*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (15 Viewers)

[[icon]]

Sorry been binging Dope Sick which is a true story

Oh hell... I could totally see how that would put you in that mindset. Our handling of Opioids was ####### insane. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Personal Prediction:

Peak Delta Confirmed Infections was 190k/day in August. 

My bet is we cross that by January 7th. 

What is your take on the severity of the new variant? 

 

[jobarules]

More and more keeps coming out that Omicron is less severe than Delta and generally leads to milder symptoms. I read 29% lower hospitalization rate than 2020 even when accounting for vaccination status. With the rapid pace it is spreading (the South Africa curve is insane to look at) this could be a blessing in disguise. Yes more will die, yes hospitals could become overwhelmed but it could be a real quick peak followed by a rapid decline. This could be the end of it at least I'm crossing my fingers it is.

 

[jobarules]

https://nypost.com/2021/12/16/omicron-infects-70-times-faster-than-delta-but-likely-less-severe-study/

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

I almost hesitate to bring this up, especially with the PSF Covid thread locked, but what should we infer from all of the in-team outbreaks in the NFL and other sports? If we assume that the vast majority of these athletes are vaccinated, that would suggest not just that there are breakthrough infections, but that vaccinated people are infecting other vaccinated people.

I can imagine certain posters will say this shows the vaccines are and always have been ####e, and hey, maybe that's the answer. It could also mean that Omicron really has achieved a level of vaccine breakthrough (although of course we don't know if all these infections even are from the new variant).

One factor I haven't heard discussed much: What if it reflects that many athletes got the one-shot J&J vax, so they are far more likely to get breakthroughs now? I can certainly see why that decision would have made sense; the messaging at the time was that all three vaccines provided roughly equal levels of protection, so I can imagine many athletes figured they were young and in excellent health, so why not do the minimum necessary to check the box. 

Anyway, I'm mostly just noodling. I don't have any expertise in this stuff (but I would certainly love to hear what some of those who do have expertise think of my theory).

A lot of athletes opted for JJ vaccine which was already not as effective. Those that got the mRNA are passed 6 months. They all need booster shots. You aren’t vaccinated really against Delta or Omnicron at this point without the booster. 

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

More and more keeps coming out that Omicron is less severe than Delta and generally leads to milder symptoms. I read 29% lower hospitalization rate than 2020 even when accounting for vaccination status. With the rapid pace it is spreading (the South Africa curve is insane to look at) this could be a blessing in disguise. Yes more will die, yes hospitals could become overwhelmed but it could be a real quick peak followed by a rapid decline. This could be the end of it at least I'm crossing my fingers it is.

Let’s hope. But that isn’t helping my wife’s aunt who has been in the hospital (not covid) and basically unconscious since Sunday and is getting bare minimum attention due to covid overload. 

 

[skol asylum]

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/omicron-update-dec-17?r=11t2p8&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

 

[[icon]]

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/omicron-update-dec-17?r=11t2p8&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Thank you for posting. I really need to subscribe. This is an amazing resource. 

Personal Prediction:

Peak Delta Confirmed Infections was 190k/day in August. 

My bet is we cross that by January 7th. 

Looks like my back of napkin math was correct if not conservative. TBH my original guess was going to be New Year's Day in two weeks. 
 

From YLE: 

"In the United States, the latest (Dec 14) projection is displayed below. Given CDC estimated 2.9% Omicron cases on Dec 11, which was up from 0.4% on Dec 4, models suggest that Omicron will start spiking case rates between Christmas and New Years. On a national level, we will probably peak in the second week of January."

We are still flying to Florida to visit family for Christmas, but We're bundling up with an N95 before we enter the airport and not taking it off (or even lowering it for food/drink) until after we exit the airport in Tampa. 

 

[belljr]

I flew to Florida last weekend.

We are driving over Christmas from NJ. 

a) because prices are insane

b) virus uptake

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/omicron-update-dec-17?r=11t2p8&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

thanks, was just coming to post that

another nugget that caught my eye:

For those without a booster, the first line of defense is down: neutralizing antibodies aren’t going prevent infection nor transmission of Omicron. However, T-cells should still keep a lot of people out of the hospital.

Those with boosters will be most protected. That’s because boosters restimulate the immune system and increase the number of antibodies. The more antibodies we have, the more they can find the the limited landing spots on Omicron. This will decrease breakthrough cases and decrease transmission.

Boosters also generate a much broader level of immunity. In other words, boosters develop antibodies against more parts of the virus than the primary series. A lab study yesterday confirmed. The authors noted:

“The antibody response after boosting is fundamentally different than it was before. It's not just raising the level of the existing antibodies, it's doing a lot more than that. Calling the third shot a booster is oversimplifying.”

 

[Doug B]

Boosters also generate a much broader level of immunity. In other words, boosters develop antibodies against more parts of the virus than the primary series. A lab study yesterday confirmed. The authors noted:

“The antibody response after boosting is fundamentally different than it was before. It's not just raising the level of the existing antibodies, it's doing a lot more than that. Calling the third shot a booster is oversimplifying.”

While I'm not doubting YLE just yet ... I am wondering how this can be, at least with mRNA boosters. mRNA vaccines make some of the body's cells specifically produce (initial strain?) SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins and then the immune system makes antibodies to attack those spike proteins.

How does another shot of an mRNA vaccine, then, elicit antibodies that target other parts of the virus besides the spike protein? Have the mRNA vaccine's actions been inaccurately described or oversimplified in laymen-level literature? There's a missing piece of the puzzle here.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

America Is Not Ready for Omicron - The new variant poses a far graver threat at the collective level than the individual one—the kind of test that the U.S. has repeatedly failed.

nothing new, study/data-wise, but good, but rather bleak, perspective

And even if Omicron is milder, greater transmissibility will likely trump that reduced virulence. Omicron is spreading so quickly that a small proportion of severe cases could still flood hospitals. To avert that scenario, the variant would need to be substantially milder than Delta—especially because hospitals are already at a breaking point. Two years of trauma have pushed droves of health-care workers, including many of the most experienced and committed, to quit their job. The remaining staff is ever more exhausted and demoralized, and “exceptionally high numbers” can’t work because they got breakthrough Delta infections and had to be separated from vulnerable patients, John Lowe told me. This pattern will only worsen as Omicron spreads, if the large clusters among South African health-care workers are any indication. “In the West, we’ve painted ourselves into a corner because most countries have huge Delta waves and most of them are stretched to the limit of their health-care systems,” Emma Hodcroft, an epidemiologist at the University of Bern, in Switzerland, told me. “What happens if those waves get even bigger with Omicron?”

The Omicron wave won’t completely topple America’s wall of immunity but will seep into its many cracks and weaknesses. It will find the 39 percent of Americans who are still not fully vaccinated (including 28 percent of adults and 13 percent of over-65s). It will find other biologically vulnerable people, including elderly and immunocompromised individuals whose immune systems weren’t sufficiently girded by the vaccines. It will find the socially vulnerable people who face repeated exposures, either because their “essential” jobs leave them with no choice or because they live in epidemic-prone settings, such as prisons and nursing homes. Omicron is poised to speedily recap all the inequities that the U.S. has experienced in the pandemic thus far.

Here, then, is the problem: People who are unlikely to be hospitalized by Omicron might still feel reasonably protected, but they can spread the virus to those who are more vulnerable, quickly enough to seriously batter an already collapsing health-care system that will then struggle to care for anyone—vaccinated, boosted, or otherwise. The collective threat is substantially greater than the individual one. And the U.S. is ill-poised to meet it.

.

.

.

Vaccines can’t be the only strategy, either. The rest of the pandemic playbook remains unchanged and necessary: paid sick leave and other policies that protect essential workers, better masks, improved ventilation, rapid tests, places where sick people can easily isolate, social distancing, a stronger public-health system, and ways of retaining the frayed health-care workforce. The U.S. has consistently dropped the ball on many of these, betting that vaccines alone could get us out of the pandemic. Rather than trying to beat the coronavirus one booster at a time, the country needs to do what it has always needed to do—build systems and enact policies that protect the health of entire communities, especially the most vulnerable ones. Individualism couldn’t beat Delta, it won’t beat Omicron, and it won’t beat the rest of the Greek alphabet to come. Self-interest is self-defeating, and as long as its hosts ignore that lesson, the virus will keep teaching it.

This sucks. Stay safe, y'all. 

 

[Doug B]

Yeah ... unfortunately, the U.S. as a whole can't do things for the collective good. Paradoxically ... that leads to more "me first" thinking -- "Everyone around me won't do small painless things to protect me, so I'm on my own!"

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

While I'm not doubting YLE just yet ... I am wondering how this can be, at least with mRNA boosters. mRNA vaccines make some of the body's cells specifically produce (initial strain?) SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins and then the immune system makes antibodies to attack those spike proteins.

How does another shot of an mRNA vaccine, then, elicit antibodies that target other parts of the virus besides the spike protein? Have the mRNA vaccine's actions been inaccurately described or oversimplified in laymen-level literature? There's a missing piece of the puzzle here.

The mRNA vaccine creates the spike protein.  The body makes the antibodies, and those antibodies could differ regarding which part of the spike protein they were created to attach to.  It makes sense that your body would make different ways to attack something, especially if you already have antibodies in your system.  The vaccine makes your body think that you are being overwhelmed by the virus, so your body is going hard -- which is why some of us feel so sick for a day or two.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

While I'm not doubting YLE just yet ... I am wondering how this can be, at least with mRNA boosters. mRNA vaccines make some of the body's cells specifically produce (initial strain?) SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins and then the immune system makes antibodies to attack those spike proteins.

How does another shot of an mRNA vaccine, then, elicit antibodies that target other parts of the virus besides the spike protein? Have the mRNA vaccine's actions been inaccurately described or oversimplified in laymen-level literature? There's a missing piece of the puzzle here.

I'd assume the latter. I tried to follow her link to read what she was quoting (that wasn't her quote, it was the study author) and see if it had any further details, but she linked to the wrong page. 

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Good news/bad news that I just saw:

Omnicron may be appearing as mild in South Africa due to vaccination and prior infection.  That is bad news for the unvaccinated because they still can get severely ill, and the "mild strain" headlines may have dissuaded people.

The good news is that this lends COVID to becoming endemic once we have more vaccine and infection antibodies in the population.  So that this really can become like  a flu season thing.

 

[Doug B]

The mRNA vaccine creates the spike protein.  The body makes the antibodies, and those antibodies could differ regarding which part of the spike protein they were created to attach to.  It makes sense that your body would make different ways to attack something, especially if you already have antibodies in your system.

Maybe she flubbed the explanation a bit.

If Dr. Jetelina had written that the antibodies can "learn" to attack the spike protein in different ways (e.g. some attack on the north side, some on the south, a few will try the east, etc.) ... then that would make sense. The spike protein is three-dimensional and has several (or even many?) "latch points" -- maybe one latch point is the easiest to "grab" and so most antibodies will get to that point first. But given time and increasing numbers of antibodies, more and more antibodies will grab other latch points, where it gets to the point where it doesn't matter if 70% of the antibodies grab for the same easy latch point because there are enough in that remaining 30% to go after other latch points.

I still don't understand how the mRNA vaccines can elicit antibodies against a part of the SARS-CoV-2 virion that the immune system has never seen (e.g. the capsule, or the RNA itself). But I'm willing to learn.

 

[belljr]

Here is still a big issue imo....  the messaging is all over the place. I live in a high vaccinated area along with many following mask protocols.

For example, I went to the car dealership today for my oil change and waited for it.  I had a coffee but wasn't thinking about my mask.  Most others were wearing them.  But signs still say if you are fully vaccinated you dont need a mask.  Other signs in the same place said not needed but recommended.   I was sipping on my coffee so I wasnt putting it up pulling it down.

GOt a couple looks but nothing really - its just awkward

 

[Doug B]

the messaging is all over the place.

As far as signs on business doors go, I don't go by those signs anymore. Throughout 2021, signs have gone up, come down, and gone back up again. And the signs you do see don't always say the same thing (everything from "Mask or Leave! Fight Me!" to "Wearing a mask would be really cool ... if you want ... no pressure.").

Personal ethic is to wear a mask at any indoor retail establishment. Goes triple for places where employees are required to mask (more personal ethic: if they have to wear one, I should too).

Even with that, I'm only in a mask maybe 4 hours a week -- and half of that time is two longish trips through grocery stores. Might be less than four hours ... depends on the errands I run. Don't have to wear a mask in the office (2x a week, thinly populated workspace).

 

[Dragons]

Maybe she flubbed the explanation a bit.

If Dr. Jetelina had written that the antibodies can "learn" to attack the spike protein in different ways (e.g. some attack on the north side, some on the south, a few will try the east, etc.) ... then that would make sense. The spike protein is three-dimensional and has several (or even many?) "latch points" -- maybe one latch point is the easiest to "grab" and so most antibodies will get to that point first. But given time and increasing numbers of antibodies, more and more antibodies will grab other latch points, where it gets to the point where it doesn't matter if 70% of the antibodies grab for the same easy latch point because there are enough in that remaining 30% to go after other latch points.

I still don't understand how the mRNA vaccines can elicit antibodies against a part of the SARS-CoV-2 virion that the immune system has never seen (e.g. the capsule, or the RNA itself). But I'm willing to learn.

I think this post of hers may help.

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/go-get-your-vaccine-especially-with

 

[jobarules]

Its gonna be really hard (impossible) to convince any remaining unvaxxed people to get vaxxed when all the reports about Omicron state that it evades vaccine immunity.

 

[Doug B]

I'd assume the latter. I tried to follow her link to read what she was quoting (that wasn't her quote, it was the study author) and see if it had any further details, but she linked to the wrong page. 

She quoted directly from Balazs Labs Twitter account, but erroneously inked to their website's home page.

However, that Twitter thread does show a pair of graphs at its head ("Wild type vs. Delta", "Wild type vs. Omicron"). Those graphs are on page 26 of Balazs Labs' preprint: "mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine boosters induce neutralizing immunity against SARSCoV-2 Omicron variant".

 

[Doug B]

I think this post of hers may help.

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/go-get-your-vaccine-especially-with

That explains it well, thanks. She writes:

First line of defense- Antibodies

Vaccines induce something called a “polyclonal response”. Basically, the vaccine instructs the body to generate numerous shaped antibodies that can connect to many different parts of the virus (see picture). Those antibodies are diverse in shape and cover the whole waterfront of the spike protein.

Mutations to those target sites raise the possibility that the vaccines would be less effective, not necessary that they won’t work at all. Some antibodies may not attach, some antibodies may not attach as tightly, but others will. We saw this with Beta (another Variant of Concern). There were far less places for the neutralizing antibodies to attach, but some still did.

Omicron has some of the same mutations as Beta and more. Even so, we hypothesize that there is still space for these antibodies to attach. That’s because of evolution competition. For the virus to survive, it has to change enough to outsmart our vaccines but cannot change enough where the virus’s key doesn’t fit at all. If the virus is still using the same door with Omicron (ACE2 receptors), then our antibodies can probably still recognize parts of that key.

That's about as good as it gets for a three-paragraph explanation for laymen

That means that in this morning's YLE article, Dr. Jetelina oversimplified a bit. She wrote:

In other words, boosters develop antibodies against more parts of the virus than the primary series.

... when she could have written:

In other words, boosters develop antibodies against more parts of the spike protein than the primary series.

I mean, yeah, technically "parts of the spike protein" ARE, indeed, "parts of the virus". It's just that as written, we can't tell how granular Dr. Jetelina was intending to get in her explanation.

 

[[icon]]

Its gonna be really hard (impossible) to convince any remaining unvaxxed people to get vaxxed when all the reports about Omicron state that it evades vaccine immunity.

At this point if they haven't been convinced, they likely won't be. Not really our problem at this point.

If they want to play chicken with this thing.. knock themselves out. Free country. 

If they want to spread anti-vax misinformation, however, I won't feel bad when they end up on HermanCainAward and hopefully serve as a lesson to others. 

 

[Doug B]

Its gonna be really hard (impossible) to convince any remaining unvaxxed people to get vaxxed when all the reports about Omicron state that it evades vaccine immunity.

Is it understood that vaccine immunity is not a pass/fail thing? The YLE piece to which Dragons just linked is gold.

 

[beer 30]

Its gonna be really hard (impossible) to convince any remaining unvaxxed people to get vaxxed when all the reports about Omicron state that it evades vaccine immunity.

Echoing what @[icon]said above, those that remain unvaccinated are probably not getting vaccinated regardless of the message. I look at them as the hardcore holdouts and as mentioned, good luck. This will work itself out one way or the other. She might not have started it but Mother Nature is undefeated, she'll sort this out for us.

 

[[icon]]

Has anyone found the Moderna Trial data for 50mcg / 100mcg / New Shot vs Omicron? I know they started this a couple weeks ago. 

 

[The Commish]

Its gonna be really hard (impossible) to convince any remaining unvaxxed people to get vaxxed when all the reports about Omicron state that it evades vaccine immunity.

At this point if they haven't been convinced, they likely won't be. Not really our problem at this point.

If they want to play chicken with this thing.. knock themselves out. Free country. 

If they want to spread anti-vax misinformation, however, I won't feel bad when they end up on HermanCainAward and hopefully serve as a lesson to others. 

Yeah, if they haven't been convinced by now, nothing's going to convince them.  Tons of reports out there that symptoms are mild at worst for those vaxxed in terms of Omicron.  I guess they don't understand that's not the case for the unvaxxed.  That sort of mental disconnect can't be fixed.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

The vax thing is very important in the sense that it does help to keep our health care systems in tact.  We want to do what we can to avoid overwhelming them. Much of the reason why the mortality rates of covid have dropped since the beginning of the pandemic is because the healthcare community has learned how to treat covid patients more effectively.  If the healthcare system gets overwhelmed and the quality of treatment drops as a result—things could get ugly fast. 

Also—with that said—while I’m a huge supporter of the vaccines—I’m a bigger supporter of people using common sense and awareness to do what they can to actually reduce and minimize the spread of covid altogether.   Even if omicron is milder—the fact of the matter is that the more covid spreads—the faster it learns new things—and the faster it mutates.  Each of the last two major variants (delta and omicron) have mutated to become exceedingly and exponentially more contagious. At the rate that omicron spreads—you can basically be guaranteed that it will be the breeding grounds for the next variants.  While highly infectious “mild covid” might not be super concerning to a lot of people on an individual level—don’t trick yourself into believing that it’s not concerning on a community level.  Distancing, masking, proper hand hygiene, staying away from others when you don’t feel right are vitally important. 

Also—my next statement is not to be confused as a motivation to go out there and start hoarding.  I want to make that crystal clear.  With that said—this new strain is so infectious and even the vaccinated are at pretty solid danger of getting sick—don’t be surprised if you have staff shortages and supply chain issues in the coming weeks. I would make sure that you are stocked up for a week or two of essential items that you and your family generally needs.  

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

FWIW, the person I've had a chance to talk to through the who pandemic that's connected to pretty much all of the scientists involved in COVID public policy e-mailed me out of the blue last night to tell me to get my oldest boosted.  That's the first time in the two years of COVID they've reached out to me on anything.

Suggested the gap in protection between boosted and not boosted is big and Omicron is about to be everywhere all at once -- essentially that most people who hasn't been infected yet are going to catch COVID.  And a ton of people who are vaxxed are going to catch it too, but with milder outcomes, on average.

They also agreed that while Omicron might be milder it's still an open question.  But even if it is milder, with the case loads we're about to see the impact at the national/societal level could be quite bad.  Potentially similar to the worst previous peak.

 

[The Z Machine]

Good news/bad news that I just saw:

Omnicron may be appearing as mild in South Africa due to vaccination and prior infection.  That is bad news for the unvaccinated because they still can get severely ill, and the "mild strain" headlines may have dissuaded people.

The good news is that this lends COVID to becoming endemic once we have more vaccine and infection antibodies in the population.  So that this really can become like  a flu season thing.

The issue when covid becomes endemic may be waning performance of immune response.  Let's hope that the memory T-cells or whatever can mount an effective attack without a crap ton of active antibodies coursing through us.

 

[jobarules]

Yeah, if they haven't been convinced by now, nothing's going to convince them.  Tons of reports out there that symptoms are mild at worst for those vaxxed in terms of Omicron.  I guess they don't understand that's not the case for the unvaxxed.  That sort of mental disconnect can't be fixed.

See the article I posted above. Hospitalizations are 29% lower in South Africa even when accounting for vaccinations. It seems like this is a milder variant overall because of how fast it replicates in the airways.

 

[[icon]]

Yeah, if they haven't been convinced by now, nothing's going to convince them.  Tons of reports out there that symptoms are mild at worst for those vaxxed in terms of Omicron.  I guess they don't understand that's not the case for the unvaxxed.  That sort of mental disconnect can't be fixed.

Only gonna spend so long staying behind trying to pull someone resisting being pulled out of a burning car before it's time to skedaddle and let nature take it's course.  

 

[The Z Machine]

See the article I posted above. Hospitalizations are 29% lower in South Africa even when accounting for vaccinations. It seems like this is a milder variant overall because of how fast it replicates in the airways.

This is pure supposition and wishful thinking IMO.  The data is not anywhere near compete on this topic. 

In that YLE article, this is the part that stood out to me: "Case counts are going to get very high. As high as our testing capacity can take."

The thought of cases being so high that it outstrips testing capacity is extremely troubling to me.

 

[jobarules]

This is pure supposition and wishful thinking IMO.  The data is not anywhere near compete on this topic. 

In that YLE article, this is the part that stood out to me: "Case counts are going to get very high. As high as our testing capacity can take."

The thought of cases being so high that it outstrips testing capacity is extremely troubling to me.

There is definitely good news and bad news in the article I posted.

 

[[icon]]

This is pure supposition and wishful thinking IMO.  The data is not anywhere near compete on this topic. 

In that YLE article, this is the part that stood out to me: "Case counts are going to get very high. As high as our testing capacity can take."

The thought of cases being so high that it outstrips testing capacity is extremely troubling to me.

Currently sitting on 16 At Home Tests (8x 2pks). 

Using 2 for the GF and I before travel to FL. Bringing enough to test the whole family (3 kits for Mom/Dad/Bro/SIL/2Nieces) and will have another kit for in a pinch.

We will be scheduling a PCR again the morning of our NYE gathering (5 couples - House "Party" dinner) where everyone will be tested the morning of. 

For the first time in the pandemic, I'm not confident I'll be able to avoid infection... but I'm still going to try. AND....  I'll be damned if I don't do everything I can to avoid passing it along if I get it. 

 

[beer 30]

For the first time in the pandemic, I'm not confident I'll be able to avoid infection... but I'm still going to try. AND....  I'll be damned if I don't do everything I can to avoid passing it along if I get it. 

Seems simple but...don't go 

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

The issue when covid becomes endemic may be waning performance of immune response.  Let's hope that the memory T-cells or whatever can mount an effective attack without a crap ton of active antibodies coursing through us.

Assume we will be getting vaccines every 6-18 months for a while.

Annnnnnd my wife just had to go pick up my 5yr old.  Another positive case at the school.

 

[Doug B]

Assume we will be getting vaccines every 6-18 months for a while.

I'm starting to wonder "Is there any good reason not to sanction quarterly booster shots for the duration?"

 

[The Commish]

Only gonna spend so long staying behind trying to pull someone resisting being pulled out of a burning car before it's time to skedaddle and let nature take it's course.  

I'm well beyond it....it's like that story of people dying, going to heaven and asking God why he didn't save them from the flood and his reply being "well, I tried sending you a life boat three different times".

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Currently sitting on 16 At Home Tests (8x 2pks). 

Using 2 for the GF and I before travel to FL. Bringing enough to test the whole family (3 kits for Mom/Dad/Bro/SIL/2Nieces) and will have another kit for in a pinch.

We will be scheduling a PCR again the morning of our NYE gathering (5 couples - House "Party" dinner) where everyone will be tested the morning of. 

For the first time in the pandemic, I'm not confident I'll be able to avoid infection... but I'm still going to try. AND....  I'll be damned if I don't do everything I can to avoid passing it along if I get it. 

I just ordered 4 more kits.

 

[Navin Johnson]

Yet you don't understand the article

Makes sense.  He claims to be an actuary as well, yet has no clue about variance.

 

[The Commish]

See the article I posted above. Hospitalizations are 29% lower in South Africa even when accounting for vaccinations. It seems like this is a milder variant overall because of how fast it replicates in the airways.

My comment should read "doesn't automatically mean the same thing for unvaccinated"....either way, I'm hopeful this thing is the sharpest of peaks because this country has demonstrated they can't do the right things.  So this needs to come and go on it's own as quickly as possible.

Of course, none of this goes to the main point that people not convinced by now can somehow be convinced in the future.  I'll go out on a limb and say that is untrue for 99.9999% of the people....minds are made up and lines are drawn....results/reality be damned.

 

[BobbyLayne]

What is your take on the severity of the new variant? 

Seems like that’s a pretty hit topic atm. Historically most viruses weaken as they mutate. But it seems like most public health orgs want to downplay the mild symptoms that often present. 

Omicron seems to be able to slip past our current vaccines. I’m vaxxed, boosted and had a mild Covid case Apr 2020. Honestly  terrified I’ll get it again & it will be much, much worse (as had been the case for just about every friend who has gone through it.)

 

[Harry Frogfish]

What home test kits do you guys suggest?

 

[Doug B]

What home test kits do you guys suggest?

The BinaxNOW test from Abbot is the only kind I ever see on sale around here. I've administered about a half dozen tests from home for my wife and son. Pretty easy to use and more accurate than commonly though IF a person has symptoms.

The only Achilles heel of the BinaxNOW home test is that it won't usually catch a very fresh infection when symptoms haven't started yet. It's simply not sensitive enough for that like a clinical PCR test would be.

I can't vouch for any other brands of COVID test -- not sure what's available for order online.

 

[yak651]

Live/work in North East WI.  Last year masking required at work, this spring they said mask optional if vaccinated.  All on honor system as they didn't want to press the issue.  Anyhow, maybe noticed a handful of people still wearing mask out of say 100 people.  Fast forward to this fall and we start to have 10-15 people per week out due to COVID or close contacts.  They have now reinstated required mask wearing except when eating/drinking or in closed office.  Last year it was minimal impact, I know many believe mask don't work but I think if they didn't require mask last year the results would've been like this.  Oh year, when the vaccine mandate info came out they asked people to upload their vaccination status in Kronos.  About a week ago HR reported only 35% of our workforce is vaccinated.  I thought it would be around 50%, I knew many unvaccinated not wearing mask when they "should" but find it funny leadership hasn't made more of a deal of how many people were violating the "honor policy" when that is one of our companies core values and I know many managers were violating this...When they got the statics they let everyone know that the mask policy would remain in effect until we are at least 60% vaccinated, more in line with the county averages we draw our workforce from.

 

[beer 30]

What home test kits do you guys suggest?

This is what I just used and result confirmed with a PRC test. Have no idea if it's a good test or not, was cheap and got it in 2 days.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B09KZ6TBNY?psc=1&ref=ppx_yo2_dt_b_product_details

 

[Doug B]

Has anyone found the Moderna Trial data for 50mcg / 100mcg / New Shot vs Omicron? I know they started this a couple weeks ago. 

Do you mean they're running a trial on an entirely new RNA packet? Basically, a new mRNA vaccine tailored to Omicron?

I hadn't heard a peep, but I'm interested.

 

[beer 30]

Live/work in North East WI.  Last year masking required at work, this spring they said mask optional if vaccinated.  All on honor system as they didn't want to press the issue.  Anyhow, maybe noticed a handful of people still wearing mask out of say 100 people.  Fast forward to this fall and we start to have 10-15 people per week out due to COVID or close contacts.  They have now reinstated required mask wearing except when eating/drinking or in closed office.  Last year it was minimal impact, I know many believe mask don't work but I think if they didn't require mask last year the results would've been like this.  Oh year, when the vaccine mandate info came out they asked people to upload their vaccination status in Kronos.  About a week ago HR reported only 35% of our workforce is vaccinated.  I thought it would be around 50%, I knew many unvaccinated not wearing mask when they "should" but find it funny leadership hasn't made more of a deal of how many people were violating the "honor policy" when that is one of our companies core values and I know many managers were violating this...When they got the statics they let everyone know that the mask policy would remain in effect until we are at least 60% vaccinated, more in line with the county averages we draw our workforce from.

You don't work for Sunbelt do you? Very similar numbers for us.