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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)

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Tom Skerritt said:
Educated estimates by smart people are saying that a 0.6% mortality rate is what we can expect when this is all over.
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I like that.  I was saying 1.0% when a lot of people in here was saying 3.5%.  Now I'm starting to think it's lower than 1.0% and that's all I'm trying to say.

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
YES YOU CAN.  If it takes a while for people to die. Stop spreading misinformation.
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Or you can stop fear mongering.

Tom Skerritt said:
Educated estimates by smart people are saying that a 0.6% mortality rate is what we can expect when this is all over.
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tonydead said:
I like that.  I was saying 1.0% when a lot of people in here was saying 3.5%.  Now I'm starting to think it's lower than 1.0% and that's all I'm trying to say.
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Jobber said:
It seems the WHO is saying there is no concrete evidence that taking ibuprofen can worsen the symptoms. I understand where they're coming from, not having a nice long term study done to confirm one way or another. The problem is, when said study is done, it's going to be way to ####### late. So yeah, I'm going to err on the side of the French advice on this one since I've got a 500 pill bottle of Tylenol in my cupboard. 
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I'm the opposite ... I've got the 1,000-pill bottle of ibuprofen in my cabinet :D   Though my wife has a half-full big bottle of Tylenol (unsure of quantity, but the bottle is about the size of a Coke can with the top 1/3 chopped off.

My wife also saw something on Facebook about "Stop taking elderberry stuff because it's an anti-inflammatory NSAID and you can't take NSAIDs or else your immune system goes to pot!" All this after imploring me to buy elderberry gummies last weekend :wall:  The gummies I bought also have zinc and I think Vitamin D ... yeah, it's snake oil BS but they're great placebos.

 
the moops said:
And seriously folks, if there is ever a time to err on the side of caution, it is in the case of a ####### pandemic. If it turns out that the mortality rate is lower than expected, great. All we lost was some commuting to work and workign for the man and some lack of hanging out with friends. 
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Really? Seems like we're losing our retirement funds, people are losing their jobs, and others are losing their small business. 

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
YES YOU CAN.  If it takes a while for people to die. Stop spreading misinformation.
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I don't mean to jump in the middle on what appears to be an ongoing argument.  I have a question though - how does the parameter of not having beds/ventilators play in to the death rate calculation or does it?  Meaning - do they just take that factor out and if so, how much do we think that is impacting numbers?  I'm assuming in Italy for sure - and we will expect it to happen here in the U.S. in the upcoming weeks, correct?

 
Doug B said:
People should keep in mind ... even Wuhan during it's most stringent lockdown didn't 100% close down. They probably got it to maybe a 98% closedown, and maybe the best that can be done in the U.S. would be a 90% closedown.
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Right I understand that, but from the list I saw last night of businesses that are allowed to stay open here.....I was quite surprised

 
Politician Spock said:
A high infection rate, say 70%, with a 0.5% death rate, results in 1.2 million American deaths. That's not fear mongering. That's just simple math. 
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Agree.  The fear mongering he was doing was claiming that death rate is wrong or unknown.   Simple math 3.5% death rate at 70% is 8.4 million.  I fully support driving down the infection rate that we have most control over.

 
Mr. Ham said:
Okay, this has really hit close to home. My computer illiterate grandma was freaking out because she was low on the crazy expensive special urinary track food for her cat. So ordered it on Amazon. It arrived in 5.8 ounce cans, and she expected the 2.9 ounce. She left a message freaking out because she has to send them back but has no ideas how. :lmao:
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We reached out to some older folks in the community to see if any of them need any essentials. One of the responses was yes, two cases of Evian water. :lmao:

 
Koya said:
I don't believe we disagree as much as you think.  Not sure if my point is being poorly communicated or not, but I'll try to clarify.

You suggested that the folks in the hospitality industry "get another job" - that's 15 MILLION people.  My contention is WHAT other job will they get? It has nothing to do with willingness to work, which seems to be what you suggest (almost every one of my friends is looking to do anything, that includes stocking shelves, and they'd be ecstatic to get $15 bucks an hour for it right now - they are also busting their asses trying to come up with innovative ways to make some scratch.  One-on-one video or in person cocktail making tips, private server or bartending services while people are camped up at home... but that doesn't work for even the best of servers, who can make $60-150k a year).

My point is willing or not, there are $15 million people, mostly unemployed / furloughed right now.  There will be what, a few hundred thousand temporary jobs at Costco, WalMart, Grocery chains?  What do you suggest for the other 10 or so million?

You seem to assume these people aren't willing to work stocking shelves. They are.  That was my point, that you don't seem to understand the reality of how certain industries (hospitality in this case) are being hit.  There are very few other jobs to go to, and other than what we agree upon re: stocking shelves, which is limited in number, almost no one is hiring.

To your last point, I agree  THOUSAND percent.  These people work hard. Harder than most I know.  Often 15 hour days.  They deserve a living wage.  Not only deserve it, but for the economic standing of our nation, we have made ourselves WEAK because our economy is in no position to withstand any such jolt as we are seeing today. Because folks have low wages, multiple jobs, too much $$ spent on housing and transportation (and what is left is spent too often on materialism fed by the constant push of commercialism and greed in our nation) AND no health insurance.  The result is what we see now...

When there are no - or very few - other jobs available, there is no outlet.  Even for folks willing to work as hard as anyone.

Hope that helps clarify my point. 
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I think we pretty much agree on the issues, but maybe not completely on the responsibility.

There needs to be some level of accountability for people who "live paycheck to paycheck".  Thats not a healthy lifesyste.  If thats the case for 15million people, those people situations need to change.  There are tons of people living within their means but without an amazing lifestyle.  This is because they make hard choices.  People need a lifestyle for which they can save for.  They need to be able to save 3-6 months of income.  If they cant save like that if they cant figure out how to prepare, we have a problem.

I say all this because I do not believe it is the govt responsibility to be the life-jacket for every person in the country who is living beyond their means.  Specifically, if folks cant make it 1-2 months without a job and only unemployment benefits, they need to change their lifestyle and not ask for more money from the govt.  First, its not fair to the rest of the tax payers, secondly, its a real burden to the folks who really do need the help.

People need to figure out how to live within their means.  If they cant, there needs to be accountability when situations like this happen.  Its not as simple as "give me more pie".

Thanks for the conversation.

 
tonydead said:
Agree.  The fear mongering he was doing was claiming that death rate is wrong or unknown.   Simple math 3.5% death rate at 70% is 8.4 million.  I fully support driving down the infection rate that we have most control over.
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The death rate is unknown. 0.5% is a very conservative estimate right now.  

 
Redwes25 said:
Can we avoid rumors like this.  We see articles, etc. lets post them but not word of mouth rumors.  
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I like the rumors, please keep them, as long as they are well meaning.  That's why they are called rumors BTW.  No one is trying to pass them along as facts.  Let people interpret them appropriately.

 
A treasure trove of worthwhile links and studies published by the UK government for the general public ... probably would be better in the OP if possible ( @FBG Moderator ? )

...

Coronavirus (COVID-19): scientific evidence supporting the UK government response (UK.gov, 3/20/2020)

The national and global response to the spread of COVID-19 continues to develop quickly and our collective knowledge of the virus is growing by the second.

...

About halfway down that page -- all items asterisked are links to various studies and white papers:

View the scientific evidence supporting the government response to COVID-19

This page will be updated on a regular basis with the latest available evidence provided to SAGE.

Introduction to the evidence

* Coronavirus (COVID-19): scientific evidence supporting the UK government response

Current understanding of COVID-19

* SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on 2019 novel coronavirus (2 March 2020) (PDF, 104KB, 4 pages)

Behavioural and social interventions

* Potential effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on a COVID-19 epidemic in the UK (26 February 2020) (PDF, 156KB, 3 pages)
* SPI-B insights on combined behavioural and social interventions (4 March 2020) (PDF, 193KB, 4 pages)
* Potential impact of behavioural and social interventions on an epidemic of COVID-19 in the UK (9 March 2020) (PDF, 319KB, 7 pages)
* SPI-M-O: Consensus view on behavioural and social interventions (16 March 2020) (PDF, 43.4KB, 1 page)

Behavioural science

* The role of behavioural science in the coronavirus outbreak (14 March 2020) (PDF, 178KB, 3 pages)
* SPI-B: Return on risk of public disorder (25 February 2020) (PDF, 153KB, 2 pages)
* SPI-B: Evidence list (6 March 2020) (PDF, 116KB, 4 pages)

Self-isolation and household isolation

* SPI-B: Insights on self-isolation and household isolation (09 March 2020) (PDF, 168KB, 2 pages)
* SPI-M-O: Consensus view on the impact of mass school closures (19 February 2020) (PDF, 289KB, 4 pages)

Mass gatherings

* SPI-M-O: Consensus view on public gatherings (11 February 2020) (PDF, 90.2KB, 1 page)
* SPI-B: Insights on public gatherings (12 March 2020) (PDF, 173KB, 3 pages)

Modelling inputs

* Emerging evidence about COVID-19
* Emergence of a novel coronavirus (COVID-19); A protocol for extending surveillance used by the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) and Public Health England (PHE)
* Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study* Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths
* Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts
* Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease
* Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions
* Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices
* A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing
* The efficacy of contact tracing for the containment of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19)

Reports from Imperial College London

* Epidemic size estimation in Wuhan City
* Epidemic size estimation in Wuhan City - update
* Transmissibility of COVID-19
* Severity of COVID-19
* Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2
* Relative sensitivity of international surveillance
* Infection prevalence estimated from repatriation flights
* Symptom progression of COVID-19

The models

* BBC dataset
* POLYMOD

Specific pieces of modelling on interventions provided to SAGE

* Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand

 
JAA said:
I like the rumors, please keep them, as long as they are well meaning.  That's why they are called rumors BTW.  No one is trying to pass them along as facts.  Let people interpret them appropriately.
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We need a "dislike" button. Factual information is critical in times like these. The more rumors spread facts get drowned out and people start rejecting information.

 
tonydead said:
I'm not claiming an exact number, but, I was absolutely correct last time and some very smart people apparently agree with me this time.
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You didn't claim an exact number, but you were claiming that it either has to be a low number or it must not be spreading as fast as we fear.  That's what I pushed back on. 

 
tonydead said:
Agree.  The fear mongering he was doing was claiming that death rate is wrong or unknown.   Simple math 3.5% death rate at 70% is 8.4 million.  I fully support driving down the infection rate that we have most control over.
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Mortality rate will go down once we start testing

 
JAA said:
I like the rumors, please keep them, as long as they are well meaning.  That's why they are called rumors BTW.  No one is trying to pass them along as facts.  Let people interpret them appropriately.
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My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who saw Ferris pass out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it's pretty serious.

 
trader jake said:
It won't be long until all non-essential businesses are closed nationwide - with the National Guard used to enforce the edict.

If non-essential supplies are needed and you have the ability to do so...I'd get them as soon as possible.  Good luck out there all - be safe.
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Trump right now:  Doesn't think we will find it necessary for a nation wide shutdown.

 
AAABatteries said:
I don't mean to jump in the middle on what appears to be an ongoing argument.  I have a question though - how does the parameter of not having beds/ventilators play in to the death rate calculation or does it?  Meaning - do they just take that factor out and if so, how much do we think that is impacting numbers?  I'm assuming in Italy for sure - and we will expect it to happen here in the U.S. in the upcoming weeks, correct?
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It plays into it a ton.

If every single critical COVID patient could get billion-dollar care and have an entire ICU's staff thrown at their individual minute-by-minute care, the mortality rate would probably be tiny.

If, on the other hand, a lot of critical COVID patients end up in overrun healthcare systems and only get piecemeal care part of the time from exhausted, distracted healthcare providers ... then the mortality rate soars.

This is why I think conceiving of "mortality rate" as an intrinsic aspect of COVID is a giant mistake. "COVID only kills a low %!" No, not really -- a bunch of factors that stem from having COVID kills greater or fewer patients. Highly situational and sensitive to local healthcare conditions.

 
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Murph said:
We need a "dislike" button. Factual information is critical in times like these. The more rumors spread facts get drowned out and people start rejecting information.
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What makes something factual?  Is it really hard to understand when someone says "I heard" that it means its a rumor?  It doesnt matter who they heard it from.

 
tonydead said:
Trump right now:  Doesn't think we will find it necessary for a nation wide shutdown.
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Good. We're past the point of an overreaction to this.

Let's ride this out now for another week or until end of March and then start rolling back these closings/shutdowns. 

We're doing much more harm with our restrictions/closings/shutdowns/etc than the coronavirus is actually doing.

 
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Murph said:
Is the bolded a serious question?
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Yes.

If my wife works for the govt and tells me something she actually heard at work, is that not factual?

Is there an authoritative voice of facts somewhere?  Is it Wikipedia?  Is it encyclopedia Britannica?  Where is the book of facts which we get our information from?

Is there anything factual on CNN and/or FOXNEWS?  Is it twitter?  Is it snapchat, facebook, tik tok, vine?  Seriously, Id like to know where I can get the facts.

 
JAA said:
There needs to be some level of accountability for people who "live paycheck to paycheck".  That's not a healthy lifestyle.  If that's the case for 15 million people, those people situations need to change.  There are tons of people living within their means but without an amazing lifestyle.  This is because they make hard choices.  People need a lifestyle for which they can save for.  They need to be able to save 3-6 months of income.  If they cant save like that if they cant figure out how to prepare, we have a problem.
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I don't think it's realistic to even have one in 20 people in a given society to achieve this without immense outside interference in personal lives. People, as a collective, don't work like that. No, not everyone can do it. Like all human endeavors, not everyone has the same capacity.

 
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