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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (7 Viewers)

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Mr. Ham said:
Analysis of first 50k cases shows 5% mortality. This is because of state of healthcare in China, but what it reveals is that this disease sends too many people into respiratory distress. At some point the system gets overrun and drugs and hospital beds are in short supply. I may be batty, but remember I watched as my son say, “I feel dizzy,” and go into cardiac arrest and doctors worked on him for an hour until they called it. I will do anything to protect my kids. The low mortality rate relies on aggressive medical intervention. That is a gamble I want to avoid. 
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Yea man sometimes I bust your balls for your......ummmm...ambitiousness but you’ve been through an event I am certain I could not live through so I can understand. 

 
ProstheticRGK said:
Curious to see how the percentage of COVID19 cases stacks up against normal influenza, taking age and comorbidities into account. 
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There will be a ton of dissertations written about this pandemic. There will be a goldmine of data worldwide.

 
ProstheticRGK said:
Curious to see how the percentage of COVID19 cases stacks up against normal influenza, taking age and comorbidities into account. 
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There will be a ton of dissertations written about this pandemic. There will be a goldmine of data worldwide.

 
Doug B said:
My concern for you, specifically, is that there’ll be no “safe” time for you guys to resume normal activity.

I don’t think guys like you and Icon are crazy or misguided. I just think you’re getting boxed in by circumstances.
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How are we getting boxed in by circumstances? 
 

Not stocking a month or two of food = you have one option, interact with the (Sick?) public regularly to fulfill your needs... hoping stores have what you need/want in stock. 
 

Stocking a bit of extra food = you have two options.. interact with the public at will (pending news reports of crowds / hospital conditions / store stock levels, etc.), or stay home and relax eating your food and watching Netflix and boning your wife. 

Having some supplies on hand give you infinitely more flexibility. 

 
Mr. Ham said:
Otis, in absence of excellent healthcare, the morality rate may be as high as 15%. And we’re just learning what may happen with reinfection and how that will influence overall mortality. 
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Where's the support for this?  That's intense.

 
There was a Taiwan news article stating that the mortality in Wuhan was 5% due to the poor medical care.

I cannot find a link right now.

 
Capella said:
Yea man sometimes I bust your balls for your......ummmm...ambitiousness but you’ve been through an event I am certain I could not live through so I can understand. 
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I agree with this 100% @Mr. Ham.  I feel like I can bust your chops about it because, let's be honest, you've always been this cytokine storm nuts, but I do agree with Cappy on this point and the same occurred to me.  And hell, look, in the end you may be right.  I could end up out in the streets fighting off looters with half the world dead.  I'm thinking not; I'm thinking you're just still as lovably nutty as ever.  But who knows.

 
Otis said:
I agree with this 100% @Mr. Ham.  I feel like I can bust your chops about it because, let's be honest, you've always been this cytokine storm nuts, but I do agree with Cappy on this point and the same occurred to me.  And hell, look, in the end you may be right.  I could end up out in the streets fighting off looters with half the world dead.  I'm thinking not; I'm thinking you're just still as lovably nutty as ever.  But who knows.
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Did you end up getting a dog?   Doberman!

 
Capella said:
The over 80 year olds are experiencing a death rate of 14.9%...his comment is not factually correct. 
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Right.  let's just have real facts in there then.  If you're 80, you've lived a pretty good life and lots of stuff is going to do you in soon enough either way.  Nothing tragic about this thing killing a bunch of 85 and 90 year olds, sorry gang.  If it starts killing healthy 10, and 20, and 30, and 40 year olds, that's a different animal.  I don't believe that's happening yet with any appreciable frequency. 

 
Mr. Ham said:
Spent the last two days lugging thirty 40 pound bags of potting soil and compost. Was waiting for today, which was the last cold day forecast in the 25 day forecast. Was 32 this morning, but won’t dip below 40 probably until November. All 60s-70s forecast here in Austin. Spring is here.

So spent today planting. I started about 200 seeds indoors, and planted additional seeds today and fertilized vegetables that don’t need to be started indoors. All told, I’ve prepped the soil and potted or sewn seeds in two large garden spots I have on my property. 

I’m growing:

  • Onions (yellow and white)
  • Carrots (multiple varieties)
  • Potatoes (multiple varieties)
  • Peppers (red, mild, hot varieties)
  • Leeks
  • Broccoli
  • Beans (multiple varieties)
  • Herbs (basil. parsley, oregano, rosemary)
  • Artichokes
  • Beets
  • Tomatoes (multiple varieties)
  • Raspberry bush
  • Blueberry bush
  • Strawberries
  • Swiss chard
  • Lettuce
  • Spinach
  • Eggplant 
  • Brussel sprouts 
  • Watermelon 
Wife caught the prep fever and we got a big delivery from Costco with enough staples for a long haul: toilet paper, pet food, detergent, toothpaste, and another 20 pound bag of rice. Plus, some canned chicken and canned veggies.

I’ve amended my workouts over the last six months from free weights to mostly do kettles, pushups and pull-ups, so as of tomorrow I’m bagging the gym workouts and getting a few more kettle bells for the home. There’s a four mile nature hike that goes through woods I can access from the house, so going to work out at home and hike indefinitely.

We’re basically prepared for a summer without leaving the homestead if needed. Hopefully won’t come to that, but feels reassuring. If there are any local cases, we’re pulling the kids from school and will cancel all deliveries to the home and hunker down. Our plan is to not get the virus until this wave runs its course, hopefully slowing down in the summer. We’ll spend a lot of time cooking lots of veggies, and by the pool. 

Assuming there is a sizable surplus from the garden, we’ll freeze a good deal of that (have two good sized freezers) and give a lot away to neighbors.
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Man—and somehow I get the reputation of being the fear mongerer in this thread. Jk. Lol.  In all seriousness—you just do you man.  Aside from extra water, canned food, Clorox wipes, bleach, and extra medication for my mother—I really haven’t done much.   I probably should prepare further—but I probably won’t get to 10% of what you’ve done.  Regardless, the amount of time and effort you have taken to look out for your family is admirable no matter what anybody in this thread says.  

 
MTskibum said:
There was a Taiwan news article stating that the mortality in Wuhan was 5% due to the poor medical care.

I cannot find a link right now.
Click to expand...
That wouldn't be stunning.  For this to be meaningful I'd like to see it alongside relative mortality rates for a bunch of other run of the mill diseases.  If it's 5% mortality rate in freaking Wuhan, what could it possibly be here in the US?  Half that?  Less?  And again, of that 1 or 2% affected, I imagine nearly are all elderly or with otherwise weakened immune systems.  That to me is not reason to shut down schools for a month, call off the Olympics or SXSW, or raid your local Costco.

 
Otis said:
Right.  let's just have real facts in there then.  If you're 80, you've lived a pretty good life and lots of stuff is going to do you in soon enough either way.  Nothing tragic about this thing killing a bunch of 85 and 90 year olds, sorry gang.  If it starts killing healthy 10, and 20, and 30, and 40 year olds, that's a different animal.  I don't believe that's happening yet with any appreciable frequency. 
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How old are your parents and your wife's parents? 

 
The General said:
Anyone have domestic work plans effected yet? Cancelled trips, altered plans, etc for things happening in US?
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I have a family trip to NYC coming up week of 3/15.  

Not sure what to do about it.  Have travel insurance for some of the key elements, but it won't cover this.  So will be a last minute decision as there's no benefit in straight cancelling at this point.

Don't consider any of us in the risk category.

 
[icon] said:
How old are your parents and your wife's parents? 
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I called my mom and we talked about this a little bit yesterday. Neither my parents nor my in-laws are even over 60, but we have all 8 grandparents still alive. I'm more than a little concerned if something touches down in Louisville or Evansville, IN soon. 😕

 
Mr. Ham said:
I believe the worst part of this will be the next 3 months. From there, the world will get better at dealing with the virus and things will improve, helped by the warm summer months in the Northern Hemisphere. Now there are too many unknowns.
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Are you armed?

 
yeah just read insurance policy, specifically calls out pandemic as not covered.  ####.

Had been putting off reading that after hearing people say it's not covered.

 
Mr. Ham said:
Last 3 years, I have flown 500k air miles for work. But so happens, as happens in big companies, the business unit I have led for the past 18 months is no longer a strategic priority and is getting spun down. Basically, company thought it wanted to build a new business and is on track with all projections when we set out, but no longer wants to build that business because we did a huge acquisition (tens of billions) and it changed the entire company’s focus. So I’m between roles and interviewing for things within and outside of my company. Worst case, I can take a package and have 6 months between jobs. 

I may just stall taking that next gig.
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Huh.  Almost like it's pre-ordained.

 
Work for a decent sized company but has Ron of work in Japan. They have suspended travel to  Japan and we just had our first direction on how to handle getting sick and self quarantining.

Still nothing domestic changing but starting to hear some rumbling.

 
McBokonon said:
Ditto. Think I’ll head to an AMP and ask her to finish by sneezing on me. She’ll be confused, but she’ll do it because 60 bucks is 60 bucks.
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Yup. Get it early while there’s lots of room in the hospital. I’ll be out in time to enjoy the light traffic.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Mr. Ham said:
Spent the last two days lugging thirty 40 pound bags of potting soil and compost. Was waiting for today, which was the last cold day forecast in the 25 day forecast. Was 32 this morning, but won’t dip below 40 probably until November. All 60s-70s forecast here in Austin. Spring is here.

So spent today planting. I started about 200 seeds indoors, and planted additional seeds today and fertilized vegetables that don’t need to be started indoors. All told, I’ve prepped the soil and potted or sewn seeds in two large garden spots I have on my property. 

I’m growing:

  • Onions (yellow and white)
  • Carrots (multiple varieties)
  • Potatoes (multiple varieties)
  • Peppers (red, mild, hot varieties)
  • Leeks
  • Broccoli
  • Beans (multiple varieties)
  • Herbs (basil. parsley, oregano, rosemary)
  • Artichokes
  • Beets
  • Tomatoes (multiple varieties)
  • Raspberry bush
  • Blueberry bush
  • Strawberries
  • Swiss chard
  • Lettuce
  • Spinach
  • Eggplant 
  • Brussel sprouts 
  • Watermelon 
  • Asparagus 
Wife caught the prep fever and we got a big delivery from Costco with enough staples for a long haul: toilet paper, pet food, detergent, toothpaste, and another 20 pound bag of rice. Plus, some canned chicken and canned veggies.

I’ve amended my workouts over the last six months from free weights to mostly do kettles, pushups and pull-ups, so as of tomorrow I’m bagging the gym workouts and getting a few more kettle bells for the home. There’s a four mile nature hike that goes through woods I can access from the house, so going to work out at home and hike indefinitely.

We’re basically prepared for a summer without leaving the homestead if needed. Hopefully won’t come to that, but feels reassuring. If there are any local cases, we’re pulling the kids from school and will cancel all deliveries to the home and hunker down. Our plan is to not get the virus until this wave runs its course, hopefully slowing down in the summer. We’ll spend a lot of time cooking lots of veggies, and by the pool. 

Assuming there is a sizable surplus from the garden, we’ll freeze a good deal of that (have two good sized freezers) and give a lot away to neighbors.
Click to expand...
No ammo reload bench? 

 
Mr. Ham said:
I look at it differently. I don’t see much utility in waiting out 2 weeks for a virus that will take months to subside in any local outbreak. My goal is to wait out the first waves of saturated healthcare (God willing). Then, presumably, there would be a wartime effort to increase production of drugs, document treatment protocols, and eventually inoculate. My mindset is how to avoid getting in this calendar year. What happens next year is a different reality I can adjust to then. 
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What do envision happening to you in the evenT  you get it?

 
Otis said:
That wouldn't be stunning.  For this to be meaningful I'd like to see it alongside relative mortality rates for a bunch of other run of the mill diseases.  If it's 5% mortality rate in freaking Wuhan, what could it possibly be here in the US?  Half that?  Less?  And again, of that 1 or 2% affected, I imagine nearly are all elderly or with otherwise weakened immune systems.  That to me is not reason to shut down schools for a month, call off the Olympics or SXSW, or raid your local Costco.
Click to expand...
The issue is that our health care system pretty much is at capacity already. If a large influx of new patients occurs it can deteriorate patient results significantly and it is not like we can go crisis mode like China and build a ####### hospital in a week. If out break is huge I wouldn’t be shocked if mortality is similar to Wuhan. If not then think will be much lower then Wuhan. Don’t think anyone knows where it will all shake out. 
 

I don’t see society collapsing but I do think possible healthcare system is way overstretched and no way able to handle case load. 

 
culdeus said:
This is more than three weeks old at this point. 
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I am sorry, but the news places have quit covering Wuhan and shifted more globally, in my opinion it is still the most credible source of what the mortality rate would look like if the health care system is overwhelmed.

Of course, I fully admit that article could be proven wrong in the future. There are too many unknowns at this point.

 
Mr. Ham said:
The whistleblower report in Wapo is terrifying. Basically, Heath and Human Services sent people to work with evacuees from Wuhan, they didn’t wear any protective gear, weren’t tested because they looked good, and now the case in Northern California seems to be related. It’s loose, and America isn’t testing.

I agree with your sober assessment that guy on subway has it, or will soon enough. So question is how comfortable you are with your household contracting it and letting it run it’s course. I don’t think we know enough yet, and the highest risks will be in the next 18 months. So I will go out of my way to make sacrifices and changes to life to ensure my family’s time comes after there is a vaccine, if possible. It may not be. 

My community is more at risk than most. I live in a high tech hub. 50% of my kid’s school is Indian or Chinese, and a good subsection has either had work or personal travel since the holidays,  

I am very aware of any signs. If there are any, I think it’s reasonable to flex my incredible luxury to take some time away from circulation. We are blessed in that we live within the city limits of the 10th biggest city in America, but can barely see the houses around us. If ever there’s a time to cash in on an insurance policy for decades of hard work, it may just be now that it makes sense to call a time out for some months to see how things pan out. 
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Ham, let me ask you this: how do you deal with the common flu in your office and local school? Anything like this?  And is your presumably very increased response here justified by the slightly increased mortality rate?

 
The General said:
Anyone have domestic work plans effected yet? Cancelled trips, altered plans, etc for things happening in US?
Click to expand...
We have been getting regular updates. 

On our team call yesterday we were told not to come in if we were sick at all, and can work remotely full time (vs 2 days a week) if cases surface in town. I'll be doing that. 

 
Redwes25 said:
The issue is that our health care system pretty much is at capacity already. If a large influx of new patients occurs it can deteriorate patient results significantly and it is not like we can go crisis mode like China and build a ####### hospital in a week. If out break is huge I wouldn’t be shocked if mortality is similar to Wuhan. If not then think will be much lower then Wuhan. Don’t think anyone knows where it will all shake out. 
 

I don’t see society collapsing but I do think possible healthcare system is way overstretched and no way able to handle case load. 
Click to expand...
Why are we assuming a large influx of new patients?? For what?  When you get the flu you stay home and drink fluids. 

 
[icon] said:
Gotcha.

So if your mom caught it and was admitted to the hospital I guess you'd just bring the grandkids up to visit her and say "Hey Mom, it's no biggie. You lived a good life. Something was probably going to get you soon anyway"? 
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No. I’d look at the 1% mortality rate relative to the sub 1% mortality rate of the flu and hope she does well. What amount of canned pinto beans is going to change the outcome?

 
The General said:
Work for a decent sized company but has Ron of work in Japan. They have suspended travel to  Japan and we just had our first direction on how to handle getting sick and self quarantining.

Still nothing domestic changing but starting to hear some rumbling.
Click to expand...
I work for regional distributor who sells parts manufactured out of US-based HQ. We have over 70 global distributorships. 4 -5 wks ago a note cameo out from corporate suspending all international travel. Couple days ago annual (global) distributor meeting, scheduled for next week in US, was cancelled. 

 
Otis said:
Lol at “domestic work plans” and “light social distancing”

I love you guys, but you are huge nerds. 
Click to expand...
My industry has a big conference in SF next month, companies are pulling out of left and right. Millions in hotel, travel plans all gone.

So far I haven’t had anything change yet have multiple trips on the books but another week or so of people getting this, general pants crapping and who knows?

I just go where they tell me.

 
Non-China Reported Cases

2/7 - 277

2/12 - 490

2/17 - 893 reported cases -  5 dead 

2/22 - 1,834 reported cases - 19 dead

2/23 - 2,213 reported cases - 27 dead

2/24 - 2,491 reported cases - 38 dead 

2/25 - 2,931 reported cases - 48 dead

2/26 - 3,650 reported cases - 57 dead

2/27 - 4,544 reported cases - 70 dead

 
AAABatteries said:
Pretty much done prepping for the run of people prepping for Coronavirus.  Shouldn’t run out of food and TP now.
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I was cleaning this morning, and we happened to run out of both Scrubbing Bubbles and Lysol bleach-y clean-y stuff, so off to Safeway I went to look like a prepper.  In that aisle, the disinfecting wipe area had been decimated.

 
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