Terminalxylem
Footballguy
That’s interesting, but not super meaningful without clinical endpoints - I realize it’s still early to have those for omicron though.
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (27 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
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Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
The Z Machine
Footballguy
This is why I sought out a Moderna booster after my initial Pfizer rounds.
Figure that Moderna has consistently shown better efficacy and that mixing vaxxes might provide some marginal benefit of they target slightly different flavors of the spike protein.
Roger Sterling
Footballguy
J&J, Pfizer booster here. Pleased as peach, but still a tad of an 0 for 2 sensation.
Lehigh98
Footballguy
Yes to both, all Pfizer, got my booster a couple months ago. (I've also had the flu shot and tested negative for flu today as well, they did that too for some reason)
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To be fair to Shady, I think it's be really stressful living in NYC these days. My wife and I are good friends with another couple in NYC and they are having a very hard time. I don't quite understand as my life here in MN is basically back to how it was in 2019, but my understanding is that is very much not true in NYC.
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The question is what is ‘not back to normal’? Is it that you have wear a mask in some places or show your vaccination card? I can live my life pretty normally with those restrictions.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Trip cancelled to New York City on Friday. Daughter and fiancée were with another couple most of Monday. They just tested positive. Spiking everywhere. And not comfortable with Pfizer vs Omicron. Would put Christmas Eve in jeopardy with extended family when we get back. So will wait. Sucks.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Bringing this post to the current page because it's important context related to the last few posts. None of you know what another experiences and they don't know what you're dealing with. I work at a small college and we have a mask policy. Us administrators show the example when we're walking around. None of us wear them behind closed doors though. And now that my kids are (partially) vaxxed in those halls are the only times I will wear it if I have any control over it. I get that my reality isn't the case elsewhere though.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
And to be fair to the numerous, thoughtful, educated and patient board members here (myself not included), he could tone it down a notch. It's been endless -- barrage after barrage -- and it's typically aggressive and at times condescending. I get his quest for critical thinking "since he was a boy" or whatever but it's the same #### over and over where he insists on trying to push some endless envelope he'll never open.
We're actually very fortunate to have contributors like gian, termix, and many others. They've been super helpful and patient throughout. They've spent a countless amount of time helping make sense out of all this for everyone. I'm surprised some are still here, after the persistent nagging. Like at least a year of it, probly more.
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Insoxicated
Very good point and I should have said that it was very early. Thanks for keeping us honest in here.
Certain data points lining up (Ie UK's 1.7 day doubling time / Denmark's 1.6 day doubling time) are a lot of smoke but definitely not confirmed fire yet.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I don’t have a good feeling at all about the holidays/New Year in regards to the Covid outlook in the US. The number of breakthrough cases that I personally know of—including several breakthrough cases involving people that were both fully vaccinated and that had caught Covid previously—is growing every day. We are at a point in time where the weather is coldest, we spend more time indoors, tend to be around more people for holiday events, all at a time where the two covid variants that are floating around out there are a couple of the most infectious and contagious respiratory diseases that scientists have seen, and when the efficacy of the vaccines is reduced unless boosted. I understand that there is a lot of covid fatigue out there—but just remember to be smart and safe. The next 3-4 weeks can be a major turning point for covid in the US—-let’s do what we can to make this into a positive turning point and not a negative one.
Sand
Footballguy
Initial study of 78,000 in SA shows Omicron to be less virulent. Definitely preliminary, but I like the sample size. Not sure about the headline, but the data looks promising.
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Got my booster today. Pfizer x 3 now.
I feel like a bloated warthog. And my extremities are tingling. Weird. Otherwise going well.
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Got my booster today. Pfizer x 3 now.
I feel like a bloated warthog. And my extremities are tingling. Weird. Otherwise going well.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Don’t get me wrong, I think omicron is trouble regardless - if it as contagious as it seems, we’re still gonna have a lot of sick people. Locally I’ve noticed a big uptick in regeneron infusions, though hospitalization has not followed (yet).Very good point and I should have said that it was very early. Thanks for keeping us honest in here.
Certain data points lining up (Ie UK's 1.7 day doubling time / Denmark's 1.6 day doubling time) are a lot of smoke but definitely not confirmed fire yet.
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Insoxicated
I have a strong distaste for news articles that cite a study without providing a link to the raw study to review. I just woke so I may have missed it... there were several links in the article and I clicked most.
I have a REALLY strong distaste for articles who use absolutely reckless headlines such as that. Whoever wrote that headline surely knew that was going to stoke the anti-vax fires. Very irresponsible.
ALL THAT SAID, I do sincerely hope the outcome is as hypothesized... though I wonder about long term effects in these milder cases.
This article agrees with you. Even if not as deadly, the math of extra-contagiousness will cause massive spikes.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12/omicron-is-about-to-overwhelm-us.html
gianmarco
Footballguy
We are already seeing big census numbers and a significant portion of it due to Covid. Within the region for one hospital system, we have 30+ people waiting a prolonged time in the ER just for a bed to get out of the ER. 2/3rds of those are Covid+. The ICUs are full or very close to it. Treatment with monoclonal antibodies is being triaged due to supply.
And we are just getting started. This is not going to bode well for the next few weeks.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Omicron evades a two shot Moderna regiment with a 50 fold loss in effectiveness against infection. The booster brings it back up to the same effectiveness as against Delta.
You aren’t vaccinated against Omicron if you are 6 months after second shot (and probably sooner in some instances).
Those initial South Africa studies suggested prior infection combined with vaccination likely isn’t enough either.
You aren’t vaccinated against Omicron if you are 6 months after second shot (and probably sooner in some instances).
Those initial South Africa studies suggested prior infection combined with vaccination likely isn’t enough either.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
The Z Machine
Footballguy
If you wondered whether you should get a booster or not, this should be your motivation.
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belljr
Footballguy
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Philadelphia advises that large gatherings in the city be canceled.
My office, just outside of Philly in the NJ suburbs, is still planning on having its holiday party (attendance optional), but we’ll see if that holds.
My office, just outside of Philly in the NJ suburbs, is still planning on having its holiday party (attendance optional), but we’ll see if that holds.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I don't think this is right. I believe you still have significant protection vs hospitalization and death 6 months after your shots.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
I believe Pfizer was 42x less effective, but that again the booster brought it up to normal levels or protection. There a few articles out there.
These are all in-lab studies. Real world effectiveness could end up being better -- that was the case when they did similar tests on Delta. But it will remain proportional that 2 shots are less effective, and booster is fully protected.
Heard a rumor that NYC schools are going fully remote starting Monday and that all kids must be vaccinated to attend in person after January 1. Not sure its true. Two people told me. Dont see anything online. Things are about to get CRAZY. This in a city with 90% of adults with at least one shot and 72% fully vaxxed.
Its amazing how convenient this new variant worked out for Pfizer and Moderna just in the middle of a booster push.
Doug B
Footballguy
You guys are both right. The NPR article is right about the vaccine-induced circulating antibodies. Dinsy is right that memory B & T cells primed by earlier vaccination/infection will still be able to produce at least partially effective antibodies after a time lag.
The trick is that time lag. Having active circulating antibodies from a booster takes away that extra time that an Omicron infection to gain a foothold in someone's respiratory tissues. Otherwise, your memory B and T cells will take a day or two or three to ramp up antibodies, and that's extra time for Omicron to replicate in your body.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Not even being reported anymore. It was consistently well into the 90's, usually 95+% unvaccinated.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
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Insoxicated
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Can we re-open the COVID thread in the political forum as well as the "alternative" thread here in the FFA? The whole point of the political forum and the alternate thread was so that these two very good and very useful threads were not polluted.
Some people will scramble to get kids vaxxed. Some people will keep kids home. Some people may have to may alternative work arrangements. Schools will have to find resources for both in person and remote schooling. There will be tons of protests. It will be madness.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Oh, and here's another piece of information that is showing differently than before. Out of all Covid cases this week, looking at splits by age
<10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
60+
Those 7 splits are virtually identical at 14-15% for each age range. And 10% of those over 60 are from 61-70. Only 4% for those aged 70+. This is no longer a disease of the elderly. 30% of cases are in those under the age of 20.
<10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
60+
Those 7 splits are virtually identical at 14-15% for each age range. And 10% of those over 60 are from 61-70. Only 4% for those aged 70+. This is no longer a disease of the elderly. 30% of cases are in those under the age of 20.
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Witz
Footballguy
Hearing tons of people in NYC coming down with COVID recently (seeing it in NJ as well). Hopefully it’s just a minor speed bump. Be safe.
Jackstraw
Footballguy
Got a kid mid twenties at my work out with Covid and he is SICK. Throwing up, very high fever, coughing, short of breath, no taste and smell. The works. Unvaccinated.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I almost hesitate to bring this up, especially with the PSF Covid thread locked, but what should we infer from all of the in-team outbreaks in the NFL and other sports? If we assume that the vast majority of these athletes are vaccinated, that would suggest not just that there are breakthrough infections, but that vaccinated people are infecting other vaccinated people.
I can imagine certain posters will say this shows the vaccines are and always have been ####e, and hey, maybe that's the answer. It could also mean that Omicron really has achieved a level of vaccine breakthrough (although of course we don't know if all these infections even are from the new variant).
One factor I haven't heard discussed much: What if it reflects that many athletes got the one-shot J&J vax, so they are far more likely to get breakthroughs now? I can certainly see why that decision would have made sense; the messaging at the time was that all three vaccines provided roughly equal levels of protection, so I can imagine many athletes figured they were young and in excellent health, so why not do the minimum necessary to check the box.
Anyway, I'm mostly just noodling. I don't have any expertise in this stuff (but I would certainly love to hear what some of those who do have expertise think of my theory).
I can imagine certain posters will say this shows the vaccines are and always have been ####e, and hey, maybe that's the answer. It could also mean that Omicron really has achieved a level of vaccine breakthrough (although of course we don't know if all these infections even are from the new variant).
One factor I haven't heard discussed much: What if it reflects that many athletes got the one-shot J&J vax, so they are far more likely to get breakthroughs now? I can certainly see why that decision would have made sense; the messaging at the time was that all three vaccines provided roughly equal levels of protection, so I can imagine many athletes figured they were young and in excellent health, so why not do the minimum necessary to check the box.
Anyway, I'm mostly just noodling. I don't have any expertise in this stuff (but I would certainly love to hear what some of those who do have expertise think of my theory).
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Insoxicated
IMO It's a combination of things... and this is all purely speculation.
Much like the Yankee's outbreak, which were all J&J vaccinated players (at least initially), IMO part of it is a tendency of some players to gravitate toward J&J due to convenience of single shot, old-style vaccine technology (fear of mRNA vax), etc. The issue is, that jab is approaching worthless at this point. My completely unfounded theory is maybe teams like the Browns who are suffering bad breakouts now offered/favored the J&J option.
However part of it is likely also a combination of these guys being in close quarters for extended periods of time (Meetings, weight room, locker room, etc), and the highly transmissible nature of the Omicron variant. I had been previously thinking the surge of NFL positives last week was a canary in the coal mine for Omicron landing here.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I think you're on to something there. The fact that these breakouts have come all of a sudden halfway through the season certainly suggests that something changed, such as the arrival of a new more transmissible variant. And of course, pro athletes are tested far more often than the general population, which would explain why we're seeing the outbreaks there first.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
I agree, and I also think this is pretty compelling if anecdotal evidence for the proposition that this variant is way more transmissible than previous versions. It's really amazing how fast omicron took off after discovering it. (Obviously it was already widespread by the time South Africa found it but still).
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Can’t know without violating HIPAA, but the Regeron line at my hospital is running 10+ deep, which is unprecedented.The Z Machine said:
Covid admissions haven’t really picked up, but nearly all the ones I see or hear about are unvaccinated (the last number I saw was ~85% for hospitalized pt here).
belljr
Footballguy
So my wife watches whatever nbc news with whatever is name is and they are talking about the surge, how it's coming going to get worse blah blah.... They mention if you are boosted to "be careful" but don't stress too much. Basically have Christmas, travel to other people that are also boosted etc
All my wife took from the report is surge in cases!!!;. Sigh
All my wife took from the report is surge in cases!!!;. Sigh
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