*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)

[matttyl]

Tested negative last night, back to work (masked around others) starting tomorrow.

When did you first test positive and when did you first test negative?  How quickly can you go back to work from either?  Asking as wife first tested positive (and also felt bad) Saturday evening.  Is she WFH for the week?  What about household members without symptoms?

 

[nirad3]

When did you first test positive and when did you first test negative?  How quickly can you go back to work from either?  Asking as wife first tested positive (and also felt bad) Saturday evening.  Is she WFH for the week?  What about household members without symptoms?

I first tested positive on Thursday afternoon.  That being said, I had symptoms last Monday but was testing negative.  I probably had it then, was just not popping on the tests I took.

My work makes us test 5 days after testing positive (so technically I should have tested today but I did it late last night).  We are allowed to come back into the office after testing negative with no symptoms.  We still have to mask around others (walking in common areas, at meetings, etc.) for 5 days after that.

My kids and wife have no symptoms... wife's had it twice though.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

My one friend is still positive on day 15. Ugh. 

 

[PinkydaPimp]

My one friend is still positive on day 15. Ugh. 

Sheesh.

 

[Dezbelief]

RIP, Lab Leak Hypothesis?

The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic:

I think this is essentially the same conclusion the investigative reporter came to last fall/winter I believe it was (I posted it here but can't remember when or what it was called to search it lol). They mentioned the racoon dogs too, that rings a bell from the previous article as well.  Will be interesting to see the follow-up rebuttal (I'm sure there will be some) and peer-review comment. 

From this link, this seems noteworthy:

One of the key findings of our study is that ‘unlinked’ early COVID-19 patients, those who neither worked at the market or knew someone who did, nor had recently visited the market, resided significantly closer to the market than patients with a direct link to the market. The observation that a substantial proportion of early cases had no known epidemiological link had previously been used as an argument against a Huanan market epicenter of the pandemic. However, this group of cases resided significantly closer to the market than those who worked there, indicating that they had been exposed to the virus at, or near, the Huanan market. For market workers, the exposure risk was their place of work not their residential locations, which were significantly further afield than those cases not formally linked to the market.

This also reminds me that I've not seen anything further on the theories floating in Italy that they were seeing sequencing that pre-dated the Wuhan market cases. 

My understanding was the lab(or a janitor) was selling animals from the lab to vendors at the market. Has that been proven false? 

 

[Dezbelief]

The most likely explanation for the origin of this:

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/

The coincidence that this started right next to China's only BSL4 is mostly likely not.  Amazing that they routinely sell test lab animals.  Reminiscent of mad cow disease, but a whole lot worse.

And you have to love that the officials there just released a new directive - “Instructions on strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus.” Yeah, I'm sure that's coincidence, too.

(If this is a Honda, my apologies, no time to read the whole 45 pages).

And then there is this little-known fact: Some Chinese researchers are in the habit of selling their laboratory animals to street vendors after they have finished experimenting on them.

You heard me right.

Instead of properly disposing of infected animals by cremation, as the law requires, they sell them on the side to make a little extra cash. Or, in some cases, a lot of extra cash. One Beijing researcher, now in jail, made a million dollars selling his monkeys and rats on the live animal market, where they eventually wound up in someone’s stomach.

 

[Terminalxylem]

My one friend is still positive on day 15. Ugh. 

Why are they still testing?

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Why are they still testing?

Doesn’t want to go near his elderly parents, one of which has cancer, until negative. 

 

[Hooper31]

COVID TESTING AND QUARANTINE MOVING TO CHINA

I'm currently on day 7 of a 10 day quarantine in China. I have to say I'm impressed with their diligence and organization pulling this off. I thought it might be sort of a cluster F, but really they seem to have it down. Every worker I've encountered this week has been in a hazmat suit and they know what they're doing.

Before boarding the plane I had to have two negative Covid tests from two different labs. Each cost me about $180. Both tests within the past 48 hours and at least 24 hours apart.  At check in for the flight I had to show all my Covid paperwork, passport, and visa. They used WeChat (their all in one app for everything) to apply for a "green QR code". After review of the tests and a temperature check I got my personalized QR code that they scan at every test through the week. Had to wear a mask for the entire flight.

Off the they plane hoarded us to the terminal (which was completely empty) and sat us in three large groups. Within an hour we were all shuffled in a single file line to get another test. It was the deepest nasal probe I could ever imagine. It didn't hurt, but it was uncomfortable.

Next was sent to customs. It went super fast. No lines from this point on. There was a question about my invitation letter from the school I would be teaching at, but a quick text in WeChat and it was resolved.

After customs my bags (4 suitcases and my golf clubs) were waiting for me in a neat grouping. With luggage on a trolly I was sent to another group that was headed to the Zhejiang province. Each destination province was sent to a different hotel. Luckily I was on the 12th floor and had a decent view over the city. Shanghai is enormous. That's an understatement. It's so big the giant buildings downtown are hard to see in the distance. 25+ million people in one city. 3rd largest in the world now after Tokyo and Dehli. A bus picked up the group I was in and took us to a hotel.

At the hotel they checked our paperwork and shuffled us into rooms. After another immediate Covid test (oral this time) we had a lunch delivered to us and set up a group in WeChat to communicate to everyone in the group. Never left the room other than to open door and grab food or leave garbage in the hallway. One Covid test and three temperature checks per day.  There was word of a test anomaly in our group which led to us staying there for four days instead of three. Shuffled onto a bus for a smaller group specifically headed to Hangzhou. Spent three days in a hotel in the city of Jiaxing (about halfway to Hangzhou). Tests and temperatures just like the last hotel.

Tomorrow I will taken to the apartment where I'll live. Have to self-isolate there for three days. They send someone to hit me with at least one more Covid test during that time, then I'm free.

Payoff? People don't have to mask at all after spending 10 days jumping through hoops. I got lucky. It was 21 days just a couple of months ago. Looking forward to getting out an about this coming weekend.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

And then there is this little-known fact: Some Chinese researchers are in the habit of selling their laboratory animals to street vendors after they have finished experimenting on them.

You heard me right.

Instead of properly disposing of infected animals by cremation, as the law requires, they sell them on the side to make a little extra cash. Or, in some cases, a lot of extra cash. One Beijing researcher, now in jail, made a million dollars selling his monkeys and rats on the live animal market, where they eventually wound up in someone’s stomach.

Hmm. I had not heard that theory.  This seems like the Post throwing darts. They don't say it was the Wuhan market that sells lab animals to markets, just that it has been known to happen (with no sources cited for that, notably). That article is from 2020; these newest studies are recent. With the amount of scrutiny this all got over the last couple of years, I'd imagine we'd have heard more if that was a plausible cause for the market in question in Wuhan. 

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

My Allegra theory 

https://www.livescience.com/antihistamines-to-treat-long-covid-pasc

 

[Dezbelief]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/

Not a WaPo subscriber so can't read the article but read a summary:

It's an opinion piece, but that's a little different spin on "it came from a lab" for sure, and definitely makes you think. 

an FYI: I learned that anyone with a .mil or .gov can get a free subscription to the Washington Post.  They apparently used to include .edu, but now they only get a discounted price, not a freebie subscription

There appears to be links in this story by the WaPo.

Edit- my agenda is that I believe the lab in Wuhan is responsible for this virus, not purposely but negligently one way or another. 

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

There appears to be links in this story by the WaPo.

links to what? what are we discussing from 2020 articles? 

 

[Dezbelief]

links to what? what are we discussing from 2020 articles? 

The lab in Wuhan being sloppy and likely being the accidental source of the current pandemic. 

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

The lab in Wuhan being sloppy and likely being the accidental source of the current pandemic. 

Oh, gotcha. Yeah, no doubt it was in question back then. I'd be surprised if there were ever any proof to that end though. I'd guess that anyone who might have been involved in that happening is, ahem, not available for comment. 

 

[Dragons]

What workplace mitigation measures after a confirmed exposure are you guys currently seeing? I work for a small company (4 of us in the office), all vaccinated and some boosted.

One person had an exposure on Saturday. She found out on Monday evening, has been testing every morning and has been wearing a mask in public spaces. Is that about it for expectations until she tests positive or passes 5-7 days of negatives? There seems to be some expectation that she should be wiping down every surface she touches (door handles, toilet seats, etc.). Note that the person complaining has not put on a mask herself, but she is avoiding close contact with the exposed.

 

[Doug B]

What workplace mitigation measures after a confirmed exposure are you guys current seeing?

Everything that the exposed person is doing seems reasonable. At my workplace, the exposed person would be highly encouraged to work from home for a week or so (but we WFH 3 days a week anyway, so it's not a disruption to WFH 5 days straight and skip a week in the office).

All the wiping down of all touched surfaces and such ... that's 2020's advice; no longer applicable. COVID essentially doesn't spread like that. The complaining person needs to keep their own hands washed/sanitized if they have a concern over common surfaces.

 

[Dragons]

Everything that the exposed person is doing seems reasonable. At my workplace, the exposed person would be highly encouraged to work from home for a week or so (but we WFH 3 days a week anyway, so it's not a disruption to WFH 5 days straight and skip a week in the office).

All the wiping down of all touched surfaces and such ... that's 2020's advice; no longer applicable. COVID essentially doesn't spread like that. The complaining person needs to keep their own hands washed/sanitized if they have a concern over common surfaces.

Thank you, I agree with both statements about the wiping of surfaces. There is some history creating some of the histrionics (the now exposed was a big proponent of wiping surfaces throughout most of the pandemic), but I'm pushing to develop a policy to create the proper, current, expectations and cut off the complaints. 

Unfortunately, our owner doesn't think working from home is possible, so that's a tough sell. 

 

[Dezbelief]

What workplace mitigation measures after a confirmed exposure are you guys current seeing? I work for a small company (4 of us in the office), all vaccinated and some boosted.

One person had an exposure on Saturday. She found out on Monday evening, has been testing everyone morning and has been wearing a mask in public spaces. Is that about it for expectations until she tests positive or passes 5-7 days of negatives? There seems to be some expectation that she should be wiping down every surface she touches (door handles, toilet seats, etc.). Note that the person complaining has not put on a mask herself, but she is avoiding close contact with the exposed.

The last time I read the CDC recommendations a vaxed and boosted person should simply mask in public for 5 days following exposure. 

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

RIP, Lab Leak Hypothesis?

The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic:

Nat Geo picked up on that same study, along with another one (claiming 2 separate animal > human jumps):

Debate deepens over Wuhan wet market's role in kickstarting the pandemic

and they float another theory:

For COVID-19, the first infected person could have been a middleman who collected animals from multiple farms and delivered them to markets and warehouses in the city, a common practice in China and Southeast Asia, says Frutos. This person could have then infected some of the vendors at at Huanan and other locations in Wuhan, a theory that is consistent with Gao’s finding that SARS-CoV-2 was present in the environment of multiple markets and associated warehouses in the city. 

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Summary of the White House summit on vaccines. Not mentioned in this post, but our YLE was in attendance too! I expect she'll be making a post of her own soon. 

White House summit sets lofty goals for new Covid vaccines — but largely sidesteps questions of funding  of course they did.

“The vaccines we have are terrific,” he said. “We can do better than terrific.”

Other participants went further. Vaccines delivered as a skin patch — really a collection of microscopic needles “as long as a piece of paper is thick” — could provide immunity that’s stronger than any traditional vaccine injected into a muscle using a syringe.

Vaccines delivered as a nasal mist, other experts argued, could stop Covid transmission altogether, effectively bringing the pandemic to an end.

The tone remained upbeat throughout the event, and discussion often glossed over the enormous scientific challenges involved in the development of next-generation vaccines.

---

Notably, however, the event did not include lawmakers, or any government official with substantial control over federal spending.     

 

[Doug B]

Notably, however, the event did not include lawmakers, or any government official with substantial control over federal spending.     

I would like to think lawmakers from both sides of the aisle could get behind at least the funding of improved vaccines.

 

[Zegras11]

Summary of the White House summit on vaccines. Not mentioned in this post, but our YLE was in attendance too! I expect she'll be making a post of her own soon. 

---

pretty cool to see her at the WH.   We still find it amazing that she grew up three doors down from us when we were rasing our kids.  So glad to be able to follow someone like her through all the crap.

Katie with my daughter at 8th bday party

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I've always suspected SARS-CoV2 arose naturally, but I've never felt a particularly strong stake in either outcome. Obviously, it's very important from a scientific perspective (and unfortunately, from a political perspective as well). But on a personal level, I don't know nearly enough about the science to have an informed opinion on it, so anything I would say about it would simply be a reflection of my own biases. I'm fine waiting until a scientific consensus emerges.

My only pet peeve has been the subset of lab-leak proponents who are incredibly annoying in their certainty. At the beginning of the pandemic, when most experts were saying it started in the wet market, they were conspiratorially whispering that it was from a lab. (I had a coworker at the time who pulled the whole, "C'mon, don't be naive" schtick.) Then last year, when some scientists started saying we should take the lab-leak hypothesis seriously, they acted like it was now a settled question that Xi and Fauci got together and whipped up the virus themselves in a witch's cauldron.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I would like to think lawmakers from both sides of the aisle could get behind at least the funding of improved vaccines.

Welcome, Martian visitor!

 

[Runkle]

My only pet peeve has been the subset of lab-leak proponents who are incredibly annoying in their certainty. At the beginning of the pandemic, when most experts were saying it started in the wet market, they were conspiratorially whispering that it was from a lab. (I had a coworker at the time who pulled the whole, "C'mon, don't be naive" schtick.) Then last year, when some scientists started saying we should take the lab-leak hypothesis seriously, they acted like it was now a settled question that Xi and Fauci got together and whipped up the virus themselves in a witch's cauldron.

What I don't get is why lab-leak people are also so often anti-vax.

It only stands to reason: If China and/or Russia cooked up covid in a lab, they 1) would have developed their own vaccine to protect themselves, and 2) would have expected the US to take forever to develop a vaccine, thereby the release of covid would have damaged the rest of the world while China and Russia were immune. It follows, then, that any unexpectedly fast development of a US vaccine would have hurt this lab-leak operation, therefore, China and Russia would have worked together over facebook and social media to discredit the US vaccine. So if you believe in lab-leak, you should believe that Russian fake news and Chinese disinformation would be all over facebook saying Moderna, Pfizer, J&J, etc are full of microchips, GPS trackers, rat poison, etc. so that their lab-leak plan would be a success.

If you believe in a communist-led lab-leak, you should also believe they would bolster their operation by refuting any cure, allowing the manufactured virus to spread unchecked. If China released a bioweapon, expecting it to take 10 years for the US to counter it, but then the US solved it after 1 year, China's best move would be to convince people not to take the US treatment, extending the efficacy of their bioweapon. China would hope that US citizens, and the military and future recruits, would reject the vaccine. 

Therefore, if you believe in lab-leak, you should trust Moderna found the cure. 

 

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

What I don't get is why lab-leak people are also so often anti-vax.

It only stands to reason: If China and/or Russia cooked up covid in a lab, they 1) would have developed their own vaccine to protect themselves, and 2) would have expected the US to take forever to develop a vaccine, thereby the release of covid would have damaged the rest of the world while China and Russia were immune. It follows, then, that any unexpectedly fast development of a US vaccine would have hurt this lab-leak operation, therefore, China and Russia would have worked together over facebook and social media to discredit the US vaccine. So if you believe in lab-leak, you should believe that Russian fake news and Chinese disinformation would be all over facebook saying Moderna, Pfizer, J&J, etc are full of microchips, GPS trackers, rat poison, etc. so that their lab-leak plan would be a success.

If you believe in a communist-led lab-leak, you should also believe they would bolster their operation by refuting any cure, allowing the manufactured virus to spread unchecked. If China released a bioweapon, expecting it to take 10 years for the US to counter it, but then the US solved it after 1 year, China's best move would be to convince people not to take the US treatment, extending the efficacy of their bioweapon. China would hope that US citizens, and the military and future recruits, would reject the vaccine. 

Therefore, if you believe in lab-leak, you should trust Moderna found the cure. 

 

I don't want to sidetrack this into a political debate, but I will just make one meta-comment: During the Kaepernick kneeling controversy in 2017, I heard a comedian joke, "I can't believe we liberals got football in the divorce."

Sometimes I feel like that's what happened with Covid. We divvied up our assets and liberals got masks, tests and vaccines while conservatives got hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin and monoclonals. I suppose if you dug into all of those things you could find explanations for why people of certain political persuasions would or wouldn't support those interventions, but it almost has this "randomly assigned" feel to it. So maybe that explains your seeming lab-leak/antivax contradiction? 

Also, it seems that somehow Paxlovid has managed to be accepted across the board, so that's an encouraging sign

 

[Dezbelief]

Sometimes I feel like that's what happened with Covid. We divvied up our assets and liberals got masks, tests and vaccines while conservatives got hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin and monoclonals. I suppose if you dug into all of those things you could find explanations for why people of certain political persuasions would or wouldn't support those interventions, but it almost has this "randomly assigned" feel to it. So maybe that explains your seeming lab-leak/antivax contradiction? 

Guess I'm a moderate, I believe in vaxes and lab leaks.

Edit- I just find it too much of a coincidence that a lab with shoddy protocols studying coronaviruses in bats is at the epicenter of an epidemic of a bat evolved coronavirus. Perhaps if China had been transparent from the beginning I could have been convinced otherwise.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Guess I'm a moderate, I believe in vaxes and lab leaks.

Edit- I just find it too much of a coincidence that a lab with shoddy protocols studying coronaviruses in bats is at the epicenter of an epidemic of a bat evolved coronavirus. Perhaps if China had been transparent from the beginning I could have been convinced otherwise.

It's definitely possible, and I wouldn't be shocked if they came out tomorrow with irrefutable proof that it was from a lab. And I certainly don't think believing in it marks you as some sort of paranoid conspiracist. It's just funny how, as with so many other things, it seems to have broken down somewhat -- though, as your example demonstrates, not exclusively -- along tribal lines

 

[nirad3]

Guess I'm a moderate, I believe in vaxes and lab leaks.

Edit- I just find it too much of a coincidence that a lab with shoddy protocols studying coronaviruses in bats is at the epicenter of an epidemic of a bat evolved coronavirus. Perhaps if China had been transparent from the beginning I could have been convinced otherwise.

I'm right there with ya.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

RESEARCH TEAM MAKES COVID ANTIBODIES IN HEN EGGS

“In addition to a low cost to produce these antibodies in hens, they can be updated very fast by using updated antigens to hyperimmunize hens, allowing protection against current variant strains.”

Birds produce a type of antibody called IgY, comparable to IgG in humans and other mammals. IgY does not cause allergy or set off immune reactions when injected into humans. IgY appears both in birds’ serum and in their eggs. As a hen lays about 300 eggs a year, you can get a lot of IgY, Gallardo says.

Gallardo and colleagues immunized hens with two doses of three different vaccines based on the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein or receptor binding domain. They measured antibodies in blood samples from the hens and in egg yolks three and six weeks after the last immunization.

Purified antibodies were tested for their ability to block coronavirus from infecting human cells at the National Center for Biodefense and Infectious Diseases at George Mason University in Virginia.

Both eggs and sera from immunized hens contained antibodies that recognized SARS-CoV-2. Antibodies from serum were more effective in neutralizing the virus, probably because there is more antibody in blood overall, Gallardo says.

...

The team hopes to deploy these antibodies in a preventative treatment such as a spray, that could be used by people at high risk of exposure to coronavirus.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Perhaps if China had been transparent from the beginning I could have been convinced otherwise.

Yep. I don't trust the Chinese government to tell the truth. That is not a left-wing or right-wing position. That is a position supported by decades of evidence. 

That is not to say I believe the lab leak theory, but I don't dismiss it out of hand like most other non-mainstream theories. 

 

[Doug B]

NOTE: Recent figures in the Worldometers graphs get big adjustments as much as two weeks after they first drop. Accordingly, I've waited ten days to let the last-week Monday & Tuesday (July 18-19) numbers settle in. They will rise some more by next week's update, but it should only be by a relatively small amount.

...

Updating numbers to see where things have been standing recently from a top-of-the-mountain view. All figures below are 7-day averages from Worldometers U.S. graphs here. In the United States: 

CASES ON THU 07/28/2022
Thu 01/13/2022 - 825,688  <--OMICRON SURGE 2022 HIGH
Tue 02/01/2022 - 424,816
Thu 02/17/2022 - 116,942
Mon 02/28/2022 -   62,205
Mon 03/14/2022 -   32,909
Sat   04/02/2022 -   27,599 <--2022 LOW
Mon 04/18/2022 -   40,862
Mon 05/02/2022 -   63,232
Mon 05/09/2022 -   81,436
Mon 05/16/2022 - 100,158
Mon 05/23/2022 - 110,853
Sun 05/31/2022 - 106,712
Mon 06/06/2022 - 106,796
Mon 06/13/2022 - 107,529
Mon 06/20/2022 -   99,120
Mon 06/27/2022 - 113,090
Mon 07/04/2022 - 115,202
Mon 07/11/2022 - 120,482
Wed 07/13/2022 - 131,002
Thu 07/14/2022 - 131,992  <-- SPRING/SUMMER SURGE HIGH
Fri 07/15/2022 - 131,944
Sun 07/17/2022 - 131,542
Tue 07/19/2022 - 130,776
Wed 07/20/2022 - 131,268
Fri 07/22/2022 - 130,579
Mon 07/25/2022 - 125,045  <--provisional count

DEATHS ON THU 07/28/2022
Sun  01/29/2022 - 2,756  <--OMICRON SURGE 2022 HIGH
Thu  02/17/2022 - 2,196
Mon 02/28/2022 - 1,750
Mon 03/14/2022 - 1,137
Mon 03/28/2022 - 635
Mon 04/11/2022 - 487
Mon 05/02/2022 - 338
Mon 05/09/2022 - 300
Thu 05/12/2022   - 287  <--2022 LOW
Mon 05/23/2022 - 325
Mon 06/06/2022 - 341
Tue 06/07/2022  - 370
Mon 06/13/2022 - 362
Mon 06/20/2022 - 311
Mon 06/27/2022 - 350
Mon 07/04/2022 - 360
Mon 07/11/2022 - 383  (370 on Thu 07/21/2022)
Tue 07/12/2022 - 406  (387 on Thu 07/21/2022)
Wed 07/13/2022 - 414  (393 on Thu 07/21/2022) <--SPRING/SUMMER SURGE HIGH
Mon 07/18/2022 - 395  (317 on Thu 07/21/2022)
Mon 07/25/2022 - 356  <--provisional count

...

CASES: 7-day average of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. peaked at 825,688 on 1/13/2022, and was provisionally 130,776 on 7/19/2022. The U.S. had been on a steady case-count rise from June 20th, 2022 through mid-July. The 7-day case numbers since have barely scraped 132,000 and settled right below that number. IMHO, it's really good news that the numbers from the week of July 18th haven't already soared past 140,000 - 150,000. As I wrote last week, I'm remaining confident that this is not going to be comparable to the winter 2021-22 Omicron spike. The current rise is still looking more like a hill, and a shallow one at that (knocking on wood).

DEATHS: The 7-day average had dropped for 79 consecutive days from 2,756 on 1/29/2022 to 350 on Tue 4/19/2022. With adjustments, the 7/18/2022 number rose to 395.  The 7-day average deaths on 7/13/2022 remains the spring/summer high, now adjusted to 414. As adjustments come in, it's looking like these numbers will settle in around the mid-400s before long. Still think this number has to get back below 300 and stay there for an extended period, but the path to that status is not clear at present.

...

For comparison: Low-water marks in the U.S. from summer 2021, 7-day averages after the initial thrust of vaccinations and before summer 2021's Delta surge.

CASES: 12,197 on 6/21/2021
DEATHS: 245 on 7/8/2021

 

[Doug B]

The weeks of July 4th and July 11th saw a quick jump up from ~110,000 to ~130,000 7-day-avg cases/day. If the trend was continuing upwards, even mildly, the July 18th-19th 7-day case counts should already be over 130,000 right now and then bump up to 140,000-145,000 before Thursday or Friday of this week.

With 6-7 days gone by to allow for most of the adjusting that will be take place, the numbers from 7/18 and 7/19 are stalled at ~129,000. Some more will be added over the next few days, yes, and 7/18 -19 should end up in the low 130,000s. But that wouldn't a continuation of the rate increase seen between 7/4 and 7/13-14 -- it would be a flattening. Exactly what Dr. Jetelina is describing.

OK ... the bolded has held up so far. Big adjustments to last week's numbers are possible, but at this point unlikely.

Not sure if this is the crest of a mild statistical hump or not. I would be kind of surprised if at least another 20,000 - 30,000 worth of 7-day case-count rise wasn't still to come. Would love to be wrong about that, though.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

What I don't get is why lab-leak people are also so often anti-vax.

It only stands to reason: If China and/or Russia cooked up covid in a lab, they [snip]

There are two different versions of the lab leak story.

The first is the one that you're talking about, where SARS-CoV-2 was intentionally created as some sort of bioweapon or something.  To be frank, I find this theory completely implausible and a little nutty.  My reasoning here is that C19 would be a ludicrously ineffective bioweapon, so it probably isn't one.  Who designs a bioweapon that kills off the old and sick while leaving able-bodied young males untouched?  That's stupid.  

The second version is the one that I subscribe to, which is that SARS-CoV-2 is just a naturally-occurring bat virus that the bat researchers at WIV were studying for research purposes.  Maybe it benefited from some gain-of-function research (maybe -- EcoHealth Alliance submitted a grant proposal a couple of years before the pandemic to create exactly this type of coronavirus), but it wasn't intentionally designed to do anything other than help some researchers better understand how coronaviruses work.  I find this story super plausible, because we know with 100% certainty that the folks at WIV did this sort of thing all the time, and we know their lab safety protocols were spotty/poor, and we know that lab leaks of this type have happened in other labs elsewhere.  This isn't a conspiracy theory or anything.  It's just a story about human error.  

It shouldn't be surprising that people who hold to the first version of the theory, the bioweapon theory, also hold nutty views on other subjects, such as vaccines.  I would not expect to see a similar correlation with folks who accept the second version.

 

[culdeus]

What I don't get is why lab-leak people are also so often anti-vax.

It only stands to reason: If China and/or Russia cooked up covid in a lab, they 1) would have developed their own vaccine to protect themselves, and 2) would have expected the US to take forever to develop a vaccine, thereby the release of covid would have damaged the rest of the world while China and Russia were immune. It follows, then, that any unexpectedly fast development of a US vaccine would have hurt this lab-leak operation, therefore, China and Russia would have worked together over facebook and social media to discredit the US vaccine. So if you believe in lab-leak, you should believe that Russian fake news and Chinese disinformation would be all over facebook saying Moderna, Pfizer, J&J, etc are full of microchips, GPS trackers, rat poison, etc. so that their lab-leak plan would be a success.

If you believe in a communist-led lab-leak, you should also believe they would bolster their operation by refuting any cure, allowing the manufactured virus to spread unchecked. If China released a bioweapon, expecting it to take 10 years for the US to counter it, but then the US solved it after 1 year, China's best move would be to convince people not to take the US treatment, extending the efficacy of their bioweapon. China would hope that US citizens, and the military and future recruits, would reject the vaccine. 

Therefore, if you believe in lab-leak, you should trust Moderna found the cure. 

 

What was the Tom Clancy book that had this plot?  

 

[[icon]]

There are two different versions of the lab leak story.

The first is the one that you're talking about, where SARS-CoV-2 was intentionally created as some sort of bioweapon or something.  To be frank, I find this theory completely implausible and a little nutty.  My reasoning here is that C19 would be a ludicrously ineffective bioweapon, so it probably isn't one.  Who designs a bioweapon that kills off the old and sick while leaving able-bodied young males untouched?  That's stupid.  

The second version is the one that I subscribe to, which is that SARS-CoV-2 is just a naturally-occurring bat virus that the bat researchers at WIV were studying for research purposes.  Maybe it benefited from some gain-of-function research (maybe -- EcoHealth Alliance submitted a grant proposal a couple of years before the pandemic to create exactly this type of coronavirus), but it wasn't intentionally designed to do anything other than help some researchers better understand how coronaviruses work.  I find this story super plausible, because we know with 100% certainty that the folks at WIV did this sort of thing all the time, and we know their lab safety protocols were spotty/poor, and we know that lab leaks of this type have happened in other labs elsewhere.  This isn't a conspiracy theory or anything.  It's just a story about human error.  

It shouldn't be surprising that people who hold to the first version of the theory, the bioweapon theory, also hold nutty views on other subjects, such as vaccines.  I would not expect to see a similar correlation with folks who accept the second version.

This. 

Also I've found that the conspiracy crowd has almost without exception been the lower-intelligence crowd. They go through life with the realization that most folks they encounter day to day are smarter than them. 

Then they find this community of folks who have SECRET KNOWLEDGE that THE MAN DOESN'T WANT YOU TO KNOW. This is a world where THEY can be the "smart" person... the one in the know. They like that feeling. They embrace it fully.  A built in defense mechanism of "Those facts are lies" and "They WANT you to believe that" gives them a built in goalie against any sort of logical rebuttal. 

So we've got this small army of subpar intellect individuals newly emboldened with a feeling they've never really had before... being the person with the answers. They may be the wrong answers, but they've got that logic goalie to shield them from reality.

There are few places that better illustrated this during the pandemic, than r/HermanCainAward (https://www.reddit.com/r/HermanCainAward/) on reddit . 

 

[Senor Schmutzig]

What's the general consensus on sticking to one COVID vaccine brand or mixing them up?

I'm travelling internationally in a couple of week and from at least one country I am going (France), there is a requirement that your last booster must be within  270 days. I'll be right around that mark when I'm there so I was planning on getting a 2nd booster prior to going so there aren't any questions. 

Shot #1, #2 and Booster were all Pfizer but I remember reading somewhere (maybe Dr. Scott Gottlieb?) that mixing up boosters is a good idea to enhance overall immunity. I was googling around but didn't really find anything definitive on the topic. Does anyone recollect reading anything recently with evidence either way? 

 

[Dragons]

What's the general consensus on sticking to one COVID vaccine brand or mixing them up?

I'm travelling internationally in a couple of week and from at least one country I am going (France), there is a requirement that your last booster must be within  270 days. I'll be right around that mark when I'm there so I was planning on getting a 2nd booster prior to going so there aren't any questions. 

Shot #1, #2 and Booster were all Pfizer but I remember reading somewhere (maybe Dr. Scott Gottlieb?) that mixing up boosters is a good idea to enhance overall immunity. I was googling around but didn't really find anything definitive on the topic. Does anyone recollect reading anything recently with evidence either way? 

From what I remember, yes mix them up. I don't know if it's conclusive, but it certainly can't hurt. I didn't with my first booster, but am planning when I go for my second (Moderna first, for me).

 

[Doug B]

... I remember reading somewhere (maybe Dr. Scott Gottlieb?) that mixing up boosters is a good idea to enhance overall immunity. I was googling around but didn't really find anything definitive on the topic. Does anyone recollect reading anything recently with evidence either way? 

The CDC took a look at this in 2021 and concluded that a mixed booster can elicit a stronger immune response than another dose of the same vaccine. It's not a night-and-day difference, though, and it's something that they don't suggest going way out of your way to do.

Now, as a practical matter, many Americans live in areas where they can make a few phone calls and likely find a convenient place dispensing the vaccine of their choice. Given that ... why not chase that little bit of a bump you'll get from mixing?

...

Take care when Googling for vaccine-mixing research. You'll find seemingly-definitive articles like this:

Covid-19: Mix and match booster vaccination approach offers best protection, study reports (BMJ.com, 4/25/2022)

Besides the fact that it's just one study of the dozens needed to start building consensus, read down and check out the specific vaccines they studied:

• Researchers from Chile examined the country’s national covid-19 vaccination programme, including over four million people who received two doses of the CoronaVac (Sinovac) vaccine followed by a booster dose between February and November 2021. Around 47% received the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine as a booster, while about 49% received the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine and just under 5% received the CoronaVac booster.
  

So ... not particularly relevant for Americans looking for information specific to mixing Moderna and Pfizer.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

What's the general consensus on sticking to one COVID vaccine brand or mixing them up?

I'm travelling internationally in a couple of week and from at least one country I am going (France), there is a requirement that your last booster must be within  270 days. I'll be right around that mark when I'm there so I was planning on getting a 2nd booster prior to going so there aren't any questions. 

Shot #1, #2 and Booster were all Pfizer but I remember reading somewhere (maybe Dr. Scott Gottlieb?) that mixing up boosters is a good idea to enhance overall immunity. I was googling around but didn't really find anything definitive on the topic. Does anyone recollect reading anything recently with evidence either way? 

I got my second booster a few weeks ago, and made the deliberate decision to get Moderna after three Pfizer shots, for the reasons Doug outlines above. Ideally, you would be able to mix an mRNA and non-mRNA shot, but unless your original was J&J, that's not really possible at this point, since all of the boosters are mRNA (Pfizer/Moderna). Maybe once this Novovax shot hits the market.

In any event, I think it's mostly a "nice to have" rather than a "must have". If you have a choice, can't hurt (and might help) to switch them up. But if I were at a point where I felt like I needed a booster but the other brand wasn't available, I wouldn't hold off solely for that purpose.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Some of you may remember that last month I posted in here about spending a week in the hospital with a pulmonary embolism, and how it's a mystery where my clots came from since I have none of the obvious risk factors (smoking, sedentary lifestyle, recent long-haul flight). Well, we still don't know, but there's an interesting difference of opinion among my various doctors. My pulmonologist thinks he's found a genetic cause based on a couple of my test results (for the medical nerds out there, MTHFR and homocysteine). Meanwhile, a family friend who's been advising us and is a very well-respected doctor in the area thinks it's due to an undiagnosed Covid infection. I did test negative on a Covid nucleocapsid test recently, which would seem to indicate I have never had it, but this doctor thinks that was a false negative.

Earlier today I met with my hematologist. She's younger and not as experienced as the other two doctors, but this is obviously her area of expertise. She doesn't buy the genetic explanation, and while she's not as definitive as our family friend about the Covid explanation, she did mention that, for whatever reason, over the last couple years she's been seeing a lot more unexplained blood clots. (She did say that it could just as easily be an indirect cause, such as more people living sedentary lifestyles during the pandemic).

This is a mostly academic debate, since whatever the cause ends up being, it is unlikely to change my course of treatment (blood thinners). But it makes me wonder how many more of these unexplained mysteries that may or may not be connected to Covid are out there.

Oh, and in case anyone's wondering, I'm fully recovered from the embolism and shouldn't face any long-term health risks as a result of it 

 

[Pip's Invitation]

I have still not had COVID to my knowledge. Nor have my wife and son. We aren’t in crowds regularly and still wear masks in crowded indoor spaces. 

However, we have been to Disney World (a few weeks before the first Omicron surge) and I have been to two conferences for work (at one of which almost no one wore a mask), so it’s not like we’ve been living as 2020-style hermits the whole time.

Congestion and coughing today. Maybe my number has come up. Or maybe not. 

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Boosters for under 50 apparently scrapped in favor of sooner availability of new formula this fall. Hopefully that is just open to everyone. 
 

Debating on getting my kids their booster prior to school though. They didn’t get their third shot as they had covid in May. 

 

[Scoresman]

Some of you may remember that last month I posted in here about spending a week in the hospital with a pulmonary embolism, and how it's a mystery where my clots came from since I have none of the obvious risk factors (smoking, sedentary lifestyle, recent long-haul flight). Well, we still don't know, but there's an interesting difference of opinion among my various doctors. My pulmonologist thinks he's found a genetic cause based on a couple of my test results (for the medical nerds out there, MTHFR and homocysteine). Meanwhile, a family friend who's been advising us and is a very well-respected doctor in the area thinks it's due to an undiagnosed Covid infection. I did test negative on a Covid nucleocapsid test recently, which would seem to indicate I have never had it, but this doctor thinks that was a false negative.

Earlier today I met with my hematologist. She's younger and not as experienced as the other two doctors, but this is obviously her area of expertise. She doesn't buy the genetic explanation, and while she's not as definitive as our family friend about the Covid explanation, she did mention that, for whatever reason, over the last couple years she's been seeing a lot more unexplained blood clots. (She did say that it could just as easily be an indirect cause, such as more people living sedentary lifestyles during the pandemic).

This is a mostly academic debate, since whatever the cause ends up being, it is unlikely to change my course of treatment (blood thinners). But it makes me wonder how many more of these unexplained mysteries that may or may not be connected to Covid are out there.

Oh, and in case anyone's wondering, I'm fully recovered from the embolism and shouldn't face any long-term health risks as a result of it 

Did they mention antiphospholipid antibody disorder?  My wife was diagnosed with that years ago after unexplained clots.  But her condition is chronic (blood thinners for life) and it sounds like yours is resolved.  

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Did they mention antiphospholipid antibody disorder?  My wife was diagnosed with that years ago after unexplained clots.  But her condition is chronic (blood thinners for life) and it sounds like yours is resolved.  

I don't recall hearing about that. I'll ask. Hard to keep track of all the extremely rare conditions they're testing for. I imagine this is something like what a pregnant woman goes through with prenatal testing.

I should have been clearer on something: The pulmonary embolism (as well as a DVT in my hip) have been broken up/removed, but I still have clots in my legs. So when I said I don't face any long-term threat, I meant as long as I stay on blood thinners. It's possible that at some point they'll determine the clots were caused by a one-time event -- such as a Covid infection -- and I'll be able to go off the meds. But I'm operating under the assumption that, like your wife, I'll be on them for life.

 

[Scoresman]

I don't recall hearing about that. I'll ask. Hard to keep track of all the extremely rare conditions they're testing for. I imagine this is something like what a pregnant woman goes through with prenatal testing.

I should have been clearer on something: The pulmonary embolism (as well as a DVT in my hip) have been broken up/removed, but I still have clots in my legs. So when I said I don't face any long-term threat, I meant as long as I stay on blood thinners. It's possible that at some point they'll determine the clots were caused by a one-time event -- such as a Covid infection -- and I'll be able to go off the meds. But I'm operating under the assumption that, like your wife, I'll be on them for life.

I think they can diagnose it with a blood test so its likely they did that and maybe ruled it out.  You're lucky they caught it before the clots settled in your lungs.  My wife had to have probably the craziest surgery known to man to remove the clots from her lungs because thinners weren't breaking them up.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Congestion and coughing today. Maybe my number has come up. Or maybe not. 

Positive. It was a good run.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Positive. It was a good run.

Pouring out a 40 for you.

Here's to mild symptoms and a quick recovery

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I think they can diagnose it with a blood test so its likely they did that and maybe ruled it out.  You're lucky they caught it before the clots settled in your lungs.  My wife had to have probably the craziest surgery known to man to remove the clots from her lungs because thinners weren't breaking them up.

Yes, I've been told repeatedly that it was very fortunate I got to the hospital when I did. I also have a PFO (hole between the two chambers of my heart), so I'm very fortunate the clot didn't go to my brain and cause a stroke.

Was your wife able to make a full recovery? Does she have any lingering problems?