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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
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McBokonon
Footballguy
That Discomfort You're Feeling Is Grief.
I'm tempted to start a thread with this so it doesn't get buried, but I found this to be pretty grounding.
I'm tempted to start a thread with this so it doesn't get buried, but I found this to be pretty grounding.
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McBokonon
Footballguy
Otis
Footballguy
This still confuses me. Why are infections set to skyrocket/keep increasing? Most of us are locked in our homes. How is that even going to happen at this point? Seems to me we should be hitting the peak real soon and on our way down.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Gonna risk it and go to a local brewer for some Crowlers
I'm still getting stuff about in the same time, just not guaranteed. No chance would I complain given the situation and how much Amazon is needed to move supplies.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
That is what I am thinking.
I am not donating them. I have 4 masks that are probably 3 years old. And there are 4 people in my house. I didn’t hoard them or buy them for this situation. I have 60 rolls of TP too because amazon subscription services lull you to sleep, not because I ordered any during this outbreak.
If a neighbor needed any of the above, I would certainly help though.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Last time I went to the grocery store was 2 weeks ago. And it was a small local store. There was a line outside and they let all of us in. The only distancing took place when we were in line. Otherwise I was just as close to people as any other day.
I used a nasal sanitizer called Nozin before I went but not gloves or masks. Some people had them. If I went now I would wear both.
What about when going to get takeout or curbside pickup?
JaxBill
Footballguy
@michael_nielsen: Bill Gates is setting up factories to manufacture 7 leading vaccine candidates before we know which is best & safest; we can test the vaccines in parallel, and then throw away all but the factory for the best vaccine. May save many months.
Just extraordinary. https://twitter.com/michael_nielsen/status/1246457825720553472/photo/1
Just extraordinary. https://twitter.com/michael_nielsen/status/1246457825720553472/photo/1
Nipsey
Footballguy
But we're not all locked down. Just read this thread. Or watch the news. Some states just carrying on with minimal restrictions. In states that are locked down a good portion aren't taking it seriously. Farmers market near me packed just this week. There are no national restrictions so some areas of the country are free to do what they want. The city pool isn't clean when there's a certain part of it where you can pee freely.
Doug B
Footballguy
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
From Worldometer, re: Italy
4805 new cases and 681 new deaths in Italy. The number of patients hospitalized in intensive care has declined for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic in Italy
The target of bringing down the reproductive number (R0) to 1 has been reached. Now the goal is to bring it below 1. Earlier in the epidemic, it was as high as 3. This value represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus. An epidemic with a reproductive number below 1 will gradually disappear
An estimated 30,000 lives have been saved as an effect of the lockdown measures, according to Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS)
4805 new cases and 681 new deaths in Italy. The number of patients hospitalized in intensive care has declined for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic in Italy
The target of bringing down the reproductive number (R0) to 1 has been reached. Now the goal is to bring it below 1. Earlier in the epidemic, it was as high as 3. This value represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus. An epidemic with a reproductive number below 1 will gradually disappear
An estimated 30,000 lives have been saved as an effect of the lockdown measures, according to Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS)
skol asylum
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
People think this is a risk ... but aside from a “direct hit” sneeze/cough, what could possibly be the danger from a quick passing?
Not buying into the “spreads by breathing & talking” thing yet, regardless of what the CDC has put out.
Nipsey
Footballguy
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
That’s why looking at the country as a whole isn’t really the best approach. This is a regional situation (statewide is a good proxy but even upstate and downstate N.Y. will be different, as will south FL and north FL likely), and how different regions handle the lockdown measures will make a big difference. Look at Washington state, for example. They locked down earlier and had better compliance. The people there went from traveling several miles per day on average to 70 feet per day on average. And their numbers are bearing that out.
Politician Spock
Footballguy
Rule of thumb... if I am close enough to smell a fart, then I am close enough to catch COVID-19.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
MO and AL issues stay at home orders.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
Presser on now.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
This is a good site for keeping track of NY specific statistics. It tracks cases, hospitalizations and deaths down to the county level.
Source for NY data
At this point, IMO the most important stat is hospitalizations. Specifically new hospitalizations vs. discharged patients. Yesterday there were 1100 new hospitalizations and 1600 discharges.
There are indications that NY is approaching the apex. Which it will stay at for 2-3 weeks, maybe 4, before the declines start kicking in.
Hang in there because NYers are overall smart and tough and we’ll get through it. I believe shaming those IRL who don’t follow can be effective. People need to toughen up a bit, “sorry if I hurt your feelings but you’re being a moron” is a N.Y. state of mind.
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skol asylum
Footballguy
Possibly a dumb question, but how do you remove these things safely? They go up over your head right? Isn't the point of a mask to not touch it when you remove it. That is via the elastic? I know these things are all more for protecting others but I'd be struggling trying to remove it properly.
CurlyNight
Footballguy
Fake news? I watch what the doctors are saying, scientists. It's going to get bad. Then he criticises media for saying the same thing and backing it up by facts. Idiot
trader jake
Footballguy
NotSmart
Footballguy
No one knows yet how much or how little C19 spreads by breathing or talking.
Intuitively it feels like the risk is minimal... anecdotally there are plenty of stories worth giving thought to, e.g. the church where a lot of people that were singing together later tested positive.
We won't know the true answer for quite a while.
While I'm not consumed with fear about contracting C19, I sure as heck want to do everything I can to avoid catching it for as long as possible... ideally I hope to avoid catching it all the way up until mitigating medicines and maybe a vaccine are developed.
For now, I especially want to do things that are simple to do, regardless of the as of yet unknown level of need for them:
It's also probably not a zero percent risk for any of the any of those actions.
It's all a matter of how much precaution people want to take, now, before they've contracted C19.
And remembering that contracting C19 doesn't just affect you, it affects anyone you live with or interact with, and it may take resources away from someone else at the hospital if you have to be hospitalized. You may also be permanently affected by C19 even after recovering from it.
Intuitively it feels like the risk is minimal... anecdotally there are plenty of stories worth giving thought to, e.g. the church where a lot of people that were singing together later tested positive.
We won't know the true answer for quite a while.
While I'm not consumed with fear about contracting C19, I sure as heck want to do everything I can to avoid catching it for as long as possible... ideally I hope to avoid catching it all the way up until mitigating medicines and maybe a vaccine are developed.
For now, I especially want to do things that are simple to do, regardless of the as of yet unknown level of need for them:
- Avoiding trips to any store unless 100% needed
- Wearing a mask if I do have to go into a store
- Letting mail, packages, and non-refrigerated groceries sit for a few days before accessing them.
- Not ordering take out food. I understand anyone that does because I'm sorely tempted myself, but it's another risk, even though it's believed to be very small.
It's also probably not a zero percent risk for any of the any of those actions.
It's all a matter of how much precaution people want to take, now, before they've contracted C19.
And remembering that contracting C19 doesn't just affect you, it affects anyone you live with or interact with, and it may take resources away from someone else at the hospital if you have to be hospitalized. You may also be permanently affected by C19 even after recovering from it.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
I might be crazy (really, this SAH stuff is driving me crazy), but part of me thinks that our lack of a strong lockdown will lead to things (like the NFL) opening back up quickly.
We're terrible at this. I live in a liberal state with SAH orders in place. I went to check on my shuttered business and work on some things today. On the way, I passed two furniture rental places open, corner stores packed, and a freaking poker machine game room open. Our definition of "essential" is wild. That's anecdotal, obviously, but looking at the Google movement data compared to other countries, we really, really suck at this.
I hope a stronger lockdown happens, I do. But I don't see it happening. I see a pretend lockdown going until about June 1st. At that point, we may be past the peak in a few (hopefully many) places, maybe in a place where hospitals have stocked up, and rampant testing in place.
But I fear one thing will be clear by then........that our version of lockdown isn't going to severely slow this down.
Maybe it's June 1st, but on some date, I have a feeling that we're going to get to a point where it's obvious a lockdown isn't working well and a the health crisis and massive death toll isn't going to be avoided, and it seems to make sense to just let it rip to save the economy.
At some point, I see the advice being wash your hands, wear a mask, go to work, and make sure your will is updated. I think a strong lockdown is absolutely sensible and crucial. Just considering where we might be down the road.
shader
Footballguy
Donald Trump, the reality star, literally has no idea what’s going on with the coronavirus. I’m 100% convinced there are 20 people in this thread that understand it better than him.
Thats not a political statement at all. He just doesn’t get it.
Take it to the canthelpyourself but to complain about everything Trump forum. TIA.
Sand
Footballguy
We've been under shelter in place orders for a while in AL. State govt. has actually been pretty proactive here - first restrictions hit the day of our first confirmed case.
Scary thing is Alabama is projected to have the highest mortality per capita in the US. Not sure how that was calculated.
Doug B
Footballguy
I understand where you're coming from. The CDC has not "shown their work" with the "spread by breathing" stuff. IMHO, there's a long, long way to go before anyone can experimentally establish spread via breath, or via the ambient air around a person, or anything like that.
I think the CDC is more in an "we can't rule it out, so abundance of caution" more than a "we have rock-hard unassailable evidence" stance regarding spread by breath. I can go with "barely possible in the most contrived of situations". Maybe an infected person breathing directly into my face really close up. But the quick grocery-store passes aren't like that. I've had a handful of "close passers" at the stores ... i turn my head or even my back to them as I pass at least 3-4 feet away. And I'm masked up.
Since the weekend of March 14-15, I have gone shopping twice without a mask (Mon 3/16 and Tues 3/17) but the stores were very slow both times.
EDIT: Looking at this article, at least some of the underpinning of "spread by breathing" is based on a study that never, ever postulated "spread by breathing" -- the Nebraska study mentioned mid-article, which is one we've dispatched of earlier in this thread:
Plus the Nebraska study is happy to conflate "viral RNA" with "infectious virus particles" -- not the same thing.
I thought the CDC might have had brand-new information about this kind of spread ... I see that they don't. Maybe more and better will come out soon -- I won't say "never". But we're not there yet.
EDIT2: Heck, that NEJM article mentioned was also a study we were able to cast aside earlier in this thread -- the infamous "Goldberg drum" study where they sprayed a mess of SARS virus into a big metal drum and spun it around for three hours. What real-life conditions they were trying to replicate, I have no idea.
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Insoxicated
Chemical X
Footballguy
CurlyNight
Footballguy
ProstheticRGK
Footballguy
I understand your concerns, and definitely say "do whatever makes you feel comfortable".
But, there's no evidence, yet, that show this is airborne- and it seems like droplet (like most other viruses and all corona viruses AFAIK) is the most likely route of transmission. Good hand hygiene and a simple mask should be plenty of protection out in public, even with idiots occassionally breaking your 6' bubble. If you're doing that- and not going out unless it's absolutely a necessity, feel good about it.
rockaction
Footballguy
I can see it. The CDC is a political organ. Political organs lie at times no matter how based in science they say they are. Public health officials are political and politically minded. In other words, they can take a zero-risk utilitarian view of their mission purpose. Their belief that in spreading the lowest-risk option available to people as a baseline and as medical fact coupled with a "greater good" philosophy can lead them to peddling what is otherwise junk science as fact.
tri-man 47
Footballguy
In general, a rather steady state day per Covid worldometers. Around 80,000 new cases reported and over 5,000 deaths...both consistent with the past few days (so linear). Spain's numbers have passed Italy's. U.S. on pace for about 30,000 of those new cases (again).
Doug B
Footballguy
CurlyNight
Footballguy
Sounds like things will open up sooner than we think. He may override what the doctors say.
shader
Footballguy
I really would like to see them move on from “steady state” and take a path similar to China or SK. Their economy likely can’t take much more of a quarantine and 4-6k new cases a day means that every week they have 30-40k new cases and the quarantine continues.
This is true of Spain, France, and of course the USA too.
JaxBill
Footballguy
IHME was supposed to tweak their model and produce new projections today. i haven't seen them yet.
saintfool
Dead sexy
Not in January. The alarm bells were going off pretty much everywhere else but Trumpland.
tri-man 47
Footballguy
Yeah, it feels like a holding pattern ...not exponential for the highest-case countries, but not lessening, either. And hard to know how many cases are being missed by limited testing (esp. in the U.S.). These next 2-4 weeks really will be critical. Can the U.S. and others begin to move down the curve? Can we avoid major escalation of cases in countries with newer outbreaks (in Asia, Africa, Latin America)?
JaxBill
Footballguy
Interestingly, looking at Florida's numbers, after a jump of 43 new deaths on Thursday, the last 2 days have been 26 and 25 new deaths respectfully.
Their new cases the last 2 days has been 1277 and 1260. No idea if this due to them catching up on testing backlog or what.
Their new cases the last 2 days has been 1277 and 1260. No idea if this due to them catching up on testing backlog or what.
saintfool
Dead sexy
I'm not sure what you're going for here, honestly. The President had, by 3/6, been denial the seriousness of the situation for weeks and publicly trying to downplay the situation at every turn. This despite a travel restriction and declaring C-19 a public health emergency declared in the country on 1/31. Moreover, of with Joe's poll, more than half who bothered to vote chose 5 or higher and almost 40% chose 7 or higher. (which suggests there were plenty of people alarmed).
JaxBill
Footballguy
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