*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (22 Viewers)

[Penguin]

My fear is that in a few weeks people will just start going out again regardless of what the orders/recommendations are.

The weather's getting nicer out. Some people, albeit a small percentage, haven't done much in the way of sheltering in place.

Others have been abiding for the past 2 to 4 weeks and many are starting to go stir crazy. 

Memorial day is 6 weeks out, that will put most folks at 9-10 weeks of shelter in place. I really think it's going to be hard to keep the general public coup'd up past then.

 

[Capella]

My fear is that in a few weeks people will just start going out again regardless of what the orders/recommendations are.

The weather's getting nicer out. Some people, albeit a small percentage, haven't done much in the way of sheltering in place.

Others have been abiding for the past 2 to 4 weeks and many are starting to go stir crazy. 

Memorial day is 6 weeks out, that will put most folks at 9-10 weeks of shelter in place. I really think it's going to be hard to keep the general public coup'd up past then.

I agree this is likely to happen but if the hospitals fill up people will retreat (I think). The fear of getting hooked up to a ventilator is pretty persuasive. 

 

[NotSmart]

Of course ending the shutdown won't avoid those issues but it will certainly help keeping those numbers lower.  I'm not advocating opening things up yet.  I think another 4-6 weeks and lets see where the numbers are. 

However I think it's a pipe dream ...

Username checks out.

 

[Redwes25]

What’s up with Massachusetts?  I thought they had decent stay at home orders in place but cases per day keep increasing and they reported 2600 today. Would have thought they would have plateaued a bit like NY and NJ. 

 

[The Commish]

Within the theme of intelligent response to the virus, I'm more interested in how businesses can exist within the new normal of the shutdown.  The economy is not dead - far from it.  Companies will figure out how to adapt.  That's what's great about capitalism - hungry entrepreneurs will figure it out.

Restaurants will pivot to delivery/curb side.  Food trucks will go to neighborhoods.  New businesses will thrive - instacart, door dash, etc.  Some technologies will expand - Zoom, Netflix, etc.

Clearly there are some paradigms that are shifting.  I want to know what the impacts are, how people adapt, and how we move forward in a world of social distancing.

ETA: within my earlier bridge analogy, i really liked the ferry response.  Here the ferryman will be making a bunch of money.  What is the real world equivalent of that?   

The ones that are in a real bind are the hospitality industry and travel. The rest can adapt. 

 

[The Commish]

I agree this is likely to happen but if the hospitals fill up people will retreat (I think). The fear of getting hooked up to a ventilator is pretty persuasive. 

You'd think that getting tested would be enough. Wife said it was the most painful thing she's ever gone through

 

[jvdesigns2002]

The ones that are in a real bind are the hospitality industry and travel. The rest can adapt. 

I think you are underestimating the severe impact to the brick and mortar retail sector, the entertainment sector, the health and beauty sector (salons, barbers, massage studios), the fitness sector just to name a few.  

 

[The Commish]

I think you are underestimating the severe impact to the brick and mortar retail sector, the entertainment sector, the health and beauty sector (salons, barbers, massage studios), the fitness sector just to name a few.  

These can adapt. The first one could go online. The others would have to reduce volume in a day or create more space.  I'm not saying or would be easy but they have paths. 

 

[Politician Spock]

I think you are underestimating the severe impact to the brick and mortar retail sector, the entertainment sector, the health and beauty sector (salons, barbers, massage studios), the fitness sector just to name a few.  

Shopping malls were already suffering before this. The number of malls in the US is going to contract even more. Probably too late to short Simon Properties though. 

 

[NotSmart]

Of course ending the shutdown won't avoid those issues but it will certainly help keeping those numbers lower.  I'm not advocating opening things up yet.  I think another 4-6 weeks and lets see where the numbers are.  However I think it's a pipe dream to think we're going to have an effective vaccine for at least 12 months.  Personally I'm not confident we're ever going to have one.  Anyway at some point we're going to have to learn how to live with this virus. It's going to be part of our lives and we can't stay locked up forever.  Again not saying to open things up now or in the near future.  But whether it's mandatory masks in public, continued social distancing, whatever at some point, like this summer sometime, we have to start opening some things back up imo.  Now is not the time but the govt can only keep us going for so long.  Happy Easter everyone!

I think it's a mistake every time I see someone reference 12 months for a vaccine. 

That is not realistic and just contributes to more false expectations by the general public.

If it gets done in 12 months, awesome - but it's not likely.

18 months may be on the optimistic side - and as Pipes said, there is absolutely not a guarantee that we will even get a vaccine developed.

 

[JaxBill]

What’s up with Massachusetts?  I thought they had decent stay at home orders in place but cases per day keep increasing and they reported 2600 today. Would have thought they would have plateaued a bit like NY and NJ. 

One weird thing about their daily report like yesterday is that it lists 87 deaths and then notes "Date of Death 3/24 to 4/11". It then gives county age bracket gender of each of the deceased.

Only reason I bring this up is if they are going bacj a couple weeks to note the deaths caused by the virus, maybe they're doing the same with total cases??? 

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

https://imgur.com/RMzH3Ht
https://imgur.com/wkDwSSK
https://imgur.com/tjOfHkT
https://imgur.com/AxMttIr

Some data charts I put together from our Louisiana data I've been analyzing. Definitely trending in the right direction, in no doubt thanks to the mitigation measures put into place. @Doug B let me know if you see anything that doesn't look right. These are a work in progress. 

 

[NotSmart]

Hunger, poverty, inability to afford health care, heightened drug use, depression, and domestic abuse are all going to increase regardless of whether government keeps or lifts the shuftdown. They are a result of a worldwide pandemic. Ending the shutdown won't avoid those issues at all. 

When a government issues an evacuation order for a hurricane, most people would evacuate even without the order at all. The order the evacuation to save the fools who wouldn't. All cancelling an evacuation would do is result in fools being killed that could have been saved if they had been ordered to evacuate. Cancelling the evacuation would not save the economy at all. The hurricane killed it. The same holds true for pandemics and stay at home orders. It's to save the fools. 

I agree 100%... C19 was going to do its damage regardless.

Regarding the fools, the difference between this and a hurricane is that what the fools do now directly impacts everyone - too many fools getting C19 and clogging the hospitals means less health care resources available for people who follow the rules but contract C19 anyway, or whom have a car accident, a heart attack, need elective surgery, are pregnant...

Fools not following the prescribed mitigation rules have a negative impact on everyone this time.

 

[SoBeDad]

Shopping malls were already suffering before this. The number of malls in the US is going to contract even more. Probably too late to short Simon Properties though. 

I wonder if the COVID-19 crisis will delay or completely derail what was planned to be the largest mall in the USA, a destination Mall, the American Dream Miami. That would give the Miami area 3 of the 20 largest malls in the USA. Foreigners, especially from South America, have spent a lot of money at these malls. 

I've read that large mega destination malls will survive, as mid and small malls die. Just install hand sanitizers everywhere and give out  N-95 masks and they will still come.

 

[Tolstoy]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1249442359672279043?s=21

 

[proteus126]

Did you seriously just write that your estimate is as good as Fauci's?

FWIW, am not saying that Fauci is infallible.  Nor do I believe that he shouldn't be questioned.  But the hubris of thinking that YOUR opinion is equal to his is a huge problem IMO.  This denigration of expertise, distrust of authority and widescale Dunning-Kruger effect is very dangerous.

Surely you didn't mean that, right?

No, of course not.  Had he given one.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

What’s up with Massachusetts?  I thought they had decent stay at home orders in place but cases per day keep increasing and they reported 2600 today. Would have thought they would have plateaued a bit like NY and NJ. 

Guessing this has something to do with it:

Population Density/Square Mile

1 New Jersey 1,210 
2 Rhode Island 1,017 
3 Massachusetts 858 
4 Connecticut 742 
5 Maryland 610 
6 Delaware 475 
7 New York 417

 

[cosjobs]

Even though it's natural to use them, and it seems like they would be good for simplifying differences in viewpoints, I've learned not to use analogies.

People just end up arguing about why they aren't accurate in this way or that way and lose track of the original situation.

I thought the problem was that you suck at analogies?

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Guessing this has something to do with it:

Population Density/Square Mile

1 New Jersey 1,210
2 Rhode Island 1,017
3 Massachusetts 858
4 Connecticut 742
5 Maryland 610
6 Delaware 475
7 New York 417

Yep.  That plus MA is testing 2x their share of the population relative to the US average.

 

[NotSmart]

Even though it's natural to use them, and it seems like they would be good for simplifying differences in viewpoints, I've learned not to use analogies.

People just end up arguing about why they aren't accurate in this way or that way and lose track of the original situation.

I thought the problem was that you suck at analogies?

I'd say it's a lot like managing a fantasy football team... sure, you could draft a team using your knowledge and experience, but it's a lot smarter to subscribe to a FF service and instead use the guidance of those experts.  That way... umm...

Nevermind, that's a bad analogy.

 

[mr roboto]

I think you are underestimating the severe impact to the brick and mortar retail sector, the entertainment sector, the health and beauty sector (salons, barbers, massage studios), the fitness sector just to name a few.  

I work in franchising with a lot of fitness and beauty concepts and I own two personal training studios. I think there’s going to be some real disruptive model adaptations required especially with the 24 hour and big box health clubs and even the large group training concepts like Orange Theory and CycleBar that rely on 30 person classes to make money.

 

[cosjobs]

Shopping malls were already suffering before this. The number of malls in the US is going to contract even more. Probably too late to short Simon Properties though. 

I don't know, they're they are so uncrowded, its one of the easiest places to keep six feet away from other people.

 

[moleculo]

I work in franchising with a lot of fitness and beauty concepts and I own two personal training studios. I think there’s going to be some real disruptive model adaptations required especially with the 24 hour and big box health clubs and even the large group training concepts like Orange Theory and CycleBar that rely on 30 person classes to make money.

Yeah, gyms is one I've been struggling to figure out how to make safe.  Restricting capacity, wiping down gear, maybe closing sauna and showers, i dunno.

I have a number of friends who own jiu jitsu schools.  No idea how they stay afloat.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Shopping malls were already suffering before this. The number of malls in the US is going to contract even more. Probably too late to short Simon Properties though. 

I don't know, they're they are so uncrowded, its one of the easiest places to keep six feet away from other people.

I could probably count my mall visits in the last two decades on one hand.

pre-Coronavirus, did the elderly still go there for walks? if so I guess they serve some purpose.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

My fear is that in a few weeks people will just start going out again regardless of what the orders/recommendations are.

The weather's getting nicer out. Some people, albeit a small percentage, haven't done much in the way of sheltering in place.

Others have been abiding for the past 2 to 4 weeks and many are starting to go stir crazy. 

Memorial day is 6 weeks out, that will put most folks at 9-10 weeks of shelter in place. I really think it's going to be hard to keep the general public coup'd up past then.

We’ve basically mentally given ourselves 12 months.  The hardest part of that will be quarantining ourselves from extended family.  Our parents really want to see our kids, and we get it.   But it is hard to see us breaking the quarantine this summer even.  Lots of stuff has to change before we do that.  My kids, fortunately, are almost as stubborn as my wife and me.   Most people, sadly, will cave by Memorial Day, as you suggest.

 

[moleculo]

An interesting twitter thread discussing genetic origins of COVID in the US and Seattle specifically.

 

[cosjobs]

Yeah, gums is one I've been struggling to figure out how to make safe.  Restricting capacity, wiping down gear, maybe closing sauna and showers, i dunno.

I have a number of friends who own jiu jitsu schools.  No idea how they stay afloat.

Put all the exercise equipment to use in an overly chlorinated pool?

 

[BobbyLayne]

Guessing this has something to do with it:

Population Density/Square Mile

1 New Jersey 1,210
2 Rhode Island 1,017
3 Massachusetts 858
4 Connecticut 742
5 Maryland 610
6 Delaware 475
7 New York 417

NYC is 28,188

By Borough:

Manhattan 72K

Brooklyn 37K

Bronx 35K

Queens 21K

Staten Island 8K

 

[JAA]

I agree 100%... C19 was going to do its damage regardless.

Regarding the fools, the difference between this and a hurricane is that what the fools do now directly impacts everyone - too many fools getting C19 and clogging the hospitals means less health care resources available for people who follow the rules but contract C19 anyway, or whom have a car accident, a heart attack, need elective surgery, are pregnant...

Fools not following the prescribed mitigation rules have a negative impact on everyone this time.

It feels to me like drunk driving. If the only person a drunk driver could kill is themselves, I think laws would be a bit different. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

Happy Easter!  

That reminds me of a video I saw earlier this week YouTuber Dr John Campbell (UK, excellent 15 minute daily’s.) He was diagramming how far  droplets travel.

Normal breathing 2 meters

Coughing 4-6 meters

Sneezing 8 meters



Did not cover snot rockets

  

 

[moleculo]

Put all the exercise equipment to use in an overly chlorinated pool?

Hmm...what level of chlorine does the trick?  Gotta be pretty near bleach, right?

 

[TheWinz]

People refused a test are resorting to showing up at hospitals, removing their masks, then coughing on medical staff.  It's a surefire way to get a test, and a bed for the night.  Just saw some 30 year old do it on my local news.

 

[Mr. Pickles]

My wife asked me to go pick up a meal curbside at Boston Market for Easter today. 

Wow. They’re still around?

 

[mr roboto]

Yeah, gyms is one I've been struggling to figure out how to make safe.  Restricting capacity, wiping down gear, maybe closing sauna and showers, i dunno.

I have a number of friends who own jiu jitsu schools.  No idea how they stay afloat.

If you can schedule peoples workouts and clean between each client you should be fine which is what my business can do but many can’t.

 

[Quint]

Hmm...what level of chlorine does the trick?  Gotta be pretty near bleach, right?

Not really. A normally chlorinated pool, especially outdoors, will be toxic enough for a virus to not survive.

The trick will be figuring out how to do interval training with more than one person per lane. Lots of people breathing heavy on the wall in close proximity between sets is bad thing. Then you have locker rooms, etc. which is another hurdle for gyms/health clubs to overcome. 

 

[beer 30]

You'd think that getting tested would be enough. Wife said it was the most painful thing she's ever gone through

Curious, I had a flu test in December where they bury a swab in your frontal lobe, same test? Or do they go deeper? Like tapping on the back of your skull

 

[moleculo]

Not really. A normally chlorinated pool, especially outdoors, will be toxic enough for a virus to not survive.

The trick will be figuring out how to do interval training with more than one person per lane. Lots of people breathing heavy on the wall in close proximity between sets is bad thing. Then you have locker rooms, etc. which is another hurdle for gyms/health clubs to overcome. 

Interesting.  

My neighborhood has an outdoor pool.  I would love to be able to find a way where that could open - limit capacity or something.  Probably not feasible due to liability, especially given we have a ton of lifeguards.

 

[Quint]

Interesting.  

My neighborhood has an outdoor pool.  I would love to be able to find a way where that could open - limit capacity or something.  Probably not feasible due to liability, especially given we have a ton of lifeguards.

I’d guess limiting capacity would be step 1 if/when the pool opens, followed by physical distancing in the pool itself. Probably easier for [responsible] adults to abide since kids like to play more in the water. 
 

Interesting thought on lifeguards: I wonder who bears liability if a lifeguard has to administer CPR and the victim is asymptomatic with C-19? 

 

[Don't Noonan]

Wow. They’re still around?

In Phoenix they are.  Although some of them have closed down here as well.

 

[CurlyNight]

Using smart phones to track people. The eye in the sky would think I'm dead. I don't take my phone out with me. 

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Not really. A normally chlorinated pool, especially outdoors, will be toxic enough for a virus to not survive.

The trick will be figuring out how to do interval training with more than one person per lane. Lots of people breathing heavy on the wall in close proximity between sets is bad thing. Then you have locker rooms, etc. which is another hurdle for gyms/health clubs to overcome. 

Idk, unless it's determined that it's transmitted more via aerosol transmission, then I don't think that will be a big deal. Similar to the running article that is making it's rounds. As someone here mentioned in that discussion, it has more to do with the viral load (whole virus particles vs only partial particles) and what can/can't infect. What it would take, though, is hyper vigilance to not touch one's face with unwashed hands. 

 

[Biff84]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1249442359672279043?s=21

This is in my hometown and has been handled as poorly as imaginable. They were offering employees bonuses for not calling in sick during April and encouraging employees to work while sick. They were supposedly monitoring employee temps but reported an average of 94 degrees which is clearly false.

Initially they weren’t going to do anything, then they agreed to shut down for 3 days for cleaning but only certain areas of the plant. There was significant national pressure to keep them running because it could cause a disruption in the supply chain. Around 300 cases now with about the same amount pending. Likely will be single handedly responsible for making the area a hotspot in the next few weeks.

 

[moleculo]

Idk, unless it's determined that it's transmitted more via aerosol transmission, then I don't think that will be a big deal. Similar to the running article that is making it's rounds. As someone here mentioned in that discussion, it has more to do with the viral load (whole virus particles vs only partial particles) and what can/can't infect. What it would take, though, is hyper vigilance to not touch one's face with unwashed hands. 

That's what would be cool about the pool though - you are basically washing your hands and face with every stroke.

 

[Statorama]

WalMart CEO: Hair dye, Hair clippers are the next "panic buy" items

 

[Nugget]

Apparently 40 cars worth of people in my county couldn't skip Easter service today.   FML.

 

[CurlyNight]

Poor Mississippi. Tornado hit there. 3 dead so far.

 

[CurlyNight]

Apparently 40 cars worth of people in my county couldn't skip Easter service today.   FML.

Are you in Besehor KS? 

 

[the moops]

Using smart phones to track people. The eye in the sky would think I'm dead. I don't take my phone out with me. 

I looked at my google timeline for the past month. It is sad. A whole lot of walking down to our lake and back. With a few random long bike rides

 

[raidergil]

I'm in & out here so sorry if already mentioned, but has Ozone Therapy been discussed?  Never heard of it until I came across this.  We had trip planned for Ibiza in late June. Not going of course but thought of checking news today.  Seems like the Ozone Therapy is successful in trials for Covid and sounds like it has promising results over the years for stuff but also have to wonder about long term effects: https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/320759#safety

 

[Quint]

I'm in & out here so sorry if already mentioned, but has Ozone Therapy been discussed?  Never heard of it until I came across this.  We had trip planned for Ibiza in late June. Not going of course but thought of checking news today.  Seems like the Ozone Therapy is successful in trials for Covid and sounds like it has promising results over the years for stuff but also have to wonder about long term effects: https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/320759#safety

Is this like o3?