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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (22 Viewers)

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Just read that the 14 evacuees that have been identified with coronavirus had not been so flagged before the flight and those that had been were left in Japan so that means 54 Americans from Diamond Princess so far have been confirmed with Covid-19

I'll try to find and English link for that

ETA Best I could find

 
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bradyfan said:
I really appreciate your efforts, however someone is already being paid to do it.  :D
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Yep.  I'll still update post because it's nice and easy to see how the numbers are moving every day.  But I'll do it every morning as it appears they update it at 4AM Eastern for each day. 

 
culdeus said:
This is fascinating.

So far only one teenager has died and then only people below age 30 that have died are medical staff.

If you aren't a doctor or working with cases directly, and under the age of 50 your odds of dying of this so far is 0.15%

Mortality expounds virtually unchecked out to age 85.

edit, 0.15 not .0015
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I don’t get it.  Either we believe China or we don’t.  If we do, fine.  That’s an ok position. 

If we don’t, than we can’t make detailed statistical analysis of false numbers.

 
shader said:
I don’t get it.  Either we believe China or we don’t.  If we do, fine.  That’s an ok position. 

If we don’t, than we can’t make detailed statistical analysis of false numbers.
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I choose to believe they are presenting a sample of the real data.  So whatever they have might be .33x reality.  Therefore it would nearly extrapolate to ROW

 
bradyfan said:
"As it turned out, that was very ineffective in preventing spread on the ship," Fauci told the USA TODAY Editorial Board and reporters Monday. Every hour, another four or five people were being infected.

"The quarantine process failed," Fauci said. "I'd like to sugarcoat it and try to be diplomatic about it, but it failed. People were getting infected on that ship. Something went awry in the process of the quarantining on that ship. I don't know what it was, but a lot of people got infected on that ship."
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One thing I read is that people will still allowed to walk around the deck.  They were advised to stay 6 feet from other guests.  So it wasn't a complete quarantine.  Also, the staff delivering stuff to them could have had the virus.  If they were going to quarantine the ship, they should have tested everyone instead of waiting for a fever.

 
culdeus said:
I choose to believe they are presenting a sample of the real data.  So whatever they have might be .33x reality.  Therefore it would nearly extrapolate to ROW
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No idea if you’re right or not.  Truth will be out in the next 3-4 weeks as it’s out of China now.

 
shader said:
No idea if you’re right or not.  Truth will be out in the next 3-4 weeks as it’s out of China now.
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If that mortality rate is right we are looking at 14-25 million dead Americans. (Twitter, don't check my math). 

I'm hearing from my people that workers are pouring back into Beijing.  Buckle up for a wild next two weeks. 

 
shader said:
I don’t get it.  Either we believe China or we don’t.  If we do, fine.  That’s an ok position. 

If we don’t, than we can’t make detailed statistical analysis of false numbers.
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I thought that's what this whole thread is about.  Made up numbers, numbers from Chinese gov, real numbers plugged into crazy made up formulas.  This thing has been going on since December.  At this rate the sun burning out will get us before this virus.

 
Doug B said:
Bad tweet. The author divides deaths into some number of recoveries/discharges and makes up his own "mortality rate". Absolutely not.
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Agreed the mortality rate is bunk, but the chart showing infectivity curve vs SARS is valid and eye opening. 

 
Doug B said:
shader said:
So would dividing the recovered by the dead be a good way of calculating the mortality rate?
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That's an overcalculation due to the discarding of both low-symptom unrecovered cases and undiagnosed cases.

Also, a true mortality rate requires a time component -- over one year is common. With COVID-19 so new, mortality rate calculations necessarily will be fuzzy and location-specific (e.g. Wuhan itself, Hubei, China, other countries, the world, etc.).
Click to expand...

 
Mr. Ham said:
You, who has been a voice of reason (thank you) sort of prove my point. There does seem to be something different about Wuhan, and it seems plausible that a dodgy vaccine out of the Wuhan Lab did cause a high virulent strain that mutated down and explains the relatively mild strain in the wild.
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I think I misled you a bit -- what I should have made clear about the SARS vaccine failures during animal testing was that the animals' immune systems over-reacted once the test vaccines were introduced, harming and even killing the subjects. No new strain of SARS was created.

That's what I had meant to communicate as a no-evidence hypothesis -- that some people in Wuhan were administered a not-ready-for-primetime vaccine in response to early cases in December, and that these patients' own immune systems over-reacted the same way and cause a localized spike in infirmities and deaths (caveat -- speculation only). I didn't mean to speculate that a bad vaccine was administered to the Wuhan locals and then THAT caused a new coronavirus strain to form via mutation.

 
Mr. Ham said:
  • We can manage and mitigate severe cases an bring the death rate below 2% of overall cases, and hopefully below that in children and the healthy 
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Way too early to start celebrating, obviously ... but the preliminary numbers from cases outside of China (or even just outside of Hubei itself) are looking promising.

 
Some facts here: 

The head of the CDC has said in no uncertain terms that they are unable to stop it, and quarantine measures are purely an attempt to slow the virus. He expects it to be spreading in the wild by later this year or early next year at the latest. 

A LOOK AT TRANSMISSION - VIA R0:
- Season Flu: 1.28 (NIH)
- 1919 Pandemic: 1.8 (NIH)
- CoVID-19: Ranges from 1.4 to 2.4 (CDC) up to 3.28 (this international team)

NUMBER OF INFECTED:
- Seasonal Flu - Generally infects approx 8% of population (CDC)
- COVID19: Can we expect more than 8% given the high R0..I don't know? Anyone? 

NEEDING MEDICAL CARE:
Seasonal Flu (thus far): 30 MM Infected (Already 9% of population) /  250k Hospitalized (0.8%)  / 25k Dead (0.08%) (CDC Estimates thus far)
COVID-19: WHO Estimates infected developing pneumonia 15% of the time / 3-5% needing intensive care / 2% Fatalities. WHO

ASSUMING 10% OF US POPULATION INFECTED:
NOTE: Assumes seasonal flu continues through end of flu season, and lets assume COVID-19 with it's 2-3x worse R0 infects ONLY the same number of folks:
Seasonal Flu: 264k Hospitalized / 27k Dead
COVID-19: 5 Million developing Pneumonia / 1.3 Million needing Intensive care under Critical Condition (Bottled O2 / Ventilators) / 660k Fatalities

Obviously there are a ####load of assumptions there. Intensive Care / Fatalities SHOULD drop here. There's far from a guarantee it will hit 8-10% of the population here. We could develop drugs/processes that interfere with transmission or virulence, Warm weather could slow the virus (unknown), etc.  

I would be SHOCKED if we hit those numbers, but they're sobering to see, and are based on assumptions that are fairly "known" from viable sources. If we even get half of those I envision hospitals being overrun, with significant numbers of military quarantine centers popping up around the country providing substandard care due to shortage of resources (medical professionals, equipment like ventilators, etc). 

Also, how do we plan to better protect our healthcare workers? Looks like a LOT of them were infected in China. Is it an issue of quality of PPE? Training on it's use? Do we need full on biohazard suits? 

Kinda rambling, but wanted to get some numbers and thoughts down in one place. This was done at work while multitasking so I'm sure there are some errors somewhere in there. :lol:  Feel free to shoot holes 
 

 
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Doug B said:
Way too early to start celebrating, obviously ... but the preliminary numbers from cases outside of China (or even just outside of Hubei itself) are looking promising.
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My theory on that is the "bad" cases are more "recoverable" when a healthcare system is under reasonable load and resources like beds, doctors, ventilators are available. 

It's when the virus transmission goes vertical that resources are spread too thinly and mortality rate spikes along with it. 

I think that is a MAJOR component on why mortality is much lower in countries who might have 10, 20...30 serious cases, vs thousands. 

 
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Doug B said:
Way too early to start celebrating, obviously ... but the preliminary numbers from cases outside of China (or even just outside of Hubei itself) are looking promising.
Click to expand...
I'm all for this thing going away, but we are up to 999 cases outside of China and the number is growing.  I don't see how anything looks promising yet.  Most of these cases are new patients (as just 11 days ago there were only 270ish cases), so I don't think we can draw any reasonable mortality rates yet.

 
adonis said:
The thing that concerns me is how many of the younger doctors treating the patients have died.  These guys are likely to be in good health, and get the best care possible, yet several high profile folks have died.

I don't trust any of the numbers out of China.
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This is explainable.  I have to find the study/support to this, but young people are not only less likely to die but less likely to contract it in the first place.  Doctors being in the presence of the virus more are limited in their capacity to avoid contraction.  

I'm searching now for this with respect to SARS, where the same thing tended to happen (outsized effect on medical team vs. same age gen pop).  If someone has the opportunity to search this would be nice.

 
culdeus said:
This is explainable.  I have to find the study/support to this, but young people are not only less likely to die but less likely to contract it in the first place.  Doctors being in the presence of the virus more are limited in their capacity to avoid contraction.  

I'm searching now for this with respect to SARS, where the same thing tended to happen (outsized effect on medical team vs. same age gen pop).  If someone has the opportunity to search this would be nice.
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I'd be reassured if this could be explained better.

I'm not surprised they contracted it...but I"m surprised that both of them were relatively young 51 and the other guy was younger I think (34)...and both died after likely receiving the best medical care available.  Perhaps the younger guy, whistleblower, was subjected to some backlash that punished or prevented him from getting good medical care until he was too far gone...nowhere near panic or extreme concern, but I seriously distrust the official numbers coming out of China with respect to the virus.

 
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shader said:
I'm all for this thing going away, but we are up to 999 cases outside of China and the number is growing.  I don't see how anything looks promising yet.  Most of these cases are new patients (as just 11 days ago there were only 270ish cases), so I don't think we can draw any reasonable mortality rates yet.
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What I meant by "looking promising" was, specifically, the mortality rate outside of China to date. Mortality rate was what Mr. Ham brought up in his post I quoted upthread.

And I can see this is a matter of perspective and expectations: going from 270 to ~1,000 cases outside of China in 11 days ... to me, that is good news because that degree of spread is much less than what was going on in Wuhan in late December - early January. Plus, IMHO you can also kick out 400+ cases due to the artificial "overspread" from the quarantine conditions on the Diamond Princess.

I worry very little about raw number of infections. I worry instead about infirmity rate (% of patients requiring medical intervention) and mortality rate of those infected.

 
Doug B said:
What I meant by "looking promising" was, specifically, the mortality rate outside of China to date. Mortality rate was what Mr. Ham brought up in his post I quoted upthread.

And I can see this is a matter of perspective and expectations: going from 270 to ~1,000 cases outside of China in 11 days ... to me, that is good news because that degree of spread is much less than what was going on in Wuhan in late December - early January. Plus, IMHO you can also kick out 400+ cases due to the artificial "overspread" from the quarantine conditions on the Diamond Princess.

I worry very little about raw number of infections. I worry instead about infirmity rate (% of patients requiring medical intervention) and mortality rate of those infected.
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I hope the mortality rate stays down and I suspect the next few weeks will be crucial for that data point, as there are about 800 people outside of China that currently have the virus.

 
Coronavirus Update: 346 Americans Emerge From Quarantine At California Military Bases (NPR)

Some 346 Americans who were evacuated from Wuhan, China, amid the deadly coronavirus outbreak emerged from their quarantine at two military bases in California on Tuesday, U.S. officials say.

The group includes 180 Americans who have been living under a mandatory quarantine order at Travis Air Force Base, roughly 40 miles southwest of Sacramento, and 166 U.S. citizens who have been living at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar near San Diego.

"One person from the MCAS Miramar group who is confirmed to have COVID-19 remains under care at a local hospital," the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a statement sent to NPR.

All of the other U.S. evacuees "have been medically cleared and CDC officials have lifted their quarantine orders," said Jason McDonald, a CDC press officer.
Click to expand...


This took place just a few hours ago. These Americans were in Wuhan itself during the initial outbreak, and so presumably much more at risk than the general American public.

Following these 346 Americans over the next few weeks will be telling. Specifically, I am curious to see if any of these people end up providing evidence for 20-something day incubation periods.

 
Doug B said:
This took place just a few hours ago. These Americans were in Wuhan itself during the initial outbreak, and so presumably much more at risk than the general American public.

Following these 346 Americans over the next few weeks will be telling. Specifically, I am curious to see if any of these people end up providing evidence for 20-something day incubation periods.
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:goodposting:

 
Pre-print (not yet peer-reviewed) addressing the "virus is man-made" theories. Unfortunately, much of the content is technical and not written or presented for the layman. Skip down to the "Theories of SARS-CoV-2 origins" section about halfway down:

The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2

It is improbable that SARS-CoV-2 emerged through laboratory manipulation of an existing SARS-related coronavirus. As noted above, the RBD of SARS-CoV-2 is optimized for human ACE2 receptor binding with an efficient binding solution different to that which would have been predicted. Further, if genetic manipulation had been performed, one would expect that one of the several reverse genetic systems available for betacoronaviruses would have been used. However, this is not the case as the genetic data shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not derived from any previously used virus backbone.17
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This peer-reviewed paper (NCBI - NIH, Nov 9, 2015) was cited in line after the words "previously used virus backbone". Of interest is the abstract which I have spoiler-boxed for length:

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)-CoV underscores the threat of cross-species transmission events leading to outbreaks in humans. Here we examine the disease potential of a SARS-like virus, SHC014-CoV, which is currently circulating in Chinese horseshoe bat populations. Using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system, we generated and characterized a chimeric virus expressing the spike of bat coronavirus SHC014 in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone. The results indicate that group 2b viruses encoding the SHC014 spike in a wild-type backbone can efficiently use multiple orthologs of the SARS receptor human angiotensin converting enzyme II (ACE2), replicate efficiently in primary human airway cells and achieve in vitro titers equivalent to epidemic strains of SARS-CoV. Additionally, in vivo experiments demonstrate replication of the chimeric virus in mouse lung with notable pathogenesis. Evaluation of available SARS-based immune-therapeutic and prophylactic modalities revealed poor efficacy; both monoclonal antibody and vaccine approaches failed to neutralize and protect from infection with CoVs using the novel spike protein. On the basis of these findings, we synthetically re-derived an infectious full-length SHC014 recombinant virus and demonstrate robust viral replication both in vitro and in vivo.

Our work suggests a potential risk of SARS-CoV re-emergence from viruses currently circulating in bat populations.
 
Coronavirus death rate in Wuhan may reflect "severe" pressure on health care system, official says (CNN, scroll down to find article)

Numbers suggesting death rates from coronavirus may be higher inside Wuhan and lower elsewhere may reflect "severe" pressure on the health care system there, Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization's Health Emergencies Programme, told reporters Tuesday.

Ryan was responding to a report published Monday by scientists with the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, showing that patient outcomes in Hubei province are a key driver of the 2.3% case fatality rate they calculated. In Hubei, that number is 2.9%; in other Chinese provinces, that number is 0.4%.

The upside, Ryan added, is that "the lessons that have been learned in Hubei and Wuhan are being applied elsewhere."

Those lessons include predicting who's most at risk, getting people into critical care early, and ensuring medical teams are well trained in advanced critical care techniques such as ventilation.

"I think the system in China, for example, has got much better at prioritizing those more likely be severely ill," said Ryan, who maintained that the case fatality rate can be misleading without proper context.

"You have a huge bias at the beginning of an outbreak because what you find are the really sick people coming forward," Ryan said, adding that death rates are likely to drop "probably because of better and better interventions over time, but also because we're finding more mild cases."
Click to expand...

 
Doug B said:
Pre-print (not yet peer-reviewed) addressing the "virus is man-made" theories. Unfortunately, much of the content is technical and not written or presented for the layman. Skip down to the "Theories of SARS-CoV-2 origins" section about halfway down:

This peer-reviewed paper (NCBI - NIH, Nov 9, 2015) was cited in line after the words "previously used virus backbone". Of interest is the abstract which I have spoiler-boxed for length:

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)-CoV underscores the threat of cross-species transmission events leading to outbreaks in humans. Here we examine the disease potential of a SARS-like virus, SHC014-CoV, which is currently circulating in Chinese horseshoe bat populations. Using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system, we generated and characterized a chimeric virus expressing the spike of bat coronavirus SHC014 in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone. The results indicate that group 2b viruses encoding the SHC014 spike in a wild-type backbone can efficiently use multiple orthologs of the SARS receptor human angiotensin converting enzyme II (ACE2), replicate efficiently in primary human airway cells and achieve in vitro titers equivalent to epidemic strains of SARS-CoV. Additionally, in vivo experiments demonstrate replication of the chimeric virus in mouse lung with notable pathogenesis. Evaluation of available SARS-based immune-therapeutic and prophylactic modalities revealed poor efficacy; both monoclonal antibody and vaccine approaches failed to neutralize and protect from infection with CoVs using the novel spike protein. On the basis of these findings, we synthetically re-derived an infectious full-length SHC014 recombinant virus and demonstrate robust viral replication both in vitro and in vivo.

Our work suggests a potential risk of SARS-CoV re-emergence from viruses currently circulating in bat populations.
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Appreciate the spoiler tags.  I want to see how this thing ends in real time.  Don't want anyone spoiling the ending for me. 

 
Also, looking at the Johns Hopkins site, it shows Chicago having 2 confirmed and 2 recovered. Are those the same people or were there 4 in total?

 
jamny said:
For those that have recovered, what is the average time span between confirmed and recovered?
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Not an answer to your question ... but out of Japan's first 24 cases**, 20 have already recovered. I am trying to find out when their first case was identified.

**50 more cases have since been identified in Japan, including eight today.

 
Aside from China and the cruise ship Diamond Princess docked off of Yokohoma, here are the rest-of-the-world totals to date:

(15 new cases today)
457 total cases Feb 18, 2020
(minus 160 patients recovered to date)
297 total active cases Feb 18, 2020

20 seriously/critically ill patients
5 deaths

...

To derive these numbers, I turned the chart here into an Excel sheet, then excluded the first two rows.

...

Same data with all of East Asia removed (Nepal's one recovered case left in):

(0 new cases today)
100 total cases Feb 18, 2020
(minus 52 patients recovered to date)
48 total active cases Feb 18, 2020

3 seriously/critically ill patients
1 death

That one death was a Chinese vacationer in France who contracted the virus at home before traveling.

 
Doug B said:
Not an answer to your question ... but out of Japan's first 24 cases**, 20 have already recovered. I am trying to find out when their first case was identified.
Click to expand...
OK, here we go.

Japan's first case was identified January 15th, a patient who had recently traveled to Wuhan, China. This patient first reported a fever on January 3rd and was reported to have recovered on January 8th. That means COVID-19 wasn't identified in this patient until a week after he recovered -- perhaps antibodies or viral remnants were found in his blood stream.

Well, that's not perfect information about time between confirmed and recovered, but it's a start. Keep in mind that 80% of COVID-19 patients only get mild symptoms. That might make the confirmations trend late as many infected people never get tested or only get tested after several days of weak symptoms.

 
shader said:
Testing out some additional information

Non-China Reported Cases

2/7 - 277

2/10 - 394

2/11 - 430

2/12 - 490

2/14 - 525

2/15 - 684

2/16 - 695

2/17 - 893 Reported Cases - (454 on Diamond Princess) - 135 recovered - 36 serious/critical - 5 dead 
Click to expand...
Non-China Reported Cases

2/7 - 277

2/10 - 394

2/11 - 430

2/12 - 490

2/14 - 525

2/15 - 684

2/16 - 695

2/17 - 893 Reported Cases - (454 on Diamond Princess) - 135 recovered - 36 serious/critical - 5 dead 

2/18 - 1,014 reported cases (542 on Diamond Princess) - 152 recovered - 39 serious/critical - 5 dead

 
Mr. Ham said:
Exactly, that’s a trend that favors this diminishing over time. The variants that kill quickly end up snuffed out with their hosts, while the ones this linger survive. 
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That’s not entirely accurate. If the virus replicates enough to spread to other hosts before the original one dies, it’s done its job. Only if the virus killed the host so quickly it hindered its own propagation, or it was 100% fatal, would natural selection favor less virulent versions.

Since viral replication occurs quickly, multiple generations of viruses are generated and disseminated way before anyone is dying of coronavirus weeks later.

 
09:53:  79 new cases in Japan. They were found on the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship off Yokohama, raising the ship’s total to 621.

 
jamny said:
As scary as it must be living in China, and we'll probably never learn the true extent of it, until these numbers rise drastically, I'll remain optimistic that this thing will be contained:

12 confirmed cases in the US

2 deaths outside of Mainland China
Click to expand...
2 weeks later:

12 currently being treated. ( +14 from Diamond Princess) 3 recovered, 0 deaths in the US

6 deaths outside of Mainland China

 
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