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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (21 Viewers)

Local High School sent out a mass email to parents basically stating that with Spring Break starting Monday be prepared for the kids to be out an additional 14 days after the Spring Break holiday.   Guess the school doesn't want to take a chance that "Billy" gets on a cruise ship or goes to a level 2 or 3 country bringing back the death.

 
Found a one-way flight from LA to CT for $75 saturday. Seriously debating. Are they really considering CA/WA domestic travel ban?

 
Best case scenario 6-12 weeks. Worst case 6 months?
Worst case: it dies over the summer, we assume we have it licked and act stupid and then six months later, another more deadly pandemic roars back (worst case, not expected) (but see Spanish flu)

 
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Day 4 of social isolation here at home. Been trying to get family used to eating rice and beans, but we’re still stocked on meats, veg and cheeses. Good practice to get the family used to eating food for calories and nutrients, and not taste. So far, rice goes over fine, but I’m the only one who will eat pinto beans. Have to work on that one. 

Tonight was smoked baby backs and grilled asparagus. We really have yet to test scarcity. 
Make a soup with some of it. You can freeze soup too.

 
Day 4 of social isolation here at home. Been trying to get family used to eating rice and beans, but we’re still stocked on meats, veg and cheeses. Good practice to get the family used to eating food for calories and nutrients, and not taste. So far, rice goes over fine, but I’m the only one who will eat pinto beans. Have to work on that one. 

Tonight was smoked baby backs and grilled asparagus. We really have yet to test scarcity. 
Seems a bit overboard, but why do you need to train your family? I assume if the only food you have is rice and beans it will suddenly seem a lot more palatable. 

 
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Buddy of mine who’s a wicked smaht stats type said he thinks peak freak out will be in the next few weeks. Predicts once healthy people get it and find out its bad but not terrible people will be a little less fearful. 
 

I own 2 businesses. Already gaming out how long I can keep my 9 employees paid (or semi-paid) in the case of significantly decreased sales (we can B/E at a 20% reduction in revenue @ current staffing levels for a month or two). 

 
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High school Baseball trip to Florida cancelled.   Tournament director just sent out the notice.   Hotels are not wanting to refund the parent's money.   Good times. 
Which hotel?  I cancelled four hotel reservations today.  None of those, however, were made as non-refundable reservations.  I also received an email from IHG (Holiday Inn) saying they were waiving all cancellation fees for existing and new bookings for all IHG hotels globally.

 
From and ER doctor. No political objective 

Friends and family, I just wanted to say thank you again for all the support. Media is a new thing for me, and I'm learning along the way. I just want to express some concerns. First, as you all have seen tonight from Trump, the NBA, NCAA, University closings, and Tom Hanks even, that things are getting more serious in America.  Those of us living and breathing this pandemic 24 hours a day have foreseen these events for weeks, so we are not surprised, and it is going to get worse. Today is one of the inflection points we will look back on because this is historical time. You will remember this pandemic for the rest of your lives. Expect all sports and the Olympics to cancel or postpone. Expect graduations to be canceled. Expect businesses to close. I am preparing for those things. I am not an alarmist, and I am not a sunshine-pumper. I am an academic guided by the evidence and an oath-sworne physician. Everyone needs to take this situation very seriously. 

First, on the medical side of things, a lot of older, sicker folks are going to get very ill. Many will die despite our best efforts. This is a fact. It has started, and the virus will continue to spread. Stay home if you can and do not overwhelm the healthcare system. 

Second, there are serious societal effects that you all are starting to see. These will accelerate dramatically over the next week, and I think American society will be very different very soon. Temporarily. Again, the mortality rate of this virus is probably around 1-2 percent, as the oft shared Fox News interview I provided highlights (based on the Chinese data).  Please be careful if you only get your news there, I think what they are doing is dangerous. I will not return to the channel again because the physicians on their staff are irresponsible, to say the least. However, in addition to writing, I will be on CNN a lot more over the coming months.  Half of you will never watch it due to political beliefs. I get it. There are much better sources for medical insight and information than cable news anyway. 

But if you do watch, I promise that I will never lie to you, I will avoid politics whenever possible, and I will do my best to keep you all safe. If you are not a CNN watcher, I totally understand. If you are looking for a reliable physician source, please listen to every word that comes out of Dr. Fauci's mouth. I do. But please be wary of what President Trump is telling you, the measures he is taking during this pandemic, and the untruths about antivirals and vaccines coming. They are not. Physicians know this. Shutting down European travel will not keep you safe, the virus is already spreading in your state. 

Instead, prepare to hunker down for a few weeks, but do not hoard. Bring your parents home from the nursing home for a bit if you can, things are going to get very bad there. I apologize if this post gives some of you anxiety, but I don't care because you need to hear it from someone you trust. This is not the flu, there is no reason to believe it will go away soon, and a very large number of vulnerable people will probably die around the world. You need to be prepared that this will change your lifestyle. Schools will close. You will be off work. Try not to be scared for your health, be prepared and preventive. From a societal standpoint, things are going to get rocky for a while, and you need to be prepared so you are not caught off guard. 

Your life is important to me and I want to educate you on how to stay safe through this. Do not minimize this event, and do not panic. Listen to physicians, not politicians and pundits.

 
Oh sure, but given the other option of dismissive people, I prefer the people who are concerned. 
I find this to be the weirdest part.

We are dismissive of 99% of all other infectious diseases that are and have been a part of our daily lives.

Weird that a cold/flu symptom illness is the one we cower in fear at.

 
Which hotel?  I cancelled four hotel reservations today.  None of those, however, were made as non-refundable reservations.  I also received an email from IHG (Holiday Inn) saying they were waiving all cancellation fees for existing and new bookings for all IHG hotels globally.
Was in Pensacola.   Wife just said that the hotel is going to give back money.   Guess parent and future lost trip revenue pressure got to them?

 
I was getting pretty tired of all the individual posts about "my kid's lacrosse tournament was postponed" or whatever, but I just received word that my favorite winery's tasting room is closed because they can't accommodate social distancing.  Now I understand.

 
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From and ER doctor. No political objective 

Friends and family, I just wanted to say thank you again for all the support. Media is a new thing for me, and I'm learning along the way. I just want to express some concerns. First, as you all have seen tonight from Trump, the NBA, NCAA, University closings, and Tom Hanks even, that things are getting more serious in America.  Those of us living and breathing this pandemic 24 hours a day have foreseen these events for weeks, so we are not surprised, and it is going to get worse. Today is one of the inflection points we will look back on because this is historical time. You will remember this pandemic for the rest of your lives. Expect all sports and the Olympics to cancel or postpone. Expect graduations to be canceled. Expect businesses to close. I am preparing for those things. I am not an alarmist, and I am not a sunshine-pumper. I am an academic guided by the evidence and an oath-sworne physician. Everyone needs to take this situation very seriously. 

First, on the medical side of things, a lot of older, sicker folks are going to get very ill. Many will die despite our best efforts. This is a fact. It has started, and the virus will continue to spread. Stay home if you can and do not overwhelm the healthcare system. 

Second, there are serious societal effects that you all are starting to see. These will accelerate dramatically over the next week, and I think American society will be very different very soon. Temporarily. Again, the mortality rate of this virus is probably around 1-2 percent, as the oft shared Fox News interview I provided highlights (based on the Chinese data).  Please be careful if you only get your news there, I think what they are doing is dangerous. I will not return to the channel again because the physicians on their staff are irresponsible, to say the least. However, in addition to writing, I will be on CNN a lot more over the coming months.  Half of you will never watch it due to political beliefs. I get it. There are much better sources for medical insight and information than cable news anyway. 

But if you do watch, I promise that I will never lie to you, I will avoid politics whenever possible, and I will do my best to keep you all safe. If you are not a CNN watcher, I totally understand. If you are looking for a reliable physician source, please listen to every word that comes out of Dr. Fauci's mouth. I do. But please be wary of what President Trump is telling you, the measures he is taking during this pandemic, and the untruths about antivirals and vaccines coming. They are not. Physicians know this. Shutting down European travel will not keep you safe, the virus is already spreading in your state. 

Instead, prepare to hunker down for a few weeks, but do not hoard. Bring your parents home from the nursing home for a bit if you can, things are going to get very bad there. I apologize if this post gives some of you anxiety, but I don't care because you need to hear it from someone you trust. This is not the flu, there is no reason to believe it will go away soon, and a very large number of vulnerable people will probably die around the world. You need to be prepared that this will change your lifestyle. Schools will close. You will be off work. Try not to be scared for your health, be prepared and preventive. From a societal standpoint, things are going to get rocky for a while, and you need to be prepared so you are not caught off guard. 

Your life is important to me and I want to educate you on how to stay safe through this. Do not minimize this event, and do not panic. Listen to physicians, not politicians and pundits.
Which doctor?

 
I find this to be the weirdest part.

We are dismissive of 99% of all other infectious diseases that are and have been a part of our daily lives.

Weird that a cold/flu symptom illness is the one we cower in fear at.
It's because we've been conditioned to be dismissive our whole lives. Watch that HistoryCh doc. This is getting pear shaped right in front of our eyes. I feel great sipping Woodfords and listening to Wilco right now but #### is getting real.

 
Day 4 of social isolation here at home. Been trying to get family used to eating rice and beans, but we’re still stocked on meats, veg and cheeses. Good practice to get the family used to eating food for calories and nutrients, and not taste. So far, rice goes over fine, but I’m the only one who will eat pinto beans. Have to work on that one. 

Tonight was smoked baby backs and grilled asparagus. We really have yet to test scarcity. 
Try NICARAGUAN GALLO PINTO ( RICE AND BEANS) Or try a Cuban flavor with rice and QUICK AND DELICIOSO CUBAN STYLE BLACK BEANS or, my favorite, an Indian flavor, basmati rice and  Spicy Vegan Lentil Dahl. The rest of the world has been eating flavorful rice and beans for centuries.

 
GOOD NEWS / BAD NEWS

GOOD NEWS: High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19

BAD NEWS: "high temperature and high relative humidity reduce the transmission of COVID-19 with a significance level of 1% and 5%, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0266 and 0.0106, respectively"

Meaning: Increasing the temp from 69 to 95 will reduce the Ro by 0.39. A 30% increase in RH will add .3 bringing the Ro reduction to about 0.7. 

Not ineffective but it takes a big change to make a measurable difference. 

 
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Day 4 of social isolation here at home. Been trying to get family used to eating rice and beans, but we’re still stocked on meats, veg and cheeses. Good practice to get the family used to eating food for calories and nutrients, and not taste. So far, rice goes over fine, but I’m the only one who will eat pinto beans. Have to work on that one. 

Tonight was smoked baby backs and grilled asparagus. We really have yet to test scarcity. 
I only see every 6th or 7th page of this thread and don't know the background to most posts. But every once in a while, I come across one like this and just think... wow.

 
Buddy of mine who’s a wicked smaht stats type said he thinks peak freak out will be in the next few weeks. Predicts once healthy people get it and find out its bad but not terrible people will be a little less fearful. 
 

I own 2 businesses. Already gaming out how long I can keep my 9 employees paid (or semi-paid) in the case of significantly decreased sales (we can B/E at a 20% reduction in revenue @ current staffing levels for a month or two). 
If that is the case, why is China still locking down cities hundreds of miles from Wuhan with only a handful of cases. This is what is concerning to me.

:source: commissioner of one of my dynasty leagues, detroit native that now lives in Panzhihua.

 
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Leave it to my state to come up with an alternative to the sports viewing conundrum. My son's high school basketball team is still alive in their state tournament. With everyplace bailing out on just about any sporting event, we thought for sure the rest of the tournament would be cancelled. They didn't cancel, nor did they opt to play without any spectators. Instead, their work around is to give each player 4 tickets, which are intended for family use only (not other students). With 15 kids on each team, that would mean a max of 120 people in attendance. At least that is the plan, but they still have 2 days to back out.

 
Dear Diary,

We got hit today with the Corona at work. Sick person was at work, shutting down for deep cleaning next 2 days - even for those who couldn’t WFH. Complete closure. They say back on Monday for people who can’t work from home. We’ll see.

Just opened our best bottle of Stag’s Leap. Gonna let it breath for an hour while the wife and I make a good dinner with the food she has been collecting over past week at my urging due to my pals freaking me out on the FFA.

Best wishes to you all. Be safe.

-The General 

 
GOOD NEWS / BAD NEWS

GOOD NEWS: High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19

BAD NEWS: "high temperature and high relative humidity reduce the transmission of COVID-19 with a significance level of 1% and 5%, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0266 and 0.0106, respectively"

Meaning: Increasing the temp from 69 to 95 will reduce the Ro by 0.39. A 30% increase in RH will add .3 bringing the Ro reduction to about 0.7. 

Not ineffective but it takes a big change to make a measurable difference. 
That’s assuming it’s a linear relationship.  In most cases, these types of associations are far more complicated than just being linear.  

 
The deliciousness of Nicaraguan gallo pinto cannot be overstated.  Thanks for linking all of this.
Here's a spice blend I use in tons of stuff.  It will ramp up the flavor in a pot o' beans, and rice too.

Deep Undertones (mix all in a spice mill) - from this guy

  • 1 T cumin seeds
  • 2 t course salt
  • 1.75 t instant coffee 
  • 1.5 t dried basil (prefereably Thai basil)
  • 1.25 t dry mustard
  • 1 t whole black peppercorns
  • 0.75 t dried sage
  • 0.5 t paprika
  • 0.25 t coriander seeds
This guy's recipes tend to lean heavy on the cumin.  Halve the 1 T if you think it fits your taste.

 
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Silver lining?  How many of these jobs that are going to temporary WFH will become permanent WFH or part-time WFH?  I guess it will depend on the productivity numbers.  I'm sure some will take advantage of the situation.

 
Silver lining?  How many of these jobs that are going to temporary WFH will become permanent WFH or part-time WFH?  I guess it will depend on the productivity numbers.  I'm sure some will take advantage of the situation.
I would love this!

 
Got my first personal story of someone who was exposed to a known coronavirus case, got sick, and was refused testing (in TX) last week. They went to the ER, got a test for flu (negative), were turned down for not meeting testing criteria, and were sent home with some drugs. They were not instructed to quarantine or anything else, but did so on their own. 

 
It's good news, but my understanding is that there are many tests that have been developed privately, however, the FDA/CDC is requiring that they be approved and there's a multi-week process for that. I think it was covered in that NYT article that talked about the Seattle flu researchers.

 
I find this to be the weirdest part.

We are dismissive of 99% of all other infectious diseases that are and have been a part of our daily lives.

Weird that a cold/flu symptom illness is the one we cower in fear at.
The ER doc post right above your post explains it well.

 
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Got my first personal story of someone who was exposed to a known coronavirus case, got sick, and was refused testing (in TX) last week. They went to the ER, got a test for flu (negative), were turned down for not meeting testing criteria, and were sent home with some drugs. They were not instructed to quarantine or anything else, but did so on their own. 
Where at in Texas?

 

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