*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (2 Viewers)

[Alex P Keaton]

It's so weird how things vary region to region.  I'm in SoCal, and mask usage is probably around 60/40, but that being said I do know quite a few people that have had the Rona in the past 2-3 weeks or so.

Yep.  Regional.  In NY I knew tons of people with it 2-4 weeks ago.  Now?  Only a couple people who have been traveling.

In Wisconsin?  Lots of people I know are getting it in the last week.

 

[belljr]

As I've been saying, I live in NJ and we are always one of the first .

Our Ro just dropped to the lowest it's ever been since this all started. *Well the exact same as May 2021. We dropped like 50% in a week

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

There’s no good way to predict when it will be endemic and I think people get too wrapped up in labeling it as ‘done’ or ‘endemic’. I think there’s a good chance that it might be awhile but there’s also a chance that this might be it.

We still have a lot we need to improve on before we can really beat this. But that doesn’t mean we can’t be somewhat normal most of the time with periods of higher precautions when there are flare ups. Get a good long term vaccine strategy, reliable access to things like tests, masks and therapeutics and we will be able to better manage but we’re not there yet, not even close.

agreed

https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1483958728709722114

What is an "acceptable" # of COVID-19 deaths in US? Lots of folks suggesting that post-omicron we can pretend we're post-pandemic. But 1K deaths/d = 365K deaths/yr Flu avg is ~35K/yr We need avg ~100deaths/day to get near flu We've never had daily avg <225 since Mar 2020

Idk if that's accurate but if not, it's probably pretty close. I think we were close to that last summer. But here we are again, back up in the 2-3K deaths per day range. 

 

[James Daulton]

agreed

https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1483958728709722114

What is an "acceptable" # of COVID-19 deaths in US? Lots of folks suggesting that post-omicron we can pretend we're post-pandemic. But 1K deaths/d = 365K deaths/yr Flu avg is ~35K/yr We need avg ~100deaths/day to get near flu We've never had daily avg <225 since Mar 2020

Idk if that's accurate but if not, it's probably pretty close. I think we were close to that last summer. But were we are again, back up in the 2-3K deaths per day range. 

I agree.  Something that kills 35k - 50k a year is acceptable vs something that kills 10 - 20x that.  I'll wager we're just about there once Omicron finishes burning through and most of the vaxxed are boosted. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

I agree.  Something that kills 35k - 50k a year is acceptable vs something that kills 10 - 20x that.  I'll wager we're just about there once Omicron finishes burning through and most of the vaxxed are boosted. 

I’ve been a broken record with this point, but 1000 deaths a day is comparable to the number dying daily from heart attacks, our historic #1 killer. Our healthcare infrastructure cannot handle that new “normal”.

 

[Doug B]

https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1483958728709722114

What is an "acceptable" # of COVID-19 deaths in US? Lots of folks suggesting that post-omicron we can pretend we're post-pandemic. But 1K deaths/d = 365K deaths/yr Flu avg is ~35K/yr We need avg ~100deaths/day to get near flu We've never had daily avg <225 since Mar 2020

Idk if that's accurate but if not, it's probably pretty close. I think we were close to that last summer. But were we are again, back up in the 2-3K deaths per day range. 

According to Worldometers and using 7-day average, the U.S. was below 300 deaths/day from June 28 through July 14, 2021, with a low of 247 on July 8th. Of course, deaths lagged cases: from June 5 through July 2, 2021, the U.S. 7-day average for cases remained below 15,000 with a low of 12,093 on June 21.

If those levels ever came back, and stayed sustained over several months in a row with maybe only some small regional bumps ... I would bet American society would more or less collectively turn the page.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

According to Worldometers and using 7-day average, the U.S. was below 300 deaths/day from June 28 through July 14, 2021, with a low of 247 on July 8th. Of course, cases lagged deaths: from June 5 through July 2, 2021, the U.S. 7-day average for cases remained below 15,000 with a low of 12,093 on June 21.

If those levels ever came back, and stayed sustained over several months in a row with maybe only some small regional bumps ... I would bet American society would more or less collectively turn the page.

The number that has been out there is getting to 10,000 cases per day.  That is when this is basically over . . . . we were SO CLOSE.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

According to Worldometers and using 7-day average, the U.S. was below 300 deaths/day from June 28 through July 14, 2021, with a low of 247 on July 8th. Of course, cases lagged deaths: from June 5 through July 2, 2021, the U.S. 7-day average for cases remained below 15,000 with a low of 12,093 on June 21.

If those levels ever came back, and stayed sustained over several months in a row with maybe only some small regional bumps ... I would bet American society would more or less collectively turn the page.

sadly, I think we already have

 

[Dickies]

Unbelievable.

Hospital refusing heart transplant for man who won't get vaccinated

I can't even comprehend the mindset of being willing to die rather than get vaccinated.  

 

[Doug B]

The number that has been out there is getting to 10,000 cases per day.  That is when this is basically over . . . . we were SO CLOSE.

It can happen again. What the world needs is for something like a 12-18 month break on new variants that can outcompete the current reigning champ (right now, Omicron).

It's OK if we just have more variants like Gamma, Epsilon, Kappa, Eta, Zeta, and Mu. We can have all kinds of new variants that epidemiologists will monitor to study the overall genetic lineage of COVID, so long as those same variants don't outcompete Omicron. Unless: a new 'variant of interest' pops up that spreads more than Omicron but never gets worse than sniffles. Otherwise, we need Omicron to hang on for a spell.

 

[-fish-]

Unbelievable.

Hospital refusing heart transplant for man who won't get vaccinated

I can't even comprehend the mindset of being willing to die rather than get vaccinated.  

Dr. Arthur Caplan, the head of medical ethics at NYU Grossman School of Medicine, explains that being vaccinated is necessary for this type of procedure.

"Post any transplant, kidney, heart whatever, your immune system is shut off," Caplan said. "The flu could kill you, a cold could kill you, COVID could kill you. The organs are scarce, we are not going to distribute them to someone who has a poor chance of living when others who are vaccinated have a better chance post-surgery of surviving."

And while the family says DJ has received great care from doctors and nurses at Brigham and Women's, they just don't agree with the heart transplant COVID vaccination policy.

They act like they're making some sort of heroic stand.    How pointless and selfish.   Of course the heart should go to someone else who will make every effort to survive the procedure.   

 

[Terminalxylem]

They act like they're making some sort of heroic stand.    How pointless and selfish.   Of course the heart should go to someone else who will make every effort to survive the procedure.   

Someone is going to make the doctor/hospital out to be the bad guys. To be fair, I’m not sure there is historical precedent for denying transplantation based on vaccination status, but there is for drinking, smoking and other self destructive behaviors. Also, transplant patients need to follow medical advice very closely, take multiple immunosuppressive medications, and receive many vaccines. In my experience going down the antivax rabbit hole is a proxy for, ummm, difficult patients, which doesn’t bode well for organ survival.

 

[Judge Smails]

Someone is going to make the doctor/hospital out to be the bad guys. To be fair, I’m not sure there is historical precedent for denying transplantation based on vaccination status, but there is for drinking, smoking and other self destructive behaviors. Also, transplant patients need to follow medical advice very closely, take multiple immunosuppressive medications, and receive many vaccines. In my experience going down the antivax rabbit hole is a proxy for, ummm, difficult patients, which doesn’t bode well for organ survival.

Choices, meet Consequences.  Zero sympathy for this guy.  Willing to die with 3 young kids.  Unreal.  

 

[BigJim®]

There’s no way to answer your question definitively. Some factors to consider:

1. How old are you and what comorbidities do you have? 

2. Were you infected with omicron in December?

3. How severe were your symptoms?

4. Why is your doctor considering a heart scan? What about your sleep? Both heart disease and sleep apnea are risk factors for covid progression.

5. What is the covid prevalence in your community? Does your job or other activities increase your risk of exposure?

6. Do you regularly come in contact with severely immunocompromised people?

7. Why are you second guessing your doctor? What changes in the vaccine is he anticipating?

The last I heard, omicron specific boosters are expected March-ish. In all likelihood, you should be good waiting at least until then, but your answers to the above might change my mind.

Huh, this post has me wondering about my own appointment to get boosted next week. Moderna X2 last April, breakthrough of unknown strain first week of November, pretty mild but lost taste/smell so I assumed delta. The factors above don't concern me all that much, but I basically waited the 90 days after my breakthrough. I'm 52 and generally good shape, work out regularly. In my situation is it better to hold off until there is a Omicron specific booster?

 

[Terminalxylem]

Huh, this post has me wondering about my own appointment to get boosted next week. Moderna X2 last April, breakthrough of unknown strain first week of November, pretty mild but lost taste/smell so I assumed delta. The factors above don't concern me all that much, but I basically waited the 90 days after my breakthrough. I'm 52 and generally good shape, work out regularly. In my situation is it better to hold off until there is a Omicron specific booster?

Both vaccine-induced and natural immunity to prior strains don't work as well against omicron.The longer it's been since your initial vaccine series and/or infection, the greater the risk of breakthrough/reinfection. Although your November infection likely provided a natural "booster" to your immune response, it isn't guaranteed to maintain potency more than a couple months vs. omicron (durability of hybrid immunity, assuming your infection elicited a systemic response at all, remains unclear).

Boosting restores some protection, and omicron is pretty widespread most places atm. While it would be better if an omicron-specific booster were available right now, I'd rather get boosted with the OG booster during the surge than wait. But technically, you have no high risk conditions (assuming "generally good" isn't shorthand to downplay obesity or other medical problems), so no one could fault you for waiting.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

More people in my circle with this now.  My aunt just tested positive. Boosted and wears her mask (not sure what kind) but is certainly out and about (went to a movie a few weeks ago etc.)  Unfortunately, she had dinner with my 95yr old grandmother and other aunt on Sunday, where she started to not feel well and went home.  No positives for them yet.

Friend of mine's daughter tested positive this morning.  Fever and cold symptoms.  They have been super careful.  KN95 masks the entire school year and would even pick the kids up at school at lunch so that they were NEVER not masked at school.  I know they still were doing some after school activities, but I assume masked as well there.

This virus is an evolutionary masterpiece.  I also read that fomite transmission is more likely with Omicron than with other variants -- has a longer half-life more akin to a cold.  Saw a pre-print on twitter somewhere.  This confirms what China was doing last week though with requiring sterilization of foreign mail.  We should keep watching what they are doing for zero-covid as they always seem to know what is happening first . . . .

 

[stbugs]

Unbelievable.

Hospital refusing heart transplant for man who won't get vaccinated

I can't even comprehend the mindset of being willing to die rather than get vaccinated.  

It is crazy. His dad is saying that they are exploring all options. No, you aren’t. If your son is willing to leave his two daughters behind, he’s selfish and you are an awful grandfather. I’ll stick the needle in my son’s shoulder myself to keep him around. 

 

[stbugs]

They act like they're making some sort of heroic stand.    How pointless and selfish.   Of course the heart should go to someone else who will make every effort to survive the procedure.   

Beyond stupid and selfish. What stand could you take to leave your kids behind?

 

[stbugs]

Someone is going to make the doctor/hospital out to be the bad guys. To be fair, I’m not sure there is historical precedent for denying transplantation based on vaccination status, but there is for drinking, smoking and other self destructive behaviors. Also, transplant patients need to follow medical advice very closely, take multiple immunosuppressive medications, and receive many vaccines. In my experience going down the antivax rabbit hole is a proxy for, ummm, difficult patients, which doesn’t bode well for organ survival.

It’s clear that they shouldn’t go through with it. Omicrom is all over the place now. The heart should go to someone who will take the steps necessary to survive the transplant. I’m sure this is all over the anti-vax sites and it’s sad but those misinformation sites have likely killed another person.

The article is so frustrating. Dad says we are running down every option. Well no, you have an easy option right there in the same hospital. Your son wouldn’t even have to change beds.

 

[dawgtrails]

Someone is going to make the doctor/hospital out to be the bad guys. To be fair, I’m not sure there is historical precedent for denying transplantation based on vaccination status, but there is for drinking, smoking and other self destructive behaviors.

Their site sure makes it sound like they would deny a transplant to folks who refused other CDC recommended vaccinations.

Like most other transplant programs across the country, the COVID-19 vaccine is one of several vaccines and lifestyle behaviors that are required for patients awaiting solid organ transplant.

Transplant candidates must also receive the seasonal influenza and hepatitis B vaccines, follow other healthy behaviors, and demonstrate they can commit to taking the required medications following transplant.

 

[beer 30]

They act like they're making some sort of heroic stand. How pointless and selfish. Of course the heart should go to someone else who will make every effort to survive the procedure.   

"Two men say they're Jesus, at least one of them is wrong."

Both sides think they are right. Big boy choices have big boy consequences 

 

[belljr]

It is crazy. His dad is saying that they are exploring all options. No, you aren’t. If your son is willing to leave his two daughters behind, he’s selfish and you are an awful grandfather. I’ll stick the needle in my son’s shoulder myself to keep him around. 

Yep and people will make the hospital is wrong argument, and the rest I would end up saying is just going to be political so I will not

 

[culdeus]

Unbelievable.

Hospital refusing heart transplant for man who won't get vaccinated

I can't even comprehend the mindset of being willing to die rather than get vaccinated.  

This crap happens all the time.  Liver tranplants have to quit drinking etc etc.  Not sure why this is news.  It's controversial in my mind the way they treat addicts as it can be in a lot of ways correlated with racism, but this is not that.  

Let him die.   No great loss.  

 

[kylechoffman]

https://youtu.be/9jMONZMuS2U. I'm sure this will get taken down..

 

[Dickies]

It is crazy. His dad is saying that they are exploring all options. No, you aren’t. If your son is willing to leave his two daughters behind, he’s selfish and you are an awful grandfather. I’ll stick the needle in my son’s shoulder myself to keep him around. 

Yea that “aggressively pursuing all options” line really stuck out to me.  

 

[AAABatteries]

https://youtu.be/9jMONZMuS2U. I'm sure this will get taken down..

Cliff’s notes?

 

[AAABatteries]

Yea that “aggressively pursuing all options” line really stuck out to me.  

I have, in theory*, little issue with somebody who chooses to not get the vaccine if they are not impacting others but this stance by this guy is so weird.  This isn’t take my chances with no vaccine and see how I do with Covid - this is, I’m almost assuredly going to die if I don’t get this transplant.  I mean, if Covid has the fatality rate that his heart condition has would be still not get it?  Possible I guess but still really odd considering he has kids.  I would do everything I could to be around for my kids, even if it meant doing things I didn’t like. 

 

[BigJim®]

Both vaccine-induced and natural immunity to prior strains don't work as well against omicron.The longer it's been since your initial vaccine series and/or infection, the greater the risk of breakthrough/reinfection. Although your November infection likely provided a natural "booster" to your immune response, it isn't guaranteed to maintain potency more than a couple months vs. omicron (durability of hybrid immunity, assuming your infection elicited a systemic response at all, remains unclear).

Boosting restores some protection, and omicron is pretty widespread most places atm. While it would be better if an omicron-specific booster were available right now, I'd rather get boosted with the OG booster during the surge than wait. But technically, you have no high risk conditions (assuming "generally good" isn't shorthand to downplay obesity or other medical problems), so no one could fault you for waiting.

I'll probably keep my appt. Nothing to be read into "generally." Technically I am near or at the "obese" BMI after a solid year of working out, but would not refer to it as "beer belly BMI."

 

[Judge Smails]

I get to go to 2 conferences in Florida a week apart in March. Yay

 

[dawgtrails]

Cliff’s notes?

Ron Johnson continues to show that he is a terrible person and even worse senator

 

[top dog]

Cliff’s notes?

hydroxychloroquine works... Government agencies shouldn't have been involved and screwed it all up... kids taking vaccines = bad... Natural immunity denial = putting profits ahead of patients... 

At least that was the highlights I grabbed skimming it.

 

[kylechoffman]

Ron Johnson continues to show that he is a terrible person and even worse senator

Plenty of terrible people on this earth.  Example:  Dr Richard Pan, CA Senator.

 

[dawgtrails]

Plenty of terrible people on this earth.  Example:  Dr


Richard


Pan, CA Senator.

Am I supposed to know who some random state senator from CA is?

 

[Terminalxylem]

Their site sure makes it sound like they would deny a transplant to folks who refused other CDC recommended vaccinations.

Like most other transplant programs across the country, the COVID-19 vaccine is one of several vaccines and lifestyle behaviors that are required for patients awaiting solid organ transplant.

Transplant candidates must also receive the seasonal influenza and hepatitis B vaccines, follow other healthy behaviors, and demonstrate they can commit to taking the required medications following transplant.

Yeah, I figured they’d refuse liver transplant for people unwilling to get viral hepatitis immunizations, but was too lazy to look it up.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

"Two men say they're Jesus, at least one of them is wrong."

There's a protest singer, he's singing a protest song.

 

[menobrown]

Not sure how much of this is going on across the country but my daughters school district in Texas, which has over 52,000 kids, gave us a one day warning this week they were shutting down after this past Tuesday and would re-open on Monday. No virtual, just a shut down.

In response to being asked if the days would be made it they said it's only January and we might be looking at a lot more of this so TBD.

FYI the district does not require masks due to governors mask mandate.

 

[jamny]

https://youtu.be/9jMONZMuS2U. I'm sure this will get taken down..

Lots of info here. Thanks for posting.

 

[-fish-]

Cliff’s notes?

Ron Johnson creates a panel of conspiracy theorists and discredited doctors who have been profiting off of the pandemic.

 

[jobarules]

https://scitechdaily.com/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-associated-with-increased-risk-of-carditis-heart-inflammation/

Despite low absolute risk, Pfizer/BioNTech BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine associated with increased risk of carditis.

Markedly increased risk in adolescents after 2nd dose may warrant refined vaccination strategies

 

[belljr]

NJ has hit its lowest Ro since this all freaking started 

Deaths have caught up and are a touch higher than the delta surge but not by much

 

[Biff84]

https://scitechdaily.com/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-associated-with-increased-risk-of-carditis-heart-inflammation/

I don’t think there’s much new here, there is a small risk. There’s also a much higher risk of the same condition in adolescence who get COVID, I believe around 7x higher. Considering the other potential adverse effects of a COVID infection, I’m still going to take the risk of the shot every time.

 

[gianmarco]

NJ has hit its lowest Ro since this all freaking started 

Deaths have caught up and are a touch higher than the delta surge but not by much

Despite this, deaths in US were over 2600 yesterday.  We'll hit 900,000 dead here in a couple days.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

YLE: What now? How pandemics end

 

[gianmarco]

We had gotten to a point a few months ago, I believe, when we were down to just 300-400 deaths/day in the US.  Well, yesterday, we just hit over 1650 dead and over 160,000 new cases yesterday alone.  And that's with vaccinations and boosters ramping up again along with new treatments and better understanding of how to manage Covid.

We are at 826,000 deaths in less than 2 years in the US alone (and over 5M worldwide).  We are likely to hit 1,000,000 dead in this country around March, or roughly 2 years from the start. 

I know we are all tired of this, but it isn't tired of us.  Please take care of yourselves, be safe and smart, and please think of others when deciding what you do as this new surge hits us again.

39 days since this post.  At that time, cases were huge at 160,000 that previous day.  Well, yesterday there was ~450,000 new cases.  Yesterday alone.  There were 475,000 the day before that.

We've added another 70,000 deaths in those 39 days, or an average of ~1800/day. 

Almost all due to "mild" Omicron.

 

[jobarules]

I don’t think there’s much new here, there is a small risk. There’s also a much higher risk of the same condition in adolescence who get COVID, I believe around 7x higher. Considering the other potential adverse effects of a COVID infection, I’m still going to take the risk of the shot every time.

Agreed 100% but you nor I are adolescents.

7x 0.00057% is still only 0.00399%.

In other words the risk of myocarditis is negligible either way you slice. It seems silly to talk about it as a risk factor in both cases. There are more pressing worries about covid.

 

[dawgtrails]

YLE: What now? How pandemics end

Excellent article

 

[culdeus]

Daily had some good insights today.  

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3EkcpPyBgSbfKcNLCl92Lh?si=eLJhc96uRbKZqR9YcbjLxg&utm_source=copy-link

 

[Sleestak]

In other words the risk of myocarditis is negligible either way you slice. It seems silly to talk about it as a risk factor in both cases. There are more pressing worries about covid.

Concur.  Given your bolded, kind of curious why you bothered to link the article.

 

[jobarules]

Concur.  Given your bolded, kind of curious why you bothered to link the article.

It popped up on my phone and I thought it was interesting

 

[[scooter]]

Cliff’s notes?

Ron Johnson creates a panel of conspiracy theorists and discredited doctors who have been profiting off of the pandemic.

Promoting hydroxychloroquine while simultaneously complaining about putting profits ahead of patients.