*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)

[Phil Elliott]

Channel surfing this weekend and ran a cross the ISU Four Continents Figure Skating Championships in Seoul. Everyone had masks on including the fans, helpers, judges,camera men....well, everyone except the skaters.

 

[msommer]

Global cases steadily increasing: https://i.imgur.com/CmBiHIE.png

However, the upside is much of that appears to be Japanese Cruise cases (now at 160+). There doesn't appear to be any other countries with pockets of growth.  
 

This DOES make me wonder about last week's reports of India with thousands of suspected cases. I wonder if it's an inability to test properly yet? 

I thought about that Kerala issue as well, but then I read yday that the Japanese have had difficulty testing everyone on the cruiseship (didn't mention why), so they are only testing people who have fever. Maybe the testing "kit" isn't available in abundance (which would be really bad news for India)

 

[beer 30]

Either China are absolutely lying through their teeth (in what would be a truly a despicable lie that puts millions at risk), or their extreme quarantine procedures are working very well.  Their official numbers have been falling the last 3-5 days.

One thing to consider, yesterday there was a post in this thread from twitter that showed China changed the definition of "confirmed" to doctor the numbers.

Credit to @[icon] for the original post: https://twitter.com/lwcalex/status/1226840055869632512?s=20

 

[beer 30]

Mr. Ham's worse nightmare

 

[culdeus]

One thing to consider, yesterday there was a post in this thread from twitter that showed China changed the definition of "confirmed" to doctor the numbers.

Credit to @[icon] for the original post: https://twitter.com/lwcalex/status/1226840055869632512?s=20

I can see where they might have a justification in doing this.  If 85% (?) don't even require you to to go the hospital then there's not a super defined reason to count them.  They need to plan for cases they have to have beds, and cases that go to the ICU.  

If you watch how they are managing the hot spots there appear to be a triage hospital, then you either recover or go.....somewhere else.  Whether that's euthanasia or ICU is anyone's guess.  

Counting those that get it and get IT is wise.  

Put it this way, do we really count people that get the flu but recover at home? No.

This isn't really my opinion on this, just want to put out an alternative non conspiracy type rationale.

 

[TheIronSheik]

They've given it a name:  COVID-19.

Lame!!!!!

That sounds like a droid in Star Wars.  Or a planet in Star Trek.  

 

[beer 30]

They've given it a name:  COVID-19.

Lame!!!!!

That sounds like a droid in Star Wars.  Or a planet in Star Trek.  

I saw Wuhan Virus a lot this past weekend, was kinda hoping they go with that. Agree, COVID-19 is lame.

 

[Doug B]

Models show that there should be cases we’re not seeing ...

A model is only as good as the inputs.

 

[TheIronSheik]

A model is only as good as the inputs.

GIGO

 

[zoobird]

I saw Wuhan Virus a lot this past weekend, was kinda hoping they go with that. Agree, COVID-19 is lame.

I've been just going with "The Wuhan"...kind of like "The Flu".

 

[beer 30]

I've been just going with "The Wuhan"...kind of like "The Flu".

Maybe Sandler can make a movie, "You Don't Mess With the Wuhan"

 

[Henry Ford]

This may have already been discussed - scientists are reporting that the virus may be able to live in water droplets on door handles/etc for up to nine days outside the human body?  That seems bad.

 

[[scooter]]

Models show that there should be cases we’re not seeing ...

A model is only as good as the inputs.

That explains Paulina Porizkova's career decline.

 

[TheIronSheik]

This may have already been discussed - scientists are reporting that the virus may be able to live in water droplets on door handles/etc for up to nine days outside the human body?  That seems bad.

Yeah,  I saw in Newsweek where they are saying they think it can be transmitted by pipes.  They think people got it in an apartment building by the pipes.

 

[Henry Ford]

Yeah,  I saw in Newsweek where they are saying they think it can be transmitted by pipes.  They think people got it in an apartment building by the pipes.

Yet another reason I'm glad I'm a homeowner.

 

[-fish-]

That explains Paulina Porizkova's career decline.

:golfclap:

 

[culdeus]

Yeah,  I saw in Newsweek where they are saying they think it can be transmitted by pipes.  They think people got it in an apartment building by the pipes.

I'm not following this.  

Are we its in the river stage?

 

[Henry Ford]

I'm not following this.  

Are we its in the river stage?

During a press conference Tuesday, officials from Hong Kong's Center for Health Protection said the two infected residents were separated by 10 floors and the decision to partially evacuate the public housing estate in the city's Tsing Yi area was made after the discovery of an unsealed pipe in the bathroom of the lower apartment, raising fears about how the newly identified virus may have spread between the two units.

 

[Redwes25]

This may have already been discussed - scientists are reporting that the virus may be able to live in water droplets on door handles/etc for up to nine days outside the human body?  That seems bad.

That is worse then Measles if true, which is basically the most contagious virus out there.  

 

[Doug B]

This may have already been discussed - scientists are reporting that the virus may be able to live in water droplets on door handles/etc for up to nine days outside the human body?  That seems bad.

Scientists not quite reporting this -- the current Wuhan coronavirus was not included in the study:

A new analysis looking at data from different types of coronavirus has shown that many strains can live on surfaces such as glass, plastic or metal, for up to nine days.

The work published yesterday in The Journal of Hospital Infection looked at 22 historical studies on different types of coronavirus, such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronaviruses.

Link to the study's data (scroll down to Results). I note that the length of time the tested viruses are viable seems to correlate with the overall viral load (viral titer) of their sample. Also, the viruses seem to last much longer in conditions colder than room temperature (~22.5 C / 72 F). So my question would be how well their testing simulates the kinds of "samples" infected people leave on surfaces in real-life conditions by coughing, touching surfaces, etc.?

 

[Doug B]

Yeah,  I saw in Newsweek where they are saying they think it can be transmitted by pipes.  They think people got it in an apartment building by the pipes.

Not quite this either. Generally, the more startling the news, the less likely it is to stand up to close inspection.

Whoever said it was spread via pipes is not even quoted in the article. Newsweek is going with "... stoking fears [it] could be spread through pipes." That's not even a source.

Meanwhile, later in the article:

The residents were relocated as a precautionary measure, AFP reported officials saying. Wong Ka-hing of the Centre for Health Protection told journalists: "We are not sure what was the exact route of transmission.

"It could still be through the usual method of droplets or contact."

 

[Jobber]

I wonder if the pipe they're referring to is the sewer vent (fart pipe) or an actual water line. Since the virus can transmit via fecal matter, perhaps the fantastic Chinese build quality on the vent pipes (not well sealed probably) lets the gas escape into apartments. 

 

[Doug B]

That is worse then Measles if true, which is basically the most contagious virus out there.  

In the study cited (see my post above), there were two coronaviruses that can last longer than nine days on steel at cool to cold temperatures ... in laboratory conditions.

Keep in mind that the COVID Wuhan virus was not tested in this study.

 

[Henry Ford]

In the study cited (see my post above), there were two coronaviruses that can last longer than nine days on steel at cool to cold temperatures ... in laboratory conditions.

Keep in mind that the COVID Wuhan virus was not tested in this study.

True, however the infection rate has been significantly higher than general coronaviruses, correct?  Doesn't that indicate a likely higher out-of-body lifespan?

 

[Doug B]

True, however the infection rate has been significantly higher than general coronaviruses, correct?  Doesn't that indicate a likely higher out-of-body lifespan?

Not yet known for sure. The incubation time is not yet locked down.

For a preliminary infection rate, see this article and scroll down to "How contagious is the coronavirus?" to see a comparison of rates between the Wuhan virus (1 carrier infects an average of 3 people) vs. influenza (1 to 4) and mumps (1 to 7).

EDIT: More info on infection rates from 1/30/2020, putting the Wuhan virus at about 1 to 2.2. I am having trouble finding right-now information on infection rate.

 

[Henry Ford]

Not yet known for sure. The incubation time is not yet locked down.

For a preliminary infection rate, see this article and scroll down to "How contagious is the coronavirus?" to see a comparison of rates between the Wuhan virus (1 carrier infects an average of 3 people) vs. influenza (1 to 4) and mumps (1 to 7).

EDIT: More info on infection rates from 1/30/2020, putting the Wuhan virus at about 1 to 2.2. I am having trouble finding right-now information on infection rate.

As always, "yes, but..." those infection rates assume that the numbers we're getting from China are correct, don't they?

 

[Doug B]

As always, "yes, but..." those infection rates assume that the numbers we're getting from China are correct, don't they?

That ventures into the realm of speculation.

I do happen to believe the number of infected is significantly higher than reported because a strong majority of the infected never get much in the way of symptoms. I do not believe that China is hiding a huge microbiological disaster.

 

[munga30]

I went on Amazon and bought a 25 pound bucket of pinto beans, a 25 pound bucket of rice, a 50 gallon rainwater collection barrel that I could fill with a hose. Based on a previous recommendation, bought the 80 gallon BOB that could be placed in the tub, and a propane cooking stove. I’ll buy a propane tank next time I’m near Home Depot. Have about 25 pounds of flour I use to make pasta with, and enough canned veggies and other pantry items that my family wouldn’t have to leave the house if necessary for at least 6-8 weeks if properly rationed, even if utilities were out.

I’m not going to go more overboard than that. Cost about $200 for all of the stuff I just bought, and if it proves to be unnecessary, I can water the lawn with the water, use the beans and rice over time, and have a portable stove (can also use butane) for camping. 

Feel better that family could hunker down in the unlikely event, and that I don’t have to go panic buying anything even if things become evidently serious. 

Couple weeks ago, I also dropped $170 stocking up on general medical supplies: Masks, warm mister, decongestants, and vapor products to keep lungs clear. 

Edit: I also live in Texas, and spring isn’t too far off. When at Home Depot, I’ll also invest in seeds. Have a nice garden in the backyard that currently isn’t planted. Would be a good idea to change that this season. Will grow lots of greenbeans and peas and other veggies that could go well with rice and beans.

Here, do something truly self sustaining with your prepping paranoia.

Wicking tub

 

[Henry Ford]

That ventures into the realm of speculation.

I do happen to believe the number of infected is significantly higher than reported because a strong majority of the infected never get much in the way of symptoms. I do not believe that China is hiding a huge microbiological disaster.

There's no real question China massively under-reported SARS.  And the actual numbers on SARS were less than we currently have from China on this virus.

 

[beer 30]

Generally, the more startling the news, the less likely it is to stand up to close inspection.

There is some wild stuff being posted so yea, I'd caution & verify most everything you read out there.

I went on Amazon and bought a 25 pound bucket of pinto beans, a 25 pound bucket of rice, a 50 gallon rainwater collection barrel that I could fill with a hose. Based on a previous recommendation, bought the 80 gallon BOB that could be placed in the tub, and a propane cooking stove. I’ll buy a propane tank next time I’m near Home Depot. Have about 25 pounds of flour I use to make pasta with, and enough canned veggies and other pantry items that my family wouldn’t have to leave the house if necessary for at least 6-8 weeks if properly rationed, even if utilities were out.

I’m not going to go more overboard than that. Cost about $200 for all of the stuff I just bought, and if it proves to be unnecessary, I can water the lawn with the water, use the beans and rice over time, and have a portable stove (can also use butane) for camping. 

Feel better that family could hunker down in the unlikely event, and that I don’t have to go panic buying anything even if things become evidently serious. 

Couple weeks ago, I also dropped $170 stocking up on general medical supplies: Masks, warm mister, decongestants, and vapor products to keep lungs clear. 

Edit: I also live in Texas, and spring isn’t too far off. When at Home Depot, I’ll also invest in seeds. Have a nice garden in the backyard that currently isn’t planted. Would be a good idea to change that this season. Will grow lots of greenbeans and peas and other veggies that could go well with rice and beans.

I think you've hopped over the line but if you sleep better

 

[Doug B]

There's no real question China massively under-reported SARS.  And the actual numbers on SARS were less than we currently have from China on this virus.

You're right about the SARS under-reporting, and some of it was intentional. However, that ordered under-counting was uncovered early on and rectified fairly quickly (as these things go).

 

[culdeus]

I went on Amazon and bought a 25 pound bucket of pinto beans, a 25 pound bucket of rice, a 50 gallon rainwater collection barrel that I could fill with a hose. Based on a previous recommendation, bought the 80 gallon BOB that could be placed in the tub, and a propane cooking stove. I’ll buy a propane tank next time I’m near Home Depot. Have about 25 pounds of flour I use to make pasta with, and enough canned veggies and other pantry items that my family wouldn’t have to leave the house if necessary for at least 6-8 weeks if properly rationed, even if utilities were out.

I’m not going to go more overboard than that. Cost about $200 for all of the stuff I just bought, and if it proves to be unnecessary, I can water the lawn with the water, use the beans and rice over time, and have a portable stove (can also use butane) for camping. 

Feel better that family could hunker down in the unlikely event, and that I don’t have to go panic buying anything even if things become evidently serious. 

Couple weeks ago, I also dropped $170 stocking up on general medical supplies: Masks, warm mister, decongestants, and vapor products to keep lungs clear. 

Edit: I also live in Texas, and spring isn’t too far off. When at Home Depot, I’ll also invest in seeds. Have a nice garden in the backyard that currently isn’t planted. Would be a good idea to change that this season. Will grow lots of greenbeans and peas and other veggies that could go well with rice and beans.

What you doing about beer?

 

[Buttonhook]

Googling how to plant peyote. 

Good idea, start trippin' balls...  You wont feel the pain when guys that have bigger guns and more ammo than you decide they like your little plantation.

 

[TheIronSheik]

I just got back from Disney World, and honestly I’m kind of rooting for COVID-19 to reach global pandemic levels. 

 

[TheIronSheik]

Good idea, start trippin' balls...  You wont feel the pain when guys that have bigger guns and more ammo than you decide they like your little plantation.

Not quite. I live in a school zone where guns are illegal. 

 

[Redwes25]

I went on Amazon and bought a 25 pound bucket of pinto beans, a 25 pound bucket of rice, a 50 gallon rainwater collection barrel that I could fill with a hose. Based on a previous recommendation, bought the 80 gallon BOB that could be placed in the tub, and a propane cooking stove. I’ll buy a propane tank next time I’m near Home Depot. Have about 25 pounds of flour I use to make pasta with, and enough canned veggies and other pantry items that my family wouldn’t have to leave the house if necessary for at least 6-8 weeks if properly rationed, even if utilities were out.

I’m not going to go more overboard than that. Cost about $200 for all of the stuff I just bought, and if it proves to be unnecessary, I can water the lawn with the water, use the beans and rice over time, and have a portable stove (can also use butane) for camping. 

Feel better that family could hunker down in the unlikely event, and that I don’t have to go panic buying anything even if things become evidently serious. 

Couple weeks ago, I also dropped $170 stocking up on general medical supplies: Masks, warm mister, decongestants, and vapor products to keep lungs clear. 

Edit: I also live in Texas, and spring isn’t too far off. When at Home Depot, I’ll also invest in seeds. Have a nice garden in the backyard that currently isn’t planted. Would be a good idea to change that this season. Will grow lots of greenbeans and peas and other veggies that could go well with rice and beans.

If there is a total break down of society where no heat, water or electricity exists I am just going to kiss my ### goodbye.  I could probably weather two weeks on food in my home which is probably better then most people where I live but would freeze death given it is February and cold in the NE.   

 

[ChiefD]

Probably have a couple weeks of food in the house as we speak. Have about a cord of firewood already split, a huge oak tree, and a saw.

Always have beer on hand and backup whiskey in the house. Have a couple of cases of bottled water already and I have buckets to catch rain if necessary. Also could fill my tub as well.

Have no solution for my kids screen time though. That's what might kill us. 

 

[Capella]

Some of y’all need to take a deep breath. Wow. 

 

[dickey moe]

They're beginning to blame the pangolins now.

 

[TheIronSheik]

I have a gun and I’m hoping my neighbors spent money on food and not weapons. Not living in Texas has helped my odds. 

 

[Otis]

My wife thinks I’m

You don’t say. 

 

[fissure man]

China changing the definition of "Confirmed" as a rare blatant/public attempt to cook the books. 

https://twitter.com/lwcalex/status/1226840055869632512?s=20

Now if you test positive but aren't symptomatic, you're no longer "confirmed"   This obviously further obfuscates any chance at identifying the true scope of this outbreak. 
 

Check out the big brain on Brad! 

 

[fissure man]

Some of y’all need to take a deep breath. Wow. 

Yeah, I feel like I missed a few updates. 

 

[cosjobs]

Some dank stuff on Twitter if you look.  It's so hard to tell what's real and fake not gonna bother posting it.   Just imagining how quick we would go into meltdown if the whole US just said stay inside for three weeks. K bye.  

Netflix, Hulu, Sling and Amazon stocks should go through the roof.

Also food delivery (as if you can trust someone make $6/hr to handle you food safely).

 

[shader]

Ham, no offense, but this is the definition of conspiracy theory. Look, I can totally get behind China lying. That’s a country that is built on propaganda.  But if all the other countries are lying too...then I mean what’s the point of even tracking numbers.  At some point we have to take some numbers at face value.

Personally my strategy has been to go to https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

I have no idea what that site is, but they seem to do a great job of keeping stats updated by country.

I’ve been tracking all non-China infections. 277 4 days ago, 394 today. Those are the numbers I’ll be watching.  

2/7 - 277

2/10 - 394

2/11 - 430

 

[culdeus]

2/7 - 277

2/10 - 394

2/11 - 430

Should track boat and not boat tbh.

 

[shader]

Should track boat and not boat tbh.

Yeah the boat plays into this for sure. But in a pandemic I’d assume the biggest explosions are going to happen when it gets to non-locked down areas.

 

[culdeus]

Yeah the boat plays into this for sure. But in a pandemic I’d assume the biggest explosions are going to happen when it gets to non-locked down areas.

I mean it's had opportunities off the boat and this hasn't happened like it did on the boat

edit to acknowledge that for sure wuhan got rekt but once it hit an area that was prepped it has been different.  So far it's ok.  Maybe it stays that way

 

[Don Hutson]

https://www.vox.com/2020/2/11/21132732/coronavirus-cruise-ship-quarantine-japan

Could the quarantine lead to more coronavirus infections?

Doctors and health researchers are increasingly skeptical of this quarantine for exactly that reason. “They’ve basically trapped a bunch of people in a large container with [the] virus,” said University of Toronto epidemiology professor David Fisman, over email. “So [I’m] assuming ‘quarantine’ is generating active transmission.”

For the same reason, Michael Mina, another epidemiologist at Harvard University, called the quarantine unethical on Twitter, "The decision to keep the passengers & crew on the ship is no longer ethical and is wholly inappropriate. 10 crew are infected and crew cannot self quarantine, and room together. Clearly this has transmitted among them placing all at unacceptable risk."

Their concern is driven by the details emerging from the ship, which paint an alarming portrait. According to a must-read New York Times report, as of February 10, Japanese officials had only tested 439 of the 3,700 passengers onboard for the coronavirus, citing shortages of testing supplies. This means that at least a fraction of the remaining thousands onboard may have the virus and not know it.

Among those who’ve tested positive recently are 10 crew members. “And according to employees, the infected crew members identified on Sunday had been eating in the mess hall alongside their co-workers,” the Times reports.

Given the risk of further spread among the crew, and to the passengers they’re trying to serve, the quarantine on the Diamond Princess increasingly seems to pose an “unacceptable risk,” as Mina said.

 

[Doug B]

Don Hutson, I’m glad you posted that. I’ve been wondering when professional opinion was going to turn on the cruise ship quarantine.