*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)

[Death Bytes]

The national stay at home directive that many states have adopted and adapted. We now have universal standards that clearly won't be followed by all. But for the ones that do it will generate plenty of pressure on the states that don't. No governor should have their entire state on lockdown when they meet the standards set forth yesterday.

What NATIONAL stay at home directive?

The governors that issued STATE stay at home directives did so on their own volition. 

Trump trying to force them to reopen is the very definition of a blanket measure. He's even called it a mutiny if governors don't comply with his national reopen blanket measures. 

 

[Doug B]

Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health

Glad to see sampling of apparent healthies -- even on a small scale -- starting to take place.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

New cases are a function of testing. The hard metrics are hospitalizations, intubations and deaths. You can get a decline in new cases by just not testing anyone. Which is exactly what the initial response was by the federal government, by the way. Don't want to see any new cases? Don't test anyone. Voila, decline.

You can't enter phase one without sustained decline in deaths. Are you anticipating there will be over eager governors who will start hiding deaths?

 

[Sand]

New cases are a function of testing. The hard metrics are hospitalizations, intubations and deaths. You can get a decline in new cases by just not testing anyone. Which is exactly what the initial response was by the federal government, by the way. Don't want to see any new cases? Don't test anyone. Voila, decline.

Nate Silver did a good article on this a bit back.

 

[jamny]

That's probably why they made it a 14 day window of decline. And if it spurs more testing by a governor eager to show their numbers are rising, that increased testing aspect is a good thing, right?

I get the sense that some people did not even look up the recommended procedures put out yesterday. 

 

[Willy]

Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health

Wow.  I'm still amazed at how slow the ramp up of testing, both for active cases and anti-bodies has been.  The landscape might be completely different that what it appears and we really have no way to know until the tests show the actual figures.  So frustrating.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

Who's getting all conspiratorial now?  

Even if a state tries to reduce testing to steer their case numbers, if they have an issue requiring a lock down, they won't be able to hide their deaths. 

 

[Mr Anonymous]

I get the sense that some people did not even look up the recommended procedures put out yesterday. 

Your sense is is well tuned.

 

[Redwes25]

Numbers remain stubbornly high in Italy (3493 new cases and 575 new deaths for today according to Worldometers).  The also continue to report increases of active cases so they haven't yet even hit the peak of cases.  This does not bode well for the USA.  

ETA - fixed typo in initial post 3493 new cases vs. original post of 493.

 

[JShare87]

Just heard Jacksonville FL re-opening its beaches.

Not true until @JaxBill says so. We need you back!

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

You can't enter phase one without sustained decline in deaths. Are you anticipating there will be over eager governors who will start hiding deaths?

No, I'm saying the guidelines shouldn't necessarily be using new cases in their metrics. Hospitalizations and deaths are more accurate, IMO.

I'm probably saying the opposite of what people may be thinking, in fact. Using new cases is a disincentive to testing universally. They shouldn't use it as part of the criteria in analyzing declines in the 14 day period.

 

[Doug B]

There are two ways the red can be reckoned, and they lead to very different decision-making:

a) Where the overall number of active, ongoing cases is decreasing day by day.

b) Where daily counts of new confirmed cases is decreasing day by day. 

That's probably why they made it a 14 day window of decline. And if it spurs more testing by a governor eager to show their numbers are rising, that increased testing aspect is a good thing, right?

Which decline -- (a) or (b) ? Note that Situation (b) likely means that active, ongoing cases are still increasing UNLESS recoveries are simultaneously coming in fast and furious.

 

[Doug B]

That's probably why they made it a 14 day window of decline. And if it spurs more testing by a governor eager to show their numbers are rising, that increased testing aspect is a good thing, right?

I get the sense that some people did not even look up the recommended procedures put out yesterday. 

I still haven't seen them in their "native" state ... only through this thread.

 

[Zegras11]

One thing for sure that needs to happen is anybody who can work remote should for as long as possible.  That should be a mandate from state and national leaders - do not require your employees to come onsite if it's not absolutely required.  I think that and a few other measures will help a lot to ease in to reopening.

Trump mentioned doing this several times yesterday.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

No, I'm saying the guidelines shouldn't necessarily be using new cases in their metrics. Hospitalizations and deaths are more accurate, IMO.

I'm probably saying the opposite of what people may be thinking, in fact. Using new cases is a disincentive to testing universally. They shouldn't use it as part of the criteria in analyzing declines in the 14 day period.

Ah, got it thanks. My apologies for misunderstanding.

 

[Redwes25]

Good news in SD with just 100 new cases.  I am personally worried of a big break out there given large numbers out of that one pork plant but under 10% growth in cases is good news.  - https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/17/coronavirus-cases-increase-100-south-dakota-92-minnehaha-county/5151808002/

 

[shader]

I get the sense that some people did not even look up the recommended procedures put out yesterday. 

Two things:

1. I agree we should all read the guidelines so that we are well versed on them.  If you have a link, I'd love to read them to I can speak intelligently to them.

2. There are many states that won't be using those guidelines.  Just like many states shut things down on their own, with little guidance by the federal government, many will make their decisions on re-opening the same way.

 

[Doug B]

I get the sense that some people did not even look up the recommended procedures put out yesterday. 

Your sense is is well tuned.

I never got the sense that the person putting out those recommendations was a person with their hands upon a nationwide pandemic steering wheel, as it were.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

Addressing the criteria regarding cases to enter phase 1...

Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period

- OR -

Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period Downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests)

To say you've got a true decline, the number of tests has to stay flat or increase. No governor can slow testing and claim their cases or rate are declining.

What will be our next conspiracy to dispel?

 

[rcam]

Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health

This seems a little far-fetched to me. It would imply 1/10 to 1/6 of the entire US population has antibodies.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Ah, got it thanks. My apologies for misunderstanding.

I should have been more clear. I'm afraid that by including new cases in the criteria, once they ramp up testing ,the new case numbers will go up even though hospitalizations and deaths may be going down. So if hospitalizations and deaths are going down, that should be the 14 day criteria, that way they can ramp up testing and not be penalized for it.

 

[Zegras11]

Two things:

1. I agree we should all read the guidelines so that we are well versed on them.  If you have a link, I'd love to read them to I can speak intelligently to them.

2. There are many states that won't be using those guidelines.  Just like many states shut things down on their own, with little guidance by the federal government, many will make their decisions on re-opening the same way.

that's why they are called guidelines.     My state has 30% of the counties with zero cases.  And don't get me wrong, I shut down a week before everyone else did. 

 

[jamny]

A Framework for Re-Opening America

eta: this looks like one from a couple of days before the official announcement yesterday.

 

[Doug B]

Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health

This seems a little far-fetched to me. It would imply 1/10 to 1/6 of the entire US population has antibodies.

Similar sampling has to take place nationwide, true. The "antibody rate" in a California county may not be comparable to rates all over.

 

[Anarchy99]

Here's some more recent boots on the ground data from here in Southern NH. The huge push weeks ago to convert buildings to temporary hospitals was overkill. No one used any of those beds. Hospitals here cleared out as many patients as possible to make room for the expected mass run of COVID patients. That never happened either. They still are not letting elective procedures to occur yet, so local hospitals have had to furlough hundreds of both clinical and support staff. We stand at 1,200+ confirmed cases and 34 fatalities. I suppose they were looking to be more safe than sorry.

Somewhere in the region, they tested people at a homeless shelter. Approximately 50% of the people tested positive but were all symptomatic. Someone in the medical profession can tell me what that may or may not mean. Could that mean that half of people have already had the virus? Does that mean more people have it and are contagious than previously thought? Is that a good outcome or bad outcome?

Our governor here hasn't really sounded all that confident in relaxing any of the shelter-in-place measures. His logic is we are right next to Massachusetts and also get a lot of visitors from NY. So his logic so far as been he will not "reopen" things until nearby hot spots get the all clear, as he fears if we open up we will get tons of visitors from the hot spots. Because of that, he has suggested that there may be no summer tourist season here, restaurants may be closed for MONTHS, and schools may not open in the fall and they may have to continue with online learning to begin the 2020-21 school year. That's basically looking at 6 more months . . . which I doubt people here will sit idly by for spring, summer, and into fall.

 

[Tolstoy]

There was a “national stay-at-home directive”?

 

[jamny]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/president-trump-s-proposed-guidelines-for-relaxing-social-distancing-guidance/b7768600-7906-408c-89a3-06fd5a47aa26/?itid=lk_inline_manual_3

 

[Mr Anonymous]

I should have been more clear. I'm afraid that by including new cases in the criteria, once they ramp up testing ,the new case numbers will go up even though hospitalizations and deaths may be going down. So if hospitalizations and deaths are going down, that should be the 14 day criteria, that way they can ramp up testing and not be penalized for it.

If a state has a 14 day decline in cases, technically they can use the given criteria to reopen even with less testing. But there's no doubt that trying to manipulate the data by cutting testing dramatically would then mean they wouldn't meet other aspects of the criteria such as those which fall under hospital capability.

 

[shader]

A Framework for Re-Opening America

Thanks!

 

[ConstruxBoy]

When they get it, how do we stop them from giving it to someone else?

Nuke them from orbit. It's the only way to be sure. 

 

[Mr Anonymous]

There was a “national stay-at-home directive”?

Call it more of a recommendation if you'd prefer. Nothing was mandatory, no. 95% fell under a stay at home of some sort.

 

[JAA]

You weren't raked by me, I was grateful and thankful to the person who posted it.  It absolutely has a better economic outlook, please read all of the scenarios and feedback from stimulus package.  You should also read the ign survey, the feedback is all there.

I will go on a quick rant:  No one has yet to find ANY economic analysis which states we should be aggressive in opening up.  None, zero, zip, zilch, nada, 0, cero, etc, etc, etc.  How on EARTH can anyone have the opinion that we should be looking to open up sooner rather than later?  I mean, unless these opinions are those of more decorated economists?  Am I missing something here?  Sholdnt it be easy to have faith in the experts?

Who is saying we should be aggressive in opening up?

I honestly dont have the time to identify the 432982 posts in this thread stating exactly this.

 

[shader]

There was a “national stay-at-home directive”?

Not really

 

[jamny]

Thanks!

The Washington Post link above is the one put out yesterday. The one you quoted I guess was a earlier version.

 

[Biff84]

Good news in SD with just 100 new cases.  I am personally worried of a big break out there given large numbers out of that one pork plant but under 10% growth in cases is good news.  - https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/17/coronavirus-cases-increase-100-south-dakota-92-minnehaha-county/5151808002/

From my friends who work in health care there, testing is still a major issue. So I don’t know if we can read too much into the new case results at this point.

 

[Death Bytes]

There was a “national stay-at-home directive”?

Was it over when the Germans bombed Peral Harbor?!?!

 

[JAA]

The only places that will meet phase one reopening criteria are the places where cases are declining. This isn't some hidden secret.

Cases are up we shouldn't reopen!!!!

Cases requires testing.  I know that seems obvious, however there are continued testing challenges across the country.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

Cases requires testing.  I know that seems obvious, however there are continued testing challenges across the country.

Good thing that's addressed as part of the criteria. You should read it. It's worth a look.

 

[matuski]

April 27 reopening begins for TX. 

Baby steps start today, real stuff next week.  

 

[JAA]

Who's getting all conspiratorial now?  

Even if a state tries to reduce testing to steer their case numbers, if they have an issue requiring a lock down, they won't be able to hide their deaths. 

Im pretty sure many folks on here are claiming that the CV19 deaths have been inflated so that hospitals and states get additional funding.

And now someone is surprised that other folks think that cases and deaths would be under-reported to support a different side of the equation?

 

[Mr Anonymous]

April 27 reopening begins for TX. 

Congrats!

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

April 27 reopening begins for TX. 

Not to be callous, but I want the country to open back up. Particularly for unemployment to drop. People need to get back to work for the economy to stabilize. Do I want more hospitalizations and deaths? Heck no! So maybe I want my cake and eat it too. Good luck Texas. Don't screw it up.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

Im pretty sure many folks on here are claiming that the CV19 deaths have been inflated so that hospitals and states get additional funding.

And now someone is surprised that other folks think that cases and deaths would be under-reported to support a different side of the equation?

I'd love to hear how deaths will be hidden. This will be a fun hole to dive down into.

 

[matuski]

Not to be callous, but I want the country to open back up. Particularly for unemployment to drop. People need to get back to work for the economy to stabilize. Do I want more hospitalizations and deaths? Heck no! So maybe I want my cake and eat it too. Good luck Texas. Don't screw it up.

Couldn't agree more.

 

[JAA]

Here's some more recent boots on the ground data from here in Southern NH. The huge push weeks ago to convert buildings to temporary hospitals was overkill. No one used any of those beds. Hospitals here cleared out as many patients as possible to make room for the expected mass run of COVID patients. That never happened either. They still are not letting elective procedures to occur yet, so local hospitals have had to furlough hundreds of both clinical and support staff. We stand at 1,200+ confirmed cases and 34 fatalities. I suppose they were looking to be more safe than sorry.

Somewhere in the region, they tested people at a homeless shelter. Approximately 50% of the people tested positive but were all symptomatic. Someone in the medical profession can tell me what that may or may not mean. Could that mean that half of people have already had the virus? Does that mean more people have it and are contagious than previously thought? Is that a good outcome or bad outcome?

Our governor here hasn't really sounded all that confident in relaxing any of the shelter-in-place measures. His logic is we are right next to Massachusetts and also get a lot of visitors from NY. So his logic so far as been he will not "reopen" things until nearby hot spots get the all clear, as he fears if we open up we will get tons of visitors from the hot spots. Because of that, he has suggested that there may be no summer tourist season here, restaurants may be closed for MONTHS, and schools may not open in the fall and they may have to continue with online learning to begin the 2020-21 school year. That's basically looking at 6 more months . . . which I doubt people here will sit idly by for spring, summer, and into fall.

Just a FYI, MA may needs those beds.  We are starting a ramp not too many miles from you.  Should it continue to move out from Boston, it will make its way to NH.  Based on the density of NH, not nearly as the same rate one would hope.

 

[JAA]

Good thing that's addressed as part of the criteria. You should read it. It's worth a look.

I have read the criteria, and for the record I like the criteria.  I simply wanted to include some detail which feels, at least to me, as being overlooked purposefully.

 

[rcam]

Similar sampling has to take place nationwide, true. The "antibody rate" in a California county may not be comparable to rates all over.

It seems far fetched because it would also seem to imply that 50-80 fold are also asymptomatic or nearly so. We haven't seen that in groups that we *know* have high likelihood of being exposed like NYC EMS/FDNY where about 1/4 of them are out sick. 

 

[rcam]

Call it more of a recommendation if you'd prefer. Nothing was mandatory, no. 95% fell under a stay at home of some sort.

So, in other words, there is no national stay at home directive. It would be nice if you didn't just make things up. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

Hi Folks,

Just a reminder in general - please keep all the political posts out of this thread and put them in the Political Forum. Thanks. 

 

[Mr Anonymous]

So, in other words, there is no national stay at home directive. It would be nice if you didn't just make things up. 

Directive is actually a pretty good word to describe it. It was advised and threatened to become mandatory if needed.

The argument was over whether or not the federal govt had the authority to put any teeth behind the threat.