belljr
Footballguy
We are around 7% right now. Daily cases is still "high" 30 - 100k - Ro is down to.51
I say by Monday we'll be 3% 15-100K .45 - is my guesstimate
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
- Status
I say by Monday we'll be 3% 15-100K .45 - is my guesstimate
Dezbelief
Footballguy
It’s really going to depend on what path the virus takes. There’s a lot of talk that mild Omicron not really producing much lasting immunity. I’m hearing more and more people say they’ve had Omicron twice. So if Omicron-like variants continue to dominate, another round of mild infections might be in the future.James Daulton said:
If something Delta-like pops up next, who knows what the results will be but I wouldn’t count on a mild Omicron infection offering much protection.
The next few months seem very predictable - cases sink in most places and everyone overcorrects. Cases never really fall to low levels before the next wave hits and there’s even more resistance to bringing back even minor restrictions. Hospitals don’t really get much of a break and there’s a big push for the next booster led by the drug companies. April sounds about right.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
belljr
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
I've learned that I have to go through our state's department of public health website, too. Only they don't lay out positivity rates for the public (not that I've seen anyway). They do offer a large testing spreadsheet that you can download into Excel and manipulate to get testing data by parish, positive tests over total tests, etc.
The data is fairly aged -- it's organized by weeks starting Thursdays and ending Wednesdays. The latest test counts they have are from the week of January 20-26. The next set will be Jan 27 - Feb 2, but that's apparently not yet released.
Anyway, for the week of January 20-26, my parish was still just below 20% positivity rate (19.8%). I can futz around with the data to check whether that rate was higher in previous weeks and if there's a declining positivity trend going on. But not tonight.
belljr
Footballguy
I also use here as a second reference.
https://covidactnow.org/us/louisiana-la/?s=28931772
It's been pretty close to what our state reports
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Is there any increased risk on people who have sleep disorders? Specifically, narcolepsy is a rarer sleep disorder, but it's difficult to find much information (probably for that very reason). Are people who have this and then catch Covid at risk of a more severe outcome and/or long-term Covid symptoms or elevating their narcolepsy condition further?
Doug B
Footballguy
Found this, too, on Johns Hopkins site -- they show test positivity rate for the past week and the past month for the entire state of Louisiana. Though I'm unsure where they're data's coming from if the state health department website is a week-plus behind.
Anyway ... JHU says Louisiana's at 9.22% positivity over the past week, and 16.08% over the past month. So that represents a pretty heathy drop in the recent two weeks or so.
Anyway ... JHU says Louisiana's at 9.22% positivity over the past week, and 16.08% over the past month. So that represents a pretty heathy drop in the recent two weeks or so.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
That's too be expected. Maryland peaked at nearly 30% positivity right around New Years Day. It's now like 5%.
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Insoxicated
Science Mag Study:
Negligible difference in Protection of Moderna Omicron Specific Vax vs original recipe in monkeys.
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/omicron-boosters-and-original-antigenic-sin
oreprint link: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.03.479037v1
Lead paragraphs:
We've had some interesting vaccine news in the last few days, and it's worth a closer look. A team from the NIAID, Emory, Moderna (and others) has reported results in a primate model for an Omicron-targeted mRNA booster shot that they've been working on, and the numbers are. . .a bit surprising. Macaque monkeys were dosed twice, four weeks apart, with the standard Moderna coronavirus vaccine, and then 41 weeks later one group of them got a booster of the same shot, while another got a booster of the new one with an Omicron variant sequence. Subsequent tests for neutralizing antibody levels, B-cell expansion, and response to a challenge with the Omicron virus itself showed that there was no difference between the two treatments at all.
It's important to say right up front that both vaccine regimens did a strong job of protecting the test animals - strong enough that both groups of monkeys were pretty much completely protected in the lungs during the challenge study, which in its way makes comparison at that point a bit difficult (protection in the upper airway was strong, but less complete, as it is in humans). So I hope that people don't get confused as this news gets out into thinking that the Omicron-focused booster did nothing. It worked fine; it's just that it brought nothing extra compared to the regular booster. The animals showed waning antibody titers during the nine-month interval until the booster, and either one of the boosters brought those back up very strongly (and in fact to levels higher than they ever were). But that said, you'd have thought that there would have been some difference. After all, these vaccines are raising antibodies to a sequence of the viral spike protein, and Omicron has a whole list of mutations in that protein compared to Delta or the earlier variants, and these were incorporated into the sequence of this booster candidate. But with either booster, antibodies were raised with very similar specificities to the Spike protein's receptor-binding domain.
Negligible difference in Protection of Moderna Omicron Specific Vax vs original recipe in monkeys.
https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/omicron-boosters-and-original-antigenic-sin
oreprint link: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.03.479037v1
Lead paragraphs:
We've had some interesting vaccine news in the last few days, and it's worth a closer look. A team from the NIAID, Emory, Moderna (and others) has reported results in a primate model for an Omicron-targeted mRNA booster shot that they've been working on, and the numbers are. . .a bit surprising. Macaque monkeys were dosed twice, four weeks apart, with the standard Moderna coronavirus vaccine, and then 41 weeks later one group of them got a booster of the same shot, while another got a booster of the new one with an Omicron variant sequence. Subsequent tests for neutralizing antibody levels, B-cell expansion, and response to a challenge with the Omicron virus itself showed that there was no difference between the two treatments at all.
It's important to say right up front that both vaccine regimens did a strong job of protecting the test animals - strong enough that both groups of monkeys were pretty much completely protected in the lungs during the challenge study, which in its way makes comparison at that point a bit difficult (protection in the upper airway was strong, but less complete, as it is in humans). So I hope that people don't get confused as this news gets out into thinking that the Omicron-focused booster did nothing. It worked fine; it's just that it brought nothing extra compared to the regular booster. The animals showed waning antibody titers during the nine-month interval until the booster, and either one of the boosters brought those back up very strongly (and in fact to levels higher than they ever were). But that said, you'd have thought that there would have been some difference. After all, these vaccines are raising antibodies to a sequence of the viral spike protein, and Omicron has a whole list of mutations in that protein compared to Delta or the earlier variants, and these were incorporated into the sequence of this booster candidate. But with either booster, antibodies were raised with very similar specificities to the Spike protein's receptor-binding domain.
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fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Avoided this as an OR nurse doing consistent covid + patient surgeries for two years now. Tested positive today…..grrrrrrrr.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
What makes them worthless? Don’t they have value to the 4% who are testing positive? Or to the folks who can confirm that they are negative?
Relative to last month when we could have really used them they are useless. You can easily get a test at an urgent care now as opposed to a month ago when there were 4 hour lines and no test kits available on store shelves. Plus my sons school has sent him home with tests so we have a decent stash now. However, we are still waiting for the Federal tests.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
We got rid of even minor restrictions about nine months ago, never brought any of them back, and everything has been fine.
I know people get tired of hearing this, but I get the impression that folks walk around thinking that red states are all wind-swept wastelands of disease and pestilence where the living envy the dead. But it's just normal pre-pandemic life. We had a bump in people taking sick leave a few weeks ago, but that was true everywhere and it was never any big deal. I just can't relate to the nonstop pessimism anymore.
thanks for the advice!
gianmarco
Footballguy
Some of us have tried to point this out to you and others, but it's not about what's going on around you in your regular life. It's what was going on at hospitals across the country. If you aren't around it and you were lucky enough to not need medical care, then I understand why it seems like regular pre-pandemic life to you. And that's fine. But try to understand why some of us are saying it's not, red or blue state. Things were REALLY bad a month ago. Luckily numbers have plummeted here and in a lot of other places. Let's hope it stays this way for a while.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
gianmarco
Footballguy
I'm glad you're "okay" with it. I can tell you that it's anything but "okay". And it's anything but "a little hot". But ok.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Our hospital seems to be fine.
I was told last summer that our hospitals would collapse if we didn't respond forcefully to delta. We did nothing, and everything was fine. I was told this fall that our hospitals would collapse if we didn't respond forcefully to omicron. We did nothing, and everything was fine. I don't think I'm the only person who has tuned this sort of thing out. I'm open to revisiting this discussion when the next variant comes along, but for now this concern seems to be wildly exaggerated.
The Commish
Footballguy
By whom? Just curious. Are you saying your local officials warned of all these things? I thought you said everything around you has been back to normal for many many months. Something seems off here.
NYC hospitals did not come close to capacity during the Omicron wave. Im sorry a few people on FBGs had a rough time at their specific hospital but Im not sure how anything we couldve done in NY would have impacted someone's personal workspace in Hawaii or whatever hospital someone in FBG works in.
belljr
Footballguy
I'm not trying to argue but our ICUs never got above 65% capacity and we maxed at 6600 patients
Our highest county was 80% capacity (20% due to covid)
ETA: we did have a couple individual hospitals hit 93%
ETA#2: We are also like 85% vaccinated at this point
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IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
People in this thread.
Every time somebody points out that the situation on the ground today is radically different than it was in March 2020, the same 3-4 people chime in with the same story about how hospitals are all five minutes away from collapse. It seems like if that were really the case, then I should be seeing it in my corner of the world -- we're doing literally nothing at all to slow down covid-19 right now. But everything is fine. And it's not like I live in some magical land of milk and honey. Huge swaths of the country have adopted the same do-nothing approach and they seem to be just fine too.
Obviously I understand that our health care resources are finite, and there is actually a point at which a pandemic will overwhelm them. That's why I supported all this stuff two years ago, but not now.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
Ah...there's the disconnect. It's probably wise to understand that a great bit of the conversation in these threads (if not all) are "generally speaking" and at the country level at best. Of course there are patches of the country that aren't seeing any of the terrible conditions and you folks should consider yourselves lucky. Even here in Florida, for the ####show it's been, it's not been as bad as other areas. We've been in the middle...upper 60ish% of severity.
I think it'd be rather wise, for all of us, to remember perspective here. On one hand it's absolutely true that the vaccine situation is completely different. The variant situation is also completely different. Hospitals have finite resources, so to them, it doesn't matter if it's 1000 people in the hospital because severity higher and the spread not as easy or if it's 1000 people in the hospital because severity is low but tons more people are catching it. It's 1000 people to them either way. And there are obviously some areas where it doesn't matter one way or the other because the hospitals aren't overrun to begin with.
The Commish
Footballguy
Yeah....I was just trying to figure out the disconnect. It seems that IK was looking at his local situation and saying, "well that's not how it's going at all. You guys need to get a grip". We all need to remember our personal experiences shouldn't be extrapolated to the entire country and we need to qualify our comments to make clear the context we are talking about....all of us.
Nope its the complete opposite. People (including me) are only focused on their immediate areas and definitely not country level. As IK said, the same 4 people keep telling us how HORRIBLE hospitals were during the Omicron wave and that is simply not true across the country. Not bad in South Dakota. But also not bad in NY, not bad in NJ, not bad in FL. These aren't exactly podunk areas we are talking about. Its basically just noise at this point "Oh why dont you think of me". The boys who cried wolf.
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The Commish
Footballguy
Then I am giving IK more credit than he deserves because that means he's intentionally conflating things and that's not his MO. Yeah...It was plenty "bad" here. Our cases were double what they were with Delta and hospitalizations were on par with the highest levels of hospitalizations we had in July 2020. This strand was definitely more mild, but twice as many people were catching it resulting in very little meaningful change from a hospital perspective. The only time worse for hospitals in this state was Delta.
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The Commish
Footballguy
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Yes, a few.
It's a small-ish town, and everyone's social circles overlap in odd ways. I'm friends with a guy in Chemistry whose wife is a nurse in the local hospital. Her husband is a doctor, who was also my personal doctor until he retired last year. We all go to the same church, and my wife is friendly with the nurse and her doctor husband.
I know a handful of other people who are connected to the hospital and medical center somehow, but not as well as those two.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
In HI, omicron cases were exponentially worse than previously, and hospitalized patients reached 80-90% of the worst days of the pandemic. Entire hospital wards needed to be repurposed, a tent erected outside the ER for lack of beds, and elective procedures delayed. Again.
In my mind, this should never be an acceptable “normal”, or green light to remove all remaining restrictions (basically masks in public places). Not sure why others feel differently, but it’s hard to reconcile with my experience, which is hardly unique.
Doug B
Footballguy
Kind of related to this morning's discussion:
For those who believe that mainstream media generally spins a narrative about things ( not to say outright fabulation, just a consistent singular stance ) ... CNN is starting to report about COVID in a way that seems to be preparing the country for an "it's all over" stance.
Every morning this week, CNN was doing a full-court press of coverage on the states that are breaking away from the CDC's masking guidance (e.g. NJ, NY, CA, etc. as discussed in this thread in recent days). Yesterday morning, they put on Dr. Leana Wen -- who's kind of the steersman for the network's "official" COVID stance -- and she's now saying the CDC needs to update their public masking guidance post-haste because the individual state's guidance is going to leave the CDC behind and further crater their credibility.
There was no mention of case counts. Nothing about "well, it might be OK in some places, but over here they're getting hammered with cases." Nothing more about hospitals being slammed -- instead, it's now that hospitals are generally easing up.
This week's morning coverage on CNN has been laser-focused on the lifting of state-level mask mandates in some places, and what that was going to mean in the immediate future for the continued salience of the COVID pandemic on the American psyche. It was really sounding like CNN was just beginning to turn the page. Not all at once, of course -- this kind of thing will take place over a period of months, I'm sure. All the same, a loosening of the grip seems apparent.
For those who believe that mainstream media generally spins a narrative about things ( not to say outright fabulation, just a consistent singular stance ) ... CNN is starting to report about COVID in a way that seems to be preparing the country for an "it's all over" stance.
Every morning this week, CNN was doing a full-court press of coverage on the states that are breaking away from the CDC's masking guidance (e.g. NJ, NY, CA, etc. as discussed in this thread in recent days). Yesterday morning, they put on Dr. Leana Wen -- who's kind of the steersman for the network's "official" COVID stance -- and she's now saying the CDC needs to update their public masking guidance post-haste because the individual state's guidance is going to leave the CDC behind and further crater their credibility.
There was no mention of case counts. Nothing about "well, it might be OK in some places, but over here they're getting hammered with cases." Nothing more about hospitals being slammed -- instead, it's now that hospitals are generally easing up.
This week's morning coverage on CNN has been laser-focused on the lifting of state-level mask mandates in some places, and what that was going to mean in the immediate future for the continued salience of the COVID pandemic on the American psyche. It was really sounding like CNN was just beginning to turn the page. Not all at once, of course -- this kind of thing will take place over a period of months, I'm sure. All the same, a loosening of the grip seems apparent.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
It would be interesting to hear their thoughts, though I suspect one’s perspective will always be skewed by the small town versus urban experience. And that ignores differences between states. It’s a microcosm of our political divide, as we really live in different worlds.
OK can someone tell me how this makes sense? Seriously
https://nypost.com/2022/02/09/ny-gov-kathy-hochul-will-drop-business-mask-mandate/
NY lifting mask mandates due to drop in Omicron cases but keeping them in place for schools (for now) where children are the least vulnerable part of the population AND have a lower positivity rate in schools (under 1%) vs overall (under 4%).
This is why people get mad. There is no science being followed here. NONE.
https://nypost.com/2022/02/09/ny-gov-kathy-hochul-will-drop-business-mask-mandate/
NY lifting mask mandates due to drop in Omicron cases but keeping them in place for schools (for now) where children are the least vulnerable part of the population AND have a lower positivity rate in schools (under 1%) vs overall (under 4%).
This is why people get mad. There is no science being followed here. NONE.
You've ignored others experiences when they differ from yours. I already said a family member of mine who's a nurse said the ER was overwhelmed with people coming in with the sniffles during the Omicron wave and you (and others) thought I was lying.
The Commish
Footballguy
Yeah....my view of our "media" outlets might seem a bit extreme to people, but I think every single one of our 24/7 news "outlets" should be banished out to sea and forced to only listen to each other for ever and ever. It's a completely useless complex that no one should be consuming in it's current state.....my opinion of course.
Fauci says pandemic almost over
https://nypost.com/2022/02/09/fauci-says-full-blown-covid-19-pandemic-is-almost-over-in-us/
https://nypost.com/2022/02/09/fauci-says-full-blown-covid-19-pandemic-is-almost-over-in-us/
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
He also didn't give a timeline. But based on current trajectory, hopefully we are approaching that 10,000 cases per day threshold in 4 weeks, given how much infection and vaccination there is?
jamny
Footballguy
The doctors on Fox News, Marty Makary in particular, have been more level headed, realistic and ahead of the curve throughout this entire thing than many other of the panicked, over reactive media "experts" Most of their opinions became acceptable in the mainstream months later.
jamny
Footballguy
Because of the effects on community spread. In most businesses you’re not spending 6-8 hours in close contact with others. Your having momentary interactions. In schools, the kids are around each other all day. It’s not about the kids individually risk or the positivity rate in the schools - it’s about the risk of further outbreaks at schools leading to an increase in community transmission which is more likely than it happening in regular business settings.
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