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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (15 Viewers)

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NotSmart said:
The PPE situation is a national tragedy - it is already in the process of costing lives.

However the preppers are not the ones to blame - they bought their masks from retail.

The Federal government is responsible for planning for disasters such as a pandemic, ensuring an adequate national stockpile of essential PPE, and having detailed plans ready to go for increasing PPE purchasing and production when disasters occur or are anticipated.
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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-medical-face-masks-auctioneer-suing-coronavirus/

 
Otis said:
Not sure what makes people think this isn’t the case. 
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because the authorities had to send a helicopter into the closed, county nature preserve, right by my house and tell everyone to go the #### home?

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Some detailed thoughts on the model the WH is promoting.

These assumptions in particular seem overly sunny:

So the model the WH is using assumes that the entire US will be using the equivalent of Wuhan-level countermeasures  by next weekend.
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I haven’t dug into their methodology really at all but based on that thread it seems they are using curve fitting to capture the phenomenological trends rather than use something more mechanistic or first principles. That’s has me concerned already. 

Birx seemed to align with its general predictions, I suspect, because the midpoint estimate of US deaths was under 100k and perhaps less alarming to the public. She specifically drew contrast to other models that were much more dire. Maybe it’s just my impression but she’s seemed to be much more willing to downplay the potential for this getting way out of hand. 

 
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Ilov80s said:
A member of the Michigan House of Reps passed away this morning from COVID. His mom took him to the hospital at 6 AM as he was having trouble breathing. He was dead by 11 AM at the age of 44.
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Tragic. I wish HIPAA didn't prohibit them from telling us if these people had any pre-existing conditions.

 
shader said:
You gotta go local if you want historicals.  Worldometers has some great charts but doesn’t break it down by state historically. 
 

I’m  sure someone in your area is charting it.  I have a friend who has a great excel spreadsheet for TN. 
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I'd love the sheet for TN please 

 
Flying Elvis said:
I don't think there's any actual count. I assume the "90%" is kind of a Steven Wright statistic. The reality is you should reduce your trips to supply runs that limit the number of stores you go to and the number of interactions you have to a minimum. 

Pretend you have the virus and you don't want to infect those in your community. Less contact means slower spread which helps slow the demand for hospitalization and critical care so your local healthcare system doesn't get overwhelmed. We are simply buying time for our neighborhood hospitals to prepare for a surge and see COVID-19 patients at a more manageable rate.
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 Correct.  I think most would be overjoyed if 100% of the population did this or even limited there contact and exposure to 70-80% what they usually did. 

But like I said, when people are talking about 90% in here, I don't think this is what they mean.  I think people are talking about 90% of us (I would even argue this) are taking it seriously and and trying to follow protocol and suggestions.  Problem is that the others seem to be taking little to no precautions.  

IMO what I think it's more like is: (keep in mind I am just throwing out numbers from what I see around here and what people are talking about)

A decent number seem to really be hunkering down - say 20-30% of us limiting our exposure to work if that and the occasional food run, so maybe they are at 90% normal exposure.

A larger portion mostly on board, especially with huge groups, but mostly because they don't have a choice.  However, they are still meeting friends and family, taking more trips than essential, less likely to social distance and wipe things down, etc..  IMO this is what the majority I see fall into.   Maybe this this 600-70% of the population and they are at 60-70% normal exposure.  

That leaves the remainding 10% (and I think this is low), still operating like nothing is happening - going to the beach, church, having a party, whatever.    This is the huge problem since these people then also infect a bunch of people at these gatherings, who then go out and are in contact with people in the above categories at work or at the store, etc.. 

 
Non-China Reported Cases

2/7 - 277 reported cases

2/12 - 490 reported cases

2/17 - 893 reported cases -  5 dead 

2/22 - 1,834 reported cases - 19 dead

2/26 - 3,650 reported cases - 57 dead

2/29 - 7,155 reported cases - 109 dead - USA 68 cases - 1 dead

3/5 - 17,353 reported cases - 344 dead - USA 210 cases - 12 dead

3/9 - 33,303 reported cases - 881 dead - USA 628 cases - 26 dead

3/13 - 64,567 reported cases - 2,239 dead - USA 2,269 cases - 48 dead

3/18 - 138,059 reported cases - 5,715 dead - USA 9,301 cases - 152 dead

3/22 - 255,584 reported cases - 11,350 dead - USA 33,346 cases - 414 dead

3/27 - 514,956 reported cases - 24,048 dead - USA 104,126 cases - 1,695 dead

3/28 - 581,528 reported cases - 27,551 dead - USA 123,428 cases - 2,211 dead - (515 deaths today)

3/29 - 640,507 reported cases - 30,666 dead - USA 142,047 cases - 2,484 dead - (273 deaths today)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-J_vry7rclLIGooJ-Cu7OFH8rRRjB51lz1iGkwcTETc/edit#gid=0

 
Just got back from trader joes. Got there half hour before they close. 4th in line to get in. Seems best time to go is half hour before stores close in the evening when the herd are home eating dinner.

 
France, Spain and Italy all had declines today per Worldometer. A glimmer of good news that will hopefully continue there. Keep up the stringent measures and the hope for them and for everyone.

 
I think this is going to be a weird week.  Daily cases in the USA are going to increase at a lesser rate than last week, possibly by a dramatic margin.  That's due to the fact that most of the increases in the past week have been BS and fueled by the fact that we have barely got the testing off the ground.

I would ordinarily think that the deaths are going to skyrocket this week.  Based on everything we know, they should go up this week.  But I suppose there's nothing wrong with going to bed tonight, looking at the dramatic drop-off in deaths today in the USA and hoping that there is in fact some treatment or something that's helping the numbers. 

 
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DMXATF23 said:
Have a buddy in the ICU...they lost his first test.

yes, THEY LOST HIS TEST.
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Hoping for a full recovery. ❤️

This video call (posted by someone else earlier today) by a NYC Dr. mentioned most of these patients recover and are sent home, though it can take 5-14 days depending on severity. The honest truth is that the staff at the hospital already know if it'll come back positive and the result doesn't change the treatment. You and said buddy should do your best to push the test results off the list of things to stress about, as hard as that may be. It really changes nothing about what your buddy is going through. 

 
DMXATF23 said:
Have a buddy in the ICU...they lost his first test.

yes, THEY LOST HIS TEST.
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Happened to my friend in NJ, 1st they wouldn't test him, then 2 days later he was very ill and they tested him. 9 days later they called him and said they lost his test and he had to be retested. When they finally told him he was positive he had beaten it 4 days prior.

Link

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
France, Spain and Italy all had declines today per Worldometer. A glimmer of good news that will hopefully continue there. Keep up the stringent measures and the hope for them and for everyone.
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Yes all 3 have had pretty strict quarantines for over 2 weeks (3 for Italy) and are now showing the good results of that.  I have no idea where we go from here or whether their quarantine measures are enough for them to track like China did, but we have to celebrate what they've done!

 
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shader said:
I think this is going to be a weird week.  Daily cases in the USA are going to increase at a lesser rate than last week, possibly by a dramatic margin.  That's due to the fact that most of the increases in the past week have been BS and fueled by the fact that we have barely got the testing off the ground.

I would ordinarily think that the deaths are going to skyrocket this week.  Based on everything we know, they should go up bigtime this week.  But I suppose there's nothing wrong with going to bed tonight, looking at the dramatic drop-off in deaths today in the USA and hoping that there is in fact some treatment or something that's helping the numbers. 
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Choose this route, my man. There are some of the most brilliant minds in the world working day and night to fight this thing. They're innovative. They're going to get some therapies figured out that hopefully will curb the fatalities sooner rather than later. Have faith-- you'll sleep much better.

 
gruecd said:
Tragic. I wish HIPAA didn't prohibit them from telling us if these people had any pre-existing conditions.
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To elaborate, I genuinely want to understand how concerned I need to be personally (not as a carrier) as a fit, healthy, 43-yo marathon runner. 

Judging from pictures, Rep. Robinson from Michigan looks to have been quite overweight, which means it's also quite possible that he might have had high blood pressure, asthma, and/or diabetes.

How many healthy people under age 50/60 are dying from this?

 
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Mr Anonymous said:
Apparently chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are working...

The FDA has issued an emergency use authorization for chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine to treat patients hospitalized with Covid-19.

I doubt they take this next step without additional data piling up on the positive side.
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The optimist reads the headline and assumes that they must have had lots of positive data piling up.

The realist reads the actual story, sees that they've only authorized "limited use" -- and only from preexisting stockpiles -- and makes no such assumptions.

 
[scooter] said:
The optimist reads the headline and assumes that they must have had lots of positive data piling up.

The realist reads the actual story, sees that they've only authorized "limited use" -- and only from preexisting stockpiles -- and makes no such assumptions.
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Counterpoint: They probably wouldn't waste time with this if they weren't encouraged by the early results they're seeing on the ground.

 
RnR said:
[scooter] said:
The optimist reads the headline and assumes that they must have had lots of positive data piling up.

The realist reads the actual story, sees that they've only authorized "limited use" -- and only from preexisting stockpiles -- and makes no such assumptions.
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Counterpoint: They probably wouldn't waste time with this if they weren't encouraged by the early results they're seeing on the ground.
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It doesn't seem like it's a matter of "being encouraged"; it seems like it's more a matter of "not being discouraged".

In other words, as long as the treatment has no negative effects, then they'll say "Sure, go ahead and authorize limited use of existing stockpiles."

 
RnR said:
Counterpoint: They probably wouldn't waste time with this if they weren't encouraged by the early results they're seeing on the ground.
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Yep. And I believe that's exactly what I said.

What @[scooter] apparently doesn't realize is that when the FDA does this, it paves the way for drug companies to either donate or manufacture more of the drug(s) in question. It's far from a nothing step. But whatever, some people just don't seem to want good news.

 
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[scooter] said:
It doesn't seem like it's a matter of "being encouraged"; it seems like it's more a matter of "not being discouraged".

In other words, as long as the treatment has no negative effects, then they'll say "Sure, go ahead and authorize limited use of existing stockpiles."
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Yeah no, it's much more than that. It's basically a call for all hands on deck. The FDA is clearing the way for more of the drug.

Why are you so eager for this drug to fail?

 
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Thanks for the simulation Adonis,  two key takeaways for me are the dangers of these central locations and how effective it is to take infected people away.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
[scooter] said:
It doesn't seem like it's a matter of "being encouraged"; it seems like it's more a matter of "not being discouraged".

In other words, as long as the treatment has no negative effects, then they'll say "Sure, go ahead and authorize limited use of existing stockpiles."
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Yeah no, it's much more than that. It's basically a call for all hands on deck. The FDA is clearing the way for more of the drug.

Why are you so eager for this drug to fail?
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I'm not eager for the drug to fail. What a disgusting thing to say.

 
CurlyNight said:
Just got back from trader joes. Got there half hour before they close. 4th in line to get in. Seems best time to go is half hour before stores close in the evening when the herd are home eating dinner.
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The only problem was the cashiers chatting it up. My dude wiped his nose on his sleeve. I stood as far back as I could but still could feel a little of his airstream. They need to wear masks or not talk. 🙄

 
RnR said:
Interesting snippet in there: "Three officials told POLITICO that FDA’s planned move would facilitate more access to the drug by allowing more manufacturers to produce or donate it."
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I thought the more important line was “Career scientists have been skeptical of the effort, noting the lack of data on the drug’s efficacy for coronavirus care”

 
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