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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)

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Having to reimagine my garage as a home gym.  Must not let corona stop my gainz.  Thing is if I get this to a certain level what's the protocol for letting others use it?

 
India seems to be fairing well so far, considering their population density.  Matter of time or did they implement early measures?

 
parasaurolophus said:
Alcohol is expected to be effective against this thing, what about some of the others? 
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3% hydrogen peroxide is effective. That's the concentration you'll usually see in brown-bottle drugstore peroxide. Higher concentrations are out there, but you might have to get it online or at specialty retailers (not sure where).

Diluted bleach will kill the virus, though I don't have a recipe at the ready. It's possible to dilute the bleach enough to kill viruses but still not irritate your hands (sort of like amped-up clean swimming-pool water). Take care near clothing, of course.

Regular ol' soap & water -- Ivory soap, Lever 2000, Dial, Irish Spring, Softsoap, Ms. Meyers, Suave, shampoo in general, etc., whatever you've got. It's not handy when you're not by a sink, no. But soap/shampoo does do a good job of mechanically removing the virus from your hands (not a quick wash, though ... 20 seconds or so).

 
Doug B said:
3% hydrogen peroxide is effective. That's the concentration you'll usually see in brown-bottle drugstore peroxide. Higher concentrations are out there, but you might have to get it online or at specialty retailers (not sure where).

Diluted bleach will kill the virus, though I don't have a recipe at the ready. It's possible to dilute the bleach enough to kill viruses but still not irritate your hands (sort of like amped-up clean swimming-pool water). Take care near clothing, of course.

Regular ol' soap & water -- Ivory soap, Lever 2000, Dial, Irish Spring, Softsoap, Ms. Meyers, Suave, shampoo in general, etc., whatever you've got. It's not handy when you're not by a sink, no. But soap/shampoo does do a good job of mechanically removing the virus from your hands (not a quick wash, though ... 20 seconds or so).
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5 tablespoons of bleach per gallon of water is the ratio the CDC recommends.

 
kutta said:
You said that a person with the flu infects 1.3 other people, and a person with Covid19 infects 10+ other people, when the true rate of spread is 2.2 or so from Covid19. That has nothing to do with sporting events. That’s just misleading and false.

It’s that kind of skewing of the real facts that puts people into more of a panic. 
 

So please.. Please... PLEASE stop posting misleading statistics in a thread where we are trying to have a reasonable conversation.
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The R0 of both the flu and COVID-19 are overall averages. They include people who interact with 1000 people per day and people who interact with fewer than 10 people per day. 

In the US we aren't cancelling everything. We are only cancelling things which result in large crowds. Thus applying the overall average R0 to a discussion about cancelling large crowds is applying a number to a subset of what the number is an average of. It's a misapplication. 

Large crowds have an R0 multiple times higher than what the R0 is for those interacting with few people. 

A multiple of 1 is 1, regardless of what that multiple is. A multiple of a number of close to 1 (such as 1.3) is going to result in something relatively close to 1. In other words numbers close to 1 don't grow much when multiplied. Numbers larger than 1 however grow quickly when multiplied. So even though we don't know what the multiple is, we know that while large crowds grows the spread of the flu, it's not even close to the growth of the spread of COVID-19 due to large crowds. While the R0 of the flu in large crowds will remain close to 1.3 (given the 1.3 is an average that already includes large crowds, so it's more like 1.15 times the large crowd multiple), the large crowd multiple applied to 2.2 (which is the lowest I have even seen... I've seen it as high as 5) is going to result in a much higher number. While using 2.2 may not result in 10+, 3.0, 4.0 and 5.0 very easily would result in 10+. 

And ultimately, if you are focused on whether the numbers are entirely accurate, you are missing the point completely. What happened to Italy's hospital system really happened, even if the number really is 2.2. That means even 2.2 is enough to overwhelm the hospitals, when the flu is proven it doesn't.

The point is we've observed that COVID-19 spreads fast enough to produce overwhelmed hospitals where as the flu does not. Once it's observed, the numbers aren't the point at all anymore. 

 
Brunell4MVP said:
China COVID-19 mortality rate by age group ...

ages 10-19: 0.2%

ages 20-29: 0.2%

ages 30-39: 0.2%

ages 40-49: 0.4%

ages 50-59: 1.3%

ages 60-69: 3.6%

ages 70-79: 8%

80 and over: 14.8%
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One -- this information is old. Probably still largely accurate, but it's not new revelatory info.

Second -- that's still 1 in 500  infected 10- to 39-year succumbing to the virus.

Three -- the mortality rates aren't the point. Concentration on mortality rates is a big red herring.

 
Jenan Moussa @jenanmoussa · 5h

Italy reported its biggest day-to-day jump in cases of #COVID19. 3497 new cases - a 20% increase in 24 hrs.

Authorities cited irresponsible behavior by citizens, who despite warnings headed to beaches or ski resorts, especially after closure of schools.

(Note that Italy has already been more or less entirely shut down for the last six days.)

 
Thinking about signing up for Nutrisystem--30 days of meals for $275.00 and that would eliminate a lot of the worry about going to the store for food at least. I would probably order two sets of this and not necessarily follow the plan, but it would  be a supplement to the food I have already bought for my wife and daughter. 

 
Insta cart and amazon prime grocery delivery are all booked out until next Friday at the soonest. Assuming it’s still available by then. Just FYI

 
Politician Spock said:
The R0 of both the flu and COVID-19 are overall averages. They include people who interact with 1000 people per day and people who interact with fewer than 10 people per day. 

In the US we aren't cancelling everything. We are only cancelling things which result in large crowds. Thus applying the overall average R0 to a discussion about cancelling large crowds is applying a number to a subset of what the number is an average of. It's a misapplication. 

Large crowds have an R0 multiple times higher than what the R0 is for those interacting with few people. 

A multiple of 1 is 1, regardless of what that multiple is. A multiple of a number of close to 1 (such as 1.3) is going to result in something relatively close to 1. In other words numbers close to 1 don't grow much when multiplied. Numbers larger than 1 however grow quickly when multiplied. So even though we don't know what the multiple is, we know that while large crowds grows the spread of the flu, it's not even close to the growth of the spread of COVID-19 due to large crowds. While the R0 of the flu in large crowds will remain close to 1.3 (given the 1.3 is an average that already includes large crowds, so it's more like 1.15 times the large crowd multiple), the large crowd multiple applied to 2.2 (which is the lowest I have even seen... I've seen it as high as 5) is going to result in a much higher number. While using 2.2 may not result in 10+, 3.0, 4.0 and 5.0 very easily would result in 10+. 

And ultimately, if you are focused on whether the numbers are entirely accurate, you are missing the point completely. What happened to Italy's hospital system really happened, even if the number really is 2.2. That means even 2.2 is enough to overwhelm the hospitals, when the flu is proven it doesn't.

The point is we've observed that COVID-19 spreads fast enough to produce overwhelmed hospitals where as the flu does not. Once it's observed, the numbers aren't the point at all anymore. 
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That’s a good point that the flu numbers of 1.3 already include large gatherings and the Covid19 numbers of 2.2 (or whatever) don’t because they’ve been cancelled.

Thanks - I hadn’t thought of it that way.

 
Courtjester said:
Thinking about signing up for Nutrisystem--30 days of meals for $275.00 and that would eliminate a lot of the worry about going to the store for food at least. I would probably order two sets of this and not necessarily follow the plan, but it would  be a supplement to the food I have already bought for my wife and daughter. 
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If you can actually get it delivered. We have ordered multiple items (not Nutrisystem) and have been told to expect delays. Some things were ordered two weeks ago. Who knows how the supply chain and delivery process will be impacted?

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
pbandy1 said:
how do you explain S. Korea's 0.7% mortality rate? if anything I would see that is a reliable number due to the sheer amount of testing they have done. Keep in mind, I am talking about the true mortality rate, not the mortality rate which may be increased (as in Italy) due to health care shortages.
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I've been arguing that since day one, but I have seen a decent argument that the higher rates are in places where hospitals get overwhelmed.  i.e. that BOTH #s turn out to be right.
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Exactly -- COVID's mortality rate (and hospitalization rate, for that matter) are not some immutable aspect of the virus' infection in a human population. Those rates are highly sensitive to localized paramaters, chiefly localized socio-behavioral response and, secondarily, localized access to necessary levels of healthcare.

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Jenan Moussa @jenanmoussa · 5h

Italy reported its biggest day-to-day jump in cases of #COVID19. 3497 new cases - a 20% increase in 24 hrs.

Authorities cited irresponsible behavior by citizens, who despite warnings headed to beaches or ski resorts, especially after closure of schools.

(Note that Italy has already been more or less entirely shut down for the last six days.)
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I don't get this. If everything is shut down how are they going to ski resorts and beaches?

 
So here are the house rules I am planning on rolling out - what am i missing?  This applies to me, my realtor wife, and two elementary/middle school aged daughters. I think its important to have the same expectation for my wife and myself as we have for the kids - we will get better buy-in if we are all following the same rules.

1. No meeting friends out as if you have a cough or fever.

2. It is Ok to meet friends outside:

   A. No going into friends house

   B. No friends in our house

   C. No sharing food or drinks

   D. No hugs, hand shakes, high 5s.

3. When you come into the house, immediately wash hands with soap and water.

4. Hand sanitizer before you get in the car when out and about (stores, work, showing houses).

5. Week days are to be spent doing work.  This is not vacation.

Beyond that, there are a few other changes I want us to make, but not worth codifying.  I want us to get out for walks and/or hikes more often.  Charlotte has lots of greenways around town - we should be taking advantage of that.  Good way to get out of the house, which will be really important to avoid cabin fever.  I will drastically cut back on screen time limitations, especially facetime.  Arts/crafts/reading will be encouraged. 

I still want us to be social - meet up with friends, to go out to eat and do things, just for us to be careful.

We will be sending out the above rules to the parents of our kids friends.  Hopefully they follow suit.  If all of the neighborhood families are operating under the same guidelines, i would fell a lot better about the kids playing. 

 
joffer said:
India seems to be fairing well so far, considering their population density.  Matter of time or did they implement early measures?
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they restricted overseas travel a week or so ago, iirc. they have also begun shutdown of the entertainment industry. they have begun to implement a strategy.

 
tamales said:
I don't get this. If everything is shut down how are they going to ski resorts and beaches?
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Those things weren't shut down at first.  Schools were closed and people were asked to stop unnecessary outings, but restaurants and etc weren't forced shut.  At least I think that's it.  

 
Doug B said:
One -- this information is old. Probably still largely accurate, but it's not new revelatory info.

Second -- that's still 1 in 500  infected 10- to 39-year succumbing to the virus.

Three -- the mortality rates aren't the point. Concentration on mortality rates is a big red herring.
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i would also caution that China data is likely misleading because of the strict measures taken in Wuhan. It's not truly reflective of the situation.

 
Politician Spock said:
On average, someone infected with the covid-19 virus will infect 10+ other people.
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Maybe an R10 has happened locally in some hot spots ... but where did this information come from?

 
So I was a friend's house last night - restaurant (3 site) owner, with a young daughter at home. Mid meal she gets a text from the daughter's school (private, not sure if it matters, but it's common down here) saying that a father of a girl in the daughter's class is in critical condition at a local well known hospital with CV.

The child's school already just Friday went to online classes. My friend anticipates quarantining herself. Any thoughts on how to proceed?

 
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My wife works in healthcare and gets live updates, notifications, and is part of medical and nursing networks. Healthcare facilities are currently overrun with people getting tested and there are way more cases than are being reported. Hospitals are keeping the media away from what is really happening. The situation is already BAD. And it’s going to get REALLY,  REALLY BAD. Just heard about an 18 year old that likely is not going to make it. 

 
 
parasaurolophus said:
Cant get this stuff anywhere. Cant even get rubbing alcohol to make my own. I have always used a lot of the stuff and I am down to my last bottle. 

Alcohol is expected to be effective against this thing, what about some of the others? 
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You can support a family owned farm. Choice of scents too.

Goatmilkstuff.com/hand

Ps. Their lotion sticks are the bomb and last forever. 0 water. Soaps last a very long time too. I found them when I was diagnosed with cancer. 

 
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IvanKaramazov said:
Over just the last few pages, I've seen two FBGs admit that their alcohol supplies are already running low, and now we've got somebody resorting to consuming Busch.  Has the membership of this place really gone that far downhill, or has it always been like this and nobody every really noticed?
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When people have been talking about their alcohol stocks in this thread ... up until a few days ago, I thought it was all largely in jest. "Ho ho, I need a few handles to get past this stress!" But I have since seen that I am mistaken -- some people have been totally serious that alcohol is a "need" for their day-to-day existence, even now.

It's not my place to preach to grown men and women, and I won't start now. I'd be a hypocrite, anyway -- I've experienced my own binge-drinking days and I'm very lucky to have come out the other side intact. Plus, I have my own ... strong cravings ... that I give into even in current circumstances. And so it goes ... the human condition: we all strive to cope.

 
Terminalxylem said:
There's a COVID tent with 40 extra "beds" set up outside the hospital in which I work. Unfortunately, business is booming.
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According to the news there are only a handful of cases in your state. Is the real situation not being reported on?

 
Perfect time to unleash BIG. Basic Income Guarantee.  Print some 10 trillion $ coins, Treasury Dept prints them off, sends to the Federal Reserve and says it's all paid for. Yes 10T coins and lots of them.

 
Anarchy99 said:
My wife works in healthcare and gets live updates, notifications, and is part of medical and nursing networks. Healthcare facilities are currently overrun with people getting tested and there are way more cases than are being reported. Hospitals are keeping the media away from what is really happening. The situation is already BAD. And it’s going to get REALLY,  REALLY BAD. Just heard about an 18 year old that likely is not going to make it. 
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This sounds incredibly unlikely to me.

 
culdeus said:
Yeah. Know several people at resorts and they aren't letting anyone even check in.  
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While understandable, this was a rather large bummer as both my Niece and Nephew were competing in the US Freestyle Mogul Jr. Nationals this weekend at Winter Park.  They got the individuals in on Fri and yesterday; but the duals for today were cancelled and they basically ordered everyone home after yesterdays events.

 
Politician Spock said:
mr roboto said:
Where are you seeing a R0 of 10+?!?

Ive heard 2.2-3. 
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From: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1

The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10) associated with 0-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. With rising report rate, the mean R0 is likely to be below 5 but above 3.
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People are upset that sporting events and such are being cancelled. Put an infected person into a sporting event crowd, and they will easily infect 10+ people. 
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I'm a few pages behind, so excuse me, but:

The high end of the confidence interval was not 10, but 7.10 -- see above. If you were making a guesstimate extrapolation based on presumed crowd exposure ... then OK, but you should caveat a suggested R0 as high as R10.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
So I was a friend's house last night - restaurant (3 site) owner, with a young daughter at home. Mid meal she gets a text from the daughter's school (private, not sure if it matters, but it's common down here) saying that a father of a girl in the daughter's class is in critical condition at a local well known hospital with CV.

The child's school already just Friday went to online classes. My friend anticipates quarantining herself. Any thoughts on how to proceed?
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Very sorry to hear.

And this is also why EVERYONE NEEDS TO STOP MEETING WITH OTHER PEOPLE.

No dinners or get togethers. No gym. Stop sending your kids to school even if they haven't closed.

Not to pile on you, but it's this same story that keeps coming up and will continue with increasing frequency until we just stay home. No exceptions. Full stop.

It sucks but just deal with the social isolation for a few weeks and let's work together to get this under control. This thing is everywhere now. The only interaction you can control is your own. 

We are seeing what happens if you don't elsewhere and just repeating the same mistakes. It's so frustrating.

 
Capella said:
They have to. This country is chock full of stupid people not willing to be reasoned with. 
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Yep. There's a restaurant in my small town that in response to the schools being closed for 3 weeks is offering a kids eat free promotion when accompanied with parents.... offer only good for dine in only. 

:wall:

 
Doug B said:
I'm a few pages behind, so excuse me, but:

The high end of the confidence interval was not 10, but 7.10 -- see above. If you were making a guesstimate extrapolation based on presumed crowd exposure ... then OK, but you should caveat a suggested R0 as high as R10.
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Again, once we observed Italy's hospital system become overwhelmed, then the accuracy of that number is moot. Even if it is as low as 2.2, it still produces a result we need to avoid. 

 
Time for a national lock down before things get out of hand. Everything should be closed, everyone stays home except necessary personnel. Unless you’re going to a necessary job, grocery store or hospital, you are mandated to stay home. It’s gonna come to that in a week, do it now ahead of the curve.

 
There is zero point in half arsing things. You either lock down or you don’t. Closing some things and leaving restaurants, bars, ski slopes etc open is beyond stupid. Do it now, rip the bandaid off and things down the road will be a lot better much quicker.

 
lod001 said:
Agreed, that info would get out in this age of social media.
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I believe the devil is in the details. Lots and lots of tests now getting done now and patients being admitted as presumptive positive. But those cases are not counted as confirmed infected yet. Not saying they won’t be counted, just not counted yet. Places in Massachusetts out of masks are trying to sanitize and reuse the ones they have. 

 
fruity pebbles said:
Time for a national lock down before things get out of hand. Everything should be closed, everyone stays home except necessary personnel. Unless you’re going to a necessary job, grocery store or hospital, you are mandated to stay home. It’s gonna come to that in a week, do it now ahead of the curve.
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As the saying goes, we are only as strong as our weakest link, and with how many people continue to have there heads stuck in the sand, we have a lot of weak links. Everyday, I get closer and closer to realizing that a massive shut down cannot be avoided. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
I believe the devil is in the details. Lots and lots of tests now getting done now and patients being admitted as presumptive positive. But those cases are not counted as confirmed infected yet. Not saying they won’t be counted, just not counted yet. Places in Massachusetts out of masks are trying to sanitize and reuse the ones they have. 
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Yeah, we were told to reuse our masks through multiple operating room cases for all personnel not right at the field. Nurse, anesthesiologist etc. 

 
Politician Spock said:
As the saying goes, we are only as strong as our weakest link, and with how many people continue to have there heads stuck in the sand, we have a lot of weak links. Everyday, I get closer and closer to realizing that a massive shut down cannot be avoided. 
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It can’t. Too many people doing whatever they want and others willing to accommodate them. Massive fines will keep people home.

 
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Courtjester said:
Thinking about signing up for Nutrisystem--30 days of meals for $275.00 and that would eliminate a lot of the worry about going to the store for food at least. I would probably order two sets of this and not necessarily follow the plan, but it would  be a supplement to the food I have already bought for my wife and daughter. 
Click to expand...
Good idea but UPS and FedEx are shuttering operations in some parts of the country. 

 
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