*** Official Barack Obama FBG campaign headquarters *** (3 Viewers)

[Jeremy]

That's just sad.

As annoying as he can be on this topic, LHUCKS isn't that far off. Sad.

But we mustn't say anything disparaging lest we be labled as elitists. So I guess we'll just have to say these are legitamate concerns that Obama will have to address if he's to become president.

 

[Spiderman]

Obama / Webb 2008

It may have just rhetoric, but Webb has been actually saying he doesn't want to be the VP as opposed to others who say they love their current jobs.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Dedicated Obama Supporter:

"He does this all day and the closer we come to the final nomination the more excited he's become. "

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Obama would edge McCain in Pa., new poll shows

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Democratic Sen. Barack Obama would defeat Republican Sen. John McCain in Pennsylvania if the November election was held today, according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll released this morning.

The poll indicates Mr. Obama -- if he holds on to edge Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination -- would edge Mr. McCain, 46 to 40 percent, despite losing the white vote by four points in the state.

"One reason Obama is having trouble among whites in Pennsylvania is the fact that almost one-third of the voters who support Sen. Hillary Clinton say they would vote for McCain over Obama in the general election," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

The Quinnipiac poll was conducted simultaneously in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, asking registered voters their opinions of 2008 presidential hopefuls. Because of the pivotal role these states play in the Electoral College, Quinnipiac University is paying special attention to voter opinions in the states.

 

[adonis]

New Poll Finds Big Shift Toward Obama

Californians give Obama a significant edge over Clinton and McCain

By Justin Ewers

Posted May 22, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO—A new poll released today in California finds political momentum shifting dramatically toward Barack Obama—and away from both Hillary Clinton and John McCain—in the nation's most populous state. According to a survey conducted over the past 10 days by the Public Policy Institute of California, 59 percent of likely voters here now have a "favorable" impression of Democrat Obama, while a majority view both of the other candidates unfavorably. In a state whose Democratic primary Clinton won in February, 51 percent of voters now say they have an unfavorable opinion of her; 53 percent of voters feel the same way about Republican McCain.

Obama, meanwhile, seems to be making strides across nearly every constituency. If the general election were held today, 54 percent of Californians say they would vote for him, compared with 37 percent for McCain. That gap has widened by 8 points since March. Obama enjoys the support of more than 80 percent of Democrats here, along with over half (55 percent) of independents. He leads McCain among men and women and is viewed favorably by nearly 70 percent of Latinos—a powerful political group, experts note, not just in California but in several other western states, including Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.

While there has been an epidemic of hand-wringing among Democratic political analysts over Obama's inability to win over low-income white voters in states like Kentucky and West Virginia, where Clinton has dominated recent primaries, California seems to be a different story. Obama leads McCain by a double-digit margin here among likely voters, no matter what their incomes. He enjoys a 55-to-35 percent lead among those who make less than $40,000 a year, including whites; a 55-to-36 percent lead among those who make between $40,000 and $80,000; and a 53-to-37 percent lead among those who make $80,000 or more.

"As the presidential campaign has moved further away from California, what's been taking place is solid support among Democrats and increasing support among independent voters," says Mark Baldassare, president of the Public Policy Institute of California, the nonpartisan group that released the poll, which surveyed more than 2,000 voters. "John McCain is certainly going to have his work cut out for him here."

Before it comes to that, the survey may offer a much-needed boost to the Obama campaign, which has faced questions—many of them from Clinton herself—about its candidate's general election chances after dramatic defeats in West Virginia and Kentucky. The new poll, Baldassare says, not only demonstrates how difficult it may be to pigeonhole white working-class voters, many of whom turned their backs on Obama in the South, but it also reveals how much voters' views can evolve once the acrimony of the primary season begins to fade. In California, at least, Latinos and low-income whites—two groups who strongly supported Clinton in the state's primary—have rallied behind their second choice in the months since February. "These numbers are particularly telling in a state that Clinton won easily," says Baldassare. "For Democrats who supported Clinton, time has passed, and looking at the general election, up against McCain, they are coming together."

 

[Mr. Pickles]

Dedicated Obama Supporter:

Appropriately strange.

 

[Mr. Pickles]

People are idiots. Obama has huge problems in places like W Virginia.

Video

TRACY, CLINTON SUPPORTER: My opinion is I think the United States of America should be run by somebody from the United States of America.

PALEVSKY: But he's from the US. He's born here. He's been raised here.

TRACY: And he's Muslim.

PALEVSKY: But why do you think he's Muslim? He wasn't raised Muslim.

TRACY: But I don't agree with that.

JANET: You feel like there's a lie behind it.

TRACY: Yeah, I don't agree with that.

PALEVSKY: And you voted for—

ASHLEY: Hillary. And if she loses the nomination I’ll vote for the other guy.

PALEVSKY: You’ll vote for McCain?

ASHLEY: Yes. I don’t feel like—put the black man there—no prejudice or nothing but I just don’t have—I just think he should not be there.

SHARON: That's the problem. I don't know where he stands. You know, I don't feel comfortable, whereas I know Hillary knows what "The Pledge of Allegiance" is. Hillary knows, can probably sing "The Star Spangled Banner" better than anybody. So can John McCain. At least I know that they believe in this country. They believe in who we are and how when times are bad we pull together, 'cause we're Americans. But the whole Yankeee-do-it ethic, you know, I just don't sense that from him.

Stuff like this makes me physically ill.

 

[Sammy3469]

Obama / Webb 2008

It may have just rhetoric, but Webb has been actually saying he doesn't want to be the VP as opposed to others who say they love their current jobs.

X....Try again....When asked, he's been saying he likes being in the Senate and basically avoided answering the question. He's on the shortlist and is probably 1 or 1a at this point.

 

[flufhed]

Obama / Webb 2008

It may have just rhetoric, but Webb has been actually saying he doesn't want to be the VP as opposed to others who say they love their current jobs.

X....Try again....When asked, he's been saying he likes being in the Senate and basically avoided answering the question. He's on the shortlist and is probably 1 or 1a at this point.

As well he should be.I would hate to take an up and comer like that in a hotly contested state out of the Senate, but the guy would bring ALOT to the ticket. Almost a no-brainer, although I am intrigued by the Gov of Kansas, too.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Our daily "Obama gains delegates, moves closer to nomination." headline

LINK

CONCORD, N.H. - Barack Obama inched closer to securing the Democratic presidential nomination on Friday, picking up five delegates, including a California congressman who switched his allegiance from Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Bolded my favorite part.

 

[Mr. Pickles]

Our daily "Obama gains delegates, moves closer to nomination." headline

LINK

CONCORD, N.H. - Barack Obama inched closer to securing the Democratic presidential nomination on Friday, picking up five delegates, including a California congressman who switched his allegiance from Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Bolded my favorite part.

He's done this a few times now.There was some talk recently about a big group of House members (some 50+) who were uniting to disclose their support soon. If they all broke to Obama, they could basically end this today.

 

[skol asylum]

40 Clinton superdelegates ready to jump ship?

 

[SHIZNITTTT]

My silly aunt from Kentucky called me tonight and said that Obama was getting all of his campaign money from Iraq! How do people like this not just drown in the rain. or go blind from staring at the sun!?

 

[IvanKaramazov]

My silly aunt from Kentucky called me tonight and said that Obama was getting all of his campaign money from Iraq! How do people like this not just drown in the rain. or go blind from staring at the sun!?

What an idiot. Everybody knows Obama gets his money directly from al Qaeda.

 

[Gopher State]

The White Stuff

A new NEWSWEEK Poll underscores Obama's racial challenge.

By Jonathan Darman | Newsweek Web Exclusive

May 23, 2008 | Updated: 7:41 p.m. ET May 23, 2008

Even as he closes in on the Democratic nomination for the presidency, Sen. Barack Obama is facing lingering problems winning the support of white voters--including some in his own party. In a new NEWSWEEK Poll of registered voters, Obama trails presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain 40 percent to 52 percent among whites. Sen. Hillary Clinton, Obama's challenger for the Democratic nomination, also trails McCain among white voters but by a smaller margin, 44 percent to 48 percent.

Among voters overall, however, Obama fares better, tying McCain 46 percent to 46 percent in a hypothetical match-up. (That's down slightly, within the margin of error, from the last NEWSWEEK Poll, conducted in late April, in which Obama led McCain 47 percent to 44 percent). In that contest, he is boosted by a strong showing among nonwhites, leading McCain 68 percent to 25 percent (Clinton leads McCain 65 percent to 25 percent among nonwhites). But even this result shows some of the electoral challenges facing Obama in a year when Democrats generally appear to hold an electoral advantage--boasting a 15 point advantage in generic party identification over Republicans, 53 percent to 38 percent. Clinton fares slightly better against McCain: 48 percent to 44 percent (within the margin of error). She enjoys this slight edge even though Obama leads Clinton 50 percent to 42 percent as the choice of registered Democrats for the party's nomination. Clinton's white support is unusually high: at a comparable point in the 2004 election, Democratic nominee John Kerry received the support of 36 percent of white voters, compared to George W. Bush's 48 percent, and in June of 2000, Bush led Al Gore 48 percent to 39 percent.

Obama's race may well explain his difficulty in winning over white voters. In the NEWSWEEK Poll, participants were asked to answer questions on a variety of race-related topics including racial preferences, interracial marriage, attitudes toward social welfare and general attitudes toward African-Americans. Respondents were grouped according to their answers on a "Racial Resentment Index." Among white Democrats with a low Racial Resentment Index rating, Obama beat McCain in a hypothetical match-up 78 percent to 17 percent. That is virtually identical to Clinton's margin in the category, 79 percent to 13 percent. But among white Democrats with high scores on the Racial Resentment Index, the picture was very different: Obama led McCain by only 18 points (51 to 33) while Clinton maintained a much larger 59-point lead (78 to 18).

Who exactly are these high Racial Resentment Index voters? A majority, 61 percent, have less than a four-year college education, many are older (44 percent were over the age of 60 compared to just 18 percent under the age of 40) and nearly half (46 percent) live in the South.

Confusion over Obama's religious background may also be hindering his ability to attract white support. Asked to name Obama's faith, 58 percent of participants said Christian (the correct answer), compared with 11 percent who answered Muslim, 22 percent who did not know and 9 percent who said something else. Obama's name could be contributing to the confusion; 18 percent of white Democratic voters say they judge the Illinois senator less favorably because of his name, compared to only 4 percent of white Democrats who say it makes them judge Obama more favorably.

While the NEWSWEEK Poll clearly suggests a lurking racial bias in the American electorate, the role of race in presidential politics may be diminishing. In 2000, only 37 percent of voters thought the country was ready for a black president. Now, 70 percent of voters think a black candidate like Obama could win the White House.

Methodology Statement

The NEWSWEEK Poll was conducted May 21-22 by Princeton Survey Research Associates. It is based on telephone interviews with 1,205 registered voters nationwide and has an overall margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points. Among Democrats and Democratic leaners, the margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

© 2008

The inability of Obama to win over small town U.S.A and blue collar workers will be the difference this fall. However, most of this stuff is beyond his control

 

[Gopher State]

May 26, 2008

Clinton crowd boos mention of Obama

From CNN Political Producer Peter Hamby

Clinton’s campaign is hoping to score a significant popular vote win in Puerto Rico.

PONCE, Puerto Rico (CNN) – Hillary Clinton held the most raucous rally of her Puerto Rico campaign swing on Monday in front of several hundred members of the Servidores Públicos Unidos union, who shimmied to live music before the event and cheered on the senator with chants of “Si se puede!”

The union operates as an affiliate of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, which has endorsed Clinton and spent millions on her campaign’s behalf. AFSCME President Gerald McEntee was on hand in Ponce to introduce Clinton, but he spent a good chunk of his speech soliciting boos for Barack Obama.

“Obama was here twice,” McEntee said, painting the Illinois senator as a Johnny-come-lately to the issues affecting Puerto Ricans. “Once to raise money. He was here for two hours, and he left, and he went on vacation. Then he came back this past weekend for two days, then he left again.”

An energetic Clinton, assisted by a translator, delivered a speech similar to others she has made on the island, pledging to offer economic incentives to the island, promising to resolve the issue of Puerto Rico’s status by the end of her first term, and reminding voters that she represents an estimated one million Puerto Ricans in New York.

In the middle of her remarks, as the audience chanted “Si se puede!” — a phrase that's been co-opted by

 

[cobalt_27]

May 26, 2008Clinton crowd boos mention of ObamaFrom CNN Political Producer Peter Hamby Clinton’s campaign is hoping to score a significant popular vote win in Puerto Rico.PONCE, Puerto Rico (CNN) – Hillary Clinton held the most raucous rally of her Puerto Rico campaign swing on Monday in front of several hundred members of the Servidores Públicos Unidos union, who shimmied to live music before the event and cheered on the senator with chants of “Si se puede!”The union operates as an affiliate of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, which has endorsed Clinton and spent millions on her campaign’s behalf. AFSCME President Gerald McEntee was on hand in Ponce to introduce Clinton, but he spent a good chunk of his speech soliciting boos for Barack Obama.“Obama was here twice,” McEntee said, painting the Illinois senator as a Johnny-come-lately to the issues affecting Puerto Ricans. “Once to raise money. He was here for two hours, and he left, and he went on vacation. Then he came back this past weekend for two days, then he left again.”An energetic Clinton, assisted by a translator, delivered a speech similar to others she has made on the island, pledging to offer economic incentives to the island, promising to resolve the issue of Puerto Rico’s status by the end of her first term, and reminding voters that she represents an estimated one million Puerto Ricans in New York.In the middle of her remarks, as the audience chanted “Si se puede!” — a phrase that's been co-opted by

There's still hope, GS! She could win this thing, still.

 

[bigbottom]

May 26, 2008

Clinton crowd boos mention of Obama

From CNN Political Producer Peter Hamby

Clinton’s campaign is hoping to score a significant popular vote win in Puerto Rico.

PONCE, Puerto Rico (CNN) – Hillary Clinton held the most raucous rally of her Puerto Rico campaign swing on Monday in front of several hundred members of the Servidores Públicos Unidos union, who shimmied to live music before the event and cheered on the senator with chants of “Si se puede!”

The union operates as an affiliate of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, which has endorsed Clinton and spent millions on her campaign’s behalf. AFSCME President Gerald McEntee was on hand in Ponce to introduce Clinton, but he spent a good chunk of his speech soliciting boos for Barack Obama.

“Obama was here twice,” McEntee said, painting the Illinois senator as a Johnny-come-lately to the issues affecting Puerto Ricans. “Once to raise money. He was here for two hours, and he left, and he went on vacation. Then he came back this past weekend for two days, then he left again.”

An energetic Clinton, assisted by a translator, delivered a speech similar to others she has made on the island, pledging to offer economic incentives to the island, promising to resolve the issue of Puerto Rico’s status by the end of her first term, and reminding voters that she represents an estimated one million Puerto Ricans in New York.

In the middle of her remarks, as the audience chanted “Si se puede!” — a phrase that's been co-opted by

I'm on the edge of my seat!

 

[Mr. Pickles]

Gopher State is sure that 25% of Hillary's supporters will vote for McCain.

 

[Spiderman]

Gopher State is sure that 25% of Hillary's supporters will vote for McCain.

Aren't exit polling in most states showing at least that?

 

[Mr. Pickles]

Gopher State is sure that 25% of Hillary's supporters will vote for McCain.

Aren't exit polling in most states showing at least that?

In the heat of battle, do you really think people are giving an accurate portrayal of what they will do in November? I don't. Even George Will doesn't.

 

[Spiderman]

Gopher State is sure that 25% of Hillary's supporters will vote for McCain.

Aren't exit polling in most states showing at least that?

In the heat of battle, do you really think people are giving an accurate portrayal of what they will do in November? I don't. Even George Will doesn't.

Perhaps, but I'm sure we'd be hearing how united the party was if these polls didn't show that.

 

[Mr. Pickles]

Gopher State is sure that 25% of Hillary's supporters will vote for McCain.

Aren't exit polling in most states showing at least that?

In the heat of battle, do you really think people are giving an accurate portrayal of what they will do in November? I don't. Even George Will doesn't.

Perhaps, but I'm sure we'd be hearing how united the party was if these polls didn't show that.

It's a contentious battle. I don't expect any poll will accurately reflect much relevant to November.

 

[cartel]

Gopher State is sure that 25% of Hillary's supporters will vote for McCain.

Aren't exit polling in most states showing at least that?

In the heat of battle, do you really think people are giving an accurate portrayal of what they will do in November? I don't. Even George Will doesn't.

Perhaps, but I'm sure we'd be hearing how united the party was if these polls didn't show that.

It's a contentious battle. I don't expect any poll will accurately reflect much relevant to November.

I think McCain has an opening. People are pissed right now but June is along way from November.

 

[Voltaire]

Gopher State is sure that 25% of Hillary's supporters will vote for McCain.

Aren't exit polling in most states showing at least that?

In the heat of battle, do you really think people are giving an accurate portrayal of what they will do in November? I don't. Even George Will doesn't.

Perhaps, but I'm sure we'd be hearing how united the party was if these polls didn't show that.

It's a contentious battle. I don't expect any poll will accurately reflect much relevant to November.

I would like to take this time to remind everyone that Obama still leads McCain in the polls even without those Hillary supporters. He also polls better in states with large amounts of blue collar voters like Michigan, New Mexico, Iowa, and Colorado.The more you know.

 

[Spiderman]

Gopher State is sure that 25% of Hillary's supporters will vote for McCain.

Aren't exit polling in most states showing at least that?

In the heat of battle, do you really think people are giving an accurate portrayal of what they will do in November? I don't. Even George Will doesn't.

Perhaps, but I'm sure we'd be hearing how united the party was if these polls didn't show that.

It's a contentious battle. I don't expect any poll will accurately reflect much relevant to November.

I would like to take this time to remind everyone that Obama still leads McCain in the polls even without those Hillary supporters. He also polls better in states with large amounts of blue collar voters like Michigan, New Mexico, Iowa, and Colorado.The more you know.

First off, the latest Gallup (think it was them) has McCain now up by 2 points. Second...even if McCain is behind in other polls (and the last time I looked, they were split and/or within the margin of error), he's ahead by most accounts in the electoral college because he's beating Obama in some key swing states.

 

[Voltaire]

Gopher State is sure that 25% of Hillary's supporters will vote for McCain.

Aren't exit polling in most states showing at least that?

In the heat of battle, do you really think people are giving an accurate portrayal of what they will do in November? I don't. Even George Will doesn't.

Perhaps, but I'm sure we'd be hearing how united the party was if these polls didn't show that.

It's a contentious battle. I don't expect any poll will accurately reflect much relevant to November.

I would like to take this time to remind everyone that Obama still leads McCain in the polls even without those Hillary supporters. He also polls better in states with large amounts of blue collar voters like Michigan, New Mexico, Iowa, and Colorado.

The more you know.

First off, the latest Gallup (think it was them) has McCain now up by 2 points. Second...even if McCain is behind in other polls (and the last time I looked, they were split and/or within the margin of error), he's ahead by most accounts in the electoral college because he's beating Obama in some key swing states.

Wrong again.That website uses a weighted average of several state polls. I'm floored at the Clinton advantage though. Last week she and Obama each had about 275 electoral votes, she must have had an impressive week from a polling standpoint.

 

[Spiderman]

Gopher State is sure that 25% of Hillary's supporters will vote for McCain.

Aren't exit polling in most states showing at least that?

In the heat of battle, do you really think people are giving an accurate portrayal of what they will do in November? I don't. Even George Will doesn't.

Perhaps, but I'm sure we'd be hearing how united the party was if these polls didn't show that.

It's a contentious battle. I don't expect any poll will accurately reflect much relevant to November.

I would like to take this time to remind everyone that Obama still leads McCain in the polls even without those Hillary supporters. He also polls better in states with large amounts of blue collar voters like Michigan, New Mexico, Iowa, and Colorado.

The more you know.

First off, the latest Gallup (think it was them) has McCain now up by 2 points. Second...even if McCain is behind in other polls (and the last time I looked, they were split and/or within the margin of error), he's ahead by most accounts in the electoral college because he's beating Obama in some key swing states.

Wrong again.That website uses a weighted average of several state polls. I'm floored at the Clinton advantage though. Last week she and Obama each had about 275 electoral votes, she must have had an impressive week from a polling standpoint.

I'm having a hard time trusting this site when they have Obama up by 7 points right now....I've seen quite a few electoral college maps in the past few weeks, and McCain has been in front.

 

[the moops]

I'm having a hard time trusting this site when they have Obama up by 7 points right now....I've seen quite a few electoral college maps in the past few weeks, and McCain has been in front.

Maybe you could show us your trusted maps then.

 

[Voltaire]

Gopher State is sure that 25% of Hillary's supporters will vote for McCain.

Aren't exit polling in most states showing at least that?

In the heat of battle, do you really think people are giving an accurate portrayal of what they will do in November? I don't. Even George Will doesn't.

Perhaps, but I'm sure we'd be hearing how united the party was if these polls didn't show that.

It's a contentious battle. I don't expect any poll will accurately reflect much relevant to November.

I would like to take this time to remind everyone that Obama still leads McCain in the polls even without those Hillary supporters. He also polls better in states with large amounts of blue collar voters like Michigan, New Mexico, Iowa, and Colorado.

The more you know.

First off, the latest Gallup (think it was them) has McCain now up by 2 points. Second...even if McCain is behind in other polls (and the last time I looked, they were split and/or within the margin of error), he's ahead by most accounts in the electoral college because he's beating Obama in some key swing states.

Wrong again.That website uses a weighted average of several state polls. I'm floored at the Clinton advantage though. Last week she and Obama each had about 275 electoral votes, she must have had an impressive week from a polling standpoint.

I'm having a hard time trusting this site when they have Obama up by 7 points right now....I've seen quite a few electoral college maps in the past few weeks, and McCain has been in front.

That's cool. This is all meaningless right now anyway. But I started visting that site regularly when they nailed the NC primary (and later the Indiana). Their math is usually pretty solid, and they use several polls per state.

 

[cartel]

Gopher State is sure that 25% of Hillary's supporters will vote for McCain.

Aren't exit polling in most states showing at least that?

In the heat of battle, do you really think people are giving an accurate portrayal of what they will do in November? I don't. Even George Will doesn't.

Perhaps, but I'm sure we'd be hearing how united the party was if these polls didn't show that.

It's a contentious battle. I don't expect any poll will accurately reflect much relevant to November.

I would like to take this time to remind everyone that Obama still leads McCain in the polls even without those Hillary supporters. He also polls better in states with large amounts of blue collar voters like Michigan, New Mexico, Iowa, and Colorado.

The more you know.

First off, the latest Gallup (think it was them) has McCain now up by 2 points. Second...even if McCain is behind in other polls (and the last time I looked, they were split and/or within the margin of error), he's ahead by most accounts in the electoral college because he's beating Obama in some key swing states.

Wrong again.That website uses a weighted average of several state polls. I'm floored at the Clinton advantage though. Last week she and Obama each had about 275 electoral votes, she must have had an impressive week from a polling standpoint.

Yea I actually figured Obama would be doing better in Missouri and Nevada...

 

[Spiderman]

The map basically shows the left coast going to Obama w/ Colorado, New Mexico, and Hawaii. Everything else west of the Missouri River goes to McCain (12 states). The entire South goes to McCain below Illinois, including Midwestern States like Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Missouri. Obama takes Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois. The entire Mid-Atlantic Region goes to McCain, but the New England States to go Obama. McCain sneaks in for New Hampshire and New Jersey.

Obama can turn the race by taking New Jersey, Wisconsin, and Ohio. Pennsylvania combined with New England, the West (Left) Coast, and the northern Midwest (Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota), is not enough by itself, even with New Jersey folded in.

Those swing States will be critical for Obama. If Obama takes every State w/i the polls margin of error, he wins a close one, 288 - 250 without carrying Ohio and Florida. But he does this by taking Michigan. That State is key from a disenfranchising perspective. W/O Michigan, he still wins, but by 4 electoral votes. That's as narrow as it gets, folks.

The bottom line is that I'm currently pegging their chances at winning the General Election at:

John McCain = 53.9%

Barack Obama = 46.1%

 

[cartel]

The map basically shows the left coast going to Obama w/ Colorado, New Mexico, and Hawaii. Everything else west of the Missouri River goes to McCain (12 states). The entire South goes to McCain below Illinois, including Midwestern States like Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Missouri. Obama takes Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois. The entire Mid-Atlantic Region goes to McCain, but the New England States to go Obama. McCain sneaks in for New Hampshire and New Jersey. Obama can turn the race by taking New Jersey, Wisconsin, and Ohio. Pennsylvania combined with New England, the West (Left) Coast, and the northern Midwest (Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota), is not enough by itself, even with New Jersey folded in. Those swing States will be critical for Obama. If Obama takes every State w/i the polls margin of error, he wins a close one, 288 - 250 without carrying Ohio and Florida. But he does this by taking Michigan. That State is key from a disenfranchising perspective. W/O Michigan, he still wins, but by 4 electoral votes. That's as narrow as it gets, folks. The bottom line is that I'm currently pegging their chances at winning the General Election at: John McCain = 53.9% Barack Obama = 46.1%

How did you come up with that a precise percentage?PS I have Obama as the favorite but think a McCain upset is easily in the cards.

 

[Voltaire]

The map basically shows the left coast going to Obama w/ Colorado, New Mexico, and Hawaii. Everything else west of the Missouri River goes to McCain (12 states). The entire South goes to McCain below Illinois, including Midwestern States like Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Missouri. Obama takes Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois. The entire Mid-Atlantic Region goes to McCain, but the New England States to go Obama. McCain sneaks in for New Hampshire and New Jersey.

Obama can turn the race by taking New Jersey, Wisconsin, and Ohio. Pennsylvania combined with New England, the West (Left) Coast, and the northern Midwest (Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota), is not enough by itself, even with New Jersey folded in.

Those swing States will be critical for Obama. If Obama takes every State w/i the polls margin of error, he wins a close one, 288 - 250 without carrying Ohio and Florida. But he does this by taking Michigan. That State is key from a disenfranchising perspective. W/O Michigan, he still wins, but by 4 electoral votes. That's as narrow as it gets, folks.

The bottom line is that I'm currently pegging their chances at winning the General Election at:

John McCain = 53.9%

Barack Obama = 46.1%

I can give you NH, it's virtually tied right now, but there's no evidence of a McCain advantage in NJ.

 

[Mr. Pickles]

I think it was Will that said he's surprised McCain isn't up by 15 or so right now. This is the apex of his campaign from here to the election.

 

[the moops]

John McCain = 53.9% Barack Obama = 46.1%

Are the decimals really necessary in your made up percentages?

 

[Voltaire]

John McCain = 53.9% Barack Obama = 46.1%

Are the decimals really necessary in your made up percentages?

To be fair, I'm pretty sure he copied and pasted that from a web site with some math backing (although it's poor math if they give NJ to McCain).

 

[RoarinSonoran]

The bottom line is that I'm currently pegging their chances at winning the General Election at: John McCain = 53.9% Barack Obama = 46.1%

How did you come up with that a precise percentage?

It was actually 53.8723272% - 46.1276728%, and then he rounded to the nearest tenth. HTH

 

[Voltaire]

The White Stuff

A new NEWSWEEK Poll underscores Obama's racial challenge.

By Jonathan Darman | Newsweek Web Exclusive

May 23, 2008 | Updated: 7:41 p.m. ET May 23, 2008

Even as he closes in on the Democratic nomination for the presidency, Sen. Barack Obama is facing lingering problems winning the support of white voters--including some in his own party. In a new NEWSWEEK Poll of registered voters, Obama trails presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain 40 percent to 52 percent among whites. Sen. Hillary Clinton, Obama's challenger for the Democratic nomination, also trails McCain among white voters but by a smaller margin, 44 percent to 48 percent.

Among voters overall, however, Obama fares better, tying McCain 46 percent to 46 percent in a hypothetical match-up. (That's down slightly, within the margin of error, from the last NEWSWEEK Poll, conducted in late April, in which Obama led McCain 47 percent to 44 percent). In that contest, he is boosted by a strong showing among nonwhites, leading McCain 68 percent to 25 percent (Clinton leads McCain 65 percent to 25 percent among nonwhites). But even this result shows some of the electoral challenges facing Obama in a year when Democrats generally appear to hold an electoral advantage--boasting a 15 point advantage in generic party identification over Republicans, 53 percent to 38 percent. Clinton fares slightly better against McCain: 48 percent to 44 percent (within the margin of error). She enjoys this slight edge even though Obama leads Clinton 50 percent to 42 percent as the choice of registered Democrats for the party's nomination. Clinton's white support is unusually high: at a comparable point in the 2004 election, Democratic nominee John Kerry received the support of 36 percent of white voters, compared to George W. Bush's 48 percent, and in June of 2000, Bush led Al Gore 48 percent to 39 percent.

Obama's race may well explain his difficulty in winning over white voters. In the NEWSWEEK Poll, participants were asked to answer questions on a variety of race-related topics including racial preferences, interracial marriage, attitudes toward social welfare and general attitudes toward African-Americans. Respondents were grouped according to their answers on a "Racial Resentment Index." Among white Democrats with a low Racial Resentment Index rating, Obama beat McCain in a hypothetical match-up 78 percent to 17 percent. That is virtually identical to Clinton's margin in the category, 79 percent to 13 percent. But among white Democrats with high scores on the Racial Resentment Index, the picture was very different: Obama led McCain by only 18 points (51 to 33) while Clinton maintained a much larger 59-point lead (78 to 18).

Who exactly are these high Racial Resentment Index voters? A majority, 61 percent, have less than a four-year college education, many are older (44 percent were over the age of 60 compared to just 18 percent under the age of 40) and nearly half (46 percent) live in the South.

Confusion over Obama's religious background may also be hindering his ability to attract white support. Asked to name Obama's faith, 58 percent of participants said Christian (the correct answer), compared with 11 percent who answered Muslim, 22 percent who did not know and 9 percent who said something else. Obama's name could be contributing to the confusion; 18 percent of white Democratic voters say they judge the Illinois senator less favorably because of his name, compared to only 4 percent of white Democrats who say it makes them judge Obama more favorably.

While the NEWSWEEK Poll clearly suggests a lurking racial bias in the American electorate, the role of race in presidential politics may be diminishing. In 2000, only 37 percent of voters thought the country was ready for a black president. Now, 70 percent of voters think a black candidate like Obama could win the White House.

Methodology Statement

The NEWSWEEK Poll was conducted May 21-22 by Princeton Survey Research Associates. It is based on telephone interviews with 1,205 registered voters nationwide and has an overall margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points. Among Democrats and Democratic leaners, the margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

© 2008

The inability of Obama to win over small town U.S.A and blue collar workers will be the difference this fall. However, most of this stuff is beyond his control

He's not in as much trouble as you thinkRuy Teixeira, a Democratic analyst of voting trends, wrote the book on the core issue in the endgame of the party’s nomination fight. Its title is “America’s Forgotten Majority: Why the White Working Class Still Matters.”

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One might conclude that Mr. Teixeira is troubled by Senator Barack Obama’s performance in recent primaries against Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton among the voters known by nicknames like Joe Sixpack or Nascar Dad or Waitress Mom.

Actually, he is not.

Mr. Obama, who leads the delegate count, “is clocking in where he needs to be” with white, working-class voters to win the White House in November, Mr. Teixeira said.

Through most of the primaries, the constituencies supporting either Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Obama have remained remarkably stable. While Mr. Obama, of Illinois, has energized young, African-American and affluent voters, his rival from New York has dominated among women, Hispanics, blue-collar whites and older voters.

Among white, working-class voters — most commonly identified as those without a college degree — Mrs. Clinton has won by 2 to 1 or better in states like Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Mr. Obama has fared better among less culturally conservative working-class whites in states like Oregon, where the environment is a central issue for voters. Still, Mrs. Clinton’s claim that she is best positioned to win the “hard-working Americans, white Americans” has become the linchpin of her argument that she is more electable than Mr. Obama.

But Mr. Teixeira, who is not backing either candidate, does not buy that argument. He dismisses intraparty contests as “pretty poor evidence” of whether Mr. Obama, as the Democratic nominee, could attract the blue-collar support he would need against Senator John McCain, the presumed Republican nominee.

No Majority Needed

And how much blue-collar support would Mr. Obama need? Not a majority, said Mr. Teixeira. Though blue-collar Democrats once represented a centerpiece of the New Deal coalition, they have shrunk as a proportion of the information age-economy and as a proportion of the Democratic base.

Al Gore lost working-class white voters by 17 percentage points in 2000, even while winning the national popular vote. Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts lost them by 23 points in 2004, while running within three points of President Bush over all. Mr. Teixeira suggests that Mr. Obama can win the presidency if he comes within 10 to 12 percentage points of Mr. McCain with these voters, as Democratic candidates for the House did in the 2006 midterm election.

In recent national polls, that is exactly what Mr. Obama is doing. A recent Washington Post/ABC News poll showed Mr. Obama trailing by 12 percentage points with working-class whites; a poll by Quinnipiac University, showed him trailing by seven points. In each survey, Mr. Obama led over all by seven points.

Democrats learned from Mr. Gore’s Electoral College defeat that national polls are not everything. Mrs. Clinton’s advisers point to states like Florida, where Mrs. Clinton leads Mr. McCain while Mr. Obama lags behind, as evidence that Mr. Obama’s working-class weakness could prove decisive.

Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, agrees. He said recent focus groups among blue-collar whites in Florida, Michigan and Missouri found “very significant” resistance to Mr. Obama. He attributed that partly to racial attitudes, but more broadly to the cultural distance those voters felt from the liberal, Ivy League-educated candidate.

Help From New Voters

But Mr. Ayres concedes that resistance need not be fatal to Mr. Obama’s candidacy. “The question is whether they’ll be counterbalanced by the new voters and young voters he brings in,” he said.

Mr. Obama’s advisers, and some unaffiliated strategists, acknowledge that he would lose some working-class votes that Mrs. Clinton might receive should she somehow win over enough superdelegates to capture the nomination. But they insist the answer to Mr. Ayres is yes, Mr. Obama would attract other voters to offset those losses.

In two states where Mrs. Clinton swamped Mr. Obama among working-class white voters, some recent surveys have shown him leading Mr. McCain. Is working-class resistance in Ohio and Pennsylvania going to be enough to prevent Mr. Obama from winning, asks Mark Mellman, an adviser to the Senate majority leader, Harry Reid of Nevada, and other Democratic politicians. “I think the answer is, not.”

Mr. Teixeira argues that Mr. Obama’s standing with working-class whites may be artificially low in the wake of his skirmishing with Mrs. Clinton and the controversy over his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr.

“Yes, he has a problem,” Mr. Teixeira said. “But it’s a solvable problem.”

And I don't think this article (or the polls for that matter) are really giving us an accurate view of the race when we consider just how many black voters there will be this fall. Polls generally rely on older statistics to see how many blacks, whites, Latinos, etc. to have in each poll. And blacks are statistically among the least likely to vote (along with students who may see this as a transcendent election and show up in November but that is less likely) but you can bet that new records will be set this fall.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

The bottom line is that I'm currently pegging their chances at winning the General Election at:

John McCain = 53.9%

Barack Obama = 46.1%

The current odds from people putting their money where their mouth is:Obama - 63%

McCain - 37%

 

[Mr. Pickles]

The bottom line is that I'm currently pegging their chances at winning the General Election at:

John McCain = 53.9%

Barack Obama = 46.1%

The current odds from people putting their money where their mouth is:Obama - 63%

McCain - 37%

Can you sell short on InTrade?

 

[Sammy3469]

The bottom line is that I'm currently pegging their chances at winning the General Election at:

John McCain = 53.9%

Barack Obama = 46.1%

The current odds from people putting their money where their mouth is:Obama - 63%

McCain - 37%

Can you sell short on InTrade?

yes...its essentially a futures market

 

[Spiderman]

John McCain = 53.9% Barack Obama = 46.1%

Are the decimals really necessary in your made up percentages?

To be fair, I'm pretty sure he copied and pasted that from a web site with some math backing (although it's poor math if they give NJ to McCain).

If I don't fall in line with Obama, there's no way I can write my own thoughts?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

The bottom line is that I'm currently pegging their chances at winning the General Election at:

John McCain = 53.9%

Barack Obama = 46.1%

The current odds from people putting their money where their mouth is:Obama - 63%

McCain - 37%

Can you sell short on InTrade?

Yes, although the way the fee structure is set up (along with the 100% margin requirement) discourages selling short on longshots. (E.g., Ron Paul is still about 1% to win the Republican nomination, but selling him short isn't overly attractive because of the expiration fee when you win.)

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic put his prognosticator hat on and listed his Top 5 choices for Obama's Veep:

Here we go -- the Ambinder Shortlists, based mostly on educated guesswork and as many conversations as one reporter can reasonably have. I have excluded from these lists candidates I consider -- based on reporting -- to be implausible. These lists will change as the information changes. ....

Sen, Barack Obama

1. vacant. Just to be provocative, I'll throw out Joe Biden's name. His hidden asset is his connection with white, working class voters. His obvious asset is his foreign policy experience and.

The rest:

#. Ex-Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD) -- he has powerful allies in Obama's inner circle; Midwestern credentials; government know-how; credibility with white working class voters;

#. Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ) -- Obama really likes her.

#. Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) -- his donors will pressure Obama; Dodd and Obama have become close friends

# Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) -- the narrative would be awesome

# Chuck Hagel (R-NE) -- Hagel himself seems to want Obama to ask him to join the ticket.

It's interesting that there's no mention of Bill Richardson. I was an early supporter of Webb, but as I've said here before, Webb himself said he's not interested and I don't like the idea of losing his Virginia Senate seat.I think Biden is more in line with SecState. I've heard he wants that bad but have not heard of him being discussed for Veep. Chuck Hagel is ridiculous. This isn't going to be the "Unity" ticket. I can see Obama asking some Republicans to be in his cabinet, but not to be his Vice.

I really like the idea of Napolitano. By asking a woman to serve, he'll heal a lot of the wounds felt by Clinton supporters without actually asking her to serve. And Napolitano could help in the Southwest, which is going to be a key area.

Here are the top five possibilities according to InTrade:1. Jim Webb (20.3%)

2. Hillary Clinton (16.5%)

3. John Edwards (7.7%)

4. Bill Richardson (6.6%)

5. Mark Warner (6.0%)

 

[the moops]

John McCain = 53.9% Barack Obama = 46.1%

:( Are the decimals really necessary in your made up percentages?

To be fair, I'm pretty sure he copied and pasted that from a web site with some math backing (although it's poor math if they give NJ to McCain).

If I don't fall in line with Obama, there's no way I can write my own thoughts?

You can write your own thoughts, sure. Just amusing that you come up with percents as detailed as 53.9 and 46.1.

 

[adonis]

John McCain = 53.9% Barack Obama = 46.1%

Are the decimals really necessary in your made up percentages?

To be fair, I'm pretty sure he copied and pasted that from a web site with some math backing (although it's poor math if they give NJ to McCain).

If I don't fall in line with Obama, there's no way I can write my own thoughts?

Don't you get tired of playing the old "Obama supporters don't allow dissent?" shtick? This is an Obama HQ thread. Many here support Obama. Coming in here constantly posting stuff antagonizing to him, or showing him at a huge disadvantage is OBVIOUSLY something we'll disagree with. Drop the martyr shtick and move onto arguing facts or putting forward arguments for all of the doom, gloom, and FUD you are always putting out regarding Obama.

 

[Voltaire]

John McCain = 53.9% Barack Obama = 46.1%

Are the decimals really necessary in your made up percentages?

To be fair, I'm pretty sure he copied and pasted that from a web site with some math backing (although it's poor math if they give NJ to McCain).

If I don't fall in line with Obama, there's no way I can write my own thoughts?

You can write your own thoughts, sure. Just amusing that you come up with percents as detailed as 53.9 and 46.1.

Yeah, I just thought that you'd gotten it somewhere else because it was so precise. And because you ridiculed where I got my info and I actually had evidence to back it up. It certainly explains the NJ fiasco, though. That's like an Obama fan claiming North Carolina becuase the campaign has stated they're going after that state.

 

[Spiderman]

John McCain = 53.9% Barack Obama = 46.1%

Are the decimals really necessary in your made up percentages?

To be fair, I'm pretty sure he copied and pasted that from a web site with some math backing (although it's poor math if they give NJ to McCain).

If I don't fall in line with Obama, there's no way I can write my own thoughts?

You can write your own thoughts, sure. Just amusing that you come up with percents as detailed as 53.9 and 46.1.

Yeah, I just thought that you'd gotten it somewhere else because it was so precise. And because you ridiculed where I got my info and I actually had evidence to back it up. It certainly explains the NJ fiasco, though. That's like an Obama fan claiming North Carolina becuase the campaign has stated they're going after that state.

Rasmussen's latest polls have the following: Obama taking Colorado 46-43%McCain taking Florida 47-43%Obama taking Iowa 44-42%McCain taking Michigan 45-44%McCain taking Missouri 47-41%McCain taking Montana 48-43%McCain taking Nevada 46-40%Obama taking New Hampshire 48-43%McCain taking New Jersey 46-45%McCain taking North Carolina 48-45%McCain taking Ohio 45-44%Obama taking Pennsylvania 45-43%McCain taking Virginia 47-44%McCain taking Wisconsin 47-43% That's from the most accurate major polling website based on their results over the last 10 years. But you still give Obama the advantage ??

 

[adonis]

John McCain = 53.9% Barack Obama = 46.1%

Are the decimals really necessary in your made up percentages?

To be fair, I'm pretty sure he copied and pasted that from a web site with some math backing (although it's poor math if they give NJ to McCain).

If I don't fall in line with Obama, there's no way I can write my own thoughts?

You can write your own thoughts, sure. Just amusing that you come up with percents as detailed as 53.9 and 46.1.

Yeah, I just thought that you'd gotten it somewhere else because it was so precise. And because you ridiculed where I got my info and I actually had evidence to back it up. It certainly explains the NJ fiasco, though. That's like an Obama fan claiming North Carolina becuase the campaign has stated they're going after that state.

Rasmussen's latest polls have the following: Obama taking Colorado 46-43%McCain taking Florida 47-43%Obama taking Iowa 44-42%McCain taking Michigan 45-44%McCain taking Missouri 47-41%McCain taking Montana 48-43%McCain taking Nevada 46-40%Obama taking New Hampshire 48-43%McCain taking New Jersey 46-45%McCain taking North Carolina 48-45%McCain taking Ohio 45-44%Obama taking Pennsylvania 45-43%McCain taking Virginia 47-44%McCain taking Wisconsin 47-43% That's from the most accurate major polling website based on their results over the last 10 years. But you still give Obama the advantage ??

Obama still hasn't been crowned the nominee yet. Clinton is still in it. He doesn't have the magic number. You have not yet seen the Obama campaign mobilize fully against McCain yet. Polls now are really not that applicable.They haven't debated, they haven't been chosen as nominees, the democratic party is still split between candidates...just wait a bit before you start making too much out of these poll numbers. They will change.