*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (9 Viewers)

[E Street Brat]

Upcoming dentist appointment. Should I go?

 

[Slapdash]

Temporarily left isolation with my wife to go pick up some supplies before we get sheltered in place.  Have to keep the same streak as @Bluto Blutarsky alive.

 

[mr roboto]

Upcoming dentist appointment. Should I go?

Mine closed. 
 

Are you younger and healthy?  How bad do you need the work done?  These would determine my decision. 

 

[jrt103]

Upcoming dentist appointment. Should I go?

cleaning?  nah

 

[Mr Anonymous]

Not on Covid-19 apparently or a lot of medical professional would start to use it right now

You obviously didn't read the link I provided then. Both China and South Korea used it to successfully treat CV19 patients. The Stanford study I linked is only the most recent study uncovering this. There are many others. The linked Stanford study even mentions how the UK recently banned the export of the drug presumably so they could keep their hands on as much of it as they could.

 

[msommer]

You don’t understand. ‘They’ don’t want this treated. 

 

[Capella]

You obviously didn't read the link I provided then. Both China and South Korea used it to successfully treat CV19 patients. The Stanford study I linked is only the most recent study uncovering this. There are many others. The linked Stanford study even mentions how the UK recently banned the export of the drug presumably so they could keep their hands on as much of it as they could.

So let’s go then. What is the hold up. 

 

[Slapdash]

When I drove to work this afternoon, approx 3 PM, I was stunned at the sheer number of people I saw out in the park that I have to drive through.  People walking dogs, kids playing, families going for walks, people running/biking.  Nothing that jumped out to me as being incredibly high-risk, but I was still stunned.  I guess that's what happens on a 50+ degree day in Buffalo in March.

Like someone else said (may have been you?), this weekend is gonna be a big test.  Temp is supposed to be in the high 60s here, possibly even low 70s.  We've been cooped up (figuratively) since like December....people are gonna want to get outside.

A lot more activity in the park near my house too.  A lot of people keeping good distance, but some geniuses playing basketball everynight.  Some other people doing crossfit activities with the same equipment.  

 

[Slapdash]

Repost from NYC thread:  

Shut it down!

My wife and I decided to get out of the house and walk around the nearby park that's about 3 blocks away. Our immediate neighborhood is pretty deserted. We're about 10 minutes from the Midtown Tunnel. The park was busier than I think I've ever seen it on a chilly Wednesday night. Kids playing baseball, basketball, soccer, handball.  People everywhere in all sizes of groups. Just wait until Friday when it is in the 70's

We're doomed.

It is amazing to me that NYC isn't shut down.  Way too dense, the spread is going to be massive.

 

[Capella]

You don’t understand. ‘They’ don’t want this treated. 

Yea I’m no fan of the guy but trump wants this gone, it’s killing his re-election. Who is the ‘they’ otherwise?

 

[E Street Brat]

53 relatively good shape. Normal scheduled cleaning. 

 

[Mr Anonymous]

So let’s go then. What is the hold up. 

My guess is there's not enough yet to meet the overnight unreal demand that would come if an announcement was made. My hope is that efforts to mass produce are underway and then we'll wake up one day to a hopeful announcement once enough has been procured.

 

[CurlyNight]

Upcoming dentist appointment. Should I go?

No. All elective stuff is being cancelled in many places. Even the WH said dentists as well.

 

[matttyl]

I'd really want to find someone more qualified than Brad Pitt to say that before taking it into any kind of corrobaration or calculation. Please

Have you seen the movie?  He’s playing Ben Rickert (really Ben Hockett), a banker. They didn’t pull that number out of nowhere, and the movie in general was pretty factual, at least with the numbers used.  Unemployment and higher mortality are defiantly linked - Yale Study.  A bit more about the actual quote here.  
 

 

[mr roboto]

Yea I’m no fan of the guy but trump wants this gone, it’s killing his re-election. Who is the ‘they’ otherwise?

No idea.  This shows promise but there’s a side that’s really pumping this treatment right now. 

 

[msommer]

My guess is there's not enough yet to meet the overnight unreal demand that would come if an announcement was made. My hope is that efforts to mass produce are underway and then we'll wake up one day to a hopeful announcement once enough has been procured.

The what?

 

[need2know]

Upcoming dentist appointment. Should I go?

I had one scheduled on tuesday.  I skipped it.

 

[Caesar]

Yep.

I'm sorry he screwed up your order.

At least you know he has a future at McDonalds. 

 

[msommer]

Have you seen the movie?  He’s playing Ben Rickert (really Ben Hockett), a banker. They didn’t pull that number out of nowhere, and the movie in general was pretty factual, at least with the numbers used.  Unemployment and higher mortality are defiantly linked - Yale Study.  A bit more about the actual quote here.  
 

I'll not be fooled into watching a Brad Pitt movie. : 

 

[matttyl]

I'll not be fooled into watching a Brad Pitt movie. : 

Steve Carrell is the lead.  Well, him and Christian Bale and Ryan Gossling.

 

[msommer]

Have you seen the movie?  He’s playing Ben Rickert (really Ben Hockett), a banker. They didn’t pull that number out of nowhere, and the movie in general was pretty factual, at least with the numbers used.  Unemployment and higher mortality are defiantly linked - Yale Study.  A bit more about the actual quote here.  
 

So, how many milliseconds (or months) of unemployment cause the higher death rate?

 

[KarmaPolice]

This seems to be the sentiment in my friend group. Those who don’t take it seriously are saying things like “everything is blown out of proportion all the time and it comes to nothing” so I expect they will double down on that. My husband and I feel it’s much like y2k, it ended up being fine to the end user because of all the work that went into it. But if you don’t understand that, you won’t get this. 

Unfortunately, 2 of the 3 scenarios will feed right into those people's beliefs anyway.   Either we are wrong and it's nothing or we shut down and that works and it feels like nothing = the people who think this is crap get reinforced by lower numbers.   Trouble is the 3rd option is risking a ton of people dying.  

 

[facook]

You don’t understand. ‘They’ don’t want this treated. 

Yea I’m no fan of the guy but trump wants this gone, it’s killing his re-election. Who is the ‘they’ otherwise?

  Domo arigato. Who is "THEY"?!

 

[Mr Anonymous]

The what?

What the heck are you talking about? If an official announcement was made today that there's a drug that is curing those infected, everybody on the planet would want their 1 week supply immediately. Do you not see the chaos it would cause of there wasn't yet enough to go around? My hope is that these studies are being taken seriously and effort is being made to produce it to the level that's needed. Read a friggin' study before you chalk up things as nonsense. This drug has been used to great success on this virus for months now.

 

[rockaction]

Unfortunately, 2 of the 3 scenarios will feed right into those people's beliefs anyway.   Either we are wrong and it's nothing or we shut down and that works and it feels like nothing = the people who think this is crap get reinforced by lower numbers.   Trouble is the 3rd option is risking a ton of people dying.  

Pascal's wager, in a way. 

 

[comfortably numb]

Pascal's wager, in a way. 

Hey!

Joe said no wagers in here!

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

What the heck are you talking about? If an official announcement was made today that there's a drug that is curing those infected, everybody on the planet would want their 1 week supply immediately. Do you not see the chaos it would cause of there wasn't yet enough to go around? My hope is that these studies are being taken seriously and effort is being made to produce it to the level that's needed. Read a friggin' study before you chalk up things as nonsense. This drug has been used to great success on this virus for months now.

This is really odd. For the last couple of days this drug and a couple of others have been cited as having success treating Covid 19 by countries that have a seemingly good handle on the virus compared with the US. Every time it gets posted, basically crickets. What in the actual F are we waiting for? Screw the “produce it then announce it” approach. The country is literally breaking down, in case people haven’t noticed. 

 

[shader]

Non-China Reported Cases

2/7 - 277 reported cases

2/12 - 490 reported cases

2/17 - 893 reported cases -  5 dead 

2/22 - 1,834 reported cases - 19 dead

2/26 - 3,650 reported cases - 57 dead

2/29 - 7,155 reported cases - 109 dead - USA 68 cases - 1 dead

3/1 -    9,039 reported cases - 133 dead - USA 76 cases - 1 dead

3/5 - 17,353 reported cases - 344 dead - USA 210 cases - 12 dead

3/9 - 33,303 reported cases - 881 dead - USA 628 cases - 26 dead

3/13 - 64,567 reported cases - 2,239 dead - USA 2,269 cases - 48 dead

3/14 - 75,916 reported cases - 2,640 dead - USA 2,995 cases - 60 dead

3/15 - 88,508 reported cases - 3,302 dead - USA 3,667 cases - 68 dead

3/16 - 101,557 reported cases - 3,931 dead - USA 4,663 cases - 86 dead

3/17 - 117,300 reported cases - 4,739 dead - USA 6,439 cases - 109 dead

3/18 - 138,059 reported cases - 5,715 dead - USA 9,301 cases - 152 dead

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-J_vry7rclLIGooJ-Cu7OFH8rRRjB51lz1iGkwcTETc/edit#gid=0

 

[rockaction]

Hey!

Joe said no wagers in here!

No fun havin' son of a gun...

If it helps, Pascal's wager states that you should believe in God on the off chance there is a God and heaven/hell dichotomy, because you lose nothing if you believe in God and there is none. 

 

[snore]

So my uncle lives in Guangdong China running a few factories. Here is what he told me yesterday when asked how things were going...thought some might be interested in a “boots on the ground” perspective.

“Our office has been normal for over two weeks. Factories should be in full force within the next two weeks. Workers from certain Hubei  towns are permitted to go out and back to their jobs. We now can dine in restaurants but bars are still closed. The golf club I am a member has been opened for two weeks but no shower is allowed. No sweat, China is now the safest place in the World for COVID-19. All bars, cinema, Karaoke and crowded establishments are still closed here.“

My mom is in Hong Kong and said things were slowly returning to a cautious sense of normal but people still taking necessary precautions to be safe.

 

[shader]

This is exactly what I was getting at above.  I read what the experts project as being the “worst case scenario”, and it’s bad. It’s nearly 500k deaths over the next year plus.  That’s worst case.  

One of my favorite movies recently has been The Big Short.  In it, Brad Pitt has a line that’s really stuck with me - though I don’t know how actually true it is, or how it was derived.  He said that “for every 1% unemployment goes up, 40k people die”.  We’re talking about effective unemployment hitting 20%+ because of this. That’s getting close to 700k if that stat is true and holds true through this.  

There are no easy answers here. But in the meantime people are losing jobs, income, homes, businesses, retirements, and soon enough (apparently) their lives as well.

The worst case scenario over the next year is far higher than 500k deaths.

 

[matttyl]

So, how many milliseconds (or months) of unemployment cause the higher death rate?

I have no idea, read the links if you’re interested.  The quote wasn’t out of thin air, though it may not be applicable here.  Income, or socioeconomic standing, and longevity/mortality are linked.  That’s not really debatable.  We have 162m in our workforce.  1% drop in unemployment would be 1.62m people losing their jobs.  This study shows that unemployment has a 63% higher all-cause mortality rate.  Feel free to crunch some numbers if you like.  

 

[KarmaPolice]

Non-China Reported Cases

2/7 - 277 reported cases

2/12 - 490 reported cases

2/17 - 893 reported cases -  5 dead 

2/22 - 1,834 reported cases - 19 dead

2/26 - 3,650 reported cases - 57 dead

2/29 - 7,155 reported cases - 109 dead - USA 68 cases - 1 dead

3/1 -    9,039 reported cases - 133 dead - USA 76 cases - 1 dead

3/5 - 17,353 reported cases - 344 dead - USA 210 cases - 12 dead

3/9 - 33,303 reported cases - 881 dead - USA 628 cases - 26 dead

3/13 - 64,567 reported cases - 2,239 dead - USA 2,269 cases - 48 dead

3/14 - 75,916 reported cases - 2,640 dead - USA 2,995 cases - 60 dead

3/15 - 88,508 reported cases - 3,302 dead - USA 3,667 cases - 68 dead

3/16 - 101,557 reported cases - 3,931 dead - USA 4,663 cases - 86 dead

3/17 - 117,300 reported cases - 4,739 dead - USA 6,439 cases - 109 dead

3/18 - 138,059 reported cases - 5,715 dead - USA 9,301 cases - 152 dead

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-J_vry7rclLIGooJ-Cu7OFH8rRRjB51lz1iGkwcTETc/edit#gid=0

Those are some scary numbers, but I assume that accelerated pace his reflected in the numbers are due to a focused group of people getting tested?  

 

[Mr Anonymous]

This is really odd. For the last couple of days this drug and a couple of others have been cited as having success treating Covid 19 by countries that have a seemingly good handle on the virus compared with the US. Every time it gets posted, basically crickets. What in the actual F are we waiting for? Screw the “produce it then announce it” approach. The country is literally breaking down, in case people haven’t noticed. 

The variable that keeps coming to mind is current available quantity. It's used to treat malaria and lupus. So what's currently produced is what's needed to meet the demand of those two conditions. Certainly nowhere near what would be need to stop CV19 tomorrow. Perhaps enough to stop it soon.

 

[msommer]

What the heck are you talking about? If an official announcement was made today that there's a drug that is curing those infected, everybody on the planet would want their 1 week supply immediately. Do you not see the chaos it would cause of there wasn't yet enough to go around? My hope is that these studies are being taken seriously and effort is being made to produce it to the level that's needed. Read a friggin' study before you chalk up things as nonsense. This drug has been used to great success on this virus for months now.

i think you have a warped view of how the Hippocratic oath works and how a company whose product could work in solving this health crisis would act

 

[shader]

Those are some scary numbers, but I assume that accelerated pace his reflected in the numbers are due to a focused group of people getting tested?  

For the USA, yes.  But the entire world's numbers have consistently doubled every 4-5 days since February 7th.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

So my uncle lives in Guangdong China running a few factories. Here is what he told me yesterday when asked how things were going...thought some might be interested in a “boots on the ground” perspective.

“Our office has been normal for over two weeks. Factories should be in full force within the next two weeks. Workers from certain Hubei  towns are permitted to go out and back to their jobs. We now can dine in restaurants but bars are still closed. The golf club I am a member has been opened for two weeks but no shower is allowed. No sweat, China is now the safest place in the World for COVID-19. All bars, cinema, Karaoke and crowded establishments are still closed here.“

My mom is in Hong Kong and said things were slowly returning to a cautious sense of normal but people still taking necessary precautions to be safe.

The worst case scenario over the next year is far higher than 500k deaths.

These two posts seem a bit incongruous, granted I’m basically an idiot so help me understand. How is China basically getting back to normal with 3,300 deaths reported, yet the worse case scenario is far higher than 500,000 deaths?

 

[Mr Anonymous]

This study shows that the areas of the world where there is wide use of chloroquine to treat Malaria coincides with low rates of CV19. I suppose it could be a coincidence but worth exploring right?

https://docs.google.com/document/d/12YDytbAsZaruGlhFO7eTTgxSH_BuxJtwFmbhqpkPPSk/mobilebasic?fbclid=IwAR2wXhG5woobpV5DAuHxnf7YOxalQiCkPMX-rUL2z6SIa0AJGovbJ9ATq7A

 

[Terminalxylem]

The more I think of it, you guys suggesting we need a test for immunity may be right. It definitely goes against our standard approach to infectious disease diagnosis, where we look for evidence of active infection. We need those tests first to facilitate appropriate infection control measures and contact tracing. But once those are widely available (hopefully in a couple weeks), it would be nice to know who has and hasn't been exposed, regardless of symptoms.

One issue is conventional antibody tests require two blood draws several weeks apart to show titers of antibodies decreasing with resolved infection. But as another poster mentioned, if you coupled the antibody levels with a nucleic acid test of exclude active infection, in theory you could accomplish the same with a single draw.

The other issue is we don't know the natural history of antibody production in response to C-19 infection. But once that is elaborated, a two-test assay would be a great way to expedite getting society off lockdown.

A few caveats: this assumes the virus doesn't quickly mutate (there's some evidence that is the case), our immune response is effective (seems like people aren't getting reinfected) and most people can develop antibodies targeting the virus (likely true, though there will always be groups with dysfunctional immune systems/using immunosuppressive drugs who can't mount a response).

 

[tonydead]

Actually, every number I've ever posted is likely way under the actual number of infections.  I've also not fear-mongered once.  I'll challenge you to show me one fear-mongering post.  In the last two weeks every major sport in the world has shut down, people can't travel to Europe, people are working from home, schools are closing, people are losing money through the stock market, poor people are forced to go to work to make ends meet despite virus concerns, healthcare systems in Italy are becoming overwhelmed, European nations are failing to control the spread of the virus, and dead bodies are starting to pile up in Italy, just as they did in Wuhan.

So please tell me again how I'm fear-mongering because all those are real events happening and affecting real people.

Here you go:

The worst case scenario over the next year is far higher than 500k deaths.

 

[snore]

These two posts seem a bit incongruous, granted I’m basically an idiot so help me understand. How is China basically getting back to normal with 3,300 deaths reported, yet the worse case scenario is far higher than 500,000 deaths?

Dunno. I can confirm that my uncle isn’t a shill for the Chinese government so he isn’t trying to pull the wool over my eyes. He actually suggested that we consider moving to Guangdong vs Tampa!  Lol. 
 

My guess is that part of it is China needs to get businesses back online and coupled with their likely draconian methods of containment are better positioned to move forward than countries like Italy and maybe even the US. That’s just conjecture though on my part (and some vodka).

 

[matttyl]

The worst case scenario over the next year is far higher than 500k deaths.

CDC estimated a range of 200k-1.7m, with no efforts to slow the spread being done. It’s a huge range.   

 

[mr roboto]

This study shows that the areas of the world where there is wide use of chloroquine to treat Malaria coincides with low rates of CV19. I suppose it could be a coincidence but worth exploring right?

https://docs.google.com/document/d/12YDytbAsZaruGlhFO7eTTgxSH_BuxJtwFmbhqpkPPSk/mobilebasic?fbclid=IwAR2wXhG5woobpV5DAuHxnf7YOxalQiCkPMX-rUL2z6SIa0AJGovbJ9ATq7A

This is potentially great news. 

 

[tonydead]

tl:dr

Tax day delayed 90 days right?

:realworldproblems:

 

[Biff84]

Tomorrow should be an interesting day at the pharmacy. Been off a couple days and tonight the cases are starting to hit near the area. First a Reds employee who was at the Spring Training facility and now two people on Luke Air Force Base. I expect a big shift in panic and HOPEFULLY more people taking it seriously. We’ve ramped up our delivery services but I don’t know how they are going to handle it. We’re gonna go from zero to dozens. I might have to do it myself.

 

[Terminalxylem]

In other news, the HIV drug Kaletra doesn't work.

RESULTS

A total of 199 patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection underwent randomization; 99 were assigned to the lopinavir–ritonavir group, and 100 to the standard-care group. Treatment with lopinavir–ritonavir was not associated with a difference from standard care in the time to clinical improvement (hazard ratio for clinical improvement, 1.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90 to 1.72). Mortality at 28 days was similar in the lopinavir–ritonavir group and the standard-care group (19.2% vs. 25.0%; difference, −5.8 percentage points; 95% CI, −17.3 to 5.7). The percentages of patients with detectable viral RNA at various time points were similar. In a modified intention-to-treat analysis, lopinavir–ritonavir led to a median time to clinical improvement that was shorter by 1 day than that observed with standard care (hazard ratio, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.91). Gastrointestinal adverse events were more common in the lopinavir–ritonavir group, but serious adverse events were more common in the standard-care group. Lopinavir–ritonavir treatment was stopped early in 13 patients (13.8%) because of adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

In hospitalized adult patients with severe Covid-19, no benefit was observed with lopinavir–ritonavir treatment beyond standard care. Future trials in patients with severe illness may help to confirm or exclude the possibility of a treatment benefit. (Funded by Major Projects of National Science and Technology on New Drug Creation and Development and others; Chinese Clinical Trial Register number, ChiCTR2000029308. opens in new tab.)

For the scientifically-inclined, go to The New England Journal of Medicine front page for a bunch of COVID articles - articles about the disease in kids <16, aerosol and surface stability, Italy's response, quarantine laws and a general hospital treatment podcast are all available for free.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

i think you have a warped view of how the Hippocratic oath works and how a company whose product could work in solving this health crisis would act

I see doctors discussing it on Twitter right now asking one another if they should use it. Why, because some of them are willing to try anything at this point. It doesn't have to be some grand conspiracy. It simply could be a supply issue. And btw, it's not necessarily a vaccine, so we'd likely still have that need to develop a permanent solution. But it has the potential to end the current chaos if enough is produced. What is wrong with you? Everything should be explored right now. Most certainly anything that shows promise. 

 

[Cowboysfan8]

We don’t have the testing capacity to test the seemingly healthy.

Unless you are a multi millionaire NBA player

 

[Big League Chew]

This study shows that the areas of the world where there is wide use of chloroquine to treat Malaria coincides with low rates of CV19. I suppose it could be a coincidence but worth exploring right?

https://docs.google.com/document/d/12YDytbAsZaruGlhFO7eTTgxSH_BuxJtwFmbhqpkPPSk/mobilebasic?fbclid=IwAR2wXhG5woobpV5DAuHxnf7YOxalQiCkPMX-rUL2z6SIa0AJGovbJ9ATq7A

That map looks promising

 

[St. Louis Bob]

I brought my dog Shadow to the groomer today. I didn't want to, I felt, I owed it to him. He hasn't had a bath until two weeks before Christmas. The salon to their credit had a system in place.  They met you at the car, put a new lease (ETA or a leash) on, and returned him the same way.  I paid with cc over the phone too.

He's a good puppy!  Yes he is!  Yes he is! So clean...awe, I miss you boy. We can go home now.