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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (17 Viewers)

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adonis said:
The cost to holding on though could be astronomically high. Quarantines across the country, and world, will be hugely disruptive to business.  
 

implement quarantines to an effective level, and you destroy economies.  Half-### them, by maybe not shutting down huge cities, and there’s really no point in having them.
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At some point you tell the old people to stay inside.  

 
Terminalxylem said:
There are many communicable diseases within a hospital at any given moment. Some of them are even deadly. Should a hospital advertise all of those too? 
 

What impact will notifying prospective patients of coronavirus preparation have on throughput at other facilities? While it may not be applicable to all locations, most major cities already have overflowing ERs during the winter. We don’t need to overwhelm smaller hospitals because of unjustified fear of COVID-19 exposure.

If you remain concerned, I recommend you go to non-academic, rural medical centers. Good luck getting the same standard of care you’d receive going to a bigger hospital, even considering the inconsequential risk you’d add of contracting coronavirus from one of their patients or staff.
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I'll just, you know, not go to the one place treating the now six confirmed patients since they released the location due to public and city official insistence. And given the abundance of hospitals in SA, I think I'll just go to one of the others instead of the secondary animal hospital that seems to be the only other choice available in your home town.

 
That ####### cruise ship.  Seriously.

Can you rename a cruise ship?  Because nobody is ever going on that ghost ship ever again.

 
DallasDMac said:
I'll just, you know, not go to the one place treating the now six confirmed patients since they released the location due to public and city official insistence. And given the abundance of hospitals in SA, I think I'll just go to one of the others instead of the secondary animal hospital that seems to be the only other choice available in your home town.
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While your sarcasm is greatly appreciated, I’ll continue to respect patient confidentiality, not submit to hysteria and trust hospital employees to do their jobs. 

And *SPOILER ALERT*, there will be a lot more than six cases before this is all said and done, so you best beat the rush and get your ailments taken care of ASAP.

ETA I work at the largest hospital in town, so I won’t be running away from COVID patients.

 
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Non-China Reported Cases

2/7 - 277

2/12 - 490

2/17 - 893 reported cases - (454 on Diamond Princess) - 135 recovered - 36 serious/critical - 5 dead 

2/18 - 1,014 reported cases (542 on Diamond Princess) - 152 recovered - 39 serious/critical - 5 dead

2/19 - 1,149 reported cases (621 on Diamond Princess) - 169 recovered - 45 serious/critical - 10 dead

2/20 - 1,259 reported cases (634 on Diamond Princess) - 191 recovered - 45 serious/critical - 11 dead

2/21 - 1,525 reported cases (634 on Diamond Princess) - 209 recovered - 52 serious/critical - 15 dead

2/22 - 1,834 reported cases (634 on Diamond Princess) - 210 recovered - 66 serious/critical - 19 dead

2/23 - 2,213 reported cases (691 Diamond Princess cases) - 227 recovered - 82 serious/critical - 27 dead

2/24 - 2,491 reported cases - 38 dead 

 
-fish- said:
If the flu had  a 10x higher death rate and a higher infection rate.
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and there’s no vaccine, no tamiflu, no built in immunities, limited knowledge of what this can do, it lasts longer, governments are quarantining people, creating curfews, cancelling public events, damaging their own economies... 

 
We're all going to die

https://us.yahoo.com/news/harvard-scientist-predicts-coronavirus-infect-195800282.html

Harvard University epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch is predicting the coronavirus "will ultimately not be containable" and, within a year, will infect somewhere between 40 and 70 percent of humanity, The Atlantic reports. But don't be too alarmed. Many of those people, Lipsitch clarifies, won't have severe illnesses or even show symptoms at all, which is already the case for many people who have tested positive for the virus.

That's precisely why he doesn't think the virus can be stopped. Viruses like SARS, MERS, and the avian flu were eventually contained in part because they were more intense and had a higher fatality rate. In other words, if you were infected by the virus that caused SARS, chances were you weren't out and about. But because the current coronavirus, known as COVID-19, can be asymptomatic, or at least very mild, there's a better chance people will likely go about their day as normal. The down side, though, is that it becomes harder to trace and prevent. In that sense it's similar to the flu, which can also be deadly, but often passes without the infected person seeking medical care.

The Atlantic reports Lipsitch is definitely not alone in his prediction. There's an emerging consensus that the outbreak will eventually morph into a new seasonal disease, which, per The Atlantic, could one day turn "cold and flu season" into "cold and flu and COVID-19 season." 
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For the science types, here's the Washington Post's take on how the virus kills and then a description from an advisor to Cytodyn as to why he thinks their drug will be an effective treatment:

Washington Post

“Experts hypothesize that the difference between a lethal infection and one that feels like a bad cold probably hinges on the interaction between the virus and a person’s immune system.”

“What you get is the initial damage and rush of inflammatory cells, but the damage is so extensive that the body’s immune response is completely overwhelmed — which causes even more immune response, more immune cells and more damage,” 

Bruce Patterson:

“Leronlimab enhances the innate and cellular immune response by inhibiting Treg cells which turn off the immune system. In addition, CCL5-CCR5 is one of the pathways that controls the massive migration of immune cells to sites of inflammation. Last, leronlimab reprograms macrophages. Taken together all of these effects don’t target the virus but it hopefully can mitigate the severe damage caused by the resulting cytokine storm.”
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fantasycurse42 said:
Can someone help me with my doomsday kit? What should I get besides canned tuna and bottles of water?
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While it is always a good idea to have spare water for all emergencies  a coronavirus outbreak is unlikely to affect the water supply.   Stock up on canned, frozen and dry foods, tp, bleach/disinfectants, cleaning products and medicines.   

 
 On Sunday, my daughter was returning to Riva San Vitale, Switzerland from Naples ,Italy and had to make a train change in Milan.  She said the train station was as busy as usual (which surprised me) and that there were loudspeaker messages in multiple languages  warning of the coronavirus and everybody was wearing face masks ( which is not normal for this area).  She commented that she felt like she was living in Japan again...

 
A dystopian look into aspects of the "post quarantine" future? :unsure:  
 

A post from Shanghai, one month after lockdowns: 

My impressions from Shanghai, China: one month later, a wartime economy (Feb 25)

We here in Shanghai have entered a new phase in the fight against the epidemic as over the past few weeks (Feb 10, Feb 17 and Feb 24) there has been a staggered return to work for some people who can't work remotely and managed to return to Shanghai before they effectively closed down the city (more below). 

Its been two weeks since my last update on Feb 8 (my VPN was blocked for a week which is in itself news, I guess) and one month has passed since the epidemic finally became widely known, a short time that has changed life as we know it and turned old certainties upside down. In the meantime, the city government has enacted a flurry of new measures to manage the heightened risk of a new outbreak given so many people are commuting every day again, and as the virus is now spreading around the globe, you may find the following interesting as a "post from the future" of measures coming to a place near you soon!

Some people have called the return to work a return to normalcy, but it is really anything but: this society now only works with the strongest intrusion into freedom of movement and privacy possible (even by Chinese standards). Most tourist sites, museums, gyms, parks, even all temples and churches (as much vindicated by the developments in Korea!) remain shut, most stores close early at 5 or 6pm (even in the main downtown shopping street) until at least March 1,and schools remain closed beyond that date even (with many opting for online classes).

Moreover, we are effectively locked into the city (though not the compound), even if that is only de-facto and not explicitely spelt out (as so often in China): since Feb 14, the city has been enacting an elaborate set of rules of  who can enter the city (for example, you need to provide documents proving you either live or work here) that is strictly enforced on all borders and modes of transportation. Those returning from 'key affected areas' (which could be as close as Zhejiang province with much-stricken Wenzhou) are placed under mandatory home quarantine for 2 weeks, and even by mid month as many as 100,000 people were undergoing quarantine at home or at "central places" (Shanghai Daily) already.  Similiar measures are in place in many od the other major cities you'd want to visit, such as Hangzhou or Beijing. The bottom line is that even with spring arriving and blossoms everywhere, tourism is effectively dead and the risk of either being denied return to the city or being locked up for 2 weeks (as always the law is vague and interpretation  depends on the respective check point and official) is too great to really travel anywhere, even just to nearby villages beyond the city border (interprovincial metro extension has been shut down weeks ago).

New masks for purchase are still nowhere to be found, with the poorest members of society such as beggars and the homeless segregated by their lack of masks and susceptibility to the sickness, while the new middle class sport the most fancy gas masks, goggles and protection suits. Apart from a rampant black market of (sometimes counterfeit) masks, the only avenue to new masks is the government distribution scheme, which allows the purchase of simple surgical masks with appointment at designated pharmacies and times. So far, I have been able to "scoop" 2 bags of only 5 masks each. I'm on my last package of N95 masks. Reading that only 600K of these masks are produced for the entire country, I have given up hope to get hold of these for the foreseeable future, reflecting how panic and disbelief about the situation has now been replaced by resignation. The economy is restarting slowly and with many restrictions, but normal life is nowhere to be seen; the machine is running again but with no margin for error and no leisure time allotted. 

With people getting back to work, how does the city manage the increased masses and density of people during rush hour (while nowhere near normal amounts - there's still seats to spare on the trains opposed to sardine tin squeezing)? Masks are mandatory in all public places, all subway stations do temperature checks (many by advanced thermal imaging) and in fact, these checkpoints exist almost everywhere now: residential communities, shopping malls, supermarkets, tourist sites (those few still open), bar streets,  business buildings and even (or especially?) fast food restaurants. In many cases, the temperature check is accompanied with a mandatory registration (paper and pen - hand sanitizer provided fortunately) of name, phone number and in some cases (as I've seen for business buildings) even ID/passport. The point of which is of course if any worker or visitor to a place were to fall sick, they could quickly track down and lock up all other visitors who may have the misfortune to be at the wrong place at the wrong time. Imagine getting your fix at local McDonald's by having a guy in hazmat suit measure your temperature and writing down your personal contact info! There is a pervasive feeling of threat looming as failing any official temperature check (which is as low as 37.3°C - Asians have lower base body temperature) could get you locked up at home or worse, one of the mass quarantine centers. Normalcy? Not much.

Residential communities have also strengthened controls. They are the major line of defense against spreading, as these compounds would enforce the mandatory two week quarantine of returning workers by being in touch with the border crossing officials (you need to provide proof of residence). Suited up guards will hand everyone who is allowed to leave a color-coded exit slip (prevent reusing) at the only remaining entrance/exit, which you need to present on return to prove you live there. On return, temperature will be measured and any visitors or other non-residents are not allowed into the compound (that includes deliverymen so packages pile up outside the gate - those that do deliver at all). The state mobile companies now provide a "service" of using phone triangulation records to provide you with a travel history that is accepted as evidence for your whereabouts - a reminder that no matter the front, the government and party controls everything and may co-opt any (private or not) business and property for the battle against the virus. 

Nevertheless, there is much evidence that many workers could not return to the city at all so far (with bigger and wealthier companies even opting for direct charter flights to return their workforce due to disruption of public transportation and travel restrictions throughout the country), especially among the large, semi-legal migrant worker population who'd propably not have the necessary paperwork. I noticed unlike other years, one month after Chinese New Year construction sites are still idle and New Year decorations were not removed even though even planned (and cancelled) activities ended two weeks ago after am lantern festival. Workers should have returned immediately after that date. Also, while much has been speculated about the "online economy" taking over, in fact apart from food deliveries many deliveries do not arrive at all as there seems to be severe shortage in people and disruption to the process. Add to that many brick and mortar stores not opening at all for weeks since either its cheaper for them to close (and not pay workers) than open and have no customers, or not being allowed to open as a businesses must prove they have strict hygiene and quarantine procedures in place (provide health documentation and travel records for all workers) , and the economic outlook does not look rosy at all.

In recent days, major downtown subway lines have cut running times to as early as 9.30pm (another escalation in restrictions I nearly missed as it was communicated very subtly only through chinese language announcements in stations) and after 6pm as well as on weekends when people do not have to go to offices for work, not much has changed compared to the time immediately after the extended spring festival holiday earlier this month: even downtown, streets are deserted from people and cars as nobody goes out without necessity, shops are shuttered and as the city grows quiet and dark, the only reminder of ongoing life are the ubiquitous screens in the streets and on skyscrapers that play the "Keep Fighting Wuhan! Keep Fighting China!" song, praise the medical heroes (co-opting and redirecting the recent outrage about the death of Dr. Li) and provide health education (sometimes including, somewhat amusingly, the advice not to eat bats!) - a zombified city being not quite dead and not quite alive. 

This is our "wartime economy"; the front line may be far away and the enemy invisible, but the impact on our lives is felt everywhere.

---

Wow... 

 
When asked for advice for people from countries where the virus hasn't hit yet, the individual from Shanghai above said: 

"Apart from the usual (masks, cleaning and desinfection products, food stockpile), here's some more philosophical advice: expect the unexpected, plan for double and triple backups, slow down and live life more consciously - while things are still normal."

 
[icon] said:
No need. Got a bunch in mid January... you guys can have your long lines next to coughing/sneezing carriers 👍
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How many is a bunch? This seems like a long term thing, a bunch in January might be a relatively short supply when the rubber meets the road. Just curious

Da Guru said:
Went to my local grocery store tonight, saw 5 people with masks on.  Two were cashiers. 
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This makes a lot of sense, your interaction with the outside world is limited to what you need it to be i.e. I'm going to the market for a can of soup, checking out and heading right back home. Cashiers are stuck in basically the same spot for 6-8 hours entertaining all manners of humanoids in various states of health. I'd wear a level C suit at a minimum.

 
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We finally got a message back from our friend in Hubei last night.  She had gone about 6 days before she replied to our last text.  She was moved from the orphanage to the hospital probably 2-3 weeks ago.   

She said she was fine, but had been separated from her phone because her mom had it.  A lot gets lost in translation when texting back and forth with her.  

Basically, it sounded like she is stuck in the hospital she works at and she can't leave.   Which I guess is common?  Such an awful situation there right now.  

 
The major problem with these masks are that they’re made in China where the demand is . How are people in construction going to deal with a shortage 

 
It seems once you ID the likely hot spots it can be contained.  This whack a mole approach seems annoying but sustainable.

 
I read up on the procedures with masks, and what I ended up thinking was I'd end up contaminating myself taking it off anyway, like most people will.

 
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