge numbers, and make inroads with whites once their apparently preferred candidate is gone, he will be in excellent shape.

You do realize that blacks are not even the biggest minority anymore, don't you??? How can 14% of the population be a significant portion of the country???? Keep in mind not all of them vote either.

14% is a significant portion, especially when you're getting 90+% of that groups votes. Getting 90% of the votes of a group that is fairly well represented in america is a good thing, especially when you're getting good percentages in other groups.

Just checking. I realize he is getting most of that demographic, I just don't think that is a big enough demographic win it on, when you consider the other, bigger, demographics.

More people self-identify as Democrats than Republicans IIRC. This must be upwards of 40% of the country. I'd say that's the biggest demographic (if you can call it that) around.

 

[Sammy3469]

The only thing that keeps bugging me (just in the sense that I think about it because any problems in the democratic party works for me) is that the Obama side of this keep arguing on Hillary's terms.Everywhere today, and everyone, is arguing that the results of last night show that it is over. Except that they've been saying that time and time again. Were you all wrong then and right now?

No, they've pretty much been right all along.It's over. But she won another 5 delegates.Still over. But she won a few more popular votes.Still over. But she loaned herself more money.Still over.If she continues on to Kentucky - it doesn't matter if she wins (because it's over) or loses. Because it's over.

If it's over, why does she keep getting so many votes?

If the Republican nomination is over why did McCain only receive 74% and 77% of the vote in the two primaries last night?I also think you're critique that he's weak because he's let her set the agenda is, well, a fairly weak argument. He's basically been trying to defeat a candidate who continually moves the goalposts with a media establishment that is all too happy to let her do so for ratings and to make the contest last as long as possible for ratings (hell she's still trying to do it). It's like fighting with BGP.

That's my only point though, she does keep moving the goalposts and he is indulging her. Whether or not he has a choice in the matter is another question, but he is fighting her fight.

I don't think he has much choice in the matter with the way the stupid DNC handled MI and FL. His whole May 20th gambit is trying to, but its left to be seen if the media will let him frame the pledged delegate win as a win without FL and MI delegates. His only real mistake in this entire delegate process was not coming to some type of compromise on MI and FL early which would have shut off a bunch of her potential goalpost movements though before now I guess it wasn't assured that he'd out-delegate her.

 

[skol asylum]

Basically I think the public is looking to vote democrat because they are hoping for an improvement in the war on terror by changing horses, because they want the democrats to fight inflation, because they think big oil is taking advantage of them.

If the democrats take control of everything, everyone will get a tax hike. We'll see economic policies backfire as they try price controls that lead to massive shortages in gas, milk, etc. The democrats will try emergency countermeasures by heading for what they think are wedge issues like banning the Boy Scouts, eliminating Christmas, banning religion, etc. By 2010, the public sentiment will swing towards the GOP like never before. The repubicans will sweep back into power in congress and Jeb Bush will be primed for his first term in 2012.

Wow, up until now your posts have been very biased and out of touch from reality. With this gem you've just proven once and for all to be a real moron. No need to give you the benefit of the doubt for any future postings I guess.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

The good thing about this long process in all of these states for Obama is that he gets to introduce himself to people now. He and his message have permeated the airwaves through ads and news (good and bad) while still raising record amounts of money. He is going to be well positioned for the general IMO and be able to call attacks on Rev Wright etc. as been there done that old issues that have been discussed ad naseum.

 

[skol asylum]

Bill Kristol who was just on Fox summed up the Democratic Primary race very well, stating. "Hillary should stay in and pick up what remaining states that she can, not to turn off voters, and Obama supporters leaving HRC room to bow out gracefully." Kristol went on to say that "Hillary will be the VP candidate for BO!"

Kristol is a neocon moron.

 

[Clayton Gray]

Clinton kind of needs to stay in for a couple more weeks so Obama doesn't lose while unopposed in West Virginia and Kentucky (which will likely happen regardless of the amount of campaigning either does in those states).

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Basically I think the public is looking to vote democrat because they are hoping for an improvement in the war on terror by changing horses, because they want the democrats to fight inflation, because they think big oil is taking advantage of them.

If the democrats take control of everything, everyone will get a tax hike. We'll see economic policies backfire as they try price controls that lead to massive shortages in gas, milk, etc. The democrats will try emergency countermeasures by heading for what they think are wedge issues like banning the Boy Scouts, eliminating Christmas, banning religion, etc. By 2010, the public sentiment will swing towards the GOP like never before. The repubicans will sweep back into power in congress and Jeb Bush will be primed for his first term in 2012.

This sounds fantastic!

Honestly this part makes perfect sense. If there were massive shortages in milk, we should band the Hindu religion so we could use more sacred cows for milk. Problem solved. Yea to the Democrats.

 

[Clayton Gray]

Basically I think the public is looking to vote democrat because they are hoping for an improvement in the war on terror by changing horses, because they want the democrats to fight inflation, because they think big oil is taking advantage of them.

If the democrats take control of everything, everyone will get a tax hike. We'll see economic policies backfire as they try price controls that lead to massive shortages in gas, milk, etc. The democrats will try emergency countermeasures by heading for what they think are wedge issues like banning the Boy Scouts, eliminating Christmas, banning religion, etc. By 2010, the public sentiment will swing towards the GOP like never before. The repubicans will sweep back into power in congress and Jeb Bush will be primed for his first term in 2012.

This sounds fantastic!

Honestly this part makes perfect sense. If there were massive shortages in milk, we should band the Hindu religion so we could use more sacred cows for milk. Problem solved. Yea to the Democrats.

We could free up some more milk by banning the Indy 500.

 

[Sammy3469]

Basically I think the public is looking to vote democrat because they are hoping for an improvement in the war on terror by changing horses, because they want the democrats to fight inflation, because they think big oil is taking advantage of them.

If the democrats take control of everything, everyone will get a tax hike. We'll see economic policies backfire as they try price controls that lead to massive shortages in gas, milk, etc. The democrats will try emergency countermeasures by heading for what they think are wedge issues like banning the Boy Scouts, eliminating Christmas, banning religion, etc. By 2010, the public sentiment will swing towards the GOP like never before. The repubicans will sweep back into power in congress and Jeb Bush will be primed for his first term in 2012.

This sounds fantastic!

Honestly this part makes perfect sense. If there were massive shortages in milk, we should band the Hindu religion so we could use more sacred cows for milk. Problem solved. Yea to the Democrats.

We could free up some more milk by banning the Indy 500.

That would help with the gas shortage too. Double bonus

 

[Clayton Gray]

Basically I think the public is looking to vote democrat because they are hoping for an improvement in the war on terror by changing horses, because they want the democrats to fight inflation, because they think big oil is taking advantage of them.

If the democrats take control of everything, everyone will get a tax hike. We'll see economic policies backfire as they try price controls that lead to massive shortages in gas, milk, etc. The democrats will try emergency countermeasures by heading for what they think are wedge issues like banning the Boy Scouts, eliminating Christmas, banning religion, etc. By 2010, the public sentiment will swing towards the GOP like never before. The repubicans will sweep back into power in congress and Jeb Bush will be primed for his first term in 2012.

This sounds fantastic!

Honestly this part makes perfect sense. If there were massive shortages in milk, we should band the Hindu religion so we could use more sacred cows for milk. Problem solved. Yea to the Democrats.

We could free up some more milk by banning the Indy 500.

That would help with the gas shortage too. Double bonus

There's a gas shortage?

 

[mrowl]

lol, hillaryclinton.com redirects to her contribution page.

 

[RoarinSonoran]

How much have each of the candidates raised so far?

 

[adonis]

How much have each of the candidates raised so far?

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.aspLatest March reports: (April reports due May 20)

Total Raised:

Obama: $234,745,081

Clinton: $189,097,053

Raised in March:

Obama - $41,144,348

Clinton - $20,107,968

Debts:

Obama - $662,784

Clinton - $15,321,562

Cash on Hand:

Obama - $51,073,999

Clinton - $31,712,197

 

[BigSteelThrill]

How much have each of the candidates raised so far?

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.aspLatest March reports: (April reports due May 20)

Raised:

Obama - $41,144,348

Clinton - $20,107,968

Debts:

Obama - $662,784

Clinton - $15,321,562

Cash on Hand:

Obama - $51,073,999

Clinton - $31,712,197

Thats the kind of fiscal responsibility (while still being proactive) I am sooooo looking forward to.

 

[snitwitch]

Basically I think the public is looking to vote democrat because they are hoping for an improvement in the war on terror by changing horses, because they want the democrats to fight inflation, because they think big oil is taking advantage of them.

If the democrats take control of everything, everyone will get a tax hike. We'll see economic policies backfire as they try price controls that lead to massive shortages in gas, milk, etc. The democrats will try emergency countermeasures by heading for what they think are wedge issues like banning the Boy Scouts, eliminating Christmas, banning religion, etc. By 2010, the public sentiment will swing towards the GOP like never before. The repubicans will sweep back into power in congress and Jeb Bush will be primed for his first term in 2012.

This sounds fantastic!

Honestly this part makes perfect sense. If there were massive shortages in milk, we should band the Hindu religion so we could use more sacred cows for milk. Problem solved. Yea to the Democrats.

Obama only drinks the finest breastmilks. In order to solve this problem, you'll have to go up to the Bronx and get him some breastmilks from a Cambodian immigrant.

 

[shining path]

Its pretty easy to see that McCain will landslide over Obama, while Clinton has a strong chance to win in November. The democrat party shouldn't jump off a cliff just because the delegate math says so.

What kind of a landslide are you thinking in terms of electoral votes?

I already said a week or so ago I think McCain would beat Obama with 370 electoral votes give or take. Anywhere from 350-400.

Care to make it interesting?

You mind if I give it a crack?

I already said a week or so ago I think McCain would beat Obama with 370 electoral votes give or take. Anywhere from 350-400. And then Jeanette, breathing in soft gasps, began to unbutton Megan's blouse. Her emotions were aflame, and at war. On the one hand, the daughter of Parson McGreely knew full well that her attraction to the buxom Megan was a mortal sin. But the sight of the stewardess' amber hair, the smooth, sun-browned skin of her legs as the sheer sun dress rode up her perfectly toned thighs, was enough to render every sermon she'd heard in her life meaningless. She lost her last shred of self-control when Megan cupped her buttocks...

Is that more interesting?

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Its pretty easy to see that McCain will landslide over Obama, while Clinton has a strong chance to win in November. The democrat party shouldn't jump off a cliff just because the delegate math says so.

What kind of a landslide are you thinking in terms of electoral votes?

I already said a week or so ago I think McCain would beat Obama with 370 electoral votes give or take. Anywhere from 350-400.

Care to make it interesting?

You mind if I give it a crack?

I already said a week or so ago I think McCain would beat Obama with 370 electoral votes give or take. Anywhere from 350-400. And then Jeanette, breathing in soft gasps, began to unbutton Megan's blouse. Her emotions were aflame, and at war. On the one hand, the daughter of Parson McGreely knew full well that her attraction to the buxom Megan was a mortal sin. But the sight of the stewardess' amber hair, the smooth, sun-browned skin of her legs as the sheer sun dress rode up her perfectly toned thighs, was enough to render every sermon she'd heard in her life meaningless. She lost her last shred of self-control when Megan cupped her buttocks...

Is that more interesting?

You got my vote.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Its pretty easy to see that McCain will landslide over Obama, while Clinton has a strong chance to win in November. The democrat party shouldn't jump off a cliff just because the delegate math says so.

What kind of a landslide are you thinking in terms of electoral votes?

I already said a week or so ago I think McCain would beat Obama with 370 electoral votes give or take. Anywhere from 350-400.

Care to make it interesting?

You mind if I give it a crack?

I already said a week or so ago I think McCain would beat Obama with 370 electoral votes give or take. Anywhere from 350-400. And then Jeanette, breathing in soft gasps, began to unbutton Megan's blouse. Her emotions were aflame, and at war. On the one hand, the daughter of Parson McGreely knew full well that her attraction to the buxom Megan was a mortal sin. But the sight of the stewardess' amber hair, the smooth, sun-browned skin of her legs as the sheer sun dress rode up her perfectly toned thighs, was enough to render every sermon she'd heard in her life meaningless. She lost her last shred of self-control when Megan cupped her buttocks...

Is that more interesting?

More please.

 

[phthalatemagic]

If anyone missed it, Wolf Blitzer just held a saence where he brought up the ghost of George McGovern. McGovern wants Hillary to call it quits.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Count me in. I was waiting for the dust to settle and as a WJC lover, I had to be sure. OBAMA in '08!

 

[adonis]

News broke this morning that Senator Clinton made three separate loans to her campaign in the past 30 days -- including one as recently as Monday.

These loans total more than $6.4 million, which combined with her previous personal loans, add up to at least $11.4 million she's loaned her campaign since February.

A spokesman said she may continue to "loan the campaign additional money out of her jointly-held assets" -- which include more than $100 million in income since her husband left the White House.

Meanwhile, by winning a double-digit victory in North Carolina and closing the gap in Indiana, Barack won another 100 delegates.

Barack Obama is now just 172 delegates away from winning the Democratic nomination. It's within sight.

This is a decisive moment in this race.

Barack has already won more votes, more delegates, and more than twice as many states as Senator Clinton, whose path to the nomination has grown extremely narrow. But these loans show that her campaign will continue to contest the remaining primaries vigorously.

We need to show that the voices of more than 1.5 million ordinary people donating whatever they can afford are more powerful than one person giving more than $11 million to their own campaign.

You've helped build this historic movement -- please help close out this nomination by making another donation of $25 to match Senator Clinton's loan:

https://donate.barackobama.com/results

Here's the math of where we stand ...

There are only six contests remaining on the Democratic primary calendar and only 217 pledged delegates left to be awarded. Only 7% of the pledged delegates remain on the table. There are 253 remaining undeclared superdelegates, for a total of 470 delegates left to be awarded.

With North Carolina and Indiana complete, Barack Obama only needs 170 total delegates to capture the Democratic nomination. This is only 36% of the total remaining delegates.

Conversely, Senator Clinton needs 326 delegates to reach the Democratic nomination, which represents a startling 69% of the remaining delegates.

With the Clinton path to the nomination getting even narrower, we expect new and wildly creative scenarios to emerge in the coming days.

While those scenarios may be entertaining, they are not legitimate and will not be considered legitimate by this campaign or its millions of supporters, volunteers, and donors.

You can help make sure Barack Obama is the nominee. Please make an additional donation of $25 now:

https://donate.barackobama.com/results

We want to be clear -- we believe that the winner of a majority of pledged delegates will be and should be the nominee of our party.

And we estimate that after the Oregon and Kentucky primaries on May 20th, we will have won a majority of the overall pledged delegates.

Evidently, the Clinton campaign agrees. According to a recent news report, by even their most optimistic estimates the Clinton Campaign expects to trail by more than 100 pledged delegates and will then ask the superdelegates to overturn the will of the voters.

But we have our own case to make: that millions of Americans volunteering their time and donating in small amounts have built a campaign that has won the most delegates, the most states, and the most votes.

And this campaign -- your campaign -- will be the one that wins the presidency in November and delivers a wave of support for Democrats at every level of office.

Please make an additional donation of $25 now to make it happen:

https://donate.barackobama.com/results

We'll be in touch as the situation evolves.

Thank you,

David

David Plouffe

Campaign Manager

Obama for America

 

[RoarinSonoran]

How much have each of the candidates raised so far?

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.aspLatest March reports: (April reports due May 20)

Total Raised:

Obama: $234,745,081

Clinton: $189,097,053

Raised in March:

Obama - $41,144,348

Clinton - $20,107,968

Debts:

Obama - $662,784

Clinton - $15,321,562

Cash on Hand:

Obama - $51,073,999

Clinton - $31,712,197

Would have liked to have seen McCain's numbers as well, but that's ok.So it takes $250-300mil (more?) to buy an election these days?

 

[adonis]

How much have each of the candidates raised so far?

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.aspLatest March reports: (April reports due May 20)

Total Raised:

Obama: $234,745,081

Clinton: $189,097,053

Raised in March:

Obama - $41,144,348

Clinton - $20,107,968

Debts:

Obama - $662,784

Clinton - $15,321,562

Cash on Hand:

Obama - $51,073,999

Clinton - $31,712,197

Would have liked to have seen McCain's numbers as well, but that's ok.

His numbers are at that link.

 

[Sammy3469]

Basically I think the public is looking to vote democrat because they are hoping for an improvement in the war on terror by changing horses, because they want the democrats to fight inflation, because they think big oil is taking advantage of them.

If the democrats take control of everything, everyone will get a tax hike. We'll see economic policies backfire as they try price controls that lead to massive shortages in gas, milk, etc. The democrats will try emergency countermeasures by heading for what they think are wedge issues like banning the Boy Scouts, eliminating Christmas, banning religion, etc. By 2010, the public sentiment will swing towards the GOP like never before. The repubicans will sweep back into power in congress and Jeb Bush will be primed for his first term in 2012.

This sounds fantastic!

Honestly this part makes perfect sense. If there were massive shortages in milk, we should band the Hindu religion so we could use more sacred cows for milk. Problem solved. Yea to the Democrats.

We could free up some more milk by banning the Indy 500.

That would help with the gas shortage too. Double bonus

There's a gas shortage?

According to BGP there will be a milk and gas shortage

 

[BigSteelThrill]

How much have each of the candidates raised so far?

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.aspLatest March reports: (April reports due May 20)

Total Raised:

Obama: $234,745,081

Clinton: $189,097,053

Raised in March:

Obama - $41,144,348

Clinton - $20,107,968

Debts:

Obama - $662,784

Clinton - $15,321,562

Cash on Hand:

Obama - $51,073,999

Clinton - $31,712,197

Would have liked to have seen McCain's numbers as well, but that's ok.

His numbers are at that link.

McCain hasnt had to spend a dime in the past 3 months.

 

[adonis]

Three Superdelegates Endorse Obama; Delegate Countdown - 170 To Go

By Sam Graham-Felsen - May 7th, 2008 at 2:51 pm EDT

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Chicago, IL – The day after Barack Obama’s commanding victory in North Carolina and tight finish in Indiana, three superdelegates today endorsed Barack Obama.

The three previously uncommitted superdelegates endorsing Obama are North Carolina Democratic Party Chairman Jerry Meek, North Carolina DNC member Jeanette Council, and California DNC member Inola Henry.

These endorsements brings the total number of superdelegates to endorse Obama to 261. Senator Obama is 170 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination.

Chairman Meek said, “Over the past year, I’ve watched as Barack Obama has drawn countless new people to the political process. Although my position as State Chair has led me to remain neutral through the primary, I’ve quietly celebrated as Barack Obama offered new hope to millions of Americans who have lost faith in the American dream after years of disastrous Republican policies. Rarely does a public servant emerge with Barack Obama’s ability to unite our country and produce real change. With Barack Obama as our nominee, North Carolina can deliver its electoral votes to a Democrat and Democratic candidates up and down the ballot will benefit. Barack Obama offers the best chance to take back the White House, elect countless democrats down-ballot, and breathe new life into the Democratic Party.”

Jeanette Council said, “I am pleased today to be endorsing Barack Obama as he continues to unite Americans for change. This election is a unique opportunity for all Americans and Barack Obama’s campaign has inspired and changed the entire face of our country. His campaign has mobilized new people and welcomed people of all ages, races, backgrounds, attracted everyone from first time voters to voters who have participated their entire adult lives. The way he has built a campaign that reflects his message of hope and change and brought all different communities to the table is unlike any campaign I have ever seen.”

Council added, “I am first and foremost a Democrat and the Democratic Party is truly the party of the people, the party of inclusion that wants to engage all people in the political process. This is what Barack Obama has done. Seeing this happen, especially here in North Carolina, has changed me forever and given me hope that we can change this country. I put much thought, consideration and most importantly prayer into this decision, and today I know I am backing a candidate who can put our country on the right path. I’m proud to endorse him today.”

 

[adonis]

He gets an additional Superdelegate, taking total delegates needed to 169.

Obama picks up superdelegate support

Wed May 7, 2:54 PM ET

WASHINGTON - Barack Obama has won the endorsement of four new superdelegates helping push him toward the Democratic presidential nomination, including a backer of rival Hillary Rodham Clinton.

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The support comes the day after Obama's victory in North Carolina and closer than expected finish behind Clinton in Indiana.

Among the supporters is Virginia's Jennifer McClellan, who used to support Clinton.

The Obama campaign announced three other supporters — North Carolina Democratic Party Chairman Jerry Meek, North Carolina Democratic National Committee member Jeanette Council, and California DNC member Inola Henry.

Clinton picked up another delegate in Rep. Heath Shule, who said he would support whoever won his district in North Carolina.

 

[adonis]

Dan Balz's Take

Decision Time for Clinton

By Dan Balz

Hillary Clinton arrived back in Washington early Wednesday morning after a tumultuous and deeply disappointing Tuesday night with no good options, just hard decisions.

The irony is that she produced the split decision in Indiana and North Carolina that everyone said would be enough to keep her candidacy alive. The cruelty is that the "experts" were wrong. By the time she was declared the winner in Indiana, it was clear she had lost virtually all room to maneuver.

I sent a message to one of her most loyal supporters early Wednesday morning asking what are her realistic options? "She has only one option," he replied. "Gracefully exit and help unify the party to beat [John] McCain." How quickly, he was asked. "I would advise them to figure out how to do it as soon as this weekend," he replied.

Another veteran Democrat who has backed Clinton was equally pessimistic in his private assessment. "It's hard to see a path toward the twin goals of Hillary winning and the party uniting," he wrote. "Her strategy cannot be to destroy the village in order to save it. The superdelegate dam is about to break. Hillary losing [George] McGovern is like LBJ losing [former CBS News anchor Walter] Cronkite."

Dealing in analogies of unwinnable wars is where the Clinton camp found itself Wednesday morning. What was mostly implausible on Monday appeared even more implausible Wednesday.

The decision by McGovern, the party's 1972 nominee, to defect to Obama represented a major psychological blow to Clinton's candidacy. On the October day when he endorsed Clinton, McGovern told me he regarded Obama as "another Lincoln." He had decided to support Clinton because he believed Obama was young enough to have a long future -- and, in his estimation, because he believed Clinton could be a better president than was her husband.

At the time, his decision was a blow to the Obama camp, where officials had hoped his obvious admiration for the Illinois senator would translate into a high-profile endorsement. Now McGovern sees Clinton's continued candidacy as a threat to party unity and to the Democrats' chances of winning in November. Clinton's desire to keep going will run smack into that sentiment in many corners of the party.

Two other Democrats described Clinton's options is dire terms. "Withdraw with honor and grace, or lose without either, forever cementing her -- their -- image as selfish, indifferent to party or cause," wrote one of them. The other put it this way: "Wait for him to blow up, which is unlikely given his track record. Or, blow up the party, which party leaders are unlikely to let her do."

Two Democrats made a similar point, which is that that race did not change fundamentally as a result of what happened in Indiana and North Carolina, and yet Clinton emerged in far worse shape than she was the day before the voting.

"The race is, as it has been for some time, in the hands of the superdelegates," wrote Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster. "They seem inclined to support the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates, which will be Obama. To shake that psychology she has to demonstrate that Obama is unelectable. She failed to do that last night, and doesn't have many other opportunities. So at this point she seems largely dependent on a direct, clarion call from Heaven -- which could take the form of a ghastly, but highly unlikely, mistake by Obama."

The other strategist, Jonathan Prince, who was a top adviser to John Edwards's campaign, agreed that the fundamentals Wednesday were as they had been Tuesday: Obama was and is ahead in the delegate count; both still need superdelegates to win the nomination. To gain the nomination she needed and still needs to convince superdelegates that he is a risky choice. To do that, she would try to point to continued victories and Obama's continued weaknesses among white, working-class voters

"Now, that imagined scenario is off the table," he wrote. "Which leaves only this one -- stay in the game, stay focused and hope that he raises doubts again so she can convince superdelegates he's too risky. Basically, she needs an extra-electoral event to push super-

delegates her way (extra as in extra-terrestrial)."

The options are limited for Clinton because she is at a huge financial disadvantage. The campaign announced that she has loaned her campaign another $6.4 million, on top of the $5 million she provided in January. But she will be no match for Obama. As one strategist put it months ago, the one reason candidates quit campaigns is that they run out of money. Clinton could face that in the weeks ahead.

Her route to the nomination also depends on a favorable resolution to the question of seating the Florida and Michigan delegations -- and counting their votes in the tally of popular votes. The Democratic Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee does not meet until May 31 to try to deal with that problem. Given Clinton's precarious situation, it is more difficult to envision an outcome that is as favorable as Clinton needs.

The last six states will award just 217 pledged delegates and there is no realistic prospect for Clinton to overtake Obama in that count. That leaves it up to superdelegates. Clinton will meet with a group of them on Wednesday and Obama will meet with a group on Thursday.

Pat Eddington, a former DNC member from Alabama who was in town for Clinton's Wednesday fundraiser, said the New York senator should stay in the race through the end of the primaries, in part to give the remaining states a chance to participate. Calls from Clinton supporters back home were almost unanimous in that view, she said.

Eddington is an old friend of Clinton's and has raised more than $300,000 for the campaign. She believes that, whether in the White House or in the Senate, Clinton will go down as "one of the greatest fighters" the party has ever seen.

But even in encouraging Clinton to stay in, she does not discount how dire her situation is now -- or the care that must be exercised in the days ahead. "She has to be very positive from this point on." Eddington said.

Eddington, like other Democratic insiders, does not want to see the party ruptured by this battle, and she made clear she would be ready to rally behind Obama at an appropriate time. "I am for Hillary," she said. "But if Obama is the nominee, you will think I gave birth to him."

( )

No one will try to force Clinton out of the race. Campaigning in West Virginia early Wednesday afternoon, she said she would stay in "until there is a nominee." But what she needed on Tuesday did not happen, and she must now rewrite her script for the final stage of the nomination campaign.

 

[bigbottom]

Its pretty easy to see that McCain will landslide over Obama, while Clinton has a strong chance to win in November. The democrat party shouldn't jump off a cliff just because the delegate math says so.

What kind of a landslide are you thinking in terms of electoral votes?

I already said a week or so ago I think McCain would beat Obama with 370 electoral votes give or take. Anywhere from 350-400.

Care to make it interesting?

You mind if I give it a crack?

I already said a week or so ago I think McCain would beat Obama with 370 electoral votes give or take. Anywhere from 350-400. And then Jeanette, breathing in soft gasps, began to unbutton Megan's blouse. Her emotions were aflame, and at war. On the one hand, the daughter of Parson McGreely knew full well that her attraction to the buxom Megan was a mortal sin. But the sight of the stewardess' amber hair, the smooth, sun-browned skin of her legs as the sheer sun dress rode up her perfectly toned thighs, was enough to render every sermon she'd heard in her life meaningless. She lost her last shred of self-control when Megan cupped her buttocks...

Is that more interesting?

BGP needs to hire you as a ghost writer. I'm all atwitter.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

The Gasoline Market

Arnold Kling

Megan McArdle likes to tell a story with charts.

I like to tell it this way. There is a wholesale market for gasoline, and there is a retail market for gasoline. Gas stations buy in the wholesale market and sell in the retail market, with essentially no profit margin.

If I'm a gas station selling for $3.18 a gallon, the instant that the tax is cut by $.18 I have an $.18 profit margin. That is not going to last. It is going to be competed away.

I might try to lower my price and sell more gas. If every gas station does this, then the price goes down and the consumer benefits. But in order to get more gas, I have to bid for it in the wholesale market. And we can't get more gas out of the wholesale market, because for the next few months the supply is essentially fixed. So what's actually going to happen is that the gas stations are going to bid up the price of gas on the wholesale market. In fact, this process is going to reach a point where in order just to keep my share of gas, I'll have to bid higher by $.18. The net result is that more money goes to refiners, my gas station pays less in taxes, but we pay more for gasoline wholesale, and the consumer gets no benefit.

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

The Gasoline Market

Arnold Kling

Megan McArdle likes to tell a story with charts.

I like to tell it this way. There is a wholesale market for gasoline, and there is a retail market for gasoline. Gas stations buy in the wholesale market and sell in the retail market, with essentially no profit margin.

If I'm a gas station selling for $3.18 a gallon, the instant that the tax is cut by $.18 I have an $.18 profit margin. That is not going to last. It is going to be competed away.

I might try to lower my price and sell more gas. If every gas station does this, then the price goes down and the consumer benefits. But in order to get more gas, I have to bid for it in the wholesale market. And we can't get more gas out of the wholesale market, because for the next few months the supply is essentially fixed. So what's actually going to happen is that the gas stations are going to bid up the price of gas on the wholesale market. In fact, this process is going to reach a point where in order just to keep my share of gas, I'll have to bid higher by $.18. The net result is that more money goes to refiners, my gas station pays less in taxes, but we pay more for gasoline wholesale, and the consumer gets no benefit.

Something seems strange about this. Who would bear the burdens if gas taxes were raised by 18 cents for a few months?

 

[datonn]

The Gasoline Market

Arnold Kling

Megan McArdle likes to tell a story with charts.

I like to tell it this way. There is a wholesale market for gasoline, and there is a retail market for gasoline. Gas stations buy in the wholesale market and sell in the retail market, with essentially no profit margin.

If I'm a gas station selling for $3.18 a gallon, the instant that the tax is cut by $.18 I have an $.18 profit margin. That is not going to last. It is going to be competed away.

I might try to lower my price and sell more gas. If every gas station does this, then the price goes down and the consumer benefits. But in order to get more gas, I have to bid for it in the wholesale market. And we can't get more gas out of the wholesale market, because for the next few months the supply is essentially fixed. So what's actually going to happen is that the gas stations are going to bid up the price of gas on the wholesale market. In fact, this process is going to reach a point where in order just to keep my share of gas, I'll have to bid higher by $.18. The net result is that more money goes to refiners, my gas station pays less in taxes, but we pay more for gasoline wholesale, and the consumer gets no benefit.

That Hillary Clinton gas tax holiday had to be the biggest obvious source of pandering that anyone has seen in this campaign. Her own campaign staff basically admitted as much! All in the name of getting a few more slack-jawed yokels to say "Garsh, I'm for that lady....you know, the one that isn't black." Shameful campaigning. But then again, this is the Clintons we are talking about .

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Colbert on the gas tax holiday.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

The Gasoline Market

Arnold Kling

Megan McArdle likes to tell a story with charts.

I like to tell it this way. There is a wholesale market for gasoline, and there is a retail market for gasoline. Gas stations buy in the wholesale market and sell in the retail market, with essentially no profit margin.

If I'm a gas station selling for $3.18 a gallon, the instant that the tax is cut by $.18 I have an $.18 profit margin. That is not going to last. It is going to be competed away.

I might try to lower my price and sell more gas. If every gas station does this, then the price goes down and the consumer benefits. But in order to get more gas, I have to bid for it in the wholesale market. And we can't get more gas out of the wholesale market, because for the next few months the supply is essentially fixed. So what's actually going to happen is that the gas stations are going to bid up the price of gas on the wholesale market. In fact, this process is going to reach a point where in order just to keep my share of gas, I'll have to bid higher by $.18. The net result is that more money goes to refiners, my gas station pays less in taxes, but we pay more for gasoline wholesale, and the consumer gets no benefit.

Something seems strange about this. Who would bear the burdens if gas taxes were raised by 18 cents for a few months?

Click on the "Megan McArdle" link. The effects of raising the tax and the effects of lowering the tax are not symmetrical. If the tax is raised (making gas more expensive), people will collectively buy less gas. But if the tax is decreased (making gas cheaper), people can't collectively buy more gas. In the short term, there's no place to get more gas. The quantity available is fixed. There will be less gas available than people want at the now-cheaper price, which means that the producers will raise the price. They'll raise it by precisely the amount of the tax cut so as to make the price at the pump stay the same -- because that's the price at which the quantity of gas demanded will equal the quantity of gas available. (That's why it was priced that way to begin with.)

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

In Praise of Gas Tax Hysterics

Greg Mankiw

Paul Krugman thinks all of the fuss about the gas tax holiday has become a bit hysterical. He agrees that the policy is a bad idea, but it is no big deal, so let's not focus on it.

Paul is right that the issue is, quantitatively, small potatoes, but I am nonetheless pleased to see it get so much attention. This issue is like the canary in the coal mine: No one really cares about the canary, but its condition tells us about deeper problems that lie below.

Many economic issues (e.g., health care, corporate taxation, the trade deficit) are vastly complicated, with experts holding a variety of opinions. When candidates disagree, it simply means that each is siding with a different set of experts, and it is hard for laymen to figure out which set of experts is right. By contrast, the gas tax holiday is not nearly as complicated, and the experts speak with one voice.

Why, then, are candidates proposing the holiday? I can think of three hypotheses:

Ignorance: They don't know that the consensus of experts is opposed.

Hubris: They know the experts are opposed, but they think they know better.

Mendacity with a dash of condescension: They know the experts are opposed, and they secretly agree, but they think they can win some votes by pulling the wool over the eyes of an ill-informed electorate.

So which of these three hypotheses is right? I don't know, but whichever it is, it says a lot about the character of the candidates.

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

In Praise of Gas Tax Hysterics

Why, then, are candidates proposing the holiday? I can think of three hypotheses:

Ignorance: They don't know that the consensus of experts is opposed.

Hubris: They know the experts are opposed, but they think they know better.

Mendacity with a dash of condescension: They know the experts are opposed, and they secretly agree, but they think they can win some votes by pulling the wool over the eyes of an ill-informed electorate.

So which of these three hypotheses is right? I don't know, but whichever it is, it says a lot about the character of the candidates.

My guess is that it was initially ignorance, and now McCain and Hillary are too afraid to admit they were wrong.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

In Praise of Gas Tax Hysterics

Why, then, are candidates proposing the holiday? I can think of three hypotheses:

Ignorance: They don't know that the consensus of experts is opposed.

Hubris: They know the experts are opposed, but they think they know better.

Mendacity with a dash of condescension: They know the experts are opposed, and they secretly agree, but they think they can win some votes by pulling the wool over the eyes of an ill-informed electorate.

So which of these three hypotheses is right? I don't know, but whichever it is, it says a lot about the character of the candidates.

My guess is that it was initially ignorance, and now McCain and Hillary are too afraid to admit they were wrong.

I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that tax cuts of any sort tend to be politically popular, whether they are good public policy or not.Here's a telling paragraph from this article:

John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee who should know better, was the first presidential candidate to endorse the gas-tax holiday for the summer driving season. Reportedly, the idea originated with a political pollster, not among Mr. McCain's economic advisers. What a surprise.

 

[scoobygang]

In Praise of Gas Tax Hysterics

Why, then, are candidates proposing the holiday? I can think of three hypotheses:

Ignorance: They don't know that the consensus of experts is opposed.

Hubris: They know the experts are opposed, but they think they know better.

Mendacity with a dash of condescension: They know the experts are opposed, and they secretly agree, but they think they can win some votes by pulling the wool over the eyes of an ill-informed electorate.

So which of these three hypotheses is right? I don't know, but whichever it is, it says a lot about the character of the candidates.

My guess is that it was initially ignorance, and now McCain and Hillary are too afraid to admit they were wrong.

But Clinton didn't announce her support until almost a week after McCain "came up" with the plan and every economist in the world called it a bad idea.I think Hillary has taken a lot crap that she hasn't always deserved in this election, but this is pretty much her worst moment of the campaign. It just strikes me as a craven attempt to buy some working class votes.

 

[adonis]

I wonder if Hillary can bow out contingent upon seating Michigan and Florida delegates at the convention. Split the delegates any way you like that doesn't give her a huge amount of either the popular vote or delegates, have her suspend her campaign, have the super delegates push Obama over the magic number, and have the delegates seated.

This way, Hillary, knowing she's lost, can really do some good here. She can get the two states seated with little fear from Obama that it'll affect his winning. It'd be a great move for the party, a great move politically for her as she'd enjoy huge support for her action, and it'd be good for Obama in the general election.

 

[BuddyKnuckles]

Colbert on the gas tax holiday.

 

[Yankee23Fan]

I wonder if Hillary can bow out contingent upon seating Michigan and Florida delegates at the convention. Split the delegates any way you like that doesn't give her a huge amount of either the popular vote or delegates, have her suspend her campaign, have the super delegates push Obama over the magic number, and have the delegates seated.This way, Hillary, knowing she's lost, can really do some good here. She can get the two states seated with little fear from Obama that it'll affect his winning. It'd be a great move for the party, a great move politically for her as she'd enjoy huge support for her action, and it'd be good for Obama in the general election.

Why should she do that?The DNC punished Michigan and Florida because they moved their primary up so that their votes could mean something early and the party was pissed because they didn't want that to happen because a decision too soon is a problem. Yet, now that there is no decision soon enough, somehow the party is in chaos because they might have to want until the actual end to pick a nominee. It's truly comical. You guys are punished for going too soon, but we need a decision soon for the betterment of the party!Seems to me that Michigan and Florida did the right thing, they should be reinstated and Hillary should get teh credit for those states that she deserves.

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

Some good analysis on Clinton's dead campaign.

Can you imagine Hillary Clinton actually giving up her quest for the presidency? Anyone who heard her proclaim "full-speed onto the White House" on Tuesday night and back that up with her declaration Wednesday that "I'm staying in this race until there's a nominee" will find it difficult to visualize what a Clinton concession would look like. She and her husband have been the Democratic establishment for the past 16 years and they have not conceded defeat since he lost the Arkansas governorship in 1980. And she has so recently found an effective political voice, sounding a populist trumpet throughout Pennsylvania and Indiana with an energy that seems inversely related to the health of the economy.

It's hard to admit defeat when you are constantly trying to change the rules of the game. Over the tough weeks of the primary process, Clinton's campaign has managed to make over setbacks and alter the parameters of victory, if not make a run at the rules defining victory itself. When winning the nomination proved to be mathematically impossible, the Clintons made much of the media take seriously the notion that what was more important was surviving until the final round and then prevailing in a winner-take-all vote decided by the people of South Dakota and Montana. (Or, failing that, superdelegates.)

But while the upcoming primaries in West Virginia and Kentucky will undoubtedly test the resolve of pundits whose eulogies for the Clinton campaign can be undone by the whiff of "momentum," we've already seen the final round. And while Barack Obama's 14-point victory in North Carolina — a big state that he was nonetheless expected to win — was decisive, it was his close loss in Indiana that revealed the trends that have brought the Democratic presidential campaign near to a close.

No matter how hard she and her steadfast backers try, the exit polling from Indiana and New Carolina are not going to help make the case for her going on. In order for Clinton to persuade superdelegates to back her over Obama, she needed to demonstrate that she was the less divisive candidate who could win over general election swing voters in states like Indiana. Her aggressive campaign, however, has led to a growing gap — now between 15 and 20 points in Indiana and North Carolina — in the perception that she has been more unfair in her attacks than Obama has.

Clinton's recent embrace of a "gas-tax holiday" — an idea dismissed by others in her party as a bit of ineffective pandering — also reinforced questions about her trustworthiness. In Indiana exit polls, a full quarter of Clinton's own supporters said that they did not think she was honest. Just as Obama suffered in Ohio for looking like he was too political on NAFTA, Clinton's position on the gas tax issue riled Indiana voters, who consistently raised it in conversations with reporters the weekend before the primary vote.

Perhaps the most disturbing indicator for Clinton was the fact that 15% of those who voted for her on Tuesday said they would not back her in November (7% of Obama voters said they would not support him in the general election). Some conservative commentators like Rush Limbaugh have urged Republicans in the remaining primary states to prolong the process by casting votes for Clinton, who they think would be an easier opponent for John McCain. Numbers like this, whch some pundits claimed meant that Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" helped put Clinton over the top in Indiana, are watched closely by superdelegates and do not ease their concerns about Clinton's electability.

The Indiana numbers also undercut Clinton's implicit argument that the white working-class voters who support her over Obama would not vote for him over McCain in November. From Ohio to Pennsylvania to Indiana, Obama has either narrowed or eliminated Clinton's lead among those with no college education (65% of all Indiana voters), Catholics, white women, regular church-attendees, those in union households and those making less than $50,000. And he has even inched his way up the age ladder, drawing even with her among voters between the ages of 45 and 59. In fact, if it weren't for voters over the age of 65 — who made up 14% of the Democratic electorate in Indiana and who supported Clinton 69 to 31 over Obama — the Senator from Illinois would have cleaned up in the state.

What Obama advisers hope is that their candidate will soon have the opportunity to introduce himself to voters on his own terms, free from attacks within his own party and the magnifying glasses of the press corps. Media coverage in the past few weeks reached previously unseen levels of absurdity as pundits debated whether it was a sign of elitism that Obama prefers juice to coffee, whether his basketball playing made him seem too ghetto or too rarefied, and whether he should start smoking again in order to relate to Jack and Jill America.

For that to happen, however, Hillary Clinton will have to step out of the race. When that might happen, and what it would look like, remains the great unknown of the Democratic race. On the one hand, the path offstage seems obvious. On the heels of Tuesday's disappointing results, Clinton's advisers acknowledged that she has been forced to loan her campaign an additional $6.4 million in order to stay afloat. One of her key supporters, Senator George McGovern, announced on Wednesday that he is shifting his backing to Obama.

Those who know Clinton say she may in the end be trapped by the historic nature of her candidacy. She tells friends that as the first significant female candidate for the presidency, she doesn't feel that she can just quit. But neither does she want to go out with a whimper, tallying up her delegate totals on June 3 and meekly accepting the fact that she has come up short. Her exit from the race will require classic Clinton political magic. And although we don't know when or how it will come, it's guaranteed to be a showstopper.

 

[Spiderman]

I wonder if Hillary can bow out contingent upon seating Michigan and Florida delegates at the convention. Split the delegates any way you like that doesn't give her a huge amount of either the popular vote or delegates, have her suspend her campaign, have the super delegates push Obama over the magic number, and have the delegates seated.

This way, Hillary, knowing she's lost, can really do some good here. She can get the two states seated with little fear from Obama that it'll affect his winning. It'd be a great move for the party, a great move politically for her as she'd enjoy huge support for her action, and it'd be good for Obama in the general election.

Why should she do that?The DNC punished Michigan and Florida because they moved their primary up so that their votes could mean something early and the party was pissed because they didn't want that to happen because a decision too soon is a problem. Yet, now that there is no decision soon enough, somehow the party is in chaos because they might have to want until the actual end to pick a nominee. It's truly comical. You guys are punished for going too soon, but we need a decision soon for the betterment of the party!

Seems to me that Michigan and Florida did the right thing, they should be reinstated and Hillary should get teh credit for those states that she deserves.

Why does she deserve those states ? Shouldn't there be a revote at least ?

 

[Yankee23Fan]

I wonder if Hillary can bow out contingent upon seating Michigan and Florida delegates at the convention. Split the delegates any way you like that doesn't give her a huge amount of either the popular vote or delegates, have her suspend her campaign, have the super delegates push Obama over the magic number, and have the delegates seated.

This way, Hillary, knowing she's lost, can really do some good here. She can get the two states seated with little fear from Obama that it'll affect his winning. It'd be a great move for the party, a great move politically for her as she'd enjoy huge support for her action, and it'd be good for Obama in the general election.

Why should she do that?The DNC punished Michigan and Florida because they moved their primary up so that their votes could mean something early and the party was pissed because they didn't want that to happen because a decision too soon is a problem. Yet, now that there is no decision soon enough, somehow the party is in chaos because they might have to want until the actual end to pick a nominee. It's truly comical. You guys are punished for going too soon, but we need a decision soon for the betterment of the party!

Seems to me that Michigan and Florida did the right thing, they should be reinstated and Hillary should get teh credit for those states that she deserves.

Why does she deserve those states ? Shouldn't there be a revote at least ?

Why? Did they break any laws holding their vote?

 

[flufhed]

Anyone that doesn't think Operation Chaos has had a meaningful affect on this race in the last month or so is really fooling themselves.

You can say what you want about Limbaugh, but the guy is a pro, he is wildly popular, many of his listeners are politically savvy, and when he says jump, they generally jump. Add to that the fact that many conservatives are p##### that McCain got the nomination, and feeling that the media and moderates and independents helped get him the nomination, and I can't see how you didn't have enough people on board to make a difference

What is strange is that the media, which supposedly is in the tank for Democrats, and especially Obama, does not seem willing to admit the obvious - that Operation Chaos has had an effect. Maybe they just don't want to admit Rush has that kind of power, but I really think that he does.

 

[flufhed]

I wonder if Hillary can bow out contingent upon seating Michigan and Florida delegates at the convention. Split the delegates any way you like that doesn't give her a huge amount of either the popular vote or delegates, have her suspend her campaign, have the super delegates push Obama over the magic number, and have the delegates seated.

This way, Hillary, knowing she's lost, can really do some good here. She can get the two states seated with little fear from Obama that it'll affect his winning. It'd be a great move for the party, a great move politically for her as she'd enjoy huge support for her action, and it'd be good for Obama in the general election.

Why should she do that?The DNC punished Michigan and Florida because they moved their primary up so that their votes could mean something early and the party was pissed because they didn't want that to happen because a decision too soon is a problem. Yet, now that there is no decision soon enough, somehow the party is in chaos because they might have to want until the actual end to pick a nominee. It's truly comical. You guys are punished for going too soon, but we need a decision soon for the betterment of the party!

Seems to me that Michigan and Florida did the right thing, they should be reinstated and Hillary should get teh credit for those states that she deserves.

Why does she deserve those states ? Shouldn't there be a revote at least ?

Why? Did they break any laws holding their vote?

I can't believe we are still going over and over this. What's there to talk about? Florida, you could say there is some argument there. Both candidates were on the ballot. People gloss over the fact that no one was allowed to campaign there, but that was a huge factor when you are the insurgent, unknown guy like Obama was early on, going against the big name, establishment candidate. but no matter what, Hillary would have won Florida and, hey, at least Obama was on the ballot.

But Michigan there is no argument. None at all. Obama took his name off the ballot as he was told to do by the dem leadership. He had NO chance to get any votes. Yet still, there was a HUGE amount of people who voted, essentially, none of the above. I thought that was extremely impressive that so many people would come out, in a meaningless primary, just to vote none of the above. Counting Michigan makes no sense, but if you did do it, you would at the very least have to give Obama the delegates for "undecided."

It sounds great in a soundbite, but there is no legit argument for just "letting the votes count."

 

[Abashail]

I wonder if Hillary can bow out contingent upon seating Michigan and Florida delegates at the convention. Split the delegates any way you like that doesn't give her a huge amount of either the popular vote or delegates, have her suspend her campaign, have the super delegates push Obama over the magic number, and have the delegates seated.This way, Hillary, knowing she's lost, can really do some good here. She can get the two states seated with little fear from Obama that it'll affect his winning. It'd be a great move for the party, a great move politically for her as she'd enjoy huge support for her action, and it'd be good for Obama in the general election.

Why should she do that?The DNC punished Michigan and Florida because they moved their primary up so that their votes could mean something early and the party was pissed because they didn't want that to happen because a decision too soon is a problem. Yet, now that there is no decision soon enough, somehow the party is in chaos because they might have to want until the actual end to pick a nominee. It's truly comical. You guys are punished for going too soon, but we need a decision soon for the betterment of the party!Seems to me that Michigan and Florida did the right thing, they should be reinstated and Hillary should get teh credit for those states that she deserves.

Sometimes it's hard to tell when you're joking or not.