*** Official Barack Obama FBG campaign headquarters *** (3 Viewers)

[NorvilleBarnes]

It will be interesting if this endorsement pays off - a great commercial as well

Ralph Stanley Endorses Barack

I hope it works.

That's a solid ad

You know through all the BS that goes on in campaigns this is one of those moments that lets you know Obama gets it - it really is an amazing bit of campaign work. The Obama campaign may go down as one of the greatest stories in American political history.

His extremely steady and level-headed campaign is a reflection of him.

I don't get the love here. Cliff notes?WhoTF is Ralph Stanley?

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

IT'S OVER. You can't just concede Michigan like that and expect to still pull this off.

I remember when Dukakis pulled out of Florida. We were all like It's impossible to calculate the domino effect this has.Everyone was talking about strategic allocation of resources.But we knew.

 

[NCCommish]

It will be interesting if this endorsement pays off - a great commercial as well

Ralph Stanley Endorses Barack

I hope it works.

That's a solid ad

You know through all the BS that goes on in campaigns this is one of those moments that lets you know Obama gets it - it really is an amazing bit of campaign work. The Obama campaign may go down as one of the greatest stories in American political history.

His extremely steady and level-headed campaign is a reflection of him.

I don't get the love here. Cliff notes?WhoTF is Ralph Stanley?

Big time blue grass muscian from rural Virginia. A bit of a legend in those parts.

 

[Gr00vus]

Biden brought his A game, awesome job. Feeling even better about this ticket than before.

 

[culdeus]

The VP debate will actually energize the democratic base.

Biden = Substance.



Watch as people become as active as they were 10 months ago.

What's the point? 5 states are in play.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

The VP debate will actually energize the democratic base.

Biden = Substance.



Watch as people become as active as they were 10 months ago.

What's the point? 5 states are in play.

Because in the 10 swing states those people get other people to vote.And if the reverse was true (for Palin) it would be incredibly important.

The point is, that this VP debate has a very good outcome beyond any polling.

 

[Futility]

Another example of how good Obama's campaign has been: LINK

Obama takes campaign to the iPhone

(CNN) — Sen. Barack Obama, who has made his virtual campaign as much of a priority as its real-world counterpart, is making a play for iPhone users.

Over the weekend, the campaign launched a volunteer-developed application that iPhoners can download. "Obama '08″, which is free through the Apple.com iTunes store, features several options aimed at supporters and undecided voters.

– The "Call Friends" tab allows users to use their electronic phonebook to call contacts, with top priority given to contacts in local and battleground states. The application tells users no personal data or contacts will be uploaded or stored — though the number of calls made will be “uploaded anonymously."

– The "Get Involved" option gives iPhoners the phone numbers to Obama campaign

headquarters around the country, depending on where the user is located; they can also find out about “Local Events.” Both functions are based on the GPS feature of the phone.

– iPhone users can "Receive Updates" through e-mail and text message alerts.

– "News" features statements put out by the Obama campaign, separated by national and local categories; "Media" features links to YouTube videos put out by the campaign; Users are able to directly watch the video, as well as e-mail it out.

– An "Issue" feature highlights all of Obama's positions, from civil rights to Iraq.

Naturally, like any good campaign tool, the Obama iPhone application comes complete with a fundraising pitch.

At the bottom of the application menu, there's a green "Donate" button. Once clicked, a disclaimer appears: "You are about to dial the Obama for America donation hotline, exiting this application. Contributions are not tax deductible for federal income tax purposes."

And for users who may feel this campaign season will never end, a particularly re-assuring feature pops up right next to the donate button: An election countdown.

Recently I've been noticing that the Obama table on UT-Austin's campus is consistently full, registering new voters (about 100 feet from where early voting will take place).

Obama's not taking Texas. Might capture a few more state and national seats, but get real. Austin went for Kerry last time too. Only county that did.

I know that, but thanks. Just offering a personal example of how the campaign is well organized.

 

[NorrisB]

So how much of a hit do we take in the polls after tonight?

 

[Homer J Simpson]

So how much of a hit do we take in the polls after tonight?

Nada.

 

[NCCommish]

So how much of a hit do we take in the polls after tonight?

Nada.

My guess is the long term trend continues.

 

[DanFouts]

All these people thinking Palin won is pathetic. She beat her own horrible horrible expectations. Is that what America has come to ask of their leaders....pathetic.

She never answered with any substance. Biden brought it all.

All Palin did was learn how to mask her own ignorance better.

Guiliani, who I used to respect, said Palin's debate was the best debate he has seen in his entire life.....what???????

 

[Fennis]

All these people thinking Palin won is pathetic. She beat her own horrible horrible expectations. Is that what America has come to ask of their leaders....pathetic.She never answered with any substance. Biden brought it all.All Palin did was learn how to mask her own ignorance better.Guiliani, who I used to respect, said Palin's debate was the best debate he has seen in his entire life.....what???????

Meh,1) Im willing to bet the Gallup poll, shows that Biden won the debate, by a 5-10 point margin.2) VP debates dont matter. Neither one harmed their candidate and that was the goal.

 

[Capn Crunch]

WhoTF is Ralph Stanley?

Asking that question in mountain country Virginia and West Virginia is like walking into the late, lamented CBGBs and asking "WhoTF is Joey Ramone?"Except that Ralph has more pull.I'm absolutely dead serious.

 

[Clayton Gray]

I'm getting the same vibe as during the primaries where an Obama victory is simply becoming inevitable. If you look at the state-by-state situation, it's becoming more and more apparent that McCain would have to start walking on water or suddenly gain the ability to do jumping jacks to turn this tide around.I'm not saying it's time for the QB to down the ball, but it's definitely time to get the power running game going. A couple of first downs and this thing's over.

 

[djcolts]

All these people thinking Palin won is pathetic. She beat her own horrible horrible expectations. Is that what America has come to ask of their leaders....pathetic.She never answered with any substance. Biden brought it all.All Palin did was learn how to mask her own ignorance better.Guiliani, who I used to respect, said Palin's debate was the best debate he has seen in his entire life.....what???????

Meh,1) Im willing to bet the Gallup poll, shows that Biden won the debate, by a 5-10 point margin.2) VP debates dont matter. Neither one harmed their candidate and that was the goal.

Biden won the CNN debate poll by 15. He won the CBS debate poll by more than that. The media may spin it as a draw - but it wasn't one. Biden got in a lot of body blows on John McCain - Palin did virtually no damage to Obama last night. But, the big political story yesterday was McCain's campaign withdrawing from Michigan. That is huge.

 

[David Dodds]

I went outside late last night because I heard a loud noise. When I walked out on my balcony, it was clear what it was.....

A fat lady singing......

It's OVAH. My prediction is McCain will start concentrating on helping to save Senate seats pretty soon.

 

[timschochet]

I went outside late last night because I heard a loud noise. When I walked out on my balcony, it was clear what it was.....A fat lady singing......It's OVAH. My prediction is McCain will start concentrating on helping to save Senate seats pretty soon.

I don't think it's over yet, but it does not look good for McCain right now. Obama has jumped out ahead in Florida. If Obama wins Florida, of course, the election is over. Obama can win the election without Florida, but McCain can't.

 

[adonis]

I'm getting the same vibe as during the primaries where an Obama victory is simply becoming inevitable. If you look at the state-by-state situation, it's becoming more and more apparent that McCain would have to start walking on water or suddenly gain the ability to do jumping jacks to turn this tide around.I'm not saying it's time for the QB to down the ball, but it's definitely time to get the power running game going. A couple of first downs and this thing's over.

The only problem I see happening here is overconfidence, and a low turnout among Obama supporters, assuming it's going to be a big victory. Combine that with potentially, the bradley effect, and this could possibly be a closer race than we'd like to see.

 

[adonis]

And still, from what I'm hearing, it's traditional for there to be one final swing back towards McCain here in the waning weeks of the campaign.

The more time goes by, the more prone I am to believe it's gonna come from a good debate performance by McCain, as at this point, he has little to lose, and can attack rather strongly and not risk losing a strong position.

 

[Genedoc]

I'm getting the same vibe as during the primaries where an Obama victory is simply becoming inevitable. If you look at the state-by-state situation, it's becoming more and more apparent that McCain would have to start walking on water or suddenly gain the ability to do jumping jacks to turn this tide around.I'm not saying it's time for the QB to down the ball, but it's definitely time to get the power running game going. A couple of first downs and this thing's over.

The only problem I see happening here is overconfidence, and a low turnout among Obama supporters, assuming it's going to be a big victory. Combine that with potentially, the bradley effect, and this could possibly be a closer race than we'd like to see.

Both of these concern me as well. They need to keep doing exactly what they've been doing and pressing ahead. The VP debate was a beautiful thing to watch - the gravitas Biden provided was in stark contrast the the "Golly gee, I've only been doin this for 5 weeks, I'm a Maverick...wink, wink" shtick. My wife said she puked a little in her mouth when she was Palin wink, and predicted that other professional women would also have a very strong negative reaction to that. She just shook her head and said "What professional woman WINKS during a job interview?!? Are you kidding me? This isn't the PTA, lady". Most importantly, I hope that should Obama win, he and Biden take a long, hard look at what Bill Clinton did that made him so successful and so beloved. It's clear that both Obama and Biden are very, very smart guys, and we need smart folks in office right now. We desperately need fiscal responsibility back in the government - the neocon/Bush strategy of bankrupting the federal government is growing some deep roots. If he wins and turns a (D) majority and Presidency into a Clintonian budget, the Democratic party will make huge strides with the fiscally conservative moderates who are sick of the GOP genuflecting to the wingnut religious right. If he does what the GOP did and spends wildly on things he likes because the Congress is with him and drives us deeper into debt, we're in serious trouble.

 

[culdeus]

I called BO nomination after Super Tuesday. The math did not favor HRC regardless of whatever events followed those days. I'm ready to call the general election for BO. The way the polls are breaking and the way the general mood of the country is WRT the economy and how foreign policy has not become the referendum here makes it impossible for me to see how JM can win this in any situation. At this point the worst case I can see for BO is 290 or so.

The "east coast" comment by Palin shows everything IMO. It's just that the east coast represents some 170+ votes for BO. They've conceded both coasts with the exception of SC and GA. Hell even backwards West Virginia is now looking to tip to BO.

The way I see it he's got almost certainly

170 east coast and new england votes (~150 worst case, ~180 best case)

78 west coast votes (mortal lock)

All he has to do is hang onto IL and pick up just one or two midwest states and it's over.

If I had to set a vegas line at this point I'd put it somewhere Obama by 140.

I've supported him for awhile. I "worked" for him down in TX during the primaries and I'm a little lukewarm on some of his stuff. I'm really lukewarm on Biden, but the way he's handled himself makes me think that he will be able to really get some quality work done right away. He's already talking cabinet privately and the people that are being mentioned are some of the strongest I've seen. No "good old boy" network to be found.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

The VP debate was a beautiful thing to watch - the gravitas Biden provided was in stark contrast the the "Golly gee, I've only been doin this for 5 weeks, I'm a Maverick...wink, wink" shtick. My wife said she puked a little in her mouth when she was Palin wink, and predicted that other professional women would also have a very strong negative reaction to that. She just shook her head and said "What professional woman WINKS during a job interview?!? Are you kidding me? This isn't the PTA, lady".

From Megan McArdle's live-blogging of the debate:
9:08 Sarah Palin winks at the camera. I didn't believe it the first time I saw it; thank god for TiVo. I think all three million viewers are supposed to come up to her hotel room with a bottle of champagne after the debate.

 

[bigbottom]

The VP debate was a beautiful thing to watch - the gravitas Biden provided was in stark contrast the the "Golly gee, I've only been doin this for 5 weeks, I'm a Maverick...wink, wink" shtick. My wife said she puked a little in her mouth when she was Palin wink, and predicted that other professional women would also have a very strong negative reaction to that. She just shook her head and said "What professional woman WINKS during a job interview?!? Are you kidding me? This isn't the PTA, lady".

From Megan McArdle's live-blogging of the debate:
9:08 Sarah Palin winks at the camera. I didn't believe it the first time I saw it; thank god for TiVo. I think all three million viewers are supposed to come up to her hotel room with a bottle of champagne after the debate.

I think I've seen that one already. I may still have the VHS tape somewhere.

 

[Genedoc]

I called BO nomination after Super Tuesday. The math did not favor HRC regardless of whatever events followed those days. I'm ready to call the general election for BO. The way the polls are breaking and the way the general mood of the country is WRT the economy and how foreign policy has not become the referendum here makes it impossible for me to see how JM can win this in any situation. At this point the worst case I can see for BO is 290 or so.

The "east coast" comment by Palin shows everything IMO. It's just that the east coast represents some 170+ votes for BO. They've conceded both coasts with the exception of SC and GA. Hell even backwards West Virginia is now looking to tip to BO.

The way I see it he's got almost certainly

170 east coast and new england votes (~150 worst case, ~180 best case)

78 west coast votes (mortal lock)

All he has to do is hang onto IL and pick up just one or two midwest states and it's over.

If I had to set a vegas line at this point I'd put it somewhere Obama by 140.

I've supported him for awhile. I "worked" for him down in TX during the primaries and I'm a little lukewarm on some of his stuff. I'm really lukewarm on Biden, but the way he's handled himself makes me think that he will be able to really get some quality work done right away. He's already talking cabinet privately and the people that are being mentioned are some of the strongest I've seen. No "good old boy" network to be found.

That is exactly what we need - a collection of the best and the brightest as opposed to the 8 years of cronyism we're approaching the (hopeful) end of. I'd love to see Sam Nunn somewhere in that cabinet, perhaps as SOD.

 

[flufhed]

The VP debate was a beautiful thing to watch - the gravitas Biden provided was in stark contrast the the "Golly gee, I've only been doin this for 5 weeks, I'm a Maverick...wink, wink" shtick. My wife said she puked a little in her mouth when she was Palin wink, and predicted that other professional women would also have a very strong negative reaction to that. She just shook her head and said "What professional woman WINKS during a job interview?!? Are you kidding me? This isn't the PTA, lady".

From Megan McArdle's live-blogging of the debate:
9:08 Sarah Palin winks at the camera. I didn't believe it the first time I saw it; thank god for TiVo. I think all three million viewers are supposed to come up to her hotel room with a bottle of champagne after the debate.

OH SNAP

 

[Sammy3469]

I'm getting the same vibe as during the primaries where an Obama victory is simply becoming inevitable. If you look at the state-by-state situation, it's becoming more and more apparent that McCain would have to start walking on water or suddenly gain the ability to do jumping jacks to turn this tide around.I'm not saying it's time for the QB to down the ball, but it's definitely time to get the power running game going. A couple of first downs and this thing's over.

The only problem I see happening here is overconfidence, and a low turnout among Obama supporters, assuming it's going to be a big victory. Combine that with potentially, the bradley effect, and this could possibly be a closer race than we'd like to see.

I had a post on this all qeueud up yesterday, but work interferred before I could get done. McCain has to close this fast and by fast I mean within the next week or for all intents this election is over. Combing early voting with large leads when that early voting is done is almost fatal for the guy behind especially when close to a third of the population will vote early. Take VA which is probably somewhere around +5% for Obama at this point. If a third vote early at +5%, McCain would then have to win election day by something like 3% points. So instead of needing to reverse the popluation 5 points he'd need to move the needle 8 points in total. It makes it that much easier to just run out the clock and not do something stupid. This was one of the problems Obama had in CA where Clinton had socked away so many early votes.

 

[DPRugby]

I called BO nomination after Super Tuesday. The math did not favor HRC regardless of whatever events followed those days. I'm ready to call the general election for BO. The way the polls are breaking and the way the general mood of the country is WRT the economy and how foreign policy has not become the referendum here makes it impossible for me to see how JM can win this in any situation. At this point the worst case I can see for BO is 290 or so. The "east coast" comment by Palin shows everything IMO. It's just that the east coast represents some 170+ votes for BO. They've conceded both coasts with the exception of SC and GA. Hell even backwards West Virginia is now looking to tip to BO. The way I see it he's got almost certainly170 east coast and new england votes (~150 worst case, ~180 best case)78 west coast votes (mortal lock)All he has to do is hang onto IL and pick up just one or two midwest states and it's over. If I had to set a vegas line at this point I'd put it somewhere Obama by 140. I've supported him for awhile. I "worked" for him down in TX during the primaries and I'm a little lukewarm on some of his stuff. I'm really lukewarm on Biden, but the way he's handled himself makes me think that he will be able to really get some quality work done right away. He's already talking cabinet privately and the people that are being mentioned are some of the strongest I've seen. No "good old boy" network to be found.

Seems like pretty solid logic to me. I just don't see how McCain will pick up any sizable bounce in the next four weeks.

 

[fluorescent walkway]

I called BO nomination after Super Tuesday. The math did not favor HRC regardless of whatever events followed those days. I'm ready to call the general election for BO. The way the polls are breaking and the way the general mood of the country is WRT the economy and how foreign policy has not become the referendum here makes it impossible for me to see how JM can win this in any situation. At this point the worst case I can see for BO is 290 or so.

The "east coast" comment by Palin shows everything IMO. It's just that the east coast represents some 170+ votes for BO. They've conceded both coasts with the exception of SC and GA. Hell even backwards West Virginia is now looking to tip to BO.

The way I see it he's got almost certainly

170 east coast and new england votes (~150 worst case, ~180 best case)

78 west coast votes (mortal lock)

All he has to do is hang onto IL and pick up just one or two midwest states and it's over.

If I had to set a vegas line at this point I'd put it somewhere Obama by 140.

I've supported him for awhile. I "worked" for him down in TX during the primaries and I'm a little lukewarm on some of his stuff. I'm really lukewarm on Biden, but the way he's handled himself makes me think that he will be able to really get some quality work done right away. He's already talking cabinet privately and the people that are being mentioned are some of the strongest I've seen. No "good old boy" network to be found.

That is exactly what we need - a collection of the best and the brightest as opposed to the 8 years of cronyism we're approaching the (hopeful) end of. I'd love to see Sam Nunn somewhere in that cabinet, perhaps as SOD.

I'd think Hillery Clinton as AG in the second would be a bigger steal than Nunn.

 

[culdeus]

I called BO nomination after Super Tuesday. The math did not favor HRC regardless of whatever events followed those days. I'm ready to call the general election for BO. The way the polls are breaking and the way the general mood of the country is WRT the economy and how foreign policy has not become the referendum here makes it impossible for me to see how JM can win this in any situation. At this point the worst case I can see for BO is 290 or so.

The "east coast" comment by Palin shows everything IMO. It's just that the east coast represents some 170+ votes for BO. They've conceded both coasts with the exception of SC and GA. Hell even backwards West Virginia is now looking to tip to BO.

The way I see it he's got almost certainly

170 east coast and new england votes (~150 worst case, ~180 best case)

78 west coast votes (mortal lock)

All he has to do is hang onto IL and pick up just one or two midwest states and it's over.

If I had to set a vegas line at this point I'd put it somewhere Obama by 140.

I've supported him for awhile. I "worked" for him down in TX during the primaries and I'm a little lukewarm on some of his stuff. I'm really lukewarm on Biden, but the way he's handled himself makes me think that he will be able to really get some quality work done right away. He's already talking cabinet privately and the people that are being mentioned are some of the strongest I've seen. No "good old boy" network to be found.

That is exactly what we need - a collection of the best and the brightest as opposed to the 8 years of cronyism we're approaching the (hopeful) end of. I'd love to see Sam Nunn somewhere in that cabinet, perhaps as SOD.

I'd think Hillery Clinton as AG in the second would be a bigger steal than Nunn.

Well, even publicly he's said HRC might actually best serve as AG. Gates is a near lock in my mind to stay on as SOD. Nunn for SOS perhaps?

 

[Fennis]

I called BO nomination after Super Tuesday. The math did not favor HRC regardless of whatever events followed those days. I'm ready to call the general election for BO. The way the polls are breaking and the way the general mood of the country is WRT the economy and how foreign policy has not become the referendum here makes it impossible for me to see how JM can win this in any situation. At this point the worst case I can see for BO is 290 or so.

The "east coast" comment by Palin shows everything IMO. It's just that the east coast represents some 170+ votes for BO. They've conceded both coasts with the exception of SC and GA. Hell even backwards West Virginia is now looking to tip to BO.

The way I see it he's got almost certainly

170 east coast and new england votes (~150 worst case, ~180 best case)

78 west coast votes (mortal lock)

All he has to do is hang onto IL and pick up just one or two midwest states and it's over.

If I had to set a vegas line at this point I'd put it somewhere Obama by 140.

I've supported him for awhile. I "worked" for him down in TX during the primaries and I'm a little lukewarm on some of his stuff. I'm really lukewarm on Biden, but the way he's handled himself makes me think that he will be able to really get some quality work done right away. He's already talking cabinet privately and the people that are being mentioned are some of the strongest I've seen. No "good old boy" network to be found.

That is exactly what we need - a collection of the best and the brightest as opposed to the 8 years of cronyism we're approaching the (hopeful) end of. I'd love to see Sam Nunn somewhere in that cabinet, perhaps as SOD.

I'd think Hillery Clinton as AG in the second would be a bigger steal than Nunn.

Well, even publicly he's said HRC might actually best serve as AG. Gates is a near lock in my mind to stay on as SOD. Nunn for SOS perhaps?

I see no reason Gates would be SOD. None. I would also be shocked if Nunn was in the cabinet.

 

[culdeus]

I called BO nomination after Super Tuesday. The math did not favor HRC regardless of whatever events followed those days. I'm ready to call the general election for BO. The way the polls are breaking and the way the general mood of the country is WRT the economy and how foreign policy has not become the referendum here makes it impossible for me to see how JM can win this in any situation. At this point the worst case I can see for BO is 290 or so.

The "east coast" comment by Palin shows everything IMO. It's just that the east coast represents some 170+ votes for BO. They've conceded both coasts with the exception of SC and GA. Hell even backwards West Virginia is now looking to tip to BO.

The way I see it he's got almost certainly

170 east coast and new england votes (~150 worst case, ~180 best case)

78 west coast votes (mortal lock)

All he has to do is hang onto IL and pick up just one or two midwest states and it's over.

If I had to set a vegas line at this point I'd put it somewhere Obama by 140.

I've supported him for awhile. I "worked" for him down in TX during the primaries and I'm a little lukewarm on some of his stuff. I'm really lukewarm on Biden, but the way he's handled himself makes me think that he will be able to really get some quality work done right away. He's already talking cabinet privately and the people that are being mentioned are some of the strongest I've seen. No "good old boy" network to be found.

That is exactly what we need - a collection of the best and the brightest as opposed to the 8 years of cronyism we're approaching the (hopeful) end of. I'd love to see Sam Nunn somewhere in that cabinet, perhaps as SOD.

I'd think Hillery Clinton as AG in the second would be a bigger steal than Nunn.

Well, even publicly he's said HRC might actually best serve as AG. Gates is a near lock in my mind to stay on as SOD. Nunn for SOS perhaps?

I see no reason Gates would be SOD. None. I would also be shocked if Nunn was in the cabinet.

I've made an appointment in my outlook to bump this in January. Of all the cabinet slots that is the one I am the absolute most confident about. I would be stunned and saddened to see him ousted as he's done the best job of anyone in the Bush Admin. He's earned the right to keep going.

 

[The Juggernaut]

I called BO nomination after Super Tuesday. The math did not favor HRC regardless of whatever events followed those days. I'm ready to call the general election for BO. The way the polls are breaking and the way the general mood of the country is WRT the economy and how foreign policy has not become the referendum here makes it impossible for me to see how JM can win this in any situation. At this point the worst case I can see for BO is 290 or so.

The "east coast" comment by Palin shows everything IMO. It's just that the east coast represents some 170+ votes for BO. They've conceded both coasts with the exception of SC and GA. Hell even backwards West Virginia is now looking to tip to BO.

The way I see it he's got almost certainly

170 east coast and new england votes (~150 worst case, ~180 best case)

78 west coast votes (mortal lock)

All he has to do is hang onto IL and pick up just one or two midwest states and it's over.

If I had to set a vegas line at this point I'd put it somewhere Obama by 140.

I've supported him for awhile. I "worked" for him down in TX during the primaries and I'm a little lukewarm on some of his stuff. I'm really lukewarm on Biden, but the way he's handled himself makes me think that he will be able to really get some quality work done right away. He's already talking cabinet privately and the people that are being mentioned are some of the strongest I've seen. No "good old boy" network to be found.

That is exactly what we need - a collection of the best and the brightest as opposed to the 8 years of cronyism we're approaching the (hopeful) end of. I'd love to see Sam Nunn somewhere in that cabinet, perhaps as SOD.

I'd think Hillery Clinton as AG in the second would be a bigger steal than Nunn.

Well, even publicly he's said HRC might actually best serve as AG. Gates is a near lock in my mind to stay on as SOD. Nunn for SOS perhaps?

Would Hillary give up a seat in the Senate for the AG position? How would it help her politically? Better experience for another Pres run? Help her be more qualified for a SCOTUS seat?

 

[culdeus]

I called BO nomination after Super Tuesday. The math did not favor HRC regardless of whatever events followed those days. I'm ready to call the general election for BO. The way the polls are breaking and the way the general mood of the country is WRT the economy and how foreign policy has not become the referendum here makes it impossible for me to see how JM can win this in any situation. At this point the worst case I can see for BO is 290 or so.

The "east coast" comment by Palin shows everything IMO. It's just that the east coast represents some 170+ votes for BO. They've conceded both coasts with the exception of SC and GA. Hell even backwards West Virginia is now looking to tip to BO.

The way I see it he's got almost certainly

170 east coast and new england votes (~150 worst case, ~180 best case)

78 west coast votes (mortal lock)

All he has to do is hang onto IL and pick up just one or two midwest states and it's over.

If I had to set a vegas line at this point I'd put it somewhere Obama by 140.

I've supported him for awhile. I "worked" for him down in TX during the primaries and I'm a little lukewarm on some of his stuff. I'm really lukewarm on Biden, but the way he's handled himself makes me think that he will be able to really get some quality work done right away. He's already talking cabinet privately and the people that are being mentioned are some of the strongest I've seen. No "good old boy" network to be found.

That is exactly what we need - a collection of the best and the brightest as opposed to the 8 years of cronyism we're approaching the (hopeful) end of. I'd love to see Sam Nunn somewhere in that cabinet, perhaps as SOD.

I'd think Hillery Clinton as AG in the second would be a bigger steal than Nunn.

Well, even publicly he's said HRC might actually best serve as AG. Gates is a near lock in my mind to stay on as SOD. Nunn for SOS perhaps?

Would Hillary give up a seat in the Senate for the AG position? How would it help her politically? Better experience for another Pres run? Help her be more qualified for a SCOTUS seat?

She's not going to run in 8 years. Too old and will be back of mind for most.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Both of these concern me as well. They need to keep doing exactly what they've been doing and pressing ahead.

The VP debate was a beautiful thing to watch - the gravitas Biden provided was in stark contrast the the "Golly gee, I've only been doin this for 5 weeks, I'm a Maverick...wink, wink" shtick. My wife said she puked a little in her mouth when she was Palin wink, and predicted that other professional women would also have a very strong negative reaction to that. She just shook her head and said "What professional woman WINKS during a job interview?!? Are you kidding me? This isn't the PTA, lady".

Most importantly, I hope that should Obama win, he and Biden take a long, hard look at what Bill Clinton did that made him so successful and so beloved. It's clear that both Obama and Biden are very, very smart guys, and we need smart folks in office right now. We desperately need fiscal responsibility back in the government - the neocon/Bush strategy of bankrupting the federal government is growing some deep roots. If he wins and turns a (D) majority and Presidency into a Clintonian budget, the Democratic party will make huge strides with the fiscally conservative moderates who are sick of the GOP genuflecting to the wingnut religious right. If he does what the GOP did and spends wildly on things he likes because the Congress is with him and drives us deeper into debt, we're in serious trouble.

This is a great post - and I particulary agree with the bold. If Obama is fiscally responsible and makes inroads to getting our economy back on track and reducing our deficit, he could really set the democratic party up for a strong next few decades. If liberals can point to both the Clinton years and the Obama years as successful for our economy, while also highlighting the debacle of the Bush administration, it will be very difficult for conservative to continue to push the tired, outdated, and inaccurate talking points that scare fiscal conservatives away from democrats.Economists overwhelmingly support Obama in a few of the pieces I've read, so I have little doubt that he'll put together a fantastic team. Obviously the economy being in the crapper won't help, and sometimes fiscal responsibility means everyone stepping up and paying the tab (i.e. taxes), so it's a tightrope he'll have to walk.

 

[Fennis]

I called BO nomination after Super Tuesday. The math did not favor HRC regardless of whatever events followed those days. I'm ready to call the general election for BO. The way the polls are breaking and the way the general mood of the country is WRT the economy and how foreign policy has not become the referendum here makes it impossible for me to see how JM can win this in any situation. At this point the worst case I can see for BO is 290 or so.

The "east coast" comment by Palin shows everything IMO. It's just that the east coast represents some 170+ votes for BO. They've conceded both coasts with the exception of SC and GA. Hell even backwards West Virginia is now looking to tip to BO.

The way I see it he's got almost certainly

170 east coast and new england votes (~150 worst case, ~180 best case)

78 west coast votes (mortal lock)

All he has to do is hang onto IL and pick up just one or two midwest states and it's over.

If I had to set a vegas line at this point I'd put it somewhere Obama by 140.

I've supported him for awhile. I "worked" for him down in TX during the primaries and I'm a little lukewarm on some of his stuff. I'm really lukewarm on Biden, but the way he's handled himself makes me think that he will be able to really get some quality work done right away. He's already talking cabinet privately and the people that are being mentioned are some of the strongest I've seen. No "good old boy" network to be found.

That is exactly what we need - a collection of the best and the brightest as opposed to the 8 years of cronyism we're approaching the (hopeful) end of. I'd love to see Sam Nunn somewhere in that cabinet, perhaps as SOD.

I'd think Hillery Clinton as AG in the second would be a bigger steal than Nunn.

Well, even publicly he's said HRC might actually best serve as AG. Gates is a near lock in my mind to stay on as SOD. Nunn for SOS perhaps?

Would Hillary give up a seat in the Senate for the AG position? How would it help her politically? Better experience for another Pres run? Help her be more qualified for a SCOTUS seat?

She's not going to run in 8 years. Too old and will be back of mind for most.

She will continue to be Senator from New York. Nothing wrong with being a well known Senator. It is a pretty powerful position.

 

[Gr00vus]

Hey all, it's great that the numbers for Obama have been trending up lately, but with the bail out passed and Palin's decent showing in the debate I'm thinking McCain will make some sort of come back in the polls these next few days. There's also the strong possibility of McCain going negative with racial overtones thrown in that could definitely muddy the waters here. Public polls are one thing, but when people are alone and anonymous in the voting booth I think there will be a significant portion of people saying they'll vote for Obama who will find themselves unable to make the mark for a black man when it really counts.

There's 31 days left, that's a huge amount of time in which anything can happen.

I urge us all not to get complacent. I'm going to Nevada next weekend to do some door to door work. I know it's not the biggest state electorally but every vote is going to count. If you can find the time, volunteer to make phone calls to swing states, or go to the swing states in one of the events organized by the campaign.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/actioncenter

Let's not let this one get away from us here, there's too much at stake to let people like McSame and Palin into the White House - let's drive this thing home.

 

[djcolts]

This is a long but fascinating post from fivethirtyeight.com about the two camapaign's ground games:

On the Road: St. Louis County, Missouri Our apologies in advance to the Obama organizers and volunteers who aren’t going to get the full justice they deserve in this post. They believe Missouri is going blue this year, and they’re working their bodies into the ground to make that happen.We’re getting used to this relentless Obama operation: organizers trained in both tactics and campaign culture, working so hard they have trouble remembering what happened 48 hours ago – it’s too distant – and convinced that if they stay in their lane and trust the structure it’ll pay off in the end.Obama has 40 offices now open in Missouri, and Justin Hamilton, Obama’s Press Secretary for Missouri, told us that while he couldn’t confirm below or above the published reports of 150 organizers (it didn’t come from the campaign), the campaign is only adding to its ground force. Organizers have now recruited 2500 neighborhood team leaders statewide, folks who do the far more effective work than any 30-second ad or yard signs, actual face-to-face contact and persuasion of their neighbors.For a Democrat to win Missouri, he or she has to follow the Claire McCaskill map, which is win the blue urban centers in Kansas City and St. Louis city by wide margins, hold down the losses in outstate Missouri (McCaskill spent huge time in and around Springfield, and got to 42% there while Kerry only managed 37%), and then win highly populated St. Louis County (20% of Missouri’s overall vote) by enough votes to hold on for a win. McCaskill won St. Louis County by 12, Kerry only won it by 9. Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton in the County, 63% to 36%.Something interesting is happening with John McCain’s campaign. Up until now, we’ve had no trouble gaining access to field offices and volunteers. Here in St. Louis, we were told by Tina Hervey, Missouri Republican State Party Press Secretary, that she had never heard of FiveThirtyEight, and while they trusted Politico, we were people who they had to decide whether we “shouldn’t or don’t need to be talking to.” (McCain’s Missouri press secretary actually works out of Iowa, and did not return calls or email.) I told Tina that’s not a story we wanted to write, that this was our first Republican resistance, and that while she may not have heard of us, we’d probably go over 2.5 million site visits this week, now that we’re regularly past 400,000 per weekday. I told her I’d hold off writing her flat refusal and give her the opportunity to change her mind. No budging. We were told that we’d be asked to leave public field offices we now attempted to visit. We did not get any promised follow-up helping get access to the post-debate Palin rally last night, and we were locked out. Hmm. Let’s be clear. We've observed no comparison between these ground campaigns. To begin with, there’s a 4-1 ratio of offices in most states. We walk into McCain offices to find them closed, empty, one person, two people, sometimes three people making calls. Many times one person is calling while the other small clutch of volunteers are chatting amongst themselves. In one state, McCain’s state field director sat in one of these offices and, sotto voce, complained to us that only one man was making calls while the others were talking to each other about how much they didn't like Obama, which was true. But the field director made no effort to change this. This was the state field director.Only for the first time the other day did we see a McCain organizer make a single phone call. So we've now seen that once. The McCain organizers seem to operate as maître Ds. Let me escort you to your phone, sir. Pick any one of this sea of empty chairs. I'll be sitting over here if you need any assistance.Given a choice between taking embarrassing photos of empty phone banks, we give McCain’s people the chance to pose for photos to show us the action for what they continually claim we “just missed.” No more. We stop into offices at all open hours of the day, but generally more in the afternoon and evening. “Call time,” for both campaigns, is all day, but the time when folks over 65 are generally targeted begins in late afternoon and goes til 8 or 9pm. Universally, McCain’s people stop earlier. Even when we show up at 6:15pm, we’re told we just missed the big phone bank, or to come back in 30 minutes. If we show up an hour later, we “just missed it” again.The McCain offices are also calm, sedate. Little movement. No hustle. In the Obama offices, it's a whirlwind. People move. It's a dynamic bustle. You can feel it in our photos.Up to this point, we’ve been giving McCain's ground campaign a lot of benefit of the doubt. We can’t stop convincing ourselves that there must – must – be a warehouse full of 1,000 McCain volunteers somewhere in a national, central location just dialing away. This can’t be all they’re doing. Because even in a place like Colorado Springs, McCain’s ground campaign is getting blown away by the Obama efforts. It doesn't mean Obama will win Colorado Springs, but it means Obama's campaign will not look itself in the mirror afterward and ask, "what more could we have done?"You could take every McCain volunteer we’ve seen doing actual work in the entire trip, over six states, and it would add up to the same as Obama’s single Thornton, CO office. Or his single Durango, CO office. These ground campaigns bear no relationship to each other.Here on out, our skepticism is going to be higher. We truly respect organizers on both sides, because it is grindingly hard work for minimal pay. It’s powered by a belief in doing what’s right. We do not quote them or get them in trouble. Moreover, we truly respect direct action by volunteers – who do exist on the McCain side, just as a tiny, tiny fraction of the Obama side – but if the attitude continues on this unhelpful and obstructive turn, we’re going to spend less time making excuses for what we observe. Less benefit of the doubt. Show us real work and we'll cover it. We want to.We'll be up in Chicago tonight making Nate pound RCP shooters. Then, Indiana. There's a huge story unfolding in Indiana.

 

[dancingbones]

Both of these concern me as well. They need to keep doing exactly what they've been doing and pressing ahead.

The VP debate was a beautiful thing to watch - the gravitas Biden provided was in stark contrast the the "Golly gee, I've only been doin this for 5 weeks, I'm a Maverick...wink, wink" shtick. My wife said she puked a little in her mouth when she was Palin wink, and predicted that other professional women would also have a very strong negative reaction to that. She just shook her head and said "What professional woman WINKS during a job interview?!? Are you kidding me? This isn't the PTA, lady".

Most importantly, I hope that should Obama win, he and Biden take a long, hard look at what Bill Clinton did that made him so successful and so beloved. It's clear that both Obama and Biden are very, very smart guys, and we need smart folks in office right now. We desperately need fiscal responsibility back in the government - the neocon/Bush strategy of bankrupting the federal government is growing some deep roots. If he wins and turns a (D) majority and Presidency into a Clintonian budget, the Democratic party will make huge strides with the fiscally conservative moderates who are sick of the GOP genuflecting to the wingnut religious right. If he does what the GOP did and spends wildly on things he likes because the Congress is with him and drives us deeper into debt, we're in serious trouble.

This is a great post - and I particulary agree with the bold. If Obama is fiscally responsible and makes inroads to getting our economy back on track and reducing our deficit, he could really set the democratic party up for a strong next few decades. If liberals can point to both the Clinton years and the Obama years as successful for our economy, while also highlighting the debacle of the Bush administration, it will be very difficult for conservative to continue to push the tired, outdated, and inaccurate talking points that scare fiscal conservatives away from democrats.Economists overwhelmingly support Obama in a few of the pieces I've read, so I have little doubt that he'll put together a fantastic team. Obviously the economy being in the crapper won't help, and sometimes fiscal responsibility means everyone stepping up and paying the tab (i.e. taxes), so it's a tightrope he'll have to walk.

I hope this happens. The of the GOP on this issue is completely disconnected from reality, but they still get away with making the claim - and it still sticks in the mind of most voters, I think.

 

[Clayton Gray]

This is a long but fascinating post from fivethirtyeight.com about the two camapaign's ground games:

Obama is going to take most of these battleground states with relative ease.

 

[Homer J Simpson]

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmem..._spending_n.php

McCain Campaign's Ad Spending Now Nearly 100 Percent Devoted To Attack Ads

By Greg Sargent - October 3, 2008, 2:51PM

The McCain campaign has now shifted virtually 100 percent of his national ad spending into negative ads attacking Obama, a detailed breakdown of his ad buys reveals.

By contrast, the Obama campaign is devoting less than half of his spending on ads attacking McCain. More than half of its spending is going to a spot that doesn't once mention his foe.

I asked Evan Tracey -- who tracks national ad spending for the Campaign Media Analysis Group -- to detail the amounts each campaign is spending on specific different spots. The idea was to gauge the precise degree of the McCain campaign's shift into negative mode amid his slide in the polls, and determine whether the Obama camp was following suit.

The results were striking, and suggest a sharper turn into negative campaigning as time runs low. For one thing, Tracey says, Obama is now outspending McCain by nearly two to one on the air -- Obama is spending $2.4 million per week, and McCain is spending $1.3 million weekly. But on to the breakdowns.

As of October 1 -- three days ago -- the McCain campaign's $1.3 million weekly is being broken down as follows, according to Tracey, who stressed that he himself wasn't labeling the ads either "positive" or "negative":

* Nearly half a million weekly is funding the ad called "Dome," which attacks "Obama and his liberal allies" in Congress for favoring "massive government."

* A shade more than half a million is funding the ad called "Mum," which attacks "Obama and his liberal allies" as "mum on the market crisis."

* Much of the remaining McCain money is funding a spot called "Overseas," which says that "Barack Obama and his liberal allies are to blame" for jobs going overseas. A negligible amount of the remainder is going to a positive spot, the "Original Mavericks" ad.

This is a dramatic shift from the period before he suspended his campaign. At that time, Tracey says, McCain was spending in the neighborhood of half his ad money on the positive "Original Mavericks" ad, and around half on the negative "Dome" spot.

This week, by contrast, "Original Mavericks" ran on Monday only eight times, suggesting that this positive spot is "cycling out of the rotation," as Tracey puts it. "McCain took out the "Mavericks" spot and replaced it with "Mum," Tracey says.

Now let's look at Obama's spending breakdown.

Of his $2.4 million weekly, Tracey says, well over half -- $1.4 million -- is funding the spot called "Real Change," which criticizes the status quo but doesn't mention McCain once.

The remaining million per week is funding a smattering of ads that do attack McCain, on topics like Social Security, health care, and McCain's "fundamentals of the economy" line.

Pretty striking contrast.

Stay classy, John.

 

[Gr00vus]

McCain Campaign's Ad Spending Now Nearly 100 Percent Devoted To Attack Ads

Stay classy, John.

Predictable. McCain's a dirt bag, always has been, he'd do anything to get elected. It's the only shot they have left, so it makes sense. Nothing else has worked. They're all easily refutable attacks, the overseas one in particular. I hope the public doesn't get fooled, and that Obama roasts him for this in the next 2 debates.

 

[NCCommish]

McCain Campaign's Ad Spending Now Nearly 100 Percent Devoted To Attack Ads

Stay classy, John.

Predictable. McCain's a dirt bag, always has been, he'd do anything to get elected. It's the only shot they have left, so it makes sense. Nothing else has worked. They're all easily refutable attacks, the overseas one in particular. I hope the public doesn't get fooled, and that Obama roasts him for this in the next 2 debates.

It was predictable based on who McCain hired.

 

[Statorama]

McCain Campaign's Ad Spending Now Nearly 100 Percent Devoted To Attack Ads

Stay classy, John.

Predictable. McCain's a dirt bag, always has been, he'd do anything to get elected. It's the only shot they have left, so it makes sense. Nothing else has worked. They're all easily refutable attacks, the overseas one in particular. I hope the public doesn't get fooled, and that Obama roasts him for this in the next 2 debates.

Guess there's no need to save you a seat on the Straight Talk Express, eh?

 

[Clayton Gray]

McCain Campaign's Ad Spending Now Nearly 100 Percent Devoted To Attack Ads

Stay classy, John.

Predictable. McCain's a dirt bag, always has been, he'd do anything to get elected. It's the only shot they have left, so it makes sense. Nothing else has worked. They're all easily refutable attacks, the overseas one in particular. I hope the public doesn't get fooled, and that Obama roasts him for this in the next 2 debates.

Guess there's no need to save you a seat on the Straight Talk Express, eh?

 

[Gr00vus]

McCain Campaign's Ad Spending Now Nearly 100 Percent Devoted To Attack Ads

Stay classy, John.

Predictable. McCain's a dirt bag, always has been, he'd do anything to get elected. It's the only shot they have left, so it makes sense. Nothing else has worked. They're all easily refutable attacks, the overseas one in particular. I hope the public doesn't get fooled, and that Obama roasts him for this in the next 2 debates.

Guess there's no need to save you a seat on the Straight Talk Express, eh?

 

[Clayton Gray]

Marianna teacher suspended for 'racially charged' comments about Obama

A Marianna middle-school teacher has been suspended for 10 days without pay after he wrote a racially charged interpretation of a commonly used phrase in the presidential campaign of Sen. Barack Obama.

While some parents and community activists were outraged by the actions of Greg Howard, Jackson County NAACP officials want to gather more facts before the group considers taking action. But some parents feel Howard should be fired.

Larry Moore, deputy superintendent for the Jackson County School District, said school officials determined Howard wrote an acronym with an explanation on a dry-erase board in his class Sept. 26 at Marianna Middle School.

It said, "C.H.A.N.G.E. — Come Help A (N-word) Get Elected."

Howard, who's been teaching in the district for 17 years, wrote the comment during his seventh-grade social-studies class that included 17 white students, six black students and one Asian.

Howard was suspended with pay Monday while the incident was investigated. The reprimand was elevated to a 10-day suspension without pay starting Thursday. Howard also must write a letter of apology to the students.

Howard will be reassigned to teach in the district's Adult Education Program.

"We feel like the punishment is sufficient," Moore said. "We did not feel he had to be fired."

Moore said Howard did not have any other disciplinary action prior to this incident.

But some parents are livid that the teacher would use the "N-word" in classroom.

"To me, it's hurtful," said Audrey Wad, a Marianna resident with nieces and nephews at the school. "The idea that he would impose his political opinion on the children is wrong to me. That's where he crossed the line."

Elmore Bryant, area director and former immediate past president of the Jackson County branch of the NAACP, said Howard spewed his racially charged "poison" onto students.

Bryant, who taught in Jackson County for more than 40 years, said Howard's comment was "totally inappropriate, out of place, out of character and bad timing."

Of the NAACP, he said, "It's always our position to get all the facts from all sides before we do any action."

Moore said the district will send its investigation findings to the Florida Department of Education's Office of Professional Practice Services, which will determine if further reprimands, such as revoking Howard's teacher certification, will be handed down.

Just wow.

 

[Genedoc]

McCain/Palin showing the depths of their despair today with the "Obama's close friends with terrorists" canard. Really grasping at straws.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

McCain/Palin showing the depths of their despair today with the "Obama's close friends with terrorists" canard. Really grasping at straws.

But at least this attack is true.

 

[Gopher State]

FBI investigates Obama's friend

Andrea Billups (Contact)

The Washington Post

The FBI is investigating a former Illinois state senator who is a poker-playing buddy of Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama.

According to Chicago authorities, the FBI visited the offices in Joliet, Ill., of a Will County auditor to ask questions about Larry Walsh, a longtime friend of Mr. Obama's, and his chief of staff Matt Ryan.

Mr. Walsh, who served in the Illinois Senate from 1997 to 2005, was endorsed by Mr. Obama in his county executive election bid. With the support of some of Mr. Obama's U.S. Senate volunteers, he easily defeated incumbent Republican Joseph Mikan.

Will County auditor Steve Weber confirmed that his office had been asked by the FBI to assist in an investigation, but he did not elaborate on the specifics.

Two FBI agents out of Chicago reportedly spent more than an hour in the Will County offices on Wednesday morning.

According to sources, the Walsh investigation may be tied to lobbying firm Smith Dawson and Andrews, which was hired in 2006 for $10,000 per month to help Will County acquire federal grants.

The firm, which is registered with the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, assists clients with communications and legislative strategies that better their public policy agendas, according to its Web site. Last month, Mr. Walsh announced that Will County was the recipient of a $750,000 federal government grant that would allow law enforcement and prosecutors to fight against domestic violence.

One of the firm's partners, James P. Smith, contributed $2,000 to help Mr. Walsh's county executive election bid.

A corn farmer from Joliet, Mr. Walsh has supported his friend's presidential bid, and campaigned for him in rural and farming areas of the state. They are seen hugging each other in photos before Mr. Obama's announcement that he was running for president.

The two men became tight friends during their tenure in the Illinois Senate and bonded over games of poker. According to a report in Time magazine, Mr. Walsh lost to Mr. Obama once with what he thought was a winning hand, and then slammed down his cards and said: "Doggone it, Barack, if you were more liberal in your card-playing and more conservative in your politics, you and I would get along much better."

Mr. Walsh denied any knowledge of any investigation.

"I don't have a clue what you are talking about," Mr. Walsh said in reports published Thursday in the Chicago Sun-Times.

They say you can tell alot about a person by the company they keep

 

[Clayton Gray]

They aren't friends. HTH