*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (11 Viewers)

[Scoresman]

Do booster shots have to be specifically formulated as boosters or are they essentially just a third shot of the same vaccine as before?  I know they can be tweaked to work better against variants, but can existing supplies be used as boosters?

 

[IC FBGCav]

@IC FBGCav

Since you and I are the only one's who seem to care about this

https://nypost.com/2021/07/28/reinfected-covid-survivors-less-likely-to-spread-virus-study/

https://youtu.be/j7PJT9D7twU

Someone that finally makes some sense.

 

[Jobber]

Thanks for the cruise info. My wife and I were just chatting about doing something around Christmas. Maybe a cruise! We cancelled a Norwegian cruise in early 2020, so maybe we give it another go.

 

[culdeus]

Do booster shots have to be specifically formulated as boosters or are they essentially just a third shot of the same vaccine as before?  I know they can be tweaked to work better against variants, but can existing supplies be used as boosters?

Nobody has changed the formulation yet.  There isn't a clear plan how that would be managed.  

 

[Pip's Invitation]

We have a Disney cruise booked for December 2022. Hopefully things will be less insane then, and my son (currently 10) will be vaccinated. 

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Most likely not—but I think the reality is that there are a TON of breakthrough cases that are gong unreported. Most people do not get covid tested super often—especially vaccinated people..  If a vaccinated person feels like they have a mild cold or flu—more often than not—they are just going to ride it out. Breakthrough cases that are bad enough to seek a hospital visit most likely represent a tiny minority.  Being that we only count cases that are officially reported by labs or hospitals—I’d say its safe to assume that there is a LOT more Covid out there than we think.  A lot of people got vaccinated in February or before—which means the efficacy of them is dropping with each passing day.   You have to remember—towards the beginning of covid—one of the biggest fears was asymptomatic spread.   With so many vaccinated breakthroughs occurring—asymptomatic spread could be very plausible currently. 

Looks like I was right. CNN just revealed an internal CDC document that says that it looks as though vaccinated people can spread the Delta variant just the same amount as unvaccinated people.   I’d say that this means that asymptomatic spread is not only plausible—but it’s almost a certainty.   At this point—if you really want to avoid getting covid—your best bet is to combine vaccination with quality (N-95) masking imo. 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/29/politics/cdc-masks-covid-19-infections/index.html

 

[Doug B]

Looks like I was right. CNN just revealed an internal CDC document that says that it looks as though vaccinated people can spread the Delta variant just the same amount as unvaccinated people.

Thanks for posting -- there's a valuable link in that CNN piece to this more detailed Washington Post article (appears not to be paywalled): ‘The war has changed’: Internal CDC document urges new messaging, warns delta infections likely more severe (Washington Post, 7/29/2021)

...

Reading these links, something has occurred to me: Perhaps the vaccines -- especially the mRNA ones -- should be considered more as prophylaxis and less as a vehicle for sterilizing immunity. Lots of people are willing to take hydrochloroquine, colloidal silver, and ivermectin prophylactically against COVID. Why not throw the vaccines into the same mental bucket?

Also ... it seems apparent that until the next vaccine-development breakthrough (sorry), current COVID vaccines will probably have to be administered as often as four times annually in some people. A better mousetrap will likely be built, just hard to know exactly when.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Thanks for posting -- there's a valuable link in that CNN piece to this more detailed Washington Post article (appears not to be paywalled): ‘The war has changed’: Internal CDC document urges new messaging, warns delta infections likely more severe (Washington Post, 7/29/2021)

...

Reading these links, something has occurred to me: Perhaps the vaccines -- especially the mRNA ones -- should be considered more as prophylaxis and less as a vehicle for sterilizing immunity. Lots of people are willing to take hydrochloroquine, colloidal silver, and ivermectin prophylactically against COVID. Why not throw the vaccines into the same mental bucket?

Also ... it seems apparent that until the next vaccine-development breakthrough (sorry), current COVID vaccines will probably have to be administered as often as four times annually in some people. A better mousetrap will likely be built, just hard to know exactly when.

They always said the vaccines were not sterilizing, like measles is.  But the data was showing it was damn close before Delta. Now it seems like a better version of the flu shot against Delta.
 

Wife’s vaccinated cousin just tested positive. 
 

This is depressing. Thought we were about to be back to normal until winter. Now it looks like the experts last year were correct: 2022. 
 

Once kids are vaxxed, it will be better but UGH. 
 

Guess the hope is Delta burns out and the next variant isnt as bad and the boosters are even better. 

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

I was getting ready to start taking the train to the office once a week next week and to begin traveling again. I would wear a mask but now I am not sure I want to go back out there yet. Even with an N95 or K95. 

 

[Doug B]

They always said the vaccines were not sterilizing, like measles is.  But the data was showing it was damn close before Delta.

Your first sentence is right on ... but as we're aware, your second sentence ended up driving the narrative for a while there.

To the house:

With the initial legwork and trials done ... I wonder how fast a Delta-specific vaccine can be brought to market? I think we have to keep in mind that the current vaccines were built for the initial 2020 strains, and then happened to work well against the first several big variants as well. A testable mRNA vaccine was developed within a few weeks of the SARS-CoV-2 genome being mapped (early January 2020). Theoretically: a Delta-specific mRNA vaccine could be developed before Labor Day -- the only difference from the current mRNA vaccines would be the precise genetic instructions carried in the capsule.

Of course, we'd need a way to obviate the FDA's current authorization/approval processes. Or get the mRNA COVID vaccines into the same "system" that allows new influenza vaccines to be created annually without new trials.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Your first sentence is right on ... but as we're aware, your second sentence ended up driving the narrative for a while there.

To the house:

With the initial legwork and trials done ... I wonder how fast a Delta-specific vaccine can be brought to market? I think we have to keep in mind that the current vaccines were built for the initial 2020 strains, and then happened to work well against the first several big variants as well. A testable mRNA vaccine was developed within a few weeks of the SARS-CoV-2 genome being mapped (early January 2020). Theoretically: a Delta-specific mRNA vaccine could be developed before Labor Day -- the only difference from the current mRNA vaccines would be the precise genetic instructions carried in the capsule.

Of course, we'd need a way to obviate the FDA's current authorization/approval processes. Or get the mRNA COVID vaccines into the same "system" that allows new influenza vaccines to be created annually without new trials.

Correct me if I am wrong, but the issue isn’t that the vaccine antibodies aren’t binding to the spike protein, but that delta replicates so much faster than the prior strains that there ends up being some type of infection for a period and you are contagious. Or am I missing something (or it’s unknown)?

 

[Doug B]

Correct me if I am wrong, but the issue isn’t that the vaccine antibodies aren’t binding to the spike protein, but that delta replicates so much faster than the prior strains that there ends up being some type of infection for a period and you are contagious. Or am I missing something (or it’s unknown)?

The bolded is exactly my understanding. Delta is just fast as hell somehow.

 

[Judge Smails]

When is the conference?

Aug 10th

 

[culdeus]

JFC this thing looks ugly.  All the charts in Texas are vertical.  

 

[jvdesigns2002]

JFC this thing looks ugly.  All the charts in Texas are vertical.  

The next few weeks have the potential to be very ugly for much of the country. The variant spreads very quickly, vaccinated people can spread it, vaccines are losing efficacy and are rapidly becoming more like proactive treatments than they are really preventative.  I would recommend being very diligent and very careful the next few weeks if possible—limit grocery store trips (try to Instacart if possible), avoid eating at restaurants, and when you do have to go out—use good quality masks —N-95s. 

Lastly—and let me make this abundantly clear—I am not recommending that people hoard supplies/necessities. Howver—I would recommend that everybody audit their essentials/supplies and maybe grab what they are short of.  This thing spreads so fast—I could very well see supply chain issues hitting again in the next few weeks. 

On a potential positive note—we could very well see a very ugly next several weeks followed by a huge step towards herd immunity 

 

[Harry Frogfish]

JFC this thing looks ugly.  All the charts in Texas are vertical.  

 

 

[Penguin]

 

Worlodmeters showed the US the last 3 days at 92k, 84k, 68k and Texas at 12k, 9k, 7k

That has to be at least a little concerning

 

[Penguin]

One thing a bunch of folks aren't getting is the death/severe hospitalization numbers. They are repeating the the overall numbers of death/serious covid are roughly around the same percentage as when we were in our worst surge. When you factor in that almost 99% of deaths are unvaxed and remove all the positive cases of fully vaxed people that % goes WAY up

 

[Penguin]

And with the waning effectiveness over time to protect us against the Delta variant or any future mutations (Yes, I realize we are still well protected to severe symptoms) but one has to worry about the continued spread of such variants to unvaxed adults and children under 12.

 

[Penguin]

Hopefully as jvdesigns2002 has said, we see a few more weeks of bad numbers and then we level off. Only time will tell but every life lost right now is almost a life that could have been saved, at least in our country.

 

[Biff84]

One thing to think about with some of the numbers we’re seeing is who’s getting tested. Some of the percentages with kids probably look a lot worse than they are. Kids generally aren’t being preemptively tested. There’s very few situations where a kid would be tested without showing symptoms. So there’s likely significantly more kids with COVID than testing numbers show and the percentage of kids who require hospitalization is much lower.

 

[Penguin]

One thing to think about with some of the numbers we’re seeing is who’s getting tested. Some of the percentages with kids probably look a lot worse than they are. Kids generally aren’t being preemptively tested. There’s very few situations where a kid would be tested without showing symptoms. So there’s likely significantly more kids with COVID than testing numbers show and the percentage of kids who require hospitalization is much lower.

Good point, it's likely that the real numbers of unvaxed deaths is what's really skewed downwards to the actual number of unvaxed adults that are dying

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Good thread interpreting CDC data on Delta and vaccine:

https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1420929102253641728?s=21
 

Bottom line: vaccine still 88% effective against breakthrough. But vaccinated can spread delta, which may be just as contagious as chicken pox. 

 

[Capella]

Incredible we are back to this. I’ll never forgive these brain dead anti-vaxxer morons. 

 

[[icon]]

They always said the vaccines were not sterilizing, like measles is.  But the data was showing it was damn close before Delta. Now it seems like a better version of the flu shot against Delta.
 

Wife’s vaccinated cousin just tested positive. 
 

This is depressing. Thought we were about to be back to normal until winter. Now it looks like the experts last year were correct: 2022. 
 

Once kids are vaxxed, it will be better but UGH. 
 

Guess the hope is Delta burns out and the next variant isnt as bad and the boosters are even better. 

With the variants effectively now escaping containment, the article says new goal isn't containment but preventing severe disease.. and that humans need to get comfortable with the idea that this is here for a while. 
 

Calling 2023 or maybe 24. 

 

[PinkydaPimp]

I was getting ready to start taking the train to the office once a week next week and to begin traveling again. I would wear a mask but now I am not sure I want to go back out there yet. Even with an N95 or K95. 

Just a data point.  But I’m immunocompromised.  And I’m on planes every week.  I do use a n95 or kn95 and always have my mask on indoors even if I’m the only person.  The vaccine works pretty well so assuming you are vaccinated, and you aren’t in an area with very low vaccination rates and high spread it’s probably very low risk assuming you wear a mask.  Breakthrough cases that lead to hospitalization are like .001% likely.  

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Just a data point.  But I’m immunocompromised.  And I’m on planes every week.  I do use a n95 or kn95 and always have my mask on indoors even if I’m the only person.  The vaccine works pretty well so assuming you are vaccinated, and you aren’t in an area with very low vaccination rates and high spread it’s probably very low risk assuming you wear a mask.  Breakthrough cases that lead to hospitalization are like .001% likely.  

More concerned with transmitting to my kids aged 7 and 4. 

 

[shader]

Not sure if I entirely buy that vaccinated people spread the same as unvaccinated. Are they saying vaccinated people who contract the disease? Or vaccinated people that do not (asymptomatic)

Either way if everyone was vaccinated, who cares how much it spreads because it literally isn’t much of a threat at all. 
 

This spike isn’t nearly as concerning to me because the overall hospitalizations and deaths will be WAY down.  And for those that aren’t vaccinated, haven’t we reached the point where they bear the responsibility for it, not those of us who got vaccinated and are trying to just live life?

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Not sure if I entirely buy that vaccinated problem spread the same as unvaccinated. Are they saying vaccinated people who contract the disease? Or vaccinated people that do not (asymptomatic)

Either way if everyone was vaccinated, who cares how much it spreads because it literally isn’t much of a threat at all. 
 

This spike isn’t nearly as concerning to me because the overall hospitalizations and deaths will be WAY down.  And for those that aren’t vaccinated, haven’t we reached the point where they bear the responsibility for it, not those of us who got vaccinated and are trying to just live life?

Except vaccinated parents have to worry about kids who likely won’t even have the option until January. 

 

[IvanKaramazov]

This part is buried at the very bottom of today's Washington Post article:

“I think the central issue is that vaccinated people are probably involved to a substantial extent in the transmission of delta,” Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist, wrote in an email after reviewing the CDC slides. “In some sense, vaccination is now about personal protection — protecting oneself against severe disease. Herd immunity is not relevant as we are seeing plenty of evidence of repeat and breakthrough infections.”

The document underscores what scientists and experts have been saying for months: It is time to shift how people think about the pandemic.

Kathleen Neuzil, a vaccine expert at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, said getting more people vaccinated remains the priority, but the public may also have to change its relationship to a virus almost certain to be with humanity for the foreseeable future.

“We really need to shift toward a goal of preventing serious disease and disability and medical consequences, and not worry about every virus detected in somebody’s nose,” Neuzil said. “It’s hard to do, but I think we have to become comfortable with coronavirus not going away.”

Link.

I don't know about you guys, but this has been the pretty consistent message that I've been getting for the past month or so.  It just doesn't seem like the national narrative has even begun to catch up.  Nearly everyone in corporate media is still talking about the pandemic as if "Zero Covid" is the only good outcome or even an achievable outcome.  If covid-19 is like the common cold or even like the flu for vaccinated people, that's extremely good and firmly in the "victory" category.

The end result of all of this is probably getting to a point where we take the same or similar mitigation measures against covid that we do against influenza and/or cold viruses.  Namely, some combination of annual shots and nothing, because some level of risk isn't worth mitigating against.

Edit: Well, I see [icon] and I zeroed in on the same part of the article.  That's reassuring.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Good thread interpreting CDC data on Delta and vaccine:

https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1420929102253641728?s=21
 

Bottom line: vaccine still 88% effective against breakthrough. But vaccinated can spread delta, which may be just as contagious as chicken pox. 

Very interesting.   And helpful.  Thanks for sharing.

Just as contagious as chicken pox.  Oof.

 

[bcat01]

This part is buried at the very bottom of today's Washington Post article:

Link.

I don't know about you guys, but this has been the pretty consistent message that I've been getting for the past month or so.  It just doesn't seem like the national narrative has even begun to catch up.  Nearly everyone in corporate media is still talking about the pandemic as if "Zero Covid" is the only good outcome or even an achievable outcome.  If covid-19 is like the common cold or even like the flu for vaccinated people, that's extremely good and firmly in the "victory" category.

The end result of all of this is probably getting to a point where we take the same or similar mitigation measures against covid that we do against influenza and/or cold viruses.  Namely, some combination of annual shots and nothing, because some level of risk isn't worth mitigating against.

Edit: Well, I see [icon] and I zeroed in on the same part of the article.  That's reassuring.

If this is the end result I wonder how long it will take for the unvaccinated to decide it is in there best interest to get vaccinated?  My sister in laws family had covid and have no plans to get the vaccine and would not get the vaccine even if they did not get covid.  Once their natural immunity wears off I wonder how many times they will have to get covid to change their mind.  

 

[[icon]]

The logistical tap dancing from the COVIDiot crowd as this report hits should be entertaining....  

Anti-Vaxxers LOVE

- Things that show vaccine isn't bulletproof 

- Govt is hiding things from us 

but....

Anti-Vaxxers HATE 

- Admitting Covid is real and dangerous 

 

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Good thread interpreting CDC data on Delta and vaccine:

https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1420929102253641728?s=21
 

Bottom line: vaccine still 88% effective against breakthrough. But vaccinated can spread delta, which may be just as contagious as chicken pox. 

That 88% figure against breakthrough is not correct. Israel reported last week that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was approximately 39% effective against transmission—but the numbers show that it is 88% effective in preventing symptomatic disease in regards to the Delta variant.    With that low a level of efficacy against actual prevention of the disease—even vaccinated people need to still implement careful measures and not have a false sense of security.  The scary thing is that even with these low percentages—my understanding is that vaccinated people are around 8x less likely to get delta than unvaccinated people—which shows how easily transmittable this variant is. If 8x less likely to get it only translates to about a 39% efficacy—that’s some concerning math.  

 

[Capella]

If this is the end result I wonder how long it will take for the unvaccinated to decide it is in there best interest to get vaccinated?  My sister in laws family had covid and have no plans to get the vaccine and would not get the vaccine even if they did not get covid.  Once their natural immunity wears off I wonder how many times they will have to get covid to change their mind.  

Reports have said vaccines have picked up significantly the last week. Hope it continues. 

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Anti-Vaxxers LOVE

- Things that show vaccine isn't bulletproof 

Yeah.  It's just bizarre that anyone wants to celebrate a vaccine being < 100% efficacy.  Just unreal.

 

[Doug B]

“I think the central issue is that vaccinated people are probably involved to a substantial extent in the transmission of delta,” Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist, wrote in an email after reviewing the CDC slides. “In some sense, vaccination is now about personal protection — protecting oneself against severe disease.

Are we listening, "I'll choose for myself and do what's right for me!" crowd? The vaccine is now "what's right for you". For real.

 

[PinkydaPimp]

More concerned with transmitting to my kids aged 7 and 4. 

ditto.  I’m in the same boat.  Tbh i feel the risk is higher that he would get it in school than from me.  
 

 

[[icon]]

Raw CDC report / deck: 

https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/8a726408-07bd-46bd-a945-3af0ae2f3c37/note/57c98604-3b54-44f0-8b44-b148d8f75165.?fbclid=IwAR0TBJDTcuZ_TPXsI6KZN1CRPWrSOI3cO87b_RPCq7X98mg0SgdtLG2SZb0#page=1

 

[skol asylum]

Arkansas parents to sue state over school mask mandate ban. 

I wish Arizona would follow. Ridiculous dereliction of duty from our Governor and Republican controlled legislature.

 

[Doug B]

Hopefully as jvdesigns2002 has said, we see a few more weeks of bad numbers and then we level off.

The tale of a decently-vaccinated country (UJ, 57% full vax) versus a low-vaccinated country (India, 7%), regarding Delta:

The shape of the Delta peak in the UK was still a sharp up-&-down spike (as opposed to a tall but gradual hill). India's Delta peak was longer and less "spikey" and more like a hill, but even they came down from their peak -- albeit at a new set point of triple their 7-day case average from before Delta.

 

[Doug B]

Not sure if I entirely buy that vaccinated people spread the same as unvaccinated. Are they saying vaccinated people who contract the disease? Or vaccinated people that do not (asymptomatic)

Both. The idea is that Delta's so fast at replicating, it's able to reach a 'critical mass' of transmissible virus just working in the nose and throats of asymptomatic carriers.

For a strong majority of vaccinated folks, the vaccine-generated antibodies still mount enough of a defense against Delta to beat back serious illness. For unvaccinated folks ... well ... 

 

[Redwes25]

Reports have said vaccines have picked up significantly the last week. Hope it continues. 

Haven't seen much movement in the chart the NYT's keeps but has clearly leveled out and maybe a slight uptick but still way down from months ago.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html

 

[worrierking]

That 88% figure against breakthrough is not correct. Israel reported last week that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was approximately 39% effective against transmission—but the numbers show that it is 88% effective in preventing symptomatic disease in regards to the Delta variant.    With that low a level of efficacy against actual prevention of the disease—even vaccinated people need to still implement careful measures and not have a false sense of security.  The scary thing is that even with these low percentages—my understanding is that vaccinated people are around 8x less likely to get delta than unvaccinated people—which shows how easily transmittable this variant is. If 8x less likely to get it only translates to about a 39% efficacy—that’s some concerning math.  

Some important context with the numbers from Israel is required.  The 39% figure is derived from overall vaccinations (Pfizer),  but when broken down by month of second shots it shows a huge difference in efficacy.

January 16%

February 44%

March 67%

April 75%

Their data, which is usually very good, shows substantial waning of immunity as months pass.  Some of this is possibly attributable to the age of the recipients--like everywhere else, the older patients received vaccines first--and older individuals are likely to lose antibodies more rapidly than younger and healthier individuals.

This information strongly suggests that boosters can be effective in fighting the disease.  They are already beginning boosters in certain populations in Israel.  I look for other locations to follow soon.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

This seems like an irresponsible article.  People will conflate things and draw conclusions that Delta is vaccine resistant (it isn't) and it plays into on conspiracy theory that vaccines are what are creating the mutations.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/30/health/vaccination-alone-variants-study/index.html

 

[Doug B]

That 88% figure against breakthrough is not correct. Israel reported last week that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was approximately 39% effective against transmission—but the numbers show that it is 88% effective in preventing symptomatic disease in regards to the Delta variant.

The Israeli numbers are legit and internally consistent, but they're only a piece of the puzzle -- they can't, with that one small-sample study alone, declare a conclusive "39% efficacy". There are other studies with other numbers, and they all have to be aggregated to get a clearer picture.

That said, the "getting infected with Delta" rate for mRNA-vaccinated people is a lot lower than the 90+% figures from the 2020 Phase III trials. I'm ballparking it around 60% until I can get my hands on more data.

EDIT: Plus what worrierking wrote. That was a great point about what the data seems to show about waning immunity in those who got vaccinated earliest.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

This seems like an irresponsible article.  People will conflate things and draw conclusions that Delta is vaccine resistant (it isn't) and it plays into on conspiracy theory that vaccines are what are creating the mutations.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/30/health/vaccination-alone-variants-study/index.html

The same two or three guys in the PSF keep pushing the same narrative about how the vaccines don't really work, and unfortunately CNN and NYT just keep giving them ammo.  It's really kind of amazing.

 

[Doug B]

This seems like an irresponsible article.  People will conflate things and draw conclusions that Delta is vaccine resistant (it isn't) and it plays into on conspiracy theory that vaccines are what are creating the mutations.

The article info was good, and I'm glad you posted it. That headline is painful, though -- that'll be all over Facebook by noon. In a bad way.

 

[Gilroy34]

Arkansas parents to sue state over school mask mandate ban. 

I wish Arizona would follow. Ridiculous dereliction of duty from our Governor and Republican controlled legislature.

Arizona is lucky to have Ducey who has been great on the COVID front.  

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Question for the vaxxed folk here: How much are you changing your behaviors as a result of the past week's news, and this latest CDC report in particular? I had never really stopped indoor masking, so tightening it up a little isn't a big deal. And my wife and I already decided that we won't do indoor dining with our unvaccinated children for the foreseeable future (we may if it's just the two of us, although I think we'll default to outdoor if we can).

The big question I'm wondering about is being in crowds. I recently started a new job where a big part of it is getting out in the community to network/schmooze. There's an event next week that I'd really like to go to, but I'm having second thoughts as to whether it's worth it.

The other thing I'm concerned about is my mother-in-law, who is a senior citizen, a cancer survivor and a Covid widow. That drove so much of our behavior until she was vaccinated, but now I'm wondering if we once again need to factor her safety into our plans (we typically see her once a week).

Don't have any answers, but I'm just curious how others are processing this info.