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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (18 Viewers)

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Not surprising at all that you'd spin it this way, but obviously I did nothing of the sort. Simply used an analogy to show that risk isn't binary, it's incremental.

See above, and you should look in the mirror.
I understand that you want to clarify — and I don’t think you intended to be inflammatory — but IMO it’s better to just move on.  This thread is too good and important.  Nobody wants it shut down, and going down this rabbit hole increases the odds.  Take it from someone who has made the same mistake more than once.

 
@Joe Bryant

Can you please consider re-opening the thread back up in the PSF? This thread has been invaluable until right around when that one was shut down, and most of us don't want it to see it reach the same fate especially when the next few weeks are going to be so impactful.

 
It's interesting so far in the 20 people I know that have covid this week, ALL 20 are fully vaxxed, none of had the booster, and none have had covid in the past. I don't know a single person with covid THIS WEEK that previously had Covid.

 
It's ALOT closer to a cold than Russian Roulette.
It was an inexact (but not inapt) metaphor to make a point -- a common everyday conversational gambit. He wasn't saying literally "It's Russian Roulette!!! Exactly as risky and dangerous as a one-in-six head shot!!! Exactly like that!!!"

Why harp on that?

 
For our resident medical experts, what do you think is causing spikes in hospitalizations in some areas? If omicron is supposed to be much less severe, is it possible the hospitalizations are still from the delta wave and the new cases are driven by omicron?

I'm in Maryland, where we have one of the highest vaccination rates in the country, yet hospitalizations have tripled over the last ~5 weeks to a level we haven't seen since January, pre-vaccines.

 
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Buddy of mine who is double-vaccinated but not boosted officially has Covid. Been laid up in bed for five-plus days now. Said it's "worse than the flu" and has really awful headaches.

I don't know for sure why he hadn't gotten boosted, but my guess from recent conversations with him is that he was just tired of it all. Covid fatigue. 

He thinks since he's not in the hospital (yet) that it doesn't matter that he didn't get boosted, never mind that his family is now exposed and never mind that he attended a fairly large indoor party just before his diagnosis. 

I'm guessing he either caught it at the party or already had it and potentially spread it around there.

I think we're going to find out about this whole herd immunity thing soon.

 
It was an inexact (but not inapt) metaphor to make a point -- a common everyday conversational gambit. He wasn't saying literally "It's Russian Roulette!!! Exactly as risky and dangerous as a one-in-six head shot!!! Exactly like that!!!"

Why harp on that?
Yet people harp on when I say it's a 3 day cold. 🤷‍♂️

 
For our resident medical experts, what do you think is causing spikes in hospitalizations in some areas? If omicron is supposed to be much less severe, is it possible the hospitalizations are still from the delta wave and the new cases are driven by omicron?

I'm in Maryland, where we have one of the highest vaccination rates in the country, yet hospitalizations have tripled over the last ~5 weeks to a level we haven't seen since January, pre-vaccines.
Omicron is more infectious so even if less severe it will lead to more hospitalizations

 
It's interesting so far in the 20 people I know that have covid this week, ALL 20 are fully vaxxed, none of had the booster, and none have had covid in the past. I don't know a single person with covid THIS WEEK that previously had Covid.
My daughter organized her college ski trip .... 1100 went, 450 got Covid (all tested by the college every day). 100% vaxxed, 75%+ boosted. Similar stories. Very few who had covid before got it again.

 
For our resident medical experts, what do you think is causing spikes in hospitalizations in some areas? If omicron is supposed to be much less severe, is it possible the hospitalizations are still from the delta wave and the new cases are driven by omicron?

I'm in Maryland, where we have one of the highest vaccination rates in the country, yet hospitalizations have tripled over the last ~5 weeks to a level we haven't seen since January, pre-vaccines.
1.  Sheer volume of cases.  So even with lesser percentages, it is made up for by the volume.

2.  Less severe for vaccinated.  Omicron is still going to be awful for those that aren't vaccinated yet even if it's less severe than other variants.  So, go back to #1.

 
My daughter organized her college ski trip .... 1100 went, 450 got Covid (all tested by the college every day). 100% vaxxed, 75%+ boosted. Similar stories. Very few who had covid before got it again.
Also all 20 people I know none of them had breathing problems! That's a great sign! Most complained about body aches and severe congestion, but slight cough and low fever.

 
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Does everyone with COVID-19 end up in the hospital?

Most people with COVID-19 have mild symptoms, but some people become severely ill. Some people including those with minor or no symptoms may suffer from post-COVID conditions — or “long COVID”. Older adults and people who have certain underlying medical conditions are at increased risk of severe illness from COVID-19.

Basics of COVID-19

https://www.cdc.gov › your-health › about-covid-19

 
@Joe Bryant

Can you please consider re-opening the thread back up in the PSF? This thread has been invaluable until right around when that one was shut down, and most of us don't want it to see it reach the same fate especially when the next few weeks are going to be so impactful.
:confused:   Link?

I haven't seen a single political reference in this thread lately.

 
Double vaxxed son (28) tested positive yesterday.  Had cough and headache, better today.

Will be interesting to see how I (thrice vaxxed), the Mrs (twice vaxxed) and younger son (25, had covid 13 months ago) each fare... 

 
jobarules said:
Also all 20 people I know none of them had breathing problems! That's a great sign! Most complained about body aches and severe congestion, but slight cough and low fever.
How many have developed long Covid?

 
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gianmarco said:
1.  Sheer volume of cases.  So even with lesser percentages, it is made up for by the volume.

2.  Less severe for vaccinated.  Omicron is still going to be awful for those that aren't vaccinated yet even if it's less severe than other variants.  So, go back to #1.
Yeah volume is definitely a factor, although we recently had a cyber attack and not all of the data has been restored still so hard to compare apples to apples on everything.

We do have 91% of 18+ and almost 85% of 5+ with 1 shot and 99.9% of seniors but that still leaves a lot of people if this is spreading like wildfire. 

Thanks.

 
Our positive cases is off the charts now. NJ.

While hospitalizations are up they are still only showing 47% icu and deaths are low.

I'm optimistic, we will see a sharp plunge and this will be behind us in 2022

 
humpback said:
@Joe Bryant

Can you please consider re-opening the thread back up in the PSF? This thread has been invaluable until right around when that one was shut down, and most of us don't want it to see it reach the same fate especially when the next few weeks are going to be so impactful.
No. Zero interest in starting that again.

For the thread here, we'll trust people are mature enough not to engage posters they need to not engage. No idea if this one will wind up as bad as the other with snark and insults and gets shut down too. That will be up to posters here. 

 
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UK are-infections going nuts. Safe to say natural immunity is effectively worthless: https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1474041921249189896?s=21

UK seeing Hospitalization Surge.. tripled vs one month ago: https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1473762997273337866?s=21

NYC Seeing Hospitalization Surge : increased 4x vs one month ago: 
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1473762505092743169?s=21

Omicron possibly only 2-12% milder: 
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1474027198763966515?s=21

Looking like the #justaflu bros might be wrong... again 

 
As much as MN was a hotspot a few weeks ago, it looks like we are on the downtrend. See chart, more data. In 2020, cases in MN actually peaked a week or two before Thanksgiving and trended downward until Easter-ish. This year is pretty similar, but appears to be peaking basically on Thanksgiving (best I can tell from that chart).  

Hospital usage is somewhat different. Peak ICU due to covid in fall 2020 was around 380 people, but it was at those levels for a relatively short time. Looks like it was above 300 in ICU for covid for about two months (its somewhat hard to tell in the charts on a smallish screen).

In fall 2021, it doesn't look like we quite reached fall 2020 levels, but the number of people in ICU for covid has been consistently high for several months. It's too early to say if the number of covid patients in ICU is coming down yet, but non-ICU covid hospitalizations is clearly on a downward trend. 

 
Doug B said:
It was an inexact (but not inapt) metaphor to make a point -- a common everyday conversational gambit. He wasn't saying literally "It's Russian Roulette!!! Exactly as risky and dangerous as a one-in-six head shot!!! Exactly like that!!!"

Why harp on that?


Way better to let those go and not try to win or have the last word on every single point. It's ok to not reply to things. 

 
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BeTheMatch said:
I think we're going to find out about this whole herd immunity thing soon.
At each peak I’ve had this thought but it ended up burning bright then fading - no clue what to expect here with new variant, reinfection and waning  immunity but we could see some staggering cases numbers - like 400-500k in a day.

 
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Keerock said:
Double vaxxed son (28) tested positive yesterday.  Had cough and headache, better today.

Will be interesting to see how I (thrice vaxxed), the Mrs (twice vaxxed) and younger son (25, had covid 13 months ago) each fare... 


GL GB - my wife is on day 9 of being sick and the rest of us (all vaxxed) have managed to avoid getting it.

We did just cancel my parents coming over tomorrow night.  Neither is in great health and haven’t felt well lately.  Sucks but I’d rather they not taking any chances.

 
Our positive cases is off the charts now. NJ.

While hospitalizations are up they are still only showing 47% icu and deaths are low.

I'm optimistic, we will see a sharp plunge and this will be behind us in 2022


https://twitter.com/YahooFinance/status/1474041926399803396

Monica Gandhi has been a great follow throughout this mess.

Omicron "is really amazingly less virulent, and it also peaks fast," Dr. @MonicaGandhi9 says. "It peaked quite quickly after about three weeks in South Africa, so it started here fast as well and we're thinking it will probably peak even before mid-January."
My name is not Monica

 
UK are-infections going nuts. Safe to say natural immunity is effectively worthless: https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1474041921249189896?s=21

UK seeing Hospitalization Surge.. tripled vs one month ago: https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1473762997273337866?s=21

NYC Seeing Hospitalization Surge : increased 4x vs one month ago: 
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1473762505092743169?s=21

Omicron possibly only 2-12% milder: 
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1474027198763966515?s=21

Looking like the #justaflu bros might be wrong... again 
I wouldn't say worthless.  Natural immunity from catching a previous strain aren't very effective, much like vaccines for a previous strain aren't very effective, in keeping you from catching the new Omicron.  Were people expecting it to be better?

 
UK are-infections going nuts. Safe to say natural immunity is effectively worthless: https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1474041921249189896?s=21

UK seeing Hospitalization Surge.. tripled vs one month ago: https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1473762997273337866?s=21

NYC Seeing Hospitalization Surge : increased 4x vs one month ago: 
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1473762505092743169?s=21

Omicron possibly only 2-12% milder: 
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1474027198763966515?s=21

Looking like the #justaflu bros might be wrong... again 
I'm fairly certain that Ding guy has been questioned for cherry picking data to promote his agenda, which seems to be doom clicks. Seen several legit sources have very different takes than his, which of course makes navigating the risk landscape really difficult.

Here's a UK epidemiologists take as of an hour ago which does a better, even handed update on the current UK situation IMO. Some good news, some bad, but with less panic. 

https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474072013987844106

 
We do have 91% of 18+ and almost 85% of 5+ with 1 shot and 99.9% of seniors but that still leaves a lot of people if this is spreading like wildfire. 
But those people are not spread out equally in the state.  There are places of high vaccination rates and pockets of low vaccination rates. 

Could be worse though...

 
I wouldn't say worthless.  Natural immunity from catching a previous strain aren't very effective, much like vaccines for a previous strain aren't very effective, in keeping you from catching the new Omicron.  Were people expecting it to be better?
2x mRNA Vaccines showed more effective aB levels than "infected immunity"  vs Omicron. 3x mRNA vaccines crush it. Shared a chart a while back if youd like to check out the source. 

Infected-immunity Does indeed seem to be borderline worthless vs re-infection via Omicron. 

 
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I'm fairly certain that Ding guy has been questioned for cherry picking data to promote his agenda, which seems to be doom clicks. Seen several legit sources have very different takes than his, which of course makes navigating the risk landscape really difficult.

Here's a UK epidemiologists take as of an hour ago which does a better, even handed update on the current UK situation IMO. Some good news, some bad, but with less panic. 

https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474072013987844106


That last paragraph is pretty important in that Link. 

 
2x mRNA Vaccines showed more effective aB levels than "infected immunity"  vs Omicron. 3x mRNA vaccines crush it. Shared a chart a while back if youd like to check out the source. 

Infected-immunity Does indeed seem to be borderline worthless vs re-infection via Omicron. 
That would also depend on when you were originally infected. If it was just last month, I'd think it would still provide good protection.

 
That last paragraph is pretty important in that Link. 
This one? 

"Which is not good news for the elderly & immune compromised. We can still hold onto hope that generally our immune systems - whether primed by boosters or infection or both - hold up against severe disease. If so, the evolution of Omicron may prove to be not so scary after all."

 
BeTheMatch said:
.

I don't know for sure why he hadn't gotten boosted, but my guess from recent conversations with him is that he was just tired of it all. Covid fatigue. 


Isn’t this a reason to get boosted??
 

15min appointment vs what’s he’s dealing with now. 

 
It also shows how hectic times have led to on-the-spot calls riddled with uncertainty. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the public, experts, and officials have made the best calls based on limited and sometimes contradicting information. That includes the rollout of the vaccines and now boosters, up to and including the basic structure of the original vaccine regimens.

This is why all the discussion and debate around boosters can seem so complicated and confusing: It really is complicated and confusing, even for the smartest experts out there. When everyone is working with limited data and hasty judgment calls, the answers aren’t going to be as concrete as anyone would like.

Sometimes that might lead people to move to be safe over sorry, approving boosters that may not have all the evidence for them just yet. “One of the challenges with this pandemic, but really any infectious disease, is you’re making decisions for now, but you’re also trying to anticipate things that could happen,” Jen Kates, director of global health and HIV policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told me.

On the flip side, it also means that we, collectively, could be — and probably are — making some wrong calls right now.

As Covid-19 has taught everyone by now, proper responses to pandemics require humility and flexibility. We’re going to need extra doses of both as the world figures out what to do about booster shots.

https://www.vox.com/22770682/covid-19-vaccine-booster-shots-policy-goal

 
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2x mRNA Vaccines showed more effective aB levels than "infected immunity"  vs Omicron. 3x mRNA vaccines crush it. Shared a chart a while back if youd like to check out the source. 

Infected-immunity Does indeed seem to be borderline worthless vs re-infection via Omicron. 
I would like to look at that.  Thanks.

 
But those people are not spread out equally in the state.  There are places of high vaccination rates and pockets of low vaccination rates. 

Could be worse though...
Sure, but everywhere is far more highly vaccinated than a year ago (when no one was), and hospitalizations are spiking even in highly vaccinated counties.

I just read that omicron only accounts for 40% of the cases sampled in Maryland, so no way of knowing what the driver is I guess. Once it takes over as the source of the vast majority of infections I guess we'll get our answer.

 
jobarules said:
Also all 20 people I know none of them had breathing problems! That's a great sign! Most complained about body aches and severe congestion, but slight cough and low fever.
I don't remember if this was ever proven conclusively, but I do recall some discussion a couple months back about the fact that all of the vaccines we have so far are delivered intramuscularly, which might mean they do a better job protecting the virus from colonizing the lungs, but not as good a job of protecting the nose and throat. According to this theory, that was why we were seeing a lot of breakthrough infections with cold symptoms among the vaccinated but not a lot of the serious lung issues. (It was also put forward as an argument for the development of intranasal spray boosters to supplement shots).

Anyone know what the current thinking is on that theory? @Terminalxylem @Doug B @Biff84

 
This one? 

"Which is not good news for the elderly & immune compromised. We can still hold onto hope that generally our immune systems - whether primed by boosters or infection or both - hold up against severe disease. If so, the evolution of Omicron may prove to be not so scary after all."
It's almost like some people are rooting for doom and gloom.

 
I don't remember if this was ever proven conclusively, but I do recall some discussion a couple months back about the fact that all of the vaccines we have so far are delivered intramuscularly, which might mean they do a better job protecting the virus from colonizing the lungs, but not as good a job of protecting the nose and throat. According to this theory, that was why we were seeing a lot of breakthrough infections with cold symptoms among the vaccinated but not a lot of the serious lung issues. (It was also put forward as an argument for the development of intranasal spray boosters to supplement shots).

Anyone know what the current thinking is on that theory? @Terminalxylem @Doug B @Biff84
Could be that plus Omicron replicating quicker in the airways

 
jobarules said:
It's interesting so far in the 20 people I know that have covid this week, ALL 20 are fully vaxxed, none of had the booster, and none have had covid in the past. I don't know a single person with covid THIS WEEK that previously had Covid.
I actually know someone who had covid last January who tested positive again about 5 days ago. She is super pissed because her daughter had covid last Christmas and now she has it this Christmas. She is unvaccinated as well. Recent covid cases I know of include 5 people who were vaccinated but overdue for a booster, 5 people who were unvaccinated and hadn't had it before and 1 person who had covid before and unvaccinated. We have couple more in our warehouse that I don't know their vaccination status. 

Seems like this strain is pretty contagious for pretty much everyone. I will say that the unvaccinated folks I know who got it had it worse than the folks I know who were vaccinated except for my brother (vaxxed) and his wife (unvaxxed). She is 10 years younger than him (60 & 50) and he had it worse than she did. The unvaccinated friend who has covid for the 2nd time had a rough go the 1st time she had it (ended up with an inhaler she would periodically use for the foreseeable future) and is knocked down again this time. Not hospital beat down, but definitely not mild or cold like symptoms.  

 
jobarules said:
It's interesting so far in the 20 people I know that have covid this week, ALL 20 are fully vaxxed, none of had the booster, and none have had covid in the past. I don't know a single person with covid THIS WEEK that previously had Covid.
Two of my good friends just tested positive for COVID for the second time within the last week.  Both double vaxxed Pfizer this summer with no booster. 

Zach: 32 M / case #1 May 2020 / Pfizer Jab #2 September / Symptomatically Positive #2 this past Friday. 

Belal: 45 M / Case #1 Oct 2020 / Pfizer Jab #2 April / Symptomatically positive #2 Sunday PM 

edit to correct B's case and jab date 

 
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