This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Generally, waves climb for 7-8 weeks and then fall suddenly. That's pretty much what happened in both Scotland and the UK as a whole. No guarantees, but looking at Louisiana, we still have 2-3 weeks of increases based on that.
For places where schools start in September, the timing of the Delta wave's eventual crash might be fortuitous. Especially if the U.S. Delta wave ends up shaped like the UK's (high, but sharp like a church steeple).
I did say roughly...
I'm hoping that the U.S.'s current number of vaccinations -- plus the number of previously infected -- has enough of a effect on Delta's wave to keep it tall and thin (constrained in time). An 8-week climb would be unfortunate -- that would mean that this fourth wave would peak far higher than this past winter's wave when very few were vaccinated.
Do you have anything on people that already had Covid with this? I understand how valuable the vaccine is but the goal should be herd immunity. Vaccines are a huge part of that but goal seems to be vaccines and anything else be darned. Anyways my 2 cents. Hope you all are doing well.
Good luck! Hope her side effects are minimal.
You’re trying to reconcile three different virology concepts: virulence, transmissibility and viral load.ignatiusjreilly said:
IMO this has been a messaging failure since the start of the pandemic. Some people care about civic duty, but some don't. Everyone cares about their own self-interest. Getting vaccinated doesn't need to be a moral crusade or anything -- it's totally okay and good to watch out for yourself!
I wonder how rationing would have to be marketed if we had another WW2-like predicament. I think there would be a good chunk of the population who would respond with the same resistance to requests from the government.
One of the reasons I’ve avoided the term “viral load” is its being used very differently for COVID than in other viral infections. Historically, viral load only referred to virus measured in the bloodstream, but people (scientists included) are using it to mean virus anywhere in the body, such as the mucosa of the nasopharynx. While a lot of virus in the nose promotes efficient spread, it may or may not correlate to viral burden elsewhere, including the lungs and blood. Perhaps more importantly, quantitative tests for sars-cov-2 aren’t commercially available tmk, so labs outside research settings aren’t actually measuring viral load at all - all they know is whether the virus is detected, or not.ignatiusjreilly said:
Its just mind blowing that you have the public clambering for a drug that isn't even approved. Damned be the unlucky ones. Get the vax, if you don't have it and no immunity. Goal is get this virus beat my all means necessary.
This assumes she doesn't catch it on vacation. Nearly everyone I know that got it (and wasn't some sort of medical personnel) got it on a trip somewhere while not vaccinated.
Yep, the reinfected rate seems lower than the infected vaccine rate. Its just mind boggling we have no real information on this in the US.
It's somewhat gilded narrative to say that the US cooperated with WW2 completely. A large portion worked against it. There are always #######s that just want to be contrarian.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
Test results: Negative.Have had a bit of a sore throat and muscle soreness since Sunday AM. Nothing bad but it's there.
Played Golf for the first time in a while which could be it, but also was out in public a good bit late last week.
Likely nothing, but out of an abundance of caution I've scheduled a rapid COVID test for tomorrow afternoon.
Recap of basic pertinent info:
44yo Male, Some comorbidities (Hypertension / Overweight)... have avoided COVID infection thus far... 2nd Moderna shot was Mid Feb.
My wife's work (dental office) had 8 cancelations last 2 days - all covid related. She came around to my side this morning and agreed we should make the kids do it.
Do you know how many people live in India? This is a stupid commentbeer 30 said:
Based on the economic disparities in India it is highly likely that the number of cases and deaths are severely under-counted.
Regardless, the number have cases has declined whether they under counted or not. Unless you think they are under counting now but counted right in May.
Maybe it’s run it’s course through the low hanging fruit and there are better containment processes in place as opposed to when the outbreak took hold?
that can't be right can it?
we still think masks are "punishing"?
Yeahhhhh my kid ain’t going to preschool I. August. Calling tutors today.####.. from Arkansas Children's Hospital:
Record number of admissions yesterday... 50% higher than any other day
24 kids admitted yesterday
7 are in ICU
4 are on ventilators
I wouldn’t be shocked if its true. The key is that you are looking at kids that are being brought to a hospital because they are sick enough to where the parents are worried about their well being. I’d imagine that for every child that is taken to the hospital with covid—that there are lots more that don’t get taken to the hospital (which would reduce these percentages if accounted for).Houston Texas: "Yes we have kids in TX on ventilators due to COVID"
"Out of all the kids who show up to Texas Children’s concerned they may have COVID-19, “Currently, roughly 10 percent of those children who test positive do require hospitalization,” said Dr. Jim Versalovic, Pathologist-in-Chief and Interim Pediatrician-in-Chief at Texas Children’s Hospital, “and roughly one-third of those may require critical care.”"
Jesus
10% of kids who test positive require hospitalization and 3% require critical care?!
This would seem to provide somewhat of an answer to my question:ignatiusjreilly said:
Now, I have no idea of the credibility of this source. And the anecdotes from Arkansas and Texas that everyone's sharing about kids in the ICU is obviously concerning.
I think this is probably true, but I don't think it's a big deal. For vaccinated people, "getting covid" isn't anything to worry about -- it's just somewhat nastier than the other coronaviruses that we've all been infected by many times uneventfully during our lives. Assuming that's where we land with covid-19, that's a great outcome. No need to worry about prevention if we're talking about something in the same general tier as the common cold.
In the past couple weeks I've started to come to terms with the idea that I may get Covid. Not that it's necessarily likely, just that it's a very real possibility. On the one hand, the fact that I'm vaccinated removes the existential dread that I might have felt six months ago. On the other, I'd really rather not get $%#@%^ Covid! So the thought that I might makes me a little bit sad and a little bit more determined to remain vigilant, but mostly just resigned, which isn't exactly a good or a bad thing
I disagree with you on the tier of a common cold—but everybody is entitled to their own opinion. I personally know several covid long haulers—some of them are young and were in perfect health before covid—that are struggling big time months after an infection. Data from the UK shows that many people that have had Covid are actually losing brain mass and brain matter in their frontal lobes. It’s a disease that has already been linked to clotting issues. I want to make my position clear. While I am of the belief that most of us will inevitably get Covid at some point—I still believe that it’s a very serious disease with lots of potential long term ramifications.
Were the covid long-haulers vaccinated?
Only 1 of them. This same person was also unlucky enough to be moderately symptomatic with covid even though vaccinated. The others got covid before vaccinations were available. The concern is that with the Delta strain—a lot of vaccinated people are getting infected with covid—but are generally not experiencing symptoms or are experiencing mild symptoms. The UK data that showed direct correlations between covid infection and loss of brain mass/matter in the frontal lobe was consistent for people who had both severe covid and mild/asymptomatic covid. Basically—the UK data showed that a lot of people that had covid—regardless of severity—have shown a decrease in brain matter in their frontal lobe. We won’t know if the vaccines actually prevent the long term ramifications of a covid infection for a long while—but they certainly seem to be doing a good job at minimizing the the chances of short term severe infection.
One more argument in favor of continued masking: I don't want to make the same mistake the CDC did! Right now my kids are used to wearing masks and if we tell them they have to keep doing it, they likely won't complain. But if we tell them they can stop and then later things continue to get worse and we want to go back, it will be that much harder and more confusing for them.
