*** Official Barack Obama FBG campaign headquarters *** (3 Viewers)

[One]

I must admit, I've lost some of my passion for the cause as the election has gone on. Towards the end with Hillary, his campaign seems to be more run of the mill than I had hoped.I don't think it's necessarily all that bad, but the newness is really gone, and his campaign is being run much like campaigns in the past, albeit very efficiently and strategically.I'm not saying I'm changing my mind about him, but I just wonder how much change someone can really bring during a campaign where he's under such scrutiny for every word, every appearance, every phrase. Does our system allow a candidate to be himself in a campaign, or does the constant assault and media attention necessitate this kind of campaign? I'll just hope that Obama is like a space shuttle, and this campaign is just the part of the ship that is used to launch him into space, and after he's cleared the atmosphere, it drops off and returns to earth and then he's free to steer on his own. Anyway, just thought it was interesting. As it heats back up, I might get more interested, but for now I'm still a supporter, just that a lot of excitement is gone.

This is normal and cyclical. You'll fire it back up.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

An often spoken axiom about the election process is that the campaign for the nomination is always run to the outside and then the general election is a race back to the middle.

Yes. Whoever gets the median voter wins. It's an oversimplification, but imagine that there are 100 voters lined up from left to right. The leftmost 50 are Democrats while the rightmost 50 are Republicans. We can number them 1 to 100 from left to right.In the Democratic race, whoever gets voter #25 to vote for him will win the nomination. In the Republican race, whoever gets voter #75 to vote for him will win the nomination.In the general election, whoever gets voters #50 and #51 to vote for him will win the election.Your position must shift a bit when you are chasing voter #50 as opposed to voter #25 or voter #75.

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

An often spoken axiom about the election process is that the campaign for the nomination is always run to the outside and then the general election is a race back to the middle.

Yes. Whoever gets the median voter wins. It's an oversimplification, but imagine that there are 100 voters lined up from left to right. The leftmost 50 are Democrats while the rightmost 50 are Republicans. We can number them 1 to 100 from left to right.In the Democratic race, whoever gets voter #25 to vote for him will win the nomination. In the Republican race, whoever gets voter #75 to vote for him will win the nomination.In the general election, whoever gets voters #50 and #51 to vote for him will win the election.Your position must shift a bit when you are chasing voter #50 as opposed to voter #25 or voter #75.

I agree the axiom works. My specific concern for Obama is that there was plenty of evidence that he was already reaching voters 50-51, and the danger of reaching for voters who may be closer to 60-65 is that you actually drive away voters closer to the true center. Not to mention the voters between 1-25 that you absolutely need to keep.

 

[The Juggernaut]

I must admit, I've lost some of my passion for the cause as the election has gone on. Towards the end with Hillary, his campaign seems to be more run of the mill than I had hoped.

I don't think it's necessarily all that bad, but the newness is really gone, and his campaign is being run much like campaigns in the past, albeit very efficiently and strategically.

I'm not saying I'm changing my mind about him, but I just wonder how much change someone can really bring during a campaign where he's under such scrutiny for every word, every appearance, every phrase. Does our system allow a candidate to be himself in a campaign, or does the constant assault and media attention necessitate this kind of campaign?

I'll just hope that Obama is like a space shuttle, and this campaign is just the part of the ship that is used to launch him into space, and after he's cleared the atmosphere, it drops off and returns to earth and then he's free to steer on his own. Anyway, just thought it was interesting. As it heats back up, I might get more interested, but for now I'm still a supporter, just that a lot of excitement is gone.

Neither Abraham Lincoln nor John Kennedy could get elected today. Pretty sad really.

 

[bigbottom]

I must admit, I've lost some of my passion for the cause as the election has gone on. Towards the end with Hillary, his campaign seems to be more run of the mill than I had hoped.

I don't think it's necessarily all that bad, but the newness is really gone, and his campaign is being run much like campaigns in the past, albeit very efficiently and strategically.

I'm not saying I'm changing my mind about him, but I just wonder how much change someone can really bring during a campaign where he's under such scrutiny for every word, every appearance, every phrase. Does our system allow a candidate to be himself in a campaign, or does the constant assault and media attention necessitate this kind of campaign?

I'll just hope that Obama is like a space shuttle, and this campaign is just the part of the ship that is used to launch him into space, and after he's cleared the atmosphere, it drops off and returns to earth and then he's free to steer on his own. Anyway, just thought it was interesting. As it heats back up, I might get more interested, but for now I'm still a supporter, just that a lot of excitement is gone.

Neither Abraham Lincoln nor John Kennedy could get elected today. Pretty sad really.

Why not? (other than because they're dead)

 

[kaa]

I must admit, I've lost some of my passion for the cause as the election has gone on. Towards the end with Hillary, his campaign seems to be more run of the mill than I had hoped.I don't think it's necessarily all that bad, but the newness is really gone, and his campaign is being run much like campaigns in the past, albeit very efficiently and strategically.I'm not saying I'm changing my mind about him, but I just wonder how much change someone can really bring during a campaign where he's under such scrutiny for every word, every appearance, every phrase. Does our system allow a candidate to be himself in a campaign, or does the constant assault and media attention necessitate this kind of campaign? I'll just hope that Obama is like a space shuttle, and this campaign is just the part of the ship that is used to launch him into space, and after he's cleared the atmosphere, it drops off and returns to earth and then he's free to steer on his own. Anyway, just thought it was interesting. As it heats back up, I might get more interested, but for now I'm still a supporter, just that a lot of excitement is gone.

Rush Limbaugh has been predicting this for quite some time. He argues that Obama's campaign is being run on pure emotion instead of real substance, and that it is very difficult to maintain such momentum for an entire campaign. Rush likes to refer to it as "the voters' emotional reservoir" and that reservoir isn't big enough to sustain an emotional campaign like this for 6 months to a year. I think we're going to see some of that play out as Obama attempts to move to the center. Such a move is going to be much harder for him than a normal candidate because his emotional base of support will recoil at the attempt. Other Obama supporters will just burn out before voting. Couple that with the fact that McCain has traditionally been a weak opener and a strong finisher in his campaigns, and McCain is the favorite to win.

 

[The Juggernaut]

I must admit, I've lost some of my passion for the cause as the election has gone on. Towards the end with Hillary, his campaign seems to be more run of the mill than I had hoped.

I don't think it's necessarily all that bad, but the newness is really gone, and his campaign is being run much like campaigns in the past, albeit very efficiently and strategically.

I'm not saying I'm changing my mind about him, but I just wonder how much change someone can really bring during a campaign where he's under such scrutiny for every word, every appearance, every phrase. Does our system allow a candidate to be himself in a campaign, or does the constant assault and media attention necessitate this kind of campaign?

I'll just hope that Obama is like a space shuttle, and this campaign is just the part of the ship that is used to launch him into space, and after he's cleared the atmosphere, it drops off and returns to earth and then he's free to steer on his own. Anyway, just thought it was interesting. As it heats back up, I might get more interested, but for now I'm still a supporter, just that a lot of excitement is gone.

Neither Abraham Lincoln nor John Kennedy could get elected today. Pretty sad really.

Why not? (other than because they're dead)

Lincoln was an extremely ugly country bumpkin with a high pitched voice who wasn't a christian and slept with a man for many years in his early life.Kennedy was a chronically ill, drug addict who's womanizing was well known by the press but not reported. With Joe's money, he'd have a better chance than Lincoln, but I still doubt he could survive today's standards.

 

[bigbottom]

I must admit, I've lost some of my passion for the cause as the election has gone on. Towards the end with Hillary, his campaign seems to be more run of the mill than I had hoped.

I don't think it's necessarily all that bad, but the newness is really gone, and his campaign is being run much like campaigns in the past, albeit very efficiently and strategically.

I'm not saying I'm changing my mind about him, but I just wonder how much change someone can really bring during a campaign where he's under such scrutiny for every word, every appearance, every phrase. Does our system allow a candidate to be himself in a campaign, or does the constant assault and media attention necessitate this kind of campaign?

I'll just hope that Obama is like a space shuttle, and this campaign is just the part of the ship that is used to launch him into space, and after he's cleared the atmosphere, it drops off and returns to earth and then he's free to steer on his own. Anyway, just thought it was interesting. As it heats back up, I might get more interested, but for now I'm still a supporter, just that a lot of excitement is gone.

Neither Abraham Lincoln nor John Kennedy could get elected today. Pretty sad really.

Why not? (other than because they're dead)

Lincoln was an extremely ugly country bumpkin with a high pitched voice who wasn't a christian and slept with a man for many years in his early life.Kennedy was a chronically ill, drug addict who's womanizing was well known by the press but not reported. With Joe's money, he'd have a better chance than Lincoln, but I still doubt he could survive today's standards.

Okay, but this sounds more like their respective backgrounds and baggage than the issue of being scrutinized for every word, every appearance, every phrase, which is what I thought you were responding to. As for Lincoln loking like a bumpkin with a high pitched voice, we've elected guys that sound like uneducated bumpkins who have trouble pronouncing words correctly. I don't necessarily see that as a barrier.

 

[adonis]

An often spoken axiom about the election process is that the campaign for the nomination is always run to the outside and then the general election is a race back to the middle.

Yes. Whoever gets the median voter wins. It's an oversimplification, but imagine that there are 100 voters lined up from left to right. The leftmost 50 are Democrats while the rightmost 50 are Republicans. We can number them 1 to 100 from left to right.In the Democratic race, whoever gets voter #25 to vote for him will win the nomination. In the Republican race, whoever gets voter #75 to vote for him will win the nomination.In the general election, whoever gets voters #50 and #51 to vote for him will win the election.Your position must shift a bit when you are chasing voter #50 as opposed to voter #25 or voter #75.

I agree the axiom works. My specific concern for Obama is that there was plenty of evidence that he was already reaching voters 50-51, and the danger of reaching for voters who may be closer to 60-65 is that you actually drive away voters closer to the true center. Not to mention the voters between 1-25 that you absolutely need to keep.

He was reaching those voters matched up against Hillary, against McCain I think he has more competition.

 

[shining path]

Lincoln wasn't a christian and slept with another man?

 

[The Juggernaut]

I must admit, I've lost some of my passion for the cause as the election has gone on. Towards the end with Hillary, his campaign seems to be more run of the mill than I had hoped.

I don't think it's necessarily all that bad, but the newness is really gone, and his campaign is being run much like campaigns in the past, albeit very efficiently and strategically.

I'm not saying I'm changing my mind about him, but I just wonder how much change someone can really bring during a campaign where he's under such scrutiny for every word, every appearance, every phrase. Does our system allow a candidate to be himself in a campaign, or does the constant assault and media attention necessitate this kind of campaign?

I'll just hope that Obama is like a space shuttle, and this campaign is just the part of the ship that is used to launch him into space, and after he's cleared the atmosphere, it drops off and returns to earth and then he's free to steer on his own. Anyway, just thought it was interesting. As it heats back up, I might get more interested, but for now I'm still a supporter, just that a lot of excitement is gone.

Neither Abraham Lincoln nor John Kennedy could get elected today. Pretty sad really.

Why not? (other than because they're dead)

Lincoln was an extremely ugly country bumpkin with a high pitched voice who wasn't a christian and slept with a man for many years in his early life.Kennedy was a chronically ill, drug addict who's womanizing was well known by the press but not reported. With Joe's money, he'd have a better chance than Lincoln, but I still doubt he could survive today's standards.

Okay, but this sounds more like their respective backgrounds and baggage than the issue of being scrutinized for every word, every appearance, every phrase, which is what I thought you were responding to. As for Lincoln loking like a bumpkin with a high pitched voice, we've elected guys that sound like uneducated bumpkins who have trouble pronouncing words correctly. I don't necessarily see that as a barrier.

I was commenting more on the overall scrutiny that the candadites go through now. Between the press and the other side turning over every stone and looking in every closet, I just don't think that it would be possible for those two guys to make it through.As for the uneducated bumpkin getting elected, Lincoln wouldn't have the support of the evangelicals to push him through.

 

[flufhed]

My specific concern for Obama is that there was plenty of evidence that he was already reaching voters 50-51

You mean BEFORE Rev. Writght emerged, I presume?Rev. Wright and the ensuing fiasco changed EVERYTHING.

 

[adonis]

I must admit, I've lost some of my passion for the cause as the election has gone on. Towards the end with Hillary, his campaign seems to be more run of the mill than I had hoped.I don't think it's necessarily all that bad, but the newness is really gone, and his campaign is being run much like campaigns in the past, albeit very efficiently and strategically.I'm not saying I'm changing my mind about him, but I just wonder how much change someone can really bring during a campaign where he's under such scrutiny for every word, every appearance, every phrase. Does our system allow a candidate to be himself in a campaign, or does the constant assault and media attention necessitate this kind of campaign? I'll just hope that Obama is like a space shuttle, and this campaign is just the part of the ship that is used to launch him into space, and after he's cleared the atmosphere, it drops off and returns to earth and then he's free to steer on his own. Anyway, just thought it was interesting. As it heats back up, I might get more interested, but for now I'm still a supporter, just that a lot of excitement is gone.

Rush Limbaugh has been predicting this for quite some time. He argues that Obama's campaign is being run on pure emotion instead of real substance, and that it is very difficult to maintain such momentum for an entire campaign. Rush likes to refer to it as "the voters' emotional reservoir" and that reservoir isn't big enough to sustain an emotional campaign like this for 6 months to a year. I think we're going to see some of that play out as Obama attempts to move to the center. Such a move is going to be much harder for him than a normal candidate because his emotional base of support will recoil at the attempt. Other Obama supporters will just burn out before voting. Couple that with the fact that McCain has traditionally been a weak opener and a strong finisher in his campaigns, and McCain is the favorite to win.

I support Obama because of his substance first and foremost, and that support has not changed, but my enthusiasm certainly has. During the primaries, there was a front and center candidate, debates, etc, but now there seems to be much more sniping through spokesmen, and other typical political garbage.It seems like it's the nature of a general campaign these days, and I'm not sure it can be much different, but until they start going toe to toe in debates, I doubt I'll be that interested.

 

[NCCommish]

Lincoln wasn't a christian and slept with another man?

Lincolns religious beliefs are up for grabs. He never joined a church but he read and quoted the Bible extensively throughout his life. Some claim he was an atheist but the proof seems tenuous at best. His friends have been quoted as saying he was in complete disagreement with the church on many things and that his views were unorthodox but that he was Christian.According to some reports he slept with his bodyguard while he wife and kids were away. Two different people who had the access to know have suggested he slept with a Captain Derickson. One of those sources was from the unit that Capt Derickson was part of that guarded Lincoln.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Lincoln wasn't a christian and slept with another man?

Lincolns religious beliefs are up for grabs. He never joined a church but he read and quoted the Bible extensively throughout his life. Some claim he was an atheist but the proof seems tenuous at best. His friends have been quoted as saying he was in complete disagreement with the church on many things and that his views were unorthodox but that he was Christian.According to some reports he slept with his bodyguard while he wife and kids were away. Two different people who had the access to know have suggested he slept with a Captain Derickson. One of those sources was from the unit that Capt Derickson was part of that guarded Lincoln.

11,300 posts and someone finally addresses this. Thanks.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Obama campaigning in red states this 4th of July.

McCain resting.

LINK

While Obama was tromping around on GOP turf, his Republican rival John McCain was nowhere near his base of support. McCain spent part of the week overseas, in Colombia and Mexico. He had no plans to campaign on the Fourth of July or all weekend, spending time at his home in Arizona instead.

 

[NCCommish]

Lincoln wasn't a christian and slept with another man?

Lincolns religious beliefs are up for grabs. He never joined a church but he read and quoted the Bible extensively throughout his life. Some claim he was an atheist but the proof seems tenuous at best. His friends have been quoted as saying he was in complete disagreement with the church on many things and that his views were unorthodox but that he was Christian.According to some reports he slept with his bodyguard while he wife and kids were away. Two different people who had the access to know have suggested he slept with a Captain Derickson. One of those sources was from the unit that Capt Derickson was part of that guarded Lincoln.

11,300 posts and someone finally addresses this. Thanks.

I live to serve

 

[BigSteelThrill]

McCain resting.

NAP TIME!!!!!

 

[H Jass]

Any thoughts on Obama backing off a bit on his Iraq timetable?? I would think this would greatly disappoint many.

Obama rewrites Iraq plan

ETA: Doh, there's a poll out by beavers.

 

[Statorama]

Any thoughts on Obama backing off a bit on his Iraq timetable?? I would think this would greatly disappoint many.

Obama rewrites Iraq plan

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Any thoughts on Obama backing off a bit on his Iraq timetable?? I would think this would greatly disappoint many.

Obama rewrites Iraq plan

ETA: Doh, there's a poll out by beavers.

Good article. I'm not disappointed in the least. If he said he wasn't going to listen to the commanders on the ground that would be pretty disturbing.

 

[commisholio]

Obama is now up five points in Montana. Montana! Bush won there by 20 in 04. Wow.

RE: Iraq, I don't think he has ever been as 100% committed to immediate withdrawal as people make him out to be. I don't really see this as much of a change.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Obama is now up five points in Montana. Montana! Bush won there by 20 in 04. Wow.

Montana's Gov and 2 Senators are Democrats. It's only 3 electoral college votes I think - but this could shape up to be a Reaganesque landslide election.

 

[shining path]

Lincoln wasn't a christian and slept with another man?

Lincolns religious beliefs are up for grabs. He never joined a church but he read and quoted the Bible extensively throughout his life. Some claim he was an atheist but the proof seems tenuous at best. His friends have been quoted as saying he was in complete disagreement with the church on many things and that his views were unorthodox but that he was Christian.According to some reports he slept with his bodyguard while he wife and kids were away. Two different people who had the access to know have suggested he slept with a Captain Derickson. One of those sources was from the unit that Capt Derickson was part of that guarded Lincoln.

Just so it's clear, you mean "slept with" in the Biblical sense?

 

[NCCommish]

Lincoln wasn't a christian and slept with another man?

Lincolns religious beliefs are up for grabs. He never joined a church but he read and quoted the Bible extensively throughout his life. Some claim he was an atheist but the proof seems tenuous at best. His friends have been quoted as saying he was in complete disagreement with the church on many things and that his views were unorthodox but that he was Christian.According to some reports he slept with his bodyguard while he wife and kids were away. Two different people who had the access to know have suggested he slept with a Captain Derickson. One of those sources was from the unit that Capt Derickson was part of that guarded Lincoln.

Just so it's clear, you mean "slept with" in the Biblical sense?

I mean they shared a bed. No eye withnesses to any actual activity or at least none I have read.

 

[bigbottom]

Obama is now up five points in Montana. Montana! Bush won there by 20 in 04. Wow.

Polling as of now has Obama leading in every single state that Kerry won in '04. June polls also have Obama leading in Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio and Virginia, all states won by Bush in '04. Additionally, Obama appears to be closing the gap in Florida, with three of six polls conducted in June showing Obama with a lead (the first time any poll has given Obama a lead over McCain in the state). Then there are states like Montana and Missouri where at least one June poll shows Obama with a lead. Sure the election is a ways off, but McCain seems to be going the wrong direction in terms of electoral math.And what happened to the conventional wisdom that the long, drawn out battle with Hillary was damaging Obama's chances in the general. Obama is leading McCain by 5 points nationwide. Would the gap have even been wider had Hillary conceded earlier? Or did all the added exposure give Obama a boost while McCain was relegated to back page status? Whatever the case, McCain needs to start making a move.

 

[The Juggernaut]

Lincoln wasn't a christian and slept with another man?

Lincolns religious beliefs are up for grabs. He never joined a church but he read and quoted the Bible extensively throughout his life. Some claim he was an atheist but the proof seems tenuous at best. His friends have been quoted as saying he was in complete disagreement with the church on many things and that his views were unorthodox but that he was Christian.According to some reports he slept with his bodyguard while he wife and kids were away. Two different people who had the access to know have suggested he slept with a Captain Derickson. One of those sources was from the unit that Capt Derickson was part of that guarded Lincoln.

When confronted with a whisper campaign that he was a "religion scoffer" (which I love BTW), his response was this:

"That I am not a member of any Christian Church, is true; but I have never denied the truth of the Scriptures; and I have never spoken with intentional disrespect of religion in general, or of any denomination of Christians in particular. … I do not think I could, myself, be brought to support a man for office whom I knew to be an open enemy of, and scoffer at, religion. Leaving the higher matter of eternal consequences between him and his Maker, I still do not think any man has the right thus to insult the feelings, and injure the morals, of the community in which he may live … "

Sounds like lawyer linguistics to me. If Obama came out with a similarly vague statement in response to the whisper campaign that he's muslim, he would get slaughtered. It did seem that Lincoln became more of a "God man" during the Civil War. From what I've read, he had trouble shouldering the responsibility of the deaths of so many, and sort of lent that responsibility to God.As for the charges of him sleeping with a man, the bodygaurd thing is part of it, but he also regularly slept with a couple other guys (Joshua Speed for one) in his bachelor days.Don't get me wrong, I love me some Honest Abe. I just don't see how he could ever survive the "vetting process" that a modern day candidate has to go through now.

 

[Gopher State]

Obama is now up five points in Montana. Montana! Bush won there by 20 in 04. Wow.

Polling as of now has Obama leading in every single state that Kerry won in '04. June polls also have Obama leading in Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio and Virginia, all states won by Bush in '04. Additionally, Obama appears to be closing the gap in Florida, with three of six polls conducted in June showing Obama with a lead (the first time any poll has given Obama a lead over McCain in the state). Then there are states like Montana and Missouri where at least one June poll shows Obama with a lead. Sure the election is a ways off, but McCain seems to be going the wrong direction in terms of electoral math.And what happened to the conventional wisdom that the long, drawn out battle with Hillary was damaging Obama's chances in the general. Obama is leading McCain by 5 points nationwide. Would the gap have even been wider had Hillary conceded earlier? Or did all the added exposure give Obama a boost while McCain was relegated to back page status? Whatever the case, McCain needs to start making a move.

It's a little early to be looking at Polls, I think in 1988 Dukakis had a 10+/- lead over Bush in July. It's not how you start grasshopper, but how you finish.

 

[bigbottom]

Obama is now up five points in Montana. Montana! Bush won there by 20 in 04. Wow.

Polling as of now has Obama leading in every single state that Kerry won in '04. June polls also have Obama leading in Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio and Virginia, all states won by Bush in '04. Additionally, Obama appears to be closing the gap in Florida, with three of six polls conducted in June showing Obama with a lead (the first time any poll has given Obama a lead over McCain in the state). Then there are states like Montana and Missouri where at least one June poll shows Obama with a lead. Sure the election is a ways off, but McCain seems to be going the wrong direction in terms of electoral math.And what happened to the conventional wisdom that the long, drawn out battle with Hillary was damaging Obama's chances in the general. Obama is leading McCain by 5 points nationwide. Would the gap have even been wider had Hillary conceded earlier? Or did all the added exposure give Obama a boost while McCain was relegated to back page status? Whatever the case, McCain needs to start making a move.

It's a little early to be looking at Polls, I think in 1988 Dukakis had a 10+/- lead over Bush in July. It's not how you start grasshopper, but how you finish.

Of course it's how you finish. But right now, McCain is heading the wrong direction in terms of the electoral math. If he is to "finish," he needs to start turning the battleship.

 

[the moops]

It's a little early to be looking at Polls, I think in 1988 Dukakis had a 10+/- lead over Bush in July. It's not how you start grasshopper, but how you finish.

It really wouldn't matter what the polls said at this point. You would find some way to make it a negative towards Obama.If in 2 months the polls are the same, will you give Obama some credit? Or will you still be a Hillary troll?

 

[bigbottom]

I have a question for GS. Given that you are a Hillary supporter who opposes Obama, I figure you're generally liberal or left-leaning, but just have concerns about Obama's qualifications or ability to be a competent president. I can understand that position. But the next president will likely appoint replacements for Stevens and Ginsburg. If McCain is president and nominates conservatives for the vacancies, that will create a solid and virtually unbreakable 6-3 (or 6-2-1) conservative majority for a long, long time. If you are the least bit left-leaning, or just want a balanced court, I can't see how you could not be gravely concerned with such an outcome.

 

[Voltaire]

Obama is now up five points in Montana. Montana! Bush won there by 20 in 04. Wow.

Polling as of now has Obama leading in every single state that Kerry won in '04. June polls also have Obama leading in Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio and Virginia, all states won by Bush in '04. Additionally, Obama appears to be closing the gap in Florida, with three of six polls conducted in June showing Obama with a lead (the first time any poll has given Obama a lead over McCain in the state). Then there are states like Montana and Missouri where at least one June poll shows Obama with a lead. Sure the election is a ways off, but McCain seems to be going the wrong direction in terms of electoral math.And what happened to the conventional wisdom that the long, drawn out battle with Hillary was damaging Obama's chances in the general. Obama is leading McCain by 5 points nationwide. Would the gap have even been wider had Hillary conceded earlier? Or did all the added exposure give Obama a boost while McCain was relegated to back page status? Whatever the case, McCain needs to start making a move.

It's a little early to be looking at Polls, I think in 1988 Dukakis had a 10+/- lead over Bush in July. It's not how you start grasshopper, but how you finish.

I actually totally agree with this post, but it certainly doesn't jibe with other things you've said. For example, you strongly believe that a huge percentage of Hillary supporters have still not jumped ship to Obama. If you are correct (and I hope you are) then the almost certain trickle (someone just mentioned SC nominees which will be a huge issue in Oct/Nov if you are correct about Hillary supporters) of Clinton supporters to the Obama side would quell most of the momentum that McCain can hope to gain over the rest of the summer.

 

[Statorama]

I have a question for GS. Given that you are a Hillary supporter who opposes Obama, I figure you're generally liberal or left-leaning, but just have concerns about Obama's qualifications or ability to be a competent president. I can understand that position. But the next president will likely appoint replacements for Stevens and Ginsburg. If McCain is president and nominates conservatives for the vacancies, that will create a solid and virtually unbreakable 6-3 (or 6-2-1) conservative majority for a long, long time. If you are the least bit left-leaning, or just want a balanced court, I can't see how you could not be gravely concerned with such an outcome.

This is one of the main reasons why it's going to suck regardless of which guy wins. Right now you have a solid 4-4 split with Anthony Kennedy tossing a coin on which way he's going to vote. So you'll get one vote where baby rapists can't be executed, but then another vote where you can have a handgun in DC. A court that is going to rubber stamp their vote one way or another based on their political leanings is going to be a flawed court...regardless of which side of the aisle you come from.I like a balanced court. Thank God the liberals "Trojan Horsed" Bush #1 with David Souter. The Republicans have to be kicking themselves that they nominated arguably the most liberal judge currently on the court.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

It's a little early to be looking at Polls, I think in 1988 Dukakis had a 10+/- lead over Bush in July. It's not how you start grasshopper, but how you finish.

I agree: polls don't have nearly as much predictive value as prediction markets. Obama is better than a 2-1 favorite over McCain at InTrade.

 

[Statorama]

It's a little early to be looking at Polls, I think in 1988 Dukakis had a 10+/- lead over Bush in July. It's not how you start grasshopper, but how you finish.

I agree: polls don't have nearly as much predictive value as prediction markets. Obama is better than a 2-1 favorite over McCain at InTrade.

Get in on Obama now. By the time September rolls around, you'll be lucky to see 20-1.Obama is telling the Christian Right he's going to help them out, turns around and tells the conservative hawks not to worry he changed his mind about that whole withdrawl thing, and McCain is either too weak or stupid to counter-attack. There's a very good chance Obama takes every single electoral vote.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Obama is now up five points in Montana. Montana! Bush won there by 20 in 04. Wow.

Polling as of now has Obama leading in every single state that Kerry won in '04. June polls also have Obama leading in Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio and Virginia, all states won by Bush in '04. Additionally, Obama appears to be closing the gap in Florida, with three of six polls conducted in June showing Obama with a lead (the first time any poll has given Obama a lead over McCain in the state). Then there are states like Montana and Missouri where at least one June poll shows Obama with a lead. Sure the election is a ways off, but McCain seems to be going the wrong direction in terms of electoral math.And what happened to the conventional wisdom that the long, drawn out battle with Hillary was damaging Obama's chances in the general. Obama is leading McCain by 5 points nationwide. Would the gap have even been wider had Hillary conceded earlier? Or did all the added exposure give Obama a boost while McCain was relegated to back page status? Whatever the case, McCain needs to start making a move.

What about Georgia?

 

[jdoggydogg]

ABC radio reported today that 1/3 of the people that voted for Hillary will stay home in November rather than vote for Obama. Really? Wow. I have one thing to say to all these idiots:

#### YOU

Really. #### you. Screw you and your three year old, immature egos. What a joke.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

ABC radio reported today that 1/3 of the people that voted for Hillary will stay home in November rather than vote for Obama. Really? Wow. I have one thing to say to all these idiots:

#### YOU

Really. #### you. Screw you and your three year old, immature egos. What a joke.

You might consider switching to decaf.

 

[jdoggydogg]

ABC radio reported today that 1/3 of the people that voted for Hillary will stay home in November rather than vote for Obama. Really? Wow. I have one thing to say to all these idiots:

#### YOU

Really. #### you. Screw you and your three year old, immature egos. What a joke.

You might consider switching to decaf.

I know, I know. I'm do go on. But really, I can't believe people are that stupid. I know that our two-party political system has a lot of flaws. But if you are a registered Democrat, I assume you share at least some of the party's ideals. To just stay home and not vote at all is childish.

 

[Saints-Man]

Heck, I'm a white guy and Obama's being black is on my list of positives.

Same here.

Why? I can understand if you are black and it might be a reason. But if you are white, why would his race be a reason to vote for him?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Heck, I'm a white guy and Obama's being black is on my list of positives.

Same here.

Why? I can understand if you are black and it might be a reason. But if you are white, why would his race be a reason to vote for him?

I can think of a few reasons, but the best one is that having a black President will really irritate a lot of racists, which I'd consider to be a good thing.

 

[Saints-Man]

Heck, I'm a white guy and Obama's being black is on my list of positives.

Same here.

Why? I can understand if you are black and it might be a reason. But if you are white, why would his race be a reason to vote for him?

I can think of a few reasons, but the best one is that having a black President will really irritate a lot of racists, which I'd consider to be a good thing.

Okay...help me with some of the others. That is not what I inferred from Juggernaut & Moops' posts.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Heck, I'm a white guy and Obama's being black is on my list of positives.

Same here.

Why? I can understand if you are black and it might be a reason. But if you are white, why would his race be a reason to vote for him?

I can think of a few reasons, but the best one is that having a black President will really irritate a lot of racists, which I'd consider to be a good thing.

Okay...help me with some of the others. That is not what I inferred from Juggernaut & Moops' posts.

Another is that a black President may have some advantages over a white President when it comes to promoting good race relations in this country.

 

[Saints-Man]

Heck, I'm a white guy and Obama's being black is on my list of positives.

Same here.

Why? I can understand if you are black and it might be a reason. But if you are white, why would his race be a reason to vote for him?

I can think of a few reasons, but the best one is that having a black President will really irritate a lot of racists, which I'd consider to be a good thing.

Okay...help me with some of the others. That is not what I inferred from Juggernaut & Moops' posts.

Another is that a black President may have some advantages over a white President when it comes to promoting good race relations in this country.

How do you think that will manifest itself? Do you think that people who have a lower opinion of black people now will suddenly feel blacks are better(to the point of equal)? I just don't see that happening. From before, it may anger racists but it may not make them any more angry. I don't see it as a benefit or a detriment. I am an Obama supporter, but his race has no bearing whatsoever.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Heck, I'm a white guy and Obama's being black is on my list of positives.

Same here.

Why? I can understand if you are black and it might be a reason. But if you are white, why would his race be a reason to vote for him?

I can think of a few reasons, but the best one is that having a black President will really irritate a lot of racists, which I'd consider to be a good thing.

Okay...help me with some of the others. That is not what I inferred from Juggernaut & Moops' posts.

Another is that a black President may have some advantages over a white President when it comes to promoting good race relations in this country.

How do you think that will manifest itself?

I think a lot of people in predominantly black communities tend to distrust the federal government, including the office of the President. "George Bush doesn't care about black people." Having a black President may help alleviate some of those feelings.

 

[Saints-Man]

Heck, I'm a white guy and Obama's being black is on my list of positives.

Same here.

Why? I can understand if you are black and it might be a reason. But if you are white, why would his race be a reason to vote for him?

I can think of a few reasons, but the best one is that having a black President will really irritate a lot of racists, which I'd consider to be a good thing.

Okay...help me with some of the others. That is not what I inferred from Juggernaut & Moops' posts.

Another is that a black President may have some advantages over a white President when it comes to promoting good race relations in this country.

How do you think that will manifest itself?

I think a lot of people in predominantly black communities tend to distrust the government and its representatives, including the office of the President. "George Bush doesn't care about black people." Having a black President may help alleviate some of those feelings.

That's a valid point, but again isn't that from the perspective of black people? Do you really think that black people in crime-ridden neighborhoods are going to participate more fully with local law enforcement because there is a black president? The large number of black mayors certainly has not had an effect on this trend. How does that faith, which is a feeling, translate into anything tangible?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Heck, I'm a white guy and Obama's being black is on my list of positives.

Same here.

Why? I can understand if you are black and it might be a reason. But if you are white, why would his race be a reason to vote for him?

I can think of a few reasons, but the best one is that having a black President will really irritate a lot of racists, which I'd consider to be a good thing.

Okay...help me with some of the others. That is not what I inferred from Juggernaut & Moops' posts.

Another is that a black President may have some advantages over a white President when it comes to promoting good race relations in this country.

How do you think that will manifest itself?

I think a lot of people in predominantly black communities tend to distrust the government and its representatives, including the office of the President. "George Bush doesn't care about black people." Having a black President may help alleviate some of those feelings.

That's a valid point, but again isn't that from the perspective of black people? Do you really think that black people in crime-ridden neighborhoods are going to participate more fully with local law enforcement because there is a black president? The large number of black mayors certainly has not had an effect on this trend. How does that faith, which is a feeling, translate into anything tangible?

I don't know. Personally, I just like the fact that a lot of racists will be annoyed.

 

[Saints-Man]

MT, from my experience with racists, there are annoyed that blacks live in the confines of the US. Maybe it will, but I am unsure that racists will be any more annoyed that a person who is half-black who is president will cause them any more distress.

 

[NCCommish]

MT, from my experience with racists, there are annoyed that blacks live in the confines of the US. Maybe it will, but I am unsure that racists will be any more annoyed that a person who is half-black who is president will cause them any more distress.

There are people it will make hate life. There will be much gnashing of teeth and cursing. It is a fun side effect.

 

[Saints-Man]

MT, from my experience with racists, there are annoyed that blacks live in the confines of the US. Maybe it will, but I am unsure that racists will be any more annoyed that a person who is half-black who is president will cause them any more distress.

There are people it will make hate life. There will be much gnashing of teeth and cursing. It is a fun side effect.

NCC, can you see any other reason to think that Obama being black is a reason for a white person to vote for him?